Oil Market Report

Last chance for a diplomatic solution?

8 MARCH 2012

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market

From a crude oil market balance perspective the outlook is clearly price positive. Generally, growth in demand looks set to continue increasing faster than supply, providing the basis for our bullish underlying market view. However, given the current elevated geopolitical risk and widespread supply disruptions we see good reasons to justify, albeit temporarily, adopting an even more positive position. We therefore revise our Q1 and Q2 average price forecasts upward from $110/b to $120/b and from $110/b to $115/b, respectively. We maintain our corresponding Q3 and Q4 estimates of $115/b and $120/b. Consequently, we forecast a full year average oil price of $118/b. Our projection is generally conservative due to the unpredictability of the geopolitical risk premium and the potential negative growth effects of high oil prices. The recent rapid accumulation of speculative positions could also drive prices lower if positive sentiment associated with improvements in the macroeconomic environment deteriorates and speculators rush to close these positions. Such a risk should not be ignored. However, for now, risk appears skewed to the upside. The oil market is extremely nervous and has already shown its ability to rally strongly on additional supply threats. Since the European embargo against Iranian crude oil was agreed in late January Brent crude has rallied strongly, also helped by more bullish general macroeconomic sentiment. The immediate ban on new contracts and the cancellation of old ones from July 1 has clearly exerted additional pressure on market balance expectations while further stimulating what was initially a demand driven rally as consumers race to secure supplies. So far the IEA has remained silent regarding the release of strategic petroleum reserves. Most logically, this should occur when the embargo takes full effect this summer. Efforts are now being made to re-launch negotiations with Iran following a year-long impasse, although it is probably too optimistic to expect significant developments from talks scheduled to begin in April. Nevertheless, they probably represent a chance of securing a diplomatic solution. Considering the wide range of supply issues operating at present, the Iranian embargo comes at a very bad time for consumers. Supplies from South Sudan, Syria and Yemen have decreased, Libya has not yet restored its pre-war capacity while unrest remains widespread in both the MENA region and Nigeria. In addition, North Sea deliveries continue to disappoint. In total, hundreds of thousands of barrels are absent from the market. When Saudi Arabia replaces currently embargoed Iranian oil, reserve capacity will once again stand at even more uncomfortably low levels, leaving the oil market with only a very limited buffer in the event of further supply disruptions or an additional improvement in global growth expectations.

Crude oil price

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2
20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 o 9 kt-0 o 0 kt-1 o 1 kt-1 a r-0 p 9 a r-1 p 0 a r-1 p 1 ju 9 l-0 ju 0 l-1 ja -1 n 0 ja -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1

N EXW I YM T IC B n E re t

6 5

global IEA global crude oil demand estimates

(mb/d)
9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 7 9 ja -0 n 9 ja -1 n 2

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

oil Monthly global crude o il demand estimates

2011 (mb/d) 89.1 87.90 87.82 Revision (kb/d) +100 -30 -20 2012 (mb/d) 89.9 88.96 88.76 Revision (kb/d) -150 -290 -140

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast

($/b) 2012 2013 Q1 120 Q2 115 Q3 115 Q4 120 Full Year 118 120

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
Crude oil price
(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)
10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 N EXW I YM T IC Bre t E n

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)
1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 IC Bre t E n N E WI YM X T

Brent futures curve

(ICE, $/b)
16 2 14 2 12 2 10 2 18 1 16 1 14 1 12 1 10 1 18 0 16 0 14 0 12 0 10 0 9 8 9 6 9 4 ja -1 n 3 ja -1 n 4 ja -1 n 5 ju 2 l-1 ju 3 l-1 ju 4 l-1 a r-1 p 2 a r-1 p 3 a r-1 p 4 o 2 kt-1 o 3 kt-1 o 4 kt-1 1 -0 -0 2 1 6 1 -0 -0 2 2 7 1 -0 -0 2 3 7

WTI futures curve

(NYMEX, $/b)
19 0 18 0 17 0 16 0 15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 ju 2 l-1 ju 3 l-1 ju 4 l-1 o 2 kt-1 o 3 kt-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 3 ja -1 n 4 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 2 a r-1 p 3 a r-1 p 4 a r-1 p 5 1 -0 -0 2 1 6 1 -0 -0 2 2 7 1 -0 -0 2 3 7

a r-1 p 5

ja -1 n 6

ju 5 l-1

a r-1 p 6

o 5 kt-1

ju 5 l-1

o 5 kt-1

ja -1 n 6

Speculative positions WTI

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)
400 500 400 000 300 500 300 000 200 500 200 000 100 500 100 000 500 00 0 -5 0 0 00 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 So h rt Ln og Nt e

Benchmark spreads
(daily closing)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

W I m u Bre t T in s n Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

a r-1 p 6

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
38 0 37 0 36 0 35 0 34 0 33 0 32 0 31 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d
c

OECD total industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
2800 2775 2750 2725 2700 2675 2650 2625 2600 2575 2550 2525 2500 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2011 5 year av erage

5 yea a era r v ge 20 11 20 12

OECD Europe industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
1020 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 890 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2011 5 year av erage

OECD North America industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
1400 1375 1350 1325 1300 1275 1250 1225 1200 1175 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2011 5 year av erage

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks

(mb, monthly data)
465 460 455 450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 385 380 375 j f 5 year range, top 5 year range, bottom 2011 5 year av erage

OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 40 O PEC 2 p d ctio -1 ro u n 300 20 O PEC 1 p d ctio -1 ro u n

300 00

200 80

200 60

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

ja -0 n 8 m r-0 a 8 m j-0 a 8 ju 8 l-0 se -0 p 8 n v-0 o 8 ja -0 n 9 m r-0 a 9 m j-0 a 9 ju 9 l-0 se -0 p 9 n v-0 o 9 ja -1 n 0 m r-1 a 0 m j-1 a 0 ju 0 l-1 se -1 p 0 n v-1 o 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 1 ju 1 l-1 se -1 p 1 n v-1 o 1 ja -1 n 2

200 40

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets

The higher the crude oil price, the more it depresses end consumer demand. Of course, in local currency terms the price of oil and oil products relative to 2008 highs varies, with Europe particularly badly affected. Consumers are aiming to avoid buying as long as possible while hoping prices will decrease once again. For this and other reasons including negative economic growth, soft heating demand and normal seasonal weakness affecting several products, Europe possesses a relatively bearish total demand outlook. One of only a few supportive factors for the market balance is the string of refinery shutdowns that may become a bullish issue should demand recover again, e.g. if consumers are forced to restock or secure supplies as the Iranian embargo impacts fully. Following positive developments in refinery economics since December last year, the February crude oil rally had a negative impact although the situation is well short of the position late last year. Meanwhile the structural shift in refining capacity eastwards continues as the OECD share of global oil consumption continues to decrease both in absolute and relative terms. Light ends: The light end of the barrel has continued to rally to currently trade near early 2011 highs while cracks have moved sideways over the last month. The relatively tight Asian naphtha market requires inflows from other regions during spring refinery maintenance, with a correspondingly supportive impact on the European market. Tight market conditions are also reflected in strong Asian demand for light crude oil qualities. The gasoline market is weaker as volumes of winter specification remain unsold at the same time as the market is beginning to demand its summer counterpart. While the naphtha market appears relatively well supported over the next month, a gasoline improvement is unlikely to occur until the driving season gets under way. Middle distillates: Currently, the middle of the barrel is weakest. Prices have been rising alongside crude but not by enough to prevent the cracks from falling back. Jet fuel demand is seasonally low and as temperatures are fairly high heating demand is generally depressed. We see no signs of the much-feared diesel shortage, with demand weak and inventories more than satisfactory. At present, it is difficult to envisage any specific potential catalysts in middle distillates. Heavy ends: While the low sulphur fuel oil crack has held up well, its high sulphur counterpart has continued to fall back. Asian demand for HSFO remains healthy although it is now significantly weaker than earlier this year. Consequently, the LS-HS spread has blown apart after achieving near parity. However, at least for now, there appear to be insufficient tankers to transport cargoes from Europe to Asia, which may restrict the European HSFO market temporarily.

light European light end benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 Je fu l t e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 ) 60 0 N p th ah a G so e a lin

middle European middle distillate benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5

European fuel oil benchmarks

($/t, daily closing)
70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 45 7 40 5 45 2 40 0 35 7 30 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
gasoline US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 2 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 2

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 G so e a lin H a go e tin il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 1 2 0 -2 1 a g 0 7 0 1 v. 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d 21 02

and ICE Gasoil an d European premiums to Gasoil

($/t, daily closing)
10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) J t fu l p m m (rig t) e e re iu h D se 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie l 0 p re iu h 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0

European product cracks

($/b, daily closing)
3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o kt-1 0 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o kt-1 1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 -2 5 N p th ah a J t fu l e e L w su h r fu l o o lp u e il D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so e a lin G so 0 % a il .1 H h su h r fu l o ig lp u e il

low high European low - h igh sulphur fuel oil differential

($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
3Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M a in s) U (W I) S T Eu p (Bre t) ro e n Pe n G lf (D b i) rsia u ua

European naphtha stocks

(kt, monthly data)
10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoline stocks

(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

European jet fuel stocks

(kt, monthly data)
90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 j f m

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

European gasoil stocks

(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 j f

European fuel oil stocks

(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,5 5 1 ,3 5
9,5

US implied gasoline demand

(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9,7

1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,5 4 1 ,3 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,5 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d
8,5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 9,3

9,1 5 a g. y v 2 011 2 012

5 ag y v. 21 01 21 02

8,9

8,7

US implied distillate demand

(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 5y av g. 2011 2012

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

($/t, daily closing)
20 15 10 5 0

4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2

-5 -10 -15 -20

n v-1 o 1

fe -1 b 1

m j-1 a 1

o 1 kt-1

se -1 p 1

d c-1 e 1

m r-1 a 1

ju -1 n 1

ag 1 u -1

a r-1 p 1

fe -1 b 2

-25

ja -1 n 1

ju 1 l-1

ja -1 n 2

4,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York

($/t, daily closing)
20 H eating oil/G asoil 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 J fuel/Kerosene et

n v-1 o 1

fe -1 b 1

m r-1 a 1

m j-1 a 1

fe -1 b 2

-25

ja -1 n 1

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

m r-1 a 2

o 1 kt-1

a r-1 p 1

ju 1 l-1

se -1 p 1

ag 1 u -1

d c-1 e 1

ju -1 n 1

ja -1 n 2

m r-1 a 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets

US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

UK natural gas price

(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 10 40 30 20 50 $/M Btu (left axis) M G Bp/therm (right axis) 90 80 70 60

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Nordic power price

(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

Continental power price

(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6

21 02

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index

(price index, weekly closing)
1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

JPM global manufacturing PMI

(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 U S E ro n u zo e C in h a R fe n e re ce

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Regional industrial production growth

(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a

21 02

OECD composite leading indicators

(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
15 0 14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

21 01

m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 C in h a Eu zo e ro n O D EC U SA R fe n e re ce

10

21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER & CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE

The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, a division within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (SEB). Opinions contained in this report represent the banks present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Anyone considering taking actions based upon the content of this document is urged to base his or her investment decisions upon such investigations as he or she deems necessary. This document is being provided as information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents. SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a participant at major Nordic and other European Regulated Markets and Multilateral Trading Facilities (as well as some non-European equivalent markets) for trading in financial instruments, such as markets operated by NASDAQ OMX, NYSE Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Brse, Swiss Exchanges, Turquoise and Chi-X. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden; it is authorized and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and is subject to the provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB conducts operations. SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

SEB Commodity Research

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

11

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