Baruch Fischhoff
Carnegie Mellon University, Engineering and Public Policy, Faculty Member
... Publishing Corporation INFORMED CONSENT DOES NOT MEAN RATIONAL CONSENT Cognitive limitations on Decision-Making Jon F. Merz ... of lhe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and doctoral candidate in Engineering and Public Policy as Carnegie... more
... Publishing Corporation INFORMED CONSENT DOES NOT MEAN RATIONAL CONSENT Cognitive limitations on Decision-Making Jon F. Merz ... of lhe Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and doctoral candidate in Engineering and Public Policy as Carnegie Mellon University The ...
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... Login to save citations to My List. Citation. Database: PsycINFO. [Journal Article]. A comparative analysis of risk perception in Hungary and the United States. Englander, Tibor; Farago, Klara; Slovic, Paul; Fischhoff, Baruch. Social... more
... Login to save citations to My List. Citation. Database: PsycINFO. [Journal Article]. A comparative analysis of risk perception in Hungary and the United States. Englander, Tibor; Farago, Klara; Slovic, Paul; Fischhoff, Baruch. Social Behaviour, Vol 1(1), Sep 1986, 55-66. Abstract. ...
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ABSTRACT
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ABSTRACT A series of three experiments investigated the effect of information about one possible cause of an event on inferences regarding another possible cause. Experiment 1 showed that the presence of a second possible cause had no... more
ABSTRACT A series of three experiments investigated the effect of information about one possible cause of an event on inferences regarding another possible cause. Experiment 1 showed that the presence of a second possible cause had no effect on the perceived probability that the first possible cause influenced the event. However, if the second cause is cited as having definitely influenced the event, then the probability that the first possible cause influenced the event is reduced. Experiment 2 showed that the presence of a second possible cause does reduce the judged probability that a given cause was present at the time of an event. The final experiment revealed that the tendency (found in Experiment 1) to discount the involvement of the first cause given the involvement of a second cause diminishes when subjects were more highly motivated and confronted with their own discounting. These results are inconsistent with Kelley’s account of discounting and provide some support for a proposed explanatory heuristic, the principle of minimal causation. Users of this principle analyze a situation until they have identified a minimal set of sufficient causes; other possible causes are ignored or dismissed.(Report No. 77-11)
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Research Interests: Psychology, Communication, Decision Making, Informed Consent, Behavioral Medicine, and 19 moreComparative Study, Breast Implants, Complication, Humans, Belief, Female, Follow-up studies, Attitude, MENTAL MODEL, Risk factors, Clinical Sciences, Aged, Middle Aged, Risk Factor, Adult, Behavioral, Risk Factors, Personal Experience, and Postoperative Complications
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College students often delay or avoid seeking testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs), even if the services are readily available. We used in-depth, semistructured interviews to survey 41 college students aged 18 to 23 years... more
College students often delay or avoid seeking testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs), even if the services are readily available. We used in-depth, semistructured interviews to survey 41 college students aged 18 to 23 years about factors that influence decisions about STI testing. We grouped statements into 9 themes that represent influences on the decision. The most frequently mentioned factors were negative consequences of testing and perceived vulnerability to infection; other issues that influenced decision making included perceived benefits, perceived severity of diseases, public knowledge and opinion, social norms, provider characteristics, test-site characteristics, and personal considerations. Social stigmas and negative consequences appear to represent significant barriers to college students' being tested, which could increase the risk of spreading infections to others. Clinicians and health educators should raise students' awareness of the need for screening and should work to reduce the barriers to screening, including social stigmas and negative consequences.
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Page 1. Lay Foibles and Expert Fables in Judgments About Risk ... In doing so, it reaches a number of interim conclusions and draws forth their implications for the respective roles of technical experts and lay people in technology... more
Page 1. Lay Foibles and Expert Fables in Judgments About Risk ... In doing so, it reaches a number of interim conclusions and draws forth their implications for the respective roles of technical experts and lay people in technology management. ...
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Developmental Psychology 1993, Vol.29. No. 3,549-563 Copyright 1993 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 00I2-1649/93/S3.00 Perceived Consequences of Risky Behaviors: Adults and Adolescents Ruth Beyth-Marom, Laurel Austin,... more
Developmental Psychology 1993, Vol.29. No. 3,549-563 Copyright 1993 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 00I2-1649/93/S3.00 Perceived Consequences of Risky Behaviors: Adults and Adolescents Ruth Beyth-Marom, Laurel Austin, Baruch Fischhoff, Claire Palmgren, and ...
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Research Interests: Bias and Sensitivity
... All but five of the 71 subjects were at least somewhat overconfident; only six could be described as 'pretty well calibrated'. (Author)*INSTRUCTIONS. Accession Number : ADA102255. Title : The Effects of Gender and... more
... All but five of the 71 subjects were at least somewhat overconfident; only six could be described as 'pretty well calibrated'. (Author)*INSTRUCTIONS. Accession Number : ADA102255. Title : The Effects of Gender and Instructions on Calibration. Descriptive Note : Technical rept.,. ...
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... Page 8. MODELING SOCIETAL IMPACT OF FATAL ACCIDENTS 471 TABLE 2 Effect of Informativeness on the Impact of Catastrophic Mishaps ... Known but not dread hazards included skateboards, power mowers, tractors, bicycles, automobiles, and... more
... Page 8. MODELING SOCIETAL IMPACT OF FATAL ACCIDENTS 471 TABLE 2 Effect of Informativeness on the Impact of Catastrophic Mishaps ... Known but not dread hazards included skateboards, power mowers, tractors, bicycles, automobiles, and recreational boating. ...
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Previous studies have suggested that the general public misinterprets probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts, leading some meteorologists to argue that probabilities should not be included in public weather forecasts. Upon closer... more
Previous studies have suggested that the general public misinterprets probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts, leading some meteorologists to argue that probabilities should not be included in public weather forecasts. Upon closer examination, however, these studies prove to be ambiguous with regard to the nature of the misunderstanding. Is the public confused about the meaning of the probabilities or about the definition of the event to which the probabilities refer? If event misinterpretation is the source of the confusion, then elimination of the probabilities would not reduce the level of misunderstanding.The present paper summarizes a study of 79 residents of Eugene, Oreg., who completed a questionnaire designed to investigate their understanding of and attitude toward precipitation probability forecasts. Results indicate that the event in question frequently is misunderstood, with both traditional precipitation forecasts and PoP forecasts producing similar levels of event misinterpretation. On the other hand, the probabilities themselves are well understood. Moreover, most respondents revealed a preference for the use of probabilities to express the uncertainty inherent in precipitation forecasts. Although the sample size was limited, the results of this study strongly support the inclusion of probabilities in public forecasts of precipitation occurrence. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some implications of these results for operational weather forecasting.
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Formal analyses can be valuable aids to decision-making if their limits are understood. Those limits arise from the two forms of subjectivity found in all analyses: ethical judgments, made when setting the terms of an analysis, and... more
Formal analyses can be valuable aids to decision-making if their limits are understood. Those limits arise from the two forms of subjectivity found in all analyses: ethical judgments, made when setting the terms of an analysis, and scientific judgments, made when conducting it. As formal analysis has assumed a larger role in policy decisions, awareness of those judgments has grown, as have methods for making them. The present review traces these developments, using examples that illustrate the issues that arise when designing, executing, and interpreting analyses. It concludes with lessons learned from the science and practice of analysis. One common thread in these lessons is the importance of collaborative processes, whereby analysts and decision-makers educate one another about their respective needs and capabilities.
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... Its method seemed relatively straightforward: pose a clear question; offer clear response options; report the responses. ... thereby lacking conciseness), omits things that respondents could not confidently infer, or misleads... more
... Its method seemed relatively straightforward: pose a clear question; offer clear response options; report the responses. ... thereby lacking conciseness), omits things that respondents could not confidently infer, or misleads respondents (or even gives the appearance of dishonesty ...
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Page 1. I LEVE& Technical Report PTR-1002-S1-6 in CALIBRATION OF PROBABILITIES:- 4 TIHE STAT! OF THE ART TO 1080 Sarah Lichtensteinl, Baruch Flschhoff and Lawrence D. Phil~p4. I Sponsored by OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH/ under Contract... more
Page 1. I LEVE& Technical Report PTR-1002-S1-6 in CALIBRATION OF PROBABILITIES:- 4 TIHE STAT! OF THE ART TO 1080 Sarah Lichtensteinl, Baruch Flschhoff and Lawrence D. Phil~p4. I Sponsored by OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH/ under Contract No. NOO14-SC-015 ...
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One major difference between historical and nonhistorical judgment is that the historical judge typically knows how things turned out. In Experiment 1, receipt of such outcome knowledge was found to increase the postdicted likelihood of... more
One major difference between historical and nonhistorical judgment is that the historical judge typically knows how things turned out. In Experiment 1, receipt of such outcome knowledge was found to increase the postdicted likelihood of reported events and change the perceived ...
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Research Interests: Perception, Education, Health Behavior, Research Methodology, Mental Health, and 16 moreBehavior, Risk, Risk Taking, Health, Adolescent Health, Public Health, Vulnerability, Health Policy, Adolescent, Population, Humans, Drug Addiction, Risk factors, Risk Factor, Risk Factors, and Adolescent Behavior
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The common denominator of a growing number of hard decisions facing modern societies is the need to determine how safe is safe enough. The author begins by defining acceptable-risk problems and analyzing why they are so difficult to... more
The common denominator of a growing number of hard decisions facing modern societies is the need to determine how safe is safe enough. The author begins by defining acceptable-risk problems and analyzing why they are so difficult to resolve, considering such issues as uncertainty about their definition, lack of relevant facts, conflicting social values, and disagreements between technical experts and