DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAN-MADE ANTHROPOGENIC EARTHQUAKES VS.

TECTONIC EARTHQUAKES

Earthquakes happen naturally, without any form of human intervention. Tectonic stress
changes, fluid migration in the crust, Earth tides, surface ice and snow loading, heavy
precipitation, atmospheric pressure changes, sediment unloading, and groundwater loss are the
various forms of natural processes that has influenced the spatial and temporal occurrence of
earthquakes (Kundu et al., 2015). These processes cause minor changes in stress along any pre-
existing faults. The critical process of rock failures occurs as a result on any earthquake, and
the cumulative effect of the earthquake nucleation leads to further increment in the stress
changes causing future earthquakes (Braun et al., 2018). Furthermore, a wide range of human
activities, such as reservoir filling, mining, geothermal energy extraction, and others, have also
been linked to earthquakes. The mechanics of industrial activities also alter the amount of stress
in the Earth's crust, disrupting the balanced forces that keep faults from slipping (Folger and
Teimann, 2016). Once those forces are out of balance, the fault unlocks and slips, sending
shock waves out from the fault that may reach the surface and be felt or cause damage (Braun
et al, 2018). As a result, it is not surprising that anthropogenic activities that modify stress in
the crust, even slightly, modulating seismicity (Foulger et al., 2018). Scientists currently have
limited ability to predict human-caused earthquakes due to a variety of factors, including
uncertainty about the state of stress in the earth, rudimentary knowledge of how injected fluids
flow underground after injection, poor knowledge of faults that could potentially slip and cause
earthquakes, and limited networks of seismometers (instruments used to measure seismicity).
However, McGarr et al. (2002) classified 3 terms: "induced" for earthquakes where the
anthropogenic stress change is comparable to the shear stress causing a fault to slip, "triggered"
where the anthropogenic stress change is much smaller, and "stimulated" where there is
insufficient data to make the distinction.

It is deduced that many, if not all, earthquakes caused by human activity release more stress
than is added to the crust artificially, only a fraction of total strain energy is relieved
seismically, but determining that fraction is difficult. Even large earthquakes may not release
all of the stress on a fault, restricting the potential to predict long-term stress build up in the
crust. The strength of evidence for earthquake induction varies significantly between cases
(Folger and Tiemann, 2016). It is therefore desirable to know whether an earthquake was
natural or induced, but also to forecast which projects may be seismogenic in the future and
the magnitude of the hazard. Various schemes have been proposed in the past to determine
whether earthquakes are natural or induced. Davis and Frohlich (1993) proposed several
objectives to scrutinize when profiling a seismic sequence to determine whether it was induced
or not. Regardless of any known history of earthquakes/seismicity, induced earthquakes have
now been proposed to occur in both seismic and non-seismic regions. Evidence from borehole
studies reveals that faults are on the verge of failure everywhere. The induction activity has a
temporal relationship. Delays in the onset of seismicity varies between immediate to several
decades. Close proximity of a few kilometres ~25 km is found in the case of injection-related
earthquakes, while geological structures identified with the ability to channel flow are a
prominent feature thought to cause an earthquake. Significant changes in stress have been
observed, with earthquakes linked to stress fluctuations as tiny as a few kPa (Foulger, et al,
2018) to ~1 MPa at the bottom of 100 m deep reservoir (McGarr et al. (2002).

Simple criteria for determining whether or not an earthquake is induced are elusive. The
circumstances of each case are extremely diverse. Induction activities are hypothesised to take
place over time spans ranging from a few minutes to decades. The volumes of material added
or removed vary by many orders of magnitude, and the maximum magnitude of induced events
ranges from between 0 < M < 8. Case studies of the earthquake seismicity across the decade
reveals several unusual features in association with earthquakes suspected of being induced
(Foulger et al, 2018).

1. Shallow focal depths (e.g., the 2011 MW 5.1 Lorca, Spain, earthquake);
2. Revelation of previously unknown faults (“blind faults”; e.g., in the Cogdell oilfield, Texas);
3. Similar pattern of release of stress oriented in the same sense as the regional structures (e.g.,
in Oklahoma);
4. Occurrence of the largest earthquake after the cessation of the induction activity suggesting
the significance of the fluid diffusion as in the case of Denver earthquakes occurring between
1962-1968.
5. Reactivation of fault (beneath hydrocarbon reservoirs, e.g., the Coalinga, California,
earthquake).

Several questions are raised by these observations. For example, if induced seismicity is
common on previously unknown faults, could extensive subsurface mapping prior to
operations reduce hazard? However, since the crust is presumed to be pervasively faulted and
on the verge of failure almost everywhere, it is not certain if subsurface mapping would be
effective in prevention (Foulger et al., 2018). Perhaps every region should be considered
potentially seismogenic. Also, if large earthquakes occur after operations have ceased, how
long should seismic hazard mitigation measures be maintained after a project's completion?
Hence, more sustainable and reliable ways of discriminating between man-induced and
tectonic earthquakes should include potential answers to the below stated observations:
1. Spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes closely following the duration of the
period of injection and the close proximity to the point of injection as in the case of
triggered earthquakes by artificial water reservoirs, e.g, earthquakes around Koyna,
India or the Aswan Lake in Egypt (Gupta, 2002, McGarr et al., 2002).
2. Concurrence of the earthquake location in the previously aseismic region.
3. Coincidence of the earthquake with collapse of mine gallery or ground rupture
associated with nuclear test, for example the seismicity in deep gold mines in South
Africa (Richardson et al., 2002).
4. Based on complete analysis of the earthquakes focal mechanism that discriminates
between natural, shear faulting and volumetric mining collapses as attempted by
McGarr (1992a, 1992b) and Dreger et al, 2008 for earthquakes recorded in South
African gold mines and mine collapse in Crandall Canyon mine in Utah.

Distinction between induced and natural seismicity can be drawn based on statistical features
such as high rate of background events and faster aftershock decay based as proposed by
Zaliapin and Ben-Zoin, 2016.
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