To understand the Random variable: Discrete and

Continuous variables
Mean and Spread of a probability distribution
Theorem on Expectation E(X) & Variance V(X)
Probability distributions for discrete random
variables: Binomial and Poisson Distributions
A random variable is a numerical measure
of the outcome from a probability
experiment, so its value is determined by
chance. Random variables are denoted
using letters such as X.
A discrete random variable is a random
variable that has values that has either a
finite number of possible values or a
countable number of possible values.
A continuous random variable is a random
variable that has an infinite number of
possible values that is not countable.
 Distinguish Between Discrete and Continuous
Random Variables
Determine whether the following random variables are
discrete or continuous. State possible values for the
random variable.
a) The number of light bulbs that burn out in a room
of 10 light bulbs in the next year.
b) The speed of a car
c) Height of people in a population
d) The concentration of a chemical in a water sample
 We use capital letter , like X, to denote the
random variable and use small letter to list the
possible values of the random variable.
Example. A single die is cast, X represent the
number of pips showing on the die and the
possible values of X are x=1,2,3,4,5,6.
A probability distribution provides the
possible values of the random variable and
their corresponding probabilities.
A probability distribution can be in the
form of a table, graph or mathematical
formula.
The table below shows the probability distribution
for the random variable X, where X represents the
number of cars a person rents from a Xcellent
Rental Motors Co Ltd during a single visit.
 Identifying Probability Distributions

Is the following a probability

distribution?
0.16 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.10 + 0.3 + 0.01= 0.97 < 1
Not a probability distribution
 Identifying Probability Distributions
Is the following a probability distribution?
0.16 + 0.18 + 0.22 + 0.10 + 0.3 + 0.04 = 1
It is a probability distribution
A probability histogram is a histogram in
which the horizontal axis corresponds to
the value of the random variable and the
vertical axis represents the probability of
that value of the random variable.
 Drawing a Probability Histogram
Draw a probability histogram of the following
probability distribution which represents the
number of cars a person rents from XA Rental
Co Ltd during a single visit.
 Probability Distribution

0.7
x Pr
0.6 0 0.06
0.5 1 0.58
probabilities

0.4
2 0.22
3 0.1
0.3

0.2

0.1
4 0.03
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
5 0.01
random variable values
 Computation of Mean of a Discrete Random Variable
Compute the mean of the following probability distribution
which represents the number of cars a person rents from
Xcellent Rental Co Ltd during a single visit.
 Mean = E(X) = x . P [X = x]

0*0.06+1*0.58+2*0.22+3*0.1+4*0.03+5*0.01

= 1.49
The following data represent the number of cars rented by 100
randomly selected customers in a single visit. Compute the
mean number of cars rented.
 x1 x2 ... x100
X 1.49
100
 Variance (VAR) and Standard Deviation (SD)
Compute the variance and standard deviation of the
following probability distribution which represents the
number of cars a person rents from a XA Rental Co Ltd
during a single visit.
 Variance

=(0-1.49)^2*0.06+ (1-1.49)^2*0.58
+(2-1.49)^2*0.22+(3-1.49)^2*0.1
+(4-1.49)^2*0.03+(5-1.49)^2*0.01
=0.8699

Standard Deviation = 0.932684

Var (X) = E(X2) [E(X)]2

Standard Deviation of X = Sqrt [ Var (X) ]

1. If a is any real number then E(a X) = a E(X).
2. If X and Y are random variables then
E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y).
3. If X and Y are independent variables then
E(XY) = E(X) E(Y).
4. If K is a constant E(K) = K.
5. E(3X2 2X + 1) = 3 E(X2) 2 E(X) + 1
1. If K is a constant
Var (KX) = K2 Var(X)

2. If X and Y are independent variables

Var (X + Y) = Var (X) + Var (Y)
Var (X Y) = Var (X) + Var (Y)

3. If a and b are real numbers

Var (aX b) = a2 Var(X)
 X 0 1 2 3 4

Probability 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

1. Find the Mean and Variance for X.

2. Hence find the Standard Deviation of X.
A contractor is interested in the total cost of a project on which
he intends to bid. He estimates that materials will cost Rs25,000
and that his labour will be Rs900 per day. If the project takes X
days to complete, the total cost of the project (in rupees) will be
given as:
C = 25,000 + 900X
The table below gives the probable completion time, in days, for
the project.
Completion
Time 10 11 12 13 14
X (Days)

Probability 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

(i) Find the mean and variance for completion time X

(ii) Find the mean and standard deviation for total cost C.
Binomial Probability
Distribution
 Criteria for a Binomial Probability Experiment
An experiment is said to be a binomial experiment provided
1. The experiment is performed at a fixed number of
times. Each repetition of the experiment is called a
trial.
2. The trials are independent. This means the outcome of
one trial will not affect the outcome of the other
trials.
3. For each trial, there are two mutually exclusive
outcomes, success or failure.
4. The probability of success is fixed for each trial of
the experiment.
 Notation Used in the
Binomial Probability Distribution
There are n independent trials of the
experiment
Let p denote the probability of success so that
1 p is the probability of failure.
Let x denote the number of successes in n
independent trials of the experiment.
So, 0 < x < n.
As the number of trials n in a binomial
experiment increase, the probability
distribution of the random variable X
becomes bell-shaped. As a general rule of
thumb, if np (1 p) > 10, then the
probability distribution will be
approximately bell-shaped.
Symbol Description

n The number of times a trial is

repeated.
p = P(S) The probability of success in a single
trial.
q = P(F) The probability of failure in a single
trial (q = 1 p)
x The random variable represents a
count of the number of successes in
n trials: x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . n.
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment.
If it is, specify the values of n, p and q and list the
possible values of the random variable, x. If it is not,
explain why.

A certain surgical procedure has an 85% chance of

success. A doctor performs the procedure on eight
patients. The random variable represents the number of
successful surgeries.

Note that for binomial distribution problem, n and p

are always given
Solution: the experiment is a binomial experiment because it
satisfies the four conditions of a binomial experiment. In the
experiment, each surgery represents one trial. There are eight
surgeries, and each surgery is independent of the others. Also,
there are only two possible outcomes for each surgeryeither
the surgery is a success or it is a failure. Finally, the probability
of success for each surgery is 0.85.

n=8
p = 0.85
q = 1 0.85 = 0.15
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
There are several ways to find the probability of x
successes in n trials of a binomial experiment. One way is to
use the binomial probability formula.

Binomial Probability Formula

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x
successes in n trials is:

n x n! x n x
P( x) n C x p q x
p q
(n x)! x!
A six sided die is rolled 3 times. Find the probability of
rolling exactly one 6.
Frequency # of 6s Probability
Roll 1 Roll 2 Roll 3
(1)(1)(1) = 1 3 1/216

(1)(1)(5) = 5 2 5/216

(1)(5)(1) = 5 2 5/216

(1)(5)(5) = 1 25/216
You could use 25
a tree diagram (5)(1)(1) = 5 2 5/216

(5)(1)(5) = 1 25/216
25
(5)(5)(1) = 1 25/216
25
(5)(5)(5) = 0 125/216
125
There are three outcomes that have exactly one six, and
each has a probability of 25/216. So, the probability of
rolling exactly one six is 3(25/216) 0.347. Another way to
answer the question is to use the binomial probability
formula. In this binomial experiment, rolling a 6 is a
success while rolling any other number is a failure. The
values for n, p, q, and x are n = 3, p = 1/6, q = 5/6 and x = 1.
The probability of rolling exactly one 6 is:

n x
P( x) n C x p q x
 3! 1 1 5 31
P (1) ( ) ( )
(3 1)!1! 6 6
1 5 2
3( )( )
6 6
1 25 By listing the possible values of x
3( )( ) with the corresponding
6 36
probability of each, you can
25 construct a binomial probability
3( )
216 distribution.
25
0.347
72
A survey indicates that 41% of American women
consider reading as their favorite leisure time
activity. You randomly select four women and ask
them if reading is their favorite leisure-time
activity. Find the probability that
(1) exactly two of them respond yes,
(2) at least two of them respond yes, and
(3) fewer than two of them respond yes.

Remember: probability (p) and number of independent

trials (n) are GIVEN!!!
Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x = 2, the
probability that exactly two women will respond
yes is:
42
P ( 2) 4 C2 (0.41) (0.59)
2

4! 42
2
(0.41) (0.59)
( 4 2)!2!
24
(.1681)(. 3481)
4
6(.1681)(. 3481) .35109366
To find the probability that at least two women will
respond yes, you can find the sum of P(2), P(3), and P(4).
Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x = 2, the probability
that at least two women will respond yes is:

P ( 2) 4 C2 (0.41) 2 (0.59) 4 2 .351093

P (3) 4 C3 (0.41) 3 (0.59) 4 3 0.162653
P ( 4) 4 C4 (0.41) 4 (0.59) 4 4 0.028258
P( x 2) P(2) P(3) P(4)
.351093 .162653 028258
0.542
To find the probability that fewer than two women will
respond yes, you can find the sum of P(0) and P(1). Using
n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x = 2, the probability that fewer
than two women will respond yes is:
P(0) 4 C0 (0.41) 0 (0.59) 40 0.121174
4 1
P(1) 4 C1 (0.41) (0.59)
1
0.336822
P( x 2) P(0) P(1)
..121174 .336822
0.458
65% of American households subscribe to cable TV. You
randomly select six households and ask each if they
subscribe to cable TV. Construct a probability distribution
for the random variable, x. Then graph the distribution.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 0.002 0.020 0.095 0.235 0.328 0.244 0.075

Because each probability is a relative frequency, you can

graph the probability using a relative frequency histogram
as shown on the next slide.
 Then Graph the Distribution
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 0.002 0.020 0.095 0.235 0.328 0.244 0.075
0.35 NOTE: that the
histogram is skewed
0.3 left. The graph of a
0.25 binomial distribution
Relative with p > .05 is
0.2
Frequency skewed left, while
0.15 P(x) the graph of a
binomial distribution
0.1
with p < .05 is
0.05 skewed right. The
0 graph of a binomial
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 distribution with
p = .05 is symmetric.
Households
Mean: = np

Variance: 2 = npq

Standard Deviation: = npq

In South Africa, 57% of the days in a year are cloudy.
Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the
number of cloudy days during the month of June. What
can you conclude?
Solution: There are 30 days in June. Using n = 30,
p = 0.57, and q = 0.43, you can find the mean variance
and standard deviation as shown.

Mean: = np = 30(0.57) = 17.1

Variance: 2 = npq = 30(0.57)(0.43) = 7.353

Standard Deviation: = npq = 7.353 2.71

According to Financial Executive (June 2015)
disability causes 48% of all mortgage foreclosures.
Given that 20 mortgage foreclosures are audited
by a large lending institution, what is the
probability that

Less than 3 foreclosures are due to a

disability?
Exactly 3 foreclosures are due to a disability?
More than 2 foreclosures are due to a
disability?
None are due to a disability?
90% of the trees planted by a landscaping firm
survive. What is the probability that of the next
13 trees planted:
a. at most ten will survive?
b. at least ten will survive?
c. exactly ten will survive?
According to an article in the March 2013 issue of
Readers Digest, Americans face a 1 in 20 chance of
acquiring an infection while hospitalized. If the
records of 15 randomly selected hospitalized
patients are examined, find the probability that:
a. at least two develop an infection?
b. none develop an infection?
Poisson Probability
Distribution
A random variable X, the number of successes in a
fixed interval, follows a Poisson process provided
the following conditions are met
1. The probability of two or more successes in any
sufficiently small subinterval is 0.
2. The probability of success is the same for any
two intervals of equal length.
3. The number of successes in any interval is
independent of the number of successes in any
other interval provided the intervals are not
overlapping.
The Poisson probability distribution function
can be used to approximate binomial
probabilities provided the number of trials
n > 100 and np < 10. In other words, the
number of independent trials of the binomial
experiment should be large and the
probability of success should be small.
The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution. It is
often used as a model for the number of events (such as
the number of telephone calls at a business, number of
customers in waiting lines, number of defects in a given
surface area, airplane arrivals, or the number of
accidents at an intersection) in a specific time period.
(rare events)

The major difference between Poisson and Binomial

distributions is that the Poisson does not have a fixed
number of trials. Instead, it uses the fixed interval of
time or space in which the number of successes is
recorded.
The Mean is and the Variance is

is the parameter which indicates the

average number of events in the given time
interval.
Mean = Variance =
Q.1 A small life insurance company has determined
that on the average it receives 6 death claims per
day. Find the probability that the company receives at
least seven death claims on a randomly selected day.
P(x 7) = 1 - P(x 6) = 1 - P(x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6) = 0.393697

Q.2 The number of traffic accidents that occurs on a

particular stretch of road during a month follows a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 9.4. Find the
probability that less than two accidents will occur on
this stretch of road during a randomly selected month.
P(x < 2) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) = 0.000860
 Exercises
1. The number of road construction projects that take place at
any one time in a certain city follows a Poisson distribution with a
mean of 3. Find the probability that exactly five road
construction projects are currently taking place in this city.
(0.100819)
2. The number of road construction projects that take place at
any one time in a certain city follows a Poisson distribution with a
mean of 7. Find the probability that more than four road
construction projects are currently taking place in the city.
(0.827008)
3. The number of traffic accidents that occur on a particular
stretch of road during a month follows a Poisson distribution with
a mean of 7.6. Find the probability that less than three accidents
will occur next month on this stretch of road.
(0.018757)