Learning Curves

Sections:
1. Learning Curve Theory
Chapter 19
2. Why the Learning Curve Occurs
3. Determining the Learning Rate
4. Factors Affecting the Learning Curve
5. Learning Curve Applications
6. Time Standards Versus the Learning
Curve

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Phenomenon
Reduction in cycle time that occurs in a repetitive
work activity as the number of cycles increases
 An important topic in time study
 When a worker accomplishes a task over and
over, the time required for each successive
cycle decreases as he or she learns the task
 At first the learning effect is rapid, and the
cycle time decreases significantly
 As more and more cycles are completed,
the cycle time reduction becomes less and
less
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Theory
 According to theory, there is a constant learning
rate that applies to a given repetitive task
 Learning rate = the proportion by which the
dependent variable (e.g., task time) is multiplied
every time the number of task cycles doubles
 Example: If T1 = 10 hr and LR = 80%, then
T2 = 0.80(10) = 8.0 hr,
T4 = 0.80(8.0) = 6.4 hr
T8 = 0.80(6.4) = 5.12 hr
and so on
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Learning Curve for LR = 80%

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Log-Linear Model
When learning curve time data are plotted on
log-log coordinates, the plot yields a straight
line with slope m
y = kxm
where y = dependent variable, k = constant
representing the value of the dependent
variable for the first work cycle, x = number of
work units completed, and m = slope
ln LR 
m= and LR = 2m
ln 2

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Same Learning Curve in Log-Log Plot

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Two Widely Used Log-Linear Models
1. Crawford Model
 Dependent variable is unit time TN
2. Wright Model
 Dependent variable is cumulative
average time T N

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Crawford Model
Most widely used learning curve model in
industry today

TN  T1N m

Example: T1 = 10 hr, LR = 80%, how long will

it take to complete the 20th work unit?

m = ln(0.80)/ln 2 = -0.32193

T20 = 10(20)-0.32193 = 3.81 hr

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Crawford Model
 Total cumulative time
N
TTN  T1  i m
i 1

 Cumulative average time

TTN
TN 
N

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Wright Model
 First learning curve model to be published
 Based on cumulative average time per unit
T N = T1Nm
 Total cumulative time:
TTN = N T N
or TTN = T1Nm+1
 Unit time:
TN = TTN - TTN-1

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Advantage of Log-Linear Model
Consists of only two parameters:
1. The time associated with the first unit
2. The slope m, from which can be derived the
learning rate LR
 Conversely, if LR is known, the slope m
can be deduced

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Comparison of Crawford and Wright

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Why the Learning Curve Occurs
Contributions of the worker
 Worker becomes familiar with the task - the
worker learns the task
 Worker makes fewer mistakes as the task is
repeated
 Hand and body motions become more efficient,
and there is a rhythm and pattern developed
 Minor adjustments in workplace layout to
reduce distances
 Fewer delays that interrupt the operation

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Why the Learning Curve Occurs
Contributions of the larger organization
 Methods improvements by the IE Department
 Fine-tuning of machinery and tooling
 Development of special tooling
 Technological improvements
 Product design improvements
 Improved quality of starting materials
 Better scheduling
 Improved logistical support
 Better motivation of workers
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Contributions to the Learning Curve

Contributions to
learning by the
worker and the
organization

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Typical Learning Rates (Crawford)
Type of work LR, % Industry LR, %

Assembly 84-85 Aerospace 85

Prototype assembly 65 Complex machines 75-85
Clerical ops 75-85 Construction 70-90
Inspection 86 Electronics mfg 90-95
Machining 90 Machine shop 90-95
Welding 85-90 Shipbuilding 80-85

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Worker-Machine Systems
 Learning in a work-machine system will be a
composite of the learning rates of the two
components of the system
LRw-m = pw LRw + pm LRm
where pw = proportion of cycle time controlled
by worker, and pm = proportion of cycle time
controlled by machine

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Interruptions in the Learning Curve
 Learning curve effect tends to be disrupted by
interruptions in production
 Possible reasons for interruptions:
 Batch production, in which there are
extended periods between repeat orders
 Labor strikes
 Vacations
 Raw material shortages

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Learning Loss due to Interruption

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Other Factors Affecting Learning
 Product complexity
 More opportunities for learning - higher T1
and lower LR
 Preproduction planning
 Fewer opportunities for learning - lower T1
and higher LR
 Labor turnover - slower learning (higher LR)
 Plateau model - learning curve consists of two
phases:
1. Start-up - log-linear model applies
2. Steady state - no further improvement
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Plateau Learning Curve Model

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Why the Plateau Model Occurs
 In a worker-machine system, worker is finally
limited by the speed of the machine
 No incentives for workers to make further
improvements
 Management is unwilling or unable to invest in
newer production technologies that would
sustain the learning curve
 Management does not believe that learning
can continue indefinitely, and this becomes a
self-fulfilling prophecy

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 Learning Curve Applications
Accident prevention Pricing negotiations
Capacity planning Pricing strategies
Cost accounting Product design changes
Cost estimating Productivity analysis
Cost reduction Quality control
Contract administration Reliability analysis
Failure analysis Safety
Labor requirements Vendor selection
estimation Wage incentives
Make-or-buy decisions Warranty maintenance
Methods analysis Worker performance
New product introduction analysis
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Time Standards vs. Learning Curve
 Apparent contradiction:
 A time standard is a constant value that is
defined under the following conditions:
 Standard method
 Standard work units
 Performed by a trained average worker
 Task is performed at 100% performance
 But the learning curve predicts that the
actual time for the work cycle will decrease
over time

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 How to Reconcile the Contradiction
 Although the standard time is a constant, the
actual cycle time for a manual task is a variable
 The time varies from one cycle to the next
 One of the reasons why the cycle time varies is
because the worker learns the task
 The cycle time is gradually reduced as the
number of repetitions increases, as predicted
by learning curve theory
 As long as there are no changes in methods or
work unit, it seems fair to give credit to the
worker for reductions in cycle time due to
improvements in skill, effort, pace, etc.
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
Standard Reference Quantity (SRQ)
 In batch production, it can be argued that the
quantity of the production run should influence
the value of the time standard
 Surely a worker must be given an
opportunity to learn a task before he or she
is measured against the time standard
 SRQ = the discrete quantity of production (e.g.,
10, 100, 1000 units) for which the standard
time for the task is applicable
 If the actual quantity of production is
different from the SRQ, then an adjustment
in the time standard is appropriate
Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work
by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.
 SRQ Adjustment Ratio

Work Systems and the Methods, Measurement, and Management of Work

by Mikell P. Groover, ISBN 0-13-140650-7.
©2007 Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ. All rights reserved.