Global Health

Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72•3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71•2-73•2) of deaths in 2016 with 19•3% (18•5-20•4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8•43% (8•00-8•67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1•80 million deaths (95% UI 1•59 million to 1•89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2•89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1•59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by ...

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate th...

Background: This study analyzes the current and evolving physical rehabilitation needs of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa), a coalition of large emergent economies increasingly important for global health. Methods: Secondary, cross-national analyses of data on Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Total physical rehabilitation needs, and those stratified per major condition groups are analyzed for the year 2017 (current needs), and for every year since 1990 (evolution over time). ANOVAs are used to detect significant yearly changes. Results: Total physical rehabilitation needs have increased significantly from 1990 to 2017 in each of the BRICS nations, in every metric analyzed (YLD Counts, YLDs per 100,000 people, and percentage of YLDs relevant to physical rehabilitation; all p < 0.01). Musculoskeletal & pain conditions were leading cause of physical rehabilitation needs across the BR...

The diagnosis of ocular allergy, which has become a real public health problem occurring in 25% of the general population and continues to rise, requires allergic testing. Skin and blood tests combined with interviewing the patient demonstrate sensitivity to one or more antigens. However, while allergic testing and interviews generally reveal the cause of the symptoms, only the conjunctival provocation test (CPT) provides clear evidence of a functional relation between the conjunctival pathology and exposure to the antigen. Since there is still no validated consensus regarding the criteria for positivity of the CPT in routine practice, the working group attempted to establish the major guidelines for conducting the test, to standardize approaches and pinpoint areas of uncertainty. The group established a consensus regarding the conditions for using the test (patient selection, allergens to be tested, usable concentrations, the test protocol, the signs and symptoms to be assessed, in...

Background Diarrhoeal diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are a leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years. Comprehensive global estimates of the diarrhoeal disease burden for specific age groups of children younger than 5 years are scarce, and the burden in children older than 5 years and in adults is also understudied. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 to assess the burden of, and trends in, diarrhoeal diseases overall and attributable to 13 pathogens, as well as the contributions of associated risk factors, in children and adults in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse vital registration data, verbal autopsy data, mortality surveillance data, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data. We used DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews, populationbased surveys, and claims and inpatient data. We calculated diarrhoeal disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each location, year, and age-sex group. For aetiology estimation, we used a counterfactual approach to quantify population-attributable fractions (PAFs). Additionally, we estimated the diarrhoeal disease burden attributable to the independent effects of risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. In 2021, diarrhoeal diseases caused an estimated 1•17 million (95% uncertainty interval 0•793-1•62) deaths globally, representing a 60•3% (50•6-69•0) decrease since 1990 (2•93 million [2•31-3•73] deaths). The most pronounced decline was in children younger than 5 years, with a 79•2% (72•4-84•6) decrease in diarrhoeal deaths. Global YLLs also decreased substantially, from 186 million (147-221) in 1990 to 51•4 million (39•9-65•9) in 2021. In 2021, an estimated 59•0 million (47•2-73•2) DALYs were attributable to diarrhoeal diseases globally, with 30•9 million (23•1-42•0) of these affecting children younger than 5 years. Leading risk factors for diarrhoeal DALYs included low birthweight and short gestation in the neonatal age groups, child growth failure in children aged between 1-5 months and 2-4 years, and unsafe water and poor sanitation in older children and adults. We estimated that the removal of all evaluated diarrhoeal risk factors would reduce global DALYs from 59•0 million (47•2-73•2) to 4•99 million (1•99-10•0) among all ages combined. Globally in 2021, rotavirus was the predominant cause of diarrhoeal deaths across all ages, with a PAF of 15•2% (11•4-20•1), followed by norovirus at 10•6% (2•3-17•0) and Cryptosporidium spp at 10•2% (7•03-14•3). In children younger than 5 years, the fatal PAF of rotavirus was 35•2% (28•7-43•0), followed by Shigella spp at 24•0% (15•2-37•9) and adenovirus at 23•8% (14•8-36•3). Other pathogens with a fatal PAF greater than 10% in children younger than 5 years included Cryptosporidium spp, typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, and enterotoxigenic E coli producing heat-stable toxin. Interpretation The substantial decline in the global burden of diarrhoeal diseases since 1990, particularly in children younger than 5 years, supports the effectiveness of health interventions such as oral rehydration therapy, enhanced water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure, and the introduction and scale-up of rotavirus vaccination. Targeted interventions and preventive measures against key risk factors and pathogens could further reduce this burden. Continued investment in the development and distribution of vaccines for leading pathogens remains crucial. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the healthrelated SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2•5th percentile and 100 as the 97•5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59•4 (IQR 35•4-67•3), ranging from a low of 11•6 (95% uncertainty interval 9•6-14•0) to a high of 84•9 (83•1-86•7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Firearm ownership and access. Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of...

Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72•3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71•2-73•2) of deaths in 2016 with 19•3% (18•5-20•4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8•43% (8•00-8•67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1•80 million deaths (95% UI 1•59 million to 1•89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2•89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1•59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted fo...

The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% unc...

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental...

Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Findings Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2•2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1•5-3•0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6•8% (5•8-8•0) of agestandardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3•8% (95% UI 3•2-4•3) of female deaths and 12•2% (10•8-13•6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2•3% (95% UI 2•0-2•6) and male attributable DALYs were 8•9% (7•8-9•9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1•4% [95% UI 1•0-1•7] of total deaths), road injuries (1•2% [0•7-1•9]), and self-harm (1•1% [0•6-1•5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27•1% (95% UI 21•2-33•3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18•9% (15•3-22•6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0•0-0•8) standard drinks per week. Interpretation Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The importance of this paper is based on the change occurring in industries outside of healthcare based on the emergence of new capabilities and processes. Healthcare and public health are also undergoing changes to their delivery operating models, which results from the increased testing of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) across underdeveloped and vast African landscapes to transport rapidly, vaccines and other medicines. (HCS, 2017) Public health, healthcare organizations, and rural communities will benefit from a proposal to use unmanned aerial vehicle (UAVs) as a rapid delivery platform for vaccines. (USAID, 2017) Specifically, UAVs could be used across Eastern and sub-Saharan Africa to tackle diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, Hepatitis B, Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and others that are endemic in Africa. (Thomas, 2018) Further, it is postulated that robust and sustainable vaccine delivery programs will result from implementation of programs that will require high capital investment funding through strategic partnerships across different institutions, to include African governments.

Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but...

We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Cochrane Library for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) up to 3 November 2022. We included participants aged ≥50 years diagnosed with cognitive impairment, with various cognitive training interventions as the intervention measures. The primary outcome was overall attention and the secondary outcomes were attention in different domains and global cognitive function. We calculated the Hedges' g and confidence intervals (CIs) using a random-effects model to evaluate the effect size of the outcome measures and evaluated heterogeneity using the χ2 test and I2 value. We included 17 RCTs and found that cognitive training interventions improve overall attention (Hedges' g = 0.41; 95% CI = 0.13, 0.70), selective attention (Hedges' g = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.19, 0.55), divided attention (Hedges' g = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.03, 0.72), and global cognitive function (Hedges' g = 0.30; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.58) in older adults with mild cognitive impairment, but with relatively low effectiveness. Cognitive training intervention can improve some attention functions in older adults with mild cognitive impairment. Attention function training should also be incorporated into routine activities and long-term sustainability planning to delay the deterioration of attention function in older adults. Besides reducing their risk of abnormal events in daily life (such as falls), it can also improve their quality of life and help reduce the progression of cognitive impairment, achieving early detection of secondary prevention. Registration PROSPERO (CRD42022385211).

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory ...

Abstract: Computational complexity theory is a branch of the theory of computation in theoretical computer science and mathematics that focuses on classifying computational problems according to their inherent difficulty, and relating those classes to each other. It is shown that the Iterated Local search(ILS) approach not only able to obtain good LHDs in the sense of space-filling property but the correlations among the factors are acceptable i.e. multicollinearity is not high. Anyway from the point of view of computational complexity the problem is open. When number of factors or number of design points is large then it requires hundreds of hours by the brute-force approach to find out the optimal design. So when numbers of factors as well as number of experimental points are large, the heuristic approaches also require a couple of hours or even more to find out a simulated optimal design. So time complexity is an important issue for a good algorithm. Specially for the need of rea...

Assessment of access to health products, technologies and services among the BRICS through their health indicators and their participation in global health policy CHAPTER 67 Assessment of access to health products, technologies and services among the BRICS through their health indicators and their participation in global health policy

Background: Women are over 3 times more likely to die in childbirth in Peru compared to the United States. Peru has had considerable success in diminishing maternal mortality rate (MMR, defined as the annual number of female deaths per 100,000 live births); nonetheless, poor, rural populations remain underserved medically. This study is designed to compare the MMR in urban areas to the rural mountain town of Otuzco, Peru.

Background We estimated the prevalence and socio-demographic risk factors of hypertension among Ghanaian adults as per the Joint National Committee 7 and the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Hypertension Association hypertension thresholds used for diagnosis and treatment. Methods This cross-sectional analysis included 12,151 adults (8, 295 females and 3,856 males) aged 18 years or older who participated in the 2014 Ghana Demographic and health Survey. Multiple logistic regression models were applied to obtain risk factors associated with hypertension as per both guidelines. Results Overall, 30.43% (n= 3698) and 11.48% (n= 1395) respondents had hypertension as per the 2017 ACC/AHA and JNC7 guidelines, respectively. The following factors were significant Domestic/Services/Skilled Manual/Unskilled manual. *Column percentages were taken. Inference was done using Pearson's χ² test.

Objectives. To examine divergences in the urban/rural disability among older adults in China and decompose these into variation represented by characteristics of individuals and communities and the different ways determinants impact on disability. Methods. Oaxaca-Blinder regression-based decomposition is applied to older adults 60 and older in China using the 20,000 observation sample from the 2000 Sample Survey on Aged Population in Urban/Rural China. Disability is determined by limitations in conducting Activities of Daily Living. Determinants represent four domains: socioeconomic status (SES), access, behaviors and social engagement. Results. Rural elders are significantly more likely to have a disability (21 % vs. 15%). The urban advantage is explained by differences in compositional variables, particularly those representing individual and community level SES. Rural elders benefit more from economic, social, and infrastructural resources differs by urban versus rural residence ...

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between ...

Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study. We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty. We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standa...

Overcoming childhood cancers is critically dependent on the state of research. Understanding how, with whom and what the research community is doing with childhood cancers is essential for ensuring the evidence-based policies at national and European level to support children, their families and researchers. As part of the European Union funded EUROCANCERCOMS project to study and integrate cancer communications across Europe, we have carried out new research into the state of research in childhood cancers. We are very grateful for all the support we have received from colleagues in the European paediatric oncology community, and in particular from Edel Fitzgerald and Samira Essiaf from the SIOP Europe office. This report and the evidence-based policies that arise from it come at a important junction for Europe and its Member States. They provide a timely reminder that research into childhood cancers is critical and needs sustainable long-term support.

Background: Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a major public health problem. A vital component of malaria control rests on the availability of good quality artemisinin-derivative based combination therapy (ACT) at the correct dose. However, there are increasing reports of poor quality anti-malarials in Africa. Methods: Seven collections of artemisinin derivative monotherapies, ACT and halofantrine anti-malarials of suspicious quality were collected in 2002/10 in eleven African countries and in Asia en route to Africa. Packaging, chemical composition (high performance liquid chromatography, direct ionization mass spectrometry, X-ray diffractometry, stable isotope analysis) and botanical investigations were performed. Results: Counterfeit artesunate containing chloroquine, counterfeit dihydroartemisinin (DHA) containing paracetamol (acetaminophen), counterfeit DHA-piperaquine containing sildenafil, counterfeit artemetherlumefantrine containing pyrimethamine, counterfeit halofantrine containing artemisinin, and substandard/ counterfeit or degraded artesunate and artesunate+amodiaquine in eight countries are described. Pollen analysis was consistent with manufacture of counterfeits in eastern Asia. These data do not allow estimation of the frequency of poor quality anti-malarials in Africa. Conclusions: Criminals are producing diverse harmful anti-malarial counterfeits with important public health consequences. The presence of artesunate monotherapy, substandard and/or degraded and counterfeit medicines containing sub-therapeutic amounts of unexpected anti-malarials will engender drug resistance. With the threatening spread of artemisinin resistance to Africa, much greater investment is required to ensure the quality of ACTs and removal of artemisinin monotherapies. The International Health Regulations may need to be invoked to counter these serious public health problems.

Leadership as a key building block of a health system plays a crucial role in achieving high performance and helps deliver change and shape the policy agenda and its implementation. Echoing the emerging need for effective leaders in Oncology, the "Improving Cancer Outcomes and Leadership Course" was developed jointly by the European School of Oncology (ESO), the European Cancer Organization (ECO) and Sharing Progress in Cancer Care (SPCC). The course was offered as a hybrid event online and in Warsaw in June 2022. It aimed to introduce early and mid-career cancer healthcare professionals of all disciplines and professions to the expertise required to develop strategic plans, support and collaborate in relevant applied health research, develop implementation approaches and acquire the skill sets required to support leadership and change management within their countries and regions. A total of 47 participants, mainly from Europe, participated and prepared 'case discussions' of organisational challenges or projects aiming to improve health care in their regions. These were deliberated and further developed in 3 break out groups. A qualitative evaluation of the course impact performed 2 years after the course showed that most participants remained in contact with each other, the majority had implemented learnings from the course to help improve cancer outcomes, 87 % had further developed their projects that were presented during the breakout sessions and of those 89 % felt that the discussions that were held during course had actively helped them to develop and potentially apply these projects. Finally, 77 % have thought of or initiated a different project than the one they discussed during the course, based on ideas coming from the discussions during or after the course. Here we describe the course, give three examples of topics discussed in Warsaw and present plans for the future.

Food systems need to produce enough of the essential trace element Se to provide regular adult intakes of at least 40 m g/d to support the maximal expression of the Se enzymes, and perhaps as much as 300 m g/d to reduce risks of cancer. Deprivation of Se is associated with impairments in antioxidant protection, redox regulation and energy production as consequences of suboptimal expression of one or more of the Secontaining enzymes. These impairments may not cause deficiency signs in the classical sense, but instead contribute to health problems caused by physiological and environmental oxidative stresses and infections. At the same time, supranutritional intakes of Se, i.e. intakes greater than those required for selenocysteine enzyme expression, appear to reduce cancer risk. The lower, nutritional, level is greater than the typical intakes of many people in several parts of the world, and few populations have intakes approaching the latter, supranutritional, level. Accordingly, low Se status is likely to contribute to morbidity and mortality due to infectious as well as chronic diseases, and increasing Se intakes in all parts of the world can be expected to reduce cancer rates.

Endemicity is not only a biological and health event but has several inter-dependencies cross-cutting with the management of the economy, including governance and policies. Within the context of the discourse on inequity, what does endemicity mean for poor and low-income families, where policies on social inclusion and social welfare need to be re-calibrated?

Although the enteroviruses as a group are ubiquitous and not normally considered as "emerging pathogens," the many different serotypes circulate at different frequencies in any given year and the prevalence of a given serotype may fluctuate wildly from year to year. As a result, several enterovirus serotypes have been associated with the emergence of specific diseases (for example, pandemic acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis) and specific serotypes have emerged to cause outbreaks of major public health concern. Enterovirus 71 is a recognized cause of epidemic severe central nervous system disease in Southeast Asia. Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis was a newly described disease in the 1970s associated with emergence of enterovirus 70 and coxsackievirus A24 variant. In addition, the impending eradication of poliovirus and some of the challenges currently faced by the eradication program present the possibility that poliomyelitis could emerge in the posteradication era. These links between enterovirus infections and emerging diseases are reviewed. Journal of NeuroVirology (2005) 11, 424-433.

Cardiac tumours are benign or malignant neoplasms arising primarily in the inner lining, muscle layer, or the surrounding pericardium of the heart. They can be primary or metastatic. Primary cardiac tumours are rare in paediatric practice with a prevalence of 0.0017 to 0.28 in autopsy series. In contrast, the incidence of cardiac tumours during foetal life has been reported to be approximately 0.14%. The vast majority of primary cardiac tumours in children are benign, whilst approximately 10% are malignant. Secondary malignant tumours are 10-20 times more prevalent than primary malignant tumours. Rhabdomyoma is the most common cardiac tumour during foetal life and childhood. It accounts for more than 60% of all primary cardiac tumours. The frequency and type of cardiac tumours in adults differ from those in children with 75% being benign and 25% being malignant. Myxomas are the most common primary tumours in adults constituting 40% of benign tumours. Sarcomas make up 75% of malignant cardiac masses. Echocardiography, Computing Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the heart are the main non-invasive diagnostic tools. Cardiac catheterisation is seldom necessary. Tumour biopsy with histological assessment remains the gold standard for confirmation of the diagnosis. Surgical resection of primary cardiac tumours should be considered to relieve symptoms and mechanical obstruction to blood flow. The outcome of surgical resection in symptomatic, non-myxomatous benign cardiac tumours is favourable. Patients with primary cardiac malignancies may benefit from palliative surgery but this approach should not be recommended for patients with metastatic cardiac tumours. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy may prolong survival. The prognosis for malignant primary cardiac tumours is generally extremely poor. Cardiac tumours are benign or malignant neoplasms arising primarily in the inner lining, muscle layer, or the surrounding pericardium of the heart. Cardiac tumours can be primary or metastatic. Primary cardiac tumours are rare in paediatric practice with a prevalence of 0.0017 to 0.28 in autopsy series. In contrast, the incidence of cardiac

Identification of variants in the acid α-glucosidase (GAA) gene in Pompe disease provides valuable insights and systematic overviews are needed. We report on the number, nature, frequency, and geographic distribution of GAA sequence variants listed in the Pompe Registry, a long-term, observational program and the largest global repository of Pompe disease data. Variant information was reviewed and compared with publicly available GAA databases/resources. Among 1,079 eligible patients, 2,075 GAA variants (80 unique novel) were reported. Variants were listed by groups representing Pompe disease phenotypes. Patients were classified as Group A: Symptom onset ≤ 12 months of age with cardiomyopathy; Group B: Symptom onset ≤ 12 years of age (includes patients with symptom onset ≤ 12 months of age without cardiomyopathy); or Group C: Symptom onset > 12 years of age. Likely impact of novel variants was predicted using bioinformatics algorithms. Variants were classified by pathogenicity using ACMG guidelines. Data reported from the Pompe Registry