Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

2. Frequency Analysis

2.1. General

Water resource systems must be planned for future events for which no exact time of
occurrence can be forecasted. Hence, the hydrologist must give a statement of the probability
of the stream flows (or other hydrologic factors) will equal or exceed (or be less than) a
specified value. These probabilities are important to the economic and social evaluation of a
project. In most cases, absolute control of the floods or droughts is impossible. Planning to
control a flood of a specific probability recognizes that a project will be overtaxed
occasionally and damages will be incurred. However, repair of the damages should be less
costly in the long run than building initially to protect against the worst possible event. The
planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce the frequency of flooding, and hence
the resulting damages. If the socio-economic analysis is to be correct, the probability of
flooding must be eliminated accurately. For major projects, the failure of which seriously
threatens human life, a more extreme event, the probable maximum flood, has become the
standard for designing the spillway.

This chapter deals with techniques for defining probability from a given set of data and with
special methods employed for determining design flood for major hydraulic structures.

Frequency analysis is the hydrologic term used to describe the probability of occurrence of a
particular hydrologic event (e.g. rainfall, flood, drought, etc.). Therefore, basic knowledge
about probability (e.g. distribution functions) and statistics (e.g. measure of location, measure
of spread, measure of skewness, etc.) is essential. Frequency analysis usually requires
recorded hydrological data.

Hydrological data are recorded either as a continuous record (e.g. water level or stage,
rainfall, etc.) or in discrete series form (e.g. mean daily/monthly/annual flows or rainfall,
annual series, partial series, etc.).

For planning and designing of water resources development projects, the important
parameters are river discharges and related questions on the frequency & duration of normal
flows (e.g. for hydropower production or for water availability) and extreme flows (floods
and droughts).

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

2.2. Flow Frequency

The question a planner or decision maker would ask a hydrologist concerning normal flows
is the length of time (duration) that a certain river flow is expected to be exceeded. An
answer to this question is provided by the flow duration curve (FDC) that is the relationship
between any given discharge and the percentage of time that the discharge is exceeded.
Taking the n-years of flow records from a river gauging stations, there are 365(6) n daily
mean discharges. The discharge is compiled, starting with the highest values. If N number of
data points are used for analysis, the plotting position of any discharge (or class value) Q is:

Pp = m / (N+1) (2.1)

Where, m = is the order number of the discharge (or class value)

Pp = percentage probability of the flow magnitude being equaled or exceeded.

The FDC only applies for the period for which it was derived. If this is a long period, say
more than 10 to 20 years, the FDC may be regarded as a probability curve or flow frequency
curve, which may be used to estimate the percentage of time that a specified discharge will
be equaled or exceeded in the future. An example is demonstrated in table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1: Flow records

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

Figure 2.1: Flow Duration Curve

The shape of the flow-duration curve gives a good indication of a catchment’s characteristics
response to its average rainfall history. An initially steeply sloped curve results from a very
variable discharge, usually from small catchments with little storage where the stream flow
reflects directly the rainfall pattern. Flow duration curves that have very flat slope indicate
little variation in flow regime, the resultant of the damping effects of large storages.

2.3. Flood Probability

2.3.1. Selection of Data

If probability analysis is to provide reliable answers, it must start with a data series that is
relevant, adequate, and accurate.

Relevance implies that the data must deal with the problem. Most flood studies are
concerned with peak flows, and the data series will consist of selected observed peaks.
However, if the problem is duration of flooding, e.g., for what periods of time a highway
adjacent to a stream is likely to be flooded, the data series should represent duration of flows

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

in excess of some critical value. If the problem is one of interior drainage of a leveed area,
the data required may consist of those flood volumes occurring when the main river is too
high to permit gravity drainage.

Adequacy refers primarily to length of record, but sparsity of data collecting stations is often
a problem. The observed record is merely a sample of the total population of floods that have
occurred and may occur again. If the sample is too small, the probabilities derived cannot be
expected to be reliable. Available stream flow records are too short to provide an answer to
the question: How long must a record be to define flood probabilities within acceptable
tolerances?

Accuracy refers primarily to the problem of homogeneity. Most flow records are satisfactory
in terms of intrinsic accuracy, and if they are not, there is little that can be done with them. If
the reported flows are unreliable, they are not a satisfactory basis for frequency analysis.
Even though reported flows are accurate, they may be unsuitable for probability analysis if
changes in the catchment have caused a change in the hydrologic characteristics, i.e., if the
record is not internally homogenous. Dams, levees, diversions, urbanization, and other land
use changes may introduce inconsistencies. Such records should be adjusted before use to
current conditions or to natural conditions. There are two data series of floods:
a) The annual series, and
b) The partial duration series.
The annual series constitutes the data series that the values of the single maximum
daily/monthly/annually discharge in each year of record so that the number of data values
equals the record length in years. For statistical purposes, it is necessary to ensure that the
selected peak discharges are independent of one another. This data series is necessary if the
analysis is concerned with probability less than 0.5. However, as the interest are limited to
relatively rare events, the analysis could have been carried out for a partial duration series to
have more frequent events.

The partial duration series constitutes the data series with those values that exceed some
arbitrary level. All the peaks above a selected level of discharge (a threshold) are included in
the series and hence the series is often called the Peaks over Threshold (POT) series. There

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

are generally more data values for analysis in this series than in the annual series, but there is
more chance of the peaks being related and the assumption of true independence is less valid.

2.3.2. Plotting Positions

Probability analysis seeks to define the flood flow with probability of p being equaled or
exceed in any year. Return period Tr is often used instead of probability to describe a design
flood. Return period and probability are reciprocals, i.e.,

p = 1/Tr (2.2)

To plot a series of peak flows as a cumulative frequency curves it is necessary to decide on a

probability or return period to associate with each peak. There are various formulas for
defining this value as shown in table 2.2. The probability of occurrence of the event r times
in n successive years can be obtained from:

(2.3)

Where q = 1 - P

Table 2.2 Plotting position

Consider, for example, a list of flood magnitudes of a river arranged in descending order as
shown in Table 2.3. The length of record is 50 years. The last column shows the return period
T of various flood magnitude, Q. A plot of Q Vs T yields the probability distribution. For
small return periods (i.e. for interpolation) or where limited extrapolation is required, a
simple best-fitting curve through plotted points can be used as the probability distribution. A
logarithmic scale for T is often advantageous. However, when larger extrapolations of T are
involved, theoretical probability distributions (e.g. Gumbel extreme-value, Log- Pearson
Type III, and log normal distributions) have to be used. In frequency analysis of floods, the

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

usual problem is to predict extreme flood events. Towards this, specific extreme-value
distributions are assumed and the required statistical parameters calculated from the available
data. Using these flood magnitudes for a specific return period is estimated.

Table 2.3 Calculation of frequency T

2.3.3. Theoretical Distributions of Floods

Statistical distributions are usually demonstrated by use of samples numbering in the

thousands. No such samples are available for stream flow and it is not possible to state with
certainty that a specific distribution applies to flood peaks. Numerous distributions have been
suggested on the basis of their ability to “fit” the plotted data from streams.

Chow has shown that most frequency-distribution functions applicable in hydrologic studies
can be expressed by the following equation known as the general equation of hydrologic
frequency analysis:

(2.4)

Where xT = value of the variate X of a random hydrologic series with a return period T, x =
mean of the variate, σ = standard deviation of the variate, K=frequency factor which depends
upon the return period, T and the assumed frequency distribution.

2.3.4. Extreme-Value Type I Distribution (Gumbel’s Method)

This extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel (1941) and is commonly known
as Gumbel's distribution. It is one of the most widely used probability distribution functions
for extreme values in hydrologic and meteorological studies for prediction of flood peaks,
maximum rainfalls, and maximum wind speed, etc. Therefore, this extreme value theory of

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

Gumbel is only applicable to annual extremes. In the Gumbel method the data are ranked in
ascending order and it makes use of the probability of non-exceedance q=1-P (the probability
that the annual maximum flow is less than a certain magnitude). The return period T is
therefore given by T = 1 / P = 1 / (1-q).

Gumbel makes use of a reduced variate y as a function of q, which allows the plotting of the
distribution as a linear function between y and X (the maximum flow in this case). Gumbel
also defined a flood as the largest of the 365 daily flows and the annual series of flood flows
constitute a series of largest values of flow. According to his theory of extreme events, the
probability of occurrence of an event equal to or larger than a value x0 is

(2.5)

(2.6)

(2.7)

In practice it is the value of X for a given P that is required as such Eq. (2.5) is transposed as

(2.8)

(2.9)

(2.10)

(2.11)

Now rearranging Eq. (2.7) the values of the variate X with a return period T is

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

2.12

Note that Eq. (2.12) is of the same form as the general equation of hydrologic frequency
analysis, Eq. (2.4). Further eq. (2.11) and (2.12) constitute the basic Gumbel's equations and
are applicable to an infinite sample size (i.e. N → ∞).

Since practical annual data series of extreme events such as floods, maximum rainfall depths,
etc., all have finite lengths of record; Eq. (2.12) is modified to account for finite N as given
below for practical use.

2.3.5. Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use

Equation (2.11) giving the variate X with the return period T is used as

(2.13)

(2.14)

(2.15)

y n = reduced mean, a function of sample size N and is given in Table 2.4

Table
2.5; for N→∞, Sn→ 1.2825

These equations are used under the following procedure to estimate the flood magnitude
corresponding to a given return period based on annual flood series.

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

i. Assemble the discharge data and note the sample size N. Here the annual flood
value is the variate X. Find x and σn-1 for the given data.
ii. Using Tables 2.4 and 2.5 determine y n and Sn appropriate to given N.
iii. Find yT for a given T by Eq. (2.15).
iv. Find K by Eq. (2.14).
v. Determine the required xT by Eq. (2.13).

To verify whether the given data follow the assumed Gumbel's distribution, the following
procedure may be adopted. The value of x T for some return periods T < N are calculated by
using Gumbel's formula and plotted as x T Vs T on a convenient paper such as a semi-log,
log-log or Gumbel probability paper. The use of Gumbel probability paper results in a
straight line for xT Vs T plot. Gumbel's distribution has the property which gives T = 2.33
years for the average of the annual series when N is very large. Thus, the value of a flood
with T = 2.33 years is called the mean annual flood. In graphical plots this gives a mandatory
point through which the line showing variation of xT with T must pass. For the given data,
values of return periods (plotting positions) for various recorded values, x of the variate are
obtained by the relation T = (N+1)/m and plotted on the graph described above. A good fit of
observed data with the theoretical variation line indicates the applicability of Gumbel's
distribution to the given data series. By extrapolation of the straight-line xT Vs T, values of xT
> N can be determined easily.

The Gumbel (or extreme-value) probability paper is a paper that consists of an abscissa
specially marked for various convenient values of the return period T (or corresponding
reduced variate yT in arithmetic scale). The ordinate of a Gumbel paper represents x T (flood
discharge, maximum rainfall depth, etc.), which may have either arithmetic scale or
logarithmic scale.

Table 2.4: Reduced mean in Gumbel’s extreme value distribution, N= sample size

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

Table 2.5: Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel’s extreme value distribution, N=sample
size

2.3.6. Confidence Limits for the fitted data

Since the value of the variate for a given return period, xT determined by Gumbel's method
can have errors due to the limited sample data used; an estimate of the confidence limits of
the estimate is desirable. The confidence interval indicates the limits about the calculated
value between which the true value can be said to lie with a specific probability based on
sampling errors only. For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of the variate x T
is bound by value x1 and x2 given by
x1/2 = xT ± f (c) Se (2.16)
Where f(c) = function of the confidence probability c determined by using the table of
normal variate as

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

(2.17)
K= frequency factor

It is seen that for a given sample and T, 80% confidence limits are twice as large as the 50%
limits and 95% limits are thrice as large as 50% limits.
In addition to the analysis of maximum extreme events, there also is a need to analyze
minimum extreme events; e.g. the occurrence of droughts. The probability distribution of
Gumbel, similarly to the Gaussian probability distribution, does not have a lower limit;
meaning that negative values of events may occur. As rainfall or river flows do have a lower
limit of zero, neither the Gumbel nor Gaussian distribution is an appropriate tool to analyze
minimum values. Because the logarithmic function has a lower limit of zero, it is often useful
to first transform the series to its logarithmic value before applying the theory. Appropriate
tools for analyzing minimum flows or rainfall amounts are the Log-Normal, Log-Gumbel, or
Log-Pearson distributions.

2.3.7. Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

This distribution is widely used in USA. In this distribution the variate is first transformed
into logarithmic form (base 10) and the transformed data is then analyzed. If X is the variate
of a random hydrologic series, then the series of Z variates where
Z = log x (2.18)
are first obtained. For this z series, for any recurrence interval T, equation (2.4) gives

ZT = z +KZσZ (2.19)
Where Kz = a frequency factor which is a function of recurrence interval T and the
coefficient of skew Cs,

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

(2.20)

The variations of Kz = f (Cs, T) is given in Table 2.6. After finding z T by Eq. (2.19), the
corresponding value of xT is obtained by Eq. (2.18) as xT = antilog(zT). Sometimes, the
coefficient of skew Cs, is adjusted to account for the size of the sample by using the
following relation proposed by Hazen (1930)

(2.21)
^ s= adjusted coefficient of skew. However, the standard procedure for use of Log-
Where C
Pearson Type III distribution adopted by U.S. Water Resources Council does not include this
adjustment for skew. When the skew is zero, i.e. Cs = 0, the Log-Pearson Type III
distribution reduces to Log-normal distribution. The Log-normal distribution plots as a
straight line on logarithmic probability paper.

Table 2.6 Kz=F(Cs,T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

The flood-frequency analysis described above is a direct means of estimating the desired
flood based upon the available flood-flow data of the catchment. The results of the frequency
analysis depend upon the length of data. The minimum number of years of record required to
obtain satisfactory estimates depends upon the variability of data and hence on the physical
and climatological characteristics of the basin. Generally, a minimum of 30 years of data is
considered as essential. Smaller lengths of records are also used when it is unavoidable.
However, frequency analysis should not be adopted if the length of records is less than 10
years.

Flood-frequency studies are most reliable in climates that are uniform from year to year. In
such cases a relatively short record gives a reliable picture of the frequency distribution. With
increasing lengths of flood records, it affords a viable alternative method of flood-flow
estimation in most cases.

A final remark of caution should be made regarding to frequency analysis. None of the
frequency distribution functions have a real physical background. The only information
having physical meaning are the measurements themselves. Extrapolation beyond the period

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

of observation is dangerous. It requires a good engineer to judge the value of extrapolated

events of high return periods. A good impression of the relativity of frequency analysis can
be acquired through the comparison of result obtained from different statistical methods.
Generally, they differ considerably.

2.4. Precipitation Probability

Rainfall during a year or season (or a number of years) consists of several storms. The
characteristics of a rainstorm are (i) intensity (cm/hr.), (ii) duration (min, hr., or days), (iii)
frequency (once in 5 years or once in 10, 20, 40, 60 or 100 years), and (iv) areal extent (i.e.,
area over which it is distributed).
Correlation of rainfall records—Suppose a number of years of rainfall records observed on
recording and non-recording rain-gauges for a river basin are available; then it is possible to
correlate (i) the intensity and duration of storms, and (ii) the intensity, duration and frequency
of storms.
If there are storms of different intensities and of various durations, then a relation may be
obtained by plotting the intensities (i, cm/hr.) against durations (t, min, or hr.) of the
respective storms either on the natural graph paper, or on a double log (log-log) paper, Fig.
2.2(a) and relations of the form given below may be obtained
(a) i =a/ (t + b) A.N. Talbot’s formula (for t = 5 – 120 min) …………………………….
(2.22)
(b) i =k /t n …………………………………………………...…...…...…. (2.23)

(c) i =kt x ……………………………………………………………...…… (2.24)

where t = duration of rainfall or its part, a, b, k, n and x are constants for a given region.
Since x is usually negative Eqns. (2.23) and (2.24) are same and are applicable for durations t
> 2 hr. By taking logarithms on both sides of Eqn. (2.24),
log i = log k + x log t
which is in the form of a straight line, i.e., if i and t are plotted on a log-log paper, the slope,
of the straight-line plot gives the constant x and the constant k can be determined as i = k
when
t = 1. Hence, the fitting equation for the rainfall data of the form of Eqn. (2.24) can be
determined and similarly of the form of Eqns. (2.22) and (2.23).

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

On the other hand, if there are rainfall records for 30 to 40 years, the various storms during
the period of record may be arranged in the descending order of their magnitude (of
maximum depth or intensity). When arranged like this in the descending order, if there are a
total number of n items and the order number or rank of any particular storm (maximum
depth or intensity) is m, then the recurrence interval T (also known as the return period) of
the storm magnitude is given by one of the following equations:

(a) California method (1923), T =n /m …………………………….….... (2.25)

(b) Hazen’s method (1930), T =n /(m−1/2) ……………………………… (2.26)
(c) Kimball’s method, (Weibull, 1939) T =(n+1)/m……………….………... (2.27)
and the frequency F (expressed as per cent of time) of that storm magnitude (having
recurrence
interval T) is given by
F=1/T∗100 %……………………………………………………. (2.28)
Values of precipitation plotted against the percentages of time give the ‘frequency curve’. All
the three methods given above give very close results especially in the central part of the
curve and particularly if the number of items is large.

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

Fig. 2.2 Correlation of storm characteristics

Recurrence interval is the average number of years during which a storm of given magnitude
(maximum depth or intensity) may be expected to occur once, i.e., may be equaled or
exceeded. Frequency F is the percentage of years during which a storm of given magnitude
may be equaled or exceeded. For example, if a storm of a given magnitude is expected to
occur once in 20 years, then its recurrence interval T = 20 yr., and its frequency (probability
of exceedance) F = (1/20) 100|% = 5%, i.e., frequency is the reciprocal (percent) of the
recurrence interval.

The probability that a T-year storm (and frequency F=1/T∗100 %) may not occur in any
series of N years is

P (N, 0) = (1 – F) N ……………………………………………………………………. (2.29)

and that it may occur is

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

PEx = 1 – (1 – F) N ……………………………………………………………………. (2.30)

where PEx = probability of occurrence of a T-year storm in N-years.

The probability of a 20-year storm (i.e., T = 20, F = 5%) will not occur in the next 10 years is
(1 – 0.05)10 = 0.6 or 60% and the probability that the storm will occur (i.e., will be equaled or
exceeded) in the next 10 years is 1 – 0.6 = 0.4 or 40% (percent chance).

If the intensity-duration curves are plotted for various storms, for different recurrence
intervals, then a relation may be obtained of the form
i = 〖 kT 〗 x /t e…...Sherman .................................................................................. (2.31)
where k, x and e are constants.
‘i vs. t’ plotted on a natural graph paper for storms of different recurrence intervals yields
curves of the form shown in Fig. 2.2 (b), while on a log-log paper yields straight line plots.
By taking logarithms on both sides of Eq. (2.31),
log i = (log k + x log T) – e log t
which plots a straight line; k = i, when T and t are equal to 1. Writing for two values of T (for
the same t):
log i1 = (log k + x log T1) – e log t
log i2 = (log k + x log T2) – e log t
Subtracting, log i1 – log i2 = x (log T1 – log T2)
Δlog i
Or x=
Δlog T
∴ x = charge in log i per log-cycle of T (for the same value of t)
Again, writing for two values of t (for the same T):
log i1 = (log k + x log T) – e log t1
log i2 = (log k + x log T) – e log t2
Subtracting log i1 – log i2 = – e (log t1 – log t2)
Δlogi
Or −e=
Δlog t
Δlog i
Or e=−slope=
Δlog t
∴ e = change in log i per log cycle of t (for the same value of T).

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

The lines obtained for different frequencies (i.e., T values) may be taken as roughly parallel
for a particular basin though there may be variation in the slope ‘e’. Suppose, if a 1- year
recurrence interval line is required, draw a line parallel to 10–year line, such that the distance
between them is the same as that between 5-year and 50-year line; similarly a 100- year line
can be drawn parallel to the 10-year line keeping the same distance (i.e., distance per log
cycle of T). The value of i where the 1-year line intersects the unit time ordinate (i.e., t = 1
min, say) gives the value of k. Thus, all the constants of Eq. (2.31) can be determined from
the log-log plot of ‘i vs. t’ for different values of T, which requires a long record of rainfall
data. Such a long record, will not usually be available for the specific design area and hence
it becomes necessary to apply the intensity duration curves of some nearby rain gauge
stations and adjust for the local differences in climate due to difference in elevation, etc.
Generally, high intensity precipitations can be expected only for short durations, and higher
the intensity of storm, the lesser is its frequency.
Example 2.5 (a) In a Certain water shed, the rainfall mass curves were available for 30 (n)
consecutive years. The most severe storms for each year were picked up and arranged in the
descending order (rank m). The mass curve for storms for three years are given below.
Establish

Solution

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

The intensity-duration curves (lines) are plotted on log-log paper (Fig. 2.2 (c)), which yield
straight lines nearby parallel. A straight line for T = 1 – yr. is drawn parallel to the line T = 10
yr. at a distance equal to that between T = 30–yr. and T = 3-yr. From the graph at T = 1- yr.
and t = 1 min, k = 103.
The slope of the lines, say for T = 30-yr is equal to the change in log i per log cycle of t, i.e.,
for t = 10 min and 100 min, slope = log 68 – log 17 = 1.8325 – 1.2304 = 0.6021 ≈ 0.6 = e.

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Fig. 2.2. (c) Intensity-duration relationship, (Ex. 2.5 (a))

At t = 10 min, the change in log i per log cycle of T, i.e., between T = 3–yrs. and 30–yrs.
lines (on the same vertical), log 68 – log 31 = 1.8325 – 1.4914 = 0.3411 ≈ 0.34 = x.

Hence, the intensity-duration relationship for the watershed can be established as

For illustration, for the most severe storm (m = 1, T = 30–yrs.), at t = 60 min, i.e., after 1
hr. of commencement of storm,

which is very near to the observed value of 22 mm/hr.

A more general Intensity-Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationship is of the form
Sherman

where K, x, a and n are constants for a given catchment. The rainfall records for about 30 to
50 years of different intensities and durations on a basin can be analyzed with their computed
recurrence interval (T). They can be plotted giving trial values of ‘a’ for the lines of best fit
as shown in Fig. 2.2 (b). The values of a and n may be different for different lines of
recurrence interval.

The constants can also be obtained by multiple regression model based on the principle of
least squares and solutions can be obtained by computer-based numerical analysis;
confidence intervals for the predictions can be developed.

Extreme point rainfall values of different durations and recurrence interval (return period)
have been evaluated by IMD and the ‘isopluvial maps’ (lines connecting equal depths of
rainfall) for the country prepared.

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Example 2.5 (b) A small water shed consists of 2 km 2 of forest area (c = 0.1), 1.2 km 2 of
cultivated area (c = 0.2) and 1 km2 under grass cover (c = 0.35). A water course falls by 20
m in a length of 2 km. The IDF relation for the area may be taken as

Estimate the peak rate of runoff for a 25 yrs. frequency.

Solution Time of concentration (in hr.)

The preceding discussions on flood probability apply generally to precipitation. Annual

maximum hourly or daily amounts ordinarily conform to Gumbel Type I, Log-Pearson or
Log-Normal distribution. In humid areas, where the mean is high, monthly, seasonal, or
annual totals will approximate a normal distribution. In drier areas a skew distribution such
as the Log-Pearson, Log-Normal may give a better fit.

2.5. Low Flow Analysis

Characterization of the magnitude, frequency, and duration of low stream flows and droughts
is vital for assessing the reliability of flows for all in-stream and withdrawal uses and for
defining resource shortages and drought.

2.5.1. Definitions and Basic Concepts

Low Stream flows

The objective of low-flow analysis is to estimate the frequency or probability with which
stream flow in a given reach will be less than various levels. Thus, the flow-duration curve; is
an important tool of low-flow analysis; from it one can readily determine the flow associated

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

with any exceedance or non-exceedance probability. Most of the time, the flow exceeded
95% of the time, q95, is a useful index of water availability that is often used for design
purposes.

For purposes of statistical analysis, low flows are defined as annual minimum flows averaged
over consecutive-day periods of varying length. The most commonly used averaging period
is d = 7days, but analyses are often carried out for d = 13, 15, 30, 60, 90 and 180 days as
well. Low-flow quantile values are cited as "dQp," where p is now the annual non-
exceedance probability (in percent) for the flow averaged over d-days. The 7-day average
flow that has an annual non-exceedance probability of 0.10 (a recurrence interval of 10 yrs.),
called "7Q10," is commonly used as a low-flow design value. the “7Q10” value is interpreted
as follows: In any year there is a 10% probability that the lowest 7-consecutive-day average
flow will be less than the 7Q1O value.

Droughts
Droughts are extended severe dry periods. To qualify as a drought, a dry period must have
duration of at least a few months and be a significant departure from normal. Drought must
be expected as part of the natural climate, even in the absence of any long-term climate
change. However, “permanent” droughts due to natural climate shifts do occur, and appear to
have been responsible for large scale migrations and declines of civilizations through human
history. The possibility of regional droughts associated with climatic shifts due to warming
cannot be excluded. As shown in Figure 4.3, droughts begin with a deficit in precipitation
that is unusually extreme and prolonged relative to the usual climatic conditions
(meteorological drought). This is often, but not always, accompanied by unusually high
temperatures, high winds, low humidity, and high solar radiation that result in increased
evapotranspiration. These conditions commonly produce extended periods of unusually low
soil moisture, which affect agriculture and natural plant growth and the moisture of forest
floor (Agricultural drought). As the precipitation deficit continues, stream discharge, lake,
wetland, and reservoir levels, and water-table decline to unusually low levels (Hydrological
drought). When precipitation returns to more normal values, drought recovery follows the
same sequence: meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological. Meteorological drought is
usually characterized as a precipitation deficit.

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2.5.2. Low flow frequency analysis

As noted earlier, the objective of low flow frequency analysis is to estimate quantiles of
annual d-days-average minimum flows. As with floods, such estimates are usually required
for reaches without long-term stream flow records. These estimates are first developed by
analyzing low flows at gauging stations.

Low flow analysis at gauging stations:

For gauged reach, low flow analysis involves development of a time series of annual d-days
low flow, where d is the averaging period. As shown in the table below, the analysis begins
with a time series of average daily flows for each year. Then the overlapping d-days averages
are computed for the d values of interest. For each value of d, this creates 365-(d-1) values of
consecutive d-days averages for each year. The smallest of these values is then selected to
produce an annual time series of minimum d-days flows. It is this time series that is then
subjected to frequency analysis to estimate the quantiles of the annual d-days flows.

Low flow analysis at un-gauged stations:

As with floods, estimates of low flow quantiles are usually required for stream reaches where
there are no long-term gauging station records. There are two basic approaches to developing
such estimates:
i. Relate dQp values to drainage-basins characteristics via regression analysis.
ii. During the low flow season, make a number of spot measurements of discharge at the
un-gauged stream reach where the dQp estimate is needed. Then relate those flows to
concurrent flows at a nearby gauging station using

qu = a + bqg (2.31)

where:

qu is the flow at the un-gauged site, qg is the concurrent flow at the gauged site, and a and b
are estimated via regression anlysis. Then estimate the dQp at the un-gauged site, dQpu, as:

dQpu = a + b.dQg (2.32)

where:

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dQqg is the dQp value established by frequency analysis at the gauged site. In order to
minimize errors when using this procedure, each pair of flows used to establish equation
(3.22) should be from a separate hydrograph recession, the r2 value for the relation of
equation (3.22) should be at least 0.70 and the two basins should be similar in size, geology,
topography, and climate.

2.5.3. Drought analysis

The objective of drought analysis is to characterize the magnitude, duration, and severity of
meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological drought in a region of interest. The analysis
process can be structured in terms of five questions:
i. What type of drought of interest?
ii. What averaging period will be used?
iii. How will “drought” be quantitatively defined?
iv. What is the magnitude-frequency relations of drought characteristics?
v. How are regional aspects of drought addressed?

Drought type:

As noted, one may be interested in one or more of the basic types of drought, each reflected
in time series of particular types of data: meteorological (precipitation); agricultural (soil
moisture); or hydrological (stream flow, reservoir levels, or ground water levels)

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

Figure 4.3: Sequence of drought impacts

Averaging Period:

As with time-series analysis generally, drought analysis requires selection of an averaging

period (dt). Since drought by definition have significant duration, one would usually select dt
= 1 month, 3 months, or 1 yr, with the choice depending on the available data and the
purposes of the analysis. For a given record length the selection of dt involves a trade-off in
uncertainty of the analysis:

Drought definition:

Figure 3.4 shows a time series of a selected quantity, X (e.g., precipitation, stream flow,
ground water level), averaged over an appropriate dt. The quantitative definition of drought

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is determined by the truncation level, X0, selected by the analyst: Values of X < X0 are
defined as droughts. Typical values for X0 might be:

Dracup et al. (1980) suggested choosing because it standardizes the analysis and
gives more significance to extreme events, which are usually of most interest.

Once X0 is determined, each period for which X < X0 constitutes a “drought” and each
“drought” is characterized by the following measures:
Duration, D = length of period for which X < X0;
Severity, S = cumulative deviation from X0;
Intensity (or magnitude), I = S/D.
Note that if X is stream flow [L3T-1], then the dimensions of S are [L3T-1]x[T]=[L3] and
the dimensions of I are [L3T-1]
Magnitude- Frequency Relations:
Once the severities, durations, and intensities of “drought” have been determined for a given
time series, the magnitude-frequency characteristics of each of those quantities can be
analyzed.

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

Figure 3.4: Quantitative definition of droughts. X is a drought measure, X0 is the truncation

level. D1, D2, D3 are durations of droughts 1, 2 and 3. The areas S1, S2, S3 are severities of
droughts 1, 2 and 3.

2.6. Risk, Reliability and Safety factor

2.6.1. Risk and Reliability

The designer of a hydraulic structure always faces a nagging doubt about the risk of failure of
his structure. This is because the estimation of the hydrologic design values (such as the
design flood discharge and the river stage during the design flood) involve a natural or inbuilt
uncertainty and as such a hydrological risk of failure. As an example, consider a weir with an
expected life of 50 years and designed for a flood magnitude of return period T=100 years.
This weir may fail if a flood magnitude greater than the design flood occurs within the life
period (50 years) of the weir.

The probability of occurrence of an event (x ≥ xT) at least once over a period of n successive
years is called the risk, R. Thus, the risk is given by R = 1 - (probability of non-occurrence of
the event x ≥ xT in n years)

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Surface Hydrology Lecture Note

(2.33)

(2.34)

It can be seen that the return period for which a structure should be designed depends upon
the acceptable level of risk. In practice, the acceptable risk is governed by economic and
policy considerations.

2.6.2. Safety Factor

In addition to the hydrologic uncertainty, as mentioned above, a water resource development

project will have many other uncertainties. These may arise out of structural, constructional,
operational and environmental causes as well as from non-technological considerations such
as economic, sociological and political causes. As such, any water resource development
project will have a safety factor for a given hydrological parameter M as defined below.

Safety factor (for the parameter M) = (SF) m=

(2.35)
The parameter M includes such items as flood discharge magnitude, maximum river stage,
reservoir capacity and free board. The difference (Cam - Chm) is known as Safety Margin.

Exercise 1: Annual flood data of a certain river covering the period 1948 to 1979 yielded for
the annual flood discharges a mean of 29,600m3/s and a standard deviation of 14,860m3/s.
for a proposed bridge on this river near the gauging site it is decided to have an acceptable
risk of 10% in its expected life of 50 years.
(a) Estimate the flood discharge by Gumbel's method for use in the design of this structure

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(b) If the actual flood value adopted in the design is 125,000m3/s what are the safety factor
and safety margin relating to maximum flood discharge? (Answers (a) 105,000m3/s and (b)
(SF) flood = 1.19, Safety Margin for flood magnitude = 20,000m3/s)

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