Cointegration

The purpose of this paper is to measure the risks posed by the COVID-19 outbreak on financial market indicators, which caused uncertainty and fear all over the world. In the paper, the Fourier KPSS unit root test, which helps to measure structural breaks more precisely by means of the Fourier transformations in time series, the Fourier-SHIN Cointegration Test to determine long-term relationships between time series, and the Fourier Granger Causality Test to determine causality relationships are used. As a result of these tests applied on the daily price series between 31.12.2019 and 01.05.2020, it has been found that in the long term, the COVID-19 outbreak has a significant effect on stock markets, crude oil representing oil markets, and fear index; but no significant effect on Bitcoin which represents money markets. In the short term, it is concluded that COVID-19 has had a significant effect on stock markets, crude oil, fear index, and Bitcoin.

The main purpose of this research paper is to explore and understand the nature of association and the possible existence of a short run and long run relationship between US Dollar, EURO, British Pound and Japanese Yen. To find out the relationship among currencies USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR pairs are considered. The main idea is to know how these selected indicators are related to each other. The daily basis 2781 observations for all four variables from year 2007 to 2018 are taken into consideration. Data are collected from website of Reserve Bank of India. The stationarity of time series is checked and differentiated as per requirement. Johansen co-integration test to know the long run relationship between variables is used. The result shows that there is no co-integration equation among the variables. The short run relationship is examined with help of Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model and the short run relationship within different lags of variables has been identifi...

Recent cross-country empirical evidence indicates that the money-prices relationship depends on the level of inflation. This relationship is close to proportional for high inflation economies, but weakens when mean inflation is lower. Based on these findings, we focus on the Argentine experience along the last 30 years. Using descriptive analysis as well as cointegration tests we find that proportionality holds for the high inflation period but weakens under the low inflation regime. Money velocity is quite volatile but keeps a positive correlation with inflation in the long run. Under low inflation, velocity correlates negatively with money growth, a result consistent with the empirical evidence in the literature. We use VAR analysis to study the short-run dynamics of money and prices under high and low inflation. Including relevant macroeconomic variables such as the nominal interest rate, the exchange rate depreciation and GDP growth we study the transmission of nominal shocks to...

This paper investigates the relationship between human capital and economic growth in Pakistan with aggregate time series data. Estimated with the Johansen (1991) approach, the fitted model indicates a critical role for human capital in boosting the economy’s capacity to absorb world technical progress. Much higher returns, including spillovers, to secondary schooling in Pakistan than in OECD economies is consistent with very substantial education under-investment in Pakistan. Similarly, extremely large returns to health spending compare very favorably with industrial investment. Human capital is estimated to have accounted for just under one-fifth of the increase in Pakistan’s GDP per head. Since the 1990s, the impact of deficient human capital policies is shown by the negative contribution to economic growth.

This paper examined the demand for broad money and its long run stability in Ghana. Multivariate time series approach was used. Since all the variables are integrated of order one, Johansen's cointegration approach is used to establish that the variables are cointegrated. Hence, vector error correction model was used to find the determinants of broad money. Also, CUMSUM and CUMSUMSQ plots are used to check the long run stability of the demand function. It was established that nominal foreign interest rate and expected inflation were long run determinants of demand for money while real income and nominal exchange rate were short run determinants. Also, it was found that the long run broad money demand function was stable over the period under consideration. It was recommended that monetary policy authorities should continue to implement policies that will enhance macroeconomic stability (price stability) and facilitate economic growth. Introduction This study aims at investigatin...

This working paper gathers three projects of articles which have as a same subject inflation expectations and their use within the framework of monetary policy. It appeared convenient to synthesize them in the form of three parts of only one document, thus making it possible to the reader to have a vision as complete as possible on this question. The first part is of a theoretical nature and presents the literature. The second points out this literature, specifies the characteristics of a monetary policy founded on a direct target of inflation, and proposes an econometric analyse in the French case. The third extends this methodology to the case of the euro zone and shows the difficulties of it.

Currently, Botswana is one of high income economies in Africa. Since independence in 1966, the government has put emphasis on the development of human capital through education and skills development of the citizens. The country has dedicated much of the government funds to education to the extent possible while the contribution and payoffs of education expenditure have been limited. This study examines data from 1960-2013 and attempts to link GDP and education expenditure in a long run framework. It has been noted that member states of the United Nations are under pressure to achieve development goals and countries like Botswana need to estimate not only public spending requirements and the macroeconomic implications of financing them, but also the potential social and economic rewards associated with education. Estimations show that at least 40% of people in developing economies are illiterate and governments intend to leave no stone unturned in eliminating this problem. This study applies the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality procedure to examine the long run affiliations of the variables. Astoundingly, for Botswana economy, there is no long run comovement between GDP and education expenditure for the period 1960-2013. It is advised to review the quality of education and the programmes offered by the local institutions. Jel code:

The aim of the study is the relationship between foreign direct investments, exports and economic growth. The analysis of this study included E7 (Emerging 7) the so-called developing countries are Turkey, Mexico, China, India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia in the analysis in this context. This study covered the period of 1992-2018. Pesaran (2007) panel unit root test was used for the analysis of the series stationary. Panel ARDL approach, which allows short and long term relationship, is used for series with different levels of stationary. According to the results of the error correction model established for all panel, any shock in the gross domestic product equation was adjusted by approximately 0.86 % within the first year. Error correction models were estimated for all units, and error correction terms for all units expect India were obtained as negative and statistically significant. As a result of the panel causality test, one-way causality findings were found between economic growth and exports. Additionally, there was a causality relationship with foreign direct investments and exports.

Tax policy is among the most common and relevant instruments in the toolkit of policy-makers when thinking
about promoting growth, yet there is not compelling evidence regarding its effect in Tunisia. Using a variety of
approaches, we measure firstly the optimal tax burden rate using Scully’s static model and the quadratic model. For
Scully’s static model, gross domestic product is the dependent variable. For the quadratic model, growth rate is a
dependent variable explained by tax rate in level and in square. Secondly and according to stationary and cointegration
test results, we focus on the long-term effects on gross domestic product of the important taxes, namely tax revenue and
private receipts. In this second study, we use a basic Scully model and we develop a vector error correction model
technique. Our results show that optimal tax burden rate has to be situated between 12.8% and 19.6% of gross domestic
product which is widely lower than the current rates. The long-term analysis estimates an optimal rate of 14% of gross
domestic product which can participate to increase economic growth, to stabilize the tax evasion and to encourage
investment especially after the Tunisian revolution

Economists have investigated the relationship between output and export in order to explain economic growth for long years. Numerous studies have found very close correspondence between the growth of output and export. It is commonly known that Thirlwall's papers indicate very tight relationship between the growth of output and the ratio of the growth of exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports. This
paper aims to apply Thirlwall's balance-of-payments-constrained (BPC) model for the Turkish economy for 1968–2011 period. This research also evaluates the procedures of testing Thirlwall's principle by estimation of the income elasticity of demand for imports using the test of stationarity and cointegration methods. The findings are in accordance with the Harrod–Thirlwall growth model. The test results of Johansen cointegration
procedure and the comments on these results are presented as well.

Bu çalışmada, eğitim harcamaları ve sağlık-sosyal hizmet harcamaları ile GSYH arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. 1998Q1-2016Q2 dönemi verileri çoklu yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Maki (2012) eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, öncelikle Kapetanios (2005)'da geliştirilen ve çoklu yapısal kırılmaya izin veren birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme eşitliğinde yer alan tüm değişkenler istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve işaretleri de beklentilerle uyumludur. FMOLS yöntemiyle tahmin edilen eşbütünleşme eşitliği; eğitim harcamalarındaki %1'lik değişimin GSYH üzerinde %0,51'lik bir artışa neden olduğunu ve sağlık-sosyal hizmet harcamalarındaki %1'lik artışın ise GSYH üzerinde %0.36'lık bir artışa neden olduğunu göstermektedir.
In this study, it is aimed to examine the long term relationship among education expenditures, health-social services expenditures and GDP. 1998Q1-2016Q2 period was examined by a unit root test allowing multiple structural breaks that developed by Kapetanios (2005) and Maki (2012) cointegration test that considers multiple structural breaks. According to results of cointegration test, there is a long-run relationship between variables. And estimated cointegration equation by FMOLS method shows that; all variables in the cointegration equation are statistically significant and the signs of the variables are in line with expectations. In regard to FMOLS estimation; a 1% change in education expenditures cause a 0.51% increase in GDP, and a 1% increase in health-social services expenditures cause a 0.36% increase in GDP.

Abstract- Aggregate annual production of made tea in India is empirically analyzed in this study using time series analysis techniques. Important factors affecting tea production are identified and modeled using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model taking two variables at a time of which one is production, the variable of interest.

This paper investigates the causal links between budget deficit (BD) and other
macroeconomic variables such as Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) for Greece, during the period 1980-
2009. Empirical evidence based on Variance Error Correction Model (VECM) and variance
decomposition estimates indicate that the variables under study are cointegrated and that
one-way causalities exist running from NEER to BD and from BD to GDP. Moreover,
results imply that bidirectional causal links between NEER and CPI exist in the case of
Greece while GDP granger-causes CPI. However, this study finds no significant links
between budget deficit and inflation in the case of Greece. Therefore, this paper highlights
the fact that NEER has a direct impact on Greece’s budget deficit, which is in line with the
majority of relevant academic works. So, the Greek government should closely monitor the
impact of NEER on the budget deficit of Greece, especially under the severe
macroeconomic pressure that the sovereign debt crisis causes on the Greek economy since
2009.

The article attempts to delve the comprehensive understanding between trade balance and currency depreciation by incorporating the absorption and monetary approaches, including the Marshal Lerner condition. In doing so, the Ng-Perron test is employed to find out the order of integration and the cointegration technique developed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to examine the long-run relationship between currency depreciation and trade balance. Our results reveal that there is a long-run relationship among trade balance, currency depreciation, real income and money supply. Any depreciation in local currency worsens the trade balance. The reforms in trade policies improve the trade balance in the future but deterioration in the trade balance seems to reverse this impact due to currency depreciation. A fall in money supply plays a vital role in improving the trade balance in Papua New Guinea. A rise in domestic income seems to recover the trade deficit.

The aim of this paper is to investigate, for the first time, the performance of trading strategies based on the combination of technical trading rules and fundamental analysis in the sale and purchase market for dry bulk ships. Using a sample of price and charter rates over the period January 1976 to September 2004, we establish the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between price and earnings and use this relationship as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions in the dry bulk shipping sector. In order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and to evaluate the robustness of our trading models, we also perform tests using the stationary bootstrap approach. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earnings–price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the second-hand market for ships, especially in the market for larger vessels, due to higher volatility in these markets.

We present a detailed study of portfolio optimisation based on cointegration, a statistical tool that here exploits a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and an index price. We compare the theoretical and empirical properties of cointegration optimal equity portfolios with those of portfolios optimised on the tracking error variance. From an eleven year out of sample performance analysis we

ÖZET: Geleneksel finans beklenen fayda ve rasyonel tercih olmak üzere iki temel varsayıma dayalı olarak gelişim göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte bu varsayımların yeterince gerçekçi olmadığı ileri sürülerek yoğun bir şekilde eleştirilmiştir. Davranışsal finans alanının temeli ise beklenti teorisine dayanmaktadır. Bu teoriye göre bireyler tam rasyonel hareket edemezler ve kayıplara, aynı miktarda kazançlardan daha fazla anlam yüklerler, riskten ve kayıptan kaçınma davranışı gösterirler. Davranışsal finans bireylerin davranış ve duygusal kalıplarını karar verme süreçlerine dahil ederek finansal karar verme süreçlerinde kullandıkları akıl yürütme kalıplarının daha gerçekçi olarak anlaşılmasını amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, geleneksel finans ve davranışsal finans alanları ile bu iki alanın temelleri üzerinde durulmuş ve genel prensipler üzerinden karşılaştırılarak tartışılmıştır. Bu çalışma, konuya ilişkin geniş kapsamlı bir bakış açısı yansıtmaktadır. Çalışmanın hedefi, geleneksel ve davranışsal finans disiplinlerinin ortaya koydukları farklı bakış açılarının ve temellerinin bir bütün olarak daha iyi anlaşılmasını sağlamaktır. Bu çalışma ile ayrıca, daha sonra yapılacak çalışmalarda kullanılabilecek teorik alt yapıya veya kavramsal çerçeveye katkı sağlanması da amaçlanmıştır.
ABSTRACT: Traditional finance has developed based on two fundamental assumptions, including the expected utility theory and rational choice or decision. However, this hypothesis has been criticized heavily by put forward that are not realistic enough. The basis of behavioral finance theory is based on the " prospect theory ". According to this theory individuals cannot act fully rational, they install more sense to loses than at the same amount of profit and they exhibit risk and loss aversion behaviour. Behavioral finance is intended individuals' understanding of the reasoning patterns that used in their financial decision-making as a more realistic by including the behavioral and emotional patterns of individuals to the decision making processes. This study has focused on traditional finance and behavioral finance fields and the basics of these two fields. And also these fields are discussed and compared with general principles. This study reflects the terms of a comprehensive view on the subject. The goal of the study is to provide a better understanding of the different viewpoints that put forward by traditional and behavioral finance disciplines as a whole. Also with this study it is aimed to contribute to the theoretical background and conceptual framework that will be used in next studies.

ABSTRACT Workers' remittance is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings for Bangladesh in recent years. It accounted for 12% of GDP in 2009 and has colossal socio-economic implications for the country. However, the inflows of foreign exchange earnings can exert adverse effects on the international competitiveness of an economy as postulated by the Dutch Disease theory. Using Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model and annual data from 1971 to 2008, this paper investigates the effects of remittances on the external trade competitveness as measured by the movements of real exchange rate of the country. The results of the study suggest that the influx of workers' remittances significantly appreciates the real exchange rate and deteriorates the external trade competitiveness of Bangladesh. While increased terms of trade indicates similar adverse effects, openness in goods and capital markets and nominal devaluation improve the trade competitiveness of the country. Therefore, greater trade openness and channelling remittances to the priority investment projects can be powerful policy devices to imporve the external competitiveness and avert 'Dutch Disease' in Bangladesh

Özet Özellikle 1980'li yılların sonlarında Türkiye'de döviz kontrolünün kaldırılmasından sonra, döviz kurlarında aşırı dalgalanmalar gözlemlenmiştir. Son dönemlerde yaşanan döviz kurundaki dalgalanmalar sonucu, döviz kurunu etkileyen faktörler tartışılmaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlam bu çalışma döviz kurunun belirlenmesinde parasalcı yaklaşımı ele almıştır. Modelde döviz kurlarını göreli para arzı, göreli gelir düzeyi, göreli faiz oranı ve göreli enflasyon belirlemektedir. Tüm değişkenlerin birim kök içerdiği Genelleştirilmiş Dickey Fuller ve Philips Perron testleri ile tespit edilmiştir. Johansen yöntemi ile değişkenler arasında en az bir eşbütünleşme vektörü olduğu bulunmuştur. Dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi sonuçlarına göre göreli gelir en fazla etkileyen faktördür. Göreli faiz oranı ve göreli enflasyon oranının etkileri önemsenmeyecek kadar azdır. Reel faiz farkları teorisinin açıklamaları bu çalışmanın bulgularıyla örtüşmektedir. Abstract Especially last part of the 1980s, after backing down from the control in the exchange rate market, over fluctuated exchange rate has been observed. Debates have started which factors affect exchange rate after the fluctuations in foreign exchange market, recently. In this context, the monetary approach to exchange rate determination is employed in this study. In the model, exchange rate is derived by relative income, money supply, interest rate and inflation. It is found that all variables have unit root by applying Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips Perron tests. There is at least one vector that all variables are cointegrated by employing Johansen cointegration test. As a result of dynamic ordinary least square approach, relative income is the most influential variable. The effects of the relative interest rate and inflation are infinitesimally. The explanations of the theory of the reel interest rate differential are overlap with the findings in this study.