🎲 What is Probability (in simple words)?

Probability tells you how likely something is to happen.

 If something can’t happen, its probability is 0.

 If something must happen, its probability is 1.

 Most things are in-between, like 0.5 (which means a 50% chance).

🎯 Formula (for equally likely outcomes)

Probability=Favorable OutcomesTotal Possible Outcomes\text{Probability} = \frac{\

text{Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Possible
Outcomes}}Probability=Total Possible OutcomesFavorable Outcomes

Now let’s go term-by-term with real-life examples:

🔑 Important Terms (Super Simple)

1. ✅ Experiment

An experiment is just any activity where you don’t know what will happen before doing it.

📌 Example: Tossing a coin is an experiment — you don’t know if you’ll get Heads or Tails.

2. ✅ Sample Space (S)

The sample space is the list of all possible results (outcomes) of an experiment.

📌 Example: Tossing a coin

Sample space = {Heads, Tails}

📌 Example: Rolling a die

Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

3. ✅ Event (E)

An event is what you are looking for or interested in.

📌 Example: You roll a die and want a number greater than 4.

That’s your event: E = {5, 6}
📌 Example: Drawing a red card from a deck
Event = any red card (Hearts or Diamonds)

So: Event = A specific outcome or group of outcomes from the sample space

4. ✅ Favorable Outcomes

These are the outcomes that match your event — they are the “wins” in your scenario.

📌 Example: You roll a die. What's the probability of getting a 3?

Favorable outcomes = {3} → only one!

📌 Example: Tossing a coin — probability of getting Heads

Favorable outcome = {Heads}

📌 Summary Table (with simple examples)

Term Meaning Example

Experiment An activity with uncertain result Tossing a coin

Sample Space All possible outcomes {Heads, Tails}

Event What we want Getting Heads

Favorable Outcomes The “wins” for our event Just {Heads} in this case

📘 2. Types of Events

✅ A. Mutually Exclusive Events

🔍 What It Means:

Two events that cannot happen at the same time.

If Event A happens, Event B can’t.

If Event B happens, Event A can’t.

📌 Example:
You roll a die once.
What is the probability of getting a 3 or a 5?

Let’s break it down:

 Sample space (S): {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

 Event A: Getting a 3 → A = {3}

 Event B: Getting a 5 → B = {5}

🧠 Can both 3 and 5 happen at the same time in one roll?

❌ No! Only one number can appear in one roll.

So: A and B are Mutually Exclusive

📐 Rule:

P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)

✅ Solved Example 1:

❓ What is the probability of getting a 3 or a 5?

 P(3) = 1/6

 P(5) = 1/6

P(3 or 5)=16+16=26=13P(3 \text{ or } 5) = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}

{3}P(3 or 5)=61+61=62=31

🎯 Final Answer: 1/3

✅ Solved Example 2:

A card is drawn from a deck of 52.

Let A = drawing a King,
Let B = drawing a Queen

Can you get both a King and a Queen in one draw? ❌ No.

So they are mutually exclusive.

 P(King) = 4/52

 P(Queen) = 4/52
P(King or Queen)=452+452=852=213P(King \text{ or } Queen) = \frac{4}{52} + \frac{4}{52} = \
frac{8}{52} = \frac{2}{13}P(King or Queen)=524+524=528=132

🎯 Final Answer: 2/13

✅ Solved Example 3:

You roll a die.

A = getting an even number → {2, 4, 6}
B = getting an odd number → {1, 3, 5}

👉 Can you get both an odd and an even number at once? ❌ No

➡️Mutually exclusive

P(Even or Odd)=P(Even)+P(Odd)=36+36=1P(Even \text{ or } Odd) = P(Even) + P(Odd) = \

frac{3}{6} + \frac{3}{6} = 1P(Even or Odd)=P(Even)+P(Odd)=63+63=1

🎯 Final Answer: 1 (Makes sense — every number is either even or odd!)

✅ B. Independent Events

🔍 What It Means:

Two events are independent if the result of one does not affect the other.

📌 Real-Life Example:

You toss two coins.

 Coin 1 result: Heads or Tails

 Coin 2 result: Heads or Tails

The outcome of Coin 1 doesn’t change what happens with Coin 2 → Independent

📐 Rule:

P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \cdot P(B)P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)

✅ Solved Example 1:
You toss 2 coins.
What is the probability of both showing Heads?

 P(H on 1st) = 1/2

 P(H on 2nd) = 1/2

P(HandH)=12⋅12=14P(H and H) = \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}P(HandH)=21⋅21

=41

🎯 Final Answer: 1/4

✅ Solved Example 2:

You roll a die and toss a coin.

What is the probability of getting a 6 and a Head?

 P(6 on die) = 1/6

 P(Head on coin) = 1/2

P(6 and H)=16⋅12=112P(6 \text{ and } H) = \frac{1}{6} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}

{12}P(6 and H)=61⋅21=121

🎯 Final Answer: 1/12

✅ Solved Example 3:

You pick a card from a deck, put it back, then pick again.

Let A = drawing an Ace

Let B = drawing a King

Since you replace the card, both draws are independent

 P(Ace) = 4/52

 P(King) = 4/52

P(A and B)=452⋅452=162704=1169P(A \text{ and } B) = \frac{4}{52} \cdot \frac{4}{52} = \

frac{16}{2704} = \frac{1}{169}P(A and B)=524⋅524=270416=1691

🎯 Final Answer: 1/169

🟦 PART 1: Conditional Probability

✅ What is it? (Super Simple)

Conditional probability is the chance that something happens given that something else
already happened.

We write it as:

P(A∣B)=Probability of A given B already happenedP(A|B) = \text{Probability of A given B

already happened}P(A∣B)=Probability of A given B already happened

✅ Formula:

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)

🧠 How to Know It’s a Conditional Probability Question?

Look for phrases like:

 "Given that..."

 "If ___ already happened..."

 "What is the probability of ___ assuming ___?"

📦 Real-Life Example:

A box has 5 red balls and 3 green balls.

You take out 1 ball and it's red.
Now, what’s the probability the next one is also red?

 First red is already taken → this changes the total.

 So this is conditional probability.

🎯 Solved Questions (Step-by-step)

🔢 Q1. A deck has 52 cards.

What is the probability that a second card is a heart given that the first card was also a
heart? (No replacement)

✅ Step 1: There are 13 hearts in a deck.

 First heart: P=1352P = \frac{13}{52}P=5213

  One heart is taken out → 12 hearts left, 51 cards remaining

✅ Step 2:

P(2nd Heart | 1st Heart)=1251P(\text{2nd Heart | 1st Heart}) = \frac{12}

{51}P(2nd Heart | 1st Heart)=5112

🔢 Q2. A class has 7 boys and 3 girls. Two students are selected without replacement.

What is the probability the second student is a girl given the first is a girl?

✅ Step 1:

 First girl taken → now only 2 girls left

 Total now = 9 students

✅ Step 2:

P(2nd is Girl | 1st is Girl)=29P(\text{2nd is Girl | 1st is Girl}) = \frac{2}

{9}P(2nd is Girl | 1st is Girl)=92

🔢 Q3. A machine produces 90% good items. 10% are defective.

If an item is already known to be defective, what’s the probability it came from Machine A
(details given)?
👉 This is actually a Bayes’ theorem problem (we’ll do this below).

🔢 Q4. Bag A has 2 red & 3 green balls. Bag B has 4 red & 1 green.

One bag is chosen at random. Then, a red ball is picked.

What is the probability that it came from Bag B?

👉 This is also a Bayes’ theorem question.

(More on that in the next section.)

🔢 Q5. There are 5 men and 5 women in a team.

If one person is chosen randomly and is a woman, what is the chance that the second
person (without replacement) is a man?

✅ Step 1:

 After 1 woman is chosen → 5 men, 4 women left = 9 total

✅ Step 2:
P(2nd is man | 1st is woman)=59P(\text{2nd is man | 1st is woman}) = \frac{5}
{9}P(2nd is man | 1st is woman)=95