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Random Variables and Expectation: Mr. Mark Anthony Garcia, M.S. Mathematics Department de La Salle University

Here are the solutions to the exercises: 1. The expected gain is $0. 2. The woman should pay $1 to make the game fair. 3. (A) See the probability distribution table constructed. (B) The expected winnings is Php 96,250.

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Ice Delevingne
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31 views

Random Variables and Expectation: Mr. Mark Anthony Garcia, M.S. Mathematics Department de La Salle University

Here are the solutions to the exercises: 1. The expected gain is $0. 2. The woman should pay $1 to make the game fair. 3. (A) See the probability distribution table constructed. (B) The expected winnings is Php 96,250.

Uploaded by

Ice Delevingne
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Mr. Mark Anthony Garcia, M.S.

Mathematics Department
De La Salle University

CHAPTER 6:
RANDOM VARIABLES
AND EXPECTATION
Situation: Random Variable
 Consider the experiment of tossing three
coins.
 Then the sample space S will contain
the elements HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,
TTH, THT, HTT and TTT.
 Let X be a variable representing the
number of heads that occur in each
outcome.
Situation: Random Variable
The following table shows the assignment
of values to each outcome.

Outcome X Outcome X
HHH 3 TTT 0
HHT 2 TTH 1
HTH 2 THT 1
THH 2 HTT 1
Situation: Random Variable

 The only possible values for X are 0, 1,


2 and 3.
 The variable X is viewed as a random
variable.
Random Variable

A random variable is a function that


associates a real number with each
element in the sample space.
Probability Distribution

A probability distribution shows the


probability of each value x of the random
variable X.
Example 1: Probability Distribution
Consider the experiment of tossing three
coins and let X be the random variable
representing the number of heads that
occur in each outcome.
Outcome X Outcome X
HHH 3 TTT 0
HHT 2 TTH 1
HTH 2 THT 1
THH 2 HTT 1
Example 1: Probability Distribution
The probability distribution of X is given in
the following table.

x 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
Example 1: Probability Distribution

 The probability that there is no head in


the outcome (TTT) is P(X=0) = 1/8.
 The probability that there is exactly one
head in the outcome (HTT, THT, TTH) is
P(X=1) = 3/8.
Example 1: Probability Distribution

 The probability that there is exactly two


heads in the outcome (HHT, HTH, THH)
is P(X=2) = 3/8.
 The probability that the outcome
contains all heads (HHH) is P(X=3) =
1/8.
Properties of Probability Distribution

1. Each probability P(X=x) is greater than


0.
2. The sum of all probabilities is equal to
1.
Example 2: Probability Distribution

 Consider the experiment of rolling a pair


of dice.
 Let X be the random representing the
sum of the top faces of the pair of dice.
Example 2: Probability Distribution
The following table shows the probability
distribution for X.

x P(X=x) x P(X=x) x P(X=x)


2 1/36 6 5/36 10 3/36
3 2/36 7 6/36 11 2/36
4 3/36 8 5/36 12 1/36
5 4/36 9 4/36
Situation
Suppose that two coins are tossed 16
times. The following table gives the result:

HT HH TT TH
TT HT TH TT
HH HH HH HT
TH TT HT TT
Situation
Let X be the random variable representing
the number heads per toss.

HT 1 HH 2 TT 0 TH 1
TT 0 HT 1 TH 1 TT 0
HH 2 HH 2 HH 2 HT 1
TH 1 TT 0 HT 1 HH 2
Situation

  
What is the average number of heads
per toss of the two coins?
Situation

 We may view this average as the


mathematical expectation.
 This means that for every toss of two
coins, we expect that there would be 1
head in the outcome.
 However, this result is from an
experiment.
Situation
  
Moreover, we can write the solution in
the following form.

x 0 1 2
P(X=x) 4/16 7/16 5/16
Mathematical Expectation

Let 
X be a random variable with probability
distribution . The mean or expected value
of X is given by .
Example 3: Expectation

Suppose that in a game of tossing two


coins, you win PhP100.00 when two heads
come out and you lose Php50.00
otherwise. What is your expected gain?
Example 3: Expectation

 Let X be the random variable


representing the player’s gain per toss.
 Player wins Php100 when HH comes
out.
 Otherwise, player loses Php50 when HT,
TH and TT come out
Example 3: Expectation
  
The probability distribution table is
shown below.
 Using mathematical expectation, we
have .

x Php100 -Php50
P(X=x) 1/4 3/4
Example 4: Expectation
Suppose that in a game, you win
PhP50.00 when you draw a heart card and
you lose PhP30.00 otherwise. What is
your expected gain?

x Php50 -Php30
P(X=x) 13/52 39/52
Example 4: Expectation

  
The expected gain (loss) of the player is
given by .
 So, .
Example 5: Expectation
  
By investing in a particular stock, a
person can make a profit in one year of
$4000 with probability 0.3 or take a loss
of $1000 with probability 0.7. What is
this person’s expected gain?
Exercises

1. In a gambling game, a man is paid $5 if


he gets all heads or all tails when three
coins are tossed, and he will pay out $3
if either one or two heads show. What is
his expected gain?
Exercises
2. In a gambling game, a woman is paid
$3 if she draws a jack or a queen and
$5 if she draws a king or an ace from
an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. If
she draws any other card, she loses.
How much should she pay to play if the
game is fair?
Exercises
3. A game in a TV show has two parts. In
the first part, the contestants will play
an elimination game and the winner will
gain 50,000 pesos. The winner will
have a chance to spin a spinner with 8
possible winnings: return 50,000 pesos,
divide 50,000 by 2, win 10,000, win
25,000, win 50,000, win 100,000, win
250,000 and win 500,000.
Exercises

A. Let X represents the random variable


representing the total winnings of the
contestant. Construct a probability
distribution table X.
B. What is the expected amount of winnings of
the contestant?

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