Addis Ababa University

Addis Ababa Institute of Technology

Probability and Random Process (ECEG 2113)

Chapter 1: Basic Concepts of Probability Theory

Basic Concepts of Probability Theory
Outline
 Introduction
 Sample Space and Events
 Basic Set Operations
 Axioms and Properties of Probability
 Conditional Probability
 Independence of Events
 Counting

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Introduction
What is probability?
Probability is a branch of Mathematics that deals with calculating
the likelihood of a given event’s occurrence.

Probabilistic Models
A probabilistic model is a mathematical description of an
uncertain situation.
Its two main ingredients are
1. Sample Space
2. The Probability Law

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Sample Space and Events
i. Random Experiment
 A random experiment is an experiment in which the outcome
varies in an unpredictable manner when the experiment is
repeated under the same conditions.
Examples:
• Tossing a coin
• Rolling a die
• Picking a card from a deck

ii. Sample Space

 The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a
random experiment.
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Sample Space and Events Cont’d….

 The sample space is denoted by Ω and the possible outcomes

are represented by  i
  {1 , 2 , ......n }
iii. Event
 An event is any subset of the sample of the sample space, Ω
 Events can be represented by A, B, C, ……
Example-1:
Consider a random experiment of rolling a die once.
i. Sample Space
  {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
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Sample Space and Events Cont’d….
ii. Some possible events
 An event of obtaining even numbers
A  {2, 4, 6}

 An event of obtaining numbers less than 4

B  {1, 2, 3}

Example-2:
Consider a random experiment of flipping a fair coin twice.
i. Sample space
  {HH , HT, TH, TT }

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Sample Space and Events Cont’d….

ii. Some possible events

 An event of getting exactly one head
A  {HT , TH }

 An event of getting at least one tail

B  {HT , TH, TT }

 An event of getting at most one tail

C  {HH , HT , TH }

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 Basic Set Operations
 Probability makes extensive use of set operations.
 We can combine events using set operations to obtain other events.
1. Union
The union of two events A and B is defined as the set of outcomes
that are either in A or B or both and is denoted by A  B.
A  B  { :   A or   B}  A  B  { :   A    B}
Ω

A B

E F

AB

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 Basic Set Operations Cont’d…..
2. Intersection
The intersection of two events A and B is defined as the set of
outcomes that are common to both A and B and is denoted by
A  B.

A  B  { :   A and   B}  A  B  { :   A    B}

A B

AB

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Basic Set Operations Cont’d…..
3. Complement
The complement of an event A is defined as the set of all
outcomes that are not in A and is denoted by A.

A  { :    and   A}  A  { :       A}
Ω

EA A

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 Basic Set Operations Cont’d…..
4. Mutually Exclusive (Disjoint) Events
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint
if A and B have no elements in common, i.e., A  B  

A B

A B  

5. Equal Events
Two events A and B are said to equal if they contain the same
outcomes and is denoted by A=B.

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 Some Properties of Set Operations
1. Elementary Properties
i.    v. A  A  
ii.    vi. A  A  
iii.   A   vii. A  A
iv.   A  A
2. Commutative Properties
A B  B  A
A B  B  A
3. Associative Properties
A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  C
A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  C

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Some Properties of Set Operations Cont’d…..
4. Distributive Properties
A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  ( A  C )
A  ( B  C )  ( A  B)  ( A  C )
5. DeMorgan’s Rules
( A  B)  A  B
( A  B)  A  B

 The union and intersection operations can be repeated for an

arbitrary number of events as follows.
n

A i  A1  A2  ....  An
i 1
n

A i  A1  A2  ...  An
i 1

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Axioms and Properties of Probability
 Probability is a rule that assigns a number to each event A in the
sample space, Ω.

 If all the possible outcomes are equally likely, the probability of

any event A is given by
n( A)
P ( A) 
n ()
where
n( A) - is the number of elements in the event A
n() - is the number of elements in the sample space 

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 Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..

 The probability of an event A is a real number which satisfies the

following axioms.
1. (Nonnegativity) Probability is a non-negative number, i.e.,
P( A)  0
2. (Normalization) Probability of the whole set is unity, i.e.,
P ()  1
From axioms (1) and (2), we obtain
0  P( A)  1

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..

3. (Additivity) Probability of the union of two mutually

exclusive (disjoint) events is the sum of the probability of the
events, i.e.,
If A  B  , then P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
 We can generalize axiom (3) for n pairwise mutually
exclusive (disjoint) events.
 If A1, A2, A3, …, An is a sequence of n pairwise mutually
exclusive (disjoint) events in the sample space Ω such that

 n  n
Ai  Aj  , for i  j, then P  Ai    P( Ai )
 i 1  i 1
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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
 By using the above probability axioms, other useful
properties of probability can be obtained.

1. P( A)  1  P( A)
Proof:

A  A    P( A  A)  P( A)  P( A), but A  A  
 P()  P( A)  P( A), P()  P( A  A)
 1  P( A)  P( A), P()  1
 P( A)  1  P( A)

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
 We can decompose the events A, B and AUB as unions of
mutually exclusive (disjoint) events as follows.

A B

A B A B A B

We can see that A  B, A  B and A  B are disjoint events.

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..

 From the above Venn diagram, we can write the following

relations.
i. A  ( A  B)  ( A  B) ii. B  ( A  B)  ( A  B)

 P ( A)  P ( A  B )  P ( A  B )  P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A  B)
 P( A  B)  P( B)  P( A  B)
 P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( A  B )

iv. A  B  B  ( A  B)
iii. A  B  A  ( A  B)
 P( A  B)  P( B)  P( A  B)
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( A  B)

v. A  B  ( A  B)  ( A  B)  ( A  B)
 P( A  B)  P( A  B)  P( A  B)  P( A  B)

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..

2. P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )

Proof:
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( A  B)
But, P( A  B)  P( B)  P( A  B)
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

 We can generalize the above property for three events A, B and C

as follows.
P ( A  B  C )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P (C )  P ( A  B )  P ( A  C )  P ( B  C )
 P( A  B  C )

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..

 For n events A1, A2, A3,…,An the above property can be

generalized as:
 n  n n
P  Ai    P( A j )   P( A j  Ak )  ....  (1) n P( A1  A2  ...  An )
 i 1  j 1 j k

3. P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)

Proof:
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
But, P( A  B)  0
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Example-1:
A box contains 10 identical balls numbered 0, 1, 2,…,9. A single
ball is selected from the box at random. Consider the following
events.
A: number of ball selected is odd
B: number of ball selected is multiple of 3
C: number of ball selected is less than 5
Find the following probabilities.
a. P( A) d. P( A  B)
b. P( B) e. P( A  B  C )
c. P(C )
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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Solution:
 The sample space and the events are given by:

  {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} C  {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}
A  {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} A  B  {3, 9}
B  {3, 6, 9} A  B  C  {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9}

 The number of elements in the sample space and events are:

n()  10 n(C )  5
n( A)  5 n( A  B )  2
n( B )  3 n( A  B  C )  9

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
 Thus, probabilities of the given events are given by:
n( A) 5 1 n( A  B ) 2 1
a. P( A)    d . P( A  B)   
n() 10 2 n () 10 5
n( B ) 3 n( A  B  C ) 9
b. P( B)   e. P( A  B  C )  
n() 10 n ( ) 10
n(C ) 5 1
c. P(C )   
n() 10 2
Example-2:
Given P( A)  0.9, P( B)  0.8 and P( A  B)  0.75, find :
a. P( A  B) c. P( A  B) e. P( A  B)
b. P( A  B) d . P( A  B) f . P( B)

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Solution:
a. P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) d . P( A  B)  P( A  B)  1  P( A  B)
 P( A  B)  0.9  0.8  0.75  P( A  B)  1  0.75
 P( A  B)  0.95  P( A  B)  0.25

b. P( A  B)  P( A)  P( A  B) e. P ( A  B )  1  P ( A)  P( A  B )
 P( A  B)  0.9  0.75  P ( A  B )  1  0.9  0.75
 P( A  B)  0.15  P ( A  B )  0.85

c. P ( A  B)  P( A  B )  1  P( A  B) f . P( B)  1  P( B)
 P( A  B )  1  0.95  P ( B )  1  0.8
 P ( A  B)  0.05  P ( B )  0.2

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Axioms and Properties of Probability Cont’d…..
Exercise:
1. If A  B  , then show that P( A)  P( B).
2. If P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B), then show that
P[( A  B)  ( A  B)]  0.
3. If P( A)  P( B)  1, then show that P( A  B)  1.
4. If P( A)  0.9 and P( B)  0.8, then show that P( A  B)  0.7

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Conditional Probability
• Conditional probability provides us with a way to reason
about the outcome of an experiment, based on partial
information.
Example
• (a) In an experiment involving two successive rolls of a
die, you are told that the sum of the two rolls is 9. How
likely is it that the first roll was a 6?
• (b) In a word guessing game, the first letter of the word is
a “q”. What is the likelihood that the second letter is an
“u”?
• (c) How likely is it that a person has a disease given that a
medical test was negative?

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Conditional Probability
 The conditional probability of an event A given B, denoted by
P(A|B), is defined as:
P( A  B)
P( A | B)  , P( B)  0 (1)
P( B)

 Similarly, the conditional probability of an event B given A,

denoted by P(B|A), is given by
P( A  B)
P( A | B)  , P( B)  0 (2)
P( B)

 From equations (1) and (2), we will get

P( A  B)  P( A | B) P( B)  P( B | A) P( A) (3)

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Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
 Then using equation (3), we will get

P( B | A) P( A) P( A | B) P( B)
P( A | B)  OR P( B | A)  (4)
P( B) P( A)

 We know that
P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A  B)
 P( B)  P( B | A) P( A)  P( B | A) P( A) (5)

 Substituting equation (5) into equation (4), we will get

P ( B | A) P ( A)
P( A | B)  (6)
P ( B | A) P ( A)  P ( B | A) P ( A)

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Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
 Similarly,
P( A | B) P( B)
P ( B | A)  (7)
P( A | B) P( B)  P( A | B) P( B)

 Equations (6) and (7) are known as Baye’s Rule.

 Baye’s Rule can be extended for n events as follows.
 Let events A1, A2, A3, …, An be pairwise mutually exclusive
(disjoint ) events and their union be the sample space Ω, i.e.
n
Ai  A j   and A  i
i 1

 n  n
 P  Ai    P( Ai )
 i 1  i 1
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Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
 Let B be any event in Ω as shown below.

A2 .....
A1 An 1

B
A3 ..... An

B  B  ( A1  A2  ....  An )

 B  ( B  A1 )  ( B  A2 )  ...  ( B  An )

But, Ai  A j    ( B  Ai )  ( B  A j )  

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Conditional Probability Cont’d…….
 The events B  Ai and B  A j are mutually exclusive events.

 P( B)  P( B  A1 )  P( B  A2 )  ...  P( B  An )
 P( B)  P( B | A1 ) P( A1 )  P( B | A2 ) P( A2 )  ...  P( B | An ) P( An ) (8)

 Total Probability Theorem

n n
P ( B )   P ( B  Ai )   P ( B | Ai ) P ( Ai ) (9)
i 1 i 1

 Then using equation (4), we will obtain

P ( B | Ai ) P ( Ai )
P ( Ai | B)  n
(10)
 P( B | A ) P( A )
i 1
i i

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Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Example-1:
Show that P( A | B)  1  P( A | B)

Solution:

P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A  B)
 P( B)  P( A | B) P( B)  P( A | B) P( B)
Dividing both sides by P( B), we obtain
1  P( A | B)  P( A | B)
 P( A | B)  1  P( A | B)

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Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Example-2:
Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=x, P(B)=y and
P(B|A)=z. Find the following probabilities in terms of x, y and z.
a. P ( A | B )
b. P ( A  B )
c. P ( A | B )
Solution:
P( A  B)  P( B / A) P( A)  xz
P( A  B) xz
a. P( A | B)  
P( B) y
b. P( A  B)  P( A  B)  1  P( A  B)  1  xz
P( A  B) P( B)  P( A  B) xz
c. P( A | B)    1
P( B) P( B) y
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Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Example-3:

A box contains two black and three white balls. Two balls are
selected at random from the box without replacement. Find the
probability that

a. both balls are black

b. the second ball is white

Solution:

First let us define the events as follows:

B1 : the outcome in the first selectionis a black ball
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Conditional Probability Cont’d…..

B2 : the outcome in the second selectionis a black ball

W1 : the outcome in the first selectionis a white ball
W2 : the outcomein the second selectionis a black ball
P ( B1 )  2 / 5 P( B2 | B1 )  1 / 4 P(W2 | B1 )  3 / 4
P (W1 )  3 / 5 P( B2 | W1 )  2 / 4 P(W2 | W1 )  2 / 4

a. P ( B1  B2 )  P ( B2 |B1 ) P ( B1 )  (1 / 4)(2 / 5)
 P ( B1  B2 )  1 / 10
b. P (W2 )  P (W2  B1 )  P (W2  W1 )
 P (W2 | B1 ) P ( B1 )  P (W2 | W1 ) P (W1 )
 (3 / 4)(2 / 5)  ( 2 / 4)(3 / 5)
 P (W2 )  3 / 5
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Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Example-4:

Box A contains 100 bulbs of which 10% are defective. Box B

contains 200 bulbs of which 5% are defective. A bulb is
picked from a randomly selected box.

a. Find the probability that the bulb is defective

b. Assuming that the bulb is defective, find the probability

that it came from box A.

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 37

Conditional Probability Cont’d…..

Solution:
First let us define the events as follows.
A : Box A is selected

P( A)  P( B)  1 / 2
B : Box B is selected P( D / A)  1 / 10
D : Bulb is defective P( D / B)  1 / 20

a. P( D)  P( D | A) P( A)  P( D | B) P( B)
 (1 / 10)(1 / 2)  (1 / 20)(1 / 20)
 P( D)  3 / 40
P( D | A) P( A) 1 / 20
b. P( A | D)    (1 / 20)(40 / 3)
P( D) 3 / 40
 P( A | D)  2 / 3

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 38

Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Example-5:

One bag contains 4 white and 3 black balls and a second bag
contains 3 white and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the
first bag and placed in the second bag unseen and then one ball
is drawn from the second bag. What is the probability that it is
a black ball?

Solution:

First let us define the events as follows.

B1 : black ball is drawn from the first bag
W1 : white ball is drawn from the first bag
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Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
B2 : black ball is drawn from the second bag
W2 : white ball is drawn from the second bag

Then, we will have:

P( B1 )  3 / 7 P( B2 / B1 )  6 / 9 P( B2 / W1 )  5 / 9

P(W1 )  4 / 7 P(W2 / B1 )  3 / 9 P(W2 / W1 )  4 / 9

P( B2 )  P( B2  B1 )  P( B2  W1 )
 P( B2 )  P( B2 | B1 ) P( B1 )  P( B2 | W1 ) P(W1 )
 P( B2 )  (6 / 9)(3 / 7)  (5 / 9)(4 / 7)
 P( B2 )  28 / 63

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 40

Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
Exercise:
1. For three events A, B and C, show that:
a. P[( A  B ) / C ]  P[ A | ( B  C )]P ( B | C )
b. P ( A  B  C )  P[ A | ( B  C )]P ( B | C ) P (C )
2. Box A contains 3 white and 2 red balls while another box B
contains 2 red and 5 white balls. A ball drawn at random from
one of the boxes turns out to be red. What is the probability that
it came from box A?

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 41

 Conditional Probability Cont’d…..
3. In a certain assembly plant, three machine A, B and C make
30%, 45% and 25% of the products respectively. It is known
that 2%, 3% and 5% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected.
a. What is the probability that it is defective?
b. If the product is known to be defective, what is the
probability that it is made by machine A?

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 42

Independence of Events
 Two events A and B are said to be statistically independent if
and only if
P ( A  B )  P ( A) P ( B )

 Similarly, three events A, B and C are said to be statistically

independent if and only if
P ( A  B  C )  P ( A) P ( B ) P (C )

 Generally, if A1, A2, …, An are a sequence of independent

events, then
 n  n
P  Ai    P ( Ai )
 i 1  i 1

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Independence of Events Cont’d……
 If A and B are independent, then we have
P ( A  B ) P ( A) P ( B )
i. P ( A | B )    P ( A)
P( B) P( B)
 P ( A | B )  P ( A)
P ( A  B ) P ( A) P ( B )
ii. P ( B | A)    P( B)
P ( A) P ( A)
 P ( B | A)  P ( B )

Example-1:

If A and B are independent, then show that A and B are also

independent.

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 44

Independence of Events Cont’d……
Solution:
P( A)  P( A  B)  P( A  B)
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( A  B)  P( A)  P( A) P( B)
 P( A  B)  P( A)[1  P( B)]  P( A) P( B)
 By the definition of independent events, A and B are independent.

Example-2:
The probability that a husband and a wife will be alive 90 years
from now are given by 0.8 and 0.9 respectively. Find the
probability that in 90 years
a. both will be alive c. at least one will be alive
b. neither will be alive
Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 45
Independence of Events Cont’d……
Solution:
• First let us define the events as follows.

H : Husband will be alive

W : Wife will be alive

• Then we will have

P( H )  0.8  P( H )  1  P( H )  1  0.8  0.2

P(W )  0.9  P(W )  1  P(W )  1  0.9  0.1

• The two events can be considered as independent.

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 46

Independence of Events Cont’d……
Solution:
a. P(both)  P ( H  W )  P ( H ) P (W )

 P (both)  P( H  W )  (0.8)(0.9)

 P(both)  P ( H  W )  0.72

b. P (neither)  P ( H  W )  P ( H ) P (W )

 P (neither)  P( H  W )  (0.2)(0.1)

 P(neither)  P ( H  B)  0.02

c. P(at least one)  1  P(neither)

 P (at least one)  1  0.02

 P(at least one)  0.98

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 47
Counting
The Counting Principle
Consider a process that consists of r stages. Suppose that:

(a) There are n1 possible results for the first stage.

(b) For every possible result of the first stage, there are n2 possible
results at the second stage.

(c) More generally, for all possible results of the first i - 1 stages,
there are ni possible results at the ith stage.

Then, the total number of possible results of the r-stage process is

n1 · n2 · · · nr.
Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 48
Counting Cont’d….
• Example. The number of telephone numbers.
A telephone number is a 10-digit sequence, but
the first digit has to be different from 0 or 1. How
many distinct telephone numbers are there?

We have a total of 7 stages, and a choice of one out of

10 elements at each stage, except for the first stage
where we only have 8 choices. Therefore, the answer is

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Counting Cont’d….
K-Permutation
We start with n distinct objects, and let k be some positive
integer, with k ≤ n. We wish to count the number of
different ways that we can pick k out of these n objects
and arrange them in a sequence, i.e., the number of
distinct k-object sequences.
By the Counting Principle, the number of possible
sequences, called k-permutations, is

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 50

Counting Cont’d….
Example
Let us count the number of words that consist of four
distinct letters. This is the problem of counting the number
of 4-permutations of the 26 letters in the alphabet. The
desired number is

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 51

Counting Cont’d….
Combinations
Combinations without Repetition
Suppose you want to form a committee of r people from a
total of n number of people where r<n. Here the order of
the committee members doesn’t matter.
Example: Form a committee of 2 from the following
people (Abebe, Beza, Chala, Danawit)
6 Distinct committees -> (AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD)
The Formula is

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Counting Cont’d….
Combinations
Combinations with Repetition
Let’s say there are five flavors of icecream: banana,
chocolate, lemon, strawberry and vanilla.
We can have three scoops. How many variations will there
be? Example selection include {c,c,c} {b,l,v} {b,v,v},…
There are n=5 things to chose from, and we choose r=3 of
them. Order does not matter and we can repeat.
Number of distinct choices =

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Assignment-I

1. Show that the probability that exactly one of the events A or B

occurs is given by:
P( A)  P( B )  2 P( A  B)
2. If A and B are mutually exclusive events and P(A)=0.29,
P(B)=0.43, then find P ( A  B ).
3. A box contains 3 double-headed coins, 2 double-tailed coins
and 5 normal coins. A single coin is selected at random from
the box and flipped.
a. What is the probability that it shows a head?
b. Given that a head is shown, what is the probability that it is
the normal coin?

Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 54

Assignment-I
4. The probability that a husband watches a certain television
show is 0.4 and the probability that a wife watches the show is
0.5. The probability that a husband watches the show given that
his wife does is 0.7. Find the probability that
a. both of them watch the show
b. a wife watches the show given that her husband does
c. at least one of them watch the show
5. In a shooting test, the probability of hitting the target is 1/2 for
A , 2/3 for B and 3/4 for C. If all of them fire at the target, find
the probability that
a. none of them hits the target
b. at most two of them hit the target
Semester-I, 2017 By Habib M. 55