Conversaciones: Encuentros por la pospandemia, 2020
Si la pandemia por COVID-19 que estamos atravesando es atroz, las consecuencias de una falta de a... more Si la pandemia por COVID-19 que estamos atravesando es atroz, las consecuencias de una falta de acción urgente frente al cambio climático son aún peores. La evidencia científica del nivel sin precedentes de la influencia humana en el clima es contundente: incremento sostenido de la temperatura media del planeta, ascenso del nivel del mar, retracción de glaciares y aumento en la ocurrencia de fenómenos extremos. Los impactos y riesgos que impone el cambio climático son evidentes en ámbitos como la salud de la población, recursos hídricos y biodiversidad, y en distintos sectores como producción de alimentos, generación de energía, infraestructura y transporte. Nuestra sobrevivencia depende de un desarrollo sostenible que tenga como eje central la protección del ambiente que hoy se encuentra amenazado tomando ventaja de las lecciones de la crisis actual para guiar la respuesta a la crisis climática.Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin
During recent years, numerous studies have examined the Buenos Aires urban climate, but the relat... more During recent years, numerous studies have examined the Buenos Aires urban climate, but the relationship between large-scale weather conditions and the Buenos Aires urban heat island (UHI) intensity has not been studied. The goal of this paper is to apply an objective synoptic climatological method to identify homogeneous air masses or weather types affecting Buenos Aires during winter, and to relate the results to the UHI intensity. A K-means clustering method was used to define six different air masses considering the 03:00, 09:00, 15:00 and 21:00 LT surface observations of dry bulb temperature, dew point, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure and wind direction and velocity at Ezeiza, the most rural meteorological station of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area (Fig. 1). Results show that the mean UHI intensity is at its maximum (2.8°C) a few hours before sunrise when conditions are dominated by cold air masses associated with cold-core anticyclones, weak winds and low cloud cover. Inverse heat islands are found during the afternoon for all air masses indicating that surface processes are not dominant at that time. The relatively infrequent and warmest air mass is the only one that presents a mean negative urban-rural temperature difference (-0.1°C) during the afternoon with the smallest diurnal cycle of the UHI intensity probably due to the prevailing high humidity and cloudy sky conditions. The paper provides an insight into the Buenos Aires urban-rural temperature difference under a variety of winter weather types and results could be useful to improve local daily temperature forecasts for the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires on the basis of the routine forecasts of weather types.
The annual pattern of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the western border of the South Atlantic hi... more The annual pattern of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the western border of the South Atlantic high between 25°S and 45°S has shifted southward since 1950. This trend was found, both in the NCEP reanalysis and in the South American coastal synoptic data. This annual shift was related to a change in the annual SLP cycle. To describe this annual cycle in a synthetic form, principal component (PC) analysis in T mode was applied to the correlation matrix of seasonal SLP means. The domain of this analysis was between 25°S - 45°S and 65°W - 45°W including southeastern South America. In this region, mean SLP is characterized by the meridional gradient corresponding to the west flow in the south, the southwester border of the South Atlantic high in the east and the Chaco low in the northwest. In winter, the field corresponding to the west flow spans northward of its mean annual position, while in summer the South Atlantic high intensifies and moves southward. The first two PC patterns repre...
Los esteros del Iberá son el segundo humedal más grande del mundo y en él habitan cientos de espe... more Los esteros del Iberá son el segundo humedal más grande del mundo y en él habitan cientos de especies vegetales y animales. La disponibilidad hídrica de la región es consecuencia del balance entre precipitación, evapotranspiración y escurrimiento siendo esta área altamente sensible a modificaciones en dicho balance. En este trabajo se presenta la calibración del modelo hidrológico distribuido VIC a la región de los esteros del Iberá en base a observaciones de temperatura, precipitación y viento en superficie. Asimismo se analiza la habilidad del modelo climático regional RCA3-E para simular el clima presente de la región y la capacidad del modelo VIC para representar el ciclo hidrológico del humedal cuando es forzado con los resultados de las simulaciones de RCA3-E. Se encontró que existen errores en el modelo climático que deterioran notablemente las simulaciones hidrológicas y que estas últimas pueden ser mejoradas si se aplica previamente al modelo regional un esquema de correcci...
Global climate models (GCMs) constitute the most reliable tool to simulate the processes that wil... more Global climate models (GCMs) constitute the most reliable tool to simulate the processes that will determine climate change at both global and regional scales. Nevertheless, GCMs predictions are subject to considerable uncertainties. In this sense, the confidence to use GCMs should be based on an exhaustive evaluation of their performance, using observation datasets and model inter-comparison activities. At the present time, a set of GCMs simulations which would be included in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is recently available. It is required to evaluate, at both regional and global scales, the ability of these simulations to represent the present climate. There are few studies that have analyzed the ability of theses simulations to characterize the 20th century climate particularly in South American region. The aim of the present study is to compare the ability of two sets of GCMs derived from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 inter-comparison projects to rep...
Climate change is nowadays considered as one of the greatest problems humanity is facing due to t... more Climate change is nowadays considered as one of the greatest problems humanity is facing due to the magnitude of its impact on economy, society and ecology. Southern South America, and in particular La Plata Basin, are areas where climate change is detected with major intensity. The principal objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of GCMs available from the WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Dataset Archive to represent the present climate (1960-1999) of southeastern South America with emphasis on precipitation and relevant atmospheric processes such as water vapor transport. Seasonal precipitation fields derived from GCMs were compared with the University of Delaware database available in a 0.5º x 0.5º grid. The evaluation of present climate model simulations was done using Climate of the 20th Century (20C3M) experiments. GCMs skill to represent the observed precipitation and water vapor transport fields was assessed from the linear spatial correlation coefficients between seasonal...
ABSTRACT In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average,... more ABSTRACT In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extension of crop lands into semiarid regions, but this increase also came with more frequent heavy rainfalls and consequent flooding of rural and urban areas. Since the early 1970s, the main rivers of the Plata Basin have increased their mean flows, but this was attributable not only to increased precipitation, but also to land use changes. In contrast, over the Andes Mountains, reduced rainfall and increased temperature has led to glaciers receding and reduced river flows. Climate projections for the first half of this century maintain observed trends and raise additional concerns that in most cases can be dealt with timely adaptation policies. However, by the end of this century, under an extreme emissions scenario, the projected warming reaches 3.5°C in the north of the country with respect to present-day conditions. There is insufficient knowledge to assume that this warming would not create severe damages to the people and the economy of Argentina. Because of the damages and casualties that heat waves and extreme precipitation events are already producing, the first and most urgent adaptation required is to reinforce early warning systems and contingency planning to cope with climatic extremes and their consequences on health.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.
ABSTRACT The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtro... more ABSTRACT The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtropical South America. It forces the development of a lee-side trough that covers most of western Argentina and a low-level jet that maximizes over Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina and is tightly linked to precipitation variability over much of central and southeastern South America. Its steep slopes and the large zonal gradients in topography between the Equator and 40°S are misrepresented in climate simulations using Global Climate Models (GCM) with resolutions coarser than about 100 km, since they naturally have a poor representation of the Andes and related circulation features. This paper analyses the impact of varying artificially the altitude of the Andes Cordillera in a GCM as well as increasing the horizontal resolution to study how these variations determine moisture fluxes and precipitation over selected regions of South America. Results show that the height of the Andes is crucial in shaping moisture fluxes pathways onto subtropical South America all year long. In particular, the low-level jet is only simulated when the Andes heights are doubled. At the same time, the relationship between the Andes shape and the location of the Bolivian High in summer is also discussed. In terms of precipitation, the lowest bias in the simulations is achieved when the horizontal resolution is increased, while in particular near the Andes foothills the simulated annual rainfall is largely determined by the Mountains shape.
... this case starting in the early 60s. Minetti and Vargas (1998) discussed the rain-fall trends... more ... this case starting in the early 60s. Minetti and Vargas (1998) discussed the rain-fall trends in southern South America and found positive jumps in the 1970 decade. Liebmann et al. (2004) analyzed seasonal linear trends over ...
Conversaciones: Encuentros por la pospandemia, 2020
Si la pandemia por COVID-19 que estamos atravesando es atroz, las consecuencias de una falta de a... more Si la pandemia por COVID-19 que estamos atravesando es atroz, las consecuencias de una falta de acción urgente frente al cambio climático son aún peores. La evidencia científica del nivel sin precedentes de la influencia humana en el clima es contundente: incremento sostenido de la temperatura media del planeta, ascenso del nivel del mar, retracción de glaciares y aumento en la ocurrencia de fenómenos extremos. Los impactos y riesgos que impone el cambio climático son evidentes en ámbitos como la salud de la población, recursos hídricos y biodiversidad, y en distintos sectores como producción de alimentos, generación de energía, infraestructura y transporte. Nuestra sobrevivencia depende de un desarrollo sostenible que tenga como eje central la protección del ambiente que hoy se encuentra amenazado tomando ventaja de las lecciones de la crisis actual para guiar la respuesta a la crisis climática.Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin
During recent years, numerous studies have examined the Buenos Aires urban climate, but the relat... more During recent years, numerous studies have examined the Buenos Aires urban climate, but the relationship between large-scale weather conditions and the Buenos Aires urban heat island (UHI) intensity has not been studied. The goal of this paper is to apply an objective synoptic climatological method to identify homogeneous air masses or weather types affecting Buenos Aires during winter, and to relate the results to the UHI intensity. A K-means clustering method was used to define six different air masses considering the 03:00, 09:00, 15:00 and 21:00 LT surface observations of dry bulb temperature, dew point, cloud cover, atmospheric pressure and wind direction and velocity at Ezeiza, the most rural meteorological station of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area (Fig. 1). Results show that the mean UHI intensity is at its maximum (2.8°C) a few hours before sunrise when conditions are dominated by cold air masses associated with cold-core anticyclones, weak winds and low cloud cover. Inverse heat islands are found during the afternoon for all air masses indicating that surface processes are not dominant at that time. The relatively infrequent and warmest air mass is the only one that presents a mean negative urban-rural temperature difference (-0.1°C) during the afternoon with the smallest diurnal cycle of the UHI intensity probably due to the prevailing high humidity and cloudy sky conditions. The paper provides an insight into the Buenos Aires urban-rural temperature difference under a variety of winter weather types and results could be useful to improve local daily temperature forecasts for the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires on the basis of the routine forecasts of weather types.
The annual pattern of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the western border of the South Atlantic hi... more The annual pattern of the sea level pressure (SLP) in the western border of the South Atlantic high between 25°S and 45°S has shifted southward since 1950. This trend was found, both in the NCEP reanalysis and in the South American coastal synoptic data. This annual shift was related to a change in the annual SLP cycle. To describe this annual cycle in a synthetic form, principal component (PC) analysis in T mode was applied to the correlation matrix of seasonal SLP means. The domain of this analysis was between 25°S - 45°S and 65°W - 45°W including southeastern South America. In this region, mean SLP is characterized by the meridional gradient corresponding to the west flow in the south, the southwester border of the South Atlantic high in the east and the Chaco low in the northwest. In winter, the field corresponding to the west flow spans northward of its mean annual position, while in summer the South Atlantic high intensifies and moves southward. The first two PC patterns repre...
Los esteros del Iberá son el segundo humedal más grande del mundo y en él habitan cientos de espe... more Los esteros del Iberá son el segundo humedal más grande del mundo y en él habitan cientos de especies vegetales y animales. La disponibilidad hídrica de la región es consecuencia del balance entre precipitación, evapotranspiración y escurrimiento siendo esta área altamente sensible a modificaciones en dicho balance. En este trabajo se presenta la calibración del modelo hidrológico distribuido VIC a la región de los esteros del Iberá en base a observaciones de temperatura, precipitación y viento en superficie. Asimismo se analiza la habilidad del modelo climático regional RCA3-E para simular el clima presente de la región y la capacidad del modelo VIC para representar el ciclo hidrológico del humedal cuando es forzado con los resultados de las simulaciones de RCA3-E. Se encontró que existen errores en el modelo climático que deterioran notablemente las simulaciones hidrológicas y que estas últimas pueden ser mejoradas si se aplica previamente al modelo regional un esquema de correcci...
Global climate models (GCMs) constitute the most reliable tool to simulate the processes that wil... more Global climate models (GCMs) constitute the most reliable tool to simulate the processes that will determine climate change at both global and regional scales. Nevertheless, GCMs predictions are subject to considerable uncertainties. In this sense, the confidence to use GCMs should be based on an exhaustive evaluation of their performance, using observation datasets and model inter-comparison activities. At the present time, a set of GCMs simulations which would be included in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is recently available. It is required to evaluate, at both regional and global scales, the ability of these simulations to represent the present climate. There are few studies that have analyzed the ability of theses simulations to characterize the 20th century climate particularly in South American region. The aim of the present study is to compare the ability of two sets of GCMs derived from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 inter-comparison projects to rep...
Climate change is nowadays considered as one of the greatest problems humanity is facing due to t... more Climate change is nowadays considered as one of the greatest problems humanity is facing due to the magnitude of its impact on economy, society and ecology. Southern South America, and in particular La Plata Basin, are areas where climate change is detected with major intensity. The principal objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of GCMs available from the WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Dataset Archive to represent the present climate (1960-1999) of southeastern South America with emphasis on precipitation and relevant atmospheric processes such as water vapor transport. Seasonal precipitation fields derived from GCMs were compared with the University of Delaware database available in a 0.5º x 0.5º grid. The evaluation of present climate model simulations was done using Climate of the 20th Century (20C3M) experiments. GCMs skill to represent the observed precipitation and water vapor transport fields was assessed from the linear spatial correlation coefficients between seasonal...
ABSTRACT In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average,... more ABSTRACT In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extension of crop lands into semiarid regions, but this increase also came with more frequent heavy rainfalls and consequent flooding of rural and urban areas. Since the early 1970s, the main rivers of the Plata Basin have increased their mean flows, but this was attributable not only to increased precipitation, but also to land use changes. In contrast, over the Andes Mountains, reduced rainfall and increased temperature has led to glaciers receding and reduced river flows. Climate projections for the first half of this century maintain observed trends and raise additional concerns that in most cases can be dealt with timely adaptation policies. However, by the end of this century, under an extreme emissions scenario, the projected warming reaches 3.5°C in the north of the country with respect to present-day conditions. There is insufficient knowledge to assume that this warming would not create severe damages to the people and the economy of Argentina. Because of the damages and casualties that heat waves and extreme precipitation events are already producing, the first and most urgent adaptation required is to reinforce early warning systems and contingency planning to cope with climatic extremes and their consequences on health.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.
ABSTRACT The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtro... more ABSTRACT The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtropical South America. It forces the development of a lee-side trough that covers most of western Argentina and a low-level jet that maximizes over Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina and is tightly linked to precipitation variability over much of central and southeastern South America. Its steep slopes and the large zonal gradients in topography between the Equator and 40°S are misrepresented in climate simulations using Global Climate Models (GCM) with resolutions coarser than about 100 km, since they naturally have a poor representation of the Andes and related circulation features. This paper analyses the impact of varying artificially the altitude of the Andes Cordillera in a GCM as well as increasing the horizontal resolution to study how these variations determine moisture fluxes and precipitation over selected regions of South America. Results show that the height of the Andes is crucial in shaping moisture fluxes pathways onto subtropical South America all year long. In particular, the low-level jet is only simulated when the Andes heights are doubled. At the same time, the relationship between the Andes shape and the location of the Bolivian High in summer is also discussed. In terms of precipitation, the lowest bias in the simulations is achieved when the horizontal resolution is increased, while in particular near the Andes foothills the simulated annual rainfall is largely determined by the Mountains shape.
... this case starting in the early 60s. Minetti and Vargas (1998) discussed the rain-fall trends... more ... this case starting in the early 60s. Minetti and Vargas (1998) discussed the rain-fall trends in southern South America and found positive jumps in the 1970 decade. Liebmann et al. (2004) analyzed seasonal linear trends over ...
Adaptación frente a los RIESGOS DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN LOS PAÍSES IBEROAMERICANOS-INFORME RIOCCADAPT, 2020
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El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en ... more Español/ Português El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica, es una iniciativa pionera financiada por el Programa ARAUCLIMA de la Cooperación Española y llevada a cabo por científicos de alto nivel, gestores y otros expertos. El objetivo de este informe ha sido brindar información exhaustiva desde todas las áreas del conocimiento, así como herramientas e indicadores que faciliten la toma efectiva de acciones para la adaptación al cambio climático de todos los países de la región. En el presente Resumen para Responsables de Políticas se reporta en forma sucinta y asequible los alcances, conclusiones y recomendaciones recopiladas a lo largo de los 16 capítulos referente a las actuaciones sobre adaptación al cambio climático, de acuerdo a los principales sectores y sistemas de los países RIOCC. Se incluye además un análisis de las vulnerabilidades, así como de los riesgos e impactos más importantes del cambio climático y los casos de estudio que hemos considerado más ilustrativos y relevantes. Esperamos que este material sea de utilidad para la toma de decisiones y diseño de políticas que respondan a la prioridad y urgente necesidad de iniciar acciones que nuestros países requieren para una adaptación efectiva al cambio climático.
O Relatório RIOCCADAPT, Adaptação aos riscos das alterações climáticas nos países da Rede Ibero-Americana de Escritórios para as Alterações Climáticas (RIOCC), constituída pelos países de língua espanhola e portuguesa da América, ilhas das Caraíbas e Península Ibérica, é uma iniciativa pioneira financiada pelo Programa ARAUCLIMA de Cooperação Espanhola e levada a cabo por cientistas, gestores e outros peritos de alto nível. O objetivo deste relatório tem sido fornecer informações exaustivas de todas as áreas do conhecimento, bem como ferramentas e indicadores que facilitem uma ação eficaz de adaptação às mudanças climáticas em todos os países da região. Este Resumo para Decisores Políticos relata de forma sucinta e acessível os âmbitos, conclusões e recomendações compiladas ao longo dos 16 capítulos relativos a ações de adaptação às alterações climáticas, de acordo com os principais sectores e sistemas dos países do RIOCC. Inclui também uma análise das vulnerabilidades, bem como os riscos e impactos mais importantes das alterações climáticas e os estudos de caso que consideramos mais ilustrativos e relevantes. Esperamos que este material seja útil para a tomada de decisões e conceção de políticas que respondam à necessidade prioritária e urgente de iniciar ações que os nossos países necessitam para uma adaptação eficaz às mudanças climáticas.
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El Informe RIOCCADAPT, Adaptación frente a los riegos del cambio climático en los países de la Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), conformada por los países de lengua española y portuguesa de América, islas del Caribe y la Península Ibérica, es una iniciativa pionera financiada por el Programa ARAUCLIMA de la Cooperación Española y llevada a cabo por científicos de alto nivel, gestores y otros expertos. El objetivo de este informe ha sido brindar información exhaustiva desde todas las áreas del conocimiento, así como herramientas e indicadores que faciliten la toma efectiva de acciones para la adaptación al cambio climático de todos los países de la región.
En el presente Resumen para Responsables de Políticas se reporta en forma sucinta y asequible los alcances, conclusiones y recomendaciones recopiladas a lo largo de los 16 capítulos referente a las actuaciones sobre adaptación al cambio climático, de acuerdo a los principales sectores y sistemas de los países RIOCC. Se incluye además un análisis de las vulnerabilidades, así como de los riesgos e impactos más importantes del cambio climático y los casos de estudio que hemos considerado más ilustrativos y relevantes. Esperamos que este material sea de utilidad para la toma de decisiones y diseño de políticas que respondan a la prioridad y urgente necesidad de iniciar acciones que nuestros países requieren para una adaptación efectiva al cambio climático.
O Relatório RIOCCADAPT, Adaptação aos riscos das alterações climáticas nos países da Rede Ibero-Americana de Escritórios para as Alterações Climáticas (RIOCC), constituída pelos países de língua espanhola e portuguesa da América, ilhas das Caraíbas e Península Ibérica, é uma iniciativa pioneira financiada pelo Programa ARAUCLIMA de Cooperação Espanhola e levada a cabo por cientistas, gestores e outros peritos de alto nível. O objetivo deste relatório tem sido fornecer informações exaustivas de todas as áreas do conhecimento, bem como ferramentas e indicadores que facilitem uma ação eficaz de adaptação às mudanças climáticas em todos os países da região.
Este Resumo para Decisores Políticos relata de forma sucinta e acessível os âmbitos, conclusões e recomendações compiladas ao longo dos 16 capítulos relativos a ações de adaptação às alterações climáticas, de acordo com os principais sectores e sistemas dos países do RIOCC. Inclui também uma análise das vulnerabilidades, bem como os riscos e impactos mais importantes das alterações climáticas e os estudos de caso que consideramos mais ilustrativos e relevantes. Esperamos que este material seja útil para a tomada de decisões e conceção de políticas que respondam à necessidade prioritária e urgente de iniciar ações que os nossos países necessitam para uma adaptação eficaz às mudanças climáticas.