Crossrail 2 - Planning for the Future
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Guest presentation by Dr Michele Dix, Managing Director of Crossrail 2 (crossrail2.co.uk). Presented at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, Feb. 2016. [Copyright TfL, reproduced here with permission].
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Crossrail 2 - Planning for the Future
- 1. Planning for the Future – Crossrail 2 Leeds University – 17 February 2016 Michele Dix, Managing Director
- 2. TfL’s purpose • Meet the rising expectations of our customers and users • Plan ahead to meet the challenges of a growing population • Unlock economic development and growth Keep London working and growing and make life in London better
- 3. What we do Number of journeys made in London in 2013/14 2.4 bn Buses 1.5 m Dial-a-ride Rivers 8.6 m Santander cycles 8.2 m Emirates Air Line DLR 101.6 m 205.3 m London Overground 135.7 m Tramlink 31.2 m 1.26 bn London Underground Cycling Taxi and PHV 147.5 m 3.65 bn Roads (minus Taxi/PHV) 1.4 m More than 30 million journeys every day Public transport mode share for London has increased by 10.6% since 2000 We are delivering one of the world's largest investment programmes We manage 580km of London's busiest roads and all 6,200 traffic signals We regulate taxis and private hire trade £200bn of freight is moved on London's roads every year We operate the Congestion Charging and Low Emission Zone
- 4. The Role of Mayoral Strategies Democratic accountability and transparency
- 5. The Mayor's Transport Strategy – 2010 Objectives
- 6. Sources of funding – 2015/16 Total income £11bn 42% 17% 8% 6% 20% 7% Fares Grant Crossrail grant Commercial and Congestion Charge Cash and borrowing Business Rate Retention
- 7. Where the money is spent – 2015/16 All income is spent on running and improving transport services. Because of this, there is no 'retained profit'. Investmen t Running the network £11b n 34 % 66 %
- 9. Ensuring population growth is productive growth London is already one of the most densely inhabited and productive world cities and therefore vital to the UK economy – its growth will be accommodated by further increasing the density of new development. 1.6m New Londoners 0.6 m New jobs Population Employment
- 10. Billions more trips on public transport and roads 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 million residents billion trips 11bn annual trips in 2030 London's population: 10m in 2030
- 11. Opportunities across London Opportunity AreaArea for Intensification
- 12. Transport investment We are delivering one of the largest and most complex programmes of transport capital investment in the world £4bn Roads Modernisation Programme Europe’s largest infrastructure project, Crossrail Tube and Rail Modernisation Programme £900m Cycling Vision
- 13. Five major schemes: to enable growth, movement and rejuvenate public space A total of 169 smaller schemes to improve our roads 12 key junction improvements addressing safety Signal modernisation: dynamic control cuts delays by 12% at junctions Modernisation and maintenance of 1,800 bridges and 12 tunnels, 9,000,000m2 of carriageway, 1,000+ miles of footways and cycle lanes Our Capital Programme – optimising
- 14. Example: Old Street £17m investment £26.5m user benefits £32.6m local property value increase (estimated benefits due to improved urban realm in addition to positive standard cost-benefit analysis) Investing in the urban realm
- 15. Our plan will deliver a 5% bus network capacity increase 89% of London’s business leaders think there should be funding to keep bus fares affordable across London Sustaining the bus network
- 16. Health impacts of poor air quality will become more challenging as London grows and becomes increasingly dense. We have already taken a number of steps in recent years to reduce transport-related emissions, including: Lo London-wide Low Emission Zone Ultra Low Emission Zone Congestion Charge Taxi age limits Cleaner buses Ultra Low Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Sustainable Transport Mayor’s Air Quality Fund Air quality – action for health
- 17. • Today 25% of our Tube stations are step- free from street to platform • By 2024 56% of all our stations will be step-free • All our buses and the DLR are accessible • Our investment includes accessibility features as standard in new rolling stock, buses, station upgrades, roads schemes and urban realm improvements that will support more independent travel by disabled people Accessibility – access to opportunities
- 18. • New walk-through, higher-capacity trains on the District line • 36 trains per hour on the Victoria, Jubilee & • Northern lines • Major station transformations at Tottenham Court Road , Bond Street, Victoria, Bank, Holborn & Camden • The Northern line Extension • Signalling modernisation for faster, more frequent trains on the District, Circle, Metropolitan &Hammersmith & City lines Desk fans used to cool Earl's Court signalling equipment, 2015 Nearly all (99%) London business leaders think the Tube modernisations should be a priority Our Capital Programme – Tube modernisation
- 19. Once completed it will deliver: • 60 per cent increase in capacity on the line • Around 100 new trains • At least 33 trains per hour Our Capital Programme – Piccadilly line upgrade
- 20. Improvements are being delivered now but new investment and trains will come post 2025 Bakerloo and Central line investment
- 21. 50% of Night Bus users are going to or from work Night Bus use has increased 170% since 2000 £360m boost to the economy At least 2,000 new jobs Night Tube – transforming the night-time economy
- 22. Improving existing networks is essential but new links are also needed 198 1 199 9 198 7 201 9 Transport links at Canary Wharf New road links Buses DLR Jubilee Crossrail
- 23. Only integrated plans can unlock growth Example OpportunityAreas Vauxhall Nine Elms – 24,000 new jobs, 16,000 new homes • Roads improvements • Reconfiguring bus routes • Station capacity upgrade • New Tube Extension Barking Riverside – 10,800 new homes • High-quality new bus service • Road investment • New rail extension
- 24. Future infrastructure projects • The next big infrastructure projects to drive continued economic growth in London and across the UK are schemes with the potential to unlock new homes and jobs in areas of London with major development capacity • Crossrail 2 is an immediate priority East London river crossings Tram extensions Bakerloo line extension Road tunnels
- 25. 25 Crossrail 2 – what role does it play • A brand new railway line, serving London and the wider South East. • Over 70km of tunnel would connect the existing National Rail networks in Surrey and Hertfordshire, through central London. 51 stations served directly by Crossrail 2 services • High frequency: trains up to every 120 seconds (30 trains per hour) in central core • Provides additional rail capacity for 270,000 people to travel into central London during the peak period • Construction could start in 2020, with the scheme open around 2030 • Joint TfL/Network Rail project
- 26. Year Output Outcome 1944 GLP Concept of a cross London tunnelled rail service introduced. 1974 London Rail Study Chelsea-Hackney Underground line identified as possible scheme to serve future demand 1989 Central London Rail Study Continued support for Chelsea-Hackney line as part of wider need for additional rail capacity 1991 Safeguarding Chelsea-Hackney line adopted and directions issued 2000 London East- West study Recommended further study to look into feasibility of Chelsea-Hackney to be delivered post-Crossrail 2002- 2008 Continued investigation Ongoing engineering feasibility, planning and optioneering work on Chelsea-Hackney line. 2008 Crossrail Royal Assent Crossrail Bill becomes a Parliamentary Act 2008 Safeguarding refresh Safeguarding directions for Chelsea-Hackney line updated 2009 DfT requests Mayor &TfL review scheme TfL to review case for scheme, identifying new options in light of emerging London transport (MTS) and land-use (London Plan) policy, and to refresh safeguarding 2010 / 2011 TfL and NR policy support MTS supports new rail capacity in SW-NE corridor. NR emphasise in South East RUS crowding on SWML and WAML could be reduced by Crossrail 2 Crossrail 2 – A potted history 26
- 27. Crossrail 2: Route options long list Tottenham Court Road Angel Charing Cross Piccadilly Circus Victoria Vauxhall King’s Cross Euston King’s Road Essex Road Stoke Newington Dalston Junction Hackney Central-Downs Finsbury Park Alexandra Palace Seven Sisters Clapham Junction City Thameslink Moorgate-Liverpool Street Cambridge Heath Balham Streatham Hill Clapham North Streatham Norbury Crystal Palace Beckhenham Junction Tooting Broadway Earlsfield Mitcham Town Centre Harringay Wandsworth Central Parsons Green East Putney Mitcham Junction Norwood Junction Thornton Heath Pond West Croydon East Croydon Waddon Wimbledon Sutton Epsom Downs Wallington Motspur Park Raynes Park Surbiton Roehampton Epsom Chessington South Wimbledon Park Kingston Shepperton Teddington Hampton Court Woking Walton-on-Thames Weybridge Wood Green Stevenage Hertford North Enfield Chase Tottenham Hale Enfield Town Edmonton Green Cheshunt Hertford East Broxbourne Chingford Walthamstow Central Homerton Leytonstone Stratford South Woodford Woodford Loughton Epping Barking Dagenham Dock Pitsea Tilbury Grays 2008 Safeguarded route Route option in existingrail corridor Route option in new rail corridor Some stations omitted for clarity Clapton Hornsey Hoxton Colliers Wood
- 28. Crossrail 2: Route options short-listing Long-list assessment Optimise New shortlist Metro Option Regional Option Safeguarded route (2008) Safeguarded Option
- 29. It will help address the UK’s productivity • The UK produces significantly less per hour worked than our main economic rivals. If we do not address this, national economic growth could stall and improvements to living standards could be held back • Cities offer a solution to this productivity challenge because they cluster activity together, improving efficiency • To do this and grow the economy, cities need access to a large workforce
- 30. It will help address the transport challenge • Despite the major investment programme underway, growth is putting pressure on the transport network and could stall long-term economic growth • Demand for National Rail services into Waterloo is set to increase by 40 per cent between today and 2043, and by a similar level across the Tube network • Severe crowding on the London and South East rail network could double by 2041 • Problem particularly severe in the morning peak
- 31. It will help address the housing challenge • London Plan seeks to meet a need of 49,000 new homes / year but up to 63,000 pa necessary to address backlog. • GLA SHLAA identifies sufficient land up to 2025 but shortfall thereafter (land for additional 500,000 homes needs to be identified) • ONS projections identify need for ~57,000 additional houses in non-London CR2 Borough’s up to 2037. • ONS projections identify need for ~1.5m new houses to be delivered in London and CR2 counties up to 2037 • Cumulative impact will require fundamental review of how cross boundary growth is planned for – supported by cross-border infrastructure schemes Cumulative London Plan housing targets versus identified capacity
- 32. It will help address the housing challenge • Too few homes are being built across the South East and future growth is threatened by a housing shortage • Part of the solution to building more homes is improving transport links to under-developed areas to make sites more attractive to developers Housing development in Woolwich, unlocked by Crossrail
- 33. Crossrail 2 seeks to address these challenges and secure long-term economic growth REGION-WIDE • Supporting new jobs • Improving journeys to, from & across the transport network • Maintain and enhance environmental quality • Accommodate housing growth THE NORTH EAST • Maximising housing growth and regeneration in opportunity areas like Upper Lea Valley and beyond CENTRAL LONDON • Intensify and grow London’s Central Activities Zone (CAZ) by increasing employment density • Reduce levels of congestion and crowding on travel services • Ensure adequate connectivity between HS2 and surrounding region THE SOUTH WEST • Reduce levels of congestion on key services and at key stations, particularly on South West Mainline
- 34. Enables the development of up to 200,000 new homes Supports up to 200,000 new jobs in London and the wider South East Supports 60,000+ construction sector and supply chain jobs across the UK Crossrail 2 - Economic benefits • Analysis by KPMG shows that it could add up to £102bn to the UK’s GVA, providing new tax revenues that would payback the Government’s investment • Could generate housing land value uplift (HVU) of £15bn
- 35. Economic benefits Crossrail 2’s supply chain would stretch around the UK Support 60,000 jobs around the country SMEs could benefit from more than £5bn spend Would support hundreds of apprenticeships
- 36. The UK has a productivity gap. Increased productivity occurs with increased employment densities Source: Volterra Source: Office of National Statistics (ONS) Productivity vs Employment Density. UK Cities, 2008-2012 The UK’s Productivity compared to G7 countries (GDP per hour worked)
- 37. Applying the principles of ‘TIEP’ shows that the Regional Scheme could deliver up to £102bn of net national GVA benefits. - Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) modelling supports this conclusion Summary net national present value GVA scenarios (£bn, 2011 prices, discounted to 2015) Source: National GVA Impacts, KPMG, 2015
- 38. • Transform travel across London and the wider South East, providing direct train services to destinations across the region • Provides new rail capacity for 270,000 people to access central London during peak periods, helping relieve crowding and congestion on the transport network Crossrail 2 – Transport benefits • Significantly improve step-free access across the rail network • Significant journey time benefits for a wide range of journeys
- 39. Transport benefits Crossrail 2 would transform travel across London and the wider South East, providing direct train services to destinations across the region. This would benefit places from Southampton to the Wash
- 40. The Crossrail 2 Growth Commission Crossrail 2 is not just about building a railway. The work of the Growth Commission is to: • Identify the ambitions of local authorities and key stakeholders along the route • Ensure that these ambitions are aligned with the design of the railway (eg. station entrances and exits facing the right way !) • Understand local infrastructure needs which could help unlock additional Crossrail 2 related development • Identify potential partnership and delivery arrangements • Advise on implications of growth ambitions on London Plan revisions • Report in Spring 2016
- 41. Of the Crossrail 2 regional scheme’s £28.7bn cost, a contribution of at least half from local sources remains feasible Source: Crossrail 2 Financial Review, PWC, 2015 11.6% 20.3% 16.9% 6.3% 1.4% 56.5% 12.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Operating surplus Business Rates Supplement Mayoral CIL Resale of Land and Property Council Tax Precept Total London Contribution National Rail Abstraction %oftotalfundingrequirement Sources of Funding for Crossrail 2 (as % of total funding requirement) Assumes RPI+0 to 2020 then RPI+0.5 Assume 50% real terms recovery of L&P cost Based on P80 cost (circa 47% contingency) Further work needed Assumes doubled rate and increased housebuildin g
- 42. Further funding options Potential incremental Stamp Duty receipts to exchequer of circa £20bn, including circa £5bn on additional homes unlocked (remainder on existing stock). Devolution of business rates recently announced offers potential to capture growth Options considered in PWC’s initial work but not progressed include: • Employment tax • Hotel bed levy • Greenfield development • Fares increases
- 43. 12% 20% 17% 6% 1% 56% 84% 156% 212% 13% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Operating surplus Business Rates Supplement Mayoral CIL Resale of Land and Property Council Tax Precept Total (existing mechanisms) Lower bound exchequer impact Upper bound exchequer impact Total (incl exchequer impact) National Rail Abstraction %oftotalfundingrequirement Sources of Funding for Crossrail 2 (as % of total funding requirement) By integrating the strategic and financial cases, the scheme more than covers its costs Direct London contribution Indirect London contribution
- 44. A programme for delivery: challenging but achievable – provided there is a clear commitment and funding to develop the scheme 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 5-6 Year Development Phase 10-12 Year Delivery Phase Operations Key milestones: •Public consultation – Autumn 2015 •National Infrastructure Commission – March 2016 •Submit powers application – 2017/18 •Start construction – 2020/21 •First Crossrail 2 service – 2030/31