A MATHEMATICAL MODEL AND ANALYSIS OF AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE

(A CASE STUDY OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA)

 
  
 
BY
 
  
URUMESE, BAMIDELE DARLINGTON
PG/20/21/268020
N.C.E (2010), B.Sc (Ed) MATHEMATICS, DELSU (2015)

  
 
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS,
DELTA STATE UNIVERSITY, ABRAKA
 
  
OCTOBER, 2022
 
 ABSTRACT

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a new strain
of severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus has spread from Wuhan
city in China in December 2019 to no fewer than 210 countries as at June 2020 and still counting.
Nigeria experienced a rapid spread of the virus amidst weak health system. In this work, we proposed a
mathematical model of COVID-19 which is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and
control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model incorporates the key compartments and parameters
regarding COVID-19 in Nigeria which was analyzed and parameterized using COVID-19 data published
by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and it was used to assess the community-wide impact
of various control and mitigation strategies adopted in Nigeria. Numerical simulations of the model
showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-
distancing strategy in the entire nation. To understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria, the basic
reproduction number was obtained, and was then used to analyze the stability of the disease-free
equilibrium solution of the model. The model was calibrated using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for
Disease Control and key parameters of the model are estimated. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to
investigate the influence of the parameters in curtailing the disease. The model shows that COVID-19
can be effectively managed or eliminated in Nigeria if the control measures implemented are capable of
taking or sustaining the basic reproductive number R0 to a value below unity.  
 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged out of Wuhan city of China at the end of
2019. The pandemic, which rapidly spread to over 200 countries as of March 2020, continues to inflict severe
public health and socio-economic burden in many parts of the world, including in Nigeria. As of September 30,
2020, it accounted for over 28.8 million confirmed cases and about 921,000 deaths globally (World Health
Organization, 2020). Nadim and Chattopadhyay (2020) stated that the severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also known as COVID-19 initially appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in
December 2019, but its rapid spread has become a global threat. Coronavirus (COVID-19) is an infectious
disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COVID-2). According to the World
Health Organisation (WHO), coronavirus (COVID-19) is a newly identified virus that has caused monumental
effects and has subjected the world to a health disaster, as no continent on the planet earth is free from the life-
threatening and tragic pandemic. The entire human race is currently facing a tremendous health crisis with the
rapid spread of the disease throughout the world. The countries with high vulnerability at the early stage of the
outbreak were China, Spain, Italy, the USA, and the UK. As a temperate region, its effect on the African
continent was not alarming as only a few cases were reported at the early stage of the outbreak.
 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Different mathematical models exist in literature on the dynamics of infectious diseases.
Some have considered the SEIR model, while others the SEIQR and SEIRU model.
However, we are improving on these models by providing a classical deterministic model
for COVID-19 considering the quarantined individuals, confirmed cases, nonlinear forces
of infection in the form of saturated incidence rates in humans and the impact of the direct
transmission route from the virus in the environmental reservoir to humans. Hence, we
present a mathematical model for the infectious disease COVID-19 to describe the several
transmission pathways including the nonlinear forces of infection in the form of saturated
incidence rates in humans and direct transmission routes. The direct transmission routes
describe the transmission from the exposed individuals to the susceptible individuals and
from the infected individuals to the susceptible individuals. We shall construct a
deterministic 6-compartment model for COVID-19incorporating the quarantined and the
confirmed cases and mathematically analyze the model to establish its biological
relevance. Thereafter, we shall give a detailed study of the optimal control problem.
 GENERAL OBJECTIVE OF THE
STUDY
In order to achieve the general objective, the specific objectives of the study are to:
 Identify the relevant compartments in modeling COVID-19.
 Represent the compartments as a system of non-linear equations.
 Develop the state diagram for the model.
 Test for the validity of the model.
 Perform some numerical simulations of the model using graphical illustrations.
 Determine the impact of various control measures on the basic reproduction number.
 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

In this research, we shall adopt the SEIR model framework with total population of human
of size U with two additional classes (Quarantined and Confirmed cases). It shall be a
deterministic 6-compartments-model. The assumptions upon which the model is built, and
the schematic diagram showing the dynamical flow of infections shall be clearly presented.
Some of the parameters estimate used for simulation of this work are available in the
literature. Others are estimated from the available COVID-19 data (confirmed cases,
recovered cases, deaths, and samples tested) published by the NCDC to stimulate the
unknown parameters. Population and birth rate data were collected from Countrymeters
(2020) Nigeria Population Commission.
 Humans
αM M N O
∇ a( φ (α+β)O
t) N
amp anpN
M
apmP
P aoqO

apqP

αR acrQ (α+β)Q
R Q

Figure 3.2: The model of compartmental transmission of COVID-19 among individuals

Figure 4.2: Simulation of model (1.1) for various effectiveness of social-
distancing control measures in the absence of hygienic culture and face mask.
Figure 4.3: Simulation of model (1.1) for various level of relaxation of lockdown control measures in the
absence of hygienic culture and face mask
Figure 4.4: Simulation of model (1.1) for various effectiveness of hygienic culture control
measures in the absence of face mask and social-distancing.
Figure 4.5: Simulation of model (1.1) for various effectiveness use of face mask control
measure in the absence of social distancing and hygienic culture.
 RESULTS
The model (1.1) is now simulated, using the baseline parameter values tabulated in Tables 3, to assess the
community-wide impact of the various intervention strategies incorporated into the model for the entire
Nigerian nation. For simulation convenience (and for computational tractability), we re-scale the total Nigerian
population to 1.5 million. We simulate the pandemic starting with one index case in the symptomatically-
infectious class, while initially fixing all other state variables for the infected and recovered classes of the model
to zero.
 CONCLUSION

 This study has modified a deterministic model and used the modified model to
studyCOVID-19 disease among the human population in Nigeria. Epidemiological
analysis has been performed on the infectious model, and the analysis revealed that
COVID-19 pandemic is controllable in Nigeria using basic non-pharmaceutical
interventions, such as social distancing, community lockdown, the use of face masks in
public, the use of personal protection equipment(PPE) by frontline healthcare workers,
wide spread diagnostic testing and contact tracing, personal hygiene and hand washing,
rapid isolation of confirmed cases and the quarantine of people suspected of being
exposed to the pandemic.
 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

 The world has been facing a devastating novel Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19),
causedbySARs-CoV-2,since its emergence in the Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019.
The pandemic, which has rapidly spread to over 210 countries, continues to inflict severe
public health and socio-economic burden in many parts of the world, including Nigeria.
It has, as of May 18, 2020, accounted for over 4.7million confirmed cases and about
315,000 deaths globally. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral for use
against the pandemic in humans, control efforts are focused on the use of non-
pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social (physical)-distancing, community
lockdown, contact tracing, quarantine of suspected cases, and isolation of confirmed
cases and the use of face masks in public. Nigeria is one of the countries in Africa that is
hardest hit with the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a mathematical
model for assessing the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, and use the model to assess the
community-wide impact of the various control and mitigation strategies implemented
nation- wide.
 CONTRIBUTIONS TO KNOWLEDGE

This study has contributed to knowledge in the following ways:

 Construction of a relevant 7-compartment deterministic model for COVID-19
infectious disease.
 The derivation of the basic reproduction number of a 7-compartment model for
COVID-19.
 Identifying the best control strategies in completely truncating the COVID-19
infectious disease.
THANK YOU