sustainability
Review
Food Security Challenges in Europe in the Context of the
Prolonged Russian–Ukrainian Conflict
Mohammad Fazle Rabbi 1, *, Tarek Ben Hassen 2 , Hamid El Bilali 3 , Dele Raheem 4
1
2
3
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5
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Citation: Rabbi, M.F.; Ben Hassen, T.;
El Bilali, H.; Raheem, D.; Raposo, A.
Food Security Challenges in Europe
in the Context of the Prolonged
Russian–Ukrainian Conflict.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 4745. https://
doi.org/10.3390/su15064745
and António Raposo 5
Ihrig Károly Doctoral School of Management and Business, University of Debrecen, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary
Program of Policy, Planning, and Development, Department of International Affairs, College of Arts and
Sciences, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar
International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM-Bari), Via Ceglie 9,
70010 Valenzano, Italy
Northern Institute for Environmental and Minority Law (NIEM), Arctic Centre, University of Lapland,
96101 Rovaniemi, Finland
CBIOS (Research Center for Biosciences and Health Technologies), Universidade Lusófona de Humanidades e
Tecnologias, Campo Grande 376, 1749-024 Lisboa, Portugal
Correspondence: drrabbikhan@gmail.com
Abstract: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two major agricultural powers, has
numerous severe socio-economic consequences that are presently being felt worldwide and that are
undermining the functioning of the global food system. The war has also had a profound impact on
the European food system. Accordingly, this paper examines the implications of the ongoing conflict
on food security pillars (viz. availability, access, use, stability) in European countries and considers
potential strategies for addressing and mitigating these effects. The paper highlights that the food
supply in Europe does not seem to be jeopardized since most European countries are generally
self-sufficient in many products. Nonetheless, the conflict might impact food access and production
costs. Indeed, the European agricultural industry is a net importer of several commodities, such as
inputs and animal feed. This vulnerability, combined with the high costs of inputs such as fertilizers
and energy, creates production difficulties for farmers and threatens to drive up food prices, affecting
food affordability and access. Higher input prices increase production costs and, ultimately, inflation.
This may affect food security and increase (food) poverty. The paper concludes that increasing food
aid, ensuring a stable fertilizer supply, imposing an energy price cap, initiating a farmer support
package, switching to renewable energy sources for cultivation, changing individual food behaviors,
lifting trade restrictions, and political stability can safeguard food security pillars and strengthen the
resilience of the European food system.
Keywords: food security; food security pillars; food supply; food; energy; conflict; Russia; Ukraine; war
Academic Editor: Marian Rizov
Received: 24 January 2023
Revised: 5 March 2023
Accepted: 6 March 2023
Published: 7 March 2023
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
1. Introduction
During the past decades, the global food system has faced several crises, including
climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, causing market and supply chain disruption
and raising concerns about food security. Consequently, food prices have been increasing
since the middle of 2021 due to supply chain disruptions brought on by the pandemic [1],
rising global demand, and poor harvests in several countries [2,3]. Fuel, fertilizer, and
pesticide prices have also increased to nearly record levels [4,5]. Further, the FAO Food Price
Index (FFPI) surpassed a new record in February 2022, rising by 2.2% from the previous
peak in February 2011 and by 21% in the year prior [6,7]. Since most European countries
depend on imports to meet their energy demand, the continent has seen skyrocketing costs
beginning in the summer of 2021. The rise in energy prices hit many of the inputs used by
European farmers, such as feed and fertilizers. Hence, annual inflation in the European
4.0/).
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Union (EU) reached 5.2% in November 2021 (4.9% in the Euro area), 27.5% in the energy
sector, and 2.2% in the food, alcohol, and tobacco sector [5].
In the early hours of 24 February 2022, Russia began a full-scale military invasion
of Ukraine, resulting in civilian casualties and the destruction of vital infrastructure. In
addition to significant human fatalities and devastation, the war has jeopardized global
food security by disrupting agriculture production and trade in one of the world’s most
significant food-exporting regions [8–12]. It has significantly contributed to rapidly rising
global food prices, aggravating existing food system vulnerabilities already worsened
by climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic [13,14]. A year into the conflict, its final
military implications and outcomes are unknown [15]. However, its impacts on agricultural
production and food security are clear [11,12,16,17]. It has caused a severe drop in both
countries’ exports and production of essential commodities (e.g., cereals). Their price has
soared worldwide, threatening to force millions into famine and poverty, especially in LowIncome Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) [11,12,16,17]. The European Commission [17]
predicted that up to 25 million tons of wheat would need to be substituted to meet global
food demands for the current and upcoming seasons.
While Russia and Ukraine contribute just about 2% of the global Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), they are both global breadbaskets, producing and exporting essential
agricultural commodities, minerals, fertilizers, and energy [18–20]. These countries supply
about 30% of globally traded wheat, 20% corn, and 70% sunflower oil. Hence, in 2021,
they were among the top three global wheat and corn exporters, accounting for more than
50% and 25% of all sunflower oil sold worldwide [7]. Overall, Russia and Ukraine export
around 12% of the global total caloric trade [4]. Furthermore, before the conflict, Russia was
the world’s largest supplier of fertilizers (such as nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus)
and one of the leading oil and natural gas exporters, owing to its vast reserves [10,21–23].
Accordingly, the conflict dealt a considerable blow to commodity markets, particularly
food, fertilizers, and energy, impacting global trade, production, and consumption patterns
in ways that will keep prices at historic highs until the end of 2024, jeopardizing global
food security [11,12]. Higher energy, input, and food prices might considerably impact
global food security, particularly in vulnerable countries. Because of the interdependence
inherent in international trade, the broader repercussions are felt throughout the globe
in today’s hyper-connected global economy with its deep trade ties [24]. According to
the World Bank [24], in January 2023, maize and wheat prices were 27% and 13% higher,
respectively, than in January 2021, while rice price was 10% lower. Therefore, between
September and December 2022, 94.1% of low-income nations, 92.9% of lower-middleincome countries, and 89% of upper-middle-income countries had inflation exceeding
5%, with several having double-digit inflation [25]. High inflation is also prevalent in
high-income countries, including some in Europe, with around 85.5% suffering high food
price inflation [26].
The conflict has also significantly affected the European food system, which was
already dealing with interrupted supply lines due to the COVID-19 outbreak [27]. The
food supply in the EU is not jeopardized, since most European countries benefit from
well-developed agricultural production and are mostly self-sufficient in many products.
However, the European agricultural sector is a net importer of specific products, such as
animal feed. This vulnerability, combined with the high costs of inputs such as fertilizers
and energy, creates production difficulties for farmers and threatens to drive up food prices,
affecting food availability and access [28]. Indeed, the substantial dependence of some
European nations on the Russian energy supply makes it hard to avoid price increases
on essential items such as food [29]. This increases producer costs and affects food prices,
raising worries over consumer purchasing power and producer income. Inflation affects
the price of basic commodities, particularly for low-income households, for whom the
affordability of nutritious meals was already a challenge before the start of the conflict [29].
The conflict highlighted the European food system’s vulnerabilities, such as its dependence
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on imported energy, fertilizer, and animal feed [18]. In 2019, Russia supplied the European
Union with over 40% of its natural gas, 25% of its oil, and almost 50% of its coal [30].
After decades of low inflation, the EU faces new economic, political, and social challenges from increasing consumer prices. Rising energy and food prices are already generating high societal costs in terms of decreased buying power. They are also anticipated
to exacerbate material deprivation, poverty, and social exclusion throughout the EU [31].
The next several months will be among the most challenging in modern history for the
European and global agri-food sectors [10]. Although futures prices have gone down and
international markets have adjusted and adapted, there is a possibility of a short-term inflation increase due to the delayed transmission of previous food and energy price increases
from global commodity markets to consumer prices. For instance, the IMF [31] predicts
that global inflation will climb from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022 before falling to 6.5% in
2023 and 4.1% in 2024. In Europe, the effects are compounded by the significant impact of
war-related energy shocks [31].
In this context, this paper aims to assess the possible impacts of the war between
Russia and Ukraine on food security in European countries. It aims to address these two
questions: Firstly, what were the principal consequences of the conflict on food security in
European countries, and how significant were they? Secondly, how did the war affect the
food security condition of European populations?
Several scholars, government representatives, and media outlets have examined the
implications of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security. However, to the best of
our knowledge, this study is the first to specifically examine the impact of the Russia–
Ukraine conflict on food security in Europe. Despite the numerous studies conducted
on the topic, none have expressly focused on this region and the possible repercussions
it may face due to the ongoing conflict. Most of the existing research focused on the
impact of the conflict on global food security [11,12,30,32–35], energy security [16,36], or its
economic implications [37,38]. Accordingly, this research aims to fill that gap by providing
a comprehensive examination of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security
in Europe, including the potential risks and challenges that may arise, as well as potential
strategies for mitigating those risks. By providing this information, we hope to contribute
to a better understanding of the complex relationship between conflicts and food security
in Europe and beyond.
While food security is only one aspect of the consequences of the war, it is a critical one
that affects the well-being of millions worldwide. Therefore, the focus on the impact of the
war on food security is vital because it highlights the urgent need for measures to address
these issues. It is also worth noting that food security is interconnected with other aspects
of the war’s consequences, such as inflation, poverty, and social instability. Therefore, by
addressing food security, it is possible to have positive ripple effects on other aspects of the
conflict’s consequences.
The impacts of the war exhibit regional variability and may even differ among countries within the same region. Other regions of the world that may be more seriously affected
by the impact of the war on food security, such as the Middle East and the North Africa
(MENA) region [39], might have different dynamics and factors at play that require different policy interventions. To better grasp the far-reading and multifaceted effects of the
war on the global food system, it is paramount to have analyses relating to developing and
developed countries (e.g., the European Union). By focusing specifically on the impact of
the Russian–Ukrainian conflict on food security in Europe, the paper provides targeted
policy recommendations tailored to the region’s specific context and challenges. In the
context of the conflict, it is crucial to consider the unique dynamics and factors in each area
to develop effective solutions.
In the following sections, we will introduce the research methodology (Section 2),
followed by the presentation of the study findings in Sections 3 and 4. Next, we will
examine and discuss these findings before presenting the major conclusions.
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2. Materials and Methods
A specific search strategy and an article selection criterion are incorporated into
the methodology (Figure 1). The article draws upon both the scholarly literature and
the grey literature. In both cases, strict and well-defined inclusion criteria were used so
that only documents that deal with the war in Ukraine and its impacts on food security
(and its different pillars) were considered eligible and included in the present review.
As for the scholarly literature, we used forward and backward searches on the most
important databases, namely Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar, which is the
most effective way to find peer-reviewed literature (individually or Boolean combined).
Figure 1 contains the search string used, focusing primarily on “food security”, Ukraine,
war, and Europe. For instance, in the case of the Web of Science, the search returned
18 documents [12,17,23,40–54]. The terms were chosen to capture the broadest range of the
literature relevant to our research question. Using multiple databases and a combination of
search terms ensured that we identified a comprehensive and diverse range of the literature
on the topic, which was then carefully evaluated for relevance, eligibility, and quality. This
approach enabled us to identify the most relevant and recent literature on the impact of the
Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security in Europe.
Figure 1. Data search, selection, and analysis. Source: authors’
authors’ elaboration.
The grey literature was located using Google and included reports, policy documents,
magazine and newspaper articles, and technical and working papers produced by regional
and international organizations (e.g., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO), World Food Program (WFP), World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), World Economic Forum (WEF), European Commission,
European Council, European Committee of the Regions, European Parliament (EP), European Investment Bank), Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), Food Security
Portal, consulting firms (e.g., McKinsey, Boston Consulting Group, KPMG, etc.), and international newspapers and news platforms (e.g., Food Business News, Geneva Environment
Network, Bloomberg, Deutsche Welle, Euronews, Financial Times, The Guardian).
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This method enabled us to collect a broad range of information from various sources,
including government reports, news articles, and other pertinent documents that give a
thorough knowledge of the effect of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security in Europe.
In accordance with the definition of food security, the analytical approach adopted
in this research considers all four dimensions: availability, access, use, and stability [55].
The study aims to comprehensively analyze how the conflict has affected food security
in Europe by assessing the various factors contributing to food insecurity. This includes
evaluating the impact on food production, distribution, and consumption, as well as the
stability of the food supply chain. Additionally, the research also examines the various
strategies that have been implemented to mitigate the effects of the conflict on food security
and assesses their effectiveness. Overall, the analytical approach adopted in this research
aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on
food security in European countries.
3. Results and Discussion
In this section, we first analyze the threats posed by the war in Ukraine and other
disruptions to food security and its pillars (viz. availability, access, utilization, and stability)
before analyzing how the European Union can reshape and reconfigure its food system in
order to ensure food security for its population amid the war crisis.
3.1. Threats Posed by War and Other Disruptions to Food Security
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has undermined important food security
tenets. Wars and military conflicts put countries at risk of international trade disruptions,
particularly those that depend on imports of critical commodities such as oil and food [16].
Armed conflicts may negatively impact food security by generating shortages of upstream
and downstream outputs, hurting food production, commercialization, and stock management [56]. War and violence continue to be the primary cause of hunger, with 60% of
the world’s hungry population residing in regions affected by conflict. Further, in today’s
globalized world, military conflicts may exacerbate food insecurity in regions beyond the
battlefield [35]. Due to wars, a country’s agricultural production can be drastically reduced
if crops cannot be planted, weeded, or harvested [57].
Farmers in Ukraine’s conflict-prone areas lost livestock, food supplies, and other assets,
disrupting food market supply in these and other surrounding regions and neighboring
countries. The destruction of civil infrastructure and the presence of mines and Unexploded
Ordnances (UXOs) coupled with limitations on the movement of people and goods have
made it difficult for farmers to tend to their fields, harvest their crops, and sell their livestock
products [58]. Additionally, with conscription and population displacement, there was a
significant labor shortage. Fertilizers and other critical agricultural inputs are becoming
more limited, exacerbating the situation [15]. Further, the conflict-affected regions, such as
Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, account for a significant portion of Ukraine’s pre-war output,
with 25% of barley, 16% of sunflower seed, 20% of rapeseed, and 20% of wheat [59].
According to assessments, the conflict would cost farmers and agricultural corporations
USD 28.3 billion this year in lost income, damage to farming machinery, equipment, storage
facilities, livestock, and crops, and increased transportation costs [60].
The conflict’s effects on global issues are too early to be determined, but it is evident
they will be multifaceted [61]. The conflict has prompted widespread international concern
over a global food crisis and its potential effects on food security (Figure 2). Indeed, a
growing body of the literature shows that the war has affected food security at different
levels and scales [12,17,23,40–54], especially in developing countries that rely on food
imports [12,42,44,45,51] and for some commodities such as wheat [47,52,53]. However, it
seems that the impacts of the war have not been alike on the four pillars of food security.
Furthermore, the extent of the war’s impact on the food security pillars will be determined
by its length and the outcomes of the different scenarios.
–
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Furthermore, the extent of the war’s impact on the food security pillars will be determined
Figure 2. Ukrainian–Russian
conflict and its consequences on food security pillars. Source: developed
–
by the authors.
3.1.1. Availability
First and foremost, food security requires a sufficient amount of food needs to be
available regularly. It focuses on determining what calories are available nationally or at
the individual level (e.g., cereals or animal proteins), including the adequate supply of
nutritional foods [55].
Ukraine has long been renowned as “Europe’s breadbasket” because of its abundance
of “Chernozem”, or black soil, considered the most fertile farmland in the world, and has a
high producing potential. Ukraine’s agricultural land area totals 41 million hectares, with
33 million hectares being arable, the equivalent of one-third of the EU’s total arable land
area [62]. A significant fall in agricultural production and supply followed the collapse
of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and Russia and Ukraine became net importers of
food [63]. However, Russian and Ukrainian agro-food output and exports have expanded
considerably during the last three decades due to intense modernization and automation,
making the region the world’s breadbasket [19]. In 2021, Russia and Ukraine exported
nearly 12% of the food calories traded globally, making them essential actors in the global
agri-food sector [23]. They are significant producers of staple agro-commodities such as
wheat, corn, and sunflower oil and Russia is the largest exporter of fertilizers in the world.
Further, Ukraine is one of the top three grain exporters, leading the world in soybean and
sunflower oil exports. Ukraine controls 52.2% of the global sunflower oil market. Ukrainian
agricultural exports have acquired a rising reputation in China, Egypt, India, Turkey, and
the European Union [64].
Figure 3 shows that in 2021, Ukraine and Russia combined trade accounts for over
34% of world wheat, 17% of corn, 27% of barley, and over 80% and 55% of sunflower
cake and oil, respectively. The global trade in vegetable oils and food calories amounts to
10% and 11.80%, respectively. Furthermore, Russia exports 16% of fish (Alaska pollock),
13% of mineral fertilizers such as ammonia, phosphate rock, sulfur, and 16% of finished
fertilizers [4].
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Russia’s
authors’
Figure 3. The proportion of Ukraine and Russia’s combined global exports in 2021. Source: authors’
estimations based on FAO [18] and AMIS market monitor data [65].
As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global markets were disrupted. Short
As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global markets were disrupted. Shortterm disruptions in global grain supply and long-term effects on natural gas and fertilizer
markets negatively impacted producers during the planting season. This disruption might
exacerbate already high food price inflation, posing a significant threat to low-income
net food importers, many of whom have suffered a rise in malnutrition rates due to the
pandemic disruptions [4].
The European Commission [17] predicted that up to 25 million tons of wheat would
need to be substituted to meet global food demands for the current and upcoming seasons.
Initiative’s inception and renewal, as well as measures to enhance
The Black Sea Grain Initiative’s
export capacity through non-marine channels, have assisted in easing Ukraine’s strict
export restrictions brought on by the shutdown of Black Sea ports at the onset of the
conflict [23]. Over 9.3 million metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and other products have been
shipped under the deal as of 28 October 2022. The agreement enables Ukraine to quadruple
its exports above the pre-deal level, albeit it still functions at 50% of its pre-war 2021 level.
Even while the deal did not completely address the problems with food exports from the
conflict zone, it significantly relieved the strain on the existing markets and Ukrainian
farmers who were unable to transport their commodities [66]. Consequently, Ukraine is
expected to export 39.5 million tons of grain and oilseeds in 2022–23, while the country’s
entire export potential is between 55 and 60 million tons [59]. Ukraine’s exports and grain
production decreased by around 40% and 30% in 2022 compared with 2021. The decline in
the wheat, maize, and sunflower harvests is estimated to be approximately 40–50%, 25%,
and 35%, respectively, compared with 2021 [67].
Further, some issues will impact the 2023 harvest due to rising seed, transport, and
fuel costs combined with low grain selling prices [68]. For instance, the transportation
costs to ports have increased by over 100%, and the substitute option, which involves
truck transport to Romania, costs nearly four times as much [69]. Accordingly, the sowing
of winter wheat has decreased by 17% compared with the harvested area of 2022, while
the estimated area for maize cultivation is reduced by 30% to 35% [67]. As a result, in
2023, Ukraine’s grain production and exports are anticipated to diminish by 20% and
15% compared with 2022. The grain exports may decline even more to 15 MT during the
2023/2024 season, a significant drop from the 54.9 MT recorded in 2019–2020 and 44.9 MT
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in 2020–2021 [67]. Additionally, despite reports that Russian food exports have persisted,
there are fears that access to banking services required to execute foreign transactions may
have hindered exports [23].
Furthermore, as was evident during the 2007–2008 food crisis and the COVID-19
pandemic, many nations imposed export bans to ensure the availability of local foods and
to reduce inflation (e.g., India for wheat; Serbia for grains and vegetable oils; Indonesia for
palm oil), which exacerbates the situation [70]. Indeed, growing protectionism exacerbates
the war’s impact on global food markets. Around 17% of total global food and feed exports
(on a caloric basis) were impacted by export restrictions at their height in late May 2022.
After May, many nations relaxed the restrictions to some degree: midway through July,
it dropped to 7.3% of total trade being impacted and stayed relatively constant for the
remainder of 2022. According to IFPRI’s Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker,
32 countries implemented a total of 77 export restrictions in 2022. These limits included
export license requirements, export taxes or duties, outright bans, or some combination
of measures [71]. As of December 2022, 19 countries had imposed 23 food export bans,
while 8 had adopted 12 export restriction measures [25]. These actions can potentially have
severe unintended consequences for vulnerable populations in food-importing countries,
boosting prices and deepening food insecurity issues already aggravated by the COVID-19
pandemic [40,72]. Export limitations exacerbated severe deficits during the food crisis of
2007–2008, which led to riots across Asia and Africa [73].
In Europe, the food supply is not jeopardized since most European countries benefit
from well-developed agricultural production. Except for tropical items (such as fruit, coffee,
and tea), oilseeds (particularly soya), and natural fats and oils (including palm oil), the EU
is self-sufficient in most food products [74]. The EU is generally self-sufficient in essential
agricultural crops, including wheat and barley (which it is a net exporter of), maize, and
sugar. The EU is also self-sufficient in a variety of animal products, including dairy and
meat products, as well as fruits and vegetables [5]. Although Russia’s Ukraine conflict and
climate change affect output, the EU’s food system remains robust and reliable. However,
essential goods, such as animal feed, are net imported by the European agricultural industry.
Due to this vulnerability and the high input costs, such as those for energy and fertilizers,
farmers face productivity challenges and risk having food prices rise. This would reduce
access to and availability of food [28]. Indeed, the substantial dependence of some European
nations on the Russian energy supply makes it hard to avoid price increases on essential
items such as food [29]. Ukraine was a key exporter of corn to Euro countries before the
start of the conflict, accounting for 42% of EU grain imports in 2019, 30.5% in 2020, and
29.1% in 2021. Vegetable fat and oil imports from Ukraine were also significant, making up
about 24% of EU imports between 2019 and 2021 before the crisis. Meanwhile, before the
conflict, Russia accounted for approximately one-fifth of EU inorganic fertilizer imports.
With the extensive usage of fertilizers in the EU, this may be destabilizing [29].
Some countries, such as Spain, are more vulnerable than others due to their high
dependence on imports from Ukraine. The Spanish agricultural industry was already
dealing with a significant increase in energy and other input costs, as well as a lengthy
period of drought. The invasion of Ukraine is causing challenges in industries such as
animal husbandry, the food industry, and food retailing. Indeed, Spain is a significant
global pork exporter (China’s largest pig meat supplier), but pigs need a large quantity of
grain and oilseed to reach marketable weight. However, it also has a structural shortage of
grains [75]. Accordingly, Spain is a net importer of cereals, with Ukraine accounting for a
significant portion of its imports. Ukraine is one of Spain’s most important agricultural
trading partners, accounting for over 30% of its corn imports and 70% of its sunflower oil
imports in 2021 [29]. In the same year, Spain bought 18.4% of its total cereals purchased on
foreign markets from Ukraine, valued at EUR 545 million. This makes Ukraine its second
biggest trade partner after Brazil. In the case of corn, an essential item for animal feed,
Ukraine accounted for more than 30% of total imports, accounting for 2.4 million tons
worth EUR 510 million [75].
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3.1.2. Accessibility
This pillar comprises variables that measure infrastructures for bringing food to
market, individual indicators of people’s access to calories, and affordability of purchasing
nutritional food. Accordingly, market disruption and rising inflation may put the food
accessibility pillar in jeopardy [55]. Due to the Ukraine–Russia war, it will become even
more difficult for some European low-income households to afford food.
As explained above, the food supply in the EU is not jeopardized since most European countries benefit from well-developed agricultural production. Indeed, the EU is a
significant producer of agri-food products—it was the world’s largest trader in 2021—and,
although Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and climate change affect output, the EU’s food
system remains robust and reliable. However, inflation and increased food prices affect
EU citizens [76]. The steep rise in energy prices following the conflict impacts agriculture,
an energy-intensive industry. Additionally, despite the recent price drops, the cost of
fertilizers and other energy-intensive goods has remained high due to the war. Increased
input costs translate into higher production expenses, thus raising food prices [23]. Accordingly, accessibility and affordability are the main consequences of the conflict on food
security, especially for low-income and vulnerable populations that are disproportionately
impacted [76].
On average, Europeans face lower rates of undernourishment, hunger, and food
insecurity than the rest of the world [77]. However, in 2021, 7.3% of the EU’s total population
and more than one-sixth of the poor could not afford a meal containing meat, fish, or a
vegetarian equivalent every other day. This proportion varied from 22.4% in Bulgaria to
less than 2.0% in Cyprus (0.4%), Ireland (1.6%), Sweden (1.6%), and the Netherlands (1.8%).
Among those at risk of poverty, the share was 17.4% [78].
According to Eurostat [79], the European Union’s statistics agency, annual inflation in
the Eurozone is predicted to be 9.2% in December 2022, down from 10.1% in November.
When it comes to the main components of eurozone inflation, energy is expected to have
the highest annual rate in December (25.7% compared with 34.9% in November), followed
by food, alcohol, and tobacco (13.8% compared with 13.6% in November), and non-energy
industrial goods (6.4% compared with 6.1% in November). It dipped slightly lower for the
first time since June 2021. However, it remains in the double digits as increasing food costs
and hefty energy bills continue to strain budgets. They will continue to have an impact on
European consumers’ purchasing power.
Since November 2021, energy and food have been the primary contributors to consistently high monthly inflation. Since the Spring of 2022, the situation has deteriorated due
to market interruptions caused by the conflict in Ukraine. The Baltic countries continue
to be the most affected. For instance, in November 2022, inflation in Latvia was at 21.7%
compared with 7.4% a year ago, making it the highest rate in the Eurozone. Inflation in the
UK unexpectedly climbed to 11.1% in October 2022, the highest level since 1981. Despite
a government cap, the cost of energy and gas increased by 24% year over year, while the
price of food increased by 16.4%, contributing significantly to the overall rise [80]. Even
though inflation affects countries differently throughout the EU, lower-income families
are the most impacted in all member states. According to the European Parliament’s
Eurobarometer study [81], the major concern for European citizens is “increasing living
costs” (93%), followed by “poverty and social exclusion” (82%).
Moreover, inflation caused by the conflict might cut private consumption by 1.1% in
the European Union in 2022. However, the effect would vary by country. The impact will
be felt more acutely in nations where consumption is more sensitive to energy and food
costs and where a sizable proportion of the population is vulnerable to poverty. Central
and south-eastern European countries are disproportionately impacted [82]. Europeans
continuously feel the strain of the rise in food prices and the high inflation rate. As a
result, many European citizens are losing buying power of necessary commodities. For
instance, even Germany, which has solid domestic production and does not rely much on
Ukrainian exports, is very susceptible to escalating inflation, driven mainly by the rising
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cost of Russian energy and fertilizer
[29]. In November
2022, Germany’s consumer price
. In November
2022, Germany’s
index (CPI) year-over-year change was 10.0%. This was a modest decrease in the inflation
rate from the +10.4% seen in October 2022. In November 2022, food prices increased by
21.1% compared with November 2021. This inflation rate is more than twice as high as
the rate of general price inflation. The annual rate of inflation for food has been steadily
climbing since January (October 2022: +20.3%). In November of 2022, prices increased
across the board for all types of food. Edible fats and oils had the most significant price
increase at 41.5%; dairy products and eggs increased by 34.0%; bread and cereals increased
by 21.1%; vegetables increased by 21.1% [83] (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Consumer price indices in Germany (2015 = 100). Source: German Federal Statistical
Office [83].
In Spain, cereals and animal feed supply shortages from Ukraine directly impact
producer pricing as the production of pigs is heavily reliant on grains and corn supplied
lso harming livestock farmers’ profitability. Altfrom Ukraine. In this industry, inflation is also harming livestock
farmers’ profitability.
items’
Although producers attempt to agree with shops to decrease finished items’ prices, meat
prices will undoubtedly rise due to import constraints of wheat and corn finished items’
prices and meat prices will undoubtedly rise due to import constraints of wheat and
corn [29].
For instance, Hungary is emerging as a new inflation hotspot due to the highest
food price hikes among the EU’s member states [84]. Despite producing most of the
grain supplies it needs domestically, Hungary imports little wheat from Russia or Ukraine.
However, the disruption in global value chains is reflected in increased food prices. Further,
similar to other EU nations, Hungary is impacted by fertilizer supply problems caused by
halted exports from Russia, the world’s largest supplier. This situation is exacerbated by
businesses’ difficulties in sustaining their production capabilities as energy costs climb [29].
Accordingly, during November 2022, food price increases were 40% more than the EU
average. Bread, cheese, and eggs have all seen price increases of over 90% from the same
time in 2021, with egg costs increasing by over 92%. Consequently, the government has
indicated it would add eggs and potatoes to the list of five items for which price controls
will be implemented [84].
The persistent and significant uncertainty surrounding the ongoing high inflation
raises the question of how these affect European households’ finances, purchasing power,
and socio-economic situation. Rising energy and food prices are already generating high
societal costs in terms of decreased buying power and are anticipated to exacerbate material
deprivation, poverty, and social exclusion throughout the EU [31]. It is estimated that in
2021, 95.4 million people in the EU (21.7% of the population) were vulnerable to poverty or
social exclusion (livelihood poverty, extreme material and social deprivation, or living in a
household with low labor intensity) [85]. The ongoing inflation imposes significant welfare
and social costs on European society. The socio-economic ramifications of the current
situation are notably unequal throughout the EU, owing to considerable disparities in price
Sustainability 2023, 15, 4745
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trends and spending patterns among member states and demographic divisions. Prospects
are especially bleak in several central and eastern European nations, where low-income
families and vulnerable groups (such as large households, rural populations, children, and
the elderly) face heightened financial difficulty and social exclusion risks. At the EU level,
inflation has raised the cost of living for median families by around 10%, the incidence of
material and social deprivation by approximately 2%, and the rate of energy poverty and
absolute monetary poverty by about 5%. The related welfare consequences are predicted
to be several times greater in selected member states and among vulnerable populations,
presumably widening existing inequalities in poverty and social exclusion throughout the
EU [31].
Consequently, food bank use is rising throughout Europe, as the region’s poorest, who
spend a more significant percentage of their income on energy and food, are struck the
hardest by the region’s most tremendous inflation in a generation. Charities from Spain to
Latvia estimate a 20% to 30% rise in demand over last year, with a further increase expected
this winter. People accessing the national food bank in Bulgaria, one of the poorest nations
in the EU, increased by three-quarters between September and October 2022 [86]. However,
in many countries, the organizations that manage the food banks face increased operational
expenses, which endangers their operations. For instance, food banks in Germany are
busier than ever, with empty shelves, high pricing, and more people in need. There is also a
scarcity of donations and volunteers [87]. In the UK, donations to food banks are declining
due to rising living costs, but demand increases as inflation continues to increase and
people have difficulty buying vital food products. Amid a cost-of-living crisis, when more
than a quarter of all UK households report struggling financially, families’ priorities are
saving money for food shopping needs. Contrarily, more than half of food bank donations
have dropped [88,89]. Furthermore, people oppose cost-of-living raises using various
means, including street protests and strikes, in several nations [90].
3.1.3. Utilization
This pillar tracks anthropometric and other measures of people’s ability to use calories;
related measures include wasting, stunting, and low weight among children. Russia’s
war in Ukraine harmed the food utilization pillar, resulting in a lack of nutritional variety
and malnutrition.
In addition to the 780 to 811 million people who experienced chronic hunger in 2020,
FAO predicts that, in 2022 and 2023, there will be an additional 7.6 million to 13.1 million undernourished people due to Russia’s war in Ukraine [18]. The nutritional variety
substantially impacts EU citizens’ health [26]. Since healthy variety or dietary diversity
is a fundamental requirement for people to obtain all essential nutrients, it can be used
as one of the core indicators for examining food habits and the productivity of people.
Hence, chronic hunger in the EU is associated with undernourishment, indicative of a
productivity decline.
3.1.4. Stability
When the previous three pillars are in order, this pillar ensures the stability of supply
and access over time [91]. The main issues impeding the stability pillar of food security are
higher energy prices, rising interest rates, and political turmoil. As a result of higher food
and energy prices, farmers from competing nations, such as the United States and Brazil,
may cover any supply shortages created by the war in Ukraine. However, higher energy
prices make some food products, mainly corn, sugar, and oilseeds/vegetable oils, more
appealing for bioenergy production, such as ethanol or biodiesel. This could raise food
prices to their energy parity equivalents [23].
Meanwhile, the increased costs and shortages will significantly impact food assistance
for vulnerable nations. According to estimates from the World Food Program (WFP) [92],
45% of the population in Ukraine is already concerned about having enough to eat. Furthermore, higher and unstable energy prices were also observed, particularly for natural
Sustainability 2023, 15, 4745
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gas, which is essential for fertilizer production [93]. Due to several factors, including
weather-related interruptions to the supply of coal and renewable energy, prices have been
increasing significantly since 2021 [7].
Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict, Europe’s economic growth forecasts have
been lowered downward, while inflation forecasts have risen. Most current predictions,
which account for increased uncertainty and commodity price shocks, indicate that real
GDP growth in the European Union might fall far below 3% in 2022, a drop of more than
1.3 percentage points from pre-war expectations. Additional supply chain disruptions
and economic penalties are expected to send the European economy into a recession [82].
There has already been a substantial economic impact on European consumers due to
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, posing political risks to incumbent governments. Rising
inflation, higher food prices, and food insecurity result in protests and strikes across
Europe, underscoring growing discontent with skyrocketing living costs and threatening
political turmoil.
As of January 2023, the slowdown in the global economy and fears of a worldwide
recession have contributed to a general lowering of commodity prices. Nevertheless,
commodity prices remain high relative to historical averages, extending the challenges
connected with food security. Lower input costs, especially for fertilizers, are expected to
contribute to a 5% drop in agricultural prices in 2023. Despite these forecasts, prices are
projected to stay higher than pre-pandemic levels. As a result, global inflation will remain
high in 2023 at 5.2% before decreasing to 3.2% in 2024. Although inflation is expected
to decline gradually during 2023, underlying inflationary pressures may become more
persistent [25]. According to the International Monetary Fund [94], global food prices are
anticipated to stay high due to conflict, energy costs, and weather events, despite interest
rate rises marginally easing pricing pressures.
Although the European Central Bank has increased interest rates to combat inflation,
it also anticipates that consumer prices will rise further. Additionally, the depreciation of
the euro and the pound versus the US dollar has placed further pressure on manufacturers
and merchants who must pay their suppliers in US dollars and numerous nations are now
facing a possible recession [90].
3.2. Reshaping EU Food Security Amid the War Crisis
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Parliament adopted a
comprehensive resolution on 24 March 2022, endorsing many of the initiatives included in
the European Commission’s package and calling for an urgent EU action plan to secure
food security both inside and outside the EU [95]. EU leaders endorsed short-term and
medium-term measures at the state levels to protect food security and strengthen the
resilience of food systems. Most actions may be carried out using the Common Agriculture
Policy (CAP). The EU members emphasized the importance of maintaining food supply
security and took some immediate actions (Box 1).
Box 1. Prompt action from the European Union to maintain food safety and build a resilient food
system [96–99].
• EU farmers support a package worth EUR 500 million to safeguard food security and strengthen
the resilience of food systems.
• Reduction of energy import dependency and price shocks through REPowerEU plans.
• Maintaining the EU single market by avoiding restrictions and bans on exports.
• The Fund for European Aid to the Most Deprived (FEAD) provides food and essential material
support worth EUR 3.8 billion.
• Using the new CAP strategic plans to decrease reliance on gas, fuel, and inputs such as pesticides
and fertilizers.
• A unique and temporary exception to enable the cultivation of any crops for food and feed on
fallow land while farmers retain the full amount of the greening payment.
• Specific temporary exemptions from current animal feed import regulations.
Sources: [96–99]
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The conflict is pushing food security challenges to the brink of a global crisis. As the
war continues, several scenarios could affect food security in the EU. The EU food system
is typically vulnerable due to fertilizer import dependency, unreliable grain markets, and
high energy prices. In addition, these factors further exacerbated food insecurity during
the war [100].
Further strategies are needed to safeguard food security and bring resilience to the
food system. The war has exposed the global food system’s fragility, emphasizing the
significance of rebuilding the food system to strengthen resilience to future shocks, crises,
and stressors [101]. As shown in Figure 5, several approaches are required, such as increasing food aid, ensuring fertilizer supply, imposing an energy price cap, initiating a
farmer support package, switching to renewable energy sources for cultivation, changing
individual food behaviors, lifting a trade ban, and political stability.
Figure 5. Actions for ensuring food security and strengthening food system resilience. Source:
developed by authors.
The food availability pillar has been jeopardized during Russia’s armed confrontation
with Ukraine. As a result, the EU needs enough fertilizer at a reasonable price to make
agricultural production more efficient to safeguard the food availability pillar. Maintaining
equity in fertilizer access is a powerful lever for reducing food insecurity concerns in the
short term. In the longer term, fair fertilizer usage must be supplemented with efforts to
guarantee sustainable fertilizer use, ecosystem protection, and emission reductions [102].
However, export restrictions and bans must be avoided to preserve the EU single market.
This will allow the EU and vulnerable countries to maintain a secure food supply.
Food insecurity is the inability to consistently obtain adequate food to maintain an
active and healthy lifestyle. On the contrary, food security can be established only through
easy access to food, which the war has already impacted. The EU member states should
impose a price cap on food to prevent adverse effects from market anomalies. Consequently,
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food would be more affordable and accessible to the EU people. In addition, the government
needs to increase food aid to support the most vulnerable citizens in the EU. Furthermore,
price caps can reduce inflation rates in the EU, which can promote food accessibility.
Several measures can be taken to ensure food utilization, including minimizing food
waste and loss, eating a healthy diet, or recycling food. Foods derived from plants are
transformed into culinary creations that satisfy hunger, provide nutrients, and alleviate
obesity. Indeed, adopting plant-based diets across Europe may boost food resilience in the
face of the Russia–Ukraine war [27].
Households must always have access to adequate food to be food secure. In case
of a sudden shock, such as a climatic or economic crisis or a war, they should not risk
losing access to food. The armed conflict involving Russia in Ukraine impacts food stability
in the EU and beyond. This situation requires a reduction in the interest rate to reduce
food import prices and a reduction in Value-Added Tax (VAT), which is an alternative
solution. Energy price caps protect consumers who default on basic energy tariffs from
their suppliers. Putting a cap on energy prices ensures that businesses and individuals will
pay a fair price, limiting food inflation, import costs, and retail prices.
The significant trade-related impact of the war causes an increase in commodity prices.
Indeed, energy, food products, and metals are three major commodities impacted by the
war. Consequently, the significant price hike affects global markets and supply chains.
Furthermore, commodity price hikes coupled with higher inflation rates on a global scale
could result in changes in demand because people are unable or unwilling to make the
usual food purchases.
In the context of the Russia–Ukraine war, to enhance the resilience of food systems
against future crises, we have outlined five key initiatives that will help global policymakers,
governments, and researchers to minimize the impact of food insecurity in the EU:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Food prices will rise due to higher energy costs since fertilizers and transportation
costs will also increase. As a result, renewable energy sources must be adopted by EU
farmers to lower the cost of agricultural output.
The governments in the EU should impose an energy price cap to stagnate price
volatility. For instance, the Hungarian government has set energy and food price caps
amid soaring inflation.
Monetary policy should remain on track to restore price stability, while fiscal policy should strive to reduce cost-of-living pressures while remaining appropriately
restrictive in line with monetary policy [31].
The war might also cause further disruptions to global supply chains, making international trade even more challenging. Export restrictions and bans should be avoided to
preserve the EU single market.
The war may have political repercussions as well. For instance, increased energy costs
could result in instability and violence in society and politics. Therefore, EU leaders
must provide adequate food aid to their citizens.
Furthermore, in the short term, measures aimed at preserving and expanding trade
routes from Ukraine, enabling greater food production in vulnerable countries, and reducing harmful consumption in the EU are most adapted to addressing the present issues.
Although, the food crisis causes immediate concerns, it also highlights systemic issues
in the European and global food systems. As highlighted by Galanakis [14] “The pressing challenges induced by climate change, global warming, the COVID-19 pandemic,
and the Russian-Ukrainian war merge to conclude that the food sector needs an urgent
transformation toward sustainability and resilience.”
While short-term solutions may mitigate the crisis’ negative effect, a long-term and
systemic approach is required to strengthen its resilience [102]. As the European Commission [103] outlined, improving resilience through minimizing European agriculture’s
reliance on energy, energy-intensive imports, and feed imports is more critical than ever.
Resilience necessitates diverse import sources and market outlets through a solid global
and bilateral trade strategy. Consequently, the Commission has asked member states to
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consider revising their Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) strategic plans to boost the
sector’s resilience, increase renewable energy output, and decrease reliance on synthetic
fertilizers via more sustainable production methods [103]. Overall, addressing food security
challenges in Europe requires a comprehensive approach that involves improving domestic
food production, reducing dependence on food imports, reducing food waste, shifting
to more sustainable diets, and increasing international cooperation while diversifying
trade partnerships.
4. Conclusions
Food systems in Europe are facing several environmental, economic, social, and
health issues. Research that straddles disciplines and innovates at their intersections is
required to effectively address them. This paper aimed to assess the possible impacts of
the war between Russia and Ukraine on food security in European countries. The review
suggests that the implications of war varied among the food security pillars. However, the
prolonged repercussions of the Russian–Ukraine conflict on fertilizer prices will influence
domestic food production by making fertilizers less available and more expensive. As
energy costs and interest rates in the EU continue to climb, food importers will find it
considerably more challenging to fund the cost of food imports, affecting domestic food
prices and, consequently, food accessibility and affordability across the EU. The impacts
on food availability and accessibility can have long-term implications regarding food use
(e.g., dietary diversity) and food system stability and resilience. Indeed, high inflation,
trade restrictions, food price hikes, shortages of fertilizer, and political turmoil can directly
impact the EU’s food security pillars.
The paper contributed to the literature on food security and the war effect by shedding
light on the following facts: (1) lack of fertilizer supplies (determining their price increases),
higher energy prices, trade restrictions, and bans, as well as rising inflation rates increase
food prices and affect the availability and accessibility of food; (2) increasing food price
caps and food aid and limiting the inflation rate can improve food accessibility; (3) it is
possible to protect the food utilization pillar by eating a nutritious diet, diversifying diet,
and promoting food recovery and distribution; (4) social and political unrest and turmoil
can be controlled by lowering interest rates and imposing energy price caps, which secure
food stability pillar.
Further, by adopting a comprehensive analytical approach that considers all four
dimensions of food security, this research has provided a thorough understanding of how
the prolonged Russian–Ukrainian conflict has affected food security in Europe. By assessing
the various drivers and factors contributing to food insecurity, the study has identified the
key challenges facing the food systems in Europe. Furthermore, addressing these complex
challenges requires innovative interdisciplinary research that straddles the boundaries of
different disciplines and innovates at their intersections. This approach can lead to new
knowledge, solutions, and strategies that can help to ensure the sustainability, resilience,
and inclusivity of the food systems in Europe. Moreover, the impact of the conflict on
food security may vary across different regions and countries in Europe, depending on
their level of dependence on agricultural imports, their capacity to produce food locally,
and their vulnerability to food price shocks. This variability adds to the uncertainty in
predicting the impact of the conflict on food security in Europe.
Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of developing effective and efficient
policy solutions based on a shared understanding of the complex and interconnected nature
of Europe’s food security concerns in the context of the war. This might include adopting a
unified strategy for data collection, analysis, and sharing, as well as enacting policy actions
adapted to the individual requirements of the impacted regions and individuals. This study
contributes to the theoretical development of policies that promote sustainable and resilient
food systems, especially in the face of prolonged wars and other geopolitical issues, by
emphasizing the need for inter-European collaboration.
Sustainability 2023, 15, 4745
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This paper does have some limitations. One of the main limitations is the high level of
uncertainty, since the impacts of the war depend not only on the evolution of the conflict
but also on the responses of the EU and single member states. Russia’s current approach to
the conflict in Ukraine will likely prolong the war over the next few years and Europe’s
ability to survive a food crisis will be pushed to its limits. The EU will have a more
robust long-term stance toward Russia if it can continue to be united and successfully
coordinated. Although we have suggested risk-reduction methods, resolving the situation
would necessitate a thorough re-assessment of the EU’s food security and agri-food systems
over the following years.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.F.R. and T.B.H.; methodology, M.F.R., T.B.H., H.E.B.
and A.R.; validation, M.F.R.; formal analysis, M.F.R., H.E.B. and A.R.; writing—original draft preparation, M.F.R., T.B.H. and H.E.B.; writing—review and editing, M.F.R., T.B.H., H.E.B., A.R. and D.R.;
visualization, M.F.R.; supervision, H.E.B. and A.R. All authors have read and agreed to the published
version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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