Learning

Objective
I will be able to select a sampling methods and address any bias-
ness in samples

Success
Criteria
At the end of the lesson, I will be able to:

4.3.1 examine the concept of a random sample

4.3.2 discuss sources of bias in samples, and procedures to ensure randomness
4.3.3 use graphical displays of simulated data to investigate the variability of random samples from various types of
distributions, including uniform, normal and Bernoulli

4.3.4 examine the concept of the sample proportion as a random variable whose value varies between
samples, and the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the sample proportion
Vocabular
y• Primary Data: Data which is collected by the organisation that is going to use for statistical analysis.
It may be collected by:
o Direct observation
o Interviews
o Questionnaires
o Surveys

• Secondary Data: Data which is obtained by some external sources such as:
o Newspapers
o Internet
o Television
o Agencies such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics
o Secondary data is easy to acquire and process is not as expensive but data may have been refined,
and its originality may be lost.
Samples and
Population
Census: Involves the entire population to be considered.

Population: The set of all eligible members of a group which we intend to study
Example: If we are interested in the Methods sores of the Year 12 students in the whole of Western
Australia. This group of students could be considered a population.

Sample: Since the entire population is too big to study, we obtain a sample from the population
instead. A sample is a subset of the entire population.
Example: If we choose to look at the scores of Year 12 students from 3-4 schools

Random sample is a subset of the entire population that has been formed in such a way that every
member from the population has a non-zero probability of being selected for the sample.

We will look at a number of ways we can look at obtaining a random sample such as if it is a simple
random sample, then all members have an equal chance of being selected.
Forming a Random
Sample
• Simple random samples
o At the start of the process, every member from the population will be allocated a unique number and the number is then
randomly drawn. In this case, every member has an equal chance of being chosen
o Disadvantage: We could end up with a sample such that the sample may consist predominantly of the same gender or age
group. In which, this sample would no longer be a good representative of the population

• Systematic or interval
o Similar to above, at the start of the process, every member from the population will be allocated a unique number and a
number is selected at every interval between them. Eg. selecting every 5 th number.
o Disadvantage: Only at the start of the sampling process with the first selection be random. Once the first number is chosen,
the other numbers forming the sample are automatically selected hence those outside the interval have no longer any chance
of being selected.
• Stratified samples
o Population is first divided into layers such as homogeneous groups. Then either using simple random sampling or systematic
sampling to select the sample by taking samples within the layers.
o Disadvantage: Not all members of the population have an equal chance of being selected. Constructing stratified samples can
be both time consuming, labour intensive and expensive.

• Cluster samples
o Population is divided into subgroups or clusters and a set of these clusters will be selected to be the sample.
o Disadvantage: All members of the selected cluster are selected but those outside the selected clusters will not be selected
Random
Sampling
To ensure a sample is random, such that all members of the population have an equal chance of being
selected, we:
1) Assign a number to every member of the population. If we are not dealing with people, but maybe
an area, we can divide the total area into equal regions and assign a number to each region.
2) Use random number generators or the ‘name in a hat’ to choose the members of our sample.

Another important factor for a random sample to be an appropriate reflection of the population is
the sample size, n.
In general, if n gets larger, then we are ensuring the accuracy of our results such that it will reflect the
characteristics of the population better.
Random
Sampling
To generate a random sample, here is what we can do. Supposing the population has 100 people in it and we
wanted a sample of 30 people, we could then use a random number generator to generate the sample of 30
without bias.

Under the ‘Catalog’ tab, if you go to If parameters are set to generate If you want to immediately have 30
the ‘R’ tab you should find the rand() numbers between 1 to 100 (inclusive) numbers generated, using randList() is
function. Without parameters it will then it will generate integer values preferred. The first value is the
randomly generate a number between within that specified range. sample, the next two values are the
0 and 1 for you. boundaries.
Systematic
Sampling
A random sample can also be selected through a systematic approach, such as lining up everyone in
alphabetical order and choosing every 3rd person for the sample.
The only issue with this is: imagine we were sampling components from a machine and every 20 th
component was faulty (20th, 40th, 60th,…). If we started selecting our sample from the 17th component,
and then chose every 25th component from there, notice that no defectives would be included in our
sample (17, 42, 67, 92,…).

Cluster
Sampling
The population is divided into subgroups or clusters and a set of these clusters will be selected to be
the sample.
Example: A well-known fast food chain has 540 stores nationwide and management wishes to survey
its customers about a possible new menu.
The management of the fast food chain might randomly select 80 of their stores and conduct a survey
using probability sampling methods
 Stratified
InSampling
stratified sampling, the sample is randomly selected in layers. It allows us to obtain a sample that not only represents the entire population but
also the subgroups within the population.

Example: If a sample of 60 students is required from the 1221 students attending a particular High School which has 6 year levels. Then the 6 year
levels are the layers, and we will select 10 students from each year level using random selection.

This is known as non-proportional stratified sampling. This method does not take into consideration the size of each layer and hence is not a true
representative of the population.

Proportional Stratified Sampling

Here, the size of each layer is taking into consideration and a sample is selected based on the proportion to the size.
Suppose the 1221 students distributed as follows:
• 221 students in Year 7 • 285 students in Year 10
• 240 students in Year 8 • 124 students n Year 11
• 248 students in Year 9 • 103 students in Year 12
If we wanted to select a sample of 60 students, we could calculate the proportions of each layer as follows:
(11 Year 7s) (12 Year 8s) (12 Year 9s)

(14 Year 10s) (6 Year 11s) (5 Year 12s)

Hence our sample of 60 students would consist of these proportions of students from each year group.
More Sampling
Methods
• Convenience samples
o Members of convenience sample are chosen because they are readily available
o Example: If a sample of 200 students is required then a possible convenience sample would be to head to a high school
where the researcher lives and select the first 200 students in that high school
o Advantage: Cost and time effective
o Disadvantage: Sample is usually bias

• Quota samples
o Similar to Stratified sampling where population is divided into layers However, instead of a random sampling method
involve in selecting the sample in a given layer, a method of convenience sampling is used.
o Eg if a sample of 60 students are required from 1221 high school students, then 10 students from each year group are
selected using convenience sampling such as the first 10 of each layer to arrive at the high school in the morning. This will
form some bias-ness as students arriving later than the 10 students will have no chance of being included in the sample.

• Self-selection/Volunteer samples
• Members of the population volunteer themselves rather than being selected.
• E.g.: If 200 students are required, if a mass email is being sent out, the first 200 students to respond positively to the email
will form the sample.
• This sampling method usually requires one to send out a mass email, or complete phone-in surveys used by radio or
television stations or surveys sent out in newspaper.
• Disadvantage: Can be open to abuse as no limit to the number of times a person can complete the survey. Bias-ness
towards people with a stronger opinion in the survey are more likely to complete the survey than one who is not.
Guided
Practice
For each of the scenarios, match the most appropriate sampling method chosen from the following, given a
reason of your choice.
Methods: Volunteer sampling, Quota sampling, Cluster Sampling, Stratified Sampling, Simple Random Sampling,
Systematic Sampling, Convenience Sampling
a) A restaurant owner wants feedback on how their customer service is so he leaves a survey card on each
table.
b) The principal of a large secondary school college wants to find out what students think of the Year 8
mathematics curriculum. He selects three of the eleven Year 8 Mathematics classes and surveys all of the
students in those classes.
a) Volunteer sampling
Customers choose to or choose not to complete the survey card

b) Cluster sampling
Three classes chosen, all students surveyed.
Guided
Practice
For each of the scenarios, match the most appropriate sampling method chosen from the following, given a
reason of your choice.
Methods: Volunteer sampling, Quota sampling, Cluster Sampling, Stratified Sampling, Simple Random Sampling,
Systematic Sampling, Convenience Sampling
a) A football club wants to survey its fans regarding a new promotion. The promotion team decides to survey
250 fans by using the same proportions of age groups as the population
b) A university student of a residential college is working on a survey of student’s attitudes towards college
administrators, and so he talks to his roommates and other people on the floor of its residential college.

a) Stratified sampling
Surveys in same proportion

b) Convenience sampling
Sample made up of people within easy reac.
Guided
PracticeSecondary College has an enrolment of 424 Year 8 students, 352 Year 9 students, 296 Year 10
Avonlorne
students, 284 Year 11 students and 207 Year 12 students. How many students from each year group must be
taken to make up a sample of 100 students which reflects the proportion of students in each year group?

Total number of students:

Proportion for Year 8:

Proportion for Year 9:

Proportion for Year 10:

Proportion for Year 11:

Proportion for Year 12:

Bias-
ness
When a sample has not been formed by random selection, or if the sample is not large enough,
it is more likely to introduce bias.
Bias, in the context of sampling in Mathematics, is when a sample statistic over or under-
estimates the population parameter.

A sample is deemed bias if members of the population from which the sample is derived either
has:
• Zero chance of being selected
• Probability of these members being selected cannot be determined before hand
Most samples are biased to a certain degree and it is almost impossible to design and conduct
a bias-free sample.
There are two main source of bias
• Sampling bias (aka selection bias)
• Response bias
Selection
Bias
Selection bias – occurs when some members of the population are less likely to be included
in the sample than others
• Under-coverage bias
• Occurs when some members of the population are under-represented or over-represented. This is
usually a problem in convenience samples.

• Voluntary Response or Self-selection bias

• Occurs when sample consists of people who volunteer to respond because they have strong opinions on
the issue. As such, over-represent individual who have a strong opinions

• Self-interest bias or self-serving bias

• Occurs when researchers have an interest in the outcome, hence judgements are shaded by their own
interest

• Non-response bias
• When chosen individuals for the sample are unwilling or unable to participate. Hence the sample is no
longer a representative of the population
Response
Bias
Response bias – occurs when participants give inaccurate response for any reason. Eg. Participants
in a survey deliberately give false or misleading answer.
• Leading question bias
• Occurs when the wording of the question prompts the respondent to answer in a particular way
• Eg. “How was the car going when it smashed into the bus?” – Implies that the car was at fault and suggests that
the car was travelling at a high speed. How can we reword this question?
• “How fast was each vehicle travelling when the accident occurred?”- Does not assign any blame or pre-
judgement.

• Social desirability bias

• Respondents answer questions in a manner that will be view favourably by others instead of choosing response
that are reflective of their true feelings.
• This becomes an issue when it involves socially sensitive topics like religion, politics, drug use, race, cheating etc
• Acquiescence bias
• Respondents to a survey have a tendency to agree with all the questions
Reducing
Bias
• Select participants from the target population randomly such as using stratified random
sampling.

• Have a large sample size. The more participants you take in your sample, the more
information you will have and the better your estimates will be

Note: If your sampling method is flawed, then increasing the sample size will not reduce bias-
ness.
Guided
Practice
In order to determine the sort of film in which to invest his money, a producer waits outside a theatre and asks
people as they leave whether they prefer comedy, drama, horror or science fiction. Do you think this is an
appropriate way of selecting a random sample of movie goers? Explain your answer.

No, the sample will be biased towards the type of movie being shown.

In order to survey the attitude of parents to the current uniform requirements, the principal of a
school selected 100 students at random from the school roll, and then interviewed their parents.
Do you think this group of parents would form a simple random sample?
No, a parent’s chance of selection depends on how many children they have at the school.
Guided
Practice
A pharmaceutical company wishes to gather information on a new form of headache tablets.
Comment on whether there is any bias in the following sampling methods, giving reasons for
your answers.
a) People were surveyed outside a dental clinic.
Biased, as dental patients are more likely to have headaches due to dental pain on average.
b) People waiting at a central bus station in the city were selected.
No bias, as there is no connection between headaches and mode of travel in general. IF there
was bias, it would only be in that not all people take public transportation and so not every
member of the population would have equal contribution to the survey.
c) People were contacted using random mobile numbers.
Biased, as not every person in the population has access to a mobile phone. Some may only
use landlines.
Guided
Practice
1) On a particular media website, readers were invited to respond to the following question:
Do you agree that asylum seeker boats should be forcefully turned away from Australian
territorial waters? Comment on this method of sampling public opinion on the matter and
discuss possible sources of bias.

2) On a popular celebrity cooking show, viewers were invited to SMS their choice of one of
two celebrities for the title of ‘Australia’s favourite celebrity chef’. Comment on this
method of polling for the ‘title’ and discuss the possible sources of bias.

3) An expensive private school (single sex) conducted a phone poll on the families of 200 of
its students to gauge the proportion of families supporting the extending of school hours
for the students. Comment on the choice of sampling and discuss possible sources of bias
and ways to reduce them.
Guided
Practice
On a particular media website, readers were invited to respond to the following question: Do
you agree that asylum seeker boats should be forcefully turned away from Australian
territorial waters? Comment on this method of sampling public opinion on the matter and
discuss possible sources of bias.

This is an example of self-selection/voluntary response sampling and hence, it is not random.

Subsequently, one possible source of bias is non-response bias (not every reader will
participate in the survey if they can ‘choose’ to participate).
Not all of the Australian population would use this particular website, and hence individuals
who do not have internet access, or who may not understand English, are neglected from the
sample.
Guided
Practice
On a popular celebrity cooking show, viewers were invited to SMS their choice of one of two
celebrities for the title of ‘Australia’s favourite celebrity chef’. Comment on this method of
polling for the ‘title’ and discuss the possible sources of bias.

This is another example of self-selection/voluntary response sampling and again, it is not

random. The results will be distorted due to more responses from ‘interested’ groups, and no
responses from viewers who do not want to participate in the poll.

Additionally, not all individuals may have access to a mobile phone to participate in the poll.
Guided
Practice
An expensive private school (single sex) conducted a phone poll on the families of 200 of its
students to gauge the proportion of families supporting the extending of school hours for the
students. Comment on the choice of sampling and discuss possible sources of bias and ways
to reduce them.
This is an example of convenience sampling, as the school is calling their students’ parents for
an opinion so it is easy and efficient. However, the timing at which the calls are made will
cause possible sources of bias as working parents may not be able to be contacted. If they
are, their opinions may be distorted if they are interrupted during their working hours (i.e.
under stress etc.).
Furthermore, not all parents are English-speaking and if the poll is done in English, this would
cause distorted results.
To reduce this bias, the school should consider ‘categories’ of parents to ensure they provide
equal opportunities for working parents and stay-at-home parents to response to the poll.
Sample
Proportion
Population proportion - denoted as .
To determine the population proportion with a certain attribute:

Sample proportion - denoted as .

To determine the sample proportion with a certain attribute:
Guided
Practice
In a certain school, 35% of the students travel on the school bus. A group of 100 students were selected in a
random sample, and 42 of them travel on the school bus. In this example:
a) What is defined to be the population?
b) What is the value if the population proportion?
c) What is the value of the sample proportion?

The population is all students in this school

𝑝=0.35
^ = 0.42
𝑝
 Estimation – Guided
Practice
To estimate the number of marron in his dam, a famer caught 38 marron marked them and then released them
back into the dam. After a few days, the farmer took a second sample of 53 marron from the dam and found
amongst them three marked marron. Based on these figures, estimate the number of marron in this dam at this
time.

Consider the number of marked marron to population size,

Proportion of marked marron

Consider the recaptured marked proportion

Proportion of marked marron from recaptured sample

To estimate the number of total marrons, we approximate:

38 3
≈
𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 53 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 53
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 ≈ × 38=671 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑠
 Estimation – Guided
Practice
5000 fingerlings (young fish) were released into a tank and a sample of fingerlings was taken from this tank and
sexed. It was found that 307 of the fingerlings were female and 38 were male. Estimate the number of male
fingerlings in the tank.

Consider the sample proportion of male,

Male proportion

To estimate the number of male, we approximate:

𝑁𝑜 . 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 38
≈
5000
male spieces
345
Variability of
Samples
The first row of graphs show the
distributions of a sample of 20
numbers generated from a random
variable, X, with X uniformly
distributed across the integers 1 to 8.

Theoretically, we expect the chances of

each value to be equally likely (since it
is uniform), and we also expect the
shape of the distribution to be
rectangular. We also expect the mean
to be 4.5.

However, it makes sense that different

samples (taken by experimentation)
will show variations.
 Variability of Samples (Food for
thought)
The first row of graphs show the distributions of a sample
of 20 numbers generated from a random variable, X, with
. The next two rows increase the sample size.

• Are all samples of the same size, and same type of

distribution, identical?

• Are the means of the samples close to the population

mean (i.e. note the mean is 6)? Do they get closer to
this value as we increase the sample size?

• Are the standard deviations of the samples close to

the population standard deviation (i.e. note the S.D. is
1.2)? Do they get closer to this value as we increase
the sample size?

• Does the shape of the distribution become closer to

what we expect theoretically as the sample size
increases?
Guided
Practice
Consider the following samples of size 40 obtained from a Bernoulli distribution with .
Sample A Sample B

𝜇=0.6
Theoretically, what is the mean of this sample size?
Calculate the mean of each sample:
28
a) ¿ 40
=0.7 b)
c) d)

Compare the given samples

Sample A has a higher mean
but sample B has a larger spread
Independent
Practice
Complete Jklup Ex 5A – 5D
Cambridge Ex 12A