- http://www.markhorridge.com/
http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pho185.htm
Mark Horridge
Victoria University Australia, Centre of Policy Studies, Faculty Member
Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 1975, when the National Ethanol Program (Programa Nacional do Alcool – Proalcool) was created, the country has produced fuel ethanol on a large... more
Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 1975, when the National Ethanol Program (Programa Nacional do Alcool – Proalcool) was created, the country has produced fuel ethanol on a large scale. The increase in sugar exports in the nineties, which competed with inputs to
Spatial CGE models rely on detailed information from multiregional input-output systems. Multiregional input-output tables (IOT) are usually not available and have to be compiled. This paper compares two different approaches to compile... more
Spatial CGE models rely on detailed information from multiregional input-output systems. Multiregional input-output tables (IOT) are usually not available and have to be compiled. This paper compares two different approaches to compile regional IOT – algorithm based approach that mechanically regionalizes national IOT using a predefined set of regional variables and hybrid approach that uses as much regional data as possible. We aim at verifying whether a use of a given approach has a significant impact on CGE simulation results. In our case, we compile regional IOT for Austria applying ready-made Horridge algorithm and a hybrid approach. We find that aggregate simulation results are surprisingly similar. As a result, we could claim that algorithm based approach is in fact an effective way of regionalizing national IOT. However, once we compare the results at the sectoral level they start to differ significantly. This may raise serious concerns about the adequacy of certain results ...
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In this paper we analyze the economic and environmental effects of the new Brazilian Forest Code, when compared to the previous version. A general equilibrium model of Brazil, tailored for land use change and emissions analysis is used.... more
In this paper we analyze the economic and environmental effects of the new Brazilian Forest Code, when compared to the previous version. A general equilibrium model of Brazil, tailored for land use change and emissions analysis is used. It´s a dynamic, inter-regional and “bottom-up” model, with a land use and emissions module. Two versions of the Forest Code are analyzed: the original (old) forest code, and the new version approved recently, and still awaiting implementation. The scenarios are based on satellite imagery generated in the AgLue Project. Results point to a significant reduction in greenhouse gases emissions in both versions of the forest code, although higher in the previous version. The economic costs associated are found not to be very high, although different across different states.
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Regional expansion of irrigated agriculture may minimize risks for the farmer and strengthen food security for future generations. However, at the same time, it has a damaging effect on water availability and may worsen episodes of micro... more
Regional expansion of irrigated agriculture may minimize risks for the farmer and strengthen food security for future generations. However, at the same time, it has a damaging effect on water availability and may worsen episodes of micro regional water scarcity. In this paper, we analyze scenarios of irrigation expansion in the Brazilian agriculture, using a computable general equilibrium model (the TERM-BR model) to assess the impacts on water demand for 2025. Simulations were carried out for areas deemed potentially suitable for irrigation based on National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) and Ministry of National Integration report (MI). We increase the regional detail to focus on some of the Brazilian Northeastern States, in order to assess the balance between regional water supply (as determined by the Climatic Water Balance) and demand. The comparative results of the Climatic Water Balance and the TERM-BR model for the region point to potential water availability problems in specif...
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GTAPAgg is a Windows program used to prepare data bases for the GTAP economic model. The GTAP Version 9 Data Base covers 57 commodities and 140 regions. Nearly all applications of the GTAP Model use an aggregation of this data base.... more
GTAPAgg is a Windows program used to prepare data bases for the GTAP economic model. The GTAP Version 9 Data Base covers 57 commodities and 140 regions. Nearly all applications of the GTAP Model use an aggregation of this data base. GTAPAgg helps you prepare an aggregation scheme, then uses your scheme to prepare an aggregated data base for the GTAP Model. For version 9 of GTAP Data Base, we have three GTAPAgg packages, one each for the years 2004, 2007 and 2011. The program is very simple to use and is accompanied by an online help file.
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The sharp increase in Australia's terms of trade since 2003-04 has dramatic regional and sectoral implications. Mining-intensive regions have gained from the jump in export prices. Import-competing sectors have faced greater... more
The sharp increase in Australia's terms of trade since 2003-04 has dramatic regional and sectoral implications. Mining-intensive regions have gained from the jump in export prices. Import-competing sectors have faced greater competition both from falling import prices and due to rising demand for domestic factors from the mining sectors. The drought of 2006 will widen the gap between winning and losing regions. In Indonesia, even if we assume that the oil extraction sector is facing resource depletion, a long-run terms-of-trade improvement may result in aggregate consumption increasing should real GDP fall relative to the base case. The TERM framework is highly suitable for modelling Brazil and China, each with around 30 regions.
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Objective To show how to produce a map with regions shaded according to a vector of regional results from a GTAP simulation. Methodology The presentation will demonstrate (a) how to produce a map of the world containing the regions... more
Objective To show how to produce a map with regions shaded according to a vector of regional results from a GTAP simulation. Methodology The presentation will demonstrate (a) how to produce a map of the world containing the regions distinguished by a particular GTAP simulation; (b) how to shade or color the regions according to a vector of regional simulations; and (c) how to paste the shaded map into a Word document or PowerPoint slideshow. The paper includes detailed instructions for completing these and other tasks. Data and Anticipated Findings [Not relevant here] Summary Maps are a natural way to present results from regional economic models, and are particularly useful for slideshow presentations. Unfortunately, commercial mapping (aka GIS) programs are expensive and complicated. By comparison, the ShadeMap program has limited capabilities, but is free and simple to use. To assist GTAP users, the ShadeMap package includes region boundary files (ie, maps) for versions 5, 5.4, 6...
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The ORANI applied general equilibrium (AGE) model of the Australian econ- omy has been widely used by academics and by economists in the government and private sectors. We describe a generic version of the model, ORANI-G, designed for... more
The ORANI applied general equilibrium (AGE) model of the Australian econ- omy has been widely used by academics and by economists in the government and private sectors. We describe a generic version of the model, ORANI-G, designed for expository purposes and for adaptation to other countries. Our description of the model's equations and database is closely integrated with an explanation of how the model is solved using the GEMPACK system. The intention is to provide a convenient starting-point for those wishing to use or construct a similar AGE model. Computer files are available, which contain a complete model specification and database. ORANI-G forms the basis of an annual modelling course, and has been adapted to build models of South Africa, Brazil, Ireland, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Fiji, South Korea, Denmark, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and both Chinas.
The most remarkable change the WTO accession brings to China is the opening up to Foreign Direct Investment of pillar manufacturing and services industries that have been monopolized or dominated by State Owned Enterprises. This study... more
The most remarkable change the WTO accession brings to China is the opening up to Foreign Direct Investment of pillar manufacturing and services industries that have been monopolized or dominated by State Owned Enterprises. This study analyses the effects of this change using a Computable General Equilibrium model of China. The study draws on China’s experience in the early 1990s when state capital withdrew from light manufacturing industries leading to a massive inflow of foreign direct investment. In contrast to most general equilibrium analysis focusing on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, this study concludes that WTO accession will not threaten the health of China’s pillar industries. Opening up of the pillar industries to non-state capital will bring about improvement in productivities following the inflow of foreign direct investment into these industries. WTO accession thus positions China to become an important production base of not only light manufacturing industries, but ...
We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and... more
We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda's green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda's green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.
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Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several... more
Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the mo...
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This paper develops and operationalizes the integrated economic-environmental modelling (IEEM) platform which integrates environmental data organized under the first international system of environmental economic accounting with a... more
This paper develops and operationalizes the integrated economic-environmental modelling (IEEM) platform which integrates environmental data organized under the first international system of environmental economic accounting with a powerful dynamic economy-wide modelling approach. IEEM enables the ex-ante economic analysis of policies on the economy and the environment in a quantitative, comprehensive and consistent framework. IEEM elucidates the two-way interrelationships between the economy and environment, considering how economic activities depend on the environment as a source of inputs and as a sink for their outputs. In addition to standard economic impact indicators such as gross domestic product, income and employment, IEEM generates indicators that describe policy impacts on the use of environmental resources, wealth and environmental quality which together determine prospects for future economic growth and well-being. To illustrate the analytical capabilities of IEEM, the model is calibrated with Guatemala’s SEEA and applied to analysis of its forest and fuelwood sector where negative health and environmental impacts arise from inefficient fuelwood use.
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Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) marks a new era in China's economic reform. In this new era, state capital will lose its dominance of pillar industries such as iron and steel, automobile, petrochemicals, non-ferrous... more
Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) marks a new era in China's economic reform. In this new era, state capital will lose its dominance of pillar industries such as iron and steel, automobile, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metal, insurance, telecommunication, banking, wholesale, and utilities. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model of China to estimate the economic benefits from China
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TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottom-up " CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disaggre-gated regional data while providing a quick... more
TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottom-up " CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disaggre-gated regional data while providing a quick solution to simulations. This makes it a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks that may be region-specific. We include some details of how we prepared the TERM database, using a national input-output table, together with regional data showing output (for agriculture) and employment (in other sectors) for each of 144 sectors and 57 regions [the Australian statistical divisions]. Using a 38-sector, 45-region aggregation of the model, we simulate the short-run effects of the Australian drought of 2002-03, which was the most widespread for 20 years. The effects on some statistical divisions are extreme, with income losses of up to 20 per cent. Despite the relatively small share of agriculture in Australian GDP, the drought reduces GDP ...
Modern CGE models can boast considerable sectoral detail. However, it is obvious that output of (say) electronic components, must be quite heterogeneous. Hence, since Leontief, multisectoral models tend to measure quantities not in... more
Modern CGE models can boast considerable sectoral detail. However, it is obvious that output of (say) electronic components, must be quite heterogeneous. Hence, since Leontief, multisectoral models tend to measure quantities not in physical units but in effective economic units (usually initial-dollars-worth). The CET functional form, close cousin to CES, is used to allocate a fixed resource between alternate uses; for example land between crops, or workers between sectors. It works well when both input and output quantities are measured in initial-dollars-worth, such as land rental values. Because CET chooses a crop mix to maximize revenue, it is welfare-neutral -- a small change in land allocation will not affect land's contribution to GDP. This is a desirable property. But CET translates poorly into physical units: we typically find that if percent changes in (effective) land use are interpreted as percent changes in crop areas, then total land area is not fixed. This can be ...
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Given that the General Equilibrium (GE) models such as GTAP are highly aggregated, it is difficult to capture the tariff and trade-flow variations at disaggregate levels in these models. On the other hand, Partial Equilibrium (PE) models,... more
Given that the General Equilibrium (GE) models such as GTAP are highly aggregated, it is difficult to capture the tariff and trade-flow variations at disaggregate levels in these models. On the other hand, Partial Equilibrium (PE) models, which can be used for analysis at disaggregate levels, deprive the researcher of the benefits of an economy-wide analysis, which are crucial to examine trade policy impacts. Therefore, a CGE framework that is nested with a Partial Equilibrium model is an ideal tool to carry out trade policy analysis at disaggregated levels. We develop a Partial Equilibrium model in this paper, using some CET and CES nests, market clearing conditions and price linkages and nest it within the standard GTAP model, calling it a PE-GE model. The primary advantage of this new work is that it is undertaken in conjunction with the standard GTAP model, thereby making it readily available to users of that model, along with all of the decomposition tools that have been develo...
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It is expensive to prepare a database for a large CGE model -- so we should plan that the database will be used for many (perhaps unanticipated) purposes. For this and other reasons it is wise to construct a database with as much regional... more
It is expensive to prepare a database for a large CGE model -- so we should plan that the database will be used for many (perhaps unanticipated) purposes. For this and other reasons it is wise to construct a database with as much regional and sectoral disaggregation as possible. But a model with too many sectors and regions is annoyingly slow to solve. Thus it is common practice to aggregate a large 'master' database before use. Can we make results computed with aggregated data more closely resemble those from disaggregate data? A CGE database consists mainly of matrices of flow values, and elasticities (mostly pertaining to CES nests). Having defined many-to-one mappings from the (many) old sectors/regions to the (fewer) new sectors/regions, it is easy to aggregate the flows matrices by simply adding. Aggregated elasticities are usually constructed as weighted averages of the disaggregate elasticities -- using as weights the flow values associated with each elasticity (that...
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The GTAP model is designed for analysis related to international trade. As such, the model comprises a detailed specification of trade between countries, as well as a full set of accounts for the domestic economies. For many situations or... more
The GTAP model is designed for analysis related to international trade. As such, the model comprises a detailed specification of trade between countries, as well as a full set of accounts for the domestic economies. For many situations or types of policy analysis, however, more detailed modeling of specific national economies may be required. This is the case, for example, of questions demanding inter-regional analysis inside the national economies. Among the many possible interesting applications of the GTAP model, then, is its use in conjunction to national models. The interest in this kind of application is growing in recent years, and encompasses a wide range of theoretical as well as practical questions. This paper provides some hints and considerations on linking the GTAP model to national, more detailed models, as well as a practical implementation linking GTAP to a inter-regional version of ORANIGFR, calibrated with Brazilian data. In what follows, we first set the main diff...
This paper develops and operationalizes the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modelling (IEEM) platform which integrates environmental data organized under the first international standard for environmental-economic accounting with a... more
This paper develops and operationalizes the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modelling (IEEM) platform which integrates environmental data organized under the first international standard for environmental-economic accounting with a powerful economy-wide modelling approach. IEEM enables the ex-ante economic analysis of public policies and investment on the economy and the environment in a quantitative, comprehensive and consistent framework. IEEM elucidates the two-way interrelationships between the economy and environment, considering how economic activities depend on the environment as a source of inputs and as a sink for its outputs. In addition to standard economic impact indicators such as gross domestic product, income and employment, IEEM generates indicators that describe policy impacts on the use of environmental resources, wealth and environmental quality which together determine prospects for future economic growth and well-being. To illustrate the analytical capacity of...
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Dr. Janine Pelikan, of the Thunen Institute, Braunschweig has very kindly updated TASTE for GTAP 10. This TASTE version is based on ITC's MacMAP flows and applied tariffs for 2014. TASTE is a program, developed by Mark Horridge and... more
Dr. Janine Pelikan, of the Thunen Institute, Braunschweig has very kindly updated TASTE for GTAP 10. This TASTE version is based on ITC's MacMAP flows and applied tariffs for 2014. TASTE is a program, developed by Mark Horridge and David Laborde, that reads from the MAcMapsHS6 data, produced by ITC-Geneva. The TASTE program addresses two needs of GTAP users: 1) To prepare files of tariff shocks where GTAP users need information about bound rates (not part of GTAP) and applied rates at a detailed sectoral level (HS6). 2) To provide tariff data for SplitCom, which allows you to split one or more of the supplied 65 sectors in GTAP 10.
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TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottom-up" CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disag-gregated regional data while providing a quick... more
TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottom-up" CGE model of Australia which treats each region as a separate economy. TERM was created specifically to deal with highly disag-gregated regional data while providing a quick solution to simulations. This makes it a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks that may be region-specific. We include some details of how we prepared the TERM database, using a national input-output table, together with regional data showing output (for agriculture) and employment (in other sectors) for each of 144 sectors and 57 regions [the Australian statistical divisions]. Using a 38-sector, 45-region aggregation of the model, we simulate the short-run effects of the Australian drought of 2002-03, which was the most widespread for 20 years. The effects on some statistical divisions are extreme, with income losses of up to 20 per cent. Despite the relatively small share of agriculture in Australian GDP, the drought reduces GDP b...
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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a universal call to action to end poverty and protect the environment. The Government of Guatemala is prioritizing the SDGs it will focus on and defining lines of action to make progress... more
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are a universal call to action to end poverty and protect the environment. The Government of Guatemala is prioritizing the SDGs it will focus on and defining lines of action to make progress towards achieving them. In this paper, we apply the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modelling platform for Guatemala (IEEM-GUA) to evaluate the economic, environmental and wealth impacts of strategies for achieving the SDGs. We evaluate specific lines of action to achieve the second SDG to achieve food security and promote sustainable agriculture, and; the sixth SDG to achieve water and sanitation coverage for all. We find that significant new investment in these areas would be required to meeting these SDGs and that the overall pace of economic growth is critical. IEEM applied to the SDGs lends transparency and structure to the prioritization and agenda setting process. It sheds light on the need for complementary policies to reconcile lines of action ...
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We show how you can carry out systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to parameters and/or shocks, which vary according to a specified covariance matrix. You can use the existing SSA tools in RunGTAP or RunGEM to do this if... more
We show how you can carry out systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to parameters and/or shocks, which vary according to a specified covariance matrix. You can use the existing SSA tools in RunGTAP or RunGEM to do this if your model is implemented in GEMPACK. Those SSA tools assume that all parameters or shocks are varying independently (i.e., the distributions of all parameters or shocks are uncorrelated) or together (i.e., are completely correlated). The techniques in this paper remove those restrictions. However, users need to make small modifications to the TAB file for the model. Different modifications are needed for different SSA scenarios. Further, the standard SSA procedure built into RunGTAP and RunGEM allows you to compute the sensitivity of model results either with respect to variations in parameter values or with respect to variations in shock values, but you cannot vary both parameters and shocks at the same time. Our discussion concentrates on the parame...
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Preliminary GTAP 6.1 Interim Release Data Base documentation - not edited or formatted. Last update: 24 October 2005
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We describe the progress of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling software since the 1980s and contrast the main systems used today: GAMS, MPSGE, and GEMPACK. The development of these general-purpose modeling systems has... more
We describe the progress of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling software since the 1980s and contrast the main systems used today: GAMS, MPSGE, and GEMPACK. The development of these general-purpose modeling systems has underpinned rapid growth in the use of CGE models and allowed models to be shared and their results replicated. We show how a very simple model may be implemented and solved in all 3 systems. We note that they produce the same numerical results but have different strengths. We conclude by considering some challenges for the future
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File used in systematic sensitivity analysis. Users of RunGTAP Commercial Versions prior to 3.10 should replace their GTAP.SIN files with this revised version.
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The concurrence of major increases in ethanol production and world commodity price increases were captured by the ‘food-versus-fuel’ dilemma around 2008. Brazil is the largest producer of ethanol worldwide and still has vast tracts of... more
The concurrence of major increases in ethanol production and world commodity price increases were captured by the ‘food-versus-fuel’ dilemma around 2008. Brazil is the largest producer of ethanol worldwide and still has vast tracts of natural land available. This paper uses Brazil as case study to simulate food security and environmental impacts, especially on forests, of increased biofuel production. Results show that sugarcane production is concentrated in higher productivity regions so reaching the 2022 ethanol target would require only 0.07 Mha of new land, or 0.02% additional deforestation over baseline. Second, per-area production intensifies as land prices increase, indicating a nonlinear relationship between land area and production. Specifically, results indicate an average indirect land use change effect of 0.083 ha of new agricultural land for every 1.0 ha of additional sugarcane. Current discussions of biofuel expansion miss this critical point of intensification, which ...
Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functions are widely used to allocate land across uses in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. These models fail to maintain the physical area of land in balance. This paper examines... more
Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functions are widely used to allocate land across uses in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. These models fail to maintain the physical area of land in balance. This paper examines this issue. It shows that heterogeneity in land prices (rents) is the main source of imbalance in land area, not the curvature of the CET function. It also shows that the available approaches that restore balance to physical area either introduce ad hoc adjustments in land allocation or undermine the conventional welfare assessments of the CET results. An alternative approach involves implementing stochastic productivity distribution functions (e.g. Frechet) to allocate land among uses maintain area of land in balance, thereby respecting conventional welfare assessments. A particular feature of these models is that the aggregate production functions of the land using sectors exhibit decreasing returns to scale even if land is the only factor of product...
General-purpose software packages such as GEMPACK provide tools which allow modellers to concentrate on the economic issues without needing to write their own software. However, it may occasionally be necessary to write programs to carry... more
General-purpose software packages such as GEMPACK provide tools which allow modellers to concentrate on the economic issues without needing to write their own software. However, it may occasionally be necessary to write programs to carry out some specialised tasks which cannot be carried out using the general-purpose tools provided. Even then, programmers with access to a Source-code version of GEMPACK can make use of the many Fortran routines supplied with GEMPACK. This paper gives an introduction to using GEMPACK subroutines in writing your own Fortran programs. It gives a brief overview of some of the ideas behind the GEMPACK code such as error handling and to some of the routines available for opening, reading and writing Header Array files. By using standard GEMPACK routines, you can avoid knowing, in great detail, the structure of GEMPACK file types such as Header Array files. We provide and describe in detail two typical programs which illustrate the techniques involved. The ...
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This paper addresses the potential effects of world agricultural trade liberalization on poverty and regional income distribution in Brazil, using an inter-regional applied general equilibrium (AGE) and micro-simulation model of Brazil... more
This paper addresses the potential effects of world agricultural trade liberalization on poverty and regional income distribution in Brazil, using an inter-regional applied general equilibrium (AGE) and micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored for income distribution and poverty analysis. The representative household hypothesis was replaced by a detailed representation of households. The model distinguishes 10 different labor types, and has 270 different household expenditure patterns. Income can originate from 41 different production activities (which produce 52 commodities), located in 27 different regions in the country. The AGE model communicates to a micro-simulation model that has 112,055 Brazilian households and 263,938 adults. Poverty and income distribution indices are computed over the entire sample of households and persons, before and after the policy shocks. The simulated trade liberalization scenario has positive impacts on poverty in Brazil. The trade liberalization ...
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This is a guide to the variable dimension version of MMRF-GREEN, a dynamic multi-regional, fiscal model of the economy of Australia. We first detail the multi-regional core of the model. Then we introduce dynamics to the model. A section... more
This is a guide to the variable dimension version of MMRF-GREEN, a dynamic multi-regional, fiscal model of the economy of Australia. We first detail the multi-regional core of the model. Then we introduce dynamics to the model. A section on the fiscal extension of the model follows. A subsequent section details enhancements designed to improve the model's capability for environmental analysis.
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Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 1975, when the National Ethanol Program (Programa Nacional do Alcool – Proalcool) was created, the country has produced fuel ethanol on a large... more
Brazil has traditionally been one of the most important sugarcane and ethanol producers. Since 1975, when the National Ethanol Program (Programa Nacional do Alcool – Proalcool) was created, the country has produced fuel ethanol on a large scale. The increase in sugar exports in the nineties, which competed with inputs to ethanol production, caused rationing in the Brazilian ethanol market and a decline in consumption, which lasted until 2003. Since then the scenario for ethanol has again substantially changed. The development of flex-fuel engines (which can use either ethanol or gasoline) and the rise in oil prices granted new status to ethanol as a fuel in Brazil, allowing consumers to choose between both, depending on relative prices. According to a study of the Ministry of Energy and Mining (EPE, 2008a), in 2008 ethanol was already economically viable in 19 out of 26 states in Brazil. The expansion of the Brazilian economy in the last years dramatically increased the sales of new...
The ORANI-G CGE model is based on the Australian ORANI model described in the eponymous book by Dixon, Parmenter, Sutton and Vincent. ORANI-G is used as the basis of an annual course, conducted at Monash University, which simultaneously... more
The ORANI-G CGE model is based on the Australian ORANI model described in the eponymous book by Dixon, Parmenter, Sutton and Vincent. ORANI-G is used as the basis of an annual course, conducted at Monash University, which simultaneously introduces participants to the theory of general equilibrium models and to the techniques of solving them with GEMPACK. A monograph is available which describes and explains the model. There is a web page devoted to the model. ORANI-G has proved an excellent starting point for the construction of other single-country models. Various researchers have adapted it to a number of countries including Denmark, Philippines, Chinas, Korea, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Brazil, Vietnam, Pakistan, South Africa, Fiji and Thailand. The CRUSOE project extends the usefulness of ORANI-G by providing for it a series of databases covering 66 countries or world regions. These databases cover 10 sectors and are drawn from Version 5 of the GTAP database. The same TABLO...
GView is a free utility to browse encrypted GTAP data sets. The default GView utility comes with 2 sample aggregations of the GTAP data. Other aggregations are available in the GTAP Resource Center.
RunGTAP allows the user to run simulations interactively in a Windows environment using the GTAP general equilibrium model. No previous knowledge of the GEMPack language or programming skills is necessary to use the program. Results and... more
RunGTAP allows the user to run simulations interactively in a Windows environment using the GTAP general equilibrium model. No previous knowledge of the GEMPack language or programming skills is necessary to use the program. Results and complementary information for the analysis are also provided in a Windows environment and can be accessed interactively. Features of RunGTAP Demo version: Version Archives for storing a snapshot of your work or exchanging experiments with other RunGTAP users. User can edit shocks and closure directly, or paste into them. Choose any solution method. Choose from a range of parameter files for use in simulations. Edit the parameter file and save it with a new name for future use. Save and reload closures and experiments as well as shocks. Option to save all solution outputs in a ZIP file. Simple procedures to replicate a WinGEM simulation using RunGTAP. Access to Valerie Powers -- taxation consultant! Version 3.1 is suitable for Windows 98, NT, Me, and ...
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ABSTRACT The impact of European Union accession on regional income convergence within the Visegrad countries. Regional Studies. This paper applies regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate the growth of... more
ABSTRACT The impact of European Union accession on regional income convergence within the Visegrad countries. Regional Studies. This paper applies regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate the growth of regional per-capita income within the Visegrad group of countries. It shows how regional income differentials would evolve in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia if they did not join the European Union. We find that all regions would grow at a slower pace without European Union membership and that the European Union structural policies play a key role here. Finally, we prove the impact of accession on the evolution of regional income inequalities, although its magnitude differs significantly between countries.
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ORANI is an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model of the Australian economy which is widely used by academics and by economists in the government and private sectors. We describe a generic version of the model, ORANI-G, designed both... more
ORANI is an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model of the Australian economy which is widely used by academics and by economists in the government and private sectors. We describe a generic version of the model, ORANI-G, designed both for expository purposes and as a convenient starting-point for those wishing to construct their own AGE model. ORANI-G forms the basis of an annual modelling course, and has been adapted to build models of South Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Fiji, South Korea, Denmark, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and both Chinas. Our description of the model's equations and database is closely integrated with an explanation of how the model is solved. Indeed, the model equations are presented in the syntax, resembling ordinary algebraic notation, used by the GEMPACK modelling system to specify the model. The document includes: an outline of the structure of the model and of the appropriate interpretations of the results of comparative-static and forec...