Robert Gougelet

ABSTRACT This paper introduces an early prototype of a decision support tool (DST) for evaluating the effectiveness and logistical considerations of biodosimetry methods. Biodosimetry methods allow the estimation of an individual's radiation exposure and facilitate the process of screening the population into treatment categories following a potential large-scale nuclear or radiological event. The DST was implemented using STELLA® software with preliminary comparisons among six biodosimetry methods, including the current federal guidelines. Preliminary results under the model's assumptions show a great variability among methods on their efficiency for screening large numbers of potential victims. In the future, a revised version of the DST would be a useful tool for the emergency response community to evaluate the effectiveness of various strategies for preattack stockpiling and capacity building, and postattack distribution and dispensing of biodosimetry technologies.

Few natural disasters or intentional acts of war or terrorism have the potential for such severe impact upon a population and infrastructure as the intentional detonation of a nuclear device within a major U.S. city. In stark contrast to other disasters or even a "dirty bomb," hundreds of thousands will be affected and potentially exposed to a clinically significant dose of ionizing radiation. This will result in immediate deaths and injuries and subsequently the development of Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS). Additionally, millions more who are unlikely to develop ARS will seek medical evaluation and treatment, overwhelming the capacity of an already compromised medical system. In this paper, the authors propose that in vivo electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) dosimetry be utilized to screen large numbers of potentially exposed victims, and that this screening process be incorporated into the medical-surge framework that is currently being implemented across the nation for other catastrophic public health emergencies. The National Incident Management System (NIMS), the National Response Framework (NRF), the Target Capabilities List (TCL), Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPD), as well as additional guidance from multiple federal agencies provide a solid framework for this response. The effective screening of potentially-exposed victims directly following a nuclear attack could decrease the number of patients seeking immediate medical care by greater than 90%.

Recognition is growing regarding the possibility that terrorism or large-scale accidents could result in potential radiation exposure of hundreds of thousands of people and that the present guidelines for evaluation after such an event are seriously deficient. Therefore, there is a great and urgent need for after-the-fact biodosimetric methods to estimate radiation dose. To accomplish this goal, the dose estimates must be at the individual level, timely, accurate, and plausibly obtained in large-scale disasters. This paper evaluates current biodosimetry methods, focusing on their strengths and weaknesses in estimating human radiation exposure in large-scale disasters at three stages. First, the authors evaluate biodosimetry's ability to determine which individuals did not receive a significant exposure so they can be removed from the acute response system. Second, biodosimetry's capacity to classify those initially assessed as needing further evaluation into treatment-level categories is assessed. Third, we review biodosimetry's ability to guide treatment, both short- and long-term, is reviewed. The authors compare biodosimetric methods that are based on physical vs. biological parameters and evaluate the features of current dosimeters (capacity, speed and ease of getting information, and accuracy) to determine which are most useful in meeting patients' needs at each of the different stages. Results indicate that the biodosimetry methods differ in their applicability to the three different stages, and that combining physical and biological techniques may sometimes be most effective. In conclusion, biodosimetry techniques have different properties, and knowledge of their properties for meeting the different needs for different stages will result in their most effective use in a nuclear disaster mass-casualty event.

There is growing awareness of the need for methodologies that can be used retrospectively to provide the biodosimetry needed to carry out screening and triage immediately after an event in which large numbers of people have potentially received clinically significant doses of ionizing radiation. The general approach to developing such methodologies has been a technology centric one, often ignoring the system integrations considerations that are key to their effective use. In this study an integrative approach for the evaluation and development of a physical biodosimetry technology was applied based on in vivo electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) dosimetry. The EPR measurements are based on physical changes in tissues whose magnitudes are not affected by the factors that can confound biologically-based assessments. In this study the use of a pilot simulation exercise to evaluate an experimental EPR system and gather stakeholders' feedback early on in the development process is described. The exercise involved: ten non-irradiated participants, representatives from a local fire department; Department of Homeland Security certified exercise evaluators, EPR experts, physicians; and a human factors engineer. Stakeholders were in agreement that the EPR technology in its current state of development could be deployed for the screening of mass casualties. Furthermore, stakeholders' recommendations will be prioritized and incorporated in future developments of the EPR technique. While the results of this exercise were aimed specifically at providing feedback for the development of EPR dosimetry for screening mass casualties, the methods and lessons learned are likely to be applicable to other biodosimetric methods.