Goran Grozdanic

This scientific monograph stems from a deep interest in the resilience of local communities to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, which pose one of the greatest challenges humanity faces. In our quest to explore the multifaceted factors influencing this crucial dimension of societal preparedness, we focused on Montenegro, a country located in the seismic active zone of the Mediterranean. Through an in-depth analysis of various aspects, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and provide guidance for the development of effective strategies and programs. Our research mission aims to identify key factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and analyze the prerequisites for the development and implementation of various strategies and programs that would enhance the situation in this area. In doing so, we rely on an interdisciplinary approach, integrating insights from various scientific disciplines to gain a deeper understanding of the complexity of this issue. In this context, we consider demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors influencing the resilience of local communities to earthquakes. We understand that resilience is not only the result of technical preparations but also of deeper social, economic, and psychological dynamics. Through a systematic analysis of these factors, we strive to provide a comprehensive picture of the state of preparedness of local communities and to identify key points of intervention to improve their resilience. Research approach is based on the analysis of available data as well as on field research, including interviews with the population and relevant experts. This enables us to gain a more detailed insight into the perception and attitudes of citizens regarding preparedness for earthquakes, as well as to identify specific challenges faced by local communities. Given the complexity of the problem and the importance of an interdisciplinary approach, we aim for our monograph to be a valuable resource for various stakeholders, including government institutions, non-governmental organizations, local communities, and the scientific community. We hope that the results of our research will serve as a basis for the development of concrete action plans and policies that will enhance the preparedness of local communities for earthquakes. This monograph is not only the result of our research effort but also the product of collaboration with a wider community of experts and practitioners who have contributed their knowledge and experience to our understanding of this complex issue. We express our gratitude to all who have supported and contributed to our research. Through the following pages, we will guide you through a deep analysis of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes, providing insight into the complexity of this problem and identifying opportunities for improving the preparedness of local communities. We hope that this monograph will be a valuable resource for all those involved in this important field and will contribute to strengthening the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and other natural disasters. A large number of social and natural factors influence the resilience of local communities to geohazards caused by earthquakes. Understanding these factors plays a crucial role in devising and implementing strategies to enhance resilience. The results of previous research on citizen resilience to geohazards caused by earthquakes have influenced the development of hypotheses, which are grounded in the concept of resilience. The general hypothesis involves testing the assertion that there is a relationship between demographic (gender, age, education, household size), socio-economic (employment, income level, marital status), and psychological characteristics (fear, past experience, risk perception) of citizens and their level of preparedness to respond to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. It is assumed that this relationship is at the pre-planning level, implying that citizens recognize the problem and accept that action must be taken. Based on the general hypothesis, three specific hypotheses have been defined: The first hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between demographic factors (gender, age, education, household size) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The second hypothesis pertains to testing the assertion that there is a correlation between socio-economic factors (employment status, income level, marital status) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The third hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception) of citizens and their readiness levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. In the methodological framework of our research, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to gather and analyze data. Surveys and interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data, respectively, while statistical analysis techniques were applied to test the formulated hypotheses. Additionally, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to provide a theoretical foundation for our research and to contextualize our findings within existing knowledge. Through this methodological approach, we aimed to ensure the rigor and validity of our research findings. We extend our gratitude to the reviewers who provided valuable feedback and insights during the development of this monograph. Their contributions have undoubtedly enriched the quality of our work and have helped us refine our analysis and interpretations.

Authorities and governmental bodies strongly emphasize the importance of residents preparing for natural disasters, particularly underscoring the significance of readiness for geophysical hazards like earthquakes. In this study, which represents comparative quantitative research, the levels and predictors of the impact on preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters in South-Eastern European countries such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia are examined. Using the snowball sampling technique (online questionnaire), a survey of 1245 respondents (Montenegro (n = 400), North Macedonia (n = 345), and Serbia (n = 500) was conducted from February 2023 to February 2024. The paper is based on the central hypothesis that the most significant predictor of earthquake preparedness in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia is age, followed by education and gender. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which five scores of the subscales (household preparedness, community preparedness, disaster preparation, earthquake risk awareness, and reinforced house) were associated with seventh demographic and socio-economic variables. In addition to the mentioned analysis, other statistical analyses such as t-test, one-way ANOVA analysis, and Pearson correlation were also utilized. The results indicate that age emerges as a predictor in various aspects of earthquake-induced disaster preparedness and awareness in most models, followed by education and gender. These findings confirm the significance of respondents’ age in determining levels of preparedness and earthquake awareness. Overall, in North Macedonia, respondents recorded the highest ratings (M = 3.52) for household preparedness for earthquakes, compared to Serbia (M = 3.26) and Montenegro (M = 2.98), where the lower ratings were recorded. Research findings, taking into account cultural characteristics, can serve as a basis for the development of targeted interventions, strategies, policies, and programs aimed at improving the level of societal preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters.

This scientific monograph stems from a deep interest in the resilience of local communities to natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, which pose one of the greatest challenges humanity faces. In our quest to explore the multifaceted factors influencing this crucial dimension of societal preparedness, we focused on Montenegro, a country located in the seismic active zone of the Mediterranean. Through an in-depth analysis of various aspects, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and provide guidance for the development of effective strategies and programs. Our research mission aims to identify key factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and analyze the prerequisites for the development and implementation of various strategies and programs that would enhance the situation in this area. In doing so, we rely on an interdisciplinary approach, integrating insights from various scientific disciplines to gain a deeper understanding of the complexity of this issue. In this context, we consider demographic, socioeconomic, and psychological factors influencing the resilience of local communities to earthquakes. We understand that resilience is not only the result of technical preparations but also of deeper social, economic, and psychological dynamics. Through a systematic analysis of these factors, we strive to provide a comprehensive picture of the state of preparedness of local communities and to identify key points of intervention to improve their resilience. Research approach is based on the analysis of available data as well as on field research, including interviews with the population and relevant experts. This enables us to gain a more detailed insight into the perception and attitudes of citizens regarding preparedness for earthquakes, as well as to identify specific challenges faced by local communities. Given the complexity of the problem and the importance of an interdisciplinary approach, we aim for our monograph to be a valuable resource for various stakeholders, including government institutions, non-governmental organizations, local communities, and the scientific community. We hope that the results of our research will serve as a basis for the development of concrete action plans and policies that will enhance the preparedness of local communities for earthquakes. This monograph is not only the result of our research effort but also the product of collaboration with a wider community of experts and practitioners who have contributed their knowledge and experience to our understanding of this complex issue. We express our gratitude to all who have supported and contributed to our research. Through the following pages, we will guide you through a deep analysis of the factors shaping the resilience of local communities to earthquakes, providing insight into the complexity of this problem and identifying opportunities for improving the preparedness of local communities. We hope that this monograph will be a valuable resource for all those involved in this important field and will contribute to strengthening the resilience of local communities to earthquakes and other natural disasters. A large number of social and natural factors influence the resilience of local communities to geohazards caused by earthquakes. Understanding these factors plays a crucial role in devising and implementing strategies to enhance resilience. The results of previous research on citizen resilience to geohazards caused by earthquakes have influenced the development of hypotheses, which are grounded in the concept of resilience. The general hypothesis involves testing the assertion that there is a relationship between demographic (gender, age, education, household size), socio-economic (employment, income level, marital status), and psychological characteristics (fear, past experience, risk perception) of citizens and their level of preparedness to respond to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. It is assumed that this relationship is at the pre-planning level, implying that citizens recognize the problem and accept that action must be taken. Based on the general hypothesis, three specific hypotheses have been defined: The first hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between demographic factors (gender, age, education, household size) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The second hypothesis pertains to testing the assertion that there is a correlation between socio-economic factors (employment status, income level, marital status) of citizens in the Republic of Montenegro and their resilience levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes. The third hypothesis concerns testing the assertion that there is a correlation between psychological characteristics (fear, previous experience, risk perception) of citizens and their readiness levels in responding to geohazards caused by earthquakes in the Republic of Montenegro. In the methodological framework of our research, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to gather and analyze data. Surveys and interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data, respectively, while statistical analysis techniques were applied to test the formulated hypotheses. Additionally, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to provide a theoretical foundation for our research and to contextualize our findings within existing knowledge. Through this methodological approach, we aimed to ensure the rigor and validity of our research findings. We extend our gratitude to the reviewers who provided valuable feedback and insights during the development of this monograph. Their contributions have undoubtedly enriched the quality of our work and have helped us refine our analysis and interpretations.