State of Israel

Ministry of National Infrastructures Ministry of the Environment

The Geological Survey Policy and Planning Division

The Jerusalem Institute

for Israel Studies
The Environmental Policy Center

Policy Document

The Dead Sea Basin

Assessment of Current Situation and Prospects for the Future
Under Continued Dead Sea Water-Level Decline

Jerusalem
2006
 Policy Document

The Dead Sea Basin

Assessment of Current Situation and Prospects for the Future

Under Continued Dead Sea Water-Level Decline

Submitted to the Government of Israel

Jerusalem
2006
Language editing – Shlomo Arad
English Summary editing – David Hornik, Ithamar Perath
Coordinating – Galit Hazan, The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Printing production – Hamutal Appel, The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Design and typesetting – Esti Boehm
Proofreading – Michal Korach, The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies

The Document is available at:

www.sviva.gov.il
www.jiis.org.il
www.gsi.gov.il

Rights belong to the Ministry of the Environment and to the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies.
It is allowed to copy parts of this document for educational, research and policy making purposes,
provided an appropriate credit will be given to this work.
THE STEERING COMMITTEE

Chairpersons:
Dr. Miriam Haran Director-General, Ministry of the Environment
Dr. Michael Beyth Ministry of National Infrastructures
Valerie Brachya Ministry of the Environment

Members:
Ohad Ornstein Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor
Yaron Ergaz Ministry of Tourism
Adv. Neta Drori Ministry of the Environment
Architect Alicia Sieber Ministry of the Interior
Jacob Keidar Ministry of Foreign Affairs
David Deshen Deutsh Israel Lands Administration
Amir Shavit Ministry of Finance
Asaf Meir Ministry of Finance
Dov Litvinoff Tamar Regional Council
Mordechai Dahman Megillot Regional Council
Eng. Oded Harel Dead Sea Works Ltd.
David Yaroslavitch Water Commission
Dan Schwartz Dead Sea Drainage Authority
Nir Engert Israel Nature and Parks Authority
Adv. Gideon Bromberg Friends of the Earth Middle East
Research and Writing of the Document

The Physical Infrastructure

Geological Survey of Israel
Dr. Amos Bein
Dr. Ittai Gavrieli
Dr. Yoav Avni
Dr. Moshe Shirav
Dr. Yossi Yechieli
Dr. Meir Abelson
Dr. Gidi Baer
Dr. Ezra Zilberman
Dr. Amos Solomon
Dr. Oded Katz

Ecology and Environment

Eli Raz – Geology and Environmental Counseling
Dr. Ron Frumkin – Ecological and Environmental Adviser

Planning
Motti Kaplan – Regional and Environmental Planning
Nirit Vitman – Motti Kaplan, Regional and Environmental Planning

Economics
Ran Haklai – Urban Economics Inc.
Dr. Nir Becker – University of Haifa
Hagit Zelinger – University of Haifa
Ron Benari – Engineer

Law and Public Administration

Dr. Richard Laster, Adv. – Laster and Goldman Law Office
Adv. Varda Brief – Laster and Goldman Law Office
Dani Livney – Laster and Goldman Law Office

Editors
Dr. Amir Eidelman – The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies
Galit Cohen – Ministry of the Environment
Dr. Amos Bein – Geological Survey of Israel
Motti Kaplan – Regional and Environmental Planning
Preface

The continuing decline of the Dead Sea lake to the Dead Sea and its shores, to analyze their
level is causing physical changes along its significance, and to recommend a policy for
shores, which have an impact on daily life and the future of the region. The paper shows how
on the development of the region. The to enable flourishing settlement in the vicinity
magnitudes of the changes and their of the Dead Sea shores, and how optimal and
associated threats have fostered uncertainties sustainable development may be assured.
that impede present activities and arrest
previously planned development.
Frame of work
The decline in the water level and the
associated physical changes are expected to Initiative for preparing the present document
persist and possibly even intensify in the future. derives from the extensive changes that are
Coping with these ongoing processes and currently taking place in the Dead Sea Basin,
future development require formulation of new and the need to outline a national policy for
strategies that take into consideration the its future. Analysis of the information obtained
impact of these changes. in the context of the present study shows
unequivocally that the negative water balance
A major cause of uncertainty is the seemingly
of the Dead Sea will not improve in the
haphazard proliferation of sinkholes, mostly in
foreseeable future. Water level will continue
recently exposed areas along the shore. In
to drop at a rate of about one meter per year
response to this challenge, maps have been
and possibly more. Therefore, a further 15-
prepared of those areas where substrate failure
20 m decline in water level is expected before
is anticipated at various levels of certainty,
any remedial measures can take effect, even
beside areas of stable and safe substrate
if immediate drastic action were decided upon,
where development can proceed without
such as building a sea conduit (the “peace
restrictions. These maps, drawn upon in-depth
conduit”) or the restoration of natural inflow.
studies, significantly reduce the level of
This reflects the time minimum required for
uncertainty and allow the development of the
studying the environmental consequences of
region despite the above mentioned
any such project, the acquisition of
uncertainties. Yet new development concepts
complementary data, for planning and approval
need to be accepted.
(especially for a multilateral project), for
This document presents data on the present mobilizing resources, for initiating the operation
condition, and offers assessments and of such a large-scope project, and for actual
predictions concerning future conditions in the constructions.
Dead Sea region. The document concerns with
It should be noted that even after
the implications of the default option i.e.,
implementation of a remedial program, raising
the scenario that predicts what is likely to
of the lake level from 435-440 m below sea
occur in the Dead Sea and its surroundings
level (today’s, year 2005 level is -418) to any
if no steps are taken to arrest the decline
target level will take many years from the
in water level.
inception of recharge. All the present problems,
The present document purports to assemble particularly substrate subsidence and land
a reliable and comprehensive database of all failure below the -400 m contour, will gradually
the present phenomena and changes relating dissipate only when the lake level again

v
approaches this level. In this respect it should ❖ The main body of the document, which
also be noted that at a lake level above -402- consists of a nine-chapter survey of the
-400 the South Basin will be reflooded. It should region’s settlements, the physical substrate
however be recalled that much of the Southern and water body, ecology and environment,
Basin is currently occupied by the Dead Sea land use, and an economic analysis.
Works’ and Arab Potash Co.’s evaporation
❖ Appendices: data, and complementary
ponds and therefore the rising water will be
analyses.
impeded by the dams surrounding these
ponds, while possibly endangering them.
Moreover, even if the target level will be set at
today’s -418 m level, turning the present trend
of decline and refilling to this level will take at
least another 30-40 years.
Therefore, the “default option” and its
ensuing realities are valid and relevant to
any foreseeable planning horizon (30-40
years, and possibly even more). At the
same time, trend-turning steps should of
course also be examined, in order to
formulate a long term integrative and
sustainable national policy.
The ongoing decline in the water level and the
deterioration of infrastructure along the shores
have generated a climate of uncertainty
concerning the continuation of the current
phenomena, future trends, the risks generated,
and accompanying economic costs. The
present document dispels much of this
uncertainty and presents a multidisciplinary
perspective and a well-grounded forecast of
the future of the Sea and its shores. This
forecast constitutes a basis for formulating a
policy of management and development that
meets the changing conditions, and can enable
ongoing activity and development of the
region’s potential.

Structure of the Document

The document has three divisions:
❖ Policy directives for the future of the Dead
Sea, including alternative land use planning
adapted to changing regional conditions.
This part summarizes the main findings of
the study, their significance and recommen-
dations.

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A. Findings, implications, and policy guidelines

1. A state of uncertainty disrupts the 2) Dispelling uncertainty and providing

routine of life and limits long-term a reliable forecast for the dynamic
planning changes in the Dead Sea basin

❖ The present condition of the Dead Sea ❖ The Dead Sea’s rate of decline in the near
reflects the regional water shortage, and is future will be about 1 m per year; hence, by
a consequence of the policies of the the year 2025 lake level will have dropped
Jordanian, Syrian, and Israeli governments to about 440 m below sea level, and by 2050
in exploiting the water resources of the to about 465 m below sea level.
Basin for water supply, and the extraction
of the sea’s salt by industrial plants in Israel
and Jordan. Over one billion cu./m of fresh ❖ The Dead Sea is not expected to
water per year are prevented from flowing disappear even if no measures are taken
into the Dead Sea, as they did in the past. to change the negative water balance of
The mineral industries increase the water today. Although water level will continue to
deficit by an additional 250 million cu./m per decline in the coming years, it is likely to
year in the evaporation pans located in the approach a stable situation in about 200
South Basin, which otherwise would have years, at a level about -550 m below mean
been dry. The ensuing situation causes sea level. At this stage the lake’s maximal
damage and adversely affects everyday life depth will be about 180-200 m and its
in the region, while uncertainty about its surface area will have shrunk to 450 sq.km.
future increases.
The reduction in the surface area and the
increase of salinity of the remaining brine
❖ The drop in the water level leads to continual will reduce the volume of annual evapora-
changes in the location of the shoreline and tion, and subsequently, when evaporation
in the prevailing physical conditions along will equal inflows to the lake, lake level will
the shores. These changes affect the stabilize.
stability of infrastructures, threaten and
cause damage to buildings, roads, bridges, Prior to this, lake level will continue to drop
agricultural lands, and other infrastructures. significantly while the lake’s surface area
They also prevent immediate accessibility will shrink at a slower rate than it has done
to the shoreline and impair the touristic hitherto. For comparison: lake level in 1950
attractiveness of the region. stood at -395 m and surface area was about
1,000 sq.km; today, lake level is -418 m and
surface area is about 650 sq.km. The
❖ The high level of uncertainty of existing reason is that after the total desiccation of
trends and the degree of risk that they pose the shallow South Basin, the remaining sea
has brought existing development programs is located in the deep North Basin where
to a halt and prevents the promotion of further drop in sea level is reflected by a
programs which could realize the potential relatively smaller horizontal migration of the
of this unique region shoreline.

vii
❖ This policy document presents and dis- changes in the shore habitat, creating rapid-
cusses maps of the future physical infra- flow gullies which may breach pool
structure, including: embankments. Also, the local groundwater
table may be lowered and salinities may
◆ The location of the likely future shorelines
rise. The overall effects may include a
in space and in time.
reduction in biodiversity, changes in
◆ Subsidence and regions prone to the migration patterns, and damage to unique
emergence of sinkholes, categorized into local ecosystems.
active sinkhole sites, areas in which there
is a potential for sinkholes, areas in which
the possibility of sinkholes can not be
ruled out, and areas in which sinkholes
4) Economic implications of the default
are not expected to develop.
option
◆ Exposure of mud flats, steep slopes, and
regions prone to landslides and
mudslides. ❖ The financial value of the default option can
be quantified by means of a “Restoration
◆ Accelerated undercutting and deepening
Costs”, which is a balance between the cost
of the creeks, which threaten to damage
of damages to agriculture and to the road
roads, bridges and other infrastructures.
networks against the benefits accruing to
◆ Undermining the stability of natural water the Dead Sea Works by increase of the salt
pools such as Einot-Zukim, Kaneh, and concentration in the North Basin.
Samar, and damage to these unique
sites.
❖ The Dead Sea mineral industries in Israel
◆ Loss of underground water storage
and in Jordan draw economic benefit from
capacity, which diminishes the onetime
the past changes, and may anticipate
reserve of the aquifers that drain into the
further benefits in the coming decades.
Dead Sea from all directions, as a result
Increased water salinity increases the
of the decline in the water level. This loss
efficiency of salt extraction. After subtracting
is expected to be relatively small, not
the production costs resulting from the
exceeding few tens of millions of cubic
decline in the water level, the profit gained
meters per year, far less than claims
from increased salinity amounts to an
made in the past, mainly by Jordanian
additional 100,000 tons of potash produced
experts, of a loss of hundreds of millions
per year (this for the Israeli Dead Sea
of cubic meters annually.
industries only). With raw potash selling at
about 12 Euro per ton, this represents about
1.2 million Euro, or about 6.8 million Israeli
Shekels (NIS) per year. The capitalized
3) Irreversible damage to the shore
value of the annual income supplement is
habitat and to unique species
about 78 million NIS over 20 years and 107
million NIS over 50 years.
❖ The ecology of the lakeside oases is of both
local and universal value. They serve as
important rest stops along birds’ migration ❖ The following table presents data on the
routes, and as a source of water and food Restoration Costs and the costs of direct
for the birds and larger mammals of the damages that stem from changes in the
Judean Desert. Dropping lake levels cause water level:

viii
 today consists almost entirely of extensive
Type of damage Costs in NIS
evaporation ponds. Whereas along the
Capitalized Capitalized
North Basin sinkholes formation is brisk,
for 20 years for 50 years
in the South Basin, along the western
shore of the evaporation pond no. 5 and
Undercutting of roads,
southward they are comparatively rare.
bridges, and drainage
Today the area is still being investigated,
channels by creek
and not much is known neither about
entrenchment 31,000,000 38,000,000
sinkhole formation within the evaporation
ponds and the industrial terrain, nor about
Sinkholes in roads 12,00,000 15,000,000
sinkhole-promoting subsurface conditions.
Agriculture 12,000,000 12,000,000

❖ The presence of the evaporation ponds

Total cost of damages 55,000,000 65,000,000
provides an economic basis for the
proliferation of thriving lakeside spa hotels.
However, the ponds accumulate some 20
cm of salt per year on their bottom, and
❖ The sum of benefits to the Israeli, Syrian,
maintenance of a constant water depth in
and Jordanian economies from the use of
the ponds requires raising the brine level,
fresh water subtracted from the water
thereby threatening the hotel foundations.
balance of the Dead Sea are not taken into
Various alternatives are currently examined
account in this study. The subject will be
under the auspices of the Ministry of
examined in the future, along with the
Tourism and in accordance with a special
assessment of possible measures for
government decision, aiming at a solution
changing the negative water balance of the
for the hotels until 2030, when the Dead Sea
Dead Sea.
Works’ concession expires.
❖ The Restoration Costs method examines
the cost of rehabilitating the infrastructures
affected by the decline in lake level, but does ❖ At present there are no data or estimates
not consider the loss of unique natural concerning the life expectancy of the
values associated with the Dead Sea, and Dead Sea Works beyond their concession
the Dead Sea’s economic value as an period. However, the continued existence
environmental resource, although the of the evaporation ponds has major
present paper presents a preliminary implications for the development of their
attempt to quantify these values. terrain, and indeed of the whole South
Basin, and for the continued existence of
the hotel and spa business.

5) Operation of evaporation ponds in

the South Basin affects the lakeside
hotels 6) Land uses

❖ Differences in the natural setting and the ❖ Land use along the shore belt, where most
environmental conditions along the North of the dynamic changes are taking place,
and South basins of the Dead Sea generate is mostly allotted to tourism, and a small
a totally different situation. The South Basin part to farming. Most of the built-up areas,

ix
 industrial plants and tourist centers are far
from the shore, beyond the zone of latter-
day shore retreat.

❖ Nevertheless, the decline of water level

causes shorelines to retreat a considerable
distance from the tourist facilities and from
former beach access routes. Risk-free
shoreline access is one of the issues that
need imminent attention if safe beach
recreation is to be maintained.

❖ Land use plans at all levels were prepared

before the dynamic changes of the shore
belt had been recognized and investigated.
Consequently, some of the future
development areas overlap areas of land
failure and sinkhole risk.

❖ Potential areas of development which are

free of the limitations stemming from the
anticipated development of sinkholes have
been identified between the regions prone
to the emergence of sinkholes and the cliff
Escarpment.

In conclusion: understanding the implica-

tions and consequences of the existing
situation provides a basis for rethinking,
and for outlining principles and directives
regarding the future development of the
shores of the Dead Sea. These will enable
uninterrupted development and the reali-
zation of the region’s potential.

x
B. A new approach to planning

Conventional shoreline planning strives to This approach has significant advantages:

utilize the advantages offered by the water line,
❖ It links the features and qualities of the
and focuses on the longitudinal dimension.
Judean Desert to those of the Dead Sea,
Thus, previous plans for developing the Dead
with its uniqueness of being the lowest place
Sea shore recognized the value of shoreline
on the world’s continents.
proximity and emphasized a north-south,
shore-parallel axis hugging the water line. ❖ The view from the rim offers better
Present-day conditions cast doubt on the perspectives of the Dead Sea, including the
feasibility of those plans. Local infrastructure creeks and canyons of Moab on the
collapse and land failure together with the rapid opposite shore, views that are not available
receding shorelines have rendered them to visitors on the shore below.
questionable, if not obsolete. ❖ Shoreline constructions would be restricted
The findings presented in this paper highlight to appropriate localities, and controlled so
the problems. These tend to accumulate in the as not to spread north and southward along
wake of the retreating water line, by exposing the shores.
a steadily widening belt of sinkhole formation ❖ The east-west planning option minimizes
from the approximate -400 m topographic the use of subsidence and land failure —
contour downward (and eastward). These prone infrastructure. The shore will be
issues should prompt the need for a rethinking accessed only through a structurally safe
of the planning concept along the shoreline. road system. There will be no need to build
Our present recommendation, which needs and maintain major infrastructures along
further consideration, is that the classic north- these roads, where they cross into the
south, shore-parallel axis be replaced by an sinkhole and subsidence prone areas.
east-west, shore-perpendicular planning
concept, from the Rift escarpment in the west
The above approach may invigorate shoreline
to the waterline in the east - wherever it
plans, but these should nevertheless be based
happens to migrate.
in every case on reliable data concerning the
Such planning envisages the connection of physical infrastructure, in both local and
areas atop or just below the escarpment to regional context. It should also be borne in
sites at its base, which may extend to the lake’s mind that, apart from problems arising from the
shore. Along such an axis there would be decline in lake level, the entire Dead Sea region
opportunities for settlement and tourism, such is an area of high seismic risk, prone to ground
as lodgings and recreation facilities, and movement, sliding and subsidence. This
transverse infrastructures that would provide condition, not connected to the changing water
safe and easy access from the very rim of the level, must inevitably be taken into account in
escarpment to the beaches far below. any planning and building operation.

xi
C. Recommendations

1) The present document is intended for use 3) The Geological Survey of Israel will monitor
by the Statutory Planning Authorities, the changes in the physical infrastructure, and
Regional Councils and the Government will routinely update the maps of sinkhole
Departments responsible for infrastructures. risk and associated subsidence. The
The maps included in the report identify Geological Survey and an engineering
areas prone to the occurrence of sinkholes expert will also be consulted for the detailed
and subsidence. The Engineering Team of planning, in order to define the risk as
the Interministerial Committee on sinkholes accurately as possible on a local scale.
evaluated existing and future planning and
building in the region. A summary of the
team’s intermediate report as written is 4) A new regional master plan will be prepared
attached as an appendix to this document. for the western shores of the Dead Sea,
revising previous plans. A new planning
approach will be adopted, taking into
2) Each body that is responsible for any aspect account the dynamic changes in the
of engineering infrastructures and facilities substrate expected over the next 20 years,
(the regional councils, PWD, the Electric extending to 40 years from now.
Corporation, etc.) should carefully study the
Formulating the planning concept requires
areas demarcated as prone to substrate
examining alternatives, which include
failure. Since map resolution is not sufficient
directing future development to risk-free
for detailed site planning, the following
regions (the “white regions”) as shown on
measures should be undertaken:
the physical infrastructure maps. Planning
❖ Systematic identification of buildings, should also include recommendations for
stretches of road, agricultural uses, and developing infrastructures that will enable
other infrastructures that the maps show public access to the Sea at safe locations.
to be in land failure – prone areas,
together with an assessment of the
urgency of the risk. 5) Following the updated regional master plan,
the Ministry of Tourism and the regional
❖ Assessment of whether damage could councils will reexamine and update the
be prevented and preparations to existing master plan for lakeside tourism.
reinforce or replace the infrastructures
that are at immediate risk.
6) The Government will draft a conceptual plan
❖ Examination of alternatives, and ways for
that envisages the continued activity of the
vacating those sites where damage
Dead Sea’s mineral industries after the year
cannot be prevented or where prevention
of 2030 (when the Dead Sea Works’
is technically or financially unfeasible.
concession expires).
❖ Determination of the means, technical
and/or financial, by which either the
prevention or its alternatives can be put 7) The professional and statutory bodies that
into practice. deal with the regional water resources (the

xii
 Water Commission authority, drainage measures for changing the negative water
authorities, regional councils, and the balance of the Dead Sea and for restraining
Geological Survey) will keep the shoreline the emerging trends as described in this study.
springs, the ground water and the surface Included in the to-be-completed policy paper,
creeks under surveillance, and will design and in line with previous government decisions,
a system of surface drainage adapted to the are the studies of the implications of a sea-
rapid changes caused by the declining conduit (conveying water from the Red Sea or
water level. Attention should be paid to the the Mediterranean) and of restoring most of
overall factors that affect Dead Sea the natural flow (particularly of the Jordan and
hydrology, such as the intensive exploitation the Yarmuk) to the Dead Sea. This should be
of groundwater in the catchments area, and done parallel to the feasibility study of the Red
the discharge of effluents, treated and Sea — Dead Sea conduit (the “peace conduit”),
untreated, into its drainage basin. due to be undertaken by international
consultants under the auspices of the World
Bank.
8) The Nature and Parks Authority will keep a
surveillance of changes in the biota of
lakeside springs and oases, as related to
the declining water level. The Authority
should prepare measures for conserving
these habitats, especially the ponds that
may be breached as a consequence of
declining lake level which would damage
the special and rare natural habitat
dependent on them.

9) The Government will devise the institutional

administrative framework to ensure
coordination and budgeting of all the
required measures among the departments
concerned, according to their respective
responsibilities.

All who took part in preparing the current policy

paper on the future of the Dead Sea call on
the government to implement the above
recommendations immediately, since, as
noted, the present processes and the entailed
risks will continue to exist for at least 20-30
years. This notwithstanding, a long-term
assessment is needed for times beyond 30
years, of possible measures to change the
trend of decline in the water level under
different alternatives. Hence, the government
should encourage completion of the policy
paper by an assessment of the possible

xiii