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Previous work summarized the application of global models to simulate climate. The horizontal resolution of these models—generally 1–3 degrees latitude and longitude—while adequate for resolving sub-continental North American climate... more
Previous work summarized the application of global models to simulate climate. The horizontal resolution of these models—generally 1–3 degrees latitude and longitude—while adequate for resolving sub-continental North American climate features, is insufficient for simulating the more detailed properties of regional climate, such as those represented in impacts models. Regionalized processes are also needed to resolve important processes at finer scales than those represented in global climate models. Such processes may include local conditions such as narrow jet cores, sea breeze type circulations, lake effects, and the atmospheric response to complex terrain. To achieve higher resolution, a variety of so-called downscaling methods have been developed. This chapter reviews these methods and the results of applying them to the regional climate change problem.
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ABSTRACT
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Research Interests: Computer Science and Crop
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Research Interests: Geography and Downscaling
The interactions between climate and health are rife with complexity and present many conceptual and methodological challenges. Possible effects of climate change on health are considered some of the most sensitive impacts of climate... more
The interactions between climate and health are rife with complexity and present many conceptual and methodological challenges. Possible effects of climate change on health are considered some of the most sensitive impacts of climate change and are a high priority for policy-makers and the public. As a first step toward improving tlit: quality of research, we developed a Climate and Health Workshop (Institute), geared toward teaching students various aspects of how to conduct integrated climate and health research. At the workshop scientists presented selected case studies of climate and health (e.g., heat mortality, vector-borne diseases), thus demonstrating a subset of key analytical tools and databases most useful to researchers in this field. Key research gaps in this research area were discussed. In this six-day Institute (21-28 July 2004, Boulder, Colorado), health scientists and students benefited from lectures and hands-on tools taught by top NCAR scientists. The attendees learned about health databases and epidemiologic methods from leading health scientists from CDC, Johns Hopkins, and other institutions from around the globe.
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To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM)... more
To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.
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Analysis of daily variability of temperature in climate model experiments is important as a model diagnostic and for determination of how such variability may change under perturbed climate conditions. The latter could be important from a... more
Analysis of daily variability of temperature in climate model experiments is important as a model diagnostic and for determination of how such variability may change under perturbed climate conditions. The latter could be important from a climate impacts perspective. We analyze daily mean, diurnal range and variability of surface air temperature in two continuous 3 1/2 year long climate simulations
Research Interests: Environmental Science, Oceanography, Climate Change, Climatology, Carbon Dioxide, and 15 moreClimate Dynamics, Seasonality, Environmental Sciences, Atmospheric sciences, Environmental Effect, Climate Models, General Circulation Models, Climate Model, Climate impacts, Ambient Temperature, Shortwave Radiation, surface air temperature, present day, Diurnal Temperature Range, and Climatic condition
We apply a convergence research approach to the urgent need for proactive management of long‐term risk associated with wildfire in the United States. In this work we define convergence research in accordance with the US National Science... more
We apply a convergence research approach to the urgent need for proactive management of long‐term risk associated with wildfire in the United States. In this work we define convergence research in accordance with the US National Science Foundation—as a means of addressing a specific and compelling societal problem for which solutions require deep integration across disciplines and engagement of stakeholders. Our research team brings expertise in climate science, fire science, landscape ecology, and decision science to address the risk from simultaneous and impactful fires that compete for management resources, and leverages climate projections for decision support. In order to make progress toward convergence our team bridges spatial and temporal scale divides arising from differences in disciplinary and practice‐based norms. We partner with stakeholders representing US governmental, tribal, and local decision contexts to coproduce a robust information base for support of decision m...
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Presentation provided by the secretariat of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III, summarizing the main findings of the Working Group's Fifth Assessment Report.
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Research Interests: Business, Earth Sciences, Computer Science, Climate Change, Decision Making, and 14 moreAdaptation, Risk, International Cooperation, Climate, Vulnerability, Environmental Resource Management, Feedback, Impact, Climate Models, Climate Finance, Data Processing, User Requirements, Predictions, and computerized simulation
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: This research presents and demonstrates a framework for assessing climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call decision-scaling, reveals the core sensitivity of DoD installations to... more
: This research presents and demonstrates a framework for assessing climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call decision-scaling, reveals the core sensitivity of DoD installations to climate change. It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems, including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and results remain unclouded by the many choices and trade-offs required in the processing of projections from general circulation models (GCMs, also known as global climate models) and their associated uncertainties. The engine of analysis is the climate stress test which is an algorithm designed to stress the target system using systematic and exhaustive exploration of possible climate changes. Climate projections, including simulations from the NARCCAP are then used to inform the leve...
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Climate change challenges conservation planners in making decisions about habitat site selection and augmentation. This pilot study explores the use of Robust Decision Making (RDM), a decision analytic approach employed in water and... more
Climate change challenges conservation planners in making decisions about habitat site selection and augmentation. This pilot study explores the use of Robust Decision Making (RDM), a decision analytic approach employed in water and coastal management, for conservation decision-making. It employs the RDM approach to design a theoretical decision experiment that compares the differences in performance between stylized static and adaptive land purchase strategies that notionally aim to protect additional habitat for Desmognathus organi, a salamander in the south central Appalachians, under uncertain future climate conditions. The static strategy purchases a specific parcel of land in the present, whereas the adaptive strategy leases two parcels in the present and purchases the most suitable later. Purchase decisions are based on projected future habitat suitability for D. organi, estimated using species response models trained with an ensemble of climate model projections. Using RDM m...
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: This research presents and demonstrates a framework for assessing climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment.The approach, which we call decision-scaling, reveals the core sensitivity of DoD installations to... more
: This research presents and demonstrates a framework for assessing climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment.The approach, which we call decision-scaling, reveals the core sensitivity of DoD installations to climate change. It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems, including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and results remain unclouded by the many choices and trade-offs required in the processing of projections from general circulation models (GCMs, also known as global climate models) and their associated uncertainties. The engine of analysis is the climate stress test which is an algorithm designed to stress the target system using systematic and exhaustive exploration of possible climate changes. Climate projections, including simulations from the NARCCAP are then used to inform the level...