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ABSTRACT The paper outlines the theoretical underpinnings of an urban mass transit revenue and ridership model designed to provide medium term forecasts of future trends in situations of data sparsity. The specific example laid out in the... more
ABSTRACT The paper outlines the theoretical underpinnings of an urban mass transit revenue and ridership model designed to provide medium term forecasts of future trends in situations of data sparsity. The specific example laid out in the paper relates to the Greater Vancouver Regional District but the framework is of general applicability. Much of the informational input at the initial stage is of a general kind and details of the specific transit system and local area are of the sort which should be readily available to most urban authorities. The model developed is designed for use on a desk‐top micro‐computer and offers an inter‐active method of forecasting. The operator has the facility to both consider fare policy sensitivity and review alternative scenarios about future trends in exogenous factors. A selection of forecasts developed for the GVRD is provided to reveal the main features of the approach.
This article has attempted to set out the recent developments in the liberalization of the UK industry in the specific context of contestability theory. In doing so it has offered some general discussion as to just how inherently... more
This article has attempted to set out the recent developments in the liberalization of the UK industry in the specific context of contestability theory. In doing so it has offered some general discussion as to just how inherently contestable the bus market (or more accurately, the various bus markets) is and relate this to the post-deregulation story. More specifically, however, it has made an effort to consider the problems posed by market change--in other words the reality of moving from a long established and highly regulated market to one approximating that of a contestable model.
As part of the process in deciding about public policy and private management to reduce danger at work, most previous studies have adopted compensating values. This assumes that society or individuals implicitly or explicitly use a value... more
As part of the process in deciding about public policy and private management to reduce danger at work, most previous studies have adopted compensating values. This assumes that society or individuals implicitly or explicitly use a value of life equal to the amount of money they are willing to pay to reduce the risk of accidents or mortality. Here, labour market-based evidence on values of life is examined by applying two meta-analysis techniques.
This paper provides an overview of the scope, motivations, techniques and trends in traffic control devices and management. Traffic control, whether highway, air or other mode, is necessary since without regulation there would be higher... more
This paper provides an overview of the scope, motivations, techniques and trends in traffic control devices and management. Traffic control, whether highway, air or other mode, is necessary since without regulation there would be higher costs and chaos. A code of enforceable law with effective policing is necessary to prevent undesirable effects on the transportation system as well as on society as a whole. Control devices and management tools, both physical and legal, have emerged to tackle a variety of problems associated with traffic. In many cases there is no single instrument that is automatically seen as a mechanism of controlling traffic. Instead, selection of one or a combination of measures depends upon their perceived effectiveness in meeting a specific objective. Both the instruments available for traffic control and the way in which traffic is managed are changing, in part because of changing priorities on the part of transportation policymakers. For example, more emphas...
The process of urbanisation in both the developed Western world and the less developed areas of Africa, Asia and South America is creating immense difficulties for urban authorities. Before looking at these problems, it is first important... more
The process of urbanisation in both the developed Western world and the less developed areas of Africa, Asia and South America is creating immense difficulties for urban authorities. Before looking at these problems, it is first important to understand the economic forces at work causing this expansion in the urban population. The explanation is not simple and is not entirely economic in nature. The reasons why urbanisation occurs are complex and it would be incorrect to pretend that they are yet fully understood; nevertheless, some general principles are beginning to emerge.
Public and specialist concern with the urban environment has grown again in recent years and increasingly economists are being drawn into the new debate. There are two main issues being raised: have urban environmental standards declined... more
Public and specialist concern with the urban environment has grown again in recent years and increasingly economists are being drawn into the new debate. There are two main issues being raised: have urban environmental standards declined to unacceptable levels and, assuming they have, how should improvements be achieved? A very clear, and apparently irreconcilable, dichotomy of opinion has emerged within the economic profession over both the gravity of the situation and the appropriate economic action required. Members of one school talk of the dereliction of the city and advocate the abandonment of traditional economic principles and the adoption of more direct controls to alleviate urban pollution and congestion. The alternative view, held primarily by Professor Wilfred Beckerman in the United Kingdom and Edwin Mills in the United States, is that any sub-optimality in urban environmental standards is the result of distortions within various economic markets and that the situation ...
The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which the conventional treatment of highway congestion, as developed in the economic analysis of road pricing, provides an acceptable theoretical or practical foundation for policy.... more
The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which the conventional treatment of highway congestion, as developed in the economic analysis of road pricing, provides an acceptable theoretical or practical foundation for policy. The conventional theory is first outlined, and it is emphasised that, although it is probably technically sound, it relates to highly abstract circumstances. The main body of the paper then develops two themes. First, a number of arguments are put forward that imply that, in quantitative if not qualitative terms, the conventional analysis of congestion seems unlikely to provide an adequate basis for the proper formulation of policy. Second, some reasons for regarding congestion as an effective allocative mechanism in its own right are given. Although the arguments in the paper are not developed sufficiently far to reach firm conclusions of an operational kind, there are clear indications that traffic management and related policies aimed at securing e...
After the previous introductory chapters we will now treat in more detail the essence of meta-analysis. The term meta-analysis was first introduced by Glass in 1976, although the idea of analyzing statistically large quantities of... more
After the previous introductory chapters we will now treat in more detail the essence of meta-analysis. The term meta-analysis was first introduced by Glass in 1976, although the idea of analyzing statistically large quantities of scientific publications dates back from the early 1970s. Glass (1976) provides a widely accepted definition: “Meta-analysis refers to the statistical analysis of a large collection of results from individual studies for the purpose of integrating the findings. It connotes a rigorous alternative to the casual, narrative discussions of research studies which typify our attempts to make sense of the rapidly expanding research literature.”
This chapter deals with the relationship between uncertainty, measurement theory, and decisions in the context of meta-analysis. The potential usefulness of meta-analysis in environmental science and economics may be particularly relevant... more
This chapter deals with the relationship between uncertainty, measurement theory, and decisions in the context of meta-analysis. The potential usefulness of meta-analysis in environmental science and economics may be particularly relevant for research cases which incorporate imprecision in information.
The previous chapter was concerned with maximising the efficiency of urban freight transport from a purely financial point of view. Essentially, it was looking at techniques and procedures which vehicle operators can adopt to maximise... more
The previous chapter was concerned with maximising the efficiency of urban freight transport from a purely financial point of view. Essentially, it was looking at techniques and procedures which vehicle operators can adopt to maximise their profits. This, however, is a very narrow objective. As we saw in Chapter 3, the movement of freight within urban concentrations affects a considerable number of people, most of whom have no direct connection with the freight industry as such. In this chapter, we initially extend the scope of our theoretical analysis to consider this much wider dimension and look, not at optimising procedures for the operator alone, but at more general policies for maximising the net benefits of freight movement for the entire community irrespective of whether they are shippers, hauliers or simply residents.
Meta-analysis seems to be an appealing approach, but despite its potential there are several questions of a methodological nature which need to be addressed in greater detail. In this chapter the methodological issues of meta-approaches... more
Meta-analysis seems to be an appealing approach, but despite its potential there are several questions of a methodological nature which need to be addressed in greater detail. In this chapter the methodological issues of meta-approaches for environmental case studies are discussed. First, it deals with the intrinsic methodological complexity inherent to meta-approaches. This complexity is closely linked with the high level of transversality characterizing meta-analysis, both horizontally — especially identification, selection and analysis of the case studies under consideration — and vertically — notably identification and description of the problem to be studied, definition of the objectives of the study, and practical use of the results obtained. Six different levels of analysis can be distinguished in a meta-analytical approach; for each of these levels the characteristic methodological issues will be identified. In addition, the chapter sets out the range of alternative meta-analytical techniques Finally, some concluding remarks are offered.
A detailed examination is provided of the ways in which economic theory may be applied to transport problems. After the introductory first chapter, the 2nd chapter provides a general survey of transport economics, highlighting the... more
A detailed examination is provided of the ways in which economic theory may be applied to transport problems. After the introductory first chapter, the 2nd chapter provides a general survey of transport economics, highlighting the particular fragments of economic theory which have been drawn upon to examine transport problems. The next four chapters offer case study material. Chapters 3 and 5 (road pricing in Singapore and interurban road investment, respectively) illustrate applications of welfare economics to transport problems. Chapter 4 (railway investment) focuses on the introduction of new technology in an old established transport sector. Chapter 6 (shipping conferences) explores the usefulness of industrial economics. Further, the selection attempts to highlight the universality of many of the economic principles involved. The studies illustrate both short term and long term problems, and look at management and control of existing resources, as well as the decisions which mu...
The theory of city size has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. The literature has concentrated on two distinct but nevertheless related issues. The first of these involves the definition of the most desirable ‘optimal’... more
The theory of city size has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. The literature has concentrated on two distinct but nevertheless related issues. The first of these involves the definition of the most desirable ‘optimal’ city size. Discussion of this question has been far-ranging, involving not just economists but also sociologists, town planners, social psychologists and ecologists to name but a few. In a purely practical sense it is particularly difficult to reach any firm conclusion in this area because of the lack of really relevant information and the immense difficulty of quantifying many of the considerations important to the debate. These are problems additional to the theoretical difficulties involved, but the lack of a solution in the short term suggests it is unlikely that any of the various theories of optimality which have been advanced will be empirically substantiated in the foreseeable future. These practical and theoretical problems often distract from the far more important question of whether an optimum size of city can ever be defined satisfactorily or, indeed, whether it is important to attempt such a definition. The general argument to justify work in this area is that local authorities need some idea of the optimal-size population they should encourage to settle in their cities but, as we shall see later, this can lead to various conflicts of interest.
Chapter 2 has been concerned with outlining the main reasons why firms and individuals congregate to form cities. We now turn to look at why, once the decision to locate in a city has been made, particular urban sites are chosen. This... more
Chapter 2 has been concerned with outlining the main reasons why firms and individuals congregate to form cities. We now turn to look at why, once the decision to locate in a city has been made, particular urban sites are chosen. This chapter is therefore concerned with intra-urban location theory and practice. Some firms are obviously restricted in their location choices by the availability of local resources; many local utilities fall into this category, as do extractive industries. We are less concerned with these firms and concentrate on those which have a fairly high degree of mobility and can choose between alternative sites.
In the previous three chapters we have concentrated on microeconomic theory, discussing in particular the location and production decisions of firms and of individuals. We now turn to look at the urban macroeconomy and specifically at the... more
In the previous three chapters we have concentrated on microeconomic theory, discussing in particular the location and production decisions of firms and of individuals. We now turn to look at the urban macroeconomy and specifically at the mechanisms underlying economic growth. The models we consider tend to assume a free market with no government direction and control and perfect mobility of both people and factors of production; unfortunately for economists these conditions are less common today than they were a century or so ago. The advent of urban planning has meant that many towns and cities expanded and developed in a semi-controlled environment, under the influence of either local or central government. The New Towns of the twentieth century are a classic example of urban centres developing in previously small villages offering little natural growth potential in the traditional sense—their growth has been induced by deliberate policy. Does this mean that the theories outlined below are of only academic interest? The answer is a firm no. Urban economic-growth models are important if we are to understand how cities developed in the past and they are still of use to planners and economists today. When planners decide to either alter the land usage in an existing city or to develop an entirely new centre, they need theories of growth to enable them to predict the effects of their actions in the longer term, for the urban centre itself, but also for its surrounding hinterland.
An American observer once stated that: Modern urban man is born in a publicly financed hospital, receives his education in a publicly supported school and university, spends a good part of his life travelling on publicly built... more
An American observer once stated that: Modern urban man is born in a publicly financed hospital, receives his education in a publicly supported school and university, spends a good part of his life travelling on publicly built transportation facilities, communicates through the post office or the quasi-public telephone system, drinks his public water, disposes of his garbage through the public removal system, reads his public library books, picnics in his public parks, is protected by his public police, fire, and health systems; eventually he dies, again in a hospital, and may even be buried in a public cemetery. Ideological conservatives notwithstanding, his everyday life is inextricably bound up with governmental decisions on these and numerous other local public services (Tietz [1968] p. 36).
Besides containing industry and commerce, cities are concentrations of people, and the urban labour market determines whether these people will have work and, if so, the wage rate they will be paid. In less developed countries the... more
Besides containing industry and commerce, cities are concentrations of people, and the urban labour market determines whether these people will have work and, if so, the wage rate they will be paid. In less developed countries the paramount problem is providing sufficient employment for the rapidly expanding urban populations; in the Western world the economist is more interested in labour flows between urban areas and between jobs within urban concentrations and with wage differentials between various forms of employment at different locations. This chapter concentrates on these latter problems.
Transport does not only create congestion in many countries, but also imposes itself in many other ways on society. The environmental impacts range from local effects such as traffic noise, odour, vibration, lead, benzene, community... more
Transport does not only create congestion in many countries, but also imposes itself in many other ways on society. The environmental impacts range from local effects such as traffic noise, odour, vibration, lead, benzene, community severence and visual intrusion, through a range of transboundary effects such as nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions, to global pollutants such as carbon dioxide (CO2). It is often seen as a major influence on location decisions and on the spatial distribution of economic development. Additionally, there are efficiency considerations within transport itself especially concerning sub-optimal levels of congestion which waste time and other resources.
This paper discuses how developing a transport policy for a set of economically related but essentially independent states poses a particular set of questions. At one level there is the issue of whether the European Union (EU) area... more
This paper discuses how developing a transport policy for a set of economically related but essentially independent states poses a particular set of questions. At one level there is the issue of whether the European Union (EU) area represents anything like a natural economic market for transport services while at the other level are the problems of overcoming national priorities and legacies. Nevertheless, for an economic union to be fully effective and for trade between members to be conducted efficiently there is the need for at least a reasonable degree of coordination of transport policies. The underlying economic of a common market were recognized at the outset; the problem has been one of moving from a set of fairly well-established broad economic concepts to a tractable policy position. Consensus needs make this difficult in conditions where from a short-term economic perspective there are pressures in each Member State towards protecting the status qua and, in the longer ter...
This chapter provides a technical background to rough set analysis, the basic principles of which were outlined in Chapter 7. The technicalities of the method are set out in Section 8.2. This is followed by a reflection on the management... more
This chapter provides a technical background to rough set analysis, the basic principles of which were outlined in Chapter 7. The technicalities of the method are set out in Section 8.2. This is followed by a reflection on the management of thresholds in Section 8.3. In addition, the chapter evaluates the advantages of rough set analysis in comparison with more traditional ways of dealing with incomplete data sets (Sections 8.4 and 8.5) in order to support the use of this method in several of the case studies set out in later chapters of the book. The advantages of the rough set approach compared with the fuzzy set approach are reviewed in Section 8.4, while Section 8.5 deals with the merits of the rough set approach relative to the traditional method of statistical analysis.
Since the beginning of the 1970s environmental economists have devoted considerable effort to assessing the cost of environmental damage and the benefits of environmental policy. The economic concept of value underlying these costs and... more
Since the beginning of the 1970s environmental economists have devoted considerable effort to assessing the cost of environmental damage and the benefits of environmental policy. The economic concept of value underlying these costs and benefits is usually based on neoclassical welfare economics. Direct economic valuation approaches or methods have usually been based on market data. Indirect methods have been based on complementarity or substitution relationships between marketed goods or services and environmental quality, and have led to a variety of empirical methods, the most common of which include travel cost techniques and hedonic property and wage models (see also Chapter 11). For more details see Freeman (1993).
Public policy regarding the urban transport problem has undergone important changes over the past thirty years. From one perspective the perception of the urban transport problem has widened, as issues such as environmental protection,... more
Public policy regarding the urban transport problem has undergone important changes over the past thirty years. From one perspective the perception of the urban transport problem has widened, as issues such as environmental protection, safety and and problems in financing public transport provision have been added to the more traditional concern of excessive traffic congestion. Nevertheless, traffic congestion remains at the forefront of policy analysis, although here too there has been a change in perspective, in this case in relation to the appropriate emphasis public policy should take. In the past, policy has often centred on expanding the infrastructure for traffic, adopting technologies which increase the capacity of the existing network and on attempting to make public modes more attractive. The shift has recently been towards containing traffic growth by discouraging the use of the private car either through physical restraints or by the adoption of fiscal measures.
In Chapter 2 we discussed how the volume and pattern of freight operations is likely to be influenced strongly by the interplay of economic factors. One of the chief of these economic factors is cost. In this chapter, we shall be... more
In Chapter 2 we discussed how the volume and pattern of freight operations is likely to be influenced strongly by the interplay of economic factors. One of the chief of these economic factors is cost. In this chapter, we shall be concerned with the costs of urban freight movement. The costs which will be discussed, however, are not just those which directly influence freight movements (for example, fuel costs), but also those which freight movement itself imposes on urban society and which may not, for a number of reasons, feed back fully as payments to be made by the supplier or the user of the services concerned.
Most textbooks of economic theory start by attempting to define what economics is about. Although it is unlikely that any very brief statement will do full justice to the subject, it is, nevertheless, a useful way to begin a discussion of... more
Most textbooks of economic theory start by attempting to define what economics is about. Although it is unlikely that any very brief statement will do full justice to the subject, it is, nevertheless, a useful way to begin a discussion of economics, and in our case, a discussion of how some of the basic ideas developed in economic theory can throw some light on the very complex characteristics of urban freight transport. Economics is essentially concerned with how individuals and groups of individuals make choices about how they allocate scarce resources to different forms of production, and also about how they distribute what is produced for consumption between different groups and between now and the future. Central to the act of production is the idea that certain groups are prepared to supply commodities for others. Central to the act of consumption is the concept of demand. A great deal of insight can be gained merely by formalising the interaction between supply and demand for a given commodity and analysing the behaviour of the resulting market. This is undertaken in Section 2.2. Then, in Section 2.3, we examine consumer behaviour in order to gain a deeper understanding of demand and in the following section we examine in more detail the concept of cost, since this is a major influence on supply. Section 2.5 investigates how firms will behave when they are operating in different types of market; and, finally, Section 2.6 looks at the theory of second-best, which is just one part of the question of how society may want to adjust the outcome of the basic working of the economy in order to improve the general level of social welfare. Further treatment of welfare economics is given in Section 6.1.
There is little need to re-emphasise that the demand for freight services is derived in nature and that, in consequence, any consideration of demand cannot be treated in isolation from the demand for the final products carried. In this... more
There is little need to re-emphasise that the demand for freight services is derived in nature and that, in consequence, any consideration of demand cannot be treated in isolation from the demand for the final products carried. In this chapter, we concentrate on demand and consider in detail just how the demand for freight transport is generated and how planners and economists attempt to analyse this demand. Because freight transport is closely interrelated with land-use patterns, it is important when considering the demand for freight services to consider at the same time the influences affecting industrial location and distribution decisions. In doing this, we immediately return to one of the oldest and most fundamental problems of applied economics: the identification of the demand relationship and its separation from the supply schedule (see Working, 1927). Not only are there difficulties within the freight sector itself (e.g. does an increase in the amount of goods carried result from an increase in demand or an outward shift in supply?), but the derived nature of demand and the involved interaction between transport and land-use add further complexities impossible to disentangle completely in the real world.
In the previous chapters we have been concerned with setting out details of the nature of the urban freight transport market and with outlining an economic and operational framework within which its performance may be studied. This... more
In the previous chapters we have been concerned with setting out details of the nature of the urban freight transport market and with outlining an economic and operational framework within which its performance may be studied. This chapter is somewhat different. Whereas in the other sections we have been concerned with methods of analysis and with describing current trends and developments in urban goods vehicle movements, in the following pages we seek to consider the future direction in which freight transport is likely to move. We are not concerned so much with pure speculation but rather attempt to assess the likely long-term effects of measures which have already been taken and of trends already under way.
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ABSTRACT This short paper is concerned with the problem of improving the methods currently used to price port facilities. It presents a simple economic model of how an optimal pricing policy may be arrived at, employing an adaptation of... more
ABSTRACT This short paper is concerned with the problem of improving the methods currently used to price port facilities. It presents a simple economic model of how an optimal pricing policy may be arrived at, employing an adaptation of an interactive supply-demand framework initially developed in the context of allocating car-parking places in urban areas. The model demonstrates the basic economic tenet that charges should be set equal to the full marginal social opportunity cost (M.S.O.C.) of facilities used, with premiums added where capacity restrictions would otherwise lead to excessive queueing. The use of a probability demand curve shows that one of the main fears of the anti-pricing school, namely excessive resource misallocation due to miscalcuations of the marginal cost, tends to be exaggerated. Further, it is argued that many of the other arguments set out against marginal cost pricing of ports are either ill-founded or unlikely to be of practical importance—ports are little different to other goods and services consumed in the economy and standard economic policies apply to them.
ABSTRACT Economic multipliers are widely used in regional impact and policy analysis. A substantial literature has developed, defining multipliers and offering guidelines on estimation. This has also been tied to developments in regional... more
ABSTRACT Economic multipliers are widely used in regional impact and policy analysis. A substantial literature has developed, defining multipliers and offering guidelines on estimation. This has also been tied to developments in regional growth theory, economic impact analysis, and input output analysis. The importance of regional multiplier analysis is likely to grow as infrastructure programmes are seen as important inputs into economic productivity growth initiatives and as fiscal transfers take on a more prominent role in economic integrations (e.g., the European Union, NAFTA, and the African Union). This paper is concerned with the problems of defining appropriate multiplicands, the initial injections that drive multipliers, at the regional level. Setting aside the literature on the export growth model, this aspect of impact analysis has been relatively neglected. The study presented here, of environmental expenditures in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, looks at some of the problems of using publicly available data to develop and derive a meaningful multiplicand.
ABSTRACT This article looks at factors which have affected the shares of public and private money that have been going into public–private transportation partnership investments in the US. It looks at a number of recent partnerships and... more
ABSTRACT This article looks at factors which have affected the shares of public and private money that have been going into public–private transportation partnership investments in the US. It looks at a number of recent partnerships and relates the importance of the private sector to sets of institutional and technical variables.

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