- Economics, Political Science, Philosophy, History, History of Medicine, Russian History, and 11 moreHistory of Economic Thought, History of Drinking, Health Economics, Research Methodology, Bayesian Econometrics, Medical Statistics, Econometrics, Python, Decision Sciences, Moral Philosophy, and History of Alcohol and Drug Useedit
- Health economist, Analysis of healthy data using Python, Causal inferenceedit
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Research Interests:
Research Interests:
BACKGROUND: By law, Norwegian physicians are required to evaluate costs and benefits of various medical interventions before patients are subjected to them. A prerequisite for filling this" gate-keeping" role adequately is to be informed... more
BACKGROUND: By law, Norwegian physicians are required to evaluate costs and benefits of various medical interventions before patients are subjected to them. A prerequisite for filling this" gate-keeping" role adequately is to be informed about medical benefits and costs. This article examines physicians' knowledge of costs related to an MR (magnetic resonance) examination of a knee.
Abstract: This chapter argues that models trying to explain the spread of drug use should not be based on standard epidemiological models developed to describe the spread of infectious diseases. The main weaknesses of the standard model... more
Abstract: This chapter argues that models trying to explain the spread of drug use should not be based on standard epidemiological models developed to describe the spread of infectious diseases. The main weaknesses of the standard model are the lack of attention to micro-foundations and the inappropriateness of several of its assumptions in the context of drug use. An approach based on mechanisms and social interaction is argued to provide a promising alternative to the standard approach.
This paper investigates the extent to which conclusions from international comparison of health spending depend on different adjustment methods. The analysis shows, first, that health spending figures differ significantly because of... more
This paper investigates the extent to which conclusions from international comparison of health spending depend on different adjustment methods. The analysis shows, first, that health spending figures differ significantly because of different accounting standards. More specifically, spending on long term nursing care is not treated the same way in all the countries. Next, the rankings differ depending on whether spending is adjusted for purchasing power parity and health specific purchasing power adjustment.
AIMS-This paper explores different approaches to quantify the human costs related to drug use. DATA AND METHODS-The data come from a representative survey of 3092 respondents above the age of 18 in four Nordic capitals: Copenhagen,... more
AIMS-This paper explores different approaches to quantify the human costs related to drug use. DATA AND METHODS-The data come from a representative survey of 3092 respondents above the age of 18 in four Nordic capitals: Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm. RESULTS-The results show that in most Nordic capitals more than half of the respondents at some time have known and worried about the drug use of somebody they know personally.
Abstract Issues. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which drug-dependent patients are ineligible for or unwilling to participate in randomised clinical trials. This is important because unrepresentative sample selection is... more
Abstract Issues. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which drug-dependent patients are ineligible for or unwilling to participate in randomised clinical trials. This is important because unrepresentative sample selection is a potentially important problem for randomised trials in the drug dependence field and little is known about the magnitude of the problem. Approach. A total of 98 clinical trials were drawn for analysis from a systematic review of the drug dependence treatment literature. Key Findings.
Klaus Mäkelä argues that calculating the cost to society of alcohol and drugs is” not a promising research programme.” In addition to the empirical problems in measuring these costs, he claims that little is gained by expressing... more
Klaus Mäkelä argues that calculating the cost to society of alcohol and drugs is” not a promising research programme.” In addition to the empirical problems in measuring these costs, he claims that little is gained by expressing consequences like grief and sorrow in monetary units, and in any case it cannot be done objectively because it involves value judgements.
Dette notatet presenterer en enkel modell som viser hvordan kortere arbeidsdag i sektorer med overlappende arbeidstid medfører at en økende andel av arbeidstiden vil gå med til rapportering og en mindre andel vil være effektiv arbeidstid.... more
Dette notatet presenterer en enkel modell som viser hvordan kortere arbeidsdag i sektorer med overlappende arbeidstid medfører at en økende andel av arbeidstiden vil gå med til rapportering og en mindre andel vil være effektiv arbeidstid. Denne mekanismen gjør en liten endring i arbeidstiden i noen tilfeller kan gi en stor endring i kostnadene. Avhengig av forutsetningene, kan for eksempel en reduksjon i arbeidsdagen fra 7 til 6 timer føre til en økning i utgiftene på 25%.
Howard Rachlin has written that" addicts are addicts because they are lonely"(Rachlin 2000: 145, emphasis in original). This claim is part of his" relative addiction theory" and the purpose of the first section of this paper is to present... more
Howard Rachlin has written that" addicts are addicts because they are lonely"(Rachlin 2000: 145, emphasis in original). This claim is part of his" relative addiction theory" and the purpose of the first section of this paper is to present and evaluate some aspects of that theory. To that end I use findings emanating from a survey of about 500 drug users in treatment, as well as large surveys of the general population.
In his comments Rachlin argues, first, that the key variable in his theory is social interaction, not loneliness, or its even less relevant counterpart, self-reported loneliness. Second, evidence on the relationship between drug use and... more
In his comments Rachlin argues, first, that the key variable in his theory is social interaction, not loneliness, or its even less relevant counterpart, self-reported loneliness. Second, evidence on the relationship between drug use and social interaction/loneliness across a population has no relevance when it comes to testing his theory since the theory is only intended to explain individual changes and not absolute levels of substance abuse in a society.
Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster's book one" would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster's purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen... more
Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster's book one" would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster's purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts." 1 Since I cannot claim the same level of intellectual sophistication as Elster, I tried the second approach: To collect the insights of other reviews in order to make an assessment of Elster's book. Unfortunately this strategy turned out inadequate since the quality of many of the reviews was poor.
Introduction The concept of political culture is enjoying a renaissance and Stephen White deserves credit for being one of the initiators of this renewal. His book from 1979, Political Culture and Soviet Politics was one of the first... more
Introduction The concept of political culture is enjoying a renaissance and Stephen White deserves credit for being one of the initiators of this renewal. His book from 1979, Political Culture and Soviet Politics was one of the first books which dealt exclusively with the concept of political culture. Being first often entails making some mistakes that others can learn from. In this review I shall examine the points where I think White is wrong. The main problem, I shall argue, has to do with his wide definition of political culture.
| S= a]–Randomisation makes assumption of independence plausible–Problem for non-experimental data: Since the units in the different treatments are not selected at random we cannot assume that the differences between groups cancel out... more
| S= a]–Randomisation makes assumption of independence plausible–Problem for non-experimental data: Since the units in the different treatments are not selected at random we cannot assume that the differences between groups cancel out when we take the average (not independent). Result: Bias! Estimated difference not the result of treatment, but of group selection/group composition.
Imagine that you are asked to do a cost-benefit analysis of drug-treatment programs. You diligently go about trying to measure the reduction in drug consumption and crime and other variables based on interviews of several hundred drug... more
Imagine that you are asked to do a cost-benefit analysis of drug-treatment programs. You diligently go about trying to measure the reduction in drug consumption and crime and other variables based on interviews of several hundred drug users who have been treated (ignore the fact that you should also have people who have no been treated). You then present your conclusions: One dollar spent on drug treatment produces on average x% reduction in drug use, y% reduction in crime, z% increase in job participation and so on.
The concept of political culture is enjoying a renaissance and Stephen White deserves credit for being one of the initiators of this renewal. His book from 1979, Political Culture and Soviet Politics was one of the first books which dealt... more
The concept of political culture is enjoying a renaissance and Stephen White deserves credit for being one of the initiators of this renewal. His book from 1979, Political Culture and Soviet Politics was one of the first books which dealt exclusively with the concept of political culture. Being first often entails making some mistakes that others can learn from. In this review I shall examine the points where I think White is wrong. The main problem, I shall argue, has to do with his wide definition of political culture.
Statens institutt for rusmiddelforskning (SIRUS) ble opprettet 1. januar 2001 som en sammenslåing av Statens institutt for alkoholog narkotikaforskning(SIFA) og dokumentasjonsseksjonen og biblioteket i Rusmiddeldirektoratet. SIRUS har som... more
Statens institutt for rusmiddelforskning (SIRUS) ble opprettet 1. januar 2001 som en sammenslåing av Statens institutt for alkoholog narkotikaforskning(SIFA) og dokumentasjonsseksjonen og biblioteket i Rusmiddeldirektoratet. SIRUS har som formål å utføre og formidle forskning og dokumentasjon omkring rusmiddelspørsmål, med særlig vekt på samfunnsvitenskapelige problemstillinger. Instituttet er også kontaktpunkt for Det europeiske narkotikaovervåkningssenteret i Lisboa, EMCDDA.
How much information should you collect before making a decision? The short answer is that you should go on collecting information as long as the expected value of spending more time gathering information is larger than the expected costs... more
How much information should you collect before making a decision? The short answer is that you should go on collecting information as long as the expected value of spending more time gathering information is larger than the expected costs of doing so. But, how do you know the expected value and cost of spending more time collecting information? In several articles and books Jon Elster argues that this question represents a serious problem for rational choice theory (see Table 1). The purpose of this essay is to discuss his views.
How much information should you collect before making a decision? The short answer is that you should go on collecting information as long as the expected value of spending more time gathering information is larger than the expected costs... more
How much information should you collect before making a decision? The short answer is that you should go on collecting information as long as the expected value of spending more time gathering information is larger than the expected costs of doing so. But, how do you know the expected value and cost of spending more time collecting information? In several articles and books Jon Elster argues that this question represents a serious problem for rational choice theory (see Table 1). The purpose of this essay is to discuss his views.
The main purpose of the theory of consumer behaviour is, according to M. Blaug, to" justify the notion of a negatively inclined demand curve from fundamental and compelling axioms of individual behavior"(Blaug 1992, p. 140). Unfortunately... more
The main purpose of the theory of consumer behaviour is, according to M. Blaug, to" justify the notion of a negatively inclined demand curve from fundamental and compelling axioms of individual behavior"(Blaug 1992, p. 140). Unfortunately it turns out that the axioms (see appendix below) are not enough to exclude the theoretical possibility of so called Giffen goods, that is a good for which demand increases when the price increases.
Abstract This paper presents the results from a survey that explores different approaches to quanitify the human suffering related to drug use in the Nordic capitals. The results show that, with the exception of Finland, more than half of... more
Abstract This paper presents the results from a survey that explores different approaches to quanitify the human suffering related to drug use in the Nordic capitals. The results show that, with the exception of Finland, more than half of the respondents at some time have known and worried about the drug use of somebody they personally knew.
When Durkheim (1912) wrote his famous study of suicide he chose a topic which appeared to be far out of reach for his approach. Suicide was viewed as a problem of micro-psychology, not as a promising area for a subject concerned about the... more
When Durkheim (1912) wrote his famous study of suicide he chose a topic which appeared to be far out of reach for his approach. Suicide was viewed as a problem of micro-psychology, not as a promising area for a subject concerned about the general laws of society. Yet, Durkheim chose the latter and by so doing gave fuel to a debate that has lasted ever since.
Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster's book one" would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster's purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen... more
Brian Barry once wrote that to review one of Elster's book one" would either have to have taken off several years to master the many fields which fall within Elster's purview or would be a consortium of at least twenty carefully-chosen experts." 1 Since I cannot claim the same level of intellectual sophistication as Elster, I tried the second approach: To collect the insights of other reviews in order to make an assessment of Elster's book. Unfortunately this strategy turned out inadequate since the quality of many of the reviews was poor.
The main purpose of the theory of consumer behaviour is, according to M. Blaug, to" justify the notion of a negatively inclined demand curve from fundamental and compelling axioms of individual behavior"(Blaug 1992, p. 140). Unfortunately... more
The main purpose of the theory of consumer behaviour is, according to M. Blaug, to" justify the notion of a negatively inclined demand curve from fundamental and compelling axioms of individual behavior"(Blaug 1992, p. 140). Unfortunately it turns out that the axioms (see appendix below) are not enough to exclude the theoretical possibility of so called Giffen goods, that is a good for which demand increases when the price increases.
A Norwegian newspaper recently reported on a debate about whether it should be legal to parachute off certain popular cliffs (base-jumping). One participant argued that it should be legal because" the individual has the right to liberty... more
A Norwegian newspaper recently reported on a debate about whether it should be legal to parachute off certain popular cliffs (base-jumping). One participant argued that it should be legal because" the individual has the right to liberty as long as it does not directly harm others"(my translation).
Somewhat surprisingly it turns out that after the exclusion of zetacyllin users, gender was a less important predictor for the use of other drugs. Also the importance of social background as measured by the number of books in the home... more
Somewhat surprisingly it turns out that after the exclusion of zetacyllin users, gender was a less important predictor for the use of other drugs. Also the importance of social background as measured by the number of books in the home turned out to be weaker than previously thought, while weak family economy became more important.
Jukka Törrönen har studerat hur sex finländska dagstidningar i sina ledare åren 1993-2000 först argumenterat för och förenat sig med liberaliseringen av alkoholpolitiken, senare, i ett brytningsskede, skriver om alkoholproblem. De... more
Jukka Törrönen har studerat hur sex finländska dagstidningar i sina ledare åren 1993-2000 först argumenterat för och förenat sig med liberaliseringen av alkoholpolitiken, senare, i ett brytningsskede, skriver om alkoholproblem. De alkoholpolitiska ledarna dominerades av en liberalistisk befrielsetolkning under perioden 1993-1997, med en höjdpunkt åren 1996-1997. Det vanligaste temat i ledarna var kraven på nedmontering av den restriktiva alkoholpolitiken och monopolordningen.
I am going to talk about the concepts of cost to society and social cost, but let me first of all explain the background for this paper. I am a PhD student in economics at the University of Oslo and a research fellow at the National... more
I am going to talk about the concepts of cost to society and social cost, but let me first of all explain the background for this paper. I am a PhD student in economics at the University of Oslo and a research fellow at the National Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research in Norway where I participate in a project that tries to examine the costs and benefits of different programs for treating drug users (cost-benefit analysis).
Den norska statsvetaren svanaug Fjær bekymrar sig i detta nummer över att den nordiska samhällsvetenskapliga alkohol-och drogforskningen blivit akademiskt ointressant och intellektuellt okritisk. De ledande forskningsmiljöerna har enligt... more
Den norska statsvetaren svanaug Fjær bekymrar sig i detta nummer över att den nordiska samhällsvetenskapliga alkohol-och drogforskningen blivit akademiskt ointressant och intellektuellt okritisk. De ledande forskningsmiljöerna har enligt henne haft ett problematiskt nära förhållande till de politiska beslutsfattarna. Det har lett till att en stor del av forskningen omformats till en slags förment neutral, men i själva verket kanske maktlegitimerande, utredningsverksamhet.
Abstract In the debate about laws regulating smoking in restaurants and pubs, there has been some controversy as to whether smoke-free laws would reduce revenues in the hospitality industry. Norway presents an interesting case for three... more
Abstract In the debate about laws regulating smoking in restaurants and pubs, there has been some controversy as to whether smoke-free laws would reduce revenues in the hospitality industry. Norway presents an interesting case for three reasons. First, it was among the first countries to implement smoke-free laws, so it is possible to assess the long-term effects. Second, it has a cold climate so if there is a negative effect on revenue one would expect to find it in Norway.
In this paper I want to focus on two mechanisms that may help to explain levels of drug use in a society: observational learning and self-reinforcing social stigma effects. In short, before deciding whether to experiment with drugs or not... more
In this paper I want to focus on two mechanisms that may help to explain levels of drug use in a society: observational learning and self-reinforcing social stigma effects. In short, before deciding whether to experiment with drugs or not potential users learn about the dangers (and attractions) of using drugs by observing what happened to previous users and they consider the amount of stigma associated with taking drugs.
ABSTRACT According to the OECD Norway spends 47% more on health care per capita compared to Finland and about 30% more than the other Nordic countries. At the same time indicators of health status show that Norway is not better on... more
ABSTRACT According to the OECD Norway spends 47% more on health care per capita compared to Finland and about 30% more than the other Nordic countries. At the same time indicators of health status show that Norway is not better on important indicators of health. This raises the question of why there is such a gap between spending and outcome in Norway compared to the other Nordic countries. This paper lists a number of possible explanations and quantifies their importance.
Abstract The gateway, or stepping stone, hypothesis is important as it has had considerable influence on drug policy and legislation in many countries. The gateway hypothesis offers one possible explanation for young people's development... more
Abstract The gateway, or stepping stone, hypothesis is important as it has had considerable influence on drug policy and legislation in many countries. The gateway hypothesis offers one possible explanation for young people's development of serious drug problems. It simply states that the use of one drug increases the risk of starting to consume another, possibly more harmful, drug later on and that the risk increases with frequency of use (dose-response).
Page 1. From spurious correlation to misleading association: The nature and extent of spurious correlation and its implication for the philosophy of science with special emphasis on positivism Hans O. Melberg The Philosophy of Social... more
Page 1. From spurious correlation to misleading association: The nature and extent of spurious correlation and its implication for the philosophy of science with special emphasis on positivism Hans O. Melberg The Philosophy of Social Science, Dr. Polit course at the University of Oslo Oslo, 15. September, 2000. Page 2.
Abstract The gateway hypothesis offers one possible explanation for young people's development of a serious drug problem. It simply states that the use of one drug increases the risk of starting to consume another, and possibly more... more
Abstract The gateway hypothesis offers one possible explanation for young people's development of a serious drug problem. It simply states that the use of one drug increases the risk of starting to consume another, and possibly more harmful, drug later on and that the risk increases with frequency of use. Although controversial, the hypothesis has had considerable influence on drug policy and legislation in many countries.
Bakgrunnen for denne rapporten er at Statens institutt for rusmiddelforskning (SIRUS) sammen med HEMIL-senteret ved Universitetet i Bergen fikk i oppdrag å evaluere statlige tiltak for å redusere tobakksbruk i Norge i perioden 2003-2007.... more
Bakgrunnen for denne rapporten er at Statens institutt for rusmiddelforskning (SIRUS) sammen med HEMIL-senteret ved Universitetet i Bergen fikk i oppdrag å evaluere statlige tiltak for å redusere tobakksbruk i Norge i perioden 2003-2007. Flere tiltak har blitt evaluert i dette programmet bl. a. tre mediekampanjer, et landsomfattende skoleprogram, utvidelsen av arealet på helseadvarslene og lovendringen som førte til røykfrie serveringssteder.
This article discusses three problems related to the use and interpretation of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) composite scores. First, the lack of standardized scores makes it difficult both to interpret and compare individual scores.... more
This article discusses three problems related to the use and interpretation of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) composite scores. First, the lack of standardized scores makes it difficult both to interpret and compare individual scores. Second, it is difficult to interpret a change in a composite score and to know whether this is a large or a small change. Finally, one might question the objective validity of some of the composite scores because some of the questions that go into the calculation of the composite scores invite subjective responses. Moreover, the argument that the validity of the ASI composite scores is assured by high Cronbach’s alphas is rejected as largely irrelevant.
Existing studies of the social cost of substance abuse give very different answers. Part of the reason for the differences is that the contributions differ in their definition of costs and the types of costs that are included or excluded... more
Existing studies of the social cost
of substance abuse give very different
answers. Part of the reason for the
differences is that the contributions
differ in their definition of costs and
the types of costs that are included
or excluded from the study. Closer
attention to the concept of cost
employed in these studies also reveals
some weaknesses with many of the
existing studies. The policy relevant
concept of cost necessarily implies a
comparison between all realistically
expected consequences (both positive
and negative) of two policy alternatives
and many cost studies do not use the
concept of cost in this way. Finally, it is
argued that cost estimates in this area
cannot be neutral or scientific because
the results depend on our views on
when a choice can be characterized
as voluntary and rational, how we
deal with the problem of inconsistent
preferences, and which preferences we
consider to be legitimate. Since there is
no agreed consensus on these issues,
the cost estimate necessarily becomes
subjective.
of substance abuse give very different
answers. Part of the reason for the
differences is that the contributions
differ in their definition of costs and
the types of costs that are included
or excluded from the study. Closer
attention to the concept of cost
employed in these studies also reveals
some weaknesses with many of the
existing studies. The policy relevant
concept of cost necessarily implies a
comparison between all realistically
expected consequences (both positive
and negative) of two policy alternatives
and many cost studies do not use the
concept of cost in this way. Finally, it is
argued that cost estimates in this area
cannot be neutral or scientific because
the results depend on our views on
when a choice can be characterized
as voluntary and rational, how we
deal with the problem of inconsistent
preferences, and which preferences we
consider to be legitimate. Since there is
no agreed consensus on these issues,
the cost estimate necessarily becomes
subjective.
To test an implication of Becker's rational addiction theory, namely that price changes will lead both to simultaneous consumption changes as well as lagged changes (and potentially also immediate changes if future... more
To test an implication of Becker's rational addiction theory, namely that price changes will lead both to simultaneous consumption changes as well as lagged changes (and potentially also immediate changes if future changes in prices are anticipated). Time-series analysis, first of aggregate sales of distilled spirits and prices, controlled for gross national product (GNP), and secondly of deaths from delirium tremens. Denmark 1911-31. Price changes were very large in the period 1916-18 due to shortages during World War I, and the Danish case can be conceived as a natural experiment. No evidence for lagged price effects in the expected direction was found. On the contrary, the evidence pointed in the opposite direction. The immediate reduction in sales following rising prices are, to some degree, counteracted by an adjustment in the opposite direction the following year. The delirium tremens data confirm this pattern. Becker's theory is not confirmed. Several possible explanations are discussed. If the pattern observed in these data is representative of a more general mechanism, current price elasticity estimates may be too high, by ignoring lagged compensatory effects.