Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers

(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

SPEE Recommended Evaluation Practice #6 Definition

of Decline Curve Parameters
Background:
The production histories of oil and gas wells can be analyzed to estimate
reserves and future oil and gas production rates and to validate results of
complex reservoir studies. Because accurate production data are commonly
available on most wells, production data analyses can be widely applied.
Decline curve analysis relates past performance of oil and gas wells to future
performance, but it requires modification to account for changes in performance
due to operating conditions or changes in reservoir behavior.
Decline curves are simply a plot of production rate versus time on semi-log, loglog, or specially scaled paper. The most common plot is semi-log. When the
logarithm of producing rate is plotted versus linear time, a straight line often
results. This phenomenon is referred to as exponential decline or constant
percent decline. If the data plot as a concave upwards curve, a harmonic or
hyperbolic decline model can be used to model the data.
The mathematical equation defining exponential decline has two constants, the
initial production rate and the decline rate. The decline rate is the rate of
change of production with respect to time and, for exponential decline, is
constant for all time. There are two ways to define the decline rate for
exponential decline nominal and effective.
The mathematical equation defining hyperbolic decline has three constants, the
initial production rate, the initial decline rate (defined at the same time as the
initial production rate), and the hyperbolic exponent. The decline rate is not a
constant, but changes with time, since the data plot as a curve on semi-log
paper. The hyperbolic exponent is the rate of change of the decline rate with
respect to time, or the second derivative of production rate with respect to time.
There are three ways to define the initial decline rate for hyperbolic decline
nominal, tangent effective, and secant effective. Figure 1 illustrates the
difference between the tangent effective and secant effective definitions of initial
decline rate.
Computer programs usually use the nominal form of the equations internally
while input and output are usually in terms of effective decline. The decline curve
equations in terms of nominal decline and the equations used to convert from
one form of decline to another are as shown below.
Copyright by Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers 2000 Reproduction with Attribution Granted
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Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

Decline Curve Equations (for consistent units)

Nominal
Effective:

Exponential decline
q
ln i
q
D=
t
(q - q)
De = i
for a particular time period, usually 1 year
qi
Effective decline as a function of nominal decline is:
D e = 1 - e -D
Nominal decline as a function of effective decline is:
D = - ln (1 - D e )
Hyperbolic decline
b

qi

1
q

Nominal
Di =
bt
(q - q)
Tangent Effective D ei = i
where qi and q are read from the tangent line
qi
(q - q)
where qi and q are read from the secant line
Secant Effective
D esi = i
qi
Nominal decline as a function of tangent effective decline is:
D i = - ln (1 - D ei )
Nominal decline as a function of secant effective decline is:
(1 - D esi )b 1
Di =
, b0
b
Where:

D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/time

Di = initial nominal decline rate (t=0), 1/time
Dei = initial effective decline rate from tangent line, 1/time
Desi = initial effective decline rate from secant line, 1/time

Copyright by Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers 2000 Reproduction with Attribution Granted
www.spee.org

Page 2 of 7
Version 1.0 adopted Spring 2002

Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

qi = instantaneous producing rate at time 0, vol/unit time

q = instantaneous producing rate at time t, vol/unit time
t = time
e = base of natural logarithms (2.718)
b = hyperbolic exponent (Describes how the initial decline
rate, Di, changes with time; varies from 0 to 1 usually.
When b = 1, the decline is called harmonic. This
exponent is sometimes referred to in the literature as
n)

Discussion:
There are varying opinions over whether the effective or nominal decline
equation should be used. Nominal decline rate can take on any value from
negative infinity to positive infinity where negative numbers indicate production
rate is increasing rather than decreasing. Effective decline rate cannot exceed
1.0 since an ending flow rate of zero results in an effective decline rate of qi/qi or
1. This limitation on effective decline rate can lead to problems with wells that
are experiencing extremely high initial declines such as massive hydraulic fracs
in tight gas reservoirs or horizontal wells. It is not unusual to see initial nominal
decline rates on the order of 30 (3000%) in these cases. The tangent effective
decline rate corresponding to a nominal decline rate of 30 is 0.999999999999906
(thirteen 9s followed by 06.) Since double precision numbers in computers are
limited to approximately 15 decimal digits of accuracy, it is impossible to
represent any exponential decline rate significantly in excess of 30 using tangent
effective decline. Some computer programs only allow 8 or fewer digits for
decline rate. At 8 digits the maximum nominal decline rate that can be
represented is approximately 20 (2000%.)
Normally, extremely high initial decline rates are associated with hyperbolic
decline curves, often with initial values of b at or near 2. When b is 1 or
greater it is possible to use the secant effective decline even at extremely high
decline rates. If b is 2 and the initial nominal decline is 100 (10000%) the value
of the initial secant effective decline rate is 92.946544%. This number is easily
represented even in single precision. Table 1 and Figure 2 show the value of
tangent effective decline (which is independent of b) and secant effective
decline for various values of b.
Copyright by Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers 2000 Reproduction with Attribution Granted
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Page 3 of 7
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Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

The secant effective decline rate has the additional advantage of being
calculated from two rates read from the smooth line through the data one rate
at time 0 (which can be arbitrarily defined) and one rate exactly one year later.
Another factor which must be recognized is that the production rate referred to in
the above equations is the instantaneous rate at a particular point in time. It is
not the average rate for a month or the average rate for a year. In cases where
the initial decline rate is high the rate at the beginning of a month may be
considerably larger than the average rate during the month.
Any of these methods of defining the future production curve will lead to the
correct answer if they are properly applied. The most important thing is clear and
consistent communication between the user and the computer programmer.
SPEE Recommended Evaluation Practice:
SPEE recommends that the terminology shown above be used. Further, SPEE
recommends that all input and output be clearly labeled using the following
names and symbols.
Item
Nominal Decline Rate, exponential
Initial Nominal Decline Rate,
hyperbolic
Effective Decline Rate, exponential
Initial Tangent Effective Decline Rate,
hyperbolic
Initial Secant Effective Decline Rate,
hyperbolic

Symbo
l
D
Di
De
Dei
Desi

References:
Arps, J.J., (1956). Estimation of Primary Oil Reserves. Dallas: Society of
Petroleum Engineers.
Fetkovich, M.J. (1980): Decline Curve Analysis using Type Curves, J. Pet.
Tech., (June 1980) 1065-1077.

Copyright by Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers 2000 Reproduction with Attribution Granted
www.spee.org

Page 4 of 7
Version 1.0 adopted Spring 2002

Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

Figure1 Decline Rate Definitions for Hyperbolic Decline

Definition of Decline Rate
100

Production Rate, BOPD

Secant

"Actual" Data

Tangent
10
0

1
Time, years

Copyright by Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers 2000 Reproduction with Attribution Granted
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Version 1.0 adopted Spring 2002

Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

Figure 2 Effective Decline Rate as a function of Nominal Decline Rate

100%
90%

Effective Decline Rate, 1/time

80%
70%
Tangent
Secant, b=0
Secant, b=.5
Secant, b=1
Secant, b=1.5
Secant, b=2

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1%

10%

100%

1000%

10000%

Nominal Decline Rate, 1/time

Copyright by Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers 2000 Reproduction with Attribution Granted
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Page 6 of 7
Version 1.0 adopted Spring 2002

Recommended Evaluation Practices (REPs) represent the society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers
(SPEE) suggested treatment of hypothetical reserve evaluation topics. SPEE recognizes that, due to the
varied nature of actual reserve evaluation situations likely to be encountered, these REPs are presented
merely as suggested approaches. The REPs are not standards or guidelines. The use of or adherence to
this SPEE REP is not required in any situation. The REPs should not be considered a substitute for the
evaluators professional judgment. This REP is subject to future revision(s) by the SPEE.

Table 1 - Effective Decline Rate as a function of Nominal Decline Rate

Nominal
Decline
Rate,
1/year

Effective Secant Decline Rate, 1/year

Effective Tangent
Decline Rate,
1/year

1% 0.99501662508319%
2% 1.98013266932447%
3% 2.95544664514918%
4% 3.92105608476768%
5% 4.87705754992860%
6% 5.82354664157513%
7% 6.76061800940517%
8% 7.68836536133642%
9% 8.60688147287718%
10% 9.51625819640405%
20% 18.12692469220180%
30% 25.91817793182820%
40% 32.96799539643610%
50% 39.34693402873670%
60% 45.11883639059740%
70% 50.34146962085910%
80% 55.06710358827780%
90% 59.34303402594010%
100% 63.21205588285580%
200% 86.46647167633870%
300% 95.02129316321360%
400% 98.16843611112660%
500% 99.32620530009150%
600% 99.75212478233340%
700% 99.90881180344460%
800% 99.96645373720970%
900% 99.98765901959130%
1000% 99.99546000702380%
2000% 99.99999979388460%
3000% 99.99999999999060%
4000% 100.00000000000000%
5000% 100.00000000000000%
6000% 100.00000000000000%
7000% 100.00000000000000%
8000% 100.00000000000000%
9000% 100.00000000000000%
10000% 100.00000000000000%

Value of "b"
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0.995017% 0.992550% 0.990099% 0.987664% 0.985246%
1.980133% 1.970395% 1.960784% 1.951298% 1.941932%
2.955447% 2.933825% 2.912621% 2.891822% 2.871414%
3.921056% 3.883122% 3.846154% 3.810111% 3.774955%
4.877058% 4.818560% 4.761905% 4.706995% 4.653741%
5.823547% 5.740409% 5.660377% 5.583260% 5.508882%
6.760618% 6.648930% 6.542056% 6.439655% 6.341419%
7.688365% 7.544379% 7.407407% 7.276891% 7.152331%
8.606881% 8.427005% 8.256881% 8.095645% 7.942538%
9.516258% 9.297052% 9.090909% 8.896561% 8.712907%
18.126925% 17.355372% 16.666667% 16.046701% 15.484575%
25.918178% 24.385633% 23.076923% 21.941297% 20.943058%
32.967995% 30.555556% 28.571429% 26.899557% 25.464401%
39.346934% 36.000000% 33.333333% 31.138792% 29.289322%
45.118836% 40.828402% 37.500000% 34.812509% 32.580014%
50.341470% 45.130316% 41.176471% 38.032483% 35.450278%
55.067104% 48.979592% 44.444444% 40.882207% 37.982633%
59.343034% 52.437574% 47.368421% 43.425409% 40.238570%
63.212056% 55.555556% 50.000000% 45.711648% 42.264973%
86.466472% 75.000000% 66.666667% 60.314974% 55.278640%
95.021293% 84.000000% 75.000000% 67.905924% 62.203553%
98.168436% 88.888889% 80.000000% 72.672412% 66.666667%
99.326205% 91.836735% 83.333333% 75.990264% 69.848866%
99.752125% 93.750000% 85.714286% 78.455653% 72.264990%
99.908812% 95.061728% 87.500000% 80.372359% 74.180111%
99.966454% 96.000000% 88.888889% 81.912810% 75.746437%
99.987659% 96.694215% 90.000000% 83.182762% 77.058427%
99.995460% 97.222222% 90.909091% 84.250987% 78.178211%
100.000000% 99.173554% 95.238095% 89.866514% 84.382624%
100.000000% 99.609375% 96.774194% 92.210765% 87.196312%
100.000000% 99.773243% 97.560976% 93.546726% 88.888889%
100.000000% 99.852071% 98.039216% 94.426548% 90.049628%
100.000000% 99.895942% 98.360656% 95.057207% 90.909091%
100.000000% 99.922840% 98.591549% 95.535261% 91.578481%
100.000000% 99.940512% 98.765432% 95.912324% 92.118896%
100.000000% 99.952741% 98.901099% 96.218704% 92.567059%
100.000000% 99.961553% 99.009901% 96.473461% 92.946544%

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