Carl Symborski

From failures of intelligence analysis to misguided beliefs about vaccinations, biased judgment and decision making contributes
to problems in policy, business, medicine, law, education, and private life. Early attempts to reduce decision biases with
training met with little success, leading scientists and policy makers to focus on debiasing by using incentives and changes
in the presentation and elicitation of decisions. We report the results of two longitudinal experiments that found medium
to large effects of one-shot debiasing training interventions. Participants received a single training intervention, played a
computer game or watched an instructional video, which addressed biases critical to intelligence analysis (in Experiment 1:
bias blind spot, confirmation bias, and fundamental attribution error; in Experiment 2: anchoring, representativeness, and
social projection). Both kinds of interventions produced medium to large debiasing effects immediately (games ≥ −31.94% and videos ≥ −18.60%) that persisted at least 2 months later (games ≥ −23.57% and videos ≥ −19.20%). Games that provided personalized feedback and practice produced larger effects than did videos. Debiasing effects were domain general: bias reduction occurred across problems in different contexts, and problem formats that were taught and not taught in the
interventions. The results suggest that a single training intervention can improve decision making. We suggest its use alongside improved incentives, information presentation, and nudges to reduce costly errors associated with biased judgments and decisions.

In the current study, a serious game was developed to address a training challenge: teaching players to recognize and mitigate their cognitive biases. Cognitive biases, which are human tendencies to commit systematic errors in thinking that lead to irrational judgments, are deeply ingrained and difficult to alter. This paper describes the theory-based approach we employed to create a game for the mitigation of cognitive biases – a challenging and abstract training topic. A cognitive bias framework that relates the target cognitive biases, their causes, and effective bias mitigation techniques was developed and incorporated into the game design. The resultant serious game, titled Missing: The Final Secret (hereinafter: Missing), pairs the most promising mitigation strategies with the primary causes of the targeted cognitive biases and incorporates them into game-play. Further, we present preliminary results from a game efficacy evaluation suggesting that Missing is an effective tool for training cognitive bias recognition and mitigation.

The current study was designed to address the following research question: Can a computer game provide an effective mechanism for training adults to identify and mitigate their cognitive biases? Human decision making relies on a variety of simple heuristic decision rules that can be quick and effective mental shortcuts when making judgments. However, these heuristics can also lead to irrational thinking and problem-solving in ways that produce errors or illogicality, known as cognitive biases. Though knowledge of cognitive biases and bias mitigation strategies can help to reduce the potential impact of cognitive biases on human reasoning, such deeply ingrained cognitive strategies are difficult to alter. The current study was designed to leverage the virtual learning environment of a serious game to take on this training challenge. To that end, a training game – Missing: The Pursuit of Terry Hughes (Missing) – was developed. Missing was created for an audience of educated adults, and the described instructional design is based on current research on effective andragogical learning theory. The Missing game design immerses the user into bias-invoking situations which provide direct experience with cognitive bias identification and mitigation strategies. In this paper, details of the game instructional design are presented, including a cognitive framework based on dual-process systems of reasoning which relates multiple biases, their causes, and mitigation techniques. An external test campaign was conducted to determine whether the game had a positive transfer of in-game experiential learning about biases to real world skills and behavior change. Results are presented that suggest this novel serious game both engages and trains players, resulting in measurable reductions in cognitive biases.

This Report presents results of a virtual world (VW) survey conducted in the summer of 2012, and subsequent analysis through summer of 2014. The aim of this study was to enhance our understanding of demographics, attitudes, activities and play preferences across a variety of non-game, social virtual worlds, also referred to as metaverses. The need for this study arose out of our observation that, while multiple surveys have been conducted on these aspects of a variety of different massively multiplayer games (MMOGs), only a few single-world, topical surveys have been conducted of equivalent non-game worlds, such as Second Life and There.com. Our past qualitative and mixed-methods research in multiple virtual worlds indicated that there were significant differences in both demographics and play patterns between open-ended worlds and the more studied game-style worlds. The survey included over 800 denizens of 36 different virtual worlds – recruited via Facebook, virtual world forums and blogs, as well as inworld networks – and focused on four key areas:
Demographics: including age, gender, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, marital and family status, income and employment status, religion, region of residence, and disability.
Avatar Presentation: including form, dress, role, use of alts, and cross-gender play
Activities and Play Patterns: including amount and times of day spent, favorite activities, and social interactions including dating, sex, and the fluidity of relationships between virtual worlds and real life
Creativity and Commerce: including creative activity, real estate ownership, virtual item transactions, virtual currency transactions, and income from virtual world activities
The report also includes a comparative analysis of similar results from game-based surveys to better understand the similarities and differences between these forms of virtual worlds. We conclude with a summary of the findings, a description of a planned supplement dealing with responses to open-ended questions, and suggested topics for further research. This report covers primarily multiple-choice questions across these subject areas, and a summary of responses to open-ended questions. A subsequent supplement will be released with more detailed analysis of open responses.