Weekend Effect

Aims: To determine if a score (PCA score derived from Principal Component Analysis), a validated score of frailty and mortality, based on 12 blood biochemistry parameters can shed light on the issue of patient acuity, end of life and weekend mortality in hospitals. Study Design: The PCA score was calculated from over 280,000 blood tests. Average PCA score was calculated for different patient groups on different days of the week. An accompanying literature review of day-of-week variation in human mental and physical performance, and of studies investigating hospital mortality. Place and Duration of Study: Retrospective analysis of 280,000 blood test results from 80,000 patients attending the Milton Keynes University Hospital in the interval January 2012 to July 2015.  Participants: Patients at outpatient clinics, the emergency department or as an inpatient who had one or more blood samples comprising the 12 biochemical tests. Methodology: Average PCA score was calculated for patients in different hospital departments, on different days of the week, in different age groups, and at different times prior to death. Results: The PCA score for individual’s ranges from -6 to +6, with scores above zero generally associated with higher morbidity and mortality. The average PCA score is lowest in outpatient and A+E settings, varies across wards dedicated to different types of inpatient care, and is highest in ICU. The average PCA score reaches a minimum around age 18, and shows a modest increase with age in those who are not an inpatient. There is a day-of-week variance in the PCA score which is higher at the weekends, and dips to a minimum around Wednesday. The strength of the day-of-week effect varies by age and condition, and occurs in locations where staffing levels remain constant throughout the week.  Conclusions: Variation in human blood biochemistry follows day-of-week patterns and responds to different conditions, age, and the acuity of the condition. These add further weight to the argument that weekend staffing levels, and proposed 7 day working patterns, do not take account of all the factors that contribute to a day-of-week variation in hospital mortality and morbidity.

This paper provides some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect, one of the most recognized anomalies in financial markets. Two different methods are used: (i) a fractional integration technique for the estimation of the degree of integration of the series (d); (ii) a trading robot approach to examine whether or not there is such an anomaly giving rise to exploitable profit opportunities by replicating the actions of traders. The lowest orders of integration are generally found on Mondays, which can be seen as evidence for a weekend effect. However, the trading robot analysis shows that this anomaly cannot be exploited to make abnormal profits, and therefore it is not inconsistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).