Asian Security and Defense Policy

The mini-thesis is an independent geo-strategic analysis of (ongoing) Taiwan - China frictions--which was due to being awarded a Fellowship by Taiwan, ROC, Ministry of Foreign Affairs during 2018. The thesis comprises a short history of Taiwan and China in relation to  the machinations; a discussion of the way in which a war will break out; the 'type' of war that will take place; and crucially, a forecast of when (and why) it will happen.

The Rules-Based Order (RBO) underpins the global maritime trading and security system. A subject of growing discussion and debate in strategic studies circles, it is seen by many as a prerequisite for seaborne trade and commerce, and a crucial factor in formulating national security policy. While many Asian powers have a shared understanding of the principles of maritime conduct, regional states have tended to situate the RBO within the framework of “balance of power”, with a focus on countering Chinese aggression in the littorals. This paper examines the Rules-Based Order in Asia from a ‘maritime operations’ lens, evaluating India’s options in the near and extended neighbourhood. It argues that notwithstanding growing discord with Beijing, New Delhi could devise a protocol of maritime engagement to reduce conflict and improve cooperation in the commons. In doing so, the two Asian powers could come to an understanding on the normative principles of interaction in the littorals. Even so, there are likely to be no easy options for New Delhi.

During 30-years of writing on international politics, I have seen a great many changes in world politics. In this period, a number of events have been outstanding and will influence the security of the Asia-Pacific region into the twenty-first century.

Before North Korea agreed to freeze and dismantle its nuclear programme in exchange for the full normalisation of political and economic relations with the United States in 1994, the peninsula once again came close to war. At that time, Japan prepared a secret plan called K  peninsula’s situation plan, estimating the number of refugees that could come to Japan at 220,000 from South Korea and 50,000 from North Korea. Although the Defence Ministry has not openly declared it, it might possibly be working on such a plan currently. However, questions raised by Taro Aso and the criticism that followed shows that little progress has been made between 1994 and 2017. It is important to consider worst-case scenarios, to implement procedures and to set-up refugees-host simulations in order to avoid decisions onthe spot that could lead to misjudgements and tensions. Yet, significant changes won’t happen as long as Japan fails to clarify the role of its army and adapt its Constitution accordingly.

The nature of social mobilization, civil wars and terrorism dissemination in Central Asia bring a volatile characteristic to national security to the states of this region. The main scope of this article will involve the explanation of divergent types of order maintenance, relative or not, in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In Kyrgyzstan, mobilizations are complex, secessionist, borderlike and marked with ethnic ordains, although sporadic. The securitarian process in Tajikistan is derived in precarious economic development factors, political fragility, excessive corruption, cooptation of the Islamic extremism, hence of the terrorism often linked to it. Based on the precepts of neoliberal institutionalism, this article will argument that to build democratic values and promote the strengthening of national security, it is necessary to reestablish a discourse of governance towards international cooperation and institutionalization of transparency and defragmentation of the securitarian policies in these states as a tool to reduce the insecurity and vulnerability margins.

The Mitsubishi Advanced Technology Demonstrator-X (ATD-X) Shinshin is a testbed aircraft being  developed by the Japanese Ministry of Defence’s Ministry’s Technical Research and Development Institute (TRDI). Its purpose is to evaluate the feasibility of developing and producing a domestic fifth-generation fighter. If this takes place, a key question is whether Tokyo would offer the resulting aircraft to key partners like Taiwan and the Philippines.

A brief look at Japan's growing range of security and defence relations, with particular attention to Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom, and mentions to India and Australia. An essential aspect of Tokyo's 'normalization as a military power'