Quantitative Methods for Risk analysis

Anormal Psikoloji kitabı, ruhsal bozukluklar alanında çalışan tüm profesyoneller, psikiyatristler, klinik psikologlar, psikologlar, psikolojik danışmanlar, hekimler, sosyal hizmet uzmanları, psikiyatri hemşireleri ve bu alanlarda öğrenci yetiştiren akademisyenler ile eğitim alan öğrenciler için temel bir başvuru kitabıdır.
2013 yılının Mayısı ayında yayımlanan DSM-5 ölçütlerine göre ruhsal bozukluklarla ilgili sunulan bilgilerin güncellemesinin de yapıldığı bu kitap, tüm dünyada pek çok üniversitenin psikiyatri ve psikoloji bölümlerinde ders kitabı olarak okutulmaktadır.
Kitabın her bölümünde, ilk olarak ruhsal bozukluklarla ilgili vakalar sunulmakta, daha sonra bozuklukların klinik tanıları yapılmakta ve DSM-IV-TR’den farklı olan DSM-5’te yapılan değişikliklere yer verilmektedir. Ayrıca, DSM-5’teki tanı ölçütleri, bozuklukların etiyolojisi ve epidemiyolojisi, bozukluklar üzerinde kalıtımın ve çevrenin etkileri, biyolojik ve sosyal ve kültürel etkiler, en güncel araştırmalardan elde edilen verilerle harmanlanarak sunulmaktadır. Ruhsal bozuklukların tedavisinde etkili olacak terapi yaklaşımları ve ilaçla yapılan tedaviler hakkında da bilgiler veren kitap, sahip olduğu zengin içeriği ile eşsiz bir kaynaktır.
Anormal Psikoloji kitabının; profesyoneller ve öğrenciler için önemli bir rehber olacağına, yardıma ihtiyaç duyan insanların sorunlarının çözümüne, ruhsal bozuklukların tanı ve tedavisinde önemli katkılar sağlayacağına inanıyoruz.

L’ambition de Solvabilité 2 est d’être risk based : l’exigence de capital est réputée être fondée sur une mesure de risque. En nous concentrant sur les risques de souscription non vie, à l’aide de tests de robustesse interne, nous montrons que cette mesure n’est pas fiable. Elle ne permet pas d’apprécier dans l’absolu le risque porté par une branche, le bruit parasitant la mesure étant d’une amplitude comparable en ordre de grandeur à l’amplitude du signal qu’on cherche à capter. Elle ne permet pas non plus, en relatif, d’apprécier la hiérarchie des risques entre branches. Ceci souligne le besoin d’une analyse aussi large que possible des marges d’erreur des mesures de risques portées par Solvabilité 2, et remet en cause la pertinence de ce système pour fonder des décisions de régulation prudentielle ainsi que les choix d’orientation stratégique ou de gestion des risques des organismes d’assurance.

The paper reports on both methodological and substantive findings. It presents a method for generating simplified representations for regional urban populations, their geographical sub-populations and communities. the method generates greatly simplified high-resolution socio-economic profiles of populated geographical areas from complex large census data sets.

Implementing and maintaining Business Information Security (BIS) is cumbersome. Frameworks and models are used to implement BIS, but these are perceived as complex and hard to maintain. Most companies still use spreadsheets to design, direct and monitor their information security improvement plans. Regulators too use spreadsheets for supervision. This paper reflects on ten years of Design Science Research (DSR) on BIS and describes the design and engineering of an artefact which can emancipate boards from silo-based spreadsheet management and improve their visibility, control and assurance via an integrated dash-boarding and reporting tool. Three cases are presented to illustrate the way the artefact, of which the realisation is called the Securimeter, works. The paper concludes with an in-depth comparison study acknowledging 91% of the core BIS requirements being present in the artefact.

In the last years, after medium and strong Italian earthquakes a new and virtuous procedure for assessment of seismic capacity of the strategic buildings has been started and carried out. For single building, the best choice to retrofit should be defined based on its specific features and seismic deficiencies. Different methods and alternative approaches exist to define the optimum retrofitting strategy. On contrary, retrofitting strategies on a wide territorial scale (for public and/or strategic buildings) should be based on multiple and diverse aspects. Prioritization of the mitigation strategies with strongly limited budget has become a fundamental topic especially with regard to the limited economic resources and their allocation on national, regional or sub-regional territories. This is a typical political and administrative problem and it is a fundamental topic for decision makers. This issue is certainly of greatest interest for strategic buildings, which must have high performance during and after seismic emergency. In past years, often decision-making and selection of different strategies, they were devoid of rational criteria. Due to both the huge amount of strategic buildings that require interventions and the limited economic availability, it is necessary as first step to define the priority of interventions on a wide territorial scale. In the present work, the definition of seismic risk management strategies in order to prioritize the retrofitting of the strategic buildings is investigated. The multi-criteria decision-making analysis has been considered and applied to a data set of strategic buildings in order to define different propriety ranking able to satisfy different purpose

Multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) are conventionally recommended in mental health
care literature as an important way to offer holistic treatment provision to patients. This
study aims to explore multidisciplinary teamwork in contemporary mental health
settings, particularly what aids and hinders the process of multidisciplinary teamworking,
and the social work contribution in such teams. In order to attain an in-depth
exploration of these phenomena, a single case study design was employed. Within this
design, data were generated through semi-structured interviews and structured
observation of a mental health MDT in Ireland. These data were analysed using
interpretative phenomenological analysis. The research highlights how the concept of
mental illness is contested within this MDT, with the medical model dominant within
an environment of fluid working arrangements. Professional role blurring and
stereotyping were found to impact the division of labour on this team, with role
negotiation found to be an integral part of retaining a professional’s practice identity.
This research raises concerns for social work’s capacity to function within mental
health MDTs in Ireland, and highlights ways in which social work educators might
respond in order to empower Irish social workers to meet the challenges of mental
health multidisciplinary teamworking.

O objetivo deste trabalho é demonstrar a utilização do Método de Monte Carlo na análise quantitativa de riscos de cronogramas. A grande diferenciação deste método em relação às técnicas determinísticas tradicionais, como o CPM (Critical Path Method), é que ele permite um tratamento probabilístico dos parâmetros do projeto para os quais existem incertezas associadas, como por exemplo as estimativas de duração ou custos das atividades. No caso, tais estimativas passam a ser representadas por distribuições estatísticas de probabilidades entre um valor mínimo e máximo possível. Como resultado, o cronograma final também passa a ser representado em termos probabilísticos, o que permite a análise de diversos cenários possíveis para o projeto, com diferentes chances de ocorrência. Como veremos, este tratamento quantitativo dos riscos leva a resultados mais realistas, fornecendo uma base mais sólida para a tomada de decisões.

The fragility of societies is regularly highlighted by natural disasters and industrial accidents, specificnfragility of technologically advanced societies. The consideration of the risk - whatever is its origin and its nature - is henceforth a major stake in the management of the territory. The central question approached by this report of the Crêt-Bérard workshop is that of the risk mastering in a context of territorial complexity. It is indeed the matter of examining the question under a new angle by wondering how to make of the vulnerability an asset. International initiatives at territorial local levels, have already been organized : the APELL program, a local process of information and coordination of the populations and the emergency services. PNUE programs as well as national and international bodies contribute to promoting and facilitating this process at the local level. Numerous European countries as well as several regional collectivities engaged in detailed and eminently pragmatic programs on the subject. In this context, the ICT committee of the SATW gathered a group of international experts representing varied disciplines and experiences at Crêt-Bérard, to jointly examine the most relevant methodological approaches available today to elaborate a territory project which completely integrates the industrial risk. The discussion addresses at once the framework of the knowledge society the tools of which offer until now unexplored possibilities. The recommendations of the expert group do not claim to propose a universal risk management model. The objective consisted rather in formulating criteria for the setting up of an information system allowing the ICT to integrate the technological risks, the populations and the territories which can contribute to a better anticipation and to a more effective risk management.
The statements and the recommendations stemming from the workshop can be notably of help to the training and to the transfer of know-how in this domain.
Six basic ideas underlie the recommendations :
• The consideration of the risk must be included in a more global concern i.e. the «project of territory managed by the ICT» ;
• The political will, the leadership, the determination to initiate the changes are prerequisites to put in motion the strengths necessary to the implementation of such an approach ;
• The technological partnership and the sharing of data are basic conditions to start such a project via the ICT and the territorial information systems.
• The vulnerability, both that of the territory and the populations, establishes(constitutes) a useful vital lead to identify the priorities in the management of the risk the multiple dimensions of which (environmental,economic, social, cultural) must be taken into account in the phase of anticipation, management of crisis and repair.
• The systemic vulnerability requires that the interactions between the urban environment, the companies and the public services be integrated into every simulation model ;
• The functional vulnerability drives the various actors involved in the management of the security of the environment, the territory, the population, the assistance and of the return to the normal postaccidental status to coordinate their actions.
While building up on the international and local initiatives of risk management, it is advisable to question them and, if necessary, to develop better solutions by facilitating the synergies between the actors of the information society. Indeed, the information, as contained, packaging and element of knowledge sharing, constitutes a strategic dimension of the good risk management. We invite all those involved in an initiative of riskmanagement to seriously consider the recommendations of this brochure to improve their practices.

Systèmes d'information pour la prévention et la gestion territoriale des risques industriels: vulnérabilité des territoires et des populations http://www.satw.ch http://www.akademien-schweiz.ch/ Commission ICT http://ict.satw.ch Die Verwundbarkeit von Gesellschaften wird jeweils durch Naturkatastrophen und bei Unfällen in Industrieanlagen deutlich, dies trifft insbesondere auf technisch hochentwickelte Gesellschaften zu. Die Risikoabschätzung – welchen Ursprungs auch immer – gehört daher zu den wesentlichen Herausforderungen einer Gebietsverwaltung. Die Kernfrage des Seminar-Berichts von Crêt-Bérard ist daher die Risiken-Beherrschung im Zusammenhang einer territorialen Komplexität. Dabei geht es darum, die Fragestellung unter einem neuen Gesichtspunkt zu behandeln, wie aus Verwundbarkeit ein Nutzen entstehen kann. Internationale Massnahmen im Hinblick auf Gebiete, Lokales gibt es bereits : Das Programm APELL beispielsweise, ein Verfahren der lokalen Information und Koordination der Bevölkerung und der Notfalldienste. Die Programme der PNUE wie auch die nationalen und internationalen Abteilungen fördern und erleichtern die Verfahren auf lokaler Ebene. Zahlreiche europäische Länder neben mehreren Vereinigungen vor Ort haben sich an diesen vertiefenden Arbeiten und pragmatischen Fragestellungen beteiligt. Unter diesen Vorzeichen hat die ICT-Kommission der SATW eine Gruppe von internationalen Experten aus verschiedenen Fachrichtungen und mit unterschiedlichen Erfahrungen nach Crêt-Bérard eingeladen, um gemeinsam zeitgemässe wie sachdienliche methodologische Richtlinien zu prüfen zur begleitenden Ausarbeitung eines Gebiets-Projekts, das umfassend ins industrielle Risiko-Management passt. Die Diskussion reiht sich nahtlos in den Rahmen einer Wissensgesellschaft ein, deren Apparatur bislang ungenutzte Möglichkeiten bietet.

Implementing and maintaining Business Information Security (BIS) is cumbersome. Frameworks and models are used to implement BIS, but these are perceived as complex and hard to maintain. Most companies still use spreadsheets to design, direct and monitor their information security improvement plans. Regulators too use spreadsheets for supervision. This paper reflects on ten years of Design Science Research (DSR) on BIS and describes the design and engineering of an artefact which can emancipate boards from silo-based spreadsheet management and improve their visibility, control and assurance via an integrated dash-boarding and reporting tool. Three cases are presented to illustrate the way the artefact, of which the realisation is called the Securimeter, works. The paper concludes with an in-depth comparison study acknowledging 91% of the core BIS requirements being present in the artefact.

This paper performs an overview of the essential components in crisis management and an empirical analysis of the crisis management preparedness of the pharmaceutical companies in Greece. It also presents a best practice model for the business leaders in the Greek pharmaceutical market to help them to assess their level of preparedness and create their own crisis management plans, through adapting the current study fi ndings. The results, obtained from an original questionnaire survey, confi rm that the pharmaceutical industry is especially vulnerable to crisis situations and that the Greek economic crisis had a severe adverse impact on that industry. Nonetheless, the survey fi ndings suggest that the pharmaceutical companies in Greece have a respectable level of crisis management adoption, although there is still room for improvements to address various types of future market risks.

This work proposes a way to use the existing maintenance methodologies based on the reliability and criticality analysis, applied to equipment of any industry, in order to analyze the reliability, prioritize the risk and define a maintenance plan according to the criticality assessment. resulting. The three phases of the methodology comprise a definition phase, another analysis phase and the last results phase, which involves a grouping of tasks that make up a risk-based maintenance plan. It is necessary to define in general and sequentially the process in which the asset or system under analysis intervenes, in order to identify the relationships of the operating environment, including a global description of how the assets will be used, where it is operated and defined performance criteria. A plant hierarchy must be obtained, the technical hierarchy analysis is a division according to the relative importance of each equipment. In this way, a semi-quantitative analysis was performed, obtaining a risk map of the equipment evaluated and classified by their risk.

Risk Analysis and Weighting Risk Analysis is a process which supports the identification and measurement of intervention or extension of gaps that can potentially undermine transparency within the public systems. The given recommendations and corrective steps have positive effect on the system however we need to know how much each step can affect the process, transparency, and accountability within a certain public process, sector or system.

Implementing and maintaining Business Information Security (BIS) is cumbersome. Frameworks and models are used to implement BIS, but these are perceived as complex and hard to maintain. Most companies still use spreadsheets to design, direct and monitor their information security improvement plans. Regulators too use spreadsheets for supervision. This paper reflects on ten years of Design Science Research (DSR) on BIS and describes the design and engineering of an artefact which can emancipate boards from silo-based spreadsheet management and improve their visibility, control and assurance via an integrated dash-boarding and reporting tool. Three cases are presented to illustrate the way the artefact, of which the realisation is called the Securimeter, works. The paper concludes with an in-depth comparison study acknowledging 91% of the core BIS requirements being present in the artefact.

Implementing and maintaining Business Information Security (BIS) is cumbersome. Frameworks and models are used to implement BIS, but these are perceived as complex and hard to maintain. Most companies still use spreadsheets to design, direct and monitor their information security improvement plans. Regulators too use spreadsheets for supervision. This paper reflects on ten years of Design Science Research (DSR) on BIS and describes the design and engineering of an artefact which can emancipate boards from silo-based spreadsheet management and improve their visibility, control and assurance via an integrated dash-boarding and reporting tool. Three cases are presented to illustrate the way the artefact, of which the realisation is called the Securimeter, works. The paper concludes with an in-depth comparison study acknowledging 91% of the core BIS requirements being present in the artefact.

Risk is defined as the probability of deviation in the expected result and actual result of any activity. If the outcome of any activity is known and if there is no deviation expected in expected and actual result of any activity, this is called as certainty. The simple understanding is that the actual result of the activity would be as per the expected result and there would be no deviation. Just opposite to it, there is the situation of uncertainty where the outcome is not at all known and in between these two situations, there is the situation of risk. In risk, there is probability attached to each known outcome of the activity. Risk is not the situation of unknowingness. Here, the outcomes of the activity are known and probabilities are attached to specific outcomes. Risk is also defined as the probability of loss due to happening of an event. The loss can be financial, physical, social etc. Risk is that in want of earning higher profit, there may be loss of money. The probabili...

A Knowledge-Based System for the risk analysis of proposed building projects was developed for a selected client. The Fuzzy Decision Variables (FDVs) that cause differences between initial and final contract sums of building projects were identified, the likelihood of the occurrence of the risks were determined and a Knowledge-Based System that would rank the risks was constructed using JAVA programming language and Graphic User Interface. The Knowledge-Based System is composed a Knowledge Base for storing data, an Inference Engine for controlling and directing the use of knowledge for problem-solution, and a User Interface that assists the user retrieve, use and alter data in the Knowledge Base. The developed Knowledge-Based System was compiled, implemented and validated with data of previously completed projects. The client could utilize the Knowledge-Based System to undertake proposed building projects

Participatory Action Research (PAR) Study is considered as the systematic process of addressing random problems head-on through the dissemination of usable knowledge and linking innovative ideas with practical application (Reason and Bradbury, 2008; Ivankova, 2015). Tekin and Kotaman (2013) conjectured that while demonstrating PAR it is most challenging to attain objective external facts, it is a trustworthy method for improving social applications, researchers and practitioners do not exist at converging poles, during the process participants are also equal partners and possess the right to be involved, and there exist no identifiable end point for the practice of PAR due to various socio-cultural problems continuing to vacillate and evolve.

The model of RISK ANALYZER was implemented as Knowledge-based System for the purpose of undertaking risk analysis for proposed construction projects in a selected domain. The Fuzzy Decision Variables (FDVs) that cause differences between initial and final contract sums of building projects were identified, the likelihood of the occurrence of the risks were determined and a Knowledge-Based System that would rank the risks was constructed using JAVA programming language and Graphic User Interface. The Knowledge-Based System is composed a Knowledge Base for storing data, an Inference Engine for controlling and directing the use of knowledge for problem-solution, and a User Interface that assists the user retrieve, use and alter data in the Knowledge Base. The developed Knowledge-Based System was compiled, implemented and validated with data of previously completed projects. The client could utilize the Knowledge-Based System to undertake proposed building projects

The aim of the project is to focus on automatic visualizations of industrial accidents causing environmental damages and potential risks to different kinds of surface water. It is one answer to the need for rapidly obtaining visualization patterns in order to enhance a prioritization for environmental damage on watercourse, lakes and underground water. To this end, an automatization based on general assumptions, is developed in order to obtain understandable cartographic visualizations that will help field prioritization and identification of hot spots. The proposed method is able to deliver quick results, build up in a local risk register in order to fulfil local needs and practices for preventing damages and accidents due to major hazards of chemical industries. Keywords. Risk management, Water pollution damage and risks, risk register Geneva Risk, contamination of surface and ground waters, geographic information system (GIS), land use management, emergency response and preparedness.

Australia signed a civilian nuclear deal with India on 6 September, paving the way for the export of uranium to energy-starved India within the next few years. This deal could significantly boost Australia’s production of uranium. But what are the implications of this development and what are the risks beyond the numbers? Risk is an inevitable byproduct of a modern and industrialised world, but the numbers alone tell only a part of the story. Increasingly, risk is about the loss of lives and livelihoods, families and friends, and justice and the equitable distribution of risks and benefits – risks that numbers are unable to measure, much less represent. This creates problems for companies in the nuclear and other resource industries where risks are highly emotive and politically charged. Local communities are often perceived as impediments to progress, when they really should be treated as a resource that can part of the solution rather than a problem.

Section One sets the context by discussing the nature of demand for and supply of information on the impact of microfinance. On the demand side, it makes a distinction between demand from within MFOs themselves for organisational development, and from donors and regulators for public policy purposes. On the supply side, it argues that there is a case for more use of rigorous qualitative methods that occupy an intermediate position between "positivist/quantitative" and "participatory/interpretive" approaches. The Imp-Act programme is presented as an appropriate network within which a protocol to popularise the use of such an approach might be developed. Section Two further clarifies the distinction between positivist/quantitative, participatory/interpretive and more rigorous qualitative methods. To illustrate the nature of the latter it presents brief case studies of how such tools have been used by the authors in Kenya, Zambia, Malawi and Peru. Section Three then...

Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present.

Purpose This paper aims to model different causal relations among factors interacting with labour productivity in order to recognize the most important factors influencing and influenced by it. Design/methodology/approach Top 60 factors affecting labour productivity were determined and grouped into 5 major groups by reviewing previous research and interviewing relevant experts. The interactions of factors were modelled using system dynamics (SD) approach. The resulting causal loop diagrams obtained from SD were then applied for identifying the most crucial factors influencing and influenced by labour productivity through the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The impact of factors on each other was finally determined based on the opinions of 63 experts selected from the Iranian construction industry. Findings The results indicated that factors such as fatigue, lack of labour motivation and lack of skill are the most influencing, and factors such as sch...

Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are “viable” and “safer.” To address that question, these programs use “alternatives analysis,” an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of lead-based bar solder and its non-lead based alternatives to examine the application of two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. It develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. MCDA methods offer a means for transparent, objective and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present. Integr Environ Assess Manag © 2013 SETACRegulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are “viable” and “safer.” To address that question, these programs use “alternatives analysis,” an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of lead-based bar solder and its non-lead based alternatives to examine the application of two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. It develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. MCDA methods offer a means for transparent, objective and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present. Integr Environ Assess Manag © 2013 SETAC