Duration Analysis

In this paper I exploit a detailed database of occupational trajectories between 2010
and 2015 for a large sample of Mexican workers to explore how certain sociodemographic
characteristics affect employment spells of workers in informal jobs. Informal employment—
which in this paper is defined as employment without social security benefits—is
an important characteristic of labor markets in most developing countries, and in the case
of Mexico it represents about 60% of the employed population. Using a Cox proportional
hazards model, I analyze the duration of informal jobs and examine whether certain socioeconomic
characteristics can account for the length of informality spells. The results
show that for workers already employed in informal jobs, men, older workers, and workers
that enter the labor market relatively late in life tend to experience longer spells of
informal employment. In addition, a worker whose first job is informal is more likely
to be employed in informal jobs later in his work life but experiences shorter employment
spells. In contrast, relatively more educated workers are more likely to spend less
time in informal jobs. A comparison of workers with similar socioeconomic characteristics
shows that those workers employed in informal jobs enjoy less job security in the
sense that the probability of losing their job at any given moment is much higher. Results
are robust to parametric specifications and geographical controls. My results highlight
the impact that informal employment can have on individuals’ lifetime labor trajectories
and the large differences in employment duration outcomes that workers with different
sociodemographic characteristics can experience working in informal jobs.

The paper analyses existing moraic conceptions of Estonian quantity. Main features of functional, generative and phonetically-instructed moraic accounts of Estonian are considered. In most generative accounts, morae simultaneously represent several layers of functionally and structurally diverse information. This brings along a considerable increase in formal analytical machinery and internal controversies. In a structural functional framework, morae can be used to formalise the prosodic contrast of long and short stressed syllables in Estonian. Its relevance is traced in actual functioning of the prosodic system. This contrast is built upon the segmental contrast of short and long phonemes and, in turn, serves as a basis for a contrast of two distinctive foot accents, light and heavy. As an example, a formal morphonological algorithm of calculating Estonian foot accents, which also shows the place of a syllable weight contrast, is proposed in the paper.

This paper evaluates the effects of further training on the unemployment duration of different groups of persons representing individual characteristics and some aspects of the economic environment. The Micro Census Saxony enables us to include the employment history as a proxy for unobserved variables and to avoid Ashenfelters Dip. We employ an optimal full matching assignment, which is superior to greedy pair matching in the sense that it avoids the loss of observations due to the design of the algorithm. Overall, we find empirical evidence that participation in further training programmes results in even longer unemployment, with only gradual differences.

There are few studies on unemployment duration in developing countries. This is the first study on duration aspect of unemployment in Turkey. We use the results of the Household Labor Force Surveys of 2000 and 2001 to construct a cross-section of durations of unemployment spells. We analyze the determinants of probability of leaving unemployment or the hazard rate. The effects of the personal and household characteristics and the local labor market conditions are examined. Non-Parametric and parametric estimation methods are used, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity. Two alternative definitions of unemployment are considered. The analyses are carried out for men and women separately. Our results indicate that women are experiencing higher unemployment durations then men. Age has a negative and education has a positive effect on the hazard rate. The effect of the local unemployment rate is large and negative. Duration dependence of the exit rate from unemployment is differen...

This paper examines the determinants of the exit behaviour of banks in the Nigerian consolidation program during July 2004 and December 2005. We conceptualise the exit process in a flexible bivariate competing risks model to examine the importance of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors for both merged banks and failed banks jointly. The preliminary results suggest that bank-specific characteristics mattered more for preventing bank failure than they did for emergence of the M&A banks. Second, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s assistance was highly influential in preventing bank failure, and, for banks that benefited, the assistance increased their probability of being merged or acquired. Also, we found no strong evidence suggesting that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and industry-specific factors had influenced exit behaviour of banks during the consolidation exercise. We found evidence of structural dependence between failure and merger and acquisition hazards induced ...

This paper examines the determinants of the exit behaviour of banks in the Nigerian consolidation program during July 2004 and December 2005. We conceptualise the exit process in a flexible bivariate competing risks model to examine the importance of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors for both merged banks and failed banks jointly. The preliminary results suggest that bank-specific characteristics mattered more for preventing bank failure than they did for emergence of the M&A banks. Second, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s assistance was highly influential in preventing bank failure, and, for banks that benefited, the assistance increased their probability of being merged or acquired. Also, we found no strong evidence suggesting that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and industry-specific factors had influenced exit behaviour of banks during the consolidation exercise. We found evidence of structural dependence between failure and merger and acquisition hazards induced ...