Turkey-Armenia Relations

The current political-military puzzle in the Middle East and in Eurasia cannot be resolved without an analysis of Turkey's role in this huge area and its interaction with other concerned actors. This article discusses the possible changes, shifts, and developments, as well as gains versus losses, in the relationship between Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. It does so within the context of a changing security environment in the broader region. The analysis of this relationship provides a good example of the failed attempt to implement two important principles which introduce Turkey's differentiated approach to its neighbors. On the one hand, Turkey was demonstrating (and at some point, was imitating) a readiness to "normalize its history" in particular with Armenia and the Armenians. On the other hand, Turkey could "become politically powerful again only if it utilized the 'strategic depth' of its neighborhood, developing better ties with those Muslim neighbors."1 Turkish-Azerbaijani relations should contribute to this approach. However, the developments in the triangle Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan become even more complicated if a psychological factor, which influences their bilateral and multilateral relations, is acknowledged. Hence, this relationship must be viewed as a "knot" without any chance to be untangled in the foreseeable future.

This research does not pretend to help fill the big and complex gap in Armenia and Turkey relations, and provide solutions. Instead, this paper seeks to construct a better framework for understanding current domestic dynamics and Turkey’s foreign policy since 2015, based on in-depth interviews, meetings in Ankara and collected data by shedding some analytical light on current trends in Turkey. The aim is to bring expert-level opinions from Turkey to the Armenian table of analysis and debates, and have a more inclusive and comprehensive picture. The choice of the year 2015 is somewhat symbolic, although politically important as well (at least, for the Armenian side), and helps localize Turkey in a given time-frame between 2015 and the upcoming elections of the Turkish president in 2019. To (help) better understand Turkey and its multiple layers, this paper pursues a threefold endeavor: (1) to conduct a field-research through tête-à-tête meetings with Ankara-based opinions makers, scholars, academics, think-tanks, the media, diplomats and politicians, and the civil society representatives, and describe, explore and analyze current dynamics of Turkey’s domestic political realm and Turkish foreign policy directly and indirectly related to Armenia; (2) to produce a better analytical framework and an outcome-oriented paper for journalists, experts and policy-makers in Armenia; and (3) to strongly advocate for a prejudice-free approach among journalists, experts, analysts, and politicians while exploring and examining a given country’s (in this case, Turkey’s) policies considered as hostile.

Turkish-Armenian relations have very long history. After sixteen frozen years, two countries tried to accelerate their relations in 2008. The improvements of the formal relations between Turkey and Armenia have affected by means of official and nonofficial diplomatic ties, by governmental and nongovernmental actors and by internal and external pressures on both states. After prolonged conflicts between the two states, mutual negotiations started at this year because of normalization effort between the two states. Two countries started to talk even opening the borders, which closed for sixteen years. Both Armenia and Turkey are participants of major worldwide organizations and settlements on trade and transport. However, the potential of these instruments for enhancing cooperation between Armenia and Turkey has been undervalued and little investigated. As strongly argued in the paper, the normalization of bilateral relations is not difficult for two sides, because of historical common ties between the two nations. In the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia, it is expected that Russian factor and the Eurasian Economic Union will have a significant position upcoming decades. It is also foreseen that the relations between these two countries will become stronger with the development of the Eurasian Economic Union in the following years.

2013

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the relations between the Armenians and the Turks entered a new phase with the establishment of an independent Republic of Armenia. The inter-state interactions that followed took place in a context that also included regional players, the international community, as well as the organised Armenian Diaspora. This thesis argues that the difficulty to come to a lasting regional peace can be explained by (1) the relative weakness on the part of the Armenian state vis-à-vis Turkey, as well as (2) the unstable domestic political situation in Turkey in the 1990s coupled with the ineffective foreign policy of the AKP government in power in Ankara since 2002. A few schools of international relations theory are employed to assess the relationship: realism, liberalism, institutionalism, geopolitics, and constructivism. Given the differences in power and interests of the two states, the resulting asymmetrical relations are best explained using a constructivist approach, which helps shape a concluding section on the national psychology that underlies the interaction between Armenians and Turks, including narratives of identity and how they inform policy. The thesis concludes that, as a complex issue, with the involvement of the United States, the international community, and even with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict not too far removed, and also with neither the Republic of Armenia nor the Armenian Diaspora having enough clout to shift policy one way or another, Turkey remains the factor with the greatest potential to influence proceedings. It is domestic political considerations and the consequential unclear positions and self-contradictory actions on the part of Ankara that have gone the farthest to maintain the instability and anti-climaxes characteristic of the Armenia-Turkey story between 1991 and 2010. And therefore it will be changes within Turkey itself that will bear the greatest consequences for the future of Armenia-Turkey relations. (June, 2013)

TEPAV Policy Brief , 2009

2010

Proceedings of the Symposium Organized by AVİM on 30 April 2015

The main dimensions of Armenia’s foreign and security policy, 2013

This policy brief surveys the core principles and objectives of Armenia's foreign policy, which is influenced by the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict with Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani-Turkish blockade and isolation of Armenia, Turkey's unwillingness to settle relations with Armenia without preconditions, Armenia's dependence on Georgian transit routes and its excessive dependence on Russia in strategic areas of its economy. To deal with these negative influences, Armenia's foreign policy includes a military-strategic alliance with Russia, a regional partnership with Iran, and deepening relations with the EU, U.S. and NATO.

Foreword O n 16 December 2015, AVİM (Center for Eurasian Studies) in collaboration with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, organized a symposium titled "Projections for the Future of the Turkish-Armenian Relations".