Mortality Analysis

Para uma correta leitura desse texto é importante ter clareza sobre o que está se falando e sobre o contexto no qual a fala está situada. Sobre o que está se falando? A violência é um dos fenômenos sociais mais complexos que existem e um dos mais importantes. E devido a essa complexidade e a essa importância, a análise do assunto é frequentemente vinculada a pressupostos pessoais, coletivos, intelectuais e científicos (muitas vezes colocados como verdades inquestionáveis) assim como a interesses políticos e econômicos (o que diminui a imparcialidade necessária para a observação e a conclusão sobre os dados observados). Assim sendo, para uma correta leitura desse texto, é importante ter clareza do que está se falando e sobre o contexto no qual a fala está situada.

Scheiber, Laura L. (2008)  Life and Death on the Northwestern Plains: Mortuary Practices and Cultural Transformations.  In Skeletal Biology and Bioarchaeology of the Northwestern Plains, edited by George W. Gill and Rick L. Weathermon, pp. 22-41.  University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City.

Se analiza la "mortalidad por causas" con relación a la "mortalidad reducible o evitable" en el país y en la provincia de Córdoba estimando que se podrían disminuir el número de muertes ocasionadas por la enfermedad de Chagas en las áreas más desfavorecidas socioeconómicamente.
En efecto, al estudiar la mortalidad proporcional por enfermedades infecciosas y parasitarias se observa que si bien el porcentaje de muertes debido a este grupo de causas es reducido en el total de la Provincia de Córdoba (2.5 % en el total provincial) aún persisten profundos desequilibrios interzonales, y la provincia se ubica en el cuarto lugar Nacional por ésta causa de muerte. Los departamentos del Norte y Oeste cordobés, registran entre un 7% y un 4 % respectivamente de su mortalidad debido a este grupo de causas y aún en 1991 la capital cordobesa presenta un 3% de sus muertes ocasionada por patologías infecciosas y parasitarias.
En cuanto a la mortalidad según criterios de evitabilidad, el 21,6 % de la mortalidad tanto en hombre como mujeres se podría reducir mediante la adopción de "mejoras en las condiciones de saneamiento ambiental" o por la aplicación de un conjunto de medidas sanitarias.

Starting in the 1970s, many populations of large-bodied mammalian carnivores began to recover from centuries of human-caused eradication and habitat destruction. The recovery of several such populations has since slowed or reversed due to mortality caused by humans. Illegal killing (poaching) is a primary cause of death in many carnivore populations. Law enforcement agencies face difficulties in preventing poaching and scientists face challenges in measuring it. Both challenges are exacerbated when evidence is concealed or ignored. We present data on deaths of 937 Wisconsin gray wolves (Canis lupus) from October 1979 to April 2012 during a period in which wolves were recolonizing historic range mainly under federal government protection. We found and partially remedied sampling and measurement biases in the source data by reexamining necropsy reports and reconstructing the numbers and causes of some wolf deaths that were never reported. From 431 deaths and disappearances of radiocollared wolves aged > 7.5 months, we estimated human causes accounted for two-thirds of reported and reconstructed deaths, including poaching in 39–45%, vehicle collisions in 13%, legal killing by state agents in 6%, and nonhuman causes in 36–42%. Our estimate of poaching remained an underestimate because of persistent sources of uncertainty and systematic underreporting. Unreported deaths accounted for over two-thirds of all mortality annually among wolves > 7.5 months old. One-half of all poached wolves went unreported, or > 80% of poached wolves not being monitored by radiotelemetry went unreported. The annual mortality rate averaged 18% ± 10% for monitored wolves but 47% ± 19% for unmonitored wolves. That difference appeared to be due largely to radiocollaring being concentrated in the core areas of wolf range, as well as higher rates of human-caused mortality in the periphery of wolf range. We detected an average 4% decline in wolf population growth in the last 5 years of the study. Because our estimates of poaching risk and overall mortality rate exceeded official estimates after 2012, we present all data for transparency and replication. More recent additions of public hunting quotas after 2012 appear unsustainable without effective curtailment of poaching. Effective antipoaching enforcement will require more accurate estimates of poaching rate, location, and timing than currently available. Independent scientific review of methods and data will improve antipoaching policies for large carnivore conservation, especially for controversial species facing high levels of human-induced mortality.

This chapter explores the finite marker of human existence, such as the death rate, which is used to measure wellbeing and living standards of population groups. It addresses the resistance to this acculturation by various Muslim communities within the state. The chapter studies the interplay of social processes, such as Muslim group identity, population mortality and Russian nation-building. The deployment of the acculturation form of disciplinary power homogenises minority populations within the state where the elements of the spiritual sphere, such as ethnically or racially distinct culture and life-style challenge Russian state nationalism. Russian nation-building through bureaucratic mode of acculturation of various ethnic minority populations clarifies the complex negotiation between the Russian centralised initiatives and growing ethnic national ambitions. However, the Muslim ethno-religious mortality advantage revealed a different demographic profile than during the times of tsarist Russia. The establishment of effective public health policies improved infant mortality crisis among the Russians, but the reforms did not equally target the Muslim populations.

The ageing process ongoing in the Member States of the European Union (EU) brings new challenges to their societies. To assess the implications of the demographic changes (e.g., for the assessment of the long-term sustainability of the public finances), population projections are regularly produced by the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT). The last round was based on the population on 1 January 2008 and covers the period 2008-2061 for each Member State of the EU plus Norway and Switzerland. The assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration have been developed under the hypothesis that the socio-economic differences between Member States of the EU will fade out in the long run (Convergence scenario). The results show the different speeds of ageing of the EU countries and the possible depopulation for some of them.

Measuring rates and causes of mortalities is important in animal ecology and management. Observing the fates of known individuals is a common method of estimating life history variables, including mortality patterns. It has long been assumed that data lost when known animals disappear were unbiased. We test and reject this assumption under conditions common to most, if not all, studies using marked animals. We illustrate the bias for 4 endangered wolf populations in the United States by reanalyzing data and assumptions about the known and unknown fates of marked wolves to calculate the degree to which risks of different causes of death were mismeasured. We find that, when using traditional methods, the relative risk of mortality from legal killing measured as a proportion of all known fates was overestimated by 0.05–0.16 and the relative risk of poaching was underestimated by 0.17–0.44. We show that published government estimates are affected by these biases and, importantly, are un...

Social relationships benefit not only mental health but also physical health. This review addresses the following questions: (1) What is the overall magnitude of the effect of social relationships on risk for premature death? (2) How generalized is the effect and are there factors known to influence this association? (3) What are the likely pathways by which social relationships influence lon-gevity? The article concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for potential interventions aimed at reducing risk for mortality.

Tanulmányunk az európai makrorégió regionális egészségegyenlőtlenségeit veszi górcső alá, különös figyelmet fordítva a kelet-közép-európai halandósági folyamatokra. Kutatásunk során egyrészt a vizsgált térség területi megosztottságára, a főbb törésvonalak
beazonosítására, valamint az egyenlőtlenségeket befolyásoló halandósági tényezőkre, másrészt az egészségi állapot regionális különbségei mögött meghúzódó társadalmi-gazdasági jelenségek kimutatására vállalkozunk.
Eredményeink alapján az európai makrorégió hagyományos kelet–nyugat irányú megosztottságán túl további „mikrorepedések” is felfedezhetők a különböző egészségi állapotot leíró mutatók mentén. A
korábban többé-kevésbé egyöntetűen hátrányos helyzetű kelet-közép-európai térség ma már korántsem tekinthető egységesnek. Az egészségi állapot szerinti regionális megosztottság mozgatórugói továbbra is a nem fertőző krónikus megbetegedések, ezek közül egyértelműen első helyen állnak a keringési megbetegedések. Eredményeink szerint a halandósági lejtővel párhuzamosan a gazdasági teljesítmény grádiense is megfigyelhető.

This study presents an assessment of the potential contribution of migrants and their descendants to the population change of the EU Member States in the coming decades. For the first time, a comparative view is given across countries of the projected demographic contribution of the migrants according to different concepts of foreign background.

Actual and perceived social isolation have both been associated with increased risk for mortality.  The objective of this meta-analytic review is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and examine possible moderators.  Data sources were established via a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar.  Studies were included that provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone.  Across studies that statistically controlled for a variety of possible confounds, the independent random effects weighted average effect sizes for social isolation OR=1.29, loneliness OR=1.26 and living alone OR=1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26% and 32% increased likelihood of mortality respectively.  No differences were found between measures of objective and subjective social isolation.  Results remained consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status influenced the findings.  Results also differed across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years.  Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality.

The article aims at describing in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty), as well as ii) impact of frailty on the baseline hazard. Mortality plateaus result from multiplicative (proportional) and additive hazards, but not from accelerated failure time models. Frailty can have any distribution with regularly-varying-at- 0 density and the distribution of frailty among survivors to each subsequent age converges to a gamma. In a multiplicative setting the baseline cumulative hazard can be represented as the inverse of the negative logarithm of any completely monotone function. If the plateau is reached, the only meaningful solution at the plateau is provided by the gamma-Gompertz model.

The ecosystems of Valle del Cauca have been transformed to a landscape with few and small fragments of forest. This study measured the mortality and recruitment rates, changes in structure, composition, and biomass storage of the vegetation in a one-hectare permanent plot in the El VA­nculo Regional Natural Park, Valle del Cauca, in 2009 and 2011. One thousand, seven hundred sixty-eight stems with DAP ≥ 5 cm were registered, which increased to 1811 stems in 2011, comprising 52 species and 25 families. Fabaceae and Rutaceae were the dominant families. The species with highest IVI, basal area, and biomass contribution were Eugenia procera , Amyris pinnata , Pithecellobium lanceolatum , Guapira sp. and Guazuma ulmifolia . The annual mortality rate (Tm= 4,84%) was due to stem death of heliophilous species. The annual recruitment rate (Tr= 6,94%) showed the success in dispersal and establishment of animal-dispersed species. The tendency of the vegetation was to increase basal area and ...

Aims: The mortality rate in patients with STEMI is higher in women than in men. This higher mortality rate is partly accounted for by certain known characteristics inherent in the female population (age, diabetes). Using data from the e-MUST registry on STEMI patients in the Greater Paris area, we assessed the differences between men and women treated with reperfusion strategies. Methods and results: Patients presenting within 24 hours of pain onset between 2006 and 2010 were included in the study. The male and female subpopulations were compared according to their baseline characteristics , their management delays and their early outcomes. Five thousand eight hundred and forty males (78.9%) and 1,557 females (21.1%) were included in the study. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in women than in men, 143 (9.4%) vs. 254 (4.4%), p<0.0001, with a longer time to treatment initiation , symptoms to call (2.7±3.6 vs. 2.2±3.4 hours, p<0.0001), symptoms to first medical contact (FMC) (3.1±3.7 vs. 2.6±3.4 hours, p<0.0001), and call to FMC (25.6±23.5 vs. 23.6±18.3 min, p=0.02). After adjustment for clinical factors, severity criteria, myocardial infarction (MI) location and delays, mortality remained higher in women than in men with an odds ratio of 1.40 [1.06-1.84], p=0.017. Conclusions: We demonstrated longer pre-hospital delays and higher in-hospital mortality in women. The increase in the time to treatment alone does not completely explain the persistent increase in mortality. Further studies, public awareness programmes and physician education are necessary to reduce delays and improve the prognosis of STEMI in women.

Troubled historical events from the 1990s considerably influenced the latest demographic trends in Serbia (excluding Kosovo). In the domain of mortality, these trends were reflected through the manifestation of many unfavorable changes. Such mortality changes in Serbia were relatively short-lived and considerably less pronounced than in most countries in transition, especially in comparison to some former Soviet republics. Taking into consideration the scale and duration of the general social crisis in Serbia, we could evaluate these aggravations as moderate. On the other hand, improvements of mortality trends that arose during the 1990s were considerably less pronounced than in other European countries, especially in comparison to improvements that were realized in some other countries in the second half of the 1990s.

Measuring rates and causes of mortalities is important in animal ecology and management. Observing the fates of known individuals is a common method of estimating life history variables, including mortality patterns. It has long been assumed that data lost when known animals disappear were unbiased. We test and reject this assumption under conditions common to most, if not all, studies using marked animals. We illustrate the bias for 4 endangered wolf populations in the United States by reanalyzing data and assumptions about the known and unknown fates of marked wolves to calculate the degree to which risks of different causes of death were mismeasured. We find that, when using traditional methods, the relative risk of mortality from legal killing measured as a proportion of all known fates was overestimated by 0.05–0.16 and the relative risk of poaching was underestimated by 0.17–0.44. We show that published government estimates are affected by these biases and, importantly, are underestimating the risk of poaching. The underestimates have obscured the magnitude of poaching as the major threat to endangered wolf populations. We offer methods to correct estimates of mortality risk for marked animals of any taxon and describe the conditions under which traditional methods produce more or less bias. We also show how correcting past and future estimates of mortality parameters can address uncertainty about wildlife populations and increase the predictability and sustainability of wildlife management interventions.

Para uma correta leitura desse texto é importante ter clareza sobre o que está se falando e sobre o contexto no qual a fala está situada. Sobre o que está se falando? A violência é um dos fenômenos sociais mais complexos que existem e um dos mais importantes. E devido a essa complexidade e a essa importância, a análise do assunto é frequentemente vinculada a pressupostos pessoais, coletivos, intelectuais e científicos (muitas vezes colocados como verdades inquestionáveis) assim como a interesses políticos e econômicos (o que diminui a imparcialidade necessária para a observação e a conclusão sobre os dados observados). Assim sendo, para uma correta leitura desse texto, é importante ter clareza do que está se falando e sobre o contexto no qual a fala está situada.

Background: Urban–rural disparities in suicide mortality have received considerable attention. Varying conceptual‑ izations of urbanity may contribute to the conflicting findings. This ecological study on Germany assessed how and to what extent urban–rural suicide associations are affected by 14 different urban–rural indicators. Methods: Indicators were based on continuous or k‑means classified population data, land‑use data, planning typologies, or represented population‑based accessibility indicators. Agreements between indicators were tested with correlation analyses. Spatial Bayesian Poisson regressions were estimated to examine urban–rural suicide associa‑ tions while adjusting for risk and protective factors. Results: Urban–rural differences in suicide rates per 100,000 persons were found irrespective of the indicator. Strong and significant correlation was observed between different urban–rural indicators. Although the effect sign consist‑ ently referred to a reduced risk in urban areas, statistical significance was not universally confirmed by all regressions. Goodness‑of‑fit statistics suggested that the population potential score performs best, and that population density is the second best indicator of urbanicity. Numerical indicators are favored over classified ones. Regional planning typologies are not supported. Conclusions: The strength of suicide urban–rural associations varies with respect to the applied indicator of urbanicity. Future studies that put urban–rural inequalities central are recommended to apply either unclassified population potentials or population density indicators, but sensitivity analyses are advised.

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA 2001), rapid increase in population as has been witnessed in Nairobi since independence, has led to unprecedented sprawl of informal settlements; outstripped the city’s delivery of social services i.e. education, healthcare, water supply and sanitation; increased the motorization rate (both personal and public service vehicles) and attendant air pollution; and increased poverty levels within the city.

Life in the slums differs greatly to that in the developed urbanized estates where the high and middle income earners dwell. In the slums life is different and palatable only to the low income earning society.

Therefore, this paper on mortality trends and variations will look at the change of deaths of the population per 1000 per year in relation to the general movement and instance of change.

Mortality trends and variations in Kenya’s capital are drawn from a wider angle as there are both the developed urbanized zones and the lowly developed slum areas, the zones of the urban poor. With this differential zonal locality, mortality trends and variations are influenced by a range of factors that are varied in space and time. The recent census carried out has indicated that the urban poor population is growing at a faster rate than those in the developed urbanized zones.

Background and Objectives: Little is known about outcomes after transfer out (TFO) and loss to follow-up (LTF) and how differential outcomes might bias mortality estimates, as analyses generally censor or exclude TFOs/LTF. Using data linked to the National Population Register, we explored mortality among TFO and LTF patients compared with patients who were retained and investigated how linkage impacted on mortality estimates. Methods: A cohort analysis of routine data on adults with civil identification numbers starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) 2004– 2009 in 4 large South African ART cohorts. The number, proportion, timing, and mortality of TFOs and LTF were reported. Mortality was compared using Kaplan–Meier curves, Cox's proportional hazards, and competing risks regression. Results: Before linkage, 1207 patients (6%) had died, 2624 (13%) were LTF, 1067 (5%) were TFO and 14,583 (75%) were retained. Compared with retained, mortality risk was 3 times higher among TFO patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42 to 3.99] and 20 times higher among LTF patients (aHR, 22.03; 95% CI: 20.05 to 24.21). Excluding early deaths after TFO or LTF, the risk was comparable among TFOs and retained (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI: 0.54 to 1.03) and higher among LTF (aHR, 2.85; 95% CI: 2.43 to 3.33). After linkage, corrected mortality was higher than site-reported mortality. Censoring did not, however, lead to substantial underestimation of mortality among TFOs. Conclusions: Although TFO and LTF predicted mortality, the lower incidence of TFO and subsequent death compared with LTF meant that censoring TFOs did not bias mortality estimates. Future cohort analyses should explicitly consider proportions of TFO/LTF and mortality event rates.

Large differences in mortality rates across those with different levels of education are a well-established fact. This association between mortality and education may partly be explained by
confounding factors, including intelligence. Intelligence may also be affected by education so that it becomes a mediating factor in the causal chain. In this paper we estimate the impact of education on mortality using inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator, using either intelligence as a selection variable or as a mediating variable. We develop an IPW estimator to analyse the mediating effect in the context of survival models. Our estimates are based on administrative data, on men
born in 1944-1947 who were examined for military service in the Netherlands between 1961-1965, linked to national death records. For these men we distinguish four education levels and we make pairwise comparisons. From the empirical analyses we conclude that the mortality differences observed by education are only attributable to education effects for high educated individuals. For low educated individuals the observed mortality gain is mainly attributable to differences in intelligence.

Aims: To determine if a score (PCA score derived from Principal Component Analysis), a validated score of frailty and mortality, based on 12 blood biochemistry parameters can shed light on the issue of patient acuity, end of life and weekend mortality in hospitals. Study Design: The PCA score was calculated from over 280,000 blood tests. Average PCA score was calculated for different patient groups on different days of the week. An accompanying literature review of day-of-week variation in human mental and physical performance, and of studies investigating hospital mortality. Place and Duration of Study: Retrospective analysis of 280,000 blood test results from 80,000 patients attending the Milton Keynes University Hospital in the interval January 2012 to July 2015.  Participants: Patients at outpatient clinics, the emergency department or as an inpatient who had one or more blood samples comprising the 12 biochemical tests. Methodology: Average PCA score was calculated for patients in different hospital departments, on different days of the week, in different age groups, and at different times prior to death. Results: The PCA score for individual’s ranges from -6 to +6, with scores above zero generally associated with higher morbidity and mortality. The average PCA score is lowest in outpatient and A+E settings, varies across wards dedicated to different types of inpatient care, and is highest in ICU. The average PCA score reaches a minimum around age 18, and shows a modest increase with age in those who are not an inpatient. There is a day-of-week variance in the PCA score which is higher at the weekends, and dips to a minimum around Wednesday. The strength of the day-of-week effect varies by age and condition, and occurs in locations where staffing levels remain constant throughout the week.  Conclusions: Variation in human blood biochemistry follows day-of-week patterns and responds to different conditions, age, and the acuity of the condition. These add further weight to the argument that weekend staffing levels, and proposed 7 day working patterns, do not take account of all the factors that contribute to a day-of-week variation in hospital mortality and morbidity.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the current population structure and dynamic in some Balkan countries, population projections remain a useful tool for analysing the impact of alternative demographic developments and related planning and/or policy measures. Starting from the data available in the Eurostat database, population projections are developed for the Balkan countries covering the time horizon until 2061 and taking into account possible future integration into the European Union. Comparative analyses are made with countries of the region already belonging to the European Union.

On the eve of the Second World War, the USSR was lagging far behind the rest of the developed world with regard to life expectancy: 16 years behind France, for instance. This gap was virtually filled in during the period 1946-60, but the progress marked time in the early 1960s and then gave way to a slow erosion. The mortality decline resumed during the 1980s, with a sharp acceleration in 1985. In the space of three years, male life expectancy increased by three years, as though for each year that had been lived the slate was wiped clean and the number left to live was unaltered. In 1991, however, there was a spectacular new turnaround: again in the space of three years, not only was all the previous gain lost, but men's life expectancy was cut back by six years. The end of the restrictions on alcohol sales, and the economic disorganisation brought about by the change of political regime, have been blamed for this sharp regression. In the present study, A. Avdeev, A. Blum, S. Zakharov and E. Andreev suggest another possibility, namely that it is largely, or at least in part, the result of a return from the exceptionally favourable period 1985-90 - when the population most at risk of dying from a number of causes was temporarily spared - to the evolution observed in previous decades. The reversal in 1991-95 was impressive, and the mortality trends continue to be unfavourable today. The present article proposes another methodological approach and a somewhat different interpretation of Russian mortality from the studies published in Population in recent years, in particular issues 1989-6, 1994-2, 1995-4/5 and 1996-3 (Population: An English Selection, 7-1995, 8-1996 and 9-1997).

Large differences in mortality rates across those with different levels of education are a well-established fact. This association between mortality and education may partly be explained by confounding factors, including intelligence. Intelligence may also be affected by education so that it becomes a mediating factor in the causal chain. In this paper we estimate the impact of education on mortality using inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator, using either intelligence as a selection variable or as a mediating variable. We develop an IPW estimator to analyse the mediating effect in the context of survival models. Our estimates are based on administrative data, on men born in 1944-1947 who were examined for military service in the Netherlands between 1961-1965, linked to national death records. For these men we distinguish four education levels and we make pairwise comparisons. From the empirical analyses we conclude that the mortality differences observed by education are on...

The paper discusses the mortality of the population aged 60 years and over, distinguishing the age groups that make up the notion of old
age.  The investigation is based on an aggregative analysis of death certificates of parish and civil registries of the partido of Tandil —a
case study that can be considered as representative of the southern region of the province of Buenos Aires— between 1858 and 1914, period during wich the mortality trasnsition began in Argentina. The paper, which includes the traditional dimensions of age and sex, focuses on three aspects of elderly mortality: a) the seasonality of deaths, emphasising on the differential between rural and urban areas, migration origin and marital status; b) the causes of death and c) the use of hospitals.