Recent energy efficiency trends in the EU

Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiency
organised by Leonardo ENERGY
November 30th, 2021
Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries – Enerdata
with Estelle Payan - Enerdata
Recent energy efficiency
trends in the EU

▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE-MURE project,
that is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission.
The project is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and
Fraunhofer-ISI. www.odyssee-mure.eu
▪ The webinar relies on data and energy efficiency indicators prepared in the
framework of the project and disseminated in a database, called
ODYSSEE, and in 5 data tools.
▪ ODYSSEE covers 31 countries*. It is updated up to 2019 from national
sources and completed by Enerdata with early estimates for 2020**.
▪ EU corresponds to EU27 (i.e. without the UK)
2
* 27 EU Member States + UK, Norway, Serbia and Switzerland
** See methodology at https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/other/early-estimates-
methodology.html
Recent EE trends in EU
About

Outline
▪ Energy consumption trends
▪ Energy efficiency trends by end-use
▪ Energy efficiency trends by sector
▪ What can we say on energy efficiency in 2020?
▪ Conclusions
3

Energy consumption trends

• Relative stability of EU total
energy supply between 2014
and 2019, although GDP
increased by 2.2%/year with
the return to economic
growth.
• Drop by 6% of total energy
supply in 2020.
• Primary consumption is
estimated to be 6% under
the EU target for 2020.
• The primary energy intensity
has decreased slightly more
rapidly over 2014-2019
(2%/yr), than over 2007-
2014 (+0.35 pts). Very slow
reduction in 2020.
Total energy supply and intensity vs GDP
Source: ODYSSEE, based on Eurostat; 2020: Enerdata estimates.
Data at normal climate. 5
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2000=100
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2020
%/year
GDP Total energy supply Intensity

• Between 2014 and 2019, total energy supply increased less than final
consumption: 17 Mtoe compared to 36 Mtoe.
• This lower progression was explained by changes in the power mix, with:
• A higher share of renewables (+4 pts) and a lower share of nuclear (-2 pts)
and thermal (-2 pts) that reduced total energy supply increase by 18 Mtoe.
• An improved efficiency of thermal generation (+2.2 pts) with a shift from coal
to gas, which contributed to a reduction of 19 Mtoe.
• In 2020, a similar phenomenon occurred: total energy supply decreased more
than final consumption because of an increased penetration of solar and wind (+4
pts).
6
Drivers of total energy supply variation over 2014-2019
Total energy supply vs final consumption
Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool
1396
+ 36
+ 9
- 19
- 18
+ 7
+ 2
- 1
1412
1350
1400
1450
2014 Var. final
cons.
Electricity
penetration
Efficiency
thermal
power
plants
Power mix Var.
ambient
heat
Other
transf.
Non energy
uses
2019
Mtoe

• Final energy consumption grew again between 2014 and 2019 with the economic
rebound (+0.7%/yr), in sharp contrast with total energy supply trends.
• Electricity consumption growth was 3 times slower (0.6%/yr) than before the
financial crisis.
• Transport was the most dynamic sector over 2014-2019 and was back to the
trend before 2007 (1.4%/yr).
• Industry had the lowest progression (0.3%/yr).
Recent EE trends in EU 7
Total Electricity
Final energy consumption trends until 2019
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
%/year
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
Households and services at normal climate. *Services include non-specified.
Source: ODYSSEE

• Final consumption dropped by 5.6% in 2020 and electricity consumption by
4.5%.
• Transport was the most impacted sector, due to lock down and travel restrictions
(-11%).
• Services registered the highest decrease in electricity consumption (-7%) due to
massive teleworking and temporary closure of many public-access
establishments (shops, bars, restaurants, etc.).
• Households was the only sector consumption with an increase in consumption
with people staying longer at home (+1.4% for total, +1.9% for electricity).
Source: Enerdata estimates. International aviation excluded. Households and services at normal climate.
Total Electricity
Impact of 2020 crisis on energy consumption
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
%/year

Energy efficiency trends
by end-use

10
How is measured energy efficiency progress by
end-use in ODYSSEE?
• Energy efficiency progress is measured by end-use or sub sector
with various indicators of specific consumption measured in
physical units selected to be as as close as possible to energy
efficiency:
• For transport in l/100 km or koe/pkm for cars, in l/100 km and
koe/tkm for trucks, etc.
• For households in toe/m2 for heating, in kWh/appliance for
large appliances, in toe/dwelling for cooking or water heating,
etc.
• For industry in toe/ton for energy intensive products (steel,
cement, pulp and paper), in toe/IPI for other branches.
• Trends observed for three end–uses will be presented now: cars,
household space heating and large appliances.
• More indicators can be found in the “key indicator tool” at
https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html

Energy efficiency trends of new cars
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
l/100km
2000 2014 2019
• Reduction in the specific consumption of new diesel and gasoline cars
until 2014 (1.8%/yr).
• Reverse trend since then in most countries and net slowdown in the
others, due to two main factors: a decrease in diesel share (-20 pts at
EU level) and a growing share of SUV (+ 15 pts).
• Much lower efficiency progress for the car stock, in koe/pkm (0.3%/yr),
for several reasons: biofuels, occupancy rate and real driving conditions
(actual l/100 km higher than test values).
Source: ODYSSEE, based on test specific emissions from EEA
Specific consumption of new cars (test values)

Energy efficiency of household heating?
12
• The specific consumption per m2 for households heating has decreased rapidly in
almost all countries since 2000 (-1.7%/year on average in the EU).
• This trend has significantly slowed down since 2014 at EU level (-0.6%/yr vs -
2.1%/yr before), and in several large countries (e.g. France, Netherlands), with
even a reversal in Germany; this may come from several factors:
• Less new construction (-30% since financial crisis), which only represents
each year 0.9% of the stock (i.e. only 9% of new stock after 10 years);
• Quality of renovations and construction
• Slower diffusion of efficient heating modes (condensing boiler)**
• Rebound effect?
Unit consumption per m2 for space heating for largest consumers*
Source: ODYSSEE based on national data
* Countries representing 75% of the EU heating consumption of households (60% for the 4 largest).
** Penetration of efficient heating modes at https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/market-diffusion.html
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
%/year
2000-2014
2014-2019

13
Energy efficiency trends: large households
appliances
• The specific consumption of large appliances (measured in kWh per appliance)
has decreased steadily since 1990 by the labelling and eco-design regulations.
• Efficiency gains are above 40% (i.e. ~2%/year) for refrigerators, washing
machines, dish washers and dryers; for freezers, gains are lower, around 37%.
Source: ODYSSEE, based on national data
Specific energy consumption of large appliances (EU average)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1990=100
Refrigerators Freezers Washing machines Dishwashers Dryers

Overall energy efficiency trends
and savings by sector

15
How is measured energy efficiency progress by
sector in ODYSSEE?
• From the various energy efficiency indicators of specific consumption
by end–use we obtain different trends; for instance, for households
the EU: 2%/year for refrigerators, 1.7%/year for space heating,
0.5%/year for water heating etc….
• The question is what has been the overall energy efficiency progress at
sector level?
• This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”, that
summarised the trend by sector and for all final consumers in
ODYSSEE.

How is calculated ODEX?
• ODEX is calculated:
o First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption by
end-use (or sub-sector), as an index of variation;
o Then by calculating an average index for the sector weighted by
the share of each end-use (or sub-sector) in the sector’s energy
consumption.
• ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of ODEX is presently
calculated on the basis of up to 40 sub-sectors (8 modes in transport, 11
end-uses for households, 14 branches in industry, 6 branches in
services).
• The use of index of variation by end-use (or sub-sector) enable to
mix specific consumption indicators expressed in different physical
units so as to be as close as possible to energy efficiency (e.g. for
household: toe/m2 for heating, kWh/dwelling for lighting, kWh/appliance
for appliances and cooling, toe/household for water heating and cooking).
16
*For more information on ODEX: https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/archives/odex-
indicators-database-definition.html

▪ The energy efficiency progress of final consumers, as measured with ODEX, has
slowed down from 1.2%/yr over 2000- 2014 to 0.7%/yr since 2014.
▪ Households is the sector with the greatest progress since 2000, however with
improvements twice lower since 2014.
▪ Strong slow down in industry since 2007 (0.8%/yr; down from 1.6%/yr before).
▪ Lowest improvement in transport, with also a progress twice lower since 2014
(0.4%/yr) than over 2007-2014, because of the slower progress for cars.
▪ Larger gains for services since 2010 (1%/yr for services over 2014-2019).
Energy efficiency improvements for final consumers (EU)
17
Declining progress in most sectors since 2014
Source: ODYSSEE, measured with ODEX (Odyssee Energy Efficiency Index).
ODEX=81.3 in 2019 ➔ 18.7% energy efficiency improvement since 2000
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2000=100
Industry
Transport
Households
Services
Total

• Energy savings represented 21% of final energy consumption in 2019:
without savings final consumption would have been 21% higher.
• Since 2014, these savings have been twice lower for transport and
households.
• Households were overrepresented, with a share of total savings 50%
higher than their share in consumption (44% vs 27%) while savings in
transport were twice lower than their share in consumption (15% vs
31%). This is explained by the high number of measures for households.
% in energy savings
% in final consumption
18
Energy savings vs. consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mtoe
Industry Transport Households Services
28%
31%
27%
14%
31
%
15
%
44
%
10
%
Source: ODYSSEE; cumulated annual energy savings since 2000;
https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/energy-saving.html

19
Drivers of final energy consumption variation
• Between 2014 and 2019, final consumption increased by 36 Mtoe.
• The economic and demographic growth, as well as increase in equipment
ownership (cars, appliances) and dwellings’ size), the “activity” effect, contributed
to raise final consumption by 70 Mtoe.
• Energy savings have offset around half of this activity effect by reducing
consumption by 37 Mtoe.
• Structural effects (i.e. changes in industry structure) have also decreased
consumption (by 6 Mtoe), which is offset by a colder climate in 2019 than in 2014.
35,6
70,2
-6,1
-36,5
6,2
1,8
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Mtoe
Var. cons. final
Activity
Structure
Energy savings
Climate
Other
Final consumption at real climate.
Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool

What can we say on energy
efficiency in 2020?

Energy efficiency in a period of recession: some
reminders
• In general energy efficiency deteriorates in periods of deep
recession in productive sectors (industry, services and freight
transport): indeed, energy consumption does not follow the
reduction in economic activities because of lower use of industrial
capacities, or lower load factor for trucks, leading to an increase of
indicators of specific consumption and a lower “efficiency”, not from
a technical viewpoint but from an operational viewpoint.
• The same applied in 2020 for public passenger transport (train,
metro, bus), as lock down and sanitary measures have led to a
sharp reduction in traffic and load factors, but less in industry and
freight transport that were less affected than for instance in the
2009 recession.

Case of passenger transport in France
• In France, for instance, preliminary detailed statistics, illustrate this
deterioration of energy efficiency of passenger transport from an
operational viewpoint : the unit consumption per pkm has increased by
44% for buses and 67% for rail, due to the very low load factors
-70 %
-60 %
-50 %
-40 %
-30 %
-20 %
-10 %
0 %
Variation of passenger traffic
(France, 2020)
Source: Compte des transports, Bilan circulation, own estimates (preliminary)
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
Bus Train
Variation of unit consumption
(koe/pkm) (France, 2020)

What can we say about energy efficiency in 2020?
• Energy efficiency has continued to improve as new equipment (cars,
appliances, etc.) sold in 2020 or new buildings continued to be more
efficient than in 2019 because of existing regulations.
• In addition, energy efficiency is also strongly linked to existing policy
measures (e.g support to retrofitting of buildings), which means that it
is less sensitive to a crisis.
• For instance, renovation of social buildings jumped in 2020 in Denmark
(x4) and France (+60%) and increased slightly in Sweden, Germany,
Finland and Austria*.
• What has changed however is the volume of new equipment and
buildings in 2020 (car sales have decreased by 25%, new construction
by 20%), which mechanically resulted in lower overall energy efficiency
gains for new equipment and buildings.
*Source: France: ANAH; other countries: State of housing in EU 2021;
Housing Europe (association of social housing)

Energy efficiency of new thermal cars improved in 2020
• The specific consumption of new diesel and gasoline cars has decreased again
in 2020 at EU level (-5%) and in most countries, and quite significantly in some
of them. This is mainly due to a doubling of the share of hybrid thermal cars
(from 6 to 12% of new registrations).
• This marks a net reversal compared to the trend 2014-2019, when this specific
consumption increased at EU level (+0,4%/yr) and in most countries.
*Source: ODYSSEE from EEA data; only countries with data since 2000 are shown.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
%/year
2000-2014 2014-2019 2019-2020
17%
Test-cycle values for diesel and gasoline cars (l/100 km)*

According to our first estimates, the efficiency of final consumers
increased by around 0.5% in 2020 (compared to 0.7%/yr over 2014-
2019), of which 0.4% for industry and 0.6% for households and
transport.
Energy efficiency improvements for final consumers (EU)
25
Energy efficiency slowed down again in 2020
according to preliminary estimates
Source: Enerdata preliminary estimates based on “Early estimates” from ODYSSEE
https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/other/early-estimates-methodology.html
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2000=100
Industry
Transport
Households
Services
Total

First estimates of the drivers of final consumption
variation in 2020 at EU level
Drivers of final consumption variation between 2019 and 2020
• In 2020, final consumption decreased by 62 Mtoe.
• Almost all of this decrease is due to the contraction of activity related to the
COVID-19 pandemic.
• Energy savings contributed to a reduction in consumption of 8 Mtoe.
-62
-59
8
-8 -9
6
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Mtoe
Var. cons. final
Activity
Structure
Energy savings
Climate
Other

First estimates of the drivers of transport
consumption variation at EU level
• In 2020, transport consumption decreased by 33 Mtoe, which is mostly
due to the drop in traffic, especially passenger traffic, which in a normal
year represent around 60% of the consumption .
• Energy savings is estimated to have contributed to a reduction in
consumption of 4.5 Mtoe.
• “Others” factor correspond mainly to increase in specific consumption per
unit of traffic due to the reduction in the rate of occupancy in public
transport .
Drivers of transport consumption variation between 2019 and 2020
-32,5 -33,2
0,6
-4,5
4,5
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Mtoe
Var. cons.
Activity
Modal shift
Energy savings
Other

Conclusions
• Over 2014-2019, the growing share of renewables
and natural gas in the power mix has offset part of
the increase in final consumption.
• Energy efficiency improvement of final consumers
has been 40% slower since 2014.
• Over 2014-2019, energy savings offset half of the
effect of economic growth.
• Almost all of the sharp decrease in consumption in
2020 is due to the contraction of activity related to
the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The efficiency of final consumers increased by
around 0.5% in 2020: energy savings had a
marginal effect in the reduction of consumption.
28

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Thank you for your
attention !
Contact:
About Enerdata:
Enerdata is an energy
intelligence and consulting
company established in 1991.
Our experts will help you tackle
key energy and climate issues
and make sound strategic and
business decisions.
We provide research, solutions,
consulting and training to key
energy players worldwide.
Bruno Lapillonne,
Scientific director
bruno.lapillonne@enerdata.net
Laura Sudries,
Energy efficiency project manager
laura.sudries@enerdata.net
29

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