- Athens, Greece
- Mathematical modelling for economic, energy and environmental strategy and marketsedit
ABSTRACT The paper presents a dynamic computable general equilibrium of the Greek economy and its use in the analysis of public deficit reduction policies under different market clearing regimes and financial system closures. The model is... more
ABSTRACT The paper presents a dynamic computable general equilibrium of the Greek economy and its use in the analysis of public deficit reduction policies under different market clearing regimes and financial system closures. The model is a large-scale econometrically estimated system that incorporates an IS- LM closure, allows for different market regimes and involves multiple sectors. Six public policy measures are analysed under three cases of structural adjustments, concerning the labour market and the exchange rate regimes. The measures are all found to contribute to the reduction of the deficits in both the public budget and the current account, while inducing positive growth effects and triggering a deflationary process. Rigid market clearing regimes weaken the effects and sometimes have adverse effects. The measures are found to differ in effectiveness, as well as in wealth distribution by economic agent.
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Regional energy resource development has been growing rapidly in recent years. Either the large-scale energy resource extraction and convertion projects, or the small-scale but extended exploitation of renewable energy, generate multiple... more
Regional energy resource development has been growing rapidly in recent years. Either the large-scale energy resource extraction and convertion projects, or the small-scale but extended exploitation of renewable energy, generate multiple effects on the economic characteristics of affected regions. The objective of this paper is to describe a linked modeling system developed and elaborated for the analysis of regional energy and economy interactions. The work presented aims to demonstrate feasibility of the paradigm: that the design and construction of alternative scenarios on the basis of a system of linked energy - economy models enhances significantly the evaluation of alternative strategies. Furthermore, the paper presents a rigid and robust linkage between various regional economic and energy models and establishes the whole system in a user-friendly simulation environment.
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... resources 128.2 107.3 7655 6119 54.3 Investment 120.4 97.5 9388 38400 42.2 a Measured in (1983)dollars. 388 Exohange Bill 1 9 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 2 , , , 1 1.005 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.025 1.08 Cost J. Psarras et al. Multicriteria ...
Research Interests: Management, Computer Science, Energy, Linear Programming, Multidisciplinary, and 11 moreEnergy Management, Planning, Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Decision, Mathematical Optimization, Large Scale, Decision Maker, Multiple Criteria, Structuring, Disaster Recovery Using Operations Research and Management Science, and Multicriteria Analysis
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... 590 J PsARRAS et al The minimum and the maximum values m each column indicate the range of possible variations of the value of the corresponding objective. ... 2. Total discounted cost in foreign exchange, called briefly the exchange... more
... 590 J PsARRAS et al The minimum and the maximum values m each column indicate the range of possible variations of the value of the corresponding objective. ... 2. Total discounted cost in foreign exchange, called briefly the exchange bill. ...
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Energy is a key issue that is present in all the sectors of modern economies. The availability of cheap, abundant and safe energy sources is indeed a requisite for sustained economic development in emerging economies. The ways in which it... more
Energy is a key issue that is present in all the sectors of modern economies. The availability of cheap, abundant and safe energy sources is indeed a requisite for sustained economic development in emerging economies. The ways in which it is consumed and used to produce welfare is the matter of several disciplinary fields. Energy technologies are important because energy is crucial in the overall economic system, not only because of the scarcity of the resources (the world energy mix is based on non renewable energy carriers), but also because of the environmental concerns. Indeed, environmental degradation is due, to a large extent, to the effects of energy production, transformation and use.
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The paper presents policy analysis regarding the prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the energy system of the European Union (EU) up to 2030. The analysis follows a systemic approach, investigating a series of alternative... more
The paper presents policy analysis regarding the prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the energy system of the European Union (EU) up to 2030. The analysis follows a systemic approach, investigating a series of alternative scenarios using the large scale energy systems model PRIMES for all member states (MS) of the EU. Measures supporting the European environmental and
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In 2009 the EU decided to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 and to supply 20% of energy needs by 2020 from renewable energy sources. This paper uses an energy model coupled with a non-CO2 greenhouse... more
In 2009 the EU decided to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990 and to supply 20% of energy needs by 2020 from renewable energy sources. This paper uses an energy model coupled with a non-CO2 greenhouse gas model to assess the range of policy options that were debated to meet both targets. Policy options include trading of renewable targets, carbon trading in power plants and industry and the use of the Clean Development Mechanism to improve cost-efficiency. The models also examined fairness by analysing the distribution of emission reduction in the non-emission trading sector, the distribution of CO2 allowances in the emission trading sector and the reallocation of renewable targets across Member States. The overall costs of meeting both targets range from 0.4% to 0.6% of GDP in 2020 for the EU as a whole. The redistribution mechanisms employed significantly improve fairness compared to a cost-effective solution.
Research Interests: Economics, Energy Economics, Climate Change, Environmental policy, Environmental Studies, and 15 moreCarbon Dioxide, Energy Policy, Energy and Environment, Carbon Trading, Commerce, Environmental Sciences, Emissions Trading, Clean Development Mechanism, Climate policy, Cost Efficiency, Emission Trading, Cost Benefit Analysis, Energy Resource, Emission Control, and Energy Needs
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The purpose of this article is to present a summary of a consistent European Union (EU) energy and energy-related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quantitative analysis and on a process of... more
The purpose of this article is to present a summary of a consistent European Union (EU) energy and energy-related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quantitative analysis and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organizations. All the results presented for EU energy trends are based on the PRIMES partial equilibrium model for the European energy system, version 2. The PRIMES model provides simulation of the energy system and the decisions of the agents and the markets, covering in detail several sectors, uses, and technologies. The results of this analysis indicate that the EU will not meet the obligations for greenhouse gas emissions reductions it undertook at Kyoto unless it introduces policy initiatives for the abatement of energy-related emissions. Although the industrial, tertiary, household, and transportation sectors can all make significant contributions to CO2 emissions reductions,...
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Abstract This paper presents a set of scenarios quantified by the PRIMES energy systems model that have provided input to the Impact Assessment work accompanying the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package, brought forward by the... more
Abstract This paper presents a set of scenarios quantified by the PRIMES energy systems model that have provided input to the Impact Assessment work accompanying the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package, brought forward by the European Commission in November 2016. The mandatory targets proposed or reiterated in the policy package are for the year 2030, within a decarbonisation context; the horizon of the modelling exercise extends to 2050. The role of electricity is essential for the transition, with energy efficiency and renewable energy sources being central pillars. The ETS mechanism along with bottom-up policy measures deliver the significant GHG emissions reductions needed for the decarbonisation of the EU energy system. The model based analysis reveals a significant shift away from OPEX towards CAPEX, with moderate impact on energy prices in the medium term.
Abstract Transport sector restructuring to achieve deep GHG emission cuts has attracted much attention because transportation is important for the economy and inflexible in greenhouse gas emission reduction. The aim of this paper is to... more
Abstract Transport sector restructuring to achieve deep GHG emission cuts has attracted much attention because transportation is important for the economy and inflexible in greenhouse gas emission reduction. The aim of this paper is to simulate transition towards low carbon transportation in the European Union until 2050 and to assess the ensuing macroeconomic and sectorial impacts. Transport restructuring is dynamically simulated using a new transport-oriented version of the computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 which is linked with the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy and transport sectors model. The analysis draws from comparing a reference scenario projection for the EU member-states up to 2050 to alternative transport policy scenarios and sensitivities which involve deep cutting of CO2 emissions. The simulations show that transport restructuring affects the economy through multiple channels, including investment in infrastructure, the purchasing and manufacturing of new technology vehicles, the production of alternative fuels, such as biofuels and electricity. The analysis identifies positive impacts of industrial activity and other sectors stemming from these activities. However, the implied costs of freight and passenger transportation are of crucial importance for the net impact on GDP and income. Should the transport sector transformation imply high unit costs of transport services, crowding out effects in the economy can offset the benefits. This implies that the technology and productivity progress assumptions can be decisive for the sign of GDP impacts. A robust conclusion is that the transport sector decarbonisation, is likely to have only small negative impacts on the EU GDP compared to business as usual.
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In March 2015 the European Union (EU) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in view of the Paris Conference of Parties (COP21). The binding... more
In March 2015 the European Union (EU) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in view of the Paris Conference of Parties (COP21). The binding target of lowering domestic greenhouse gases emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, coupled with long-term decarbonisation goals, will have profound energy system, macroeconomic and policy implications. EU targets are qualitatively discussed and quantitatively assessed with the simulation of a Reference and an alternative decarbonisation scenario to 2050. Simulations are carried out with the technology-rich PRIMES energy-system model and the GEM-E3 Computable General Equilibrium model. Restructuring of the EU energy system induces changes in the energy mix and production with small effects on the EU GDP, 0.4% in 2030 and 1% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario. Energy efficiency improvements, increasing penetration of renewables, fuel switching towards natural gas, and technical progress in process related to emissions abatement are identified as essential options to the EU INDC implementation. The electrification of final energy demand, particularly transport electrification, complemented with decarbonised power supply is found to play a critical role in the successful transition towards a low-carbon economy by 2050.
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Auteur d’une étude sur la place de l’énergie nucléaire en France et en Europe, Pantelis Capros, professeur à l’université d’Athènes et auteur du modèle PRIMES utilisé par les scénarios de la Commission européenne, observe que la... more
Auteur d’une étude sur la place de l’énergie nucléaire en France et en Europe, Pantelis Capros, professeur à l’université d’Athènes et auteur du modèle PRIMES utilisé par les scénarios de la Commission européenne, observe que la décarbonation totale du réseau électrique de l’UE nécessitera une croissance significative de la demande en électricité. La raison ? Le développement de l’électrification dans le secteur du transport et l’introduction potentielle des combustibles de synthèse comme moyen de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre restantes. Une telle croissance significative de la demande offre une nouvelle possibilité pour l’énergie nucléaire de repartir de l’avant vers le milieu du siècle. Interview.
The EU decarbonization strategy foresees deep cuts in CO2 in the transport sector. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing of new technology vehicles and production of alternative fuels induce macroeconomic changes in activity and... more
The EU decarbonization strategy foresees deep cuts in CO2 in the transport sector. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing of new technology vehicles and production of alternative fuels induce macroeconomic changes in activity and employment for both national and regional economies. The objective of the paper is to present a newly built macroeconomic-regional model (GEM-E3-R general equilibrium model for economy, energy and environment for regions) for assessing impacts of transport sector restructuring on regional economies of the entire EU, segmented following NUTS-3 (nomenclature of territorial units of statistics). The model combines general economic equilibrium theory with location choice and New Economic Geography and implements a dynamic, fully endogenous agglomeration-dispersion mechanism for people and industries coupled with a gravity model for bilateral interregional flows. A novelty of the model is a two-layers structure: (i) the country-wide layer formulated as a gl...
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The European Commission (EC) has set ambitious CO2 emission reduction objectives for the transport sector by 2050. In this context, most decarbonisation scenarios for transport foresee large market penetration of electric vehicles in 2030... more
The European Commission (EC) has set ambitious CO2 emission reduction objectives for the transport sector by 2050. In this context, most decarbonisation scenarios for transport foresee large market penetration of electric vehicles in 2030 and 2050. The emergence of electrified car mobility is, however, uncertain due to various barriers such as battery costs, range anxiety and dependence on battery recharging networks. Those barriers need to be addressed in the 2020–2030 decade, as this is key to achieving electrification at a large scale in the longer term. The paper explores the uncertainties prevailing in the first decade and the mix of policies to overcome the barriers by quantifying a series of sensitivity analysis scenarios of the evolution of the car markets in the EU Member States and the impacts of each barrier individually. The model used is PRIMES-TREMOVE, which has been developed by E3MLab and constitutes a detailed energy-economic model for the transport sector. Based on...
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... Studies Joint Research Centre World Trade Center Building Isla de la Cartuja s/n 41092 Sevilla, Spain Dr. Leo Schrattenholzer ECS Project International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Schlossplatz 1 2361 Laxenburg,... more
... Studies Joint Research Centre World Trade Center Building Isla de la Cartuja s/n 41092 Sevilla, Spain Dr. Leo Schrattenholzer ECS Project International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Schlossplatz 1 2361 Laxenburg, Austria E. Lakis Vouyoukas (Editorial Work ...
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This paper assesses the costs and benefits for the European Union (EU) as a first mover in climate change mitigation. Scenarios of EU and global climate action to 2050 are quantified using the GEME3-RD model, a global multi-sectoral... more
This paper assesses the costs and benefits for the European Union (EU) as a first mover in climate change mitigation. Scenarios of EU and global climate action to 2050 are quantified using the GEME3-RD model, a global multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technology progress and detailed representation of the clean energy technologies. The model includes two-factor learning curves (stock and research and development funding) for clean energy technologies, such as electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage, and renewable and efficient appliances. Funding of research and development is endogenously derived as a production factor enabling productivity improvement. The scenarios compare stylised climate strategies, which are asymmetric by world region and have different emission reduction profiles over time. Assuming that strong climate mitigation action will be undertaken only after 2030, the scenarios compare two main strategies for the EU: pursuing strong emission reduction unilaterally until 2030 versus deferring action for the period after 2030. Asymmetric climate action by region enables asymmetric innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies. The macroeconomic assessment of the climate action strategies does not only depend on costs of clean technologies but also on induced technology progress implying asymmetric effects on manufacturing and trade by region, taking into account spillovers. The model-based projections show clear advantages for the EU as a first mover in climate change mitigation compared with a delaying of climate action until 2030. Delayed climate action until 2030 implies higher gross domestic product losses for the EU compared with unilateral action until 2030. The model finds benefits of early action by the EU driven by activity and progress related to clean energy technologies as the EU can achieve competitive advantages over other world regions pursuing climate action later
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The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of differentials in energy prices between the EU and the non-EU countries in the horizon to 2050 are assessed with the use of GEM-E3, a Computable General Equilibrium model. Alternative scenario... more
The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of differentials in energy prices between the EU and the non-EU countries in the horizon to 2050 are assessed with the use of GEM-E3, a Computable General Equilibrium model. Alternative scenario variants are quantified: In the first case EU policies and market structures regarding taxation, penetration of RES in power generation and higher market power of EU energy producers lead to higher EU energy prices compared to those recorded in the non-EU countries. In the second variant developments in non-EU countries lead to lower energy prices as compared to those in the EU. Simulation results show that higher EU energy prices lower EU GDP compared to the baseline case. The impact ranges in magnitude between 0.02-0.41%, cumulatively over 2015-2050, depending on the drivers of price differentials and on the use of the additional tax revenues generated. Taxation and power generation mix policies are found to have the largest impact on economic activity. The results indicate the challenges of electricity and gas price developments that EU policy making needs to address in the following years so as to ensure long-term competitiveness and growth.
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The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of differentials in energy prices between the EU and the non-EU countries in the horizon to 2050 are assessed with the use of GEM-E3, a Computable General Equilibrium model. Alternative scenario... more
The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of differentials in energy prices between the EU and the non-EU countries in the horizon to 2050 are assessed with the use of GEM-E3, a Computable General Equilibrium model. Alternative scenario variants are quantified: In the first case EU policies and market structures regarding taxation, penetration of RES in power generation and higher market power of EU energy producers lead to higher EU energy prices compared to those recorded in the non-EU countries. In the second variant developments in non-EU countries lead to lower energy prices as compared to those in the EU. Simulation results show that higher EU energy prices lower EU GDP compared to the baseline case. The impact ranges in magnitude between 0.02-0.41%, cumulatively over 2015-2050, depending on the drivers of price differentials and on the use of the additional tax revenues generated. Taxation and power generation mix policies are found to have the largest impact on economic activit...
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ABSTRACT The EEC trade liberalization, which will result in a reduction of import tariffs and export subsidies, as well as in the harmonization of indirect tax system in member states, is among the major issues involved in the process of... more
ABSTRACT The EEC trade liberalization, which will result in a reduction of import tariffs and export subsidies, as well as in the harmonization of indirect tax system in member states, is among the major issues involved in the process of the completion of the internal market. Macroeconomic empirical evaluations of impacts were first studied and reported in the so-called ‘Cecchini report’ (Commission of the EEC, 1988). The impact analysis was limited to the large and/or developed countries of the European Community. Independent studies covered two of the small and less developed peripheral economies of EEC, namely Greece and Ireland (Karadeloglou, 1989; Bradley et al, 1989). The macroeconomic analysis of the impacts has been carried out exclusively by means of approaches that follow the neo-Keynesian modelling paradigm, since the model used is the European wide macroeconomic model HERMES.
... J. Psarras, P. Capros, J.-E. Samouilidis ... Total discounted cost in foreign exchange, called briefly the exchange bill: it includes all charges in foreign exchange calculated as being propor-tional to the energy flow variables and... more
... J. Psarras, P. Capros, J.-E. Samouilidis ... Total discounted cost in foreign exchange, called briefly the exchange bill: it includes all charges in foreign exchange calculated as being propor-tional to the energy flow variables and to the capacity expansion variables of the model; it is ...
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... The rising share of fossil fuels leads to an increase in the carbon intensity of the EU energy system. ... the modest increase in energy demand, this will lead to an increase in CO2 and other energy related emissions. ... transport... more
... The rising share of fossil fuels leads to an increase in the carbon intensity of the EU energy system. ... the modest increase in energy demand, this will lead to an increase in CO2 and other energy related emissions. ... transport 800 984 1020 963 1.4 0.4 -0.6 0.5 26.4 30.3 30.4 26.8 ...