Graciela L Kaminsky
The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Department Member
- I am a Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University and a Faculty Research Assoc... moreI am a Professor of Economics and International Affairs at George Washington University and a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. My research focuses on contagion, currency and financial crises, exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policies, international capital flows, and sovereign debt crises. I am currently working on a project on International Borrowing Cycles starting in the early 1800s. I have constructed a unique granular database on international capital flows, which includes every bond, loan, and share issued in international capital markets over two hundred years. This database allows me to solve important puzzles in international macroeconomics, such as, what has triggered the waves of sovereign debt crises around the world for hundreds of years as well as what the role of monetary policy in the financial center is on booms and busts in the periphery.edit
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Research Interests: Globalization, Stock Market, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Emerging Market, and 11 moreSocial Science Research Network, Developing Country, Contagion, Financial Market, Systemic Risk, Interest Rate, Gold Prices and Stock Market, Financial Globalization, Asset Market, Financial Fragility, and Stock market prices
... 6See Hamilton (1988) or Kaminsky (1988) for a description of the estimation procedure. ... Similarly, the model fore-casts do not reproduce the bias of the sur-veys. For example, the six-month mean bias using The Economist survey data... more
... 6See Hamilton (1988) or Kaminsky (1988) for a description of the estimation procedure. ... Similarly, the model fore-casts do not reproduce the bias of the sur-veys. For example, the six-month mean bias using The Economist survey data during June 1981-September 1984 ...
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Research Interests: Economics, Monetary Economics, Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Monetary Policy, and 11 moreDeveloping Country, Foreign Exchange, Psychological Intervention, Sterilization, Exchange rate, Currency, Inflation Targeting, Central Bank, Guidance and Counseling Intervention Programs, Monetary Base, and Presumption
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During the 1970s and early 1980s, Spain suffered high rates of inflation but inflation declined and by 1997 inflation had fallen to approximately 2 percent. To fight inflation, Spain implemented austere monetary programs, joined the EMS... more
During the 1970s and early 1980s, Spain suffered high rates of inflation but inflation declined and by 1997 inflation had fallen to approximately 2 percent. To fight inflation, Spain implemented austere monetary programs, joined the EMS in 1989, enacted central bank autonomy in 1994, and introduced inflation targets in January 1995. Certainly, these and other policies are in part responsible
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This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the efficiency of commodity futures markets. Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature, there is no general consensus on whether or not the markets are efficient. The... more
This paper undertakes an econometric investigation into the efficiency of commodity futures markets. Despite a considerable amount of empirical literature, there is no general consensus on whether or not the markets are efficient. The results of this study suggest that for certain commodities expected excess returns to futures speculation are non-zero, however, it is argued that these results do not necessarily imply that markets are inefficient, or that agents do not act rationally. The implications of the study for the cost of using the futures markets for hedging, and for the power of futures prices to forecast future spot prices, are also noted.
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Jose Maria Guido, President of the Senate during the Frondizi administration, took over the presidency of the country under spectacular circumstances. He will not be considered by history as a ‘great’ President. With the passage of time,... more
Jose Maria Guido, President of the Senate during the Frondizi administration, took over the presidency of the country under spectacular circumstances. He will not be considered by history as a ‘great’ President. With the passage of time, however, his image has improved; the perspective that the span of years has given has brought about a better understanding of his administration in the light of the inherited and prevailing conditions.
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Abstract: A model that contains no costs to changing prices but in which prices do not respond to nominal shocks is presented. In models that do not feature superneutrality of money flexible price equilibria will allow certain types of... more
Abstract: A model that contains no costs to changing prices but in which prices do not respond to nominal shocks is presented. In models that do not feature superneutrality of money flexible price equilibria will allow certain types of monetary shocks to affect the real economy. ...