Amit Tubi

Research is increasingly approaching migration as an adaptation to climate risk. Yet our understanding of the migration-adaptation nexus remains limited, as most studies conceptualize migration as either adaptive or maladaptive and focus on specific aspects of vulnerability. To advance a comprehensive understanding of migration's successful and maladaptive effects, this study employs a two-dimensional conceptualization of migration outcomes, encompassing a range of vulnerability variables at the migrant and household levels and migrants' well-being. This framework is applied to the case of drought-influenced migration from agro-pastoralist northern Kenya to the City of Nairobi. Based on semi-structured interviews with 40 long-term migrants, we identify quantitative and qualitative migration-induced changes in the examined variables. The results highlight the complexity of migration outcomes. Effects on the broad range of variables comprising vulnerability's exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components are mixed. Migrants' ability to provide their families' basic needs has improved, although only half of the households could allocate remittances to reconstruct their drought-stricken livelihood sources in northern Kenya. Moreover, the profound change in social-environmental settings induced by migration exposed migrants to unfamiliar risks, such as urban crime, but also to new sources of adaptive capacity, such as knowledge enabling the development of climate-insensitive livelihoods. However, migration's partial success in reducing vulnerability came at the expense of migrants' well-being, which diminished drastically. These findings stress the need for fundamental changes in the migration-as-adaptation literature, including a more thorough engagement with the temporalities and scope of migration's effects on adaptation, greater attention to the tradeoffs that are integral to migration as adaptation, and a shift to analytical frameworks that consider maladaptive effects alongside successful ones. We argue that these changes are essential to develop interventions that maximize migration's adaptive potential while minimizing its maladaptive effects.

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies' responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action. To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.

A 60 year minimum temperature record of 11 stations in inner Eurasia enabled the characterization of the Siberian High (SH) intensity. The decline in the SH intensity is observed in tandem with the positive mode of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), both increasing in recent years. The coldest 1968–1969 winter in the 60 year period corresponds with the lowest AO annual index value. Spatial correlation analyses indicate that enhanced cyclogenetic conditions over the eastern flank of the Icelandic Low (IL) are associated with a milder SH. Seasonal composite analyses of the circulation pattern during the coldest 1968–1969 winter are characterized by a retreat of the IL, allowing a westward expansion of the SH cold core. A robust methodology, assuring an adequate representation of extremely cold spells in both their extent and duration, was developed. This methodology yielded three exceptional events, the most severe one lasting 10 days and affecting all stations in the SH domain. Analysing this event on a fine temporal resolution enabled the detection of short‐term synoptic scale processes, such as the polar air mass penetration, resulting in a mean minimum temperature of − 40 °C over the whole domain. This short‐term polar air incursion and its termination featuring this spell, as modulated by the location of the IL, point at its important role in modifying the SH. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Migration is increasingly viewed an adaptation strategy. Much of the migration-as-adaptation research applies a climate risk analytical lens, examining to what extent migration is a successful/adaptive response that reduces vulnerability or a failed/maladaptive response that increases vulnerability. However, this body of research has largely failed to examine migration outcomes through the eyes of those who migrate, thereby yielding insights that are potentially disconnected from their realities and desirable futures. To address this gap, this study focuses on the case of drought-influenced migration from agro-pastoralist northern Kenya to the City of Nairobi. Applying a thematic analysis based on semi-structured interviews with 38 long-term migrants, we examine how migrants perceive ‘success’ and ‘failure’ in the context of migration as a response to the impacts of drought. The findings show that migrants’ success perceptions focus on the improvement of their families’ economic sec...

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies' responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action. To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.
To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.

Abstract As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems’ prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, there is limited understanding of the factors that underlie such changes. This study sheds light on these factors by examining the case of Israel – a largely arid to semi-arid country with highly scarce natural water resources and a historical rural-agricultural ideology. Adopting an historically-informed systems perspective, I analyze two transformations that diminished Israel’s vulnerability to recurring droughts: the 1960s’ economic transformation from agriculture to industry, and the shift to seawater desalination in the mid-2000s. These changes are examined using causal-loop diagrams based on multiple data sources, including archival records, statistical reports and a systematic review of grey and academic literature. The findings show that both transformations, instigated by state institutions during exceptionally severe droughts, were driven by shifts away from development paradigms embedded in the nation-building ideology, as well as by social stresses that exceeded the natural limits of the agricultural system and water supply system. Repeated drought shocks activated and later reactivated the shift to desalination, intended to a certain degree to reduce drought vulnerability. However, drought did not significantly affect the economic transformation, initiated mainly due to saturation in agricultural development. Thus, I argue that alongside concerted adaptation efforts state institutions should dedicate greater attention to the management of broader social challenges and crises in a manner that fosters greater resilience against future climate changes. Ideological shifts and consequent restructuring of development paths, as well as the interaction between population growth and limited natural resources, may constitute important entry points. These entry points are particularly pertinent to emerging economies in other dry areas, many of which face similar social and economic trends to those experienced in Israel over the last decades.

Abstract A 10-yr climatological study of Tropical Plumes (TPs) observed over the Middle East was undertaken. Several tools were used to identify and analyze these mid-tropospheric elongated cloudbands: satellite images, reanalysis and radiosonde data, backward trajectories, and cluster analysis. In order to conduct an in-depth examination of the synoptic conditions controlling this tropical–extratropical phenomenon, a dual methodology was adopted. In the first analysis, the identified 45 plumes were classified to precipitative and non-precipitative. In the second analysis, backward trajectories of the plumes were clustered in order to detect their moisture origins and pathways. In addition to the well documented south-western plumes originating in West Africa, a more southern pathway was identified, in which moisture was transported from Central to East African sources. The ‘south-western’ plumes are associated with a southwards penetration of mid-latitude troughs, associated with an intensified thermal wind and a longer jet streak, extending as far as Northwestern Africa. In the ‘southern’ category the Sub-Tropical Jet is associated with an anticyclonic flow over the south of the Arabian Peninsula, serving as an essential vehicle advecting moisture from tropical origins. This moisture pathway is considerably shorter than the south-western one. Several conditions favor precipitation induced by TPs over the domain: a northward migration of the jet streak resulting in a weakening of the wind speed over the target area, a deeper trough at the 500 hPa level and a shorter moisture corridor.

While dam building has declined in most developed economies, it has seen an increase in emerging economies, particularly in East and South Asia. Even there, however, such dams are facing mounting opposition. This raises the prospect that dam building is nearing a global tipping point. In this study, we examine the case of the Tipaimukh Dam in Manipur, one of the states in India's peripheral northeast. We ask how such a major project was stopped despite support from powerful nationaland regional-level actors. To analyse this case, we build on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and the analytical concepts of growth coalitions and discourse coalitions. The joint application of these concepts enables us to link global advocacy coalitions with local proand anti-growth coalitions through the storylines they advance, thereby formulating multiscalar discourse coalitions. This allows us to follow the struggles between pro-dam and anti-dam coalitions, as well as trace the shifts in the comp...

The nexus between climate change and violent conflict is at the center of intensifying political and academic debate. Yet research on the extent and strength of this relationship remains inconclusive and much of the literature is largely empirical, lacking a sufficient theoretical underpinning. This study advances a conceptual framework linking climate change induced droughts and conflict, in potentially iterative relations. The framework is applied to two case studies displaying different responses to an extreme drought tentatively linked with climate change. To this end, we analyze the effect of the 2007–10 drought that afflicted the Middle East on the Euphrates and the lower Jordan River basins. While in the Euphrates basin the 2007–10 drought was followed by the outbreak of large-scale violent conflict in Syria which spilled over to Iraq, conflicts did not occur in the more water stressed Jordan River basin despite the tensions between the riparian countries. Using multiple sources the main factors that affected the responses to the drought in the two basins are identified and analyzed comparatively. The results show that the behavior of upper riparian countries and states' institutional and economic structures constitute critical factors affecting the likelihood of conflict. Most importantly, conflicts evolved only when fundamental factors, particularly adaptive capacity, have been compromised. Thus, from a theoretical perspective, we find that climate change is an intermediate variable, and should be analyzed as such, rather than as a major driver of conflict.

As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems' prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, there is limited understanding of the factors that underlie such changes. This study sheds light on these factors by examining the case of Israel-a largely arid to semi-arid country with highly scarce natural water resources and a historical rural-agricultural ideology. Adopting an historically-informed systems perspective, I analyze two transformations that diminished Israel's vulnerability to recurring droughts: the 1960s' economic transformation from agriculture to industry, and the shift to seawater desalination in the mid-2000s. These changes are examined using causal-loop diagrams based on multiple data sources, including archival records, statistical reports and a systematic review of grey and academic literature. The findings show that both transformations, instigated by state institutions during exceptionally severe droughts, were driven by shifts away from development paradigms embedded in the nation-building ideology, as well as by social stresses that exceeded the natural limits of the agricultural system and water supply system. Repeated drought shocks activated and later reactivated the shift to desalination, intended to a certain degree to reduce drought vulnerability. However, drought did not significantly affect the economic transformation, initiated mainly due to saturation in agricultural development. Thus, I argue that alongside concerted adaptation efforts state institutions should dedicate greater attention to the 2 management of broader social challenges and crises in a manner that fosters greater resilience against future climate changes. Ideological shifts and consequent restructuring of development paths, as well as the interaction between population growth and limited natural resources, may constitute important entry points. These entry points are particularly pertinent to emerging economies in other dry areas, many of which face similar social and economic trends to those experienced in Israel over the last decades.

Environmental peacebuilding has attracted great scholarly and political interest in recent years, but little knowledge is available on the interface of education and environmental peacebuilding. This void is unfortunate given the importance of education for peacebuilding and the wider “educational turn” in human geography. This study represents the first systematic analysis of the role of education activities in the context
of environmental peacebuilding. We establish a theoretical framework and analyze the education activities of three environmental peacebuilding projects in Israel and Palestine based on forty-five interviews conducted between 2010 and 2018. The findings reveal that the projects mostly aim to create trust and understanding but that activities related to an improvement of the environmental situation and to the cultivation of interdependence take place as well. Despite a number of significant problems — primarily the tense political situation and local resistance — the education activities successfully catalyze processes of building everyday or local peace, at least among the participants. An impact of such projects on formal conflict resolution is
possible but remains uncertain. The findings also show that environmental cooperation can spill over and that contested processes of depoliticization and neoliberalization can, at least to a certain degree, be utilized to positively affect environmental cooperation, education, and peacebuilding.

Marginalized resource-dependent groups (MRDGs) are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and weather extremes. However, research on MRDGs tends to analyze their vulnerability in a specific point in time, thereby neglecting the examination of changes that evolve over time spans that are similar to those on which climatic changes occur. This study adopts a long-term perspective, examining changes in the vulnerability of the marginalized and traditionally agro-pastoralist Bedouin residing in the semi-arid and drought-prone northern Negev region. Utilizing multiple data sources, the study compares the vulnerability of the Bedouin during two severe droughts separated by a 40-year period—the 1957–63 drought and the 1998–2000 drought. The changes in the impacts of the droughts on the Bedouin are identified and analyzed, as well as the main factors explaining these changes. The results indicate that the vulnerability of the Bedouin to droughts has declined considerably, largely due to integration in Israel's market economy and improved access to water infrastructure. Large-scale economic transformations and changes in settlement and water supply patterns explain much of the reduction in vulnerability. However, the Bedouin have remained marginalized and are vulnerable to fluctuations in market conditions. Thus, while we find that the vulnerability of even the most vulnerable groups can decline over time, we also observe that their vulnerability may change its form from Bclimate vulnerability^ to more general social vulnerability.

The nexus between climate change and violent conflict is at the center of intensifying political and academic debate. Yet research on the extent and strength of this relationship remains inconclusive and much of the literature is largely empirical, lacking a sufficient theoretical underpinning. This study advances a conceptual framework linking climate change induced droughts and conflict, in potentially iterative relations. The framework is applied to two case studies displaying different responses to an extreme drought tentatively linked with climate change. To this end, we analyze the effect of the 2007–10 drought that afflicted the Middle East on the Euphrates and the lower Jordan River basins. While in the Euphrates basin the 2007–10 drought was followed by the outbreak of large-scale violent conflict in Syria which spilled over to Iraq, conflicts did not occur in the more water stressed Jordan River basin despite the tensions between the riparian countries. Using multiple sources the main factors that affected the responses to the drought in the two basins are identified and analyzed comparatively. The results show that the behavior of upper riparian countries and states' institutional and economic structures constitute critical factors affecting the likelihood of conflict. Most importantly, conflicts evolved only when fundamental factors, particularly adaptive capacity, have been compromised. Thus, from a theoretical perspective, we find that climate change is an intermediate variable, and should be analyzed as such, rather than as a major driver of conflict.

Climate change is increasingly considered a security problem by academics and politicians alike. Although research is challenging such neo-Malthusian views, it focuses on conflict, or lack thereof, paying limited attention, if any, to cooperation. This study examines the effect of a severe drought on a spectrum of both conflict and cooperation in a highly incendiary setting, between Muslim Bedouin herders and Jewish agricultural settlements in Israel’s semi-arid northern Negev region. This region, lying between the Mediterranean zone and the Negev Desert, has historically been a battle ground between farmers and pastoralists.
Using archival data, both conflictive and cooperative interactions between the two groups during the 1957–63 drought, the worst in the 20th century, were examined. The results indicate that although the entire range of responses occurred, violence was limited and occurred only when some of the Bedouins migrated to the more northern Mediterranean zone. In the semi-arid northern Negev the Bedouins and two settlements engaged in substantive cooperation and assistance. Grazing on damaged crops in return for payment was also practiced during the drought.
A number of factors that affected both conflict and cooperation are identified. The severity of conflicts increased when farmers and herders lacked previous familiarity, while the need to reduce the drought’s impacts and settlements’ left-wing political affiliation formed main incentives for cooperation. Measures taken by state institutions to directly reduce frictions and to provide relief assistance were central to the overall limited level of conflict, but also reinforced the power disparities between the groups.