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Page 1. Other Books in Review Poverty Monitoring: An International Concern. Edited by Rolph van der Hoeven and Richard Anker. New York: St.... more
Page 1. Other Books in Review Poverty Monitoring: An International Concern. Edited by Rolph van der Hoeven and Richard Anker. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994. xx + 224 pages. Cloth $65.00. The thematic focus of this ...
A central issue in the analysis of military regimes in Latin America is their policy impact. How successful are military governments in promoting economic development? How do their policies and performances compare with those of civilian... more
A central issue in the analysis of military regimes in Latin America is their policy impact. How successful are military governments in promoting economic development? How do their policies and performances compare with those of civilian governments? The sheer volume of research on the causes of military takeovers in Latin America implies that regime changes have important consequences. Yet to date we are far from having satisfactory answers to the questions posed above. As a recent study of public policy in Latin America noted, “If students of Latin American politics were to inventory verified propositions regarding the performance of Latin American regimes, the resulting list might not exceed zero” (Ames and Goff 1975, p. 175).
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This study explores variations in macroeconomic policy and performance in contemporary Latin America on the basis of a theoretical model that emphasizes the complex interplay of partisan control of the government, labor strength, and... more
This study explores variations in macroeconomic policy and performance in contemporary Latin America on the basis of a theoretical model that emphasizes the complex interplay of partisan control of the government, labor strength, and electoral competition. The plausibility of the model is assessed on the basis of a cross-national time series analysis of economic policy choice and performance in nineteen nations. Contrary to the view that internationalization of the world economy leaves limited room for domestic actors and institutions to influence public policy, the findings suggest that macroeconomic performance in contemporary Latin America reflects eminently political processes of policy formation shaped by partisanship, electoral competition, and union strength. The study thereby points to the broader relevance of the literature on the political economy of the advanced industrial democracies, which has emphasized the impact of domestic political institutions, particularly politi...
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... The overthrow of President Hipdlito Irigoyen in Argentina termi-Karen L. Remmer is Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, and Associate Editor, Latin American Research Review. 63 Page 92. 64 DEBT AND... more
... The overthrow of President Hipdlito Irigoyen in Argentina termi-Karen L. Remmer is Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, and Associate Editor, Latin American Research Review. 63 Page 92. 64 DEBT AND TRANSFIGURATION? ...
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... Focusing primarily upon short-term processes of regime transition, the approach resolves the perennial tension between generalization and specificity squarely in favor of the latter. ... This new emphasis upon the uncertainty of Latin... more
... Focusing primarily upon short-term processes of regime transition, the approach resolves the perennial tension between generalization and specificity squarely in favor of the latter. ... This new emphasis upon the uncertainty of Latin social reality is a predictable ...
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This article attempts to bring the politics of scale back into the study of comparative politics. Explicitly focusing on the question of electoral turnout in the less industrialized world, it explores the impact of variations in community... more
This article attempts to bring the politics of scale back into the study of comparative politics. Explicitly focusing on the question of electoral turnout in the less industrialized world, it explores the impact of variations in community size relative to other influences on citizen participation. The findings, which draw on both aggregate and individual-level data at the subnational level of analysis, offer considerable evidence that electoral participation declines with community size, but for reasons largely neglected by most prior literature on electoral turnout. The central theoretical conclusion is that future comparative research needs to address the role of political scale more directly and systematically.
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In recent years no country in Latin America has played a more important role in raising questions about the goals and instruments of U.S. foreign policy than Chile. The revelations of U.S. involvement in the overthrow of the Allende... more
In recent years no country in Latin America has played a more important role in raising questions about the goals and instruments of U.S. foreign policy than Chile. The revelations of U.S. involvement in the overthrow of the Allende government opened the door to far-reaching criticisms of the activities of U.S. intelligence agencies and helped generate the Carter administration's human rights policy. Today this policy is facing one of its sternest tests in Chile.
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In recent years no country in Latin America has played a more important role in raising questions about the goals and instruments of U.S. foreign policy than Chile. The revelations of U.S. involvement in the overthrow of the Allende... more
In recent years no country in Latin America has played a more important role in raising questions about the goals and instruments of U.S. foreign policy than Chile. The revelations of U.S. involvement in the overthrow of the Allende government opened the door to far-reaching criticisms of the activities of U.S. intelligence agencies and helped generate the Carter administration's human rights policy. Today this policy is facing one of its sternest tests in Chile.
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With the publication in 1973 of Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics, Guillermo O'Donnell initiated a new phase in the debate over the relationship between social change and politics in... more
With the publication in 1973 of Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics, Guillermo O'Donnell initiated a new phase in the debate over the relationship between social change and politics in Latin America. In contrast to most of the political development literature of the 1950s and 1960s, O'Donnell argued that social and economic modernization in the context of delayed development is more likely to lead to authoritarianism than democracy. His analysis focused on the emergence of military regimes in Argentina and Brazil in the middle 1960s—regimes that he labeled “bureaucratic-authoritarian” to distinguish them from oligarchical and populist forms of authoritarian rule found in less modernized countries. O'Donnell's suggestion that an “elective affinity” exists between higher levels of modernization and the rise of bureaucratic-authoritarianism in South America anticipated the military takeovers of the 1970s in Chile, Uruguay,...
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This study analyzes variations in the incidence of state involvement in investment treaty arbitration in Latin America and the Caribbean over the 1987–2014 period. Its main contributions are fourfold. First, by focusing on the balance of... more
This study analyzes variations in the incidence of state involvement in investment treaty arbitration in Latin America and the Caribbean over the 1987–2014 period. Its main contributions are fourfold. First, by focusing on the balance of incentives and opportunities facing political leaders and foreign investors, the study establishes a new basis for understanding the reasons actors opt for the risks and uncertainties of international arbitration instead of resolving international investment disputes via alternative means. Second, by restricting the focus of research to the Latin American region, the study is able to move beyond the analysis of relatively time-invariant structural and institutional conditions and crude indicators to address the role played by the preferences of political actors. Third, by disaggregating disputes by sector of investment, the analysis documents the variable role of ideology and electoral incentives in investment treaty arbitration. Finally, by underli...
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S INCE I979, the politics of Latin America have been transformed by the longest and deepest wave of democratization in the region's history. At the same time, the continent has been confronting its most serious economic crisis since... more
S INCE I979, the politics of Latin America have been transformed by the longest and deepest wave of democratization in the region's history. At the same time, the continent has been confronting its most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. The confluence of these two trends has raised serious concerns about the future of democratic governance in the region.' The prevailing assumption is not merely that economic decline undercuts prospects for democratic consolidation. Because of their vulnerability to popular political pressures, democraciesparticularly new democracies-are also seen as incapable of mounting effective policy responses to critical economic challenges. In this essay, the relationship between democracy and economic crisis is examined with specific reference to the question of policy response. Are democracies less likely than other regimes to address economic crises with appropriate policies? Do they tend to intensify rather than ameliorate economi...
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Abstract Why do voters shift partisan allegiances between elections and/or within electoral cycles? Drawing on panel survey data, this study is designed to enhance our understanding of shifting partisan preferences byexploring vote... more
Abstract Why do voters shift partisan allegiances between elections and/or within electoral cycles? Drawing on panel survey data, this study is designed to enhance our understanding of shifting partisan preferences byexploring vote switching and split-ticket voting inthe Latin American context. Its main finding and contribution to the existing literature on stability and change in partisan preferences centers around the importance of candidate viability relative to party identification and other individual characteristics shaping vote choice.
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Under what conditions are countries most (least) likely to become involved in international investment disputes? Building on the premise that this question cannot be addressed without reference to the incentives facing political leaders,... more
Under what conditions are countries most (least) likely to become involved in international investment disputes? Building on the premise that this question cannot be addressed without reference to the incentives facing political leaders, this study develops a theory emphasizing the domestic factors that lead governments to opt for short-term political gains at the risk of being drawn into potentially costly processes of international dispute arbitration. The theory is assessed on the basis of an original database covering the full set of known treaty-based disputes registered at international arbitral tribunals over the 1987-2011 period. After controlling for variations in exposure to the risks of investment disputes, the results suggest that the willingness of leaders to discount the potential costs of investor-state dispute arbitration varies with leadership turnover, economic conditions, and domestic political institutions, with the relationship between political democracy and the probability of investment dispute involvement assuming a curvilinear form.
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... propositions re-garding the performance of Latin American regimes, the resulting list might not exceed zero" (Ames and Goff 1975, p. 175 ... development (O'Donnell 1973); the cohesiveness, effi-ciency, and... more
... propositions re-garding the performance of Latin American regimes, the resulting list might not exceed zero" (Ames and Goff 1975, p. 175 ... development (O'Donnell 1973); the cohesiveness, effi-ciency, and coercive capability of the military as a political institution (Fidel 1975, pp. ...
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The debt crisis has raised serious concerns about the future of democratic governance in Latin America. The prevailing assumption is not merely that economic decline undercuts prospects for democratic consolidation; because of their... more
The debt crisis has raised serious concerns about the future of democratic governance in Latin America. The prevailing assumption is not merely that economic decline undercuts prospects for democratic consolidation; because of their vulnerability to popular political pressures, democracies—particularly new democracies—have been seen as incapable of mounting effective policy responses to critical economic challenges. A comparative study of policy outcomes in Latin America since the outbreak of the debt crisis challenges this assumption. If we control for the magnitude of the debt burden at the outbreak of the crisis, no statistically significant differences emerge between democratic and authoritarian regimes, or between new democracies and more established regimes. The findings suggest that the conventional wisdom about democracy and economic crisis exaggerates the relationship between political regime characteristics and policy choice, and fundamentally misconstrues the strengths an...
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Research on the less industrialized regions of the world has undergone major changes in terms of theoretical rigor, methodological sophistication, and the diversification of analytical approaches since the publication of Samuel P.... more
Research on the less industrialized regions of the world has undergone major changes in terms of theoretical rigor, methodological sophistication, and the diversification of analytical approaches since the publication of Samuel P. Huntingdon's essay, “Political Development and Political Decay,” inWorld Politicsin 1965. Yet more than three decades later, comparativists are rediscovering political institutions, highlighting the originality of Huntington's scholarly contribution. The resurgence of institutional analysis has redirected attention to the potential variability of political outcomes in the face of sweeping global currents, generated important theoretical insights, and created new bases for dialogue across disparate research traditions. Nevertheless, the horizons of institutional research need to be broadened to address the challenges posed by international influences, two-way interactions between politics and society, and institutional fluidity.
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... and sociologists have all made significant contributions to the study of patronage politics (Eisenstadt and Roniger 1984; Gay 1994; Graziano 1973, 1976; Lemarchand 1972; Lemarchand and Legg 1972; Powell 1970; Roniger and Gunes-Ayata... more
... and sociologists have all made significant contributions to the study of patronage politics (Eisenstadt and Roniger 1984; Gay 1994; Graziano 1973, 1976; Lemarchand 1972; Lemarchand and Legg 1972; Powell 1970; Roniger and Gunes-Ayata 1994; Scott 1969, 1972; Shefter ...
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Abstract What political conditions facilitate market-oriented reform? Prior research suggests that neoliberal policies are inherently unpopular, politically hazardous, and consequently dependent upon the existence of strong and relative... more
Abstract What political conditions facilitate market-oriented reform? Prior research suggests that neoliberal policies are inherently unpopular, politically hazardous, and consequently dependent upon the existence of strong and relative autonomous governments. This study ...
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T he study of political development in Latin America has undergone fundamental changes in recent years. Whereas analysis was once focused on general processes of change and couched in the language of social mobilization, attention is... more
T he study of political development in Latin America has undergone fundamental changes in recent years. Whereas analysis was once focused on general processes of change and couched in the language of social mobilization, attention is increasingly being directed to the political economy of dependent development. Although this is a promising trend, to date the burgeoning literature on dependency has raised at least as many questions as it has answered. Even with regard to reasonably well-documented economic relationships, few studies have attempted to spell out in any detail the political consequences of dependency. This study will concentrate on only one of the many issues raised by the new approach: Does external economic dependence give rise to a distinctive pattern of elite dominance? The importance of this question for understanding divergent patterns of political development has been underlined by Barrington Moore's (1966) comparative study of modernization. Analyzing the historical experience of a variety of nations, Moore has provided us with some generalizations about the likely consequences of different types of elite relationships and the circumstances under which they are likely to emerge. It is hoped that by exploring the impact of external economic dependence on the structure of political conflict and public policy in Chile and Argentina it will be possible to shed some further light on this question. Both Chile and Argentina are what Moore describes as "lesser states": like most countries in the world they have been strongly influenced by external economic, social, political, military, and cultural forces; but their historical experience is no less interesting from a theoretical perspective than that of the international giants and/or innovators. Because their pattern of development has not conformed to
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Building on the growing body of research on political institutions, this article explores the causes of electoral reform, with specific reference to Latin America. What factors account for the extensive array of electoral reforms adopted... more
Building on the growing body of research on political institutions, this article explores the causes of electoral reform, with specific reference to Latin America. What factors account for the extensive array of electoral reforms adopted in the region since the return to democracy? How are shifting patterns of political representation related to institutional change? In addressing these questions, I develop an account of electoral reform that places shifting partisan political fortunes at the center of analysis and show that changes in the rules of the electoral game tend to reflect the political self-interest of dominant political parties as defined in relation to mounting electoral uncertainty. The evidence regarding the impact of electoral reforms on party system change is less consistent with the expectations derived from the comparative institutional literature. Over the past two decades, party system change in Latin America has generated institutional change more predictably t...
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This study explores variations in macroeconomic policy and performance in contemporary Latin America on the basis of a theoretical model that emphasizes the complex interplay of partisan control of the government, labor strength, and... more
This study explores variations in macroeconomic policy and performance in contemporary Latin America on the basis of a theoretical model that emphasizes the complex interplay of partisan control of the government, labor strength, and electoral competition. The plausibility of the model is assessed on the basis of a cross-national time series analysis of economic policy choice and performance in nineteen nations. Contrary to the view that internationalization of the world economy leaves limited room for domestic actors and institutions to influence public policy, the findings suggest that macroeconomic performance in contemporary Latin America reflects eminently political processes of policy formation shaped by partisanship, electoral competition, and union strength. The study thereby points to the broader relevance of the literature on the political economy of the advanced industrial democracies, which has emphasized the impact of domestic political institutions, particularly politi...
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... in July 1974 preserved the predominance of the military, but, as indicated by Table 1, the situation began to change in 1975. ... with the passage of Decree Law 1639 at the end of 1976, retirement norms have been repeatedly violated,... more
... in July 1974 preserved the predominance of the military, but, as indicated by Table 1, the situation began to change in 1975. ... with the passage of Decree Law 1639 at the end of 1976, retirement norms have been repeatedly violated, creating a corps of superannuated generals ...
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During the late 1970s authoritarian rule in Latin America began to give way to processes of political liberalization and democratization. The debt crisis of the early 1980s accelerated this trend. Under the weight of crippling external... more
During the late 1970s authoritarian rule in Latin America began to give way to processes of political liberalization and democratization. The debt crisis of the early 1980s accelerated this trend. Under the weight of crippling external financial obligations, the region slid into its worst ...
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Recent literature emphasizes the fragility of newly emerging democracies and the importance of economic performance to their survival. The analysis reevaluates this conventional wisdom and tests a theoretical alternative that takes into... more
Recent literature emphasizes the fragility of newly emerging democracies and the importance of economic performance to their survival. The analysis reevaluates this conventional wisdom and tests a theoretical alternative that takes into account the differential strengths and weaknesses of democracy and authoritarianism as well as institutional variations among democratic regimes. South American data for the post-1944 period form the empirical basis for the study.
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Over the past decade the contours of political party competition in Latin America have been dramatically altered by an upsurge of support for leftist–populist parties and the related weakening of established parties on the center and... more
Over the past decade the contours of political party competition in Latin America have been dramatically altered by an upsurge of support for leftist–populist parties and the related weakening of established parties on the center and right end of the political spectrum. Drawing on both aggregate and individual-level evidence, this article explores the roots of this swing of the political pendulum. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, which attributes the rising “pink tide” to citizen dissatisfaction with market-oriented policies, economic performance, and/or social inequality, the analysis focuses on the role played by improving external economic conditions during the early 2000s, which relaxed the preexisting constraints on policy choice, enhanced the credibility of anti–status quo political actors, and created new opportunities for the pursuit of statist, nationalist, and redistributive political projects and associated challenges to U.S. hegemony. Consistent with this line of the...
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To what extent does public support for subnational officials fluctuate in response to local rather than national performance? Are the policy failures of subnational officials reliably punished by voters? Drawing upon both individual and... more
To what extent does public support for subnational officials fluctuate in response to local rather than national performance? Are the policy failures of subnational officials reliably punished by voters? Drawing upon both individual and aggregate level data, this article attempts to shed new light on these questions about the politics of decentralization by exploring electoral outcomes and public opinion at the subnational level in Argentina. Consistent with referendum voting models, this analysis suggests that the fate of candidates in both national and subnational elections is shaped by the performance of the incumbent presidential administration. Moreover, to the extent that subnational performance has an electoral impact, voters do not necessarily respond in ways that enhance electoral accountability. Voters not only blame and reward subnational officials for national performance, but also attribute responsibility for subnational performance to national authorities. The implicat...
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... the Nicaraguan elections of 1936, in which General Anastasio Somoza Garcia was credited with 79.3 percent of the vote in a fraudulent tally, established the basis for the Somoza dictatorship of the 1936-79 period.36 Elections also... more
... the Nicaraguan elections of 1936, in which General Anastasio Somoza Garcia was credited with 79.3 percent of the vote in a fraudulent tally, established the basis for the Somoza dictatorship of the 1936-79 period.36 Elections also launched 24 years of conservative military ...
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Research on the political implications of economic conditions is separated into two relatively distinct bodies of literature. I bridge the theoretical gap between them by examining the effects of economic crisis on electoral outcomes in... more
Research on the political implications of economic conditions is separated into two relatively distinct bodies of literature. I bridge the theoretical gap between them by examining the effects of economic crisis on electoral outcomes in Latin America from 1982 to 1990. An analysis of 21 competitive elections indicates that crisis conditions undermine support for incumbents and provoke high levels of electoral volatility but without necessarily fostering the growth of political extremism or the exhaustion of elite consensus associated with the breakdown of democracy. The results also suggest that the relationship between economic conditions and electoral instability is mediated by party system structure rather than democratic age. Paradoxically, the findings buttress prior research on electoral outcomes in the comparatively stable and homogeneous Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations while undercutting theoretical frameworks elaborated with specific ref...
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Building on the literature on public finance, I seek to advance our understanding of variations in government size by exploring the impact of official development assistance on fiscal policy. I hypothesize that foreign aid operates in... more
Building on the literature on public finance, I seek to advance our understanding of variations in government size by exploring the impact of official development assistance on fiscal policy. I hypothesize that foreign aid operates in accordance with the flypaper effect, ...
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... Into a slim volume of lean prose, Karen L. Remmer has packed a mass of hard data on relationships between development of ... The 1916-30 Radical administrations of Hipólito Irigoyen and Marcelo T. de Alvear changed significantly the... more
... Into a slim volume of lean prose, Karen L. Remmer has packed a mass of hard data on relationships between development of ... The 1916-30 Radical administrations of Hipólito Irigoyen and Marcelo T. de Alvear changed significantly the composition of the national political elite. ...
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Are the policy failures of subnational officials reliably punished by voters, or do subnational elections instead pivot around national trends? This study attempts to shed new light on these questions by exploring subnational elections in... more
Are the policy failures of subnational officials reliably punished by voters, or do subnational elections instead pivot around national trends? This study attempts to shed new light on these questions by exploring subnational elections in the Argentine context. Building on a modified version of the referendum-voting model, our analysis suggests that the fate of candidates in both national and subnational elections is shaped by the performance of the incumbent presidential administration. At the same time, however, we also find evidence that voters respond to the policy choices of subnational governments, albeit in ways that attenuate, rather than strengthen, the nexus between policy responsibility and electoral accountability.
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This study attempts to contribute to the growing debate over democratic accountability by focusing on the electoral impact of natural disasters and economic crises in the Caribbean. Although largely ignored by political science, the... more
This study attempts to contribute to the growing debate over democratic accountability by focusing on the electoral impact of natural disasters and economic crises in the Caribbean. Although largely ignored by political science, the polities in the region share a long history of democratic governance as well as extreme vulnerability to adverse weather conditions and global economic fluctuations. The Caribbean thus offers unusually fertile opportunities for research on the capacity of voters to make rational electoral decisions. Two key questions are addressed. First, to what extent do citizens of the Caribbean punish incumbents for exogenous economic and climatic shocks? Second, what factors, if any, help to insulate democratic leaders from blame for conditions largely outside their control? Contrary to recent research on natural disasters and economic downturns in other contexts, the analysis provides no evidence that voting in the Caribbean has been characterized by systematic attribution errors or electoral myopia. The pattern of citizen attribution of responsibility to policy makers, however, has varied significantly with national independence and political scale.