Iullemeden Aquifer System

Iullemeden Aquifer System

Volume I – Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Mali - Niger - Nigeria

The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis approach, advocated by the GEF for International
Niamey
Waters, was applied to the water resources of the Iullemeden Aquifer System. It is a first
on the African continent.
It is an objective assessment of scientific and technical facts based mainly on using the
best information available and checked. It is made of trans-sectional manner, focusing on
transboundary issues without ignoring national concerns and priorities. The TDA is used to
determine the relative importance of the sources, causes and impacts on transboundary
issues in water. Its objectives are:
 to identify, to quantify and to set priorities for environmental problems that are trans-
boundary in nature;
 to identify their immediate, underlying and root causes.

Volume I
The main steps of the TDA are: 1) the analysis of impacts and consequences of each
transboundary issue, 2) the final prioritization of transboundary issues, 3) the causal chain
transBOUNDARY diagnostiC AnalysIS
analysis and governance analysis, 4) the production and the adoption of the full document
of the ADT by the Steering Committee.
Through TDA, three major transboundary risks have been identified: (a) the decrease of
the water resource, (b) the degradation of water quality, and (c) the impacts of climate
variability / change. This activity obviously required the development of a database of more
than 17 200 water points, a Geographic Information System and a mathematical model.
This mathematical model, among others, highlighted the overexploitation since 1995 and
an interconnection between the Niger River and groundwater.
In the interest of good governance of this common strategic resource, countries have
adopted a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a legal and consultative framework
for joint management and for rational and equitable exploitation

Volume II: Common database Volume III: Hydrogeological Model

Volume IV: Participatory management of Volume V: Monitoring & Evaluation of
transboundary risks transboundary aquifers

Partners Edited
with the financial support of
Mali IAEA ESA FAO

Niger United Nations

Educational, Scientific and
International
Hydrological
Cultural Organization Programme

Nigeria GEF Unesco UNEP

Sahara and Sahel Observatory

Bd du Leader Y. Arafat, BP 31, 1080 Tunis Carthage, Tunisia
Tel. : (+216).71.206.633 - Fax : (+216).71.206.636
URL : www.oss-online.org - Email : boc@oss.org.tn I SAHARA AND SAHEL OBSERVATORY
Iullemeden Aquifer System
Mali - Niger - Nigeria

Volume I

Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis

Tunis, 2011
 Other documents (IAS)
Volume II : Common Database
Volume III : Hydrogeological Model
Volume IV : Participatory management transboundary risks
Volume V : Monitoring & Evaluation of transboundary aquifers

Copyright © Sahara ans Sahel Observatory (OSS), 2011

Edited in Tunis with the financial suppot of Unesco/IHP and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internatio-
nale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

ISBN : 978-9973-856-51-7
Acknowledgements
This document was reviewed and edited under the supervision of M. Chedli Fezzani, the Execu-
tive Secretary of the Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS). It emanates from the work lead from
January 2004 to June 2009, by the OSS permanent staff of the project “the Iullemeden Aquifer
System”, in partnership with Mali, Niger and Nigeria, under the scientific and technical coordina-
tion of M. Abdel Kader Dodo.
The OSS project team is composed of M. Abdelkader Dodo the Regional Project Coordinator, M.
Mohamedou Ould Baba Sy, Expert in database, GIS and groundwater modelling, Ahmed Mamou,
Scientific advisor and Wafa Jouini, Assistant of OSS Water program. This work is the success of
their combined efforts.
We express our deep gratitude to the personalities who contributed in this work, especially:

MALI
National Committees for coordination &  Pr Amadou Zanga TRAORE, Ecole nationale d’in-
monitoring génieurs
 Mme Ly Fatoumata, Directrice nationale de l’hy-  M Tiétlé FOMBA, Chef du Centre de documenta-
draulique tion et d’informatique
 M. Malick Alhousseini, Ex-Directeur national de  M. Abdoulaye KONE, Directeur du laboratoire DNH
l’hydraulique, actuellement Conseiller du minis-  M. Yaya Boubacar, DRHE de Gao
tre des Transports  M. Bandia CISSOKO, DRHE, Bamako
 Amadou Guindo, Ex-Directeur adjoint, Conseiller  M. Mohamed KEITA, Conseiller juridique MMEE
technique du ministre de l’Energie et de l’Eau  Dr Souleymane SIDIBE, Hydrologue, DNH
 M. Sidi TOURE Chef de division Inventaire des
ressources hydrauliques National Consultants
 M. Séïdou MAIGA IRH/DNH, Point focal national  Pr Adama MARIKO, Ecole nationale d’ingénieurs
 M. Baréma THIERO Chef de division Hydraulique  Feu Me Tignougou SANOGO, Consultant juriste
rurale  Ibrahima CISSE, Consultant socio-économiste
 Damassa Bouaré, Responsable de la Base de  Amadou MAÏGA, Consultant environnementaliste
données de DNH,  Madia SIDORO, Consultant hydrogéologue

NIGER
National Committees for coordination &  Abdoul Aziz OUMAR, ministère du Développe-
monitoring
ment agricole
 Dr. Abdou GUERO, Ex-Directeur national des res-
 Moussa AMADOU, ministère du Développement
sources en eau, actuellement Directeur techni-
agricole
que à l’Autorité du bassin du Niger (ABN)
 Radji GARBA, Hydrologue, Directeur national National Consultants
des ressources en eau
 Sanoussi RABE, Hydrogéologue
 Abdou Moumouni MOUSSA, Hydrogéologue, ex-
 Dr Kaïgama Kiari Noudjia, Juriste, actuellement
Point focal national, actuellement en Thèse de
Directeur national de la législation
doctorat (Ph. D)
 Attahirou Ibrahim Karbo, spécialiste Ressources
 Sanoussi RABE, Hydrogéologue
en eau
 Issa ADA, Direction de l’environnement
 Rouscoua Aboubacar, Socio-économiste
 Manou TOUDOU, ministère des Affaires Etran-
 Manou TOUDOU, Juriste
gères
 NIGERIA
National Committees for coordination &  Stephan .M. Jabo, ACHg. FMWR, Abuja
monitoring  S.M. Babarinde, Prin. Hydrogeologist, FMWR,
 Feu Engr. M. H. Ibrahim, Director, Federal Minis- Abuja
try of Water Resources (FMWR), Abuja National Consultants
 John Chabo, National focal, Deputy Director,
 Prof. L.J. Goldface-Irokalibe as the national
FMWR, Abuja, now Executive Director of Nigeria
consultant
Hydrological Services Agency (NHSA)
 Dr. S. Toro as the National Consultant on water
 C.M. Maduabuchi , (GIA) FMWR, Abuja resources
 Patrick Oburo, Assistant Director, FMWR,  Mr. J.A. Hanidu. The draft report of the TDA
Abuja Consultant
 Simon O. Okpara, Hydrogeologist, FMWR, Abuja  Prof. Charles A. OKUOFU, Environmentalist
 Salisu G. Dandume, Deputy Director, FMWR,  Prof. Illiya Climate change/variability
Abuja  Dr. J.A.Adams Socio-Economy

International Consultants
 Mrs Marcella NANNI, Juriste
 Dr. Bo Gunnar APPELGREN, Expert en ressources en eau
 Dr. PIZZI Giuseppe, Expert in modelling
 Abdous Belcacem, Expert in database

We express our deep gratitude to our partners for their financial, scientific and technical support:
PARTNerS
 Takehiro Nakamura, UNEP/GEF
 Alice Aureli, Unesco
 Dr Stefano Burchi, FAO
 Espen Golden, ESA

We also thank the UNESCO/IHP and GIZ for their financial support in publishing this document,
as well as France, Switzerland, AWF/ADB and the NBA for their continued support to the
Water Programme of OSS.

We are also indebted to Mrs Tharouet Elamri who undertook the design of the model and the
finalization of this document not to mention the financial and administrative team have spared no
effort for the successful implementation of all activities this project.

Water Programme coordinator Executive Secretary

Abdelkader Dodo Dr. Chedli Fezzani

Contents
I. INTRODUCTION 9

II. GENERAL FRAMEWORK 11

II.1. Brief overview of the GEF process: From the Transboundary Diagnostic
Analysis (TDA) to the Strategic Action Programme (SAP) 11

III. MAIN FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM 19

III.1. Physical and Climatic Context of the Iullemeden Aquifer System 19

III.2. Socio-economic context 22
III.3. Legal and legislative water resources management framework 23
III.4. Water Resources 23
III.5. Land Degradation 25
III.6. Paradox of the African continent 27

IV. ELEMENTS OF THE TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS 29

IV.1. Availability of Data 29

IV.2. Overview of the Mali Databases 29
IV.3. Overview of the Niger Databases 30
IV.4. Overview of the Nigeria Databases 32

V. HYDRO-GEOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE IULLEMEDEN AQUIFER SYS-

TEM 33

V.1. The Continental intercalaire 36

V.2. The Continental Terminal 37

VI. IDENTIFICATION AND “PRIORITISATION” OF TRANSBORDARY ISSUES

41

VI.1. Impact of Climate Variability and Change 41

VI.2. Deforestation 41
VI.3. Exploitation of Water Resources 42
VI.4. Decline of Artesianism 42
VI.5. Water Pollution 42
VI.6. Soil Salinisation 43
VI.7. Non Concerted Exploitation of Water Resources 43

VII. FINAL DETAILED PRIORITISATION OF TRANSBOUNDARY ISSUES 47

 VIII. ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES 49

VIII.1. Analysis of environmental impacts 49

VIII.2. Analysis of socio-economic consequences 52

IX. CARTOGRAPHY OF MAJOR RISKS 57

X. CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS 59

X.1. Immediate causes 59

X.2. Underlying causes 63
X.3. Root causes 74

XI. MITIGATION OF TRANSBOUNDARY RISKS 89

XII. CONCLUSION 91
LIST OF ACRONYMS/Abbreviations
ABN Autorité du bassin du Niger
ABV Autorité du bassin de la Volta
ACDI Agence canadienne de développement international
ACMAD African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development
ADT Analyse diagnostique transfrontalière
AIEA Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique
AMCOW African Ministers’ Council on Water
ASAR Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar
ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection
BAD Banque africaine de développement
BGR Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (Institut Fédéral des Géos-
ciences et des Ressources Naturelles)
BRGM Bureau des recherches géologiques et minières
CCNUCC Convention-cadre des Nations unies pour les changements climatiques
CCRE Centre de coordination des ressources en eau de la CEDEAO
CEDEAO Communauté économique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest
CEN-SAD Communauté des Etats sahélo-sahariens
Ci Continental intercalaire
CILSS Comité inter-Etats de lutte contre la sécheresse au Sahel
CNCS Comité national de coordination et de suivi des activités
CRA Centre régional Agrhymet
CT Continental Terminal
DDC-Suisse Direction du développement et de la coopération - Suisse
DSRP Document de stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté
ENVISAT ENVIronment SATellite
ERS European Remote Sensing Satellite
ESA European Space Agency (Agence Spatiale Européenne)
FAE Facilité africaine de l’eau
FAO Organisation des Nations unies pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture
FEM Fonds pour l’environnement mondial
FFEM Fonds français pour l’environnement mondial
FIDA Fonds international pour le développement agricole
GEF Global Environment Facility
GIRE Gestion intégrée des ressources en eau
GICRESAIT Gestion intégrée et concertée des ressources en eau des systèmes aquifères
d’Iullemeden, de Taoudéni /Tanezrouft et du fleuve Niger
GIS Geographical Information System
GIZ Agence de coopération technique allemande pour le développement
IGAD Inter Governmental Authority for Development
JRC Joint Research Center
MCA-WEAP Multi-Criteria Analysis tool - Water Evaluation and Planning System
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NEPAD New Partnership for Africa Development
OMVS Organisation de mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal
OSS Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel
PANA Plan d’action national pour l’adaptation aux changements climatiques
PAS Programme d’action stratégique
PHI Programme hydrologique international
PNUD Programme des Nations unies pour le développement
PNUE Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement
PO Programme opérationnel du GEF
SAI Système aquifère d’Iullemeden
SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar
SASS Système aquifère du Sahara septentrional
SAT Système aquifère de Taoudeni/Tanezrouft
SEI Stockholm Environment Institute
SIG Système d’information géographique
SRTM Shuttle RADAR Topographic Mission
UMA Union du Maghreb arabe
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System
I. INTRODUCTION
The present report belongs in the framework of the project entitled “Management of Hydro-geo-
logical Risks in the Iullemeden Aquifer System”, financed by UNEP/GEF and implemented by the
Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS). The other partners are in support in their domains. This is
mainly, FAO, UNESCO, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), GIZ and the European Space
Agency (ESA).

The Sahara and Sahel Observatory proceeded to implement the GEF/UNEP project activities that
were conducted by experts from the countries supported by consultants. They were accompanied
by the strengthening of national capacities (to control the management tools).

The overall objective of the project is to establish capacity under a sustainable cooperative frame-
work for joint management of risk and uncertainty, to jointly identify, reduce and mitigate trans-
boundary risk from changing land and water use and from climate change in the shared Iulle-
meden Aquifer System.

The outcomes are: 1) a joint mechanism for identification of transboundary risk issues in the IAS,
2) a joint mechanism for policy formulation and implementation to address and mitigate trans-
boundary risk issues in the IAS; 3) a joint development and conservation strategy, une stratégie
de développement et de conservation des eaux et des terres, 4) a joint tripartite legal and institu-
tional cooperative framework for the IAS, 5) a joint programme for awareness, participation and
inter-governmental communication for managing transboundary risks.

The outputs are: 1) the document of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis, 2) the Database
and Geographic Information System, 3) the mathematical model, 4) the elements for the develop-
ment of transboundary risk reduction policy, 5) the elements for a strategy of development and
conservation of water and land, 6) the mechanism for monitoring the transboundary aquifers, 7) 9
the “Iullemeden” Website.

The Iullemeden Aquifer System (SAI) is located in the arid and semi-arid West Africa. It is mainly
shared between Mali, Niger and Nigeria, covers an area of 500,000 km2. The IAS is a strategic
resource for sustainable development of the concerned countries. However, it is:
 exposed to a fragile and constraining environment: 1) reduction in rainfall of about 20 to
30% since 1968, 2) reduction of surface runoff about 20 to 50% with low water up to the
sometimes severe stop flow, 3) and establishment of sand dunes in recharge areas of aquifer
and in the Niger River hydrographic network;
 faces multiple constraints in particular: 1) difficulties of access to resources related to the
excessive depth (over 600 meters) in some places of water abstraction, 2) degradation of
water quality (pollution, pumping deep water highly mineralized), 3) non-cooperative manage-
ment of waters shared by several countries.
 subject to: 1) increasing population pressure (about 6 million inhabitants in 1970, 15 million
in 2000, 30 million in 2025), 2) increased annual water abstraction of about 50 million m3 in
1970 to 180 million m3 in 2004.

In order to understand these risks and their associated threats, this project adopted an approach
based on risk management (risk-based management approach). This approach is based on the prin-
ciple of an assessment of both consequences and probability of occurrence of risk (frequency).
 Risk assessment means the determination of its ) potential effects (or impacts. This assessment
includes questions like: is it a risk or not? This risk is relevant? What are its consequences (im-
pacts)? What is the likelihood of this risk? Once the risk assessed what decisions to make: to
mitigate this risk, control, or ignore it?

To identify, analyze and assess risks that may affect the hydrogeology Groundwater of the Iulle-
meden Aquifer System, the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis/Strategic Action Program (TDA/
SAP) GEF International Waters approach has been adapted and applied. It is important to re-
member that this is the first application of this approach on transboundary aquifers in Africa, and
the second in the world after the Guarani Aquifer System in Latin America (shared by Argentina,
Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay)..

The diagnosis of transboundary risks, in a first step was qualitative. Data and additional informa-
tion was necessary to understand, first, the dynamics of groundwater flow. Thus, OSS has de-
veloped management tools (Database, Geographic Information System, hydrogeological model)
specific to the SAI with the full participation of technical staff of countries. The results derived from
them have enabled to quantify risks and identify the most vulnerable areas.

The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) was conducted by National Committee for Coordi-
nation and Monitoring of project activities (CNCS) of the three countries, supported by the national
consultants. The CNCS implemented in each country is multidisciplinary: it includes state institu-
tions (Ministry of Water, Environment, Agriculture, Livestock, Foreign Affairs on the transboundary
legal aspects, the water agencies), Non Governmental Organizations concerned with the issue
of water. CNCS activities were conducted as thoughts through their regular meetings to identify
risks that threaten the IAS water resources and also examine the investigations conducted by
national consultants.

This regional report has not been confined to the synthesis of national reports produced by mem-
bers of the CNCS and national consultants. It was developed by the OSS team, which carried out
its investigations to further enrich the document with new data. It has also integrated the results
from the management tools (Database, Geographic Information System, hydrogeological model)
10 that has developed in Tunis with the participation of countries.

The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Iullemeden Aquifer System includes the following
elements:
 identification and “prioritization” of transboundary issues;
 final detailed prioritization of transboundary issues;
 analysis of environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences;
 mapping the major risks;
 the causal chain analysis.
II. GENERAL FRAMEWORK
The basin is named “Iullemeden” which identifies the name of the Tuareg. They coexist with other
ethnicities Hausa, Songhai, Fulani, Arabs, Kanuri.

II.1. Brief overview of the GEF process: From the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
(TDA) to the Strategic Action Programme (SAP)
II.1.1. The Global Environment Facility (GEF)
The Global Environment Facility1 (GEF) is an independent financial organization which provides
grants to developing countries for the implementation of projects which are of benefit to the world
environment and promote sustainable existence in local communities.

GEF projects are managed by the GEF Executing Agencies, namely:

 the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
 the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and
 the World Bank.

Seven other international organizations, called GEF Executing Agencies, contribute in the manage-
ment and execution of GEF projects. These are: the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Asian
Development Bank (AsDB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the International Fund for Agricultural Development
(IFAD), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations Indus-
trial Development Organisation (UNIDO).
11
The GEF projects relate to six (6) complex and global environmental issues2 (or focal zones), name-

1 GEF, 2004. Training Course on the TDA/SAP Approach in the GEF. International Waters Programme. Six volumes.

2. A. Biodiversity
1. Arid and Semi-Arid Zone Ecosystems
2. Coastal, Marine, and Freshwater Ecosystems
3. Forest Ecosystems
4. Mountain Ecosystems
13. Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biological Diversity Important to Agriculture
B. Climate Change
5. Removal of Barriers to Energy Efficiency and Energy Conservation
6. Promoting the Adoption of Renewable Energy by Removing Barriers and Reducing Implementation Costs
7. Reducing the Long-Term Costs of Low Greenhouse Gas Emitting Energy Technologies
11. Promoting Environmentally Sustainable Transport
C. International Waters
8. Waterbody-based Operational Program
9. Integrated Land and Water Multiple Focal Area Operational Program
10. Contaminant-Based Operational Program
D. Multifocal Area
12. Integrated Ecosystem Management
E. Persistent Organic Pollutants
14. Draft Operational Program on Persistent Organic Pollutants
 ly: 1) Biological Diversity, 2) Climate Change, 3) International Waters, 4) Multifocal Areas, 5) Per-
sistent Organic Pollutants, and 6) Land Degradation.

Each one of these issues is examined through Operational Programmes (OP). International Waters,
which concerns, among others, the activities of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA), is
organized around three complementary operational programmes, namely OP8, OP9 and OP10:
 OP8 Waterbody-Based Operational Programme;
 OP9 Integrated Land and Water Multiple Focal Area Operational Programme;
 OP10 Contaminant-Based Operational Programme.

The objectives of programmes OP8, OP9 and OP10 are as follows:

 the OP8 focuses on extending assistance to the countries to change the human activities
which seriously threaten, or have already damaged, a water surface or its drainage basin;
 the OP9 addresses problems of a larger scope in order to obtain environmental benefit
through projects that integrate a sound management of financial and water resources. It is
more focused on prevention measures than on remedial measures. The OP9 may also pro-
vide general advantages in multifocal areas;
 the OP10 is focused on specific issues of the global context and seeks projects contributing in
removing barriers that impede the adoption of best practices aimed at reducing the contami-
nation of the environment of international waters.

The OP8 and OP9 require the development of a Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) and the
formulation of a Strategic Action Programme (SAP).

The formal objective of the GEF operational strategy in the International Water Focal Area is to
contribute, above all, as a catalyst, to the implementation of a more comprehensive eco-sys-
tematic approach to manage international waters as a means to achieve global environmental
advantages.

12
“To act as catalyst” means that the GEF programmes serve mainly to promote and sustain the
other national and international programmes which have top responsibility over action.

II.1.2. International Waters

In order to distinguish between the GEF concept of “International Waters “ and the legal defini-
tion of the United Nations law on the Seas Convention3, the GEF operational strategy focuses on
“Transboundary “ water resources and emphasises the management of pollution and water re-
sources based on a binational and multinational stakeholders’ participatory process4.

On the other hand, most of the international waters projects, financed by GEF, relate to environ-
mental water problems which extend beyond any single country and, therefore, have a Trans-
boundary character. The areas concerned are: marine waters, lakes, rivers, wetlands and aqui-
fers (figure 1).

Each problem of management of international waters can justify the achievement of the desir-

F. Land Degradation
15. Operational Program on Sustainable Land Management.
3. Under UNCLOS III, the high seas (or international waters) apply to all parts of the sea which are not included in the
exclusive economic zone, of the territorial waters or inland waters of a State or of the archipelago waters of a archipe-
lago State.
4. The stakeholders are the parties involved or affected by an environmental problem or by its solution.
able environmental objectives
based on a International Waters
project. One component of a In-
ternational Waters project is the
TDA/SAP process5.

Three key principles are preva-

lent in the whole of the process:
 consultation6 with the per-
sons affected by the problem
(they are the stakeholders);
 adaptive management7, fol-
low-up, adjustment and revi-
sion as work progresses;
 gradual involvement of the
waters responsible of the ac-
tion.

The process comprises several

points at which financing may be
arranged. There are three main
types of financing called PDF-A, Figure 1 : Examples of Transboundary Waters
PDF-B full project fund. PDF
means “Project Development Fund“.

However, the TDA/SAP process is not a fast procedure. Rather, it is a directive which must
adapt to the cultural realities of the region. Indeed, the development of a TDA and the formula-
tion of a SAP would, in principle, take between 1 to 3 years. On the other hand, reversing environ-
mental degradation in complex Transboundary marine or freshwater situations can take decades.
A whole range of scientific, social, political, institutional, cross-sector and sovereignty issues may
need to be addressed by the cooperating countries before they commit to undertaking the neces-
sary reforms and investments.
13
The experience of developed countries shows that this may take as much as 15 to 20 years
before ensuring significant commitments to joint management of the improvements. A proper
time-period is necessary before the reductions in the pressure of pollution, of overexploitation ac-
tivities in the field of fishing, of sedimentation, eutrophication or alteration of habitats, would result
in measurable improvements of the environmental state of waterbodies. Single-handed efforts by
individual countries may take between 20 and 30 years.

II.1.3. Development of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA)

The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis is an objective evaluation, an analytical study of the sci-
entific and technical facts, which serves to determine the relative importance of the sources, the
causes and their impacts on Transboundary issues in matter of water. In other words, the Trans-
boundary Diagnostic Analysis uses the best technical and scientific information, both available

5. UNEP. The GEF IW TDA/SAP Process: Notes on a proposed best practice approach.
6. By including a clear representation of the stakeholders at all stages, consensus building will be more likely and will
increase the likelihood of ownership by the stakeholders of the result which will, therefore, have long-term viability.
7. Adaptive management is a process by which the long term environmental goals are reached in a series of pragmatic
action measures. Within each measure, agreed performance indicators are controlled and an exercise of joint planning
is initiated to review progress and to adjust the approaches as required, as well as to plan the next stage.
 and validated, to examine the state of the environment and the underlying causes of its degrada-
tion. It must be an objective evaluation and not a negotiated document.

The analysis is conducted in a cross-sector way, while focusing on Transboundary issues, and with-
out losing sight of national concerns and priorities. So that the analysis would be more effective
and sustainable, it must include a detailed analysis of governance, which examines local, legislative
and political environment.

The process of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis makes it possible to break down com-
plex Transboundary situations into smaller components, which are more manageable within the
framework of the actions to be conducted, such as degradation specific sub-zones or priority “hot
spots”.

The TDA is a scientific and technical process of study of the facts (or of diagnosis) of the state of,
and threats to, international waters. Its objective is to:
 identify, quantify and prioritise the environmental problems of a Transboundary character;
 identify their immediate, major and underlying causes.

The identification of the causes comprises: the practices, sources, sites and sectors of human
activity from which environmental degradation originates or represents a risk.

Wherever possible, the experts of the countries concerned would do the work but, often, interna-
tional experts would also be brought on board in order to emphasise recourse to a better inde-
pendent expertise available. The regional experts of the technical taskforce need to be selected by
representatives of the stakeholders and consulted during the process. This is important to confer
regional ownership of the process and its products.

The stages involved in the TDA development process are (figure 2) :

 preparation of the TDA;
 analysis of the impacts and consequences of each Transboundary problem;

14  final prioritisation of the Transboundary problems;

 analysis of cause/ effect chains and analysis of governance;
 production and submission of the complete draft TDA;
 the TDA is adopted by the Steering Committee.

Throughout the world, Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis has very often been applied to the first
four surface areas, i.e. rivers (basins), lakes, wetlands and marine water8. Apart from very rare
exceptions (case of the Aquifer of Guarani (in Latine America), for instance), the Iullemeden Aqui-
fer System represents the first case, at least in the African continent, to have developed a TDA/
SAP process.

Examples of application abound in the region, as attested by the “Reversal of Land and Water
Degradation in the Niger River Basin” and “Reversal of Land and Water Degradation in the Chad
Lake Basin”. The development of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Iullemeden Aquifer
System by the countries and the consultants is sometimes influenced by the expansion of the ex-
isting documentation largely dominated by the study of natural surface resources.

The special character of the groundwater of shared aquifers is that it is not visible, unlike the water
of Transboundary Rivers and lakes (figure 3). The conceptual hydro-geological model characterizes
the Transboundary aquifers in terms of hierarchical local, intermediate and regional flow systems

8 http://www.iwlearn.net/ftp/iwps.pdf
 Preliminary project request

Project development
Appointment of facilitator
Identification of, and consultation with, stakeholder groups
Identification of Technical Task Team (TTT)
Preparation of a draft concept paper
Project approved by GEF CEO

Appointment of Project Manager

Planning the TDA/ SAP

Form of Interministry Committees

Form Steering Committees
Set up of the TDA Technical Task Team
Design work plan for the TDA/ SAP implementation phase, including
budgets
Detailed stakeholder analysis and draft public involvement
plan
Preparation of full Project brief

TDA preparation
Development of TDA

Identification and initial prioritisation of the transboundary problems

Analysis of the impacts/ consequences of the Transboundary problems
Final prioritisation of the Transboundary problems
Causal chains Analysis and governance analysis
Production and submission of complete draft TDA
TDA adopted by steering committee 15
Bridging the TDA and SAP, and developing long-term EcoQOs
Formulating the SAP

Planning the remaining steps of the SAP and appointing SAP and NAP
formulating teams
Brainstorming ways to attain the EcoQOs
Examination of and political consultation on alternative options
Development the targets and indicators
Agreement on the institutional framework
Drafting the NAP and the SAP

Adoption of SAP. Ministerial conference

SAP Imple-
mentation

Conducting a donors’ conference

Development of the relevant interventions by GEF and/or other
donors

Figure 2 : Diagramme of the whole process. The main decision boxes are highlighted in red
colour
 (Király, 1978; 1985; Tóth,
1962; 1963; 1966; 1978;
Freeze & Witherspoon,
1966; 1967; 1968; Mars-
ily, 1978; Ophori D., Tóth J,
1989; 1990)9.

Knowledge of the ground

flows implies knowledge of
the recharge zones, the out-
lets (or discharge zones) and
the various flow systems.
The activities conducted in
certain recharge zones, on
one side of the State bor-
der, may affect the quantity
and quality of the groundwa-
ter on the other side of the
border (Almássy and Buzás, Figure 3 : Block diagramme between the boundary of the Transboun-
1999; UN/ECE, 2000). dary water basins and the inter-State shared aquifers (State border in
red colour)
The characterization of the
groundwater flows requires information based on geology, geophysics, as well as on the whole
range of hydro-geological investigations. It also requires the seasonal and long-term responses
of the aquifer, the variations of and changes in direction of flow induced by human activities and,
more particularly the changes in the pattern of land use in recharge areas and aquifer tapping
fields.

The “visibility” of groundwater takes place through the piezometric maps (figure 4) which are de-
veloped based on reliable data on the water levels measured in the wells, the drillings (and springs)
graded at absolute elevation (with respect to sea level).
16

Figure 4 : Piezometric map of the Continental intercalaire (to the left) and of the Continental Terminal
(to the right) of the Iullemeden Aquifer System (OSS, 2007).

9.Tóth J., 1963. A theoretical analysis of groundwater flow in small drainage basins. J. of Geophys. Res., vol. 16, n°11,
pp4795-4811.
The first piezometric map of the Iullemeden aquifers is that of the Continental intercalaire (Greigert,
1978). It was, thereafter, complemented in the basin of Sokoto (Margat, 1982) and partly to-
wards the East (Bonnier et al.., 1992). Precise details, considering the whole aquifer in its regional
context, were subsequently elicited (Dodo, 1992).

So far, the mathematical modelling of the Iullemeden Aquifer System has made it possible to
obtain the updated piezometric measurements of the Continental intercalaire (Ci) and the Conti-
nental Terminal (CT). This mathematical model is a regional model which will be used to develop
local models according to the Transboundary aquifers which compose these two major hydro-
geological entities.

These piezometric maps highlight a water supply of Niger River from the aquifers; this confirms
sustaining of river low flow by the groundwater, as attested by the multitude of springs which line
the banks. The preliminary estimates of the mathematical model developed based on active par-
ticipation by the representatives of the three countries have given the following values (table 1) :

Continental terminal

Inflows (m3/s) Outflows (m3/s)

Recharge 3,29 Niger River 2,50
Leakeance from Ci 0,013 Dallols 0,45
River Rima 0,35
TOTAL 3,30 TOTAL 3,30

Continental intercalaire

Inflows (m3/s) Outflows (m3/s)

Recharge 0,55 Niger River 1,60
Inflows from Northern boundary 0,29 Leakeance from CT 0,013
River Rima
TOTAL
0,77
1,61 TOTAL 1,61
17
Table 1 : Water balance (budget) of the mathematical model of the Iullemeden Aquifer
System (OSS, 2007).

Niger River receives groundwater inflows. On the other hand, Rima River supplies the Continental
intercalaire (Ci) and receives the waters of the Continental Terminal (CT). This river originates in
Nigeria, crosses the Republic of Niger under the name of Goulbi de Maradi, where it takes the
shape of a loop of about 150 km, then flows back in Nigeria, thus converging in Niger River.

In fine, the whole analysis of the various issues must be conducted within this ground context.
III. MAIN FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM
III.1. Physical and Climatic Context of the Iullemeden Aquifer System
The Iullemeden Aquifer System (IAS) is located in the arid and semi-arid zone of West
Africa. It corresponds to a portion of the water basin of Niger River, commonly
known as “the Middle Niger”.

The ecology of the basin is strongly determined by climatic factors, of which

in particular rainfall and temperature. Rainfall in Niger basin is marked by a
pronounced gradient: from less than 50 mm in the North
to more than 800 mm in the South. The position of the
normal annual isohyets singles out four climatic zones as
follows (figure 5) :
 the Saharan zone (less than 150 mm) ;
 the nomadic Sahel zone (between 150 and 300 mm) ;
 the sedentary Sahel zone (between 300 and 600 mm) ;
 the Sahel-Sudanese zone (between 600 and 800 mm).

The nomadic Sahel zone is called the “pastoral zone”. The

“crop zone” is located south of the 300 mm isohyet. It
covers the sedentary Sahel zone and the Sahel-Sudanese
zone: This is, in fact, the zone of rainfed crops (millet, sor-
ghum, corn, niébé, groundnut, cotton, etc.).

The analysis of the evolution of the annual rainfall total

19
values reveals a major “shift”, starting from the year 69-
70 (figure 6). Thus, two (2) trends may be noted in the Figure 5 : The different climatic zones of
basin: a “Wet” period before 1970 and a “dry’’ period Africa and of the Iullemeden Aquifer Sys-
from 1970 onwards (Anonymous10, 2003 ; Hubert and tem*
Carbonnel , 198711; Hubert & al., 198912 ; Traoré and
* Source : World Meteorological Organisation
Abdou, 200513). (WMO), United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adap-
Thus, in the Sahel portion of the basin, this decrease has tation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working
Group II to the Third Evaluation Report of the Inter-
translated-–among other things—in a drop in the isohyets governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
towards the South by about 100 km, which reveals signifi-

10.
UICN-BRAO, GWP-WAWP, CILSS, 2003. Water, Climate Change and Desertification in West Africa: Regional Stra-
tegy of Preparedness and Adaptation.
Hubert P. et Carbonnel J.-P., 1987. Approche statistique de l’aridification de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Journ. Of Hydrol.,,
11.

95 (1987), 165-183.
Hubert P., Carbonnel J.-P. and Chaouche A., 1989. «Segmentation of Hydro-meteorological Series – Application to a
12.

Series of Rainfalls and Flows of West Africa”. Journ. of Hydrol., 110 (1989), 349-367.
TRAORE Mamadou T. and ABDOU Hassane, 2005. Process of Shared Vision for the Development of the Sustainable
13.

Development Action Plan (SDAP) in the Niger Basin” – Regional Synthesis Report of the National Multisector Studies.
94 pages.
 cant desert encroachment
(figure 7).

Recent studies describe

that in the Sahel, the last
decade is characterized by
a continued dry conditions
in the West and a return to
rainy conditions in the east-
ern part. The boundary be-
tween the Sahel and West
Sahel Central is located at
longitude 11°0, while the
eastern boundary between
the Eastern Sahel and the

20
Central Sahel is located at Figure 6 : Analysis of the evolution of the total annual rainfalls in Mali
longitude 15°E. and in Niger.

Figure 7 : Sliding of the isohyets over the two periods before and after 1968 (UICN-BRAO, GWP-
WAWP, CILSS, 2003).
The indices calculated on different
parts of the Sahel show a higher
frequency of opposition sign indices
between the Sahel and East West
for the last decade (Figure 8). This
difference is especially highlighted
since 1993. During the 13 years
(1994 – 2006), the Central Sahel
has recorded very rainy three years
(1994, 1999, 2003), while the
western Sahel has recorded only a
wet year (1999) and two years mod-
erately moist (2003 and 2005) and
the Sahel recorded seven (7) years
of good rainfall. The year 1998 was
very wet in the Eastern Sahel but
very dry the western Sahel. Similar-
ly, the year 2006 was rainy on the
Eastern Sahel, but dry on the West-
ern Sahel.

These figures mean that during this

period, the occurrency to get the
same intensity of rainfall in the East-
ern and Western Sahel - as defined
from the SPI (Standardized Rainfall
Index) - is less than 25%. It seems
therefore more appropriate to calcu-
late three separate indices for each
of these areas to better understand
the concrete Sahelian rainfall.
21
It’s relevant to mention that another
interannual variability mode seems
be established during the period
1994-2006 when the dry years and
wet years alternate in contrast with
the persistence of wet years of the
period before 1970 and the dry
years in the period 1970-1993.

It’s relevant to note that the east-

ern boundary of the IAS basin is in
Nigeria in the area where the rainfall
conditions are improving. Figure 8 : rainfall indices during the period 1950-2006
for the Central, Eastern and Western areas. The boundary
Annual evaporation in the Iullemeden between the Western and Central areas is located at 11
Aquifer System ranges, on average, degrees west and the boundary between the eastern and
between 2100 mm in the north at central areas is located at 15 degrees east.
the base of the mounts of the shield
of the Tuareg mountain range (triple point Algeria-Mali-Niger) and gradually decreases to 1800
mm to the South of the Sokoto basin in Nigeria (figure 9).
 < 1800 mm

1900-2000 mm

2000-2100
mm
m
2100-2200 mm 0m
10
0- 2
2 00 1900-2000
mm
1800
-190
0 mm
1700-1800 mm

1600-1700 mm

mm
1500-1600 mm 500
0-1
140

Figure 9 : Annual evaporation in the Niger basin (Source: ABN)

III.2. Socio-economic context

The population of the basin is primarily young, predominantly female, and with a high annual de-
mographic growth rate of about 3%. The population is of 83.572 inhabitants in Mali, 9,5 million
inhabitants in Niger (that is, 86% of the population in Niger) and about 5.746.536 inhabitants in
2001 in the basin of Sokoto in Nigeria.

The earnings of Mali, Niger and Nigeria are primarily due to a royalty-based economy (Oil, Ura-
nium, cocoa, coffee, and cotton) and is prone to the fluctuations of the international market, or to

22
a primary economy based on grain crop farming and traditional activities with low value added.
Farming and stock-breeding generate 40 to 60% of their export earnings and occupy 80 to 90%
of the active population.

According to the World Human Development Report14, the GDP is 166 US $ (Niger), 201 US $
(Mali) and 360 US$ (Nigeria). Official Development Assistance (ODA) is of 19.5 US $ /inh. (Niger),
31.7 US $/inh. (Mali) and 1.6 US $/inh. (Nigeria), that is, 11,6 %, 15,7 % and 0,4 % of GDP,
respectively (Traoré and Abdou, 2005; Diarra and Cissé, 200415; Maliki and Soumana, 200416 ;
Ude & Hanidu, 200417).

The consequences of the economic imbalances and environment degradation induce rural migra-
tion which leads to settlement in sub-urban zones and adoption of an urban way of life.

Such intergovernmental organizations as UEMOA and ECOWAS attest to the will of the States to
achieve a mainstreaming of development policies for purposes of a harmonious and sustainable
development of the sub-region.
14.
UNDP, 2002. World Human Development Report.
15.
DIARRA Adama Tiémoko and CISSE Youssouf, 2004. National Multisector Study: Evaluation of Development Oppor-
tunities and Constraints in the Mali Part of the River Niger Basin. Niger Basin Authority Report. 142 pages.
MALIKI Barhouni and ISSA Soumana, 2004. Process of Development of a Shared Vision for Sustainable Develop-
16.

ment of the Niger Basin: National Multisector Study. Niger Basin Authority report. 213 pages and Appendices.
17.
Ude M. O. and Hanidu J. A., 2004. Assessment of the opportunities and constraints to the development of the Nige-
ria’s portion of the river Niger basin. Niger Basin Authority, 141 pages and Appendix.
III.3. Legal and legislative water resources management framework
In Mali, Niger and Nigeria, Water Legislation consists in the Act on the Water Code or the Act on
Orientation of the Water Sector which lay the foundations for a new regulation of the water sector
and confers legitimacy on the structures in charge of water management.

The Water Code enshrines the principle of State property over water, specifies the methods of
management and protection of water resources by specifying the rights and duties of the State,
local authorities, users, civil society and the private sector.

The political/legal context of the development of water resources in these countries is also
marked by a strong involvement of the State in matter of acceptance and ratification of interna-
tional Agreements, Conventions and Protocols related to the management of natural resources,
in general, and of water, in particular. However, customary rules weaken modern law, thus often
making it difficult to apply legal and legislative texts which require very wide dissemination.

III.4. Water Resources

III.4.1.Surface water
Africa is the world’s conti-
nent that is most provided
in surface water resourc-
es18, with a potential es-
timated as 31776 billion
m3 (figure 10). Africa has
17 major rivers and over
160 major lakes, but it
uses barely 4% of its total
annual quantity of renew-
able water resources for 23
agriculture, industry and Figure 10 : Africa’s surface
domestic needs (WHO, water resources and water
2001). basins

In the zone of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, the Mali,

Niger and Nigeria territories share the water basin of
Niger River which is the 3rd longest river of Africa and
ranks 14th internationally in terms of length (4200 km).
It originates in Guinea Conakry, crosses Mali over 1700
km with an inner delta of 84.500 km2, then the Republic
of Niger over 550 km, part of Benin and Nigeria over
1314 km before flowing in the Gulf of Guinea. It covers
an area of 2.170.500 km2 of which 1.500.000 km2 of
active basin.

In Mali, at the station of Koulikoro, a reference station, the

average inter-annual flow of Niger River is 1.350 m3/s (mean value for the period 1929-1970),

18.
Igor A., Shidomanov. State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) and United Nations Educational Scientific
and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO, Paris), 1999: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), International Council of
Scientific Unions (ICSU), World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS); United States Geological Survey (USGS)
 that is, 42 billion m3/year and is about 1.039 m3/s (mean value for the period 1971-2002),
corresponding to approximately 33 billion m3/year, that is a decrease by 23% (figure 11).

Figure 11 : Regime of the River in its basin areas during a water year (ABN)

In Niger territory, the average inter-annual flow in Niamey between 1971 and 2002 is a mere
704 m3/s, as against 1.062 m3/s for the period 1929-1970 that is a total reduction of about
34%.

In Nigeria, the average inter-annual flow of Niger River upstream of Jebba, downstream the
dams of Kainji and Jebba, is of 1.454 m3/s. After convergence with the Lokoja, it rises to 5.660
m3/s (mean value for the period from 1915 to 2001). The average value for the period 1929-
1970 is 6.055 m3/s against 5.066 m3/s (1971-2001) that is a decrease by about 17%.

24 III.4.2. Groundwater
Africa ranks 2nd inter-
nationally, after Asia, in
terms of its groundwater
potential estimated as
5.500.000 billion cubic
meters19 (figure 12).

Mali, Niger and Nigeria

are covered by the aqui-
fer systems of the major
sedimentary basins sur-
rounded by the massifs
of the shields of the pan-
African loose chain (Hog-
gar, Aïr, Adrar des Iforas,
Damagaram Mounio,
Plateau de Jos) and the Figure 12 : Africa’s groundwater potential

19.
Igor A., Shidomanov. State Hydrological Institute (SHI, St. Petersburg) and United Nations Educational Scientific
and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO, Paris), 1999: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), International Council of
Scientific Unions (ICSU), World Glacier Monitoring Service 5WGMS); United States Geological Survey (USGS).
West African craton of Man (Man ridge or ebernuan shield to the south; and the Réguibate ridge
to the North) (Konaté, 1996)20.

The Malian territory is astride the sedimentary basins of Taoudenni and of Iullemeden, the Niger
and Nigerian territory is astride the Iullemeden basin and the Lake Chad basin. The sedimentary
formations start with the arkosic sandstone of the Cambro-Ordovician and extend as far as the
ancient and recent alluvia of the Quaternary.

On national level, the groundwater resources are estimated as 2700 billion m3 in Mali with an
annual renewal rate estimated as 66 billion m3. Exploitation of groundwater is made by means
of 15100 positive drillings
and 9400 large diameter
modern wells (DNH, 2003).
In Niger, renewable ground-
water resources are esti-
mated as 2,5 billion m3 and
non renewable resources
as over 2.000 billion m3
(Anonymous, 2000). In Ni-
geria, where the insular shelf
is prevalent, renewable water
resources are estimated as
221 billion m3, of which 214
for surface water and 80 bil- Figure 12 : Carte de vulnérabilité à la désertification (d’après US Depart-
lion m3 for groundwater. ment of agriculture, Washington D.C. 1998). Echelle de vulnérabilité :
Vert = Faible ; Jaune = Modéré ; Orange= Elevé ; Rouge= Très éle-
The groundwater potential of vé.
the Iullemeden Aquifer Sys-
tem will be evaluated based on the mathematical model (OSS, 200721).

III.5. Land Degradation

25
According to studies conducted by FAO, out of the 3600 million hectares, 70 % of affected arid
land worldwide, 10 million hectares of arable land degraded every year, 130 million hectares seri-
ously affected, 50% are in Africa.

The continent is the most exposed because of the Sahara which represents the largest desert of
the world, with an area of 10 million km2. This phenomenon of desertification affects about 480
million people throughout the world, and constitutes a threat to about one billion people. The Sahel
Africa is one of the zones most vulnerable to desertification22 (figure 13).

Deforestation for the production of firewood contributes very significantly in desertification. In de-
veloping countries, over 2 billion people do not have access to reliable types of energy. Water is a
vital source in matter of energy production, the latter being, in its turn, indispensable for economic
development. While Europe uses 75 % of its potential in hydropower, Africa, where 60 % of the

20.
Konaté M., 1996. Tectonic-sedimentary Evolution of the Paleozoic Basin of Kandi (Northern Benin, Southern Niger) –
A Mark of the Post Orogenic Extension of the Panafrican Chain. Doct. Dissertation, Univ. Bourgogne, Lyon I, Aix-Marseille
I, Toulouse III. Vol. I, II, III - in the French language
21.
OSS, 2007. . Mathematical model of the Iullemeden Aquifer System. OSS, Tunis
22.
US Department of agriculture, Washington D.C. 1998
 population does not have access to electricity, exploits a mere 7 % of its potential23. This deficit is
compensated by wood energy.

In the zone of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, the forestry domain24 of Mali is estimated as 100
million ha (Diarra and Cissé, 2004), exclusive of the pastoral and desert zones. Yet, the main wood
resources cover only about 32.4 million ha, i.e. less than 26% of the national area of the country.
Some 118 forests, totalling about 1 million hectares, of which 20 listed forests, of a total area
of 259200 ha, are amenable to sustainable development, of which 8000 ha in the Iullemeden
zone25.

For woody production, the volume of live wood is over 520 million m3, that is, 416 million tons of
live wood with productions of less than 10 m3/ha for shrubby savannas; between 20 to 40 m3/
ha for striped bush; between 50 to 80 m3 for woody savannas; and over 100 m3/ha Guinean
zone forest galleries.

In Mali, more than 100 000 ha of forests disappear every year. Felling for firewood and charcoal
is estimated as 5 million tons per year in aggregate, which corresponds to the exploitation of 400
000 ha and is likely to reach or exceed 7 million tons in the year 2010, that is 560 000 ha. The
regeneration (productivity) potential is estimated as 7 million tons per year26. The production of
firewood and charcoal in the portion of the Iullemeden Aquifer System during the period 1984 –
1999 is estimated as 270 879 steres of wood, that is 37 095 quintals of coal.

In Niger, according to an estimate conducted during the period 1982 - 1989, the forest resourc-
es cover an area of 16 million hectares (that is, 2% of the total area of the national territory),
consisting of 11.600.000 hectares of marginal forest land (a cover of less than 5%), 4.400.000
hectares of forest formations amenable to development, of which 600.000 hectares of listed for-
ests27. By 1995, the forest areas (natural forests and plantations) had shrunk to a mere 2,5 mil-
lion hectares28. In the Iullemeden basin, the inventory revealed the existence of 37 listed forests
covering an area of 381.284.4 ha (that is, 79% of the total area of the country’s listed forests)
and 38 protected forests, totalling about 2,3 million hectares.

26
The Niger forests account for 87% of the population’s energy needs estimated as in the range of
1,5 to 2 million tons per year, in spite of a low productivity of the Niger forests (ranging between
0,1 and 1,5 steres/ha/year)29 due, in particular, to a high human and animal pressure, as well as
to recurrent droughts. Thus, annually, some 338’180 hectares on average are lost to forestry
areas30.

The Federal Republic of Nigeria has significant forest reserves. In certain Northern States, the
estimates amount to 840.280 hectares in Bauchi, 613.484 hectares in Kaduna and 602.631
hectares in the State of Sokoto. A forestry restoration programme has allowed the reforestation
of 432.052 hectares in the State of Borno (zone of Lake Chad), 18.900 hectares in the State de
Katsina and 17.150 hectares in the State de Kebbi. The production of seedlings in 1992 in the
States under threat of desertification due to deforestation reported the following figures: Plateau

23.
Second UN World Report on the Development of Water Resources
24.
Findings of the Inventory Project of Mali Woody Resources (PIRL 1985-1991).
25.
Direction Nationale de la Conservation de la Nature (DNCN), 1999
26
According to the National Directorate of Faunal, Forest and Fishery Resources (DNRFFH)
27
CNEDD, 1998 and 2004
28
National Document CSE/LCD, 2004
29
CNEDD, 1998
30.
CNEDD, 2004
2.368.500, Kano 1.998.000, Borno 1.700.000 and Sokoto 1.555.875 hectares.

It is worth recalling that Nigeria has both renewable and non renewable energy resources. The
non renewable resources include in particular: crude oil, natural gas, coal and lignite, nuclear
fuel. The renewable resources consist of hydropower, solar energy, wind energy, firewood and
biomass. Firewood accounts for over 85% of domestic energy, although Nigeria is a oil exporting
country. The annual productions are about 43.3 million tons/year for wood, 144 million tons/
year for animal cattle waste and crop residue, 734.2 MW for small-size hydropower, 5.25 kw/
m2/day on average for solar energy and 2.0 – 4.0 (19.8 W/m2 on average for wind energy31.

In matter of, land degradation, 0.7% of the forest potential disappears in Mali, as against 3.7%
in Niger and 2.7% in Nigeria32.

III.6. Paradox of the African continent

Africa is the continent most provided in groundwater resources in the world (of which the Iul-
lemeden Aquifer System); it ranks second as regards surface water (of which Niger River which
represents one of the main outlets of the Iullemeden Aquifer System), next to Asia. Yet, Africa
uses barely 4% or so of this huge potential.

Accordingly, the state of access by the population to drinking water remains precarious. At
present, about 65% of the rural population and 25% of the urban population do not have ac-
cess to an adequate water distribution. The major part of the African countries, of which those of
West Africa, namely Mali, Niger and Nigeria, are likely to be in a situation of water deficit by 2025.
The African continent thus experiences a rather peculiar paradox, that of a water shortage in an
environment which abounds in considerable water potentialities.

During a Pan-African Conference on Water held in Addis-Ababa (Ethiopia) in December 2003,

the African ministers in charge of water and development planners pointed out that the lack of
(financial) resources and technologies were the main obstacles to resolving the issue of water and
sanitation in Africa. The meeting of Addis-Ababa had led to the development of the «African Vision
2025” which represents a reference frame for the management of water on the continent33. 27
The African ministers pledged to allocate at least 5% of the national budget to water and sanita-
tion within a five-year period. They also resolved to create a fund, the Africa Water Facility (AWF),
at the African Development Bank (AfDB), with a view to mobilizing, by the year 2008, over 600
million dollars for water and sanitation related programmes.

It is in this context that the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) of the Iullemeden Aquifer
System belongs.

Nigeria’s Non-Conventional Energy Resources (Source : Federal Republic of Nigeria: National Assessment Report-
31.

World Summit on Sustainable Development-2002)

32.
World Bank Atlas (2001)
Gumisai Mutume, 2004. Les vicissitudes du développement durable. Afrique Renouveau, Vol.18#2 (Juillet 2004),
33.

page 19.
IV. ELEMENTS OF THE TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC
ANALYSIS (TDA)
IV.1. Availability of Data
The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) is based on the existing and available data. The
hydro-geological data originate, for the most part, from the national data bases within the Minis-
tries in charge of Water in Mali and in Niger, Nigeria being so far unequipped with a data base.
These databases are supplied with data provided by the Water Directorates of the departments
and regions.
These data are also available in the archives or resource centres of these Ministries; however,
the data are not systematically inventoried and computerized. The data on abstractions are, for
the major part, collected, managed and stored by the National Agencies and Utilities in charge of
drinking water distribution to urban and sub-urban centres.
The climatological data, such as temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and evapotranspiration,
belong under the authority of the National Directorates of Meteorology; these data are not acces-
sible to the public. The data on hydrometry may be accessed from the Niger Basin Authority.

IV.2. Overview of the Mali Databases

The National Directorate of Statistics and Data Processing and the Planning and Statistics Di-
visions (CPS) of the government departments constitute the main sources of documentation.
These are, in particular, the CPS of the Ministries in charge of Agriculture, Stock-breeding and
29
Fishery, and the Ministries in charge of Water, Health and Education.
The data base SIGMA was designed under DOS environment and installed at the DNH in 1986 by
the project UNDP/MLI/84/005 for purposes of preparing the hydro-geological synthesis of Mali
and drawing up the master plan for the development of water resources. Thereafter, it was read-
justed to fit under Windows environment based on the ACCESS software when updating the inven-
tory of Modern Water Points in 2003. It thus came to bear the name SIGMA2, thus constituting
the main source of information on groundwater resources. It also has information related to:
 new data relating to communal districts and the general population and housing census of 2001;
 technical and hydro-geological data on the constructed drillings (files: drillings, chemistry,
pump tests, modern water points, etc). The SIGMA data base does not contain isotopic data;
 data of the inventory of updating pump operation conducted in 2003;
 climatic data on the observation stations of the National Directorate of Meteorology;
 data on rivers Niger and Senegal and their main tributaries (lists of the stations controlling the
various basins and the water heights expressed in cm).

The information system (IS) for surface water, forming the subject of the hydrological data base,
consists of a network of about a hundred stations controlling the two major rivers, i.e. Niger River
 and river Senegal, together with their various tributaries, of a data collection procedure and of a
computer-based archiving and processing system resting on several software (Gestra, HYDROM,
HydrAccess).

The hydrological data of this base are collected by the local observers and by the data collection
equipment. Readings of water height measurements are made once or twice per day according to
the stations and recorded under the form of bulletins which are passed on at the end of each month
to the Water Resources Inventory Division via the Regional Directorates of Water and Energy.

This hydrological database is developed under the Access software (HydrAccess). It is not linked
to SIGMA2. It comprises:
 the data on water heights from the whole network, with more or less gaps according to the
stations;
 the flows related to about 50% of the stations of the network representing the standardized
stations.

For the average flow of the Niger, in which the Malian part of the Iullemeden belongs, there are
data related to water levels and flows, although there are gaps for the stations of Tossaye (1954–
2002) and Ansongo (1950–2002); and water levels for the station of Gao for the period 1950
–2002. On the other hand, there are no data for the stations of Lelehoy and Labbezanga located
downstream of the station of Ansongo.

The climatological data (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, evapotranspiration, wind ve-
locity and sunshine) have been provided by the National Directorate of Meteorology which has
252 rainfall measurement stations, 19 synoptic stations, 58 climatological and agro-meteorologi-
cal stations that measure rainfall. Certain synoptic and agro-meteorological stations are equipped
with rain recording gauges.

IV.3. Overview of the Niger Databases

30 In Niger, the Ministry in charge of Water has set up a data management tool called “IRH/SIGNER”.
The IRH/SIGNER tool (with IRH standing for “Inventaire des Ressources Hydrauliques”/ Inventory
of Water Resources, and SIGNER standing for “Système d’Information Géographique du Niger”/
Niger Geographical Information System), consists of:
 the IRH data base, the system’s centrepiece,
 the SIGNER tool allowing data processing, cartographic use and dissemination. Dedicated to
operating the IRH data base, this tool can accommodate any other data which may be valor-
ised by spatial exploitation.

This “IRH/SIGNER” tool will gradually evolve into a Water Integrated Information System (SII-EAU).
In the Sustainable Development context, the SII-EAU (Water IIS) is envisaged to cover the whole
information chain required for an Integrated Management of Water Resources, planning, imple-
mentation and maintenance of water structures.

The IRH data base is established at the Ministry of Hydraulics, the Environment and Combat-
ing Desertification, more precisely at the Directorate of Inventory and Management of Water
Structures (DIGOH). It is run by the Division of Inventories and Rehabilitation of Water Structures
(DIROH) which centralizes country-wide data and manages the water resources inventory opera-
tions on the ground.

The IRH data base owes its name to the “Inventaires des Ressources Hydrauliques (IRH)” (Water
Resources Inventory service) which was created in 1972, then called “Bureau des Inventaires des
Ressources Hydrauliques (BIRH)” (Water Resources Inventory Bureau) and was attached to the
Mining Service of the Ministry of Public Works, Mining and Urbanisation. In 1980, the Water Direc-
torate became the Water Ministry and, in September 1980, the BIRH became the IRH Service.

Data capture is conducted by the Regional Water Directorates. A specially trained computer cor-
respondent is in charge of capture, processing, storage and transmission of data. The IRH data
base consists of:
 a database management system (DBMS): This is software capable of storage and manage-
ment of a structured set of data. The IRH has used DBASE, then Visual dBase (Borland). This
DBMS consists of a whole set of data files and indexes. Each data file represents a subject of
interest (village, water point, chemical analysis…);
 an interactive program allowing the input and consultation of data (IRH-NT): This refers to
the latest version of this program. It was developed under Visual dBase and uses the windows
offered by Windows. It allows the capture and query of the data, as well as the generation of
fields with a view to using the data by other information systems.

The IRH database is quite complete. Its structure, developed on the relational model, is rigorous.
It provides for the capture and storage of data on:
• the villages and their water supply, as well as the data on population, livestock, health and
educational infrastructures, etc.,
• the modern water points: drillings, cemented wells and piezometers, together with their de-
tailed design features,
• water quality monitoring on the modern water points,
• piezometric monitoring,
• ponds, their features and their location,
• projects that conduct constructions in the field of rural water.

Thus, without being exhaustive, the IRH data base provides, by its very design, for the integration
of the data necessary for a efficient management of water resources.

As for the SIGNER tool “Système d’Information Géographique du Niger”/ Niger Geographical In-
31
formation System), it is in fact a Geographical Information System (GIS) initiated in 1988 by the
Ministry in charge of water, with technical support by the Department of Economic and Social Af-
fairs (DESA) of the United Nations. SIGNER is composed of a open set of data, software, hardware
and methods;

The data of which SIGNER is composed come from various national sources. Among these data,
one may mention the following:
 data mapping: These are made up of digital maps or maps digitized in course of development
of the tool since 1988. The original maps come from various cartographic sources, of which
the National Geographical Institute of Niger (IGNN): topographic maps, the Cartographic Serv-
ice of the Ministry in charge of Mining, the Cartographic Service of the Ministry in charge of
Transport, the Land Register of certain urban communities, and the Regional Centre AG-
RHYMET which belongs under CILSS.
 satellite images: SIGNER is provided with a number of satellite images obtained via its coop-
eration with other systems.
 tabular or attributive data: The IRH data base represents the centrepiece of the data ex-
ploited by SIGNER. However, according to the needs of the studies entrusted to it, SIGNER
regularly uses other national data bases, as well as tabular data specific to the technical
departments.
 The software used by the SIGNER team may be classified into:
 Geographical Information Systems: These represent the geographical data (place, route, and
area) under vectorial format using simple cartographic objects (point, broken line or polyline,
polygon). A GIS makes it possible to relate to the cartographic objects corresponding data
which are stored in tables, called attributive tables, or in a data base. The cartographic objects
are clustered by type through «a layer” or topic. The superimposition of a certain number of
these layers makes it possible to develop a thematic map.

In actual practice, SIGNER operates in conjunction with IDRISI and, especially, the Atlas GIS
(Strategic Mapping), though more modern GIS are currently being used: MAPINFO, ARCVIEW
3.2 and ARCGIS (ESRI).
 Database management system (DBMS): for the analysis and query of the data, SIGNER uses
the following DBMS: Visual dBase (Borland), ACCESS (Microsoft).
 Spatial Data Analysis software: SURFER (Golden Software) is software which offers various
algorithms of spatial interpolation of data based on spot values, via a pre-defined regular grid
(meshed structure). The result of the calculations (values at the meshes nodes) may be dis-
played under the form of tables, maps of equal values (example: piezometry; thickness of an
aquifer) or a 3D-display of spatial parameter.
 Utilities: these are data-processing programmes dedicated to the specific purposes
of SIGNER operation, often to allow the transfer of information between the main software on
offer. The utilities used by SIGNER have, for the major part, been designed thanks to UNDP/
DESA assistance.

IV.4. Overview of the Nigeria Databases

The Department of Hydrology and Hydrogeology of the Federal Ministry of Water Resources in
2001 established a database and a Hydrological and hydrogeological Geographic Information
System for the entire country. Thus ArcGIS 8.0 and the MS Access management system for
32 Databases were used to create a relational database management system. In 2007, ArcGIS 9.1
Replaced the GIS software used.

Currently the database contains maps of Nigeria in various themes such as the State, the local
government, 12 river basins and 8 border area of hydrological sectors and other attributes. In
addition, data on the boreholes are plotted in these maps, the river gauging stations and other
water infrastructure.

There are also projects on data collection that will enhance the database. These projects are in
advanced stages of completion.

In addition, the department that is now moving towards a Hydrological Services Agency of Nigeria
is about to embark on the management network in order to facilitate access to PCS data and
information from the database. This must be done under the project called the National Hydrologi-
cal Network Management Information Systems (HYDRONET).

The project “Iullemeden Aquifer System” will benefit from this database.
V. HYDRO-GEOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE IULLE-
MEDEN AQUIFER SYSTEM
The Iullemeden Aquifer System is bordered to the North by the Hoggar, Aïr and Adrar des Iforas
mounts, which constitute the Tuareg shield, to the South by the plateau of Jos (in Nigeria) and, to
the West, by Liptako-Gourma (figure 13).

The Iullemeden basin consists of sedimentary formations that range from the Cambrian-Ordovi-
cian to Tertiary and Quaternary. In this case, the Iullemeden Aquifer System is shared by Algeria,
Benin, Mali, Niger and Nigeria34. t’s represented in Algeria by the Cambrian-Ordovician formations
in the Tin Séririne syncline. In Nigeria, the Iullemeden basin extends “the Sokoto Basin”. In the

33
Légende pages suivantes

Figure 13 : Geological map of the Iullemeden Aquifer System

34.
Dodo A., 1992. «Study of Deep Flows in the Large Sedimentary Basin of Niger: Identification of the Aquifers and Elici-
ting their Operation”. Doctoral Dissertation (in the French language), Neuchâtel University (Switzerland), 101 pages
34
35
 eastern part, the Iullemeden basin is separated to the Chad Basin by the dorsal of the Damaga-
ram Mounio crystalline basement. This dorsal is not only geologic, but also hydrogeologic; it rep-
resents an important groundwater flow boundary limit in the same formation of the Continental
intercalaire/ Continental Hamadien.

Under the current project “Managing hydrogeological Risk in the Iullemeden Aquifer System (IAS)”,
this system consists only of the Continental intercalaire aquifer (Cretaceous), the Continental Ter-
minal (Tertiary), the Quaternary, and the Niger River (boundary condition with imposed Hydraulic
head). In this case, the project considers Mali, Niger and Nigeria (Table 2). This table the out-
come of a lithostratigraphic correlation between the three countries developed according to the
lithological data from boreholes and the geological information contained in the national water
resources management master plans. The Iullemeden Aquifer System covers an area of 500000
km2. It is important to remember that the wider Continental intercalaire begins with the Permian
sandstone formations.

V.1. The Continental intercalaire

36 The Continental intercalaire aquifer is a set of the Gundumi and Illo geological formation in Nigeria.
In both Mali and Niger, from bottom to up, the Continental intercalaire includes the Tegama sand-
stone, Farak clays and Continental hamadien. In Western part of the Iullemeden Basin, the Con-
tinental intercalaire is covered by Upper marine Cretaceous formations or those of Continental
Terminal; aquifer is put in charge (Rabé 2005, Sidoro, 2005; Hanidu, 2005).

It is the largest multi-aquifer system in the Iullemeden basin. It is unconfined in its border and
confined at the center and the Western part of Mali. The groundwater is converging radial to the
Niger River in South-West in this area, the artesian aquifer is captive (28m above ground, 1967),
and the river is draining.

The groundwater level in theunconfined part is generally quite deep, between 40 and 60 m. In
Niger, in Tahoua and Dosso Department (unconfined), groundwater levels are much shallower,
often less than 20 m.

It has two drainage axes: the North-South at the base of the Azaouak wadi and the North-East/
South-West and plumb the Goulbi Maradi (Niger) - Sokoto (Nigeria). The respective average values
of the hydraulic gradient are 2.6 x 10-4 and 3.5 x 10-4.

A highly transmissive sandy layer (average value = 1 x 10-2 m2/s) occupies the central part of
the aquifer with its counterpart in the Sokoto Basin, Nigeria (Guindumi formation). Otherwise, the
values of hydrodynamic parameters are:
 Niger Nigeria Mali
Transmissivity (m2/s) 1 x 10-3 à 1 x 10-5 5 x 10-5 à 9 x 10-5 2,975 m²/h
5% à 10%
(unconfined aquifer) 2 x 10-4 à 5 x 10-4
Storage Coefficient 5% à 8%
0.5 x 10-3 à 5 x 10-3 (confined aquifer)
(confined aquifer)

In Niger, the specific yield ranges from 0.1 to 26 m3/h/m. In the transmissive layer, it is an
average of 13 m3/h/m with the maximum values of 7 and 26 m3/h/m m3/h/m. In confined
areas, the yields are almost always higher than 50 m³/h and may exceed 100 m³/h.

The salinity varies from 0.1 m/g to 1 g/l to the River Niger. In Mali, the waters are fresh with
a dry residue of not more than 722mg/l (except El Tin Bagra borehole at the north end where
the global mineralization reaches 3,926 g/l. The water temperature is high in Niger where it
may exceed 50°C. This parameter must not be neglected for irrigation use. The levels vary from
96% 14C PCM in the extreme north part where the aquifer is unconfined, to 1% PCM center
and south part of the aquifer.

The major constraint of the economic perspective is the depth of the water point abstractions,
especially in the confined aquifer: it ranges from 100 to 800m. The pumping depth is not a con-
straint since the groundwater level is shallow and sometimes artesian especially in the South
part.

There are, however, in the Upper Cretaceous marine aquifer (secondary) in Mali and Niger.

V.2. The Continental Terminal

The Continental Terminal (CT) is a multi-layer aquifer system in Niger, but only one layer in Mali and
Nigeria (Gwandu). It includes the quaternary alluvial formations.
37
Much of the population lives on the CT area. Due to the easy accessibility and the good water qual-
ity, this aquifer system plays a fundamental role in the sustainable management of groundwater
resources of the three countries.

The Continental Terminal is contained in the tertiary continental sediments of the Iullemeden ba-
sin. These sediments occur by alternating sand and clay with many and rapid lateral and vertical
changes of the facies. Thus, its lithology is complex.

In Niger, the Continental Terminal consists of three sets of aquifer formations well recognized:
the Continental Terminal 1 (CT1) or “the Siderolithic Series”; the Continental Terminal 2 (CT2) or
“the Clayey to sandy Series with lignite” and the Continental Terminal 3 (CT3) or “Series of clayey
sandstone of the Middle Niger”. Currently, it agrred to consider these series as formations as fol-
low, from bottom to top:
 the lower sandy Series (CT1)
 the clays and greenish silts Series (CT2)
 the ferruginous oolites formation (CT2 or CT3 according to the authors)
 the clayey and silty gray Formation (CT3)
 the sandy or silty formation (CT3).
 V.2.1. The Continental Terminal 1 (CT1)
CT1 is confined aquifer except in its peripheral part. It is slick divergent. The average value the
hydraulic gradient is 4 x 10-4. There is a sedimentological discontinuity in the western part. There
is a piezometric dome elongated in a direction NW-SE, probably due to a recharge per ascensum
(seepage). These patterns are oriented NE-SW and NW-SE.

The groundwater level is still shallow and artesian, except in the western Tahoua where it can
exceed 35m in depth. In the Dallol Bosso and Maouri, the aquifer is artesian, where the heights of
artesianism can reach 20m.

The transmissivity varies from 1 x 10-4 to 1 x 10-2 m2/s. The specific discharge varies from 1 to
4 m3/h/m.

The waters are generally fresh (0.5 g/l) except in the western part of the discontinuity (1.4 g/l).
Important and High-grade of CO2 are frequently recorded, making the water corrosive.

The exploitation of this aquifer has two drawbacks: high flow rates, and deep boreholes needed to
capture the aquifer. Moreover, hydrogeological and isotopic data show that the waters are very old.

V.2.2. The Continental Terminal 2 (CT2)

To the west of the meridian 2°30 ‘, the sands become clayey and the aquifer is then the Oolitic
formation above them, composed by the ferruginous sandstone with oolites.

The aquifer is confined aquifer and radial convergent. These patterns are oriented NW-SE and
NE-SW. Their respective average hydraulic gradients are 1.2 x 10-4 and 2 x 10-3. Piezometric
elongated dome is observed in the SE part of the aquifer in a direction NNE-SSW.

Piezometric levels of this semi-confined aquifer are deep: between 30 and 60m except in the Dal-
lols where the water level is less than 10m, and the plateaus areas by which the effect of topog-
raphy, it can be more than 80m. This aquifer is never artesian.

38 Transmissivity values range from 10-3 to 10-2 m2/s, the specific discharge from 4 to 12 m3/h/m.

The waters are fresh (average salinity = 0.4 g/l) except in its western part where the salinity
reached 1.2 g/l. The CO2 grades are important and require the establishment of adequate equip-
ments (for boreholes) to prevent corrosion.

V.2.3. The Continental Terminal 3 (CT3)

The aquifer is unconfined aquifer is radial convergent. His main Drainage axis are oriented NW-SE
and NE-SW. Their respective hydraulic gradients are 2 x 10-4 to 3.2 x 10-4. Piezometric domes and
depressions characterize this aquifer.

The groundwater level ranges generally between 20m and 50m. In the lower Dallols, it is very near
to the surface; many permanent ponds are linked to the groundwater table. On the plates, the level
is usually beyond 60m.

Seasonal fluctuations of groundwater level have average amplitude of 65 cm. They reach 4m lo-
cally.

Transmissivity values are between 1 x 10-2 and 1 x 10-2 m2/s, for the specific yield between 4 to
15 m3/h/m. The waters are generally fresh (salinity less than 0.4 g/l). However, in the center
and southwest of the aquifer, the waters are highly mineralized (1 g/l).

The exploitation of this aquifer is possible with wells. Outside Dallols areas, wells should be deep
enough, until fifty meters in general. The aquifer is reached by the traditional wells, but the abstrac-
 Mali Niger Nigeria
Age
Group Formation Group Formation Group Formation
Alluvial, dunes Alluvium
Quaternary Quaternary Alluvial, dunes Aquifer Quaternary Quaternary
Aquifer Aquifer
Continental Series of clayey
Pliocene Terminal CT3 sandstone of the
Aquifer Middle Niger
Continental Sandy and clayey sandstone
Terminal Aquifer
Continental
Lignite-dominated
Miocene Terminal CT2 Gwandu
clayey-sandy series Continental Terminal
Aquifer Aquifer
Continental
Tertiary Oligocene Terminal CT1 Siderolithic series
Aquifer
Eocene Middle Eocene Schists

Terminal Limestone and marly – Kalambaina

Palaeocene sandy with phosphated level Aquitard
Limestone, payra-
Palaeocene Marine Palaeocene Sokoto
ced schists
Lower Limestone and sand
Dange
Palaeocene Aquifer
Wurno
Aquitard
Upper Senomanian – Sandstone - Clayey Turonian – Senonian Marine Cretaceous Dukamaje
Rima (Mæstrichtian)
Cretaceous Maestrichtian Aquifer (2-3 couches) (While limestone)
Taloka
Aquitard
Cretaceous Continental
Quartzitic sandstone, micro- Hamadian
Continental Continental interca-
Lower Continental conglomeratic, arkoses, Clays of the Farak Gundumi & Illo
intercalaire laire / Continental
Cretaceous intercalaire sand, Tégama clays Aquifer
Aquifer Hamadian
Aquifer Tégama sandstone

Table 2: Litho-stratigraphic correlation between Mali, Niger and Nigeria, in the Iullemeden Aquifer System
39
 tion is not especially easy, either by the traditional system or by hand pump. However, the aquifer
is sensitive to pollution. Particular attention should be paid to the ancillary facilities of wells (curbs,
anti-quagmire, and anti-slough, drinkers) to maintain water quality.

A comparative table of the formations identified in the countries has been prepared based on data
and information collected by national consultants, OSS investigations and national committees
for coordinating and monitoring of project activities (Table 2). This table has achieved lithostrati-
graphic correlations between countries and presents the composition of the two main aquifers
of the basin.

40
VI. IDENTIFICATION AND “PRIORITISATION” OF
TRANSBORDARY ISSUES
The National Committees carried out the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) for Coordina-
tion and Monitoring of Project Activities (CNCS), as well as by national consultations, based on the
information and data existing and available. The CNCS, which is set up in each of the countries, is
multidisciplinary; comprises both governmental institutions (Ministries of Water, the Environment,
Agriculture, Stockbreeding, Foreign Affairs (with regard to Transboundary legal aspects), and Wa-
ter Utilities), and non governmental organizations with an interest in Water issues.

The activities of the CNCS were carried out under the form of discussion sessions in their periodic
meetings intended to identify the risks to the SAI water resources, as well as to examine the in-
vestigations carried out by the national consultants. Besides, national workshops dedicated to the
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) were organized to validate these Transboundary risks.
Thus, 14 risks were identified in Mali, 8 in Niger and 24 in Nigeria (Table of the risks identified
by the national consultants and committees).

The reports on the proceedings of these meetings have highlighted the richness of the data avail-
able in the fields of surface water, groundwater, geology and climatology. These reports are also
informative about the existence of a national database, studies and projects conducted, and aqui-
fer models developed, which are likely to be of relevance to the SAI.

The Transboundary risks which represent a threat to water resources, as analysed by the CNCS
and national consultant, and in view of the investigations conducted by the OSS team, are sum-

41
marised hereunder.

VI.1. Impact of Climate Variability and Change

It has been noted that, for the whole zone, there was a wet period extending from the beginning
of the 20th century up to the year 1967 and that there has been a dry period running from 1968
to date. The rainfall deficit has translated into a decrease in rainfall by about 20% to 50%, induc-
ing, on the one hand, a shift of the isohyets by about 200 km towards the south and, on the other
hand, a decrease in the flows of Niger River ranging from 20% (Mali) to 36% (Niger), as well as a
decrease in aquifer recharge by the hydrographic network and useful rain.

This shift has resulted in accelerated degradation of farmland, as well as the migration of the
population to, and concentration in, the wetlands in the South, thus exacerbating the deforestation
phenomenon.

VI.2. Deforestation
Wood cutting for energy production is a job- and income-generating activity. It produces 270
879 steres (that is, 37 095 quintals of charcoal) in Mali, and 827 442 tons of wood in Niger.
Estimates for Nigeria are not available. This wood and charcoal production induces, on annual
average, a land loss of 100 000 ha in Mali, and of 338 180 ha in Niger.
 Land loss exacerbates wind and water erosion which contributes in the sanding up of the water
network (Niger River, ponds). Sanding up tends to reduce aquifer recharge by useful rain, as well
as affects the recharge of the water network by blocking off the recharge areas. Moreover, silting
of the riverbeds does induce, by occupying the place of flow water in the Niger riverbed, frequent
floods for normal flows.

VI.3. Exploitation of Water Resources

Table 3 presents the abstractions from water resources to meet water needs concerning all tap-
ping structures.

Niger Nigeria Mali

Drinking water supply 117,6 (of which 14.3 15,4 (1990)

1,3 (mainly River water)
(million m3/year) River water for Niamey) 32,3 (2020)
Stock-breeding (million
84 119,77 271,36
m3/year)
Industries, Mines (million
- 9,9 -
m3/year)

Table 3 : Water consumption as per socio-economic sector

In spite of the irrigable land potential (390 000 ha in Mali, 226 600 ha in Niger and 42 272 ha
in Nigeria) and of the land irrigated (26 030 ha in Mali, 13 500 ha in Niger and 27 230 ha in Ni-
geria) by River water and/or drillings or wells, there are no estimates available on the abstracted
volumes. Yet, this activity is one of the largest water-consuming activities.

VI.4. Decline of Artesianism

42 This phenomenon has been reported on artesian drillings tapping the Continental intercalaire in
Mali and Niger, and/or the Continental Terminal in Niger. These flowing drillings had remained
open since their date of construction, thus sometimes creating ponds in their immediate vicinity.
The flows have decreased since then, but they are not monitored to appreciate the decrease of
artesianism and to seek to identify the causes (natural decrease or sign of overexploitation?).

VI.5. Water Pollution

A significant part of the pollutants disposed of in the wild (agricultural waste) ends up in Niger
River, either directly or by runoff. Irrigated crops are practised especially based on water from the
Niger which feeds the aquifer in period of high waters. This income-generating activity uses chemi-
cal fertilisers and pesticides. These amount, on annual average (between 2000 and 2002), to 10
000 tons of fertilisers (Urea, NPK 15-15-15, Super triple, phosphates of Tahoua, DAP) in Niger.

In Mali, 200 tons of fertilisers, on average, end up every year in the Niger River or in the aqui-
fers around Bamako. In 1994, some 5 939 tons of urea and 4 055 tons of ammonia phosphate
were applied to the 47000 ha of irrigated land.

In Nigeria, over 15 million people and as many head of cattle live in the Sokoto basin based on
exploiting the aquifers by traditional wells that are not provided with a protection zone. High nitrate
contents, with respect to normal, are frequently recorded in these exploitation structures.
VI.6. Soil Salinisation
Soil degradation, by salinisation and alkalisation in Mali, affects 7 to 15% of developed land
which are in process of being abandoned. In Niger, the zones irrigated in the valleys along the
River, in the Dallols and in the vicinity of ponds, are affected by salinisation due to improper drain-
age of wastewater, as well as by the phenomenon of evaporation.

VI.7. Non Concerted Exploitation of Water Resources

In spite of the existing sub-regional structures, such as the ABN (Niger Basin Authority), ECOW-
AS (GIRE), CILSS (Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel), the ALG
(Liptako-Gourma Authority), there is no organization ensuring a monitoring of the exploitation
of groundwater resources. Only ABN is provided with a surface water monitoring network with
has scientific tools to estimate in real time the flows of the River at a given station, but not the
abstractions made from the River. On the other hand, aquifer monitoring networks remain each
country’s self-imposed duty. These networks are not adapted for aquifer monitoring and evalua-
tion, but were intended from the start to meet the water demand of the population.

Conclusion

Real risks are threatening, both in quality and in quantity, the groundwater (as well as the surface
water) resources. However, these risks have been identified based on the database and the infor-
mation derived from the documentation available. Their assessment (Table 4) remains more of a
qualitative nature, even though major studies have been conducted in the zone.

Catégorie de risques Mali Niger Nigeria Valeur

moyenne
Changements climatiques : inondations, séche-
H H H H
resses
Déforestation H H H H
L = Low
43
Exploitation des ressources en eau L L L L
Déclin de l’artésianisme non maîtrisé F H H H
H = High F = Fair

Pollution des eaux H H H H

Salinisation des sols F F L F
Réseau de suivi des aquifères inadéquat H F H H
Exploitation non concertée des ressources en
H H H H
eau

Table 4 : Qualitative assessment of the risks to the SAI aquifers.

To appreciate the Transboundary likelihood of these risks, as well as the extent of their relevance,
the need for their quantification has led to the formulation of a recommendation, the first of a
set of five recommendations issuing from the meeting of the Project Steering Committee held in
Abuja on February 25 and 26, 2006. The recommendation goes as follows: «to refine the Trans-
boundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) on the level of the States of the SAI based on a quantitative
evaluation of the relevant risks”.

In this particular case, the list of the risks identified by each of the countries has been revisited.
This task forms the subject of the section on detailed prioritisation of the risks
 1. Inadequate knowledge about the aquifers and their relation with surface water

2. Discrepancies in basic understanding and perceptions of the SAI in the different countries

3. Impact of water development schemes on the shared water resources

4. Mismatch between the use of groundwater and of surface water

5. Management of water related issues on the wrong scale: issues related to the basin as a
whole addressed on local and sub-basin level and vice versa

6. Abusive, non planned exploitation and non concerted management of shared aquifers

7. Non planned and non sustainable exploitation of very ancient waters

Mali

8. Exploitation and utilisation of unfit and/ or poor quality groundwater

9. Impact of land use on groundwater resources

10. Impact of polluting use of land and water in recharge zones

11. Irreversible contamination with pollutants from deep drillings in mining and oil exploitation
zones

12. Impact of deforestation

13. Impact of climate change on aquifers

14. Uneven space distribution of water resources

1. Modification of the characteristics of underground flow

2. Modification of the piezometric area of an aquifer

44 3. Degradation of water quality

4. Degradation of biodiversity in Transboundary aquifer discharge zones

Niger

5. Impacts of climate change on Transboundary aquifers with a low recharge rate

6. Impediments to the socio-economic development of certain countries sharing the SAI

through degradation of the natural resources (water, soil, air…)

7. Conflicts and disputes related to water

8. Disruption of the physical integrity of the groundwater resource (Aquifer)

Table 5 : Risks identified by the countries in national committees or national-level workshops.

 1. Groundwater contamination and pollution

2. Land Degradation, Agricultural land degradation and post harvest losses

3. Loss of strategic water resources

4. Uncontrolled Artesian flows

5. Inadequate monitoring networks

6. Absence of single authority in charge of the overall management of the IAS

7. Increasing population growth leading to increasing demand on the aquifer

8. Movement of people to and fro in the region

9. Lack of control and monitoring of the various aquifers within the basin

10. Network systems of monitoring of the various aquifers

11. Exchange of information among aquifer users

12. Sensitization of people of the area on what their role should be

13. Critically, examine the issue of climate change with respect to aquifer recharge in the Iullemeden
basin

14. Look at the existing institutions on ground, their functionality and what need to be done to make them
effective in the discharge of their respective mandates

15. Examine the consultation mechanisms in place among the relevant institutions within the country
Nigeria

16. Examine the groundwater flow pattern in the basin with respect to pollution detection and control
measures

17. Creation of awareness of the development in groundwater exploitation among the concerned coun-
tries of IAS with respect to sustainability of the resources

18. Examine the type of relationship that exist between surface and groundwater in the Iullemeden ba-
sin

19. Examine the issue of population increase and the subsequent pressure on groundwater exploitation
45
within the basin

20. Need to modernize data collection methods in the country and recommended the use of satellite
technology, automatic pressure loggers in monitoring wells etc., but expressed concern on funding to
undertake field baseline data collection and the security of data collection equipment

21. The need to focus on the issue of capacity building so that whatever investment made on water re-
sources development does not lay waste due to management problems

22. The NBA, by its mandate and treaty setting it up does not cover groundwater and that it would be
difficult to amend the treaty to cover the IAS but rather that a separate institution in the like of the NBA
be set up to handle the basin

23. The hydrogeological section of the Nigerian portion of the Iullemeden Aquifer System should be cor-
related with that of the Niger Republic

24. Afforestation programmes be effected in the basin to improve recharge and soil conservation

Table 5 (continued) : Risks identified by the countries in national committees or national-level

workshops.
VII. FINAL DETAILED PRIORITISATION OF TRANS-
BOUNDARY ISSUES
An analysis of the list of the risks identified by the countries (14 risks identified in Mali, 8 in Niger
and 24 in Nigeria) (Table 5) is necessary in order to ascertain the following aspects in particular:
 the transboundary nature of the identified risk;
 the scope of the risk with respect to national priorities and regional and international conven-
tions, as well as the various global initiatives;

the impacts of the risk on economy, the environment and human health;

the benefits expected upon examination of the risk.

This analysis has thus revealed, among others, that certain risks are causes or consequences
and/or impacts. Other Transboundary risks related, above all, to the natural surface resources:
loss of biological diversity, for instance. This detailed prioritisation of the Transboundary risks has
been conducted jointly with the countries and the OSS project team.

Such is the case, for instance, of the decline of artesianism or the decrease in the piezometric
level of the aquifers, both of which are consequences of the combined effects of water abstrac-
tions made and the impact of climate variability and change. The phenomenon of deforestation
belongs in the causes of the climate change contributing in global warming. Aquifer pollution is a
major risk. The exploitation of water resources is a cause of water reduction. The non-concerted
exploitation of the common resource belongs in water governance, which is related to the legal
and institutional systems of each country.

Other Transboundary risks relate especially to natural surface resources. There is the case of the 47
loss of biological diversity. In the context of the study of groundwater resources, the loss of biologi-
cal diversity may be considered as the consequence of several factors:
1. degradation of the medium due to human activities (deforestation, for example),
2. impact of climate change (recurring droughts),
3. generalized decrease of the level of the aquifers, inducing an increase in the non saturated
area, then the drying up of the areas of the plant roots, leading thus to aridity and then to de-
sertification.

In view of this second analysis, the Transboundary risks which may be regarded as major concerns
common to the three countries and for which the efforts of a single country could not possibly find
a correcting and lasting solution, are of three types:
 Change in water availability: this relates to a change in groundwater potential in terms of:
• either an increase due to a recharge of the aquifers or other inflows,
• or else a reduction or scarcity of the resource. This reduction may be due to the combined
effects of gradual abstractions and of a reduction of the recharge of the aquifers because of:

a decrease in rainfall,

sanding up of the water infiltration areas,

silting of the hydrographic network of Niger River which, in certain locations, feeds the
 aquifers in period of high waters and where its low water level is sustained by the ground-
water;
 degradation of water quality: this is equated with aquifer pollution due to the disposal of a
wastewater not meeting quality standards, and of the rise of abnormally mineralised ground-
water (fluorides);
 climate variability and/ or change: this major concern, often defined as «climate change/
variability», has the characteristic of being at the same time the cause and the consequence
of certain situations.

In view of the above, the countries and the national experts, assisted by the OSS team, have under-
taken an in-depth consideration of these three major concerns through national workshops. This
consideration has led to the identification, for each of the three major risks, of its environmental
impacts and its socio-economic consequences, as well as the identification and analysis of its
causes of which water governance was analysed.

As regards the first Transboundary risk, the change of water availability is equated with the reduc-
tion of the water resource. Indeed, the results of the mathematical modelling of the Iullemeden
Aquifer System have highlighted the overexploitation limit exceeded in 1995 (Figure 15), a year
as from which the abstractions (152 million m3/year) exceeded the recharge (red line) estimated
as 150 million m3/year in 1970.

These are esti-

mates based on the
data provided by the
countries. These
data on abstrac-
tions are those
resulting from the
exploitation flows
of the water point
48 (drilling, well) at the
date of its construc-
tion, and this, for a
four (4) hour dura-
tion of exploitation
per day. These es-
timates remain to
be corroborated
by an exhaustive in-
ventory of the real Figure 14 : The overexploitation limit was exceeded in 1995 according to
abstractions made the preliminary estimates. The annual abstractions, estimated as 152 million
from all the exploi- m3, would now be in excess of the recharge which is of 150 million m3 par
tation structures. year.
.

VIII. ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND SO-

CIOECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
The analyses of the environmental impacts, as well as of the social and economic consequences,
of each risk have been conducted from a qualitative point of view by the National Coordination
and Monitoring Committees (CNCS) and by the national experts. The need for field investigation
to collect quantifiable data, as well as their monitoring over time and in space, was expressed by
the countries.

This attests to the pioneer nature of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) applied to the
water resources of the aquifers shared by the countries. Indeed, in the majority of cases, the ob-
jective and quantifiable information collected refers to Transboundary surface water.

The objective of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) is not to duplicate these studies
of assessment of environmental impact and socio-economic consequences, but to select those
which appear relevant and adaptable to the problems of the shared groundwater resource with
a view to apprehending the threats pertaining in each risk for the ecosystem and for changes in
the well-being of people.

VIII.1. Analysis of environmental impacts

The environmental impacts may be defined as the effects of a Transboundary risk on the integrity
of an ecosystem. Their analysis is based on three indicators, namely the indicators of status, im-
pact and pressure in line with those developed by the model of OECD (Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development) which has been using, since 1989, a set of indicators based on a 49
dynamic methodological approach of the phenomena (indicator of state, pressure, and response)
, (IAURIF, 2005):
 the status indicators (or state) describe the environmental situation and specify the ecologi-
cal, physical and socio-economic situation of a medium at a given time, as well as the changes
in state over time;
 the impact indicators describe and quantify the impacts of each Transboundary risk.
 the pressure indicators account for the pressure exerted by human activities on the envi-
ronment and the natural processes which cause changes on the medium. They support the
causal chain developed in order to resolve priority Transboundary problems.

The quantification of the impact of the risks requires additional investigations and research work,
especially of the field type. Based on the information available, the use of these indicators will be,
as far as possible, of a more qualitative nature.

VIII.1.1. Analysis of the environmental impacts of the Change in availabil-

ity of groundwater
 Status indicators. The change in the availability of groundwater, seen from the point of view
of the reduction in the water potential, may affect the environment under several forms described
hereunder.
  Increase in the thickness of the unsaturated area of the non confined aquifers: The reduc-
tion of groundwater induces a decrease of piezometric levels (up to 7 metres in Niger), gener-
ating an increase in the thickness of the unsaturated area of the aquifers. The latter is made
up of three phases: the liquid phase (water), the solid phase (the rock), and the gas phase (air
at atmospheric pressure). The increase in its thickness tends to reduce the liquid phase and
to increase the temperature. This contributes in drying up the plant roots and, hence, to de-
sertification of the zone concerned, as well as to the degradation of the soil.

In certain cases, the increase in the thickness of the unsaturated area significantly reduces the
recharge of the aquifers by rain and by river runoff water.
 Costly investments: The search for alternatives leads to a recourse to groundwater that is
reachable at great depths, sometimes being quite mineralised and presenting a high temper-
ature. This increases the technical and technological difficulties of access to the resource, as
well as the more and more exorbitant costs of their exploitation (recurrent flushing of existing
drillings, construction of new drillings).
 Decrease in land productivity: In crop zones irrigated by groundwater, the decrease in ground-
water induces a shrinkage of irrigated land and, hence, a decrease in productivity.

 Impact indicators. The displacement of the population abandoning the drying up water points
(drillings, wells) or dried resources (springs) due to a gradual decrease of groundwater exacer-
bates the demographic pressure on the more productive structures and multiplies the number of
persons having no access to drinking water in sufficient quantity and acceptable quality (Table 6).

MDG MDG
Population having access to quality sani- Population having facilitated access to a
Country tation equipment quality water source
(%) (%)

1990 2002 1990 2002

Norway .. .. 100 100

50 USA
Germany
100
..
100
..
100
100
100
100

Brazil 70 75 83 89

India 12 30 68 86
Nigeria 39 38 49 60
Mali 36 45 34 48
Niger 7 12 40 46

Table 6 : Water, sanitary conditions (UNDP Report, 2005).

 Pressure indicators. The change in availability of water resources can affect human activi-
ties and the environment with regard to the following aspects:

Increase in the number of people having no access to drinking water: The increase in ground-
water tapping heights contributes in the abandonment of dried up water points (drying up wells,
dried springs) for those of high productivity, wetlands or any other place where access to water is
relatively easy. This displacement may also involve rural migration to city outskirts that are serv-
iced by the drinking water supply network.

Increasingly exorbitant exploitation cost: The tapping of aquifers at increasingly excessive depths
induces high costs for the construction of deep drillings and maintenance of the structures.
Overgrazing: This situation is frequent, especially during droughts when recharge is low and the
water levels in the water points are increasingly deeper. This situation gives rise, among others, to
conflicts among the various users (stock-breeders, farmers, etc.).

VIII.1.2. Analysis of the environmental impacts of the Degradation of

groundwater quality
 Status indicators. Deterioration of human health: The deterioration of the quality of con-
sumed groundwater leads to a recourse to surface water, particularly to ponds in certain places.
This type of water exposes the population to water-related diseases. These include diseases con-
tracted by ingestion (dracunculosis, cholera, diarrhoeas) or by contact (schistosomiasis) or, still,
diseases for which water is the host medium of parasite larvae (malaria, river blindness, etc.).

Soil degradation: The degradation of the quality of the groundwater used for irrigated agriculture
induces a decrease in fertility and contributes in soil salinisation.

 Impact indicators. Water-related diseases are estimated as over 80% of all pathology (Di-
arra and Cissé, 2004).

 Pressure indicators. High cost of exploitation: The farming practised based on the use of
groundwater (unfit for crop growing), leads to an increasing use of chemical products (fertilisers,
pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides) and natural products (excreta, manure, etc.).

VIII.1.3. Analysis of the environmental impacts of Climate variability/

change
 Status indicators. Decrease in aquifer recharge: The climate variability/ change, reported
since 1968-1970, has induced a decrease in recharge due to a drop in rainfall and in surface
runoff by about 20% to 30% (Mahé and Olivry, 1995). The decrease in recharge is estimated, in
terms of significant drop in water level in wells and drillings, as between 3 meters and 7 meters
in Niger (figure 15).

A NGOUA L M A T A F70 K A RT A K A YE K OURFI N GA LA DI M A

A nnées Hy dr ol ogi ques

P 3B M DJ I RA T A OUA F47

51
1, 00

3, 00

5, 00

7, 00

9, 00

11, 00

13, 00

15, 00

Figure 15 : Variations in water level reported (from 1991 to 2000) in the drillings and piezome-
ters in the valley of Goulbi de Maradi (Niger).
  Impact indicators. Rate of GHG emissions: The emission of such greenhouse gases, of
which Carbon dioxide, is insignificant in the Iullemeden zone by comparison with developed coun-
tries (Norway, USA, Germany) and fairly developed countries (Brazil, India) (Table 7). On the other
hand, the consumption of traditional fuel, such as wood (85%), constitutes the main energy source
by deforestation.

Consumption GMD
Per ca- GMD
of traditional pita power Carbon dioxide emissions
fuels GDP units produced
consumption per kilo
Country
(in % of the total Share in
(kilowatt/hour) By inh
energy consumed) (PPA 2000) world total
(in tons) (%)
2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 2000
Norway .. 22400 26640 4,6 6,1 10,6 12,2 0,2

USA 3,6 10336 13 456 2,8 4,4 20,0 20,1 24,4

Germany .. .. 6 989 3,9 6,2 .. 9,8 3,4

Brazil 26,7 1145 2183 7,4 6,8 1,5 1,8 1,3

India 20,0 173 569 3,3 5,0 0,5 1,2 4,7

Nigeria 46,4 108 148 1,4 1,3 1,0 0,4 0,2

Mali 85,0 15 33 .. .. 0,1 (.) (.)

Niger 85,3 39 40 .. .. 0,1 0,1 (.)

Table 7 : Energy and Environment (UNDP Report, 2005).

 Pressure indicators. Loss of land areas by deforestation: As regards land degradation,

52 0.7% of the forest potential is lost in Mali, as against 3.7% in Niger and 2.7% in Nigeria. In Mali,
over 100,000 ha of forests disappears every year. Wood cutting for firewood and charcoal is
estimated, on the whole, as 5 million tons per year. In Niger, there are annually some 300,000
hectares cleared from forest areas. In Nigeria, firewood accounts for over 85% of domestic en-
ergy, although Nigeria is a oil exporting country. Annual production is about 43.3 million tons
for wood.

VIII.2. Analysis of socio-economic consequences

The socio-economic consequences may be defined as the changes in well-being of persons as
resulting from the corresponding Transboundary risk or from its environmental impacts.

The assessment of socio-economic consequences may normally be classified according to the

extent of detailed analysis, namely:
 Declaration: The range of socio-economic consequences related to a Transboundary risk is
identified by mere declaration that the consequence exists;
 Quantification: Figures are related to the consequences to specify their scale. These figures
may refer to the scope or frequency of such events;
 Indicative evaluation: Indicative monetary values are assigned to the costs that are related to
the consequences. The monetary values present the advantage of aggregating and compar-
 ing the Transboundary risks, as well as of measuring the benefit that may be derived based
on their consideration;
 Overall evaluation: This highest evaluation level takes into consideration all the economic
costs related to the consequence.

In most cases, declaration is more applied to describing the scope of the social and economic
consequences of the Transboundary risk.

VIII.2.1. Analysis of the socio-economic consequences of the Change in

availability of groundwater
The reduction in the groundwater of the Iullemeden Aquifer System may induce socio-economic
consequences that have an adverse impact on agricultural, animal and -hence- dairy production.
This situation may lead to food insecurity. Agricultural production will decrease gradually. The
incomes of the stockbreeders will tend to increasingly drop. Certain farmers and stockbreeders
would be likely to change their economic activities (via exodus), or end up unemployed.

This reduction in water may also slow down, if not bring to a halt, industrial and mining works.
This stoppage results in a reduction in the incomes of the companies which will then be forced to
significantly lay off their personnel, thus causing a drastic reduction of their contribution to the na-
tional budget. This drop in State revenue may, in turn, have a major impact on such social sectors
as education and health. When the water resource becomes scarce, the various socio-economic
activities may end up in a situation of competition over exploitation which may jeopardise the ef-
forts of a sustainable management of the resource.

The reduction or scarcity of water may also have other adverse consequences on the socio-
economic activities, of which in particular:
 migration of the population to other countries, with the expected socio-economic consequenc-
es resulting therefore (decrease in national production, social and economic misbalances,
etc.);
 transhumance of the livestock to more remote zones during the dry period, which lasts be-
tween 9 and 10 months, thus inducing loss of the livestock and of the stockbreeders in-
comes;
53
 rise in the costs of maintenance and upkeep of the water infrastructures due to an acceler-
ated wear resulting from the overexploitation of the water points. This increase in cost and
the insufficient organization of the users of these water points result in non operating state of
several equipped drillings;
 conflicts around the water points which are prompted to meet the multiple activities needs;
 disintegration of village solidarity (gradual loss of mutual social support, increase in household
problems);
 increase in the time women spend on the water-fetching chore in rural areas, which affects
their income-generating activities and, consequently, causes a reduction of their purchasing
power.

VIII.2.2. Degradation of the quality of groundwater

Pollution of the aquifers may cause several diseases whose treatment is not accessible to the
most vulnerable rural population. Certain diseases may irreversibly handicap the producers. Such
a situation may lead to losses of incomes and, therefore, to difficult living conditions.

The fall of the national production may have serious impacts on the national economy. Many
economic activities may be jeopardised, as is the case in particular of agricultural production,
 stock-breeding and even trade activities. Such a situation obliges the State to resort to foreign
aid to secure the expenditure required for health, education and many other basic needs of the
population.

The deterioration of water quality may be more acutely felt around multi-purpose water points
(stock-breeding, farming, drinking water) through the spread of many infectious diseases (epizoot-
ies) due to human and animal concentration, such as foot-and-mouth disease, pasteurellosis, peri-
pneumonia, symptomatic anthrax and the plague of small ruminants.

VIII.2.3. Climate variability/change

The impact of climate change on groundwater may induce social and economic consequences, of
which in particular.

Resort to irrigated farming: In West Africa, pluvial agriculture employs on average two thirds
(2/3) of the active population and contributes by about 30 % in the region’s GDP (UICN, 2003)

Population % population loyed Share of Agriculture

in the agricultural
Country in GDP
sector
(in thousands)
in 2000 (%)
(1996)*
Benin 6097 54 39
Burkina 11937 84 33
Cape Verde 428 35 12
Chad 7651 72 40
Côte d’ivoire 14786 49 26
Gambia 1305 80 27
Ghana 20212 52 10
Guinea 7430 74 22

54 Guinea Bissau
Liberia
1213
3154
79
70
62
ND
Mali 11234 80 47
Mauritania 2670 45 25
Niger 10730 86 41
Nigeria 111506 64 32
Senegal 9481 77 17
Sierra leone 4854 61 44
Togo 4629 67 42
Total/Moyenne 229317 66 29
* According to Reports by UNDP (2000) and ADB (African Development Bank) (2001).

Tableau 8 : Importance of the agricultural sector in the national economies of West Africa (UICN-BRAO,
GWP-WAWP, CILSS, 2003).

(Table 8).

The reduction of rainfall from 20% to 30%, reported over the whole West Africa region, as well
as of surface runoff in the same proportions, tend to lead the rural population to shift gradually
to irrigate farming from temporary ponds and groundwater during the dry season in arid zones
(«off-season crops”). This evolution may induce a decrease in the incomes of producers and a drop
in the countries’ economic growth rate. Indeed, the contribution of irrigated farming from ground-
water remains marginal compared with total agricultural production.

The economic value of water: The abandonment of dried up wells tapping the groundwater within
the range reachable by the peasants and farmers of the rural environment, and the resort to drill-
ings equipped with water pumping means tapping the deeper aquifers, causes the peasants and
farmers to pay for access to these modern water points. This, in turn, gives rise to rural migration
to sub-urban quarters.

Change of economic activities for certain economic operators: The loss of profits due to the
negative impacts of climate change may also lead the peasants and farmers to take up new activi-
ties which, though income-generating, may be prejudicial to the protection and the safeguard of
the environment. Such is the production of firewood for the cities and the major conurbations.

55
IX. CARTOGRAPHY OF MAJOR RISKS
In view of the results of the reflection conducted by the countries, as well as of the preliminary esti-
mates issuing from the mathematical model, a risk map has highlighted the hot spots (Figure 16).

Based on the preceding thematic anal-

yses, there emerge four (4) zones of
Transboundary risk potential (cf. map
further down). The nature of these
primary causes is connected with
factors of a geological character (na-
ture of the aquifer reservoirs, water
exchanges), of a climatic character
(variation in space and time), and of
a socio-economic character (agricul-
tural and industrial activities). Thus, in
most of the identified zones, the risks
are due to a multiplicity of causes.

The preliminary modelling estimates,

pending the data to be obtained from Figure 16 : IAS Hydro-geological risks map
field investigations, would attest to a
trend towards an overexploitation of groundwater as from 1995. The countries would be expe-
riencing, as of this year, a situation of water stress, contrary to the forecasts for 2025 by the
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa1.

57

Figure 17 : Additional drawdowns in CT (a) and Ci (b) by 2025.

In conclusion, according to the previous thematic analysis, it identifies three types of transbounda-
ry risk areas. The nature of these primary causes is related to hydrogeological (nature of aquifers,
water exchanges), climate (spatial and temporal) and socio-economic (agricultural and industrial)
factors. Thus, in most areas identified, risks have multiple causes.
1
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), «Future of the Global Environment « 2000, UNEP, Earths-
can, London, 1999
X. CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS
A causal chain is a series of statements that relate the causes of a given problem to its effects.
The causal chain is composed of three types of causes:
 immediate causes: or primary causes, are often the problem’s direct technical causes. They
are, above all, tangible;
 underlying causes: They contribute in the immediate causes and include the uses and prac-
tices applied to the key resources, as well as the related social and economic causes;
 root causes: These are often related to the key aspects of macroeconomy, consumption pat-
terns, environmental values, access to information, democratic processes, governance..

Accordingly, the three major Transboundary risks are examined based on these three types of
causes.

X.1. Immediate causes

X.1.1. Change in availability of groundwater
The aquifers of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, particularly those of the Continental Terminal, are
annually recharged, at about 3 mm/ year, for the Continental intercalaire (Ci) and at about 14 mm/
year, for the Continental Terminal, according to the study zones (Adelana et al., 2003; Bromley et
al., 1997; Desconnets, 1994; Leduc and Desconnets, 1994; Leduc et al., 1997; Leduc and Taupin,
1997; Galle La Salle et al., 2000; Taupin, 1990; Edmunds et al., 2004). However, the ultimate conclu-
sion of the risk analysis would converge gradually in the long run towards a reduction of the ground-
water potential. This concern has translated, according to the countries, in the following way:
 abusive, non regulated exploitation and non concerted management of the shared aquifers
59
(Mali)
 non regulated and non sustainable exploitation of very old water (Mali)
 impact of land use on the groundwater resources (Mali)
 impact of deforestation (Mali)
 impact of climate change on the aquifers (Mali)
 uneven spatial distribution of water resources (Mali)
 change of the piezometric area of an aquifer (Niger)
 impacts of climate change on Transboundary aquifers with a low recharge rate (Niger)
 critically, examine the issue of climate change with respect to aquifer recharge in the Iulle-
meden basin (Nigeria)
 the hydrogeological section of the Nigerian portion of the Iullemeden Aquifer System should be
correlated with that of the Niger Republic (Nigeria)
 afforestation programmes be effected in the basin to improve recharge and soil conservation
(Nigeria).

The situation is marked by the following features: non concerted and increasing exploitation of the
 water resources of a Transboundary aquifer due to an increase and multiplication of water de-
mand (demographic growth at the rate of 3% on average per year; industrial and mining activities;
development of increasingly sedentary stock-breeding, land use by mechanization of agriculture,
among other aspects). All these result in a shift and reorganisation of underground flows. This
situation can generate, in the long run, a whole range of practical consequences likely to have
international implications. In addition to human activities, the reduction of rainfall due to climate
variability/change, contributes in the reduction of aquifer recharge. Among these consequences,
it is worth mentioning the following, in particular:
 Change in the characteristics of the underground flow. The flow (directional flow) passing
through an international border is calculated by means of mathematical models. Increasing
abstractions of groundwater on both sides of the border can modify the natural flow, which is
likely to generate phenomena of interference by increase of depression cone. This risk is all
the more probable as the countries implement programmes of execution of drillings. Thus,
the location and size-measurement of drillings tapping Transboundary aquifers need to be
planned and concerted in order to ensure equitable allocation of the water resource.
 Decrease of artesianism In the central part of the SAI, a decrease in artesianism by about 2
to 3 metres has been reported in the artesian drillings tapping the Continental Terminal in Ni-
ger in the sector of Dantiandou, Balayera and Dan Kassari. Moreover, other artesian drillings,
which tap the Continental intercalaire (Ci), continuously flow in hardly renewable water since
1970, date of their execution. The majority of the SAI artesian boreholes is not regulated and
is often very little developed.

X.1.2. Degradation of groundwater quality

Mali, Niger and Nigeria are unanimous as to the degradation of the groundwater quality of the
Continental intercalaire (CI) and the Continental Terminal (CT), including Quaternary alluvia, as at-
tested by the following list of risks identified by the countries:
 exploitation and use of unwholesome and/or poor quality groundwater (Mali)
 impact of polluting use of land and water in recharge areas (Mali)
60  irreversible contamination by pollutants from the deep drillings in mining and oil drilling zones
(Mali)
 degradation of water quality (Niger)
 groundwater contamination and pollution (Nigeria).

The degradation of water quality is due to either mineral decay of the geological formation crossed
by the water, or to wastewater effluent generated by the activities of the various socio-economic
activities.

Degradation of water quality by natural phenomena

The degradation of the quality of groundwater depends on the mineral para-genesis which consti-
tutes the aquifer formation and which determines the chemical character of the existing water.
Due to ionic exchanges, water originating from the deep aquifers, i.e. confined ones, may contain
abnormally high content of certain chemical elements. This is, for instance, the case of Fluorine,
being the lightest and most electronegative of the elements belonging to the set of halogens (Chlo-
rine, Bore, Iodine, Astate).

Fluoride is abundant mainly under the form of Fluorine, of Apatites. Fluorine, of the chemical
formula CIF2, is the most widespread because it contains up to 49% of Fluoride; it is present
in the igneous (plutonic, volcanic) and sedimentary rocks. Cryolite, Na3 (AlF 6) is the ore most
used. Apatite, calcium phosphate, of the chemical formula Ca5 (PO4)3 (OH, F, Cl), covers a series
of compounds whose composition may be fairly complex: fluorapatite, Ca5(PO4)3 F, when Fluorine
is prevalent, chlorapatite, Ca5(PO4)3 Cl, when chlorine is prevalent, hydroxylapatite, Ca5(PO4)3 OH,
when hydroxyl ion OH is prevalent. It is the main constituent of the sedimentary phosphates used,
in particular, as a fertiliser. It is also found in Calcium-rich rocks (carbonatites, metamorphic lime-
stones) and alkaline magmatic rocks (granites, syenites, pegmatites and equivalent lava, hydro-
thermal seams).

Fluorapatite is predominantly present in the aquifer of the Continental intercalaire (Ci) in the bor-
der zone between Niger and Nigeria where fluorine contents reach values ranging between 9 and
12 mg/l (the standard being of 1.5 mg/l for temperature values ranging between 8°C and 12°C,
and 0.7 mg/l for temperature values ranging between 25°C and 30°C). This generates osseous
and dental fluorosis, in particular among persons aged less than 15 years.

Besides, the tapping of highly mineralised deep water during exploitation may affect the quality of
water of adjacent aquifers. This is the case of the zone of Dallol Maouri (Niger), where exchanges
of water were reported between the superimposed aquifers (Guéro, 2004).

Deterioration of water quality due to human activities

The demographic growth reported in the world in general, and in the West Africa sub-region
in particular, has been accompanied by an intensive urbanization, an intensification of industrial
activities and the exploitation of new cultivable land2 (Calamari, 1985). All these transformations
have induced a huge increase, both in quantity and in variety, of emissions of pollutants likely to
reach the aquifers.

Based on studies conducted in sixteen countries (7 of North Africa, 1 of Central Africa, 2 of East
Africa, 4 of South Africa, 2 of Europe), the main sources of contamination are as follows (Yongxin
and Brent, 2006)3: sanitation sites (latrines, septic tanks), domestic wastes, wastewater, agri-
cultural products (fertilisers, herbicides, pesticides), industrial and mining wastes (oil, etc…), poor
land management. The resulting main pollutants are microbiological (viruses, bacteria, protozoa),
chemical (organic, and inorganic of which nitrates and nitrites).

In the case of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, in particular, and of the basin of the Niger river, in
general, groundwater contamination is most likely to be generated by human activities (Adelana,
61
2006; Traoré et al., 2006), as well as by exchanges between the river water network river and the
non confined aquifers (Orange and Palangié, 2006; Ousmane et al., 2006). This is the case of the
inland delta of the Niger in the Malian portion. The increasing use of agricultural fertilizers affects
the unconfined aquifers, particularly in the vicinity of the main course of Niger River. Statistics
indicate that the average quantity of fertilizers necessary for a minimum production is of 230 kg
to the hectare (kg/ha) in 2010 and of 475 kg to the hectare in 2030. In the Iullemeden Aquifer
System, although this quantity of fertilizers is currently low, it is nonetheless gradually increasing
(Table 9, see page 62).

X.1.3. Climate variability/change

The concept of climate variability and change is related to the significant modification or variation of
the climate due to factors of natural or human origin.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article One, defines
climate change as «changes which are directly or indirectly ascribed to a human activity altering
the composition of the world atmosphere and which come to be added to the natural variability

2
Davide Calamari, 1985. State of Pollution in West and Central Africa Inland Water. FAO
3
Yongxin X and Brent U, 2006. Groundwater Pollution in Africa. Taylor & Francis ED 353 pp
 Quantity applied Year
(kg/ha)
1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002
Burkina Faso 0 2 4 7 7 13 9 0 0
Mali 3 8 10 7 13 15 9 9 9
Niger 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1
Nigeria 0 6 8 14 6 6 7 8 6
ECOWAS 3 6 8 6 9 10 8 8 9
Africa 11 20 22 22 19 22 21 22 23
Asia 28,2 73,2 87 122,2 147,4 160,9 151,9 151,6 159,1
Latine America 25,2 58,8 56,9 59,1 59,3 76,9 83,3 86,4 89,3
World 52,5 86,9 93,7 99,00 93,2 100,8 96,8 98,3 100,8

Table 9 : Quantity of fertlisers used annually in the SAI region (Source: IFDC, 2005, FAO).

of the climate observed during comparable periods”. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction be-
tween «climate change” ascribable to human activity altering the composition of the atmosphere
and «climate variability” ascribable to natural causes.

Climatic variability refers to the natural intra and inter-annual variation of the climate. Its space and
temporal range is fairly more limited. Climate change, on the other hand, represents a statistically
significant variation of the average state of the climate or its variability, persisting for a prolonged
period (generally extending over decades or more).

The Earth and especially its surface absorb solar radiation. This energy is subsequently redistributed
by atmospheric and oceanic circulation and is sent back to space with bigger wavelengths (infra-red).
On annual average, and for the Earth as a whole, the incidental solar radiation is more or less equal

62 to the radiation emitted by the sun to the Earth and the radiation emitted by the terrestrial sphere.
Any factor which modifies the solar radiation or that which is sent back into space, or still that which
modifies the redistribution of energy in the atmosphere or between the atmosphere, submerged
land and oceans, can influence the climate (IPCC, 2001).

Radiant ram designates any modification of net radiant energy proper to the Earth-atmosphere sys-
tem. A positive radiant ram tends to cause warming of the earth surface and the lower atmosphere,
while a negative ram tends to cool them.

The increase in GHG concentrations will induce a reduction of the effectiveness with which the sur-
face of the Earth reflects the incidental radiation back to space. Once emitted in the atmosphere,
many GHGs remains there for centuries, thus contributing sustainably in a positive radiant ram
(IPCC, 2001).

Volcanic activity can project in the stratosphere large quantities of sulphur gases (especially of sul-
phur dioxide), which are subsequently transformed into sulphated aerosols. Each eruption is liable
to induce a significant, though momentary, negative ram, which contributes in cooling the surface of
the Earth and the lower atmosphere for a few years (IPCC, 2001).

The changes in land assignment, whose deforestation is the main factor, seem to have produced
a negative radiant ram of - 0,2 ± 0.2 Watts/m2 (IPCC, 2001). The effect is particularly marked in
high latitudes. Deforestation has, indeed, caused there the replacement of snow-covered, fairly low
albedo forests by uncovered, snow zones with higher albedo. Africa and, to a lesser extent, the zone
of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, contributes in the production of this negative ram through the
crop growing practices (fires), and the production of firewood.

Thus, climatic variability and change are due mainly to the natural or human production of GHGs.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) confirms that the major part
of the increase reported in the global mean
temperature since the mid-1920s is most
likely due to GHGs of a human origin4. These
anthropogenic GHGs contribute in modern
warming (1750-2005) and recent warm-
ing (1950-2005). The total average surface
temperature (the average temperature of
the air close to the surface of the ground
and the temperature on the surface to the
sea) has increased since 1861 (Figure 18).
In the XXth century, this increase was of
0,6 °C ± 0,2 °C5.

The zone of the Iullemeden Aquifer System,

in particular, and of West Africa, in gen-
eral, though not classified among the GHG
producing countries, is quite vulnerable to
climate variability and change in view of its
physical and socio-economic features (UICN-
BRAO et al., 2003):
 the contrast between the hyper-arid ar-
eas (Saharan desert), to the north, and
the wet areas (southern Niger, north-
ern Nigeria), a contrast mitigated by
the configuration of the hydro-graphic
network of Niger River, of which the in-
Figure 18 : Variations of temperature on Earth surface
over the past 140 years and during the last millennium
63
land delta in Mali; (IPCC, Balance 2000).
 the lowest human development index in
the world.

X.2. Underlying causes

The main causes contribute in the immediate causes; they comprise:
 the uses and practices applied to the main resources (land use, dumps, harmful or non
sustainable practices, water uses, such as diversions and storages),
 the related social and economic causes (increasing development of the socio-economic sec-
tors, investment, waste reduction procedures, parallel management of offer and demand).

These underlying causes are analysed for the respective three major Transboundary risks.

4
Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO 2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2 0), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluorine (SF6), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),
precursors of aerosols and chemically active gases, such as sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen
oxides (NOx) and non methanic volatile organic compounds (VOCs).
5.
IPCC. Balance of Climate Change 2001: Summary Report.
 X.2.1. Change in availability of groundwater
The modification of the water resources, particularly in terms of decrease, is mainly due to social
and economic reasons.

 Groundwater uses and practices

The main causes of modification of the groundwater resources are due, on the one hand, to the
pattern of land use and to changes in this pattern and, on the other hand, to certain practises of
use of groundwater. This modification translates into a reduction in the water resources.

The overriding land use pattern is the expansion of crop areas due to demographic growth and,
thus, of increasing food needs. This is the case of Niger, for instance, where the crop area
passed from 3.86 million hectares in 1985 to 7.95 million hectares in 1995. The crops are,
for the major part, pluvial; irrigated farming is generally practised in the zones equipped with Niger
River hydrographic network.

This expansion of crop areas is no longer accompanied, as was the case in the past (fallow land
system), by land restoration. This practice affects deeply and, sometimes, irreversibly the mineral
and organic reconstruction of the land which becomes more vulnerable to wind and rain erosion.
In a system dominated by pluvial farming, the farmland deteriorates rapidly beyond 15 capta/
km², thus losing in land fertility.

Overgrazing, the clearing of

forest land for agricultural
purposes, destruction of
forests to meet fire energy
and service needs, as well
as for fodder to feed the
cattle, harmful practices
of collection of herbs and
plants for traditional phar-
64 Eroded land
macopoeia, and bush fires
are but instances of the hu-
man activities which con-
tribute in the disappearance of the forest cover,
thus exacerbating land degradation through the
phenomena of wind and water erosion.

Land degradation takes various forms (figure

19) :
Erosion glacis  formation of large expanses of glacis;
 formation and widening of temporary rivers
and ravines;
 formation of dunes;
 sanding up of crop land and silting of rivers;
 flooding and leaching of the land;
 reduction of infiltration.
Formation of sand dunes
The formation of glacis and the disappearance
of the grass cover reduce infiltration of runoff
Figure 19 : Examples of land degradation water and useful rain; this causes a lowering of
the groundwater, and the drying up of water surfaces. The silting of ponds, streams and the
River is at the origin of the considerable shrinkage of the area of surface water.

The underlying causes of the reduction of water resources are also connected with certain
practises, such as little control over the flow of artesian boreholes. Indeed, almost all artesian
drillings flow continuously, and this, since the date of their construction, in water originating in
the Continental intercalaire (Ci) and the lower aquifer of the Continental Terminal (CT1). A drop in
artesianism by about 2 to 3 meters has been reported in Niger (Dantiandou, Balayera, Dan Kas-
sari). This also applies to the major drillings constructed in 1969 for oil exploration in the Malian
portion. The piezometric level was at 4.75 m above ground, with an artesian flow of 2.6 liters/s;
some 82000 m3 flow yearly in the wild, going almost unnoticed.

 Social and economic causes

The change in the availability of groundwater must be seen in the sense of its decrease as induced
by various social and economic causes. These are demographic growth and the development of
such economic sectors as stock-breeding, farming and industrial activities.

a) Drinking water demand

According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the portion of the urban popu-
lation having access to drinking water in sub-Saharan Africa had decreased rather slightly, pass-
ing from 86 % in 1990 to 83 % in 2000. Currently, about 65 % of the rural population and 25 %
of the urban population do not have access to an adequate water distribution6. Similarly, about
73% of the rural population and 43 % of the urban population do not have access to decent
sanitation. In Nairobi, for instance, 60% of the population lives in shantytowns which account for
only 5% of the city territory. The same applies to the major African cities, of which 40% to 70% of
the inhabitants live in shantytowns (Figure 20).

And yet Africa has abundant water resources that are not efficiently used. Having 17 major rivers
and over 160 major lakes, Africa uses a mere 4 % or so of its total annual volume of renewable
water resources for agriculture, industry and domestic needs7; in other words, a low average con-
sumption with regard to the potential. How-
ever, by 2025, water demand will be on the
65
increase in view of population growth (UNDP,
2005) (Table 10). This increase is likely to lead
the African countries, those of the Iullemeden
Aquifer System precisely, to a situation of wa-
ter stress8 (Figure 21).

Currently, African countries depend consid-

erably on external funding. A recent study of
the water distribution and sanitation projects
sponsored by the World Bank for the financial
years 1987 to 1990 reveals a larger propor-
tion of external funding in sub-Saharan Africa Figure 20 : Shantytown in Nairobi (Photo: ©AFP / Get-
ty Images / Marco Longari)

6
Regional Hydrological Observatory of West and Central Africa (World Bank http://ohraoc.ird.bf); www.righttowater.
org.uk/code/homepage.asp; www.cohre.org/water.htm; www.academie-eau.org/mot.php3?id_mot=6; www.water-
treaty.org; www.worldwatercouncil.org
7
Gumisai Mutume, 2004. Les vicissitudes du développement durable. (Vicissitudes of Sustainable Development) - Afri-
que Renouveau, Vol.18#2 (July 2004), page 19.
8
UN Economic Community for Africa (UNECA), Future of the Global Environment 2000, UNEP, Earthscan, London,
1999.
 Figure 21 : Water shortage and stress in Africa for the time
frame 2025 related to demographic growth.
than in any other part of the world: 81 %, as against
65 % in Asia, 58 % in Latin America, 54 % in the Mid-
dle East and North Africa. In the case of rural projects,
these external funding passed from 66 %, for the finan-
cial years 1975-1979, to 84 %, for 1990-1994, while
public investments were decreasing from 33 % to 13 %
for this same period

Besides, throughout the sub-Saharan region, water

supply is subsidized by means of rates that are lower
than the cost prices and, sometimes, even lower than
the operating and maintenance costs. Cost recovery is
66 thus insufficient and adds to the difficulties of the administrations, which have at once to ensure
the maintenance of the existing systems and invest in new infrastructures.

As regards the SAI countries, the recording of abstractions for drinking water purposes is en-
trusted to the national drinking water distribution companies and agencies. These bodies operate

Population
Classi- Annual Population Total
aged less
fication Total population demogra- Urban population aged 65+ fertility
than 15
according (million) phic growth (in % of total)1 years (in % rate (par
years (in %
to the HDI rate (%) of total) woman)
of total)

1975- 2003- 1970- 2000-

1975 2003 2015 19752 2003 20152 2003 20152 2003 20152
2003 20152 19753 20053
158 Nigeria 58,9 125,9 160,9 2,7 2,0 23,4 46,6 55,5 44,7 41,3 2,4 3,2 6,9 5,8
174 Mali 6,2 12,7 18,1 2,6 2,9 16,2 32,3 40,9 48,3 46,7 2,2 2,4 7,6 6,9
177 Niger 5,3 13,1 19,3 3,2 3,3 10,6 22,2 29,7 49,0 47,9 1,6 2,0 8,1 7,9
1.
These data resting on national definitions concerning city and conurbation, inter-country comparisons need to be
made with caution
2.
These data belong in the middle of the projection range.
3.
These data relate to estimates for the indicated period.

Table 10 : Demographic trends (UNDP Report, 2005).

mainly in the main cities and medium-sized conurbations. The estimates of the abstractions made
in rural environment by village hydraulics are very approximate.

The annual average water demand for Kidal, Gao and Tombouctou in Mali is 1.3 million m3/year
(statistics of 1999 to 2001). The annual average water demand, primarily for the fifty one urban
centres totalling 1.8 million inhabitants, is 117.6 million m3/year in Niger9 (Maliki and Issa, 2004).
Niamey, the capital, is supplied by water from Niger River. In Nigeria, annual average drinking wa-
ter consumption was of 15.4 million m3/year in 1990 for the population of the States of Kebbi,
Zamfara and Sokoto10 (JICA, 1990; Ude and Hanidu, 2004; Hanidu, 2006). The forecasts for the
time frame 2020 estimate the demand for water as 32.3 million m3/ year11. The major portion
of the abstractions comes from the aquifers of Gundumi, Rima, Kalambina and Gwandu (Kogbe,
1972; 1976; Hanidu, 2006).

The UNDP Report (2005) has given, based on the Human Development Index, the figures related
to the population having access to drinking water in the three countries (table 11).

MDG MDG
Classification ac- Population having quality sanitary instal- Population having facilitated access
cording to HDI lations (%) to a quality water source (%)

1990 2002 1990 2002

158 - Nigeria 39 38 49 60
174 - Mali 36 45 34 48
177 - Niger 7 12 40 46

Table 11 : Percentage of the population having sanitary installations and easy access to drin-
king water (UNDP Report, 2005).

The inventory of water points (drillings and wells) in the Iullemeden Aquifer System has counted
over 17,000 water points. The distribution over time reveals an increase in water demand in
line with demographic
growth (Figure 22).
4000
3500
67
3000
The period 1980 2500
– 1990 corre- 2000
sponds to the launch 1500
of the Internation- 1000 al
Decade for Drinking 500

Water and Sanitation. 0

1950 à 1960 1960 à 1970 1970 à 1980 1980 à 1990 1990 à 2000
Accessibility was de- Série2 53 69 72 3714 1188
fined as the distance to
be covered on foot or
the travel time between Figure 22 : Statistics on water points (boreholes and wells) in the
the household and the SAI as per decade, based on the data available on the year of their
modern water point construction

9
MALIKI Barhouni and ISSA Soumana, 2004. Development Process of a Shared Vision for the Sustainable Develop-
ment of the Niger Basin: National Multisector Study. Niger Basin Authority Report - (in the French). 213 pp. and Appen-
dices
10
Ude M. O and Hanidu J A., 2004. Assessment of the Opportunities and Constraints to the Development of Nigeria’s
Portion of the river Niger Basin. Niger Basin Authority, 141 pp. and Appendix
11
JICA (1990) - Study for Groundwater Development in Sokoto State
 (borehole, modern well, tank well, water tap). One modern water point (drilling, well) corresponds
to 250 inhabitants in Niger and to 400 inhabitants in Mali.

b) Water needs for agriculture

In the West Africa sub-region, the hydro-agricultural potential is very little exploited (UICN et al.,
2003)12. Water abstractions for agriculture, domestic consumption, industry and hydropower,
are estimated as less than 3% of the renewable water resources available. With an area almost
equal to that of the United States and China, West Africa counts only 110 major dams (15 m
high dams or of a storage volume over 3 million m3), as against over 6.000 for the USA and over
20.000 for China. West Africa accounts for 1/3rd of the area of Africa but has less than 1/10th
of the continent’s 1300 large dams, which is revealing of the little control over water.

In the zone of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, the irrigable land potential of Mali is estimated as
2.2 million hectares (Diarra and Cissé, 2004; Sidoro, 2006) of which about 110 000 hectares for
the zone of Gao. The grown irrigable area is about 135 000 hectares, of which 10 000 hectares
in the zone of Gao. Water consumption is about 4.5 billion m3, with 98% of these needs being
covered by water from Niger River (Diarra and Cissé, 2004; Sidoro, 2006). For a total coverage of
the food needs of the population of Mali, the water needs are estimated as 10 billion m3, which
is about 30% of the potential of the country’s surface water resources in deficit year13.

As for the Niger portion of the basin, the major part of the irrigable land potential of Niger, esti-
mated as 270 000 hectares, is concentrated in the valley of Niger River, with 142 000 ha (that
is, 52% of the national potential) (Maliki and Issa, 2004). The irrigable land potential in the zone
of the Iullemeden basin is estimated as 227 000 hectares, that is 84% of the potential of
Niger. The exploitation of the irrigable potential is conducted in full control over water mainly from
Niger River and the ponds, and by drillings (43 drillings), (Maliki and Issa, 2004; Rabé, 2006).

In Nigeria, the irrigable land potential is 42 272 hectares, of which nearly 5 300 hectares are
grown. Water needs for agriculture are provided by the surface water dams of Bakolori14, Jibiya,
Goronyo and Zauro (Hanidu, 2006; Ude and Hanidu, 2004). In Nigeria, irrigated agriculture rep-

68
resents the main water-consuming activity, with abstractions estimated as 5.5 billion m3 (69%
of the total abstractions), followed by domestic uses (1.7 billion m3) and industry (800 million m3)
(FAO, Aquastat).

c) Water needs for livestock

The north-western part of the Iullemeden Aquifer System represents the pastoral livestock zone,
particularly in Mali and Niger. It is characterized by an uneven distribution of modern water points
(pastoral drillings and wells) and a high number of those which are not in operation. This results
in a concentration of the population and livestock on these rare water points, thus exerting high
pressure on the water resource.

According to the updated Rural Development Master Plan (SDDR), Mali counts a herd of 589
000 head of cattle, 14 444 000 head of sheep and goat, and 310 000 head of camel (Diarra
and Cissé, 2004). The Saharan portion of Niger River corresponds to the nomadic stock-
breeding zone par excellence. The fodder production, of less than 0.1 ton of dry matter/ha/

12
UICN-BRAO, GWP-WAMP, CILSS, 2003. Water, Climate Change and Desertification in West Africa: Regional Stra-
tegy of Preparedness and Adaptation
DIARRA Adama Tiémoko et CISSE Youssouf, 2004. Etude multisectorielle nationale : Evaluation des opportunités et
13.

contraintes au développement dans la portion malienne du bassin du fleuve Niger. Rapport Autorité du bassin du Niger.
142 pages.
14
Akané Hartenbach and Jürgen Schuol. October 2005. Bakolori Dam and Bakolori Irrigation Project – Sokoto, Nige-
ria
year, and the very low load capacity (44 hectares/Tropical Cattle Unit) are compensated by
the very vast pasture expanses, whose exploitation remains dependent on the presence of
water points. Assuming an average daily need for a Tropical Cattle Unit of 30 litres, the annual
need would be of 56 million m3/year in the portion of the Iullemeden basin which represents
half of the national cattle population.

According to statistics for the year 2000 of the Ministry for Animal Resources, Niger counts
2’276’545 head of cattle, 2’719’482 head of sheep, 5’002’396 head of goat, 321’824 head
of camel, 467’890 head of donkey, and 149’935 head of horse (Maliki and Issa, 2004; Rabé,
2006). They are distributed over approximately 230’000 km2 from East to West of Niger in the
zone of extension of the large aquifers with low renewal rate. The water needs of the pastoral zone
represent about 16 million m3/year. The annual need for the livestock is of 119.77 million m3/
year.

As for Nigeria, it counts 4 137 159 head of cattle, 4 357 962 head of sheep, 6’572’115 head
of goat, 2942000 head of pig, 6 190 000 poultry, 559 500 head of donkey, and 22748 head
of horse, distributed over the States of Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, (Ude and Hanidu, 2004; Hanidu,
2006). The annual average water demand is 271.36 million m3/year.

To improve the living conditions of the populations and of this sizeable livestock, particularly in
these northern zones dedicated to pastoral activities, which zones are quite vulnerable to recur-
rent droughts, more and more pastoral drillings, especially wells, are constructed. In Mali, for
example, the zone counts, in 2006 , some 170 boreholes and 251 modern wells for a total area
of 31000 km2, for a population of 33445 inhabitants distributed among 170 villages and sites.
The construction of these new structures in these arid areas contributes in reducing the water
potential of the aquifers of the Continental Terminal (CT).

d) Water needs for industry

The water needs for industrial activities are at the same time met by water from Niger River and
water from the aquifers of the Continental intercalaire (CI) and the Continental Terminal (CT).

Most of the Malian industries are supplied by the “Energie du Mali” water network, with, at times,
one or two drillings in supplement. The annual water consumption of the industries ranges from
69
a few thousand m³ (most of the industrial plants) to a few hundred thousand m³ (breweries and
textile factories). The water demand in Niger for the food processing and mining industries, as well
as for trade, is estimated as 9920400 m3/year (Maliki and Issa, 2004; Rabé, 2006). The major
part of the water resources in Niger comes from groundwater; most of the industrial and mining
plants are equipped with their own drillings networks.

In Nigeria, abstractions for industry, estimated in 2000, amount to 800 million m3, i.e. 10% with
respect to an annual total of 8 billion m3.

X.2.2. Degradation of groundwater quality

 Groundwater uses and practices
These relate, in particular, to access to sanitary installations, urban pollution and the close vicin-
ity of urban centres15, as well as land use (Alhou, 2006; Calamari, 1985; Kotschoubey and Koné,
2005; Yongxin Xu and Brent Usher, 2006).

Access to installations corresponds in part to the 7th Goal of the MDGs, i.e. reducing by a half the
proportion of the world population deprived of access to drinking water and sanitation. In 2003,

15
Kotschoubey and Abdoulaye Koné, 2005. Evaluation for the Monitoring of Water Quality in the Niger Basin. Niger
Basin Authority (ABN) – (in French).
 some 48% of the world population
lived in cities (Figure 23); by 2030,
this would rise to 60% (World Re-
port 2003)16.

Over 210 million persons in sub-

Saharan Africa would be deprived
of access to sanitary installations
(UNDP Report, 2005). All the cities
and medium-sized conurbations,
located in the Iullemeden Aquifer
System zone, are equipped with
a storm water collection network
that also receives solid and liquid
domestic wastes.

Most of the major cities of Mali

(Bamako, Koulikoro, Ségou, Mopti,
Gao, Tombouctou) are located
Figure 23 : Proportion, in urban environment, of households
equipped with running water and a connection to a sewera- along Niger River and all dispose
ge network (Source: WHO and UNICEF, 2000). of their domestic effluent, without
prior treatment, in the river. Eighty
per cent (80%) of the industries are sited there (Calamari, 1985). According to the World Water
Assessment Programme (WWAP), liquid domestic wastes are estimated as ranging between
25.000 and 41.600 m3/day, which end up in the river without prior treatment.

According to the results of the Demographic

and Health Surveys in Mali (EDSM – III), the
combined sewer concerns less than 1.5% of
the population; 32% only use septic tanks and

70
66.5% use latrines. Domestic wastes, evalu-
ated based on the water consumption of the
population, are estimated as between 25000
and 41600 m3/day. The production of do-
mestic wastes is closely related to the socio-
economic activities of the population (Figure
24). The city of Bamako currently produces on
average nearly 1900 m3 domestic wastes per
day that is over 70% of the total production of
Figure 24 : Urban wastewater (Badialan 1, Ba-
domestic wastes. If the current trend of waste mako).
production is maintained, the city of Bamako
would end up with a daily production of 2730 m3 by 2015.

In Niamey, the network is embryonic in view of its length (105 km) and its operation rate. More
than 60 % of the network is clogged by solid or viscous waste of various origins, namely: 65 to
75% of organic matter, 8 to 10% of paper and rags, 3% of glass and earthenware, 2 to 3% of
plastic and leather, 2 to 3% of metals (Alhou, 2006).

The major urban and sub-urban centres are not equipped with a system of storage of domestic
waste (solid and liquid). Most of the urban wastewater and storm water is collected by gutters
and disposed of in the river without preliminary treatment (Figure 25). In Niamey, the quantity of

16.
Programme mondial pour l’évaluation des ressource en eau (World Water Assessment Program, WWAP), 2003.
solid wastes produced every year is estimated
as 273 750 ton, based on 0.75 kg per inhabit-
ant per day (Alhou, 2006). Only 21 % of these
wastes is removed and used partly to embank
the small depressions in the city and the old
quarries located in the immediate outskirts.

In the Nigerian part, the city of Lagos has an

annual theoretical load of 95000 tons of Bio-
logical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and of 136000
tons per year of suspended solids (Calamari,
1985). In most Nigerian cities and conurba-
tions, there is hardly any combined sewerage
network (Figure 26). In the major cities, how- Figure 25 : Urban wastes in Niamey.
ever, the main facilities and institutions have
modern wastewater treatment installations. The main processes currently used to discharge
domestic wastes are: septic tanks, latrines and hygienic buckets.

Figure 26 : Solid and liquid wastes in Onitsha (Nigeria).

Other practices also affect groundwater quality upstream of major conurbations. In the Malian 71
portion of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, a significant quantity of chemical products intended
for combating locusts has been stored straight on the ground for over a decade. The stor-
age infrastructures and equipment for these products have deteriorated, thus inducing soil and
groundwater pollution.

 Social and economic causes

The main cause of deterioration of the quality of groundwater lies in the development of the socio-
economic sectors, such as irrigated agriculture and industrial activities.

Hydro-agricultural developments and off-season crops, in particular vegetable crop growing, are
conducted by an increasing use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides. In 2005, fertiliser consump-
tion in West Africa amounted to about 1 500 000 tons of finished products. Nigerian consump-
tion totalled 1 590 million tons in 1993, as against less than 600’ 000 tons in 2005 (FMARD
Nigeria, 2006); this decrease is mainly due to a stoppage of the fertiliser producing facilities.

Following the drought of 1970, and up to 1977, Lindane had been employed in Mali in relatively
high quantities (130 tons), and then was gradually replaced by Carbamate Propoxur (Calamari,
1985). In 1982, Fenitrothion, an organophosphorite insecticide of moderate residual effect, was
used for millet, sorghum and corn. A large-scale campaign to combat river blindness is being con-
ducted by the World Health Organization in West Africa over about 1 300 000 square kilometres
 within the framework of combating the populations of larvae of dipterous Simulium damnosum.
The pesticides most commonly used are Temephos (Abate) and, in lesser quantities, Chlorphoxim
(Davide Calamari, 1985).

X.2.3. Climate variability and change

The underlying causes of climate variability and change with an impact on groundwater resources,
especially of non confined aquifers, are more related to the socio-economic causes proper to the
region.

West Africa, in particular Mali, Niger and Nigeria, produce very little, if not hardly any, GHG, com-
parative to industrialised countries (UNDP, 2005).

Land use changes, of which deforestation is the main factor, seem to have caused a negative
radiative ram of - 0,2 ± 0,2 Watt/m2 (IPCC, 2001). The contribution of the countries of the Iul-
lemeden Aquifer System zone lies in the consumption of traditional fuels, such as the production
of firewood (table 12).

Consumption of Consumption of MDG

Classification electricity per GDP units produced MDG
traditional fuels
according to inhabitant
(in % of total energy per koe Carbon dioxide emissions
HDI
consumed) (kilowatts/hours) (PPA 2000)

Portion of
Per inhabitant world total
(in tons) (%)

2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 1980 2002

1 Norway 0 22400 26640 4,6 6,1 10,6 12,2 0,2
10 USA 3,6 10336 13456 2,8 4,4 20,0 20,1 24,4
20 Germany 0 0 6989 3,9 6,2 0 9,8 3,4

72 158 Nigeria
174 Mali 85,0
46,4
15
108
33
148
..
1,4
..
1,3
0,1
1,0
(.)
0,4
(.)
177 Niger 85,3 39 40 .. .. 0,1 0,1 (.)

Table 12 : Fuel consumption and GHG emissions

According to studies conducted by FAO, out of the 3600 million hectares, 70% of the world’s arid
areas affected, 10 million hectares of arable land are degraded every year, 130 million hectares
seriously affected, and 50% are in Africa.

Deforestation for the production of firewood contributes in a very significant way in desertification.
In developing countries, over 2 billion people do not have access to reliable forms of energy. Water
is a vital resource as regards energy production, the latter being in its turn essential for economic
development. While Europe uses 75% of its hydraulic energy potential, Africa—where 60% of the
population does not have access to electricity—exploits only 7% of its potential17. This deficit is
compensated by wood energy.

In the zone of the Iullemeden Aquifer System, the forestry domain18 of Mali is estimated as 100

17
Second World Report of the United Nations on the Development of Water Resources
18.
Results of the Inventory Project of the Woody Resources of Mali (PIRL 1985-1991).
million ha (Diarra and Cissé, 2004), exclusive of the pastoral and desert zones. However, the main
part of the ligneous (woody) resources extends on a mere 32.4 million ha, that is less than 26% of
the area of the national territory. Some 118 classified forests, totalling about 1 million hectares,
of which 20 listed forests cover an area of 259200 ha, are subjected to durable installation, of
which 8 000 ha in the Iullemeden zone19.

As for woody productions, the live volume is over 520 million m3, that is 416 million tons of live
wood, with productions of less than 10 m3/ha for shrubby savannas; of 20 to 40 m3/ha for
striped bush; of 50 to 80 m3 for wooded savannas; and of over 100 m3/ha in Guinean zone and
forest galleries.

In Mali, over 100’000 ha of forests disappear every year. Wood cutting for firewood and charcoal
are estimated overall as 5 million tons per year, which corresponds to the exploitation of 400’000
ha and is likely to reach or exceed 7 million tons by the year 2010, that is 560’000 ha. The regen-
eration (productivity) potential is estimated as 7 million tons per year20. The production of firewood
and charcoal in the portion of the Iullemeden Aquifer System during the period 1984-1999 is
estimated as 270879 steres of wood that is 37095 quintals of coal.

In Niger, according to an estimate made during the period 1982 and 1989, forest resources
cover an area of 16 million hectares (that is 2% of the area of the national territory), consisting
of 11’600’000 hectares of marginal forest land (covering less than 5%), 4’400’000 hectares of
reclaimable forest formations, of which 600000 hectares of listed forests21. In 1995, the forest
areas (natural forests and plantations) had shrunk to as little as 2,5 million hectaress22. In the
Iullemeden basin, there have been inventoried 37 listed forests covering an area of 381.284,4
ha (that is, 79% of the total area of the country’s listed forests) and 38 protected forests total-
ling about 2.3 million hectares. Niger forests provide 87% of the energy needs of the populations
estimated as in the range of 1.5 to 2 million tons per year in spite of a low productivity of the Niger
forests (ranging between 0,1 and 1,5 stere/ha/year)23 due, in particular, to a high human and
animal pressure and to recurrent droughts. Thus, on average, an annual 338 180 hectares are
lost to the forest areas24.

The Federal Republic of Nigeria claims significant forest reserves. In certain northern States, the
estimates amount to 840280 hectares in Bauchi, 613484 hectares in Kaduna and 602631 73
hectares in Sokoto State. A forest restoration programme has allowed the restoration of 432052
hectares in the State of Borno (Chad Lake zone), 18900 hectares in the State of Katsina, 17150
hectares in the State of Kebbi. The production of seedlings in 1992 in the States under threat
of desertification due to deforestation, reported the following figures: Plateau: 2’368’500; Kano:
1’998’000; Borno: 1’700’000; Sokoto: 1’555’875.

It is worth recalling that Nigeria has both renewable and non renewable energy resources. The non
renewable resources include in particular: crude oil, natural gas, coal and lignite, as well as nuclear
fuel. The renewable resources consist in hydropower, solar energy, wind energy, firewood and bio-
mass. Firewood accounts for over 85% of domestic energy although Nigeria is a oil exporting
country. Annual production is about 43.3 million tons/year for wood, 144 million tons/ year for
animal waste and crop residue, 734.2 MW for small-sized hydropower energy, 5.25 kw/m2/day,

19.
National Department of Nature Conservation (DNCN), 1999
20
According to the National Department of Forestry, Faunal and Fishery Resources (DNRFFH)
21.
CNEDD, 1998 & 2004
22.
National document CSE/LCD, 2004
23.
CNEDD, 1998
24.
CNEDD, 1998
 on average, for solar energy, and 2.0-4.0 (19.8 W/m2, on average, for wind energy25.

As regards land degradation, 0.7% of the forest potential is lost in Mali, as against 3.7% in
Niger and 2.7% in Nigeria26.

X.3. Root causes

The root causes are often related to the fundamental aspects of the macroeconomics, demog-
raphy, consumption patterns, environmental values, access to information and democratic proc-
esses27 (GEF, 2004).
The underlying causes may be distributed into the following categories (GEF, 2004): 1) govern-
ance; 2) demographic pressure and change; 3) poverty, wealth and inequality; 4) development
models and national macroeconomic policies; 5) social changes and development assumptions;
and 6) education and formulation of values.

These categories of causes are in line with the indicators or indices developed and applied by cer-
tain international institutions, in particular the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),
to characterize each country according to its degree of development28.

As a matter of fact, the underlying causes of the paradox of the African continent and, in particular,
West Africa—of which Mali, Niger and Nigeria—, a paradox characterized by a water “shortage”
within an abundance of water resources, cannot be explained based exclusively on modification of
the groundwater resources on the quantitative and qualitative levels, nor based on the adverse
impacts of climate variability and change. Other significant factors, related to these categories,
indicators or indices, do contribute to a significant extent, towards a better appreciation of the
Transboundary risks. For example, the incapacity to apply laws on the control of pollution is not
only one cause of pollution (GEF, 2004).

It is for these reasons that, because of the specificity of governance, the root causes of the three
major Transboundary risks can be examined according to two approaches:
74  the human development indicators which provide a comprehensive evaluation allowing an ap-
preciation of the progress achieved by each country in various fields of human development;
these indicators cover the main part of the categories of root causes involved;
 the governance analysis of each Transboundary risks.

X.3.1. Analysis of the development indicators

West Africa is characterised by its extreme poverty. Out of the 30 countries where the lowest
human development index is reported, 14 are in West Africa, that is all the countries of the
region, except for Liberia (non listed), Ghana and Cape Verde. On the list of the 49 countries con-
sidered as LDCs (Least Developed Countries) in the world, 14 belong in West Africa, which is all
countries except for Ghana, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire. Average GDP for West Africa (340 USD) is
less than a half of that for Africa as a whole (700 USD). This means, therefore, that West Africa
is the poorest region of the poorest continent in the world (IUCN & al., 2003).

Nigeria’s Non-Conventional Energy Resources (Source : Federal Republic of Nigeria: National Assessment Report-
25.

World Summit on Sustainable Development-2002)

26.
World Bank Atlas (2001)
27.
GEF, 2004. Training course on the TDA/SAP approach in the GEF. International Waters Programme. Six volumes.
UNDP, 2005. World Report on Human Development 2005. ED. Economica, 49 rue Héricart, 75015 Paris (France).
28.

385 pages
The indicators considered cover the developed countries (Norway, USA, and Germany), the fairly
advanced countries (Brazil, India), the less developed countries (Mali, Niger, Nigeria). This ap-
proach is justified by the need to compare the various levels of development between the coun-
tries, but—above all—to seek to better appreciate and grasp the underlying causes of the paradox
of the African continent (tables 13 to 26).

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index.It measures three dimensions of hu-
man well-being: income, education and health. Its objective is not to provide an exhaustive repre-
sentation of human development, but to measure the level of development beyond mere income.
The HDI is thus a sort of barometer of the evolution of human well-being and a tool of comparison
between various regions.

During the last decade, the HDI has increased in all developing countries, although at variable
pace, except—of course—for sub-Saharan Africa. However, in spite of overall progress, many coun-
tries have taken unprecedented backward steps. Thus, in 2003, eighteen (18) countries, with a
total population of 460 million inhabitants, were ranked lower on the HDI in 2003 than in 1990
(Table 1.1). (Only six countries had experienced similar regression in the 1980s.) Two zones are
particularly affected. Twelve of the countries in regression are located in sub-Saharan Africa. Over
a third of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, that is 240 million people, live in countries whose
HDI has fallen. The six other countries in regression belong to the former USSR.

The development regression is reflected in the relative ranking of the countries. In sub-Saharan
Africa, economic stagnation, the slowness of the progress achieved in matter of education and
the proliferation of HIV/AIDS have proved to be a fatal combination involving an abrupt relegation
on the HDI classification. South Africa reports one of the sharpest falls by losing 35 points, while
Zimbabwe loses 23 points and Botswana 21.

Human development must progress on several fronts: a decline in human well-being, related to life
expectancy, for instance, cannot be compensated by progress in other areas, such as income or
education. Moreover, progress made in a given area is more difficult to maintain in the absence
of a comprehensive improvement. Thus, a poor level of health may have a negative impact on
economic growth and education, and a slow growth reduces the resources available for social
investments.
75
The World Report on Human Development highlights the extent of the challenge which the world
must take up at the outset of the decade which separates us from 2015. It focuses on what the
governments of the rich countries can do to preserve their share of the world partnership endeav-
our. This does not mean that the governments of developing countries have no responsibility. On
the contrary, they even have a primary responsibility. No level of international co-operation will
ever be able to compensate for the inaction of governments that do not grant priority to human
development, respect of human rights, combating inequalities or elimination of corruption. But,
without renewed commitment, without a co-operation sustained by practical action, the Millen-
nium Development Goals (MDGs) will be missed, and history will record the Millennium Declaration
as yet another hollow promise.

As regards the deadline of 2015, there is a growing risk that the next ten years, just like the ten
last ones, should be recorded in history not as a decade of accelerated human development, but
as a period of missed chances, timid efforts and failure of international co-operation. This year is a
turning point. The international community may pursue human development along the same way
or change course and implement the policies necessary to give concrete expression to the com-
mitments made in the Millennium Declaration.

The consequences of the current orientation should not be underestimated. Using the trend data
on national level, we have developed an estimate of variations in terms of human cost between
 the MDGs and the results envisaged in 2015 if the current trends continue. Among the gaps, we
may mention the following:
 the MDG on reducing infant mortality will not be reached, the gap being equivalent to more than
4.4 million avoidable deaths in 2015. Over the next ten years, the aggregate gap between the
objective and the current trend would mean that more than 41 million children will die before
their fifth anniversary of the easiest evil that may be cured: poverty; a conclusion that is difficult
to reconcile with the Millennium Declaration in which the States pledge to protect the world
children;
 the gap between the MDGs to reduce poverty by a half and the forecasts may be translated as
follows: an additional 380 million people in developing countries will live on less than one dollar
per day by 2015;
 the MDGs on primary education for all will not be reached if the current trend continues: 47
million children in developing countries will not be schooled in 2015.

However, statistics as the preceding ones must be interpreted with caution. The forecasts resting
on the past trends offer an outline of the possible results, but do not define in any case an inescap-
able reality.

In the case of the MDGs, there is no doubt that good news is possible. It is still possible to adjust
course, but time is short. As the United Nations Secretary General has said, «the MDGs can be
reached by 2015, provided that we forsake usual practices and accelerate and intensify at once
and in a spectacular way the implementation of the measures”.

To know whether the MDGs are accessible belongs in political priority, but the investments neces-
sary are modest compared with the wealth of the rich countries. The 7 billion dollars necessary
each year during the next decade to ensure for 2.6 billion individuals access to drinking water
represent less than what Europeans spend on perfume and less than what Americans spend
on ice cream, and this, for an investment which would save some 4000 lives per year.

 Progress and failure in matter of human development

76 The most elementary components of human development are a long and healthy life, education
and resources allowing a decent standard of living. Human potential also includes social and politi-
cal participation in societal life.

Within a little more than ten years, average life expectancy in developing countries has in-
creased by two years. In this field, the human development indicators converge: the poor coun-
tries catch up with the rich countries. The increase in life expectancy is due partly to a fall in infant
mortality rate. There are, currently, 2 million infant deaths less than in 1990, and the proportion
of children reaching five years of age has increased by 15%.

Improvements in matter of access to drinking water and sanitation have contributed in the above
achievement by reducing the risks of infectious diseases. During the last decade, 1.2 billion peo-
ple obtained access to drinking water. Thanks to the Global Alliance for Vaccine and Inoculation
(GAVI), the rapid increase in the number of vaccinations on a worldwide scale since 2001 has
also generated a fall in mortality and saved half a million lives according to estimates.

The progress made in the educational field is quite as remarkable. Nevertheless, 800 million
people in the world do not have the basics of reading and writing. Of this total, the largest number
corresponds to women for as many as two thirds. And yet, literacy levels in developing countries
have passed from 70 % to 76 % during the past ten years, and the gender gap has narrowed.

Current illiteracy reflects the past gaps in matter of access to education, but the latter gaps are
gradually being bridged. By comparison with 1990, thirty (30) million children less is deprived of
schooling in primary education and the average schooling duration has extended by six months.
Gender differences with regard to schooling, an indicator that is commonly recognized as being
little representative of equality between the sexes, have decreased, although more than a half of
the non schooled children are girls.

Extreme monetary poverty is on the decrease. Well-founded doubts have been expressed concern-
ing the use of the “one-dollar per day” poverty line to represent the trends in the various coun-
tries. Consequently, the greatest caution is required as regards the interpretation of this indicator.

Whatever the difficulties related to the measurement of this phenomenon, poverty is an evolu-
tionary process which can only partially be represented by fixed indicators. The situation evolves,
however, in the right direction. The rate of extreme poverty has passed from 28% in 1990 to
21% today, this fall being equivalent in absolute figures to approximately 130 million people.
Economic growth is obviously one of the requirements for a rapid fall in monetary poverty and a
sustained human development. In this field, too, the main figures are encouraging.

In the 1990s, the average per capita income of developing countries reported a 1.5% increase
that is almost three times more than in the 1980s. Since 2000, the average per capita income
of developing countries has increased by 3.4% that is twice the growth of the average income
in high income countries.

After two decades of decline of the average income, sub-Saharan Africa has posted a 1.2% in-
crease per year since 2000. It is perhaps too early to declare this projection as being a decisive
turning point, but there are indications which show that the growth could strike root in a growing
number of the countries of the region.

Progress towards democracy is also ambivalent. Yet, democracy is a key aspect of human devel-
opment. It has an intrinsic value and can, thus, be regarded as a fully fledged indicator of human
development and is also a means of extending the human development goals.

The measurement of democratic progress is, by its very nature, rather complex. Among the re-
quirements, one may mention multi-party elections, currently the mode of governance most used
in the world.
77
More than two thirds of Africans as of now live in countries provided with a democratic multi-party
electoral system and the African governments themselves have taken the lead in the movement
opposing the antidemocratic coup in Togo. Nevertheless, multi-party elections are not enough to
qualify a State as being democratic. Multi-party elections are far from being widespread in the
Middle East.

Many countries organizing multi-party elections, in particular in some countries in the former Sovi-
et Union, are democratic only in name, countries whose leaders are considered by the population
as being corrupt and tyrannical, abusing their authority and refusing to address their country’s
social problems.

Multi-party elections may be a smokescreen concealing an authoritarian executive power, curtail-

ment of the freedom of the press and violations of human rights, which have nothing democratic
about them. In certain countries, popular demonstrations have been a powerful antidote against
such practices.

 Limitations of human development

No indicator of destitution is more telling, or more disconcerting, than that of infant mortality. Over
10 million children of less than five years die every year. The weight of sub-Saharan Africa in the
statistics on infant mortality is on the increase. The region represents 20 % of infant births and
 44 % of infant deaths. Almost all infant deaths could be avoided. Every two minutes, four people,
of whom three are children, die of malaria. Most of these deaths could be avoided by simple
and inexpensive interventions. Diseases against which there is a vaccine (measles, diphtheria and
tetanus) claim the death of 2 to 3 million children.

For each child who dies, millions of others will fall sick or miss out on school, thus being trapped
in the vicious circle which makes of children in bad health adults plunged in poverty. Like the 500
000 women per year who die of causes related to a pregnancy, over 98 % of the children which
die every year live in poor countries. In other words, they die because they have been born there.

Monetary poverty is closely related to the problem of famine. In a world of abundance, millions of
people suffer from famine every day. More than 850 million people, of whom a third of preschool
children, continue to be trapped in the vicious circle of malnutrition and its effects. Indeed, malnu-
trition weakens the immune system, increasing proneness to disease which, in its turn, further
aggravates malnutrition. About a half of the deaths in pre-school age are directly ascribable to
interactions between malnutrition and infectious diseases. Children presenting a relative excess
insufficiency have four times more risks to die of infectious disease than the well-fed children.

Similarly, vulnerability to infectious diseases is exacerbated by an inadequate access to drink-

ing water and sanitation. More than a billion people do not have access to wholesome water and
2.6 billion do not have enhanced sanitary access. Water- or human excrement-carried diseases
are the second cause of death among the world children, after infections of respiratory tracts. The
total number of victims per day is estimated as 3.900 children. There still remain considerable
disparities in access to education. In a world economy increasingly focused on knowledge, about
115 million children are denied access to basic primary education. Most non schooled children
live in sub-Saharan Africa and in South Asia. On average, a child born in Mozambique today re-
ceives four years of education, whereas a child born in France gets as many as 15 years of educa-
tion at a markedly higher level of schooling.

Moreover, while the gap in matter of schooling in primary education is being bridged, the gap be-
tween rich and poor countries, measured in terms of average duration of schooling, is widening.
78 Irrespective of the differences in quality of schooling, less than a quarter of Zambian children leave
primary school knowing to read and write.

Alongside with this, access to higher education remains a privilege from which mainly high income
countries can benefit. Today’s inequalities in matter of education are tomorrow’s global social and
economic inequalities.

Gender inequalities result in an access to education that remains limited for girls. In spite of a nar-
rowed gender gap, girls receive on average one year of schooling less than boys in Africa and in
Arab countries and two years less in South Asia. In 14 African countries, girls represent less than
45% of the student-body of primary schools. In all developing countries, 75% of girls complete
their primary schooling, but this percentage is as high as 85% for boys. The gender gap is even
more pronounced in secondary and higher education.

These deep-seated disparities constitute not only a violation of the universal right to education, but
also a threat to prospects of human development. Indeed, the education of girls is a key catalyst
of social progress, such as measured by the most various indicators.

 Monetary poverty: Slackened progress in a world of inequalities

On the whole, the last two decades have reported the fastest reductions of poverty in human
history. However, any evaluation of the evolution of monetary poverty must take into account the
significant inter-regional disparities.
The reduction of world poverty is mainly due to the extraordinary success of the South Asian zone,
in particular that of China.

Conversely, sub-Saharan Africa reported an increase in population living on less than one dollar
per day: nearly 100 million people more in 2001 than in 1990.

In South Asia, the incidence of poverty has decreased, but not the number of the poor. Latin
America and the Middle East have not made any progress, whereas Central and Eastern Europe,
and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), have reported a sharp increase in poverty.

The number of people living on less than two dollars per day in Central and Eastern Europe, as well
as the CIS, has passed from 23 million, or 5% of the population, in 1990 to 93 million, or 20% of
the population, in 2001.

Of most concern for the future is the overall slackening of the progress made. The major suc-
cesses in matter of poverty in the past two decades took place in the 1980s through to the early
1990s. As from the mid-1990s, poverty—as measured based on the threshold of a dollar per
day—has decreased five times more slowly than between 1980 and 1996. And yet, the average
growth of developing countries had risen in the 1990s, and had increased more than twofold
compared to the per capita growth rate of the previous decade.

Average incomes in sub-Saharan Africa are today lower than they were back in 1990. In the past
few years, there have been noted signs of redress in several countries, in particular Burkina Faso,
Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania. This redress must, however, be placed in context. At
the annual per capita growth rate of 1.2 % reported since 2000, it would take until 2012 for sub-
Saharan Africa to restore the average incomes to their level of 1980.

 Management of natural resources

Besides the fact of exacerbating inequalities, the abundance of natural resources may widen the
capacity gaps which make certain States more liable to conflict. The States more liable to con-
flict are often hopelessly poor, though extremely rich in resources.

The proneness to a violent conflict seems to be a characteristic of what has been called the «re-
sources curse”. Once again, the connection between resources and violent conflict are neither
79
automatic nor inevitable.

Botswana has transformed its diamond-based wealth into high growth and rapid human devel-
opment, while avoiding conflict based on income-sharing. However, this example represents an
exception to the rule for the majority of developing countries. Poor governance, combined with
resources that offer a prospect of extraordinary gain for those in control of production and
exportation, is a major cause of violent conflict.

In the conflict zone, the pathology of the «resources curse” acts via various channels, hamper-
ing the development of the political institutions and the market economies capable of converting
natural wealth into human development. Part of this pathology lies in the misappropriation of na-
tional wealth. The financial flows which could have been used to sustain human development have
frequently been diverted to financing civil wars, and the governments, rebels and warlords have
sought to take control over oil, metals, ores and wood.

Angola is a glaring example. The wealth of the second largest oil reserve and the fourth largest
diamonds reserve in Africa has been used to sustain a civil war that had killed or mutilated 1 million
people between 1975 and 2002 and internally displaced an additional 4 million persons. Today,
Angola ranks 160th out of the 177 countries of the HDI, with a life expectancy of about 40 years.

The potential incomes from natural resources may weaken the State on several levels. Two per-
 verse effects come to exacerbate bad governance. In the first place, the availability of significant
flows of incomes may weaken the will of the governments to develop systems of stable in-
comes via national taxation structures. A State which becomes less dependent on the revenues
from taxes becomes less responsible vis-à-vis its population.

Secondly, in the presence of natural resources, the corruption of the State and of the individuals
and groups who control them offers huge profits. Deficient governance structures offer ample
room for «extra budget” activity, and these considerable income flows give the individuals that hold
power a motive to ensure that these opportunities remain unchanged.

X.3.2. Governance Analysis

The analysis of Governance represents the background for developing the process of Transbound-
ary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) for the Strategic Action Programme (GEF, 2004) The analysis of
governance should describe the dynamic relations within the social institutions which take into
account aspects such as the legislative and legal frameworks, decision-making processes and
budget allocations. (GEF, 2004)

The absence of good governance is not in itself the cause of pressure on the environment. It is
rather a lack of willingness to address pre-existent causes. For instance, the incapacity to apply
laws to the control of pollution is not only one cause of pollution (GEF, 2004). Without a minimum
understanding of institutional relations, responsibilities on all levels, and the existing legal and
policy frameworks (namely: what has been done, successes and failures), a number of key issues
may be overlooked and inappropriate recommendations may be formulated.

“Governance” has received several definitions, of which the following.

According to the Global Water Partnership, the water crisis is often a crisis of governance29.
The concept of “governance” encompasses the laws, regulations and institutions, but it relates
to governmental policies and actions, local activities and the networks of influence, including the
market forces on international level, the private sector and civil society (Global Water Partnership,
2003).
80 According to UNDP (2001), governance is the exercise of economic, political and administra-
tive authority to manage a country’s affairs on all levels. It comprises mechanisms, processes
and institutions, by which the citizens and groups express their interests, exercise their legal
rights, do their duties and settle their disputes.

Governance is a method of management, not a system of government30 (Camdessus & al.,

2004). Governance is a triangle that brings together the authorities, private interests (industrial,
agricultural, commercial), associative civil society of consumers and users.

Three main exchanges gradually build up between the governance actors:

 • The public authorities send in legislative and legal messages to society, which is supposed
to comply with them. In the field of water, these are the European Commission directives, the
national laws and decrees, the municipal ordinances that set the rules of use, authorisations,
prohibitions and sanctions. Governance balances this regulatory apparatus with the user’s
“good practices “. It is because the law is good that the users comply with it; it is because the
current users have been considered by the legislator that the law is in line with custom and
that it is respected. The authority of the state is accepted because it is negotiated.

29.
Global Water Partnership (GWP) Framework for Action, 2000 World Forum.
30.
Michel Camdessus, Bertrand Badré, Ivan Chéret and Pierre-Frederic Ténière-Buchot, 2004. Water. Robert Laffont
Editions.
 The second balance is established between the private, industrial and commercial interests,
and the authorities. The latter accept the laws of the market: transparency of information,
competition, prices and quantities in balance between offer and demand. The rules of lib-
eral economy are moderated by a regulation (and not a regularization) which the public au-
thorities apply to private companies;
 The third balance, between civil society and private interests (between the enterprises and
their customers), relates to the quality of the services provided (this quality includes their
price) and the nature of the demand expressed by society. The quantitative, but especially
qualitative, aspects of the goods and services offered constitute the heart of the problem. For
water, which is not a traditional economic goods, the quality of the service is not limited to ob-
servation of the technical standards and to continuity of the flow available, but extends to such
values as the protection of nature, such complex psychological and social representations as
landscapes and quality of life), and such ethical principles as transparency of management,
solidarity with the poorer categories, humanitarian action). This dependence of the economic
on the moral is the stake of this balance.

Each angle of the governance triangle seeks to control the proper functioning of the opposite bal-
ance (Camdessus & al., 2004) :
 Civil society ensures that it is sufficiently represented in the compromises passed between the
trade interests and the public authorities. This control is exerted by political sanctions (elec-
tions) which may befall the elected representatives, or still by economic effects (boycott, press
campaign) which can harm companies;
 The public authorities’ angle supervises the offer and demand balance which is supposed to
be established between the companies and the customers, the administrative executive au-
thority and its users. If demand is too low (as is typically the case of under-developed countries
concerning the water service, one of the last financial political priorities), then the authorities
may stimulate demand based on dedicated incentives: communication, information, training,
economic and financial tools, social measures;
 The regulator role of private interests with respect to the balance between regulations and
good practices («codified” in Agenda 21 at the World Environment Summit in Rio de Janeiro
in 1992) should not be forgotten. The legislator always tends to ask too much of the citizen.
81
The latter readily adopts avoidance, notwithstanding Agenda 21 and the peace of mind that is
supposed to be provided by the politically and socially correct.

The UN second world report on the Development of Water resources mentions a crisis of
governance31. It underscores the importance of the methods of governance in the management
of the world water resources and in combating poverty. According to this report, the current situ-
ation is mainly the result of “management bad practices, corruption, absence of adequate in-
stitutions, bureaucratic lethargy and insufficient investment in the fields of human resources
and physical infrastructures”.

Although there are no precise figures, it is estimated that corruption costs the water sector every
year several million dollars and that it is strongly prejudicial to water supply, in particular with regard
to the poorest categories. Accordingly, the report quotes the findings of a survey conducted in India
according to which 41 % of the respondents had paid more than one bribe during the preceding six
months in order to temper with their water consumption reading; 30 % of them had paid to speed up
the execution of repair work and 12 % of them had paid to speed up the execution of connection and
sanitation system installation work.

This report, which is published every three years, was presented in Mexico City, in preparation for the 4th Global
31.

Water Forum (Mexico City, 16 to 22 March). This edition is entitled «Water, a Shared Responsibility».
 It is also noted that the credits allocated to water do not increase. According to the report, the total
Official Development Aid (ODA) dedicated to the water sector during the past few years amounts to
3 billion dollars per year, on average, to which there must be added 1.5 billion dollars granted to the
sector under the form of non concessional loans, mainly by the World Bank. However, only a small
percentage (12 %) of these funds actually reaches those who need it most. Lastly, only 10 % approxi-
mately of the credits are allocated to the development of policies, planning and design of programmes
in matter of water management.

Moreover, investments by the private sector in the field of water supply are on the decrease. During
the 1990s, it is estimated that the private sector had invested 25 billion dollars in water supply and
sanitation services in developing countries, mainly in Latin America and Asia. However, many large
multinationals present in the water sector have started to reduce their activities, if not abandon them,
because of the significant political and financial risks to which they were exposed.

“ Good governance is essential for the management of our fresh water resources which are
more and more limited. It is, moreover, indispensable in poverty reduction ” said Koïchiro Mat-
sura, UNESCO General Director. “ There is no standard recipe in this complex and variable
field. However, we know that good governance must rest on adequate institutions, on national,
regional and local level, on stable and efficient legal frameworks, and on sufficient human and
financial resources ”.

To exercise good governance also requires observing «such fundamental freedoms as freedom
of expression and freedom of association,” the report indicates. It goes on to emphasize: “if the
citizens do not have access to basic information relating to the quality of water and the reserves
available, there is no likelihood whatsoever that they could oppose water developments that are
harmful to the environment or to hold the government bodies responsible“.

There is not master plan designed for the analysis of governance (GEF, 2004). Several organiza-
tions are working on the development of governance indicators. However, their analysis will

82
always translate the cultural, political and social structure of the countries where they are con-
ducted. But, it is generally agreed that the analysis of governance serves as control of the options
of Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) and of the future interventions of the Strategic Action
plan. (GEF, 2004)

The analysis of governance comprises three key elements:

 analysis of the parties involved,
 institutional analysis,
 political/ legal analysis.

The parties involved, in the case of this SAI project, are first of all the governmental institutions of
Mali, Niger and Nigeria in charge of management of the water resources of the Transboundary
aquifers. The beneficiaries are the populations, in particular those of the rural environment, which
will be the first to be affected, being the most vulnerable to the harmful effects of Transboundary
risks.
In the TDA/SAP process, concerted action amongst all stakeholders is a principle that must
prevail. (GEF, 2004) The representatives of these State institutions take part in full in the TDA
development process. They will be duly consulted throughout the process of the Strategic Action
Plan (SAP).
It would, subsequently, be up to these governmental institutions to undertake awareness-raising
among the populations concerned about the risks which threaten the groundwater, as well as to
involve them in the search for sustainable solutions to address such risks.
In the TDA/SAP process, the institutional analysis and the political/ legal analysis are addressed
in two stages: a static analysis and a dynamic analysis.
The institutional analysis refers to the relevant sectors. Its objective is to establish an institutional
map which describes as many key connections and relations as possible amongst various actors.
The institutional analysis is described by:
• a static analysis: a description of the political, institutional and social structures and systems
on national and regional level. An institutional analysis starts with an overview of the political
structure (the formal aspect of government). It should review 1) the relationship between the
political forces involved, 2) the planned administration or State reforms, and 3) the political
relations between the participating countries.
• a dynamic analysis: a diagnosis of the failures of institutional governance-specific dynamics
which are identified in the analysis of the series of the causes considered as underlying ones.

The purpose of the political/ legal analysis is to lay the foundations for the recommendation
of political and legal reforms. This consists in a comprehensive overview of the relevant instru-
ments, while laying particular emphasis on their effective implementation, their compliance and
their bringing into force. The current constraints and obstacles should be also identified. This
analysis is twofold.
• a static analysis: it includes the current national development plans/strategies, the national
environmental plans/strategies, such as- for example- biodiversity strategies, major invest-
ments. It is essential to describe how a political/legal instrument has defined the problem to
which it seeks to bring a solution.
• a dynamic analysis: a diagnosis of the failures of the dynamic policies and of specific govern-
ance which are identified in the analysis of the series of the causes as being underlying ones.
In the case of the present project, the analysis of the stakeholders, the institutional, political and
legal analyses were carried out with the contribution of FAO. The latter brings its support to

83
the three countries under project TCP/RAF/3001, entitled «Setting up a Tripartite Consultation
Mechanism for the Management of the Iullemeden Aquifer System”.
Within the framework of this project (TCP/RAF/3001), two national consultations were con-
ducted simultaneously in each of the three countries:
 the first consultation relates to the analysis and evaluation of the national water regulations
and any relevant bilateral or multilateral agreements in relation to the management and de-
velopment of the water resources of the Iullemeden Aquifer System,
 the second consultation relates to the analysis and evaluation of the situation in matter of
management and development of the water resources of the Iullemeden Aquifer System with
a view to setting up a tripartite mechanism.

The second part supports the first one by narrowing down its focus insofar as most laws and
regulations, policy and strategy documents, developed in the countries, do not highlight properly
the aspects related to the water resources of Transboundary aquifers.

The reports on all these consultations are mentioned below:

 Me Tinougou Sanogo (Mali), 2005. Analysis and evaluation of the national water regulations
and relevant bilateral or trilateral agreements in relation to the management and develop-
ment of the water resources of the Iullemeden Aquifer System. 59 pages.
 Kaïgama Kiari Noudjia (Niger), 2005. Descriptive and analytical stock taking of the water
system in Niger and agreements for the management and development of water resources
 in relation to the Iullemeden Aquifer System (IAS). 44 pages.
 J. Goldface - Irokalibe (Nigeria), 2005. Tripartite consultation mechanism for the Iullemeden
Aquifer System (IAS). 35 pages.

The analysis of the governance of each risk will focus, based on the documents produced by the
countries, on the reasons for the recurrence of negative observations and/or adverse impacts of
these risks and the failures of the policy dynamics and governance.

 Governance analysis of the Change in groundwater availability

The major causes of a reduction of the resource are especially related to an insufficiency of legal
texts in force in matter of shared groundwater resources.

Poor knowledge of the dynamics of the underground flows by the countries concerned is related
to the inexistence of legal texts of international scope codifying the law applying to Transboundary
aquifers, even though Mali, Niger and Nigeria have adopted the principles of an Integrated Man-
agement of the Water Resources (GIRE).

In practice, consultation is absent between Mali, Niger and Nigeria (and, generally, for all the coun-
tries of the (GIRE) zone) as regards the development of programmes for the construction of mod-
ern water points in each country to tap and exploit their common resources. The little awareness
among the countries sharing the same aquifer basin (“basin awareness”) is due, first of all, to the
fact that groundwater is not visible, unlike surface water, such as Niger River and its tributaries.

In spite of the evolution of international relations, the States are and remain the major actors
characterized by principles such as national sovereignty, sovereign equality, and permanent sov-
ereignty over the natural land and ground resources, which affects the effectiveness of agreed
measures.

The reluctance of the States to make concessions on these principles often explains the poor
implementation, if not the absence of implementation, of the Agreements and Conventions which
they subscribe to. This is virtually the case of the Bilateral Agreements on the joint management
84 of the shared waters between Niger and Mali, or Niger and Nigeria, where the joint management
regulations agreed experience implementation difficulties. Moreover, the Bodies specifically creat-
ed to implement such agreements are entirely dependent on the States and have only an advisory
capacity allowing them to make mere recommendations, non binding to the States.

In this regard, the positive results, obtained within the framework of the present project with the
active participation of the representatives of the countries, strongly encourages the countries to
gather increasing awareness about the strategic character of a concerted exploitation of their
shared resources for a sustainable development of the zone. Among such results, one may men-
tion the Common Data Base, the Geographical Information System, the Common Mathemati-
cal Model.

The insufficiency of the legal texts in force on shared groundwater resources is due to the fact
that the Bilateral or Multilateral Conventions in force between Mali, Niger and Nigeria do not
take into consideration the management of Transboundary aquifers. The process of setting up
a tripartite mechanism between these three countries, developed within the framework of the
present project, will lead to drafting relevant legal texts, as well as to a revision of certain texts
now in force.
The lack of clarity of the texts also requires their revision within the framework of a legislative re-
form, and this in order to adapt them to the needs in question. With the advent of decentralization
in Niger, for instance, it leading to a full communalization of the national territory (now counting
two hundred and sixty five (265) communes), the Law on the water system in Niger must be revis-
ited so that it would take into account the role played by these new entities in water management.
In Mali, the legal water system was governed until 31 January 2002 by Law n° 90-17/AN-RM,
dated 7 February 1990; this law was not implemented, due to the absence of the legal implemen-
tation texts.

 Analysis of governance of the Degradation of groundwater quality

In matter of availability of acceptable quality water, the countries have laws together with their
implementation texts. However, in spite of such implementation texts, the law is not observed.
An eloquent and glaring example is that relating to surface water. Wastewater is disposed of in
the river without any appropriate treatment at the location of adjacent cities and from industrial,
domestic and agricultural premises, though this river contributes significantly in drinking water
supply of the capital cities32 (Alhou, 2007).

The non observance of the legal texts and the decrees may be due to several underlying reasons:
 multiplication of the governmental institutions operating all in the same sanitation sector, hy-
giene and quality of the products consumed, in particular water, without efficient consultation;
 absence of an inspection mechanism for the quality of wastewater disposed of in the wild, in
particular absence of a comprehensive inventory of the sources of pollution and investigations,
particularly in quite reluctant industrial and mining plants;
 lack of rigour in taking sanctions against the polluters, which may be due either to abuse mani-
fested in corruption, nepotism or favouritism, or else to the weakness of the control bodies
which are lacking in adequate capacity.

As regards Transboundary water, particularly groundwater, the absence of legal and legislative
instruments in line with the requirements of a Transboundary management focused on the degra-
dation of the quality of the groundwater shared by the three countries, requires the definition and
dissemination of a legal and legislative management framework. Within the framework of setting
up the tripartite consultation mechanism between Mali, Niger and Nigeria, the prerogatives of the
future management structure of the water of the Iullemeden Aquifer System should have force of
law as regards environmental management of this strategic resource.

The following measures may be recommended to reduce the degradation of water quality:
85
 prohibiting any act of pollution by discharge, in the water, of matter of whatever nature likely
to be harmful to public health, and to aquatic fauna and flora;
 submitting all discharges to control by the relevant authority in order to ensure absence of
pollutants;
 the relevant authorities to set water quality standards;
 regulation or prohibition of certain activities in view of water quality standards;
 obligation for any person exercising a pollution generating activity to envisage any measure suit-
able to remove or prevent any risks to the water resource and the hygiene of the medium;
 obligation for any polluter to bear the cost of their polluting activities.

 Governance analysis of Climate variability and change

In spite of the recurrence of droughts and floods in West Africa, in general, and in Mali, Niger and
Nigeria, in particular, and though these countries have ratified environment related treaties, espe-
cially those concerning climate risks (Table 13), the extent of awareness of the countries seems

32
Alhou B., 2007: «Impacts des rejets de la ville de Niamey sur la qualité des eaux du fleuve Niger « (Impact of Was-
tewater Disposal from the City of Niamey on the Water Quality of River Niger ). Doctoral Dissertation, Facultés Univer-
sitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix de Namur (Belgium) and Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey (Niger)
 to be rather insufficient with regard to the threat attendant upon climate variability and change
(UICN, 2003).

MDG
Ratification of environment-related conventions
Carbon dioxide emissions
Classification
according to Portion Kyoto Proto-
UN Fra- UN Fra-
Per inhabitant of world Carthagenna col to the UN
HDI mework mework
(in tons) total Protocol on Framework
Convention Convention
(%) Bio-technolo- Convention
on Climate on Biodiver-
gical Risks on Climate
Change sity
1980 2002 2000 Change
1 Norway 10,6 12,2 0,2    
10 USA 20,0 20,1 24,4   
20 Germany .. 9,8 3,4    
63 Brazil 1,5 1,8 1,3    
127 India 0,5 1,2 4,7    
158 Nigeria 1,0 0,4 0,2    
174 Mali 0,1 (.) (.)    
177 Niger 0,1 0,1 (.)    

Table 13 : Energy and Environment (World Report - UNDP, 2005). The Carthaginian Protocol on Biotech-
nological Risks was signed in 2000, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was
signed in New York in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change was signed in 1997, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Biodiversity was signed in
Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

The root causes of this Transboundary risk are of various types:

 insufficient implementation of the national legislations in force in matter of the environment
86 and management of natural resources, in particular actual implementation of national water
policies;
 insufficient implementation of international environment-related conventions;
 insufficiency (or absence) of a regional consultation framework on climate change due to
insufficiency, within each country, of cooperation and exchanges between experts, on the one
hand, and the structures, on the other hand;
 inadequate financial commitments by the States in seeking out sustainable solutions,
 inadequate use of the results of many research initiatives in the region on the climate and
the water resources so as to enlighten decision-making and to step up the readiness of the
countries to seek out sustainable solutions.

Within the framework of the Water and Climate Dialogue, the West African countries present-
ed their national communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNICN, 2003). These Communications proposed, among others, further measures dedicated to
adaptation to climate variability and change in the water resources sector. The main measures
are as follows:
 inter-basin transfers,
 combined use of surface water and groundwater,
 manmade recharge of aquifers,
 construction of structures allowing the harvesting of runoff water and rain water in order
to avoid losses and reduce phenomena of erosion and flooding, while increasing aquifer re-
charge;
 use of covered pipes in water supply networks;
 induced rain,
 dissemination of more water saving technologies and behaviours;
 recycling of wastewater (domestic and industrial);
 sea water desalinisation;
 afforestation actions for carbon trapping.

Some of the measures proposed are often technically, financially and/or politically impossible to
implement on the level of the countries taken individually. Many of these adaptation measures can
only be relevant when taken on a regional scale.

87
XI. MITIGATION OF TRANSBOUNDARY RISKS
The strategy of reduction of the Transboundary risks is based on the assumption that, on the one
hand, the latter are quantifiable and, on the other hand, that indicators exist to help alert the par-
ties, thus leading them to take the appropriate measures and conduct the actions necessary to
pass to lower emergency rates.

An indicator better translates, indeed, in a synthetic manner, a situation or an action, as well as

the evolution of such situation or action. An indicator is finalized information serving to character-
ize an evolutionary situation, an action, the consequences and the results of an action, to evaluate
and compare them to their status at other dates, whether past or projected, or to the status at
the same date of other similar subjects.

The indicator thus facilitates the interpretation of a situation or reveals a trend or a phenomenon
which are not apparent, as is the case for groundwater. In the case of the present project, the pre-
liminary estimates provided by the mathematical model are the only quantifiable ones; they relate
to the top major Transboundary concern, i.e. the gradual reduction of the renewable groundwater
potential and gradual recourse to non renewable resources.

As of now, in the field of water resources, water saving indicators have already been developed
(1996) by the Observatory of the Sahara and Sahel (OSS) and the Mediterranean Observa-
tory for the Environment and Development (OMED) of the Center of Regional Activities of the
Blue Plan (PAM-UNEP). This appreciable work contributes in the reflection issuing from Agenda
21, which, in its Chapter 40, calls upon the countries and the international organizations, both gov-
ernmental and nongovernmental, to develop activities with a view to identifying useful indicators to
monitor the progress made in matter of sustainable development.

The levels of investment necessary for the mobilization of water resources in sufficient quantity, 89
particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions of the world, are quite high. The tools for evaluation
and monitoring of the situation of these resources and of the uses, appear as key foundations for
the development projects. The main indicators formulated are as follows:
 indicators of state of knowledge of the water resources: 1) data relevance indicator,
2) water competition indicator, 3) per capita resource indicator;
 indicators of internal (natural) exploitability constraints related to the water resources:
1) natural regularity indicator, 2) regularization indicator;
 indicators of external exploitability constraints related to the water resource: 1) independ-
ence indicator, 2) free action indicator;
 indicators of water demand: 1) water use indicator: per capita water demand;
 indicators of sector-based demand: 1) indicators of water demand as per sector, 2) drinking
water production indicator;
 indicators of agricultural demand factors: 1) irrigability indicator, 2) irrigation indicator;
 indicators of urban demand satisfaction: 1) drinking water servicing indicator, 2) connection
rate, 3) sanitation rate, 4) wastewater treatment rate;
 indicators of quantitative pressure: 1) indicator of exploitation of renewable water resources,
2) indicator of non sustainable production, 3) indicator of final consumption;
  indicators of qualitative pressure: 1) indicator of potential depletion of fresh water availability.

In the case under consideration, it is premature to apply the suitable formulas to the resources of
the Iullemeden Aquifer System, insofar as the results obtained represent the preliminary estimates
resulting from the data available in the existing documents. In other words, a field investigation
should make it possible to corroborate these results and to engage consideration of the appropri-
ate strategy(ies) likely to mitigate the Transboundary risks.

Due to their Transboundary character, these risks will be controlled within the framework of the
prerogatives of the tripartite consultation mechanism which Mali, Niger and Nigeria have jointly
accepted the need for its setting up.

90
XII. CONCLUSION
The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA), as supported by such complementary studies as
the mathematical modelling of the Iullemeden Aquifer System and the development of the process
of setting up the tripartite consultation mechanism, has led to highlighting three major Trans-
boundary risks: 1) reduction in groundwater resources, 2) degradation of groundwater qual-
ity, 3) impacts of climate change and variability.

It should be recognised that these are only general preliminary results derived from the data and
information available. Their merit consists in highlighting, on the one hand, the major risks, which
threaten these resources and, on the other hand, the hydraulic relations which exist between
surface water and ground water.

It is understood that strategic actions must be taken to enlighten the technical experts of the
countries who, in their turn, will relay the information to the respective political decision-makers.
Indeed, field investigations must be carried out in each of the countries on specific issues towards
a resolution of, or at least control over, the major Transboundary risks, of which:
 enhancing knowledge about the aquifers based on the collection of field data: (piezometry, ab-
stractions, transmissivities, water chemistry) to corroborate the preliminary results obtained
and take them on board;
 developing relevant indicators for monitoring and control of Transboundary risks (for instance,
indicators of process of water stress and stress reduction, pressure indicators) over relevant
time-periods;
 improving the evaluation (quantification) of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of
the risks;
 revision of institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments, with a view to a resolution of 91
these Transboundary risks, while keeping in mind that, to date, there is neither a relevant text
governing, nor a relevant institution in control of, the management of the water resources of
Transboundary aquifers.

The formulation and the implementation of a Strategic Action Plan represent the suitable frame-
work likely to give concrete expression to these major activities.
92
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97
Scenario 2015
Prospects related to the MDGs – Projections, not Predictions
Our projections for 2015 are not predictions. An analysis of the trends for 1990-2003 allows us
to formulate conjectures about the state of the world in 2015, if the current trends with regard
to the main MDGs were to continue. These projections do not rest on regional averages, but on
national data which offer a more precise overview of the current trend. However, the trends do
not lead to an inevitable scenario. They can be improved or worsened by choices of public policy,
as well as by external factors on which the governments have little influence. To examine the past
in order to anticipate the future may make it possible, nevertheless, to call public attention to
a possible scenario.

Some caveats are in order concerning our analysis of the trends. For many countries and for
several goals, no reliable data is available. Thus, chronological data on education are missing for
46 countries, for instance. There are also problems related to the tendency to examine the points
one by one according to the relevant goal. The progress made in one field depends largely on the
progress achieved in other fields, with multiplier effects on the various goals, such as related to
impact of health on education. Finally, certain factors are likely to hamper progress; in particular,
those which may be regarded as systemic threats are difficult to anticipate.

Among the summary observations which emerge from our analysis of the trends, we may mention
the following:
 50 countries, counting a total of about 900 million inhabitants, report a time-lag with respect
to at least one MDG. Twenty four of them are located in sub-Saharan Africa;
 65 other countries, counting a population of 1.2 billion inhabitants, will not be able to reach at
least one MDG before 2040, which represents a whole generation;
99
 according to current trends, the States would manage to reduce infant mortality by two thirds
only in 2045, i.e. with a time-lag of 31 years. To achieve the MDGs, an average annual reduc-
tion of 2.7% of the incidence of infant mortality is necessary. This rate corresponds to twice
the rate reported between 1990 and 2002.

 Child and mother health: Millions of children condemned to die

 over 45 % of infant deaths (4.9 million in total) take place in 52 countries where the reduction
of infant mortality expresses a decline or a slack progress. Children born in these countries
today, and which live until adulthood, will see little improvement with regard to chances of
survival of their own children;
 according to current trends, sub-Saharan Africa would achieve the MDGs only in 2115,
that is with one century of delay. The two poles of infant mortality in this region are the Demo-
cratic Republic of Congo, where conditions are deteriorating, and Nigeria. The infant mortality
rate of Nigeria has fallen from 235 per 1000 living births to 198 per 1000 since 1990. At
this rate, it would take this country 40 years to reach the relevant MDG.

Two thirds of infant deaths occur in 13 country, of which only two (Bangladesh and Indonesia) are
on the way of achieving the MDG. Four other countries (China, India, Niger and Pakistan) would
achieve this goal between 2015 and 2040. The others (in particular Afghanistan, Angola, and
 the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda) have more than one
generation of delay or are regressing.

 Water and sanitation: Over a billion people are deprived of the

Progress in matter of access to water and sanitation will have a significant impact on child mortal-
ity. The goal which consists in reducing by a half the number of persons deprived of access to bet-
ter quality water will not be achieved, thus affecting 210 million persons. Besides, over two billion
persons will still be deprived of access to better sanitary conditions in 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa
is the region most adversely affected by this delay.

 Reducing by a half the rates of extreme poverty and malnutrition depends on growth
and distribution

About 800 million people would live on less than one dollar per day and 1.7 billion people on less
than two dollars per day in 2015. The incidence of poverty measured by the “one dollar per day”
threshold would decrease from the current 21% to 14% in 2015. The distribution of poverty
according to the regions would also change. The share of sub-Saharan Africa in the poverty
measured by the threshold of one dollar per day would experience a rapid increase from the
current 24% to 41% in 2015.

The growing weight of sub-Saharan Africa in world poverty up to 2015 is the reflection of a weak
growth since 1990, to which is added a particularly unequal distribution of income. To achieve the
MDG in 2015, the region must reach an annual per capita growth rate of about 5% during the next
decade, which is hardly possible.

 Education: Failure of schooling for al

Education is an end in itself in matter of human development and a key to progress in other fields.
The pledge to ensure schooling for all children and to bridge the gender disparities in matter of
education stands as symbol for the immense hope to break the vicious circle of inter-generation

100
transmission of poverty. If the current trends continue:
 the goal of establishing universal primary education by 2015 will not be achieved before at
least another decade. Forty seven (47) million children would not be provided with educa-
tion by 2015, of which 19 million in sub-Saharan Africa.
 46 countries are lagging behind in this field or will not achieve this MDG before 2040. Of the
110 million non schooled children, 23 million live in developing countries.

 Gender equality and woman participation: A MDG already missed

By 2015, the gap related to the gender equality goal would amount to 6 million non schooled girls,
most of whom in sub-Saharan Africa. In the 41 countries where 20 millions girls are currently not
schooled, the gender gap either increases or is narrowed so slowly that gender equality could not
be achieved before 2040.

In fine,

International assistance is a most effective means of poverty reduction. As of now, it is under-

utilized, badly targeted and must be revisited. A reform of the international aid system is a key
requirement to get back on course with regard to the Millennium Development Goals.

Assistance is sometimes perceived in the rich countries as a one way act of charity. This view
misses the right issue. In a world of interdependent risks and chances, threats and opportuni-
ties, aid constitutes an investment and a moral obligation, an investment in shared prosperity,
collective security and a common future. The absence of investment on a sufficient scale today will
incur costs tomorrow.

Development aid is at the heart of the new partnership for development instituted by the Millen-
nium Declaration. As in any partnership, each of the parties has responsibilities and duties. The
developing countries must create an environment in which aid can lead to optimal results. On their
part, the rich countries must keep their commitments.

There are three requirements for effective assistance:

 firstly, it must be provided in sufficient quantity to sustain a takeoff of human development.
It provides the governments with the means to invest in health, education and economic infra-
structure in order to break the cycles of deprivation and sustain recovery; these means must
be commensurate with the financing necessary;
 secondly, assistance must be provided on a predictable, less costly and profitable basis;
 thirdly, in order to be effective, assistance must be a matter of «ownership». Developing
countries, thus, assume primary responsibility in creating the conditions under which assist-
ance can lead to optimal results. While progress has been reported in terms of quantitative
increase and qualitative improvement of assistance, none of these conditions has, however,
been met as yet.

When the Millennium Declaration was signed, the development aid basket was three quarters
empty and there was a hole at the bottom of it.

101
 102
Combined gross GDP per capita
Adult literacy
Human deve- Expectancy enrolment ratio for
rate GDP per capita (PPP US$) rank
lopment index at birth primary, secondary
and tertiary schools Life Expec- Education minus
HDI rank (HDI) value (% ages 15 and (PPP US$) GDP index
(years) tancy index index
above) HDI rank
2003 (%) 2003
2003
2003
2002/03

1 Norway 0,963 79,4 .. 101 37670 0,91 0,99 0,99 2

10 USA 0,944 77,4 .. 93 37562 0,87 0,97 0,99 –6
20 Germany 0,930 78,7 .. 89 27756 0,90 0,96 0,94 –6
63 Brazil 0,792 70,5 88,4 91 7790 0,76 0,89 0,73 1
127 India 0,602 63,3 61,0 60 2892 0,64 0,61 0,56 –9
158 Nigeria 0,453 43,4 66,8 64 1050 0,31 0,66 0,39 2
174 Mali 0,333 47,9 19,0 32 994 0,38 0,23 0,38 –10
177 Niger 0,281 44,4 14,4 21 835 0,32 0,17 0,35 –8

Table 14 : Human development index (HDI) (UNDP, 2005)

HDI rank 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003

1 Norway 0,868 0,888 0,898 0,912 0,936 0,956 0,963

10 USA 0,867 0,887 0,901 0,916 0,929 0,938 0,944
20 Germany .. 0,861 0,869 0,888 0,913 0,927 0,930
63 Brazil 0,645 0,682 0,698 0,719 0,747 0,783 0,792
127 India 0,412 0,438 0,476 0,513 0,546 0,577 0,602
158 Nigeria 0,318 0,376 0,386 0,406 0,418 .. 0,453
174 Mali 0,253 0,273 0,297 0,305 0,311 0,328 0,317
177 Niger 0,236 0,252 0,242 0,249 0,256 0,271 0,281

Table 15 : Human development index trends (UNDP, 2005)

 MDG
Human poverty index Population Population below income po-
(HPI-1) without sustai- MDG verty line
Probability at birth of Adult illiteracy HPI-1 rank
nable access Children under (%)
not surviving to age 40 Rate (% ages 15 minus
HDI rank to an improved weight for age (%
(% of cohort) and above) water source income po-
under age 5) National
2000–2005 2003 $1a $2a verty rank
(%) 1995–2003 poverty
day dayr
Rank Value (%) 2002 line
1990– 1990–
1990–
2003 2003
2002
63 Brazil 20 10,3 10,3 11,6 11 6 8,2 22,4 17,4 –5
127 India 58 31,3 16,6 39,0 14 47 34,7 79,9 28,6 –12
158 Nigeria 75 38,8 46,0 33,2 40 29 70,2 90,8 34,1 –19
174 Mali 101 60,3 37,3 81,0 52 33 72,3 90,6 63,8 –2

177 Niger 103 64,4 41,4 85,6 54 40 61,4 85,3 63,0 4

Table 16 : Human and income poverty: developing countries (UNDP, 2005)

Population
Total population Population aged less Total fertility rate
Annual demographic growth Urban population aged 65+
than 15 years
(in millions) rate (%) (in % of total) years (births per woman)
HDI rank (in % of total)
(in % of total)
1975 2003 2015 1975–2003 2003–2015 1975 2003 2015 2003 2015 2003 2015 1970–1975 2000-2005

1 Norway 4,0 4,6 4,8 0,5 0,5 68,2 78,6 86,4 19,9 17,5 13,3 17,5 2,2 1,8
10 USA 220,2 292,6 325,7 1,0 0,9 73,7 80,1 83,6 21,1 19,7 10,7 14,1 2,0 2,0
20 Germany 78,7 82,6 82,5 0,2 (,) 81,2 88,1 90,0 14,8 12,9 15,0 20,7 1,6 1,3
63 Brazil 108,1 181,4 209,4 1,8 1,2 61,2 83,0 88,4 28,4 25,4 4,9 7,8 4,7 2,3
127 India 620,7 1,070,8 1,260,4 1,9 1,4 21,3 28,3 32,2 32,9 28,0 4,1 6,2 5,4 3,1
158 Nigeria 58,9 125,9 160,9 2,7 2,0 23,4 46,6 55,5 44,7 41,3 2,4 3,2 6,9 5,8
174 Mali 6,2 12,7 18,1 2,6 2,9 16,2 32,3 40,9 48,3 46,7 2,2 2,4 7,6 6,9
177 Niger 5,3 13,1 19,3 3,2 3,3 10,6 22,2 29,7 49,0 47,9 1,6 2,0 8,1 7,9

Table 17 : Demographic trends (UNDP, 2005)

103
 104
MDG
Health expenditure Children with diarrhea re- MDG
One-year-olds fully immuni- Contraceptive Physicians
ceiving oral rehydration Births attended
zed against Prevalence (per 100,000
HDI rank and continued feeding by skilled health
rate (%) people)
Public Private Per capita tuberculosis measles (% under age 5) personnel (%)
1995–2003 1990–2004
(% of GDP) (% of GDP) (PPP US$) (%) (%) 1994–2003 1995–2003
2002 2002 2002 2003 2003
1 Norway 8,0 1,6 3409 .. 84 .. 74 100 356
10 USA 6,6 8,0 5274 .. 93 .. 76 99 549
20 Germany 8,6 2,3 2817 .. 92 .. 75 100 362
63 Brazil 3,6 4,3 611 99 99 28 77 88 206
127 India 1,3 4,8 96 81 67 22 48 43 51
158 Nigeria 1,2 3,5 43 48 35 28 13 35 27
174 Mali 2,3 2,2 33 63 68 45 8 41 4
177 Niger 2,0 2,0 27 64 64 43 14 16 3

Table 18 : Commitment to health: resources, access and services (UNDP, 2005)

MDG MDG MDG Children under height

MDG Infants with
Population with sustaina- Population with sustainable Children under weight for age
Population undernourished low birth-
HDI rank ble access to improved access to an improved water for age
(% of total) (% under age 5) weight (%)
sanitation (%) source (%) (% under age 5)
1990 2002 1990 2002 1990/1992 2000/2002 1995–2003 1995–2003 1998–2003
1 Norway .. .. 100 100 .. .. .. .. 5
10 USA 100 100 100 100 .. .. 1 2 8
20 Germany .. .. 100 100 .. .. .. .. 7
63 Brazil 70 75 83 89 12 9 6 11 10
127 India 12 30 68 86 25 21 47 46 30
158 Nigeria 39 38 49 60 13 9 29 38 14
174 Mali 36 45 34 48 29 29 33 38 23
177 Niger 7 12 40 46 41 34 40 40 17

Table 19 : Water, sanitation and nutritional status (UNDP, 2005)

 HIV MDG MDG
Prevalence of smoking
prevalence Condom use at last high- Malaria cases MDG MDG
(% of adults)
(% ages risk sex (per 100,000 Children under age 5 Tuberculosis case
15–49) (% ages 15–24) people)
HDI rank
With fever Cured Un-
Women Per Detected
Men With insecticide treated with der DOTS Women Men
(%) 100,000 under
2003 1998– 2000 treated bednets ( %) anti-malarial 2000– 2000–
1998– People DOTS (%) (%)
2003 1999–2003 drugs (%) 2002 2002
2003 2003 2003 2003
1999–2003
1 Norway 0,1 [0,0–0,2] .. .. .. .. .. 5 46 80 32 31
10 USA 0,6 [0,3–1,1] .. .. .. .. .. 3 89 70 21 26
20 Germany 0,1 [0,1–0,2] .. .. .. .. .. 7 55 69 31 39
63 Brazil 0,7 [0,3–1,1] .. .. 344 .. .. 91 18 75 27 35
127 India [0,4–1,3] 51 59 7 .. .. 287 47 87 .. ..
158 Nigeria 5,4 [3,6–8,0] 24 46 30 1 34 518 18 79 .. ..
174 Mali 1,9 [0,6–5,9] 14 30 4008 8 38 582 18 50
177 Niger 1,2 [0,7–2,3] 7 30 1 693 6 48 272 54 .. ..

Table 20 : Leading global health crises and risks (UNDP, 2005)

Public expenditure on education

HDI rank As % of GDP As % of total government expenditure Pre-primary and primary Secondary Tertiary

1990 2000–2002 1990 2000–2002 1990 2000–2002 1990 2000–2002 1990 2000–2002
1 Norway 7,0 7,6 14,6 16,2 39,5 36,5 24,7 33,0 15,2 27,5
10 USA 5,1 5,7 12,3 17,1 .. 39,5 .. 35,3 .. 25,2
20 Germany .. 4,6 .. 9,5 .. 22 .. 49,0 .. 24,5
63 Brazil .. 4,2 .. 12,0 .. 38,3 .. 40,1 .. 21,6
127 India 3,7 4,1 12,2 12,7 38,9 38,4 27,0 40,1 14,9 20,3
158 Nigeria 0,9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
174 Mali .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
177 Niger 3,2 2,3 18,6 .. .. 51,5 .. 24,4 .. ..
Table 21 : Commitment to education: public spending (UNDP, 2005)
105
 106
Tertiary students in
Adult literacy rate MDG MDG MDG science, math and
Net secondary enrolment engineering
(% ages 15 and Youth literacy rate Net primary enrolment Children reaching grade 5
HDI rank ratio (%)
above) (% ages 15–24) ratio (%) (% of grade 1 students) (% of all tertiary stu-
dents)

1990 2003 1990 2003 1990-1991 2002-2003 1990-1991 2002-2003 1990-1991 2001-2002 1998-2003
1 Norway .. .. .. .. 100 100 88 96 100 100 18
10 USA .. .. .. .. 97 92 85 88 .. .. ..
20 Germany .. .. .. .. 84 83 .. 88 .. .. 29
63 Brazil 82,0 88,4 91,8 96,6 86 97 15 75 .. .. ..
127 India 49,3 61,0 64,3 76,4 .. 87 .. .. .. 84 20
158 Nigeria 48,7 66,8 73,6 88,6 60 67 .. 29 .. .. ..
174 Mali 18,8 19,0 27,6 24,2 20 45 5 .. 73 75 ..
177 Niger 11,4 14,4 17,0 19,8 24 38 6 6 62 69 ..

Table 22 : Literacy and enrolment (UNDP, 2005)

GDP GDP per capita GDP per capita

Average annual change in
Highest value during consumer price index
PPP US$ PPP Annual growth rate Year of highest
HDI rank US$ billions US$ 1975–2003 (PPP (%)
billions US$ (%) value
US$)

2003 2003 2003 2003 1975–2003 1990–2003 1990–2003 2002–2003

1 Norway 220,9 171,9 48412 37670 2,8 2,9 37911 2001 2,3 2,5
10 USA 10948,5 10923,4 37648 37562 2,0 2,1 37562 2003 2,6 2,3
20 Germany 2403,2 2291,0 29115 27756 2,0 1,3 27769 2001 1,8 1,0
63 Brazil 492,3 1375,7 2788 7790 0,8 1,2 7918 2002 114,0 14,7
127 India 600,6 3 078,2 564 2 892 3,3 4,0 2 892 2003 7,9 3,8
158 Nigeria 58,4 143,3 428 1050 –0,5 (.) 1086 1977 26,0 14,0
174 Mali 4,3 11,6 371 994 (,) 2,4 995 2002 4,3 –1,3
177 Niger 2,7 9,8 232 835 –1,8 –0,6 1383 1979 5,0 –1,6

Table 23 : Economic performance (UNDP, 2005)

 Imports of goods and Exports of goods and Manufactured exports High-technology exports
Primary exports (% of Terms of trade
services services (% of merchandise ex- (% of manufactured
HDI rank merchandise exports) (1980=100)
(% of GDP) (% of GDP) ports) exports)

1990 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003 2002
1 Norway 34 28 4 41 67 74 33 21 12 19 71
10 USA 11 14 10 10 22 16 74 80 33 31 119
20 Germany 25 32 25 36 10 9 89 84 11 16 117
63 Brazil 7 13 8 17 47 47 52 52 7 12 145
127 India 9 16 7 14 28 22 71 77 2 5 131
158 Nigeria 29 41 43 50 .. .. .. .. .. .. 28
174 Mali 34 31 17 26 .. 59 2 40 .. 8 95
177 Niger 22 25 15 16 .. 91 .. 8 .. 3 ..

Table 24 : The structure of trade (UNDP, 2005)

Official development assistance (ODA) received MDG

(net disbursements) Net foreign direct invest- Total debt service
Other private flows
ment inflows
HDI rank Per capita (% of GDP) As % of exports of
(% of GDP)
Total (US$ millions) As % of GDP As % of GDP goods, services and net
(US$) income from abroad
2003 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003 1990 2003
1 Norway
10 USA
20 Germany
63 Brazil 296,0 1,7 (.) 0,1 0,2 2,1 –0,1 0,7 1,8 11,5 18,5 38,6
127 India 942,2 0,9 0,4 0,2 0,1 0,7 0,5 1,1 2,6 3,4 29,3 18,1
158 Nigeria 317,6 2,3 0,9 0,5 2,1 2,1 –0,4 –0,4 11,7 2,8 22,3 ..
174 Mali 527,6 45,3 19,9 12,2 0,2 3,0 (.) 0,0 2,8 1,8 14,7 5,8
177 Niger 453,3 38,5 16,0 16,6 1,6 1,1 0,4 –0,3 4,0 1,2 6,6 6,4

Table 25 : Flows of aid, private capital and debt (UNDP, 2005)

107
 108
Public expenditure on education Public expenditure on health Military expenditure Total debt service
HDI rank (% of GDP) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) (% of GDP))

1990 2000–2002 1990 2002 1990 2003 1990 2003

1 Norway 7,0 7,6 8,0 8,0 2,9 2,0
10 USA 5,1 5,7 6,6 6,6 5,3 3,8
20 Germany .. 4,6 8,6 8,6 2,8 1,4
63 Brazil .. 4,2 3,6 3,6 2,5 1,6 1,8 11,5
127 India 3,7 4,1 1,3 1,3 2,7 2,1 2,6 3,4
158 Nigeria 0,9 .. 1,2 1,2 0,9 1,2 11,7 2,8
174 Mali .. .. 2,3 2,3 2,1 1,9 2,8 1,8
177 Niger 3,2 2,3 2,0 2,0 .. .. 4,0 1,2

Table 26 : Priorities in public spending (UNDP, 2005)

MDG MDG
Traditional fuel Electricity GDP per unit of Ratification of environmental treaties
Carbon dioxide emissions
consumption consumption per energy use
(% of total energy capita (2000 PPP US$ Share of
HDI rank requirements) (kilowatt-hours) Per capita Kyoto Protocol
per kg of oil equiva- world total Framework Conven-
lent) (metric tons) Cartagena to the Fra-
(%) Convention tion On
Protocol on mework Conven-
on Climate Biological
Biosafety tion on Climate
2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 1980 2002 2000 Change Diversity
Change

1 Norway .. 22400 26640 4,6 6,1 10,6 12,2 0,2    

10 USA 3,6 10336 13 456 2,8 4,4 20,0 20,1 24,4   
20 Germany .. .. 6 989 3,9 6,2 .. 9,8 3,4    
63 Brazil 26,7 1145 2183 7,4 6,8 1,5 1,8 1,3    
127 India 20,0 173 569 3,3 5,0 0,5 1,2 4,7    
158 Nigeria 46,4 108 148 1,4 1,3 1,0 0,4 0,2    
174 Mali 85,0 15 33 .. .. 0,1 (.) (.)    
177 Niger 85,3 39 40 .. .. 0,1 0,1 (.)    

Table 27 : Energy and the environment (UNDP, 2005)

 Iullemeden Aquifer System
Iullemeden Aquifer System
Volume I – Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Mali - Niger - Nigeria

The Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis approach, advocated by the GEF for International
Niamey
Waters, was applied to the water resources of the Iullemeden Aquifer System. It is a first
on the African continent.
It is an objective assessment of scientific and technical facts based mainly on using the
best information available and checked. It is made of trans-sectional manner, focusing on
transboundary issues without ignoring national concerns and priorities. The TDA is used to
determine the relative importance of the sources, causes and impacts on transboundary
issues in water. Its objectives are:
 to identify, to quantify and to set priorities for environmental problems that are trans-
boundary in nature;
 to identify their immediate, underlying and root causes.

Volume I
The main steps of the TDA are: 1) the analysis of impacts and consequences of each
transboundary issue, 2) the final prioritization of transboundary issues, 3) the causal chain
transBOUNDARY diagnostiC AnalysIS
analysis and governance analysis, 4) the production and the adoption of the full document
of the ADT by the Steering Committee.
Through TDA, three major transboundary risks have been identified: (a) the decrease of
the water resource, (b) the degradation of water quality, and (c) the impacts of climate
variability / change. This activity obviously required the development of a database of more
than 17 200 water points, a Geographic Information System and a mathematical model.
This mathematical model, among others, highlighted the overexploitation since 1995 and
an interconnection between the Niger River and groundwater.
In the interest of good governance of this common strategic resource, countries have
adopted a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a legal and consultative framework
for joint management and for rational and equitable exploitation

Volume II: Common database Volume III: Hydrogeological Model

Volume IV: Participatory management of Volume V: Monitoring & Evaluation of
transboundary risks transboundary aquifers

Partners Edited
with the financial support of
Mali IAEA ESA FAO

Niger United Nations

Educational, Scientific and
International
Hydrological
Cultural Organization Programme

Nigeria GEF Unesco UNEP

Sahara and Sahel Observatory

Bd du Leader Y. Arafat, BP 31, 1080 Tunis Carthage, Tunisia
Tel. : (+216).71.206.633 - Fax : (+216).71.206.636
URL : www.oss-online.org - Email : boc@oss.org.tn I SAHARA AND SAHEL OBSERVATORY