clovis freire

About productive transformation policies Increasingly, national and local economies must adapt and innovate by diversifying and upgrading their productive capacity. They must avoid stagnation in context of evolving economic, social and environmental circumstances. Cities benefit from more inclusive patterns of growth, greater resource efficiency, reduced environmental degradation, and enhanced social stability and inclusion. National and local governments play vital roles in facilitating the transformation process, in part due to their influence over the business environment and their potential to steer investment decisions in more productive, equitable and sustainable directions. Productive transformation policies (PTP) are defined as public programmes and instruments designed to create jobs and achieve sustainable growth through higher productivity and promotion of competitive sectors. PTP often focus on cluster and value chain development, agglomerations, foreign investment, busi...

Recent collaborations between economists and physicists have cleared the way for innovative research on the relationship between economic diversification, international specialization, trade and economic development. The resulting literature rests on the idea that the products that countries produce provide information about the non-tradable productive capabilities that countries have. These capabilities include infrastructure, institutions, regulations, and specific productive knowledge and skills. The greater a country’s capabilities, the greater the variety of goods a country can produce. Therefore, economic diversification is considered a quintessential characteristic of economic development. Within this framework a diversified economy is considered to be a complex one. This complexity is not simply due to the mere number of productive sectors but also to the interconnections that arise because of the shared capabilities that they require for production. To study these interconn...

Abstract Economic diversification is relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylized facts about the pattern of diversification of economies, but the development of explanations for those patterns, in general, has been only loosely associated with an economic theory on growth, trade, technology change and structural transformation. Making that connection is relevant because it could inform policymakers in developing countries in designing and implementing policies for promoting diversification. This paper presents a model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change that can replicate empirical regularities related to economic diversification.

Least developed countries (LDCs) in the Asia-Pacific region face severe structural impediments to growth and sustainable development. The majority of their population makes living from agriculture, including horticulture, livestock, fisheries and forestry, and the development of that sector is a key priority of action for their inclusive and sustainable development. Given their particular situation, LDCs in Asia-Pacific should consider an integrated strategy that uses intersectoral linkages and labour movements between agriculture and agro-industries to promote balanced and inclusive development.

Economic development is associated with structural transformation and the increase of complexity of production and exports. This paper examines whether strategic diversification is required to increase economic complexity or whether market incentives would be sufficient to drive this process of catching-up. The paper applies empirical methods of the strand of the literature on economic complexity to examine how path dependency and the demand for potential new products affect economic diversification. It argues that strategic diversification is required in cases when demand factors are very likely to create incentives for diversification towards less complex products, which hinders the increase of productive capacities of countries. The paper presents the results of analysis considering 221 economies and shows that less diversified economies would not be able to rely on market incentives alone. They have to strategically diversify towards more complex products, which require the sele...

Concerns with high and volatile prices of food and fuel remain at the centre of the policy agenda. Volatility of commodity prices continues to be influenced by fundamentals of demand and supply, but is exacerbated by the financialization of commodity markets. High global liquidity has played an important role in supporting the persistently high prices of oil and globally traded food commodities. The challenge was highlighted by the head of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Mr. Jose Graziano da Silva, during the opening of the Ministerial Meeting on International Food Prices in October 2013: “International prices have declined but they are still above their historical levels. And prices are expected to remain volatile over the next years. Asia-Pacific countries are well aware of this fact. The region was severely affected by food and fuel price hikes during 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, slowing the progress in poverty reduction. ESCAP estimates show that, ba...

With the rise of emerging countries in the Asia and Pacific region as growth poles of the world economy, South-South cooperation (SSC) and triangular development cooperation (TDC) have become viable strategies for development. This Policy Brief reviews the emerging trends and patterns of SSC and TDC in the region, and outlines a policy agenda for strengthening and enhancing their effectiveness.

Economic development is associated with structural transformation and the increase of complexity of production and exports. This paper examines whether strategic diversification is required to increase economic complexity or whether market incentives would be sufficient to drive this process of catching-up. The paper applies empirical methods of the strand of the literature on economic complexity to examine how path dependency and the demand for potential new products affect economic diversification. It argues that strategic diversification is required in cases when demand factors are very likely to create incentives for diversification towards less complex products, which hinders the increase of productive capacities of countries. The paper presents the results of analysis considering 221 economies and shows that less diversified economies would not be able to rely on market incentives alone. They have to strategically diversify towards more complex products, which require the sele...

High food prices have put increasing inflationary pressures across the Asia-Pacific region and threatened food security. Bad weather in important food-producing countries and speculation in commodity markets have affected global food supplies and added volatility to booming commodity markets that have been fueled in the long-term by increasing global demand. High food prices have threatened to slowdown economic growth, poverty reduction and inclusive sustainable development throughout the region. Countries of the region have taken various measures to address the risk of adverse effects caused by high international food prices. This paper outlines policy responses and interventions that governments in the region can make to counter the adverse impact of food inflation.

Economic diversification is very relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. That need has been recognised in key internationally agreed development goals. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylised facts about the pattern of diversification of economies, but the development of explanations for those patterns in general has been only loosely associated with economic theory on growth, trade, technology change and structural transformation. Making that connection is relevant because it could inform policymakers in developing countries in designing and implementing policies for promoting diversification. This paper presents a model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change that is able to replicate empirical regularities related to economic diversification. The model is used to study strategies to foster diversification in poorer countries, which could help to better target action in the imple...

The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This publication has been issued without formal editing. Catastrophes caused by natural hazards that hit “without warning” serve as grim reminders of the challenge that governments and civil society face in identifying and protecting the areas that are at risk of extreme events. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the threshold of social and economic impact of disasters that indicate events that were the manifestation of high levels of risk. It shows the result of the application of the methodology to Desinventar dataset, which covers 20 countries/regions, and the change in the level of the threshold in the past forty years. The methodology is expected to contribute to th...

Recent collaborations between economists and physicists have cleared the way for innovative research on the relationship between economic diversification, international specialization, trade and economic development. The resulting literature rests on the idea that the products that countries produce provide information about the non-tradable productive capabilities that countries have. These capabilities include infrastructure, institutions, regulations, and specific productive knowledge and skills. The greater a country’s capabilities, the greater the variety of goods a country can produce. Therefore, economic diversification is considered a quintessential characteristic of economic development. Within this framework a diversified economy is considered to be a complex one. This complexity is not simply due to the mere number of productive sectors but also to the interconnections that arise because of the shared capabilities that they require for production. To study these interconn...

The paper provides quantitative estimates of the productive capacities of the countries in the Asia- Pacific region and their evolution in the past 25 years. It updates the results for 2009 presented in the ESCAP’s Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2011 and details the methodology used to create the productive capacity index. It finds that, except from the region’s developed countries and emerging developing economies, the majority of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region have productive capacities that are below the world’s average. This paper also shows that has been very difficult for countries to improve their productive capacities when they start from lower levels. It also finds that while there has been convergence in productive capacity amongst countries that were initially above the average, countries that two decades ago had below average productive capacity have lagged further behind, which suggests increasing overall divergence.

New measures and strategies for the sustainable development of the least developed countries into the next decade should pay special attention to the transformation of their productive capacities – not only to produce more of the same but to produce and trade new and more sophisticated products. Productive capacities can be generated by the process of strategic diversification through the combined efforts of the State and the private sector with a supportive role played by development partners. This Policy Brief outlines a policy agenda for such an effort in the context of the Fourth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC-IV).

This paper approaches inclusive development in South and South-West Asia through the framework of structural transformation and productive capacities. It discusses the opportunities for these countries to build their productive capacities through product diversification and presents a list of potential new products and export markets that could be targeted by government and private sector for achieving higher long-term gains. The paper also discusses country-specific strategies that combine laissez-faire and strategic diversification approaches to facilitate the emergence of new economic activities that are more likely to increase the productive capacities in the country.

This paper analyses the effect of public and private health expenditures on the achievement of health-related MDGs. It finds that three quarters of the variation of health-related MDG indicators can be explained by public and private health expenditure per capita when controlling for levels of income and demographic factors such as age dependency ratio, urbanization and population density. In addition, the analysis finds that marginal gain in health performance is higher for countries with low per capita public health expenditures. The paper also estimates country’s potential for increasing health expenditure and suggests that some of the countries that are behind in their progress towards the achievement of the MDGs have the potential to complement the shortfall through increasing their public health expenditure to levels that are compatible with their per capita income and demographic structure.

Although the Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), most of its countries are still off-track on one or more indicators. This policy brief examines what would it take for countries in the Asia-Pacific region to meet their MDG targets by 2015. It first focuses on the income-poverty gap which continues to persist despite high rates of growth. It then goes on to provide estimates of the resources needed for closing the MDG gaps in the areas of education, health, nutrition and sanitation. It concludes with a few remarks on policy challenges in the light of the findings.

Economic diversification is very relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. That need has been recognised in key internationally agreed development goals. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylised facts about the pattern of diversification of economies, but the development of explanations for those patterns in general has been only loosely associated with economic theory on growth, trade, technology change and structural transformation. Making that connection is relevant because it could inform policymakers in developing countries in designing and implementing policies for promoting diversification. This paper presents a model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change that is able to replicate empirical regularities related to economic diversification. The model is used to study strategies to foster diversification in poorer countries, which could help to better target action in the imple...

Building productive capacities is a top priority for least developed countries to promote development and graduate from the status of least developed country. This paper discusses the challenges and the opportunities for these countries to build their productive capacities. It argues that the main challenge is to manage the long-term effects of the increase in the terms of trade of commodities and reduction of terms of trade of manufactures, which threaten their growth trajectory. The paper presents a method to identify the opportunities for diversification that promotes the generation and acquisition of productive capacities. It also presents a list of potential new products and export markets that could be targeted by government and private sector for achieving higher long-term gains.

This paper estimates the impact of the high food prices of 2010 on income poverty and the achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific. It also estimates the impacts of high price during 2011 under various scenarios for the prices of food and oil. We find that although the high food prices of 2010 have not caused an increase in poverty in the region, they slowed down the rate of poverty reduction - the estimated number of poor decreased by 24.5 million people between 2009 and 2010, compared with 43.8 million people if staple food prices had not increased above domestic rates of inflation. By detailing the methodology and assumptions used to produce our estimates, the paper also highlights the need for broader and more open discussion on methodological issues to provide policymakers and poverty data users with a better understanding of the limitations of any such exercise.

Growth in South Asia has not resulted in structural transformation and increase of productive capacities. This paper presents a methodology to identify the opportunities for countries in South Asia to build their productive capacities and promote structural transformation through the emulation of the productive structure of more developed countries. The paper also discusses country-specific strategies that combine laissez-faire and strategic diversification approaches to facilitate the emergence of new economic activities that are more likely to increase the productive capacities in the country. In addition to its relevance to the formulation of inclusive development policies in South Asia, this paper contributes to the industrial policy literature by exploring the use of empirical data to verify the need for selective policies.

Economic development is associated with structural transformation and the increase of complexity of production and exports. This paper examines whether strategic diversification is required to increase economic complexity or whether market incentives would be sufficient to drive this process of catching-up. The paper applies empirical methods of the strand of the literature on economic complexity to examine how path dependency and the demand for potential new products affect economic diversification. It argues that strategic diversification is required in cases when demand factors are very likely to create incentives for diversification towards less complex products, which hinders the increase of productive capacities of countries. The paper presents the results of analysis considering 221 economies and shows that less diversified economies would not be able to rely on market incentives alone. They have to strategically diversify towards more complex products, which require the sele...

Catastrophes caused by natural hazards that hit “without warning” serve as grim reminders of the challenge that governments and civil society face in identifying and protecting the areas that are at risk of extreme events. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the threshold of social and economic impact of disasters that indicate events that were the manifestation of high levels of risk. It shows the result of the application of the methodology to Desinventar dataset, which covers 20 countries/regions, and the change in the level of the threshold in the past forty years. The methodology is expected to contribute to the international effort to identify, assess and monitor disaster risks to allow the effective integration of risk reduction into development strategies.

ABSTRACT This paper estimates the impact of the high food prices of 2010 on income poverty and the achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific. It also estimates the impacts of expected high price during 2011 under various scenarios for the prices of food and oil. We find that although the high food prices of 2010 have not caused an increase in poverty in the region, they slowed down the rate of poverty reduction - the estimated number of poor decreased by 24.5 million people between 2009 and 2010, compared with 43.8 million people if staple food prices had not increased above domestic rates of inflation. By detailing the methodology and assumptions used to produce our estimates, the paper also highlights the need for a broader and more open discussion on methodological issues to provide policymakers and users of poverty data with a better understanding of the limitations of any such exercise.

Economic development is associated with structural transformation and the increase of complexity of production and exports. This paper examines whether strategic diversification is required to increase economic complexity or whether market incentives would be sufficient to drive this process of catching-up. The paper applies empirical methods of the strand of the literature on economic complexity to examine how path dependency and the demand for potential new products affect economic diversification. It argues that strategic diversification is required in cases when demand factors are very likely to create incentives for diversification towards less complex products, which hinders the increase of productive capacities of countries. The paper presents the results of analysis considering 221 economies and shows that less diversified economies would not be able to rely on market incentives alone. They have to strategically diversify towards more complex products, which require the selective promotion of economic activities through the use of targeted industrial, infrastructure, trade, investment and private sector development policies.

Economic diversification is very relevant for poorer developing countries to create jobs and foster economic development. That need has been recognised in key internationally agreed development goals. The empirical economic literature has identified several stylised facts about the pattern of diversification of economies, but the development of explanations for those patterns in general has been only loosely associated with economic theory on growth, trade, technology change and structural transformation. Making that connection is relevant because it could inform policymakers in developing countries in designing and implementing policies for promoting diversification. This paper presents a model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change that is able to replicate empirical regularities related to economic diversification. The model is used to study strategies to foster diversification in poorer countries, which could help to better target action in the implementation of internationally agreed goals related to the economic diversification of these countries.

This paper estimates the impact of the high food prices of 2010 on income poverty and the achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific. It also estimates the impacts of expected high price during 2011 under various scenarios for the prices of food and oil. We find that although the high food prices of 2010 have not caused an increase in poverty in the region, they slowed down the rate of poverty reduction - the estimated number of poor decreased by 24.5 million people between 2009 and 2010, compared with 43.8 million people if staple food prices had not increased above domestic rates of inflation. By detailing the methodology and assumptions used to produce our estimates, the paper also highlights the need for a broader and more open discussion on methodological issues to provide policymakers and users of poverty data with a better understanding of the limitations of any such exercise.