The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist Aspirations Zenonas Tziarras REIMAGINING THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SERIES: PCC REPORT /2018 Zenonas Tziarras is a Research Consultant at PRIO Cyprus Centre focusing on Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics. He holds a BA in Mediterranean Studies and International Relations from the University of the Aegean (Greece), an MA in International Relations and Strategic Studies from the University of Birmingham (UK), and a PhD in Politics and International Studies from the University of Warwick (UK). He has worked as adjunct lecturer at the University of Cyprus, UCLan Cyprus and the University of Warwick, completed a Post-Doctoral Fellowship in the Department of Social and Political Sciences of the University of Cyprus, and collaborated with a number of think tanks in Cyprus and abroad on matters pertaining to foreign policy, international security, Turkey, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, Zenonas has attended specialization courses in International Security at the University of Delhi, India, training courses in Leadership and Conflict Resolution at Koç University, Turkey, and has a certificate in Conflict Management & Mediation Skills. He is a member in the editorial board of New Middle Eastern Studies and, among other publications, the co-author of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean: Ideological Aspects of Foreign Policy [in Greek]. THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN: BETWEEN POWER STRUGGLES AND REGIONALIST ASPIRATIONS Zenonas Tziarras Report 2/2018 Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Hausmanns gate 7 PO Box 9229 Oslo NO-0134 OSLO, Norway Tel. +47 22 54 77 00 Fax +47 22 54 77 01 Email: info@prio.no Web: www.prio.no PRIO encourages its researchers and research affiliates to publish their work in peer-reviewed journals and book series, as well as in PRIO’s own Report, Paper and Policy Brief series. In editing these series, we undertake a basic quality control, but PRIO does not as such have any view on political issues. We encourage our researchers actively to take part in public debates and give them full freedom of opinion. The responsibility and honour for the hypotheses, theories, findings and views expressed in our publications thus rests with the authors themselves. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung 20, Stasandrou, Apt. 401, CY 1060 Nicosia Tel. +357 22377336 Website: www.fescyprus.org The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organizations for which the authors work. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), 2018 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). Within the framework of the PRIO Cyprus Centre Re-Imagining The Eastern Mediterranean Series, this report was co-produced with Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Cyprus ISBN 978-82-7288-919-6 (online) Production and Cover design: Crystal Graphics CONTENTS FOREWORD.......................................................................................................................................................3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 4 ON REGIONALIZATION AND THE IMPORTANCE OF REGIONS .......................................................... 6 ON REGIONALISM ....................................................................................................................................... 10 ON THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN .................................................................................................... 12 AN AMBITIOUS PROJECT OF REGIONALISM? ...................................................................................... 17 EPILOGUE: CONDITIONS FOR REGIONALISM ..................................................................................... 24 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................................................. 28 3 FOREWORD T he Report Series aims to explore the Eastern Mediterranean as a distinct geopolitical space in the context of global and regional transitions. It conceptualizes the Eastern Mediterranean’s new geopolitical identity both historically and theoretically and looks at its security and politico-economic prospects. At the same time, it tracks the main challenges that regional states face, and attempts to re-imagine the patterns of conflict and cooperation by examining the potential of regionalism and inter-state cooperation in various sectors. In doing so, the series makes recommendations about the way forward in addressing important obstacles to further regional cooperation and with regard to the strategy that could be followed towards designing a viable and sustainable regionalism project in the Eastern Mediterranean. The series begins with the conceptualization of the Eastern Mediterranean as a region and the specific sector of the environment as an entry point to discussing a more expanded regional cooperation. It then moves to other policy sectors and matters pertaining to the Eastern Mediterranean state policies and interests as well as to the role of greater powers. Dr. Harry Tzimitras Director, PRIO Cyprus Centre 4 INTRODUCTION T he new millennium has been marked by great geopolitical shifts at both the global and the regional level. American hegemony has been under reconfiguration while other nation-states have risen to great power. The greater Middle East has been central to these changes, i.e., the new global balances of power and the emerging spheres of influence. Unlike during the 1990s and the early 2000s, the United States (US) is no longer uncontested in the broader area of the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean (MEEM): Russia is now taking a stance, especially in the Syrian conflict, thus claiming an agendasetting role and a geopolitical foothold. At the same time, the discovery of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean, post-Arab Spring security concerns, and the formation of energyand security-oriented inter-state partnerships (i.e., Israel-Cyprus-Greece; Greece-CyprusEgypt, etc.), have greatly affected the geopolitical landscape of the region. Taking into account the power changes at the global level and their impact on the regional level (particularly the Eastern Mediterranean), it is here argued, in line with a small but growing body of literature,1 that the Eastern Mediterranean should be seen as a distinct geopolitical space. I begin this examination by looking at the transition of the international system to multipolarity. As explained below, one of the outcomes of this transition is the regionalization of the international system and the growing importance of the regional level of analysis. Moreover, regionalism is defined, in fact, as a response to the transitions in the international system; I also explore how this might apply to the Eastern Mediterranean. 1 See e.g., Spyridon N. Litsas and Aristotle Tziampiris, eds., The Eastern Mediterranean in Transition: Multipolarity, Politics and Power (New York: Routledge, 2015); Spyridon N. Litsas and Aristotle Tziampiris, eds.,The New Eastern Mediterranean: Theory, Politics and States in a Volatile Era (Cham: Springer, 2019); Constantinos Adamides and Odysseas Christou, “Energy Security and the Transformation of Regional Securitization Relations in the Eastern Mediterranean,” in Societies in Transition: The Social Implications of Economic, Political and Security Transformations, ed. Savvas Katsikides and Pavlos Koktsidis (New York: Springer, 2015); Constantinos Adamides and Odysseas Christou , “Beyond Hegemony: Cyprus, Energy Securitization and the Emergence of New Regional Security Complexes,” in The Eastern Mediterranean in Transition: Multipolarity, Politics and Power, ed. Spyridon N. Litsas and Aristotle Tziampiris (Surrey: Ashgate, 2015); Filippos Proedrou, “Re-Conceptualising the Energy and Security Complex in the Eastern Mediterranean,” The Cyprus Review 24, no. 2 (2012); Zenonas Tziarras, “Israel-Cyprus-Greece: A ‘Comfortable’ Quasi-Alliance,” Mediterranean Politics 21, no. 3 (2016); Andreas Stergiou, Kivanç Ulusoy, and Menahem Blondheim, eds., Conflict & Prosperity: Geopolitics and Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean (New York: Israel Academic Press, 2017); Evaghoras L. Evaghorou, “Turbulent Times in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Struggle for Power,” Mediterranean Quarterly 29, no. 1 (2018). Introduction 5 Ultimately, what I examine is whether the Eastern Mediterranean as a distinct region (or sub-region) has been experiencing processes of regionalism with regard to different areas of cooperation. In the final section, I argue that the synergies currently under development in the Eastern Mediterranean could be seen as the first step towards a regionalist project (or “proto-regionalism”), highlighting, however, that the realization of such a project faces multiple limitations and is highly conditional on a number of factors that need to be addressed first. A more gradual, well-thought-out and comprehensive approach should be followed—one that would also address important regional challenges— if the involved actors want to invest in a stable and sustainable regionalist project. 6 ON REGIONALIZATION AND THE IMPORTANCE OF REGIONS T he 21st century is a time of important and fast-paced geopolitical changes, including a reshuffling of the post-Cold War global order and thus of the structure of the international system. New players are rising fast and they are challenging the primacy of the US. As Randall Schweller writes, the more these emerging powers “gain influence around the world,” the more the US “suffer[s] a corresponding loss of global influence.”2 Apart from Asia, where China has become the main source of concern for the US, the developments in the Middle East, with the Syrian war and the re-emergence of Russia, are perhaps the most indicative of this change.3 As these shifts take place, middle powers and smaller states have been able to exploit the growing power vacuums in different regions of the world and further their own agendas independently from the interests of their great power partners or allies.4 In addition, given that the post-Cold War order has been less about global-scale rivalries and influences, “regionspecific dynamics have been allowed to develop into the primary venues within which most states securitize and de-securitize actors and issues.”5 In other words, the international order has been going through two interconnected processes: a) decentralization and b) regionalization. A decentralized international order (or “decentered globalism”) is that in which “no singlepower–or cluster of powers–is pre-eminent”; the international system is no longer centered in the Western pole of hegemony and power diffuses across the world, most notably towards Asia.6 On the other hand, regionalization, a largely contested concept, is here seen as a sideeffect of the power and economic transitions in the international system; and a response to 2 3 4 5 6 Randall L. Schweller, Maxwell’s Demon and the Golder Apple: Global Discord in the New Millenium (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014), 79. See, Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest, 2nd ed. (London and New York: Penguin Books, 2011); Anna Borshchevskaya, Russia in the Middle East: Motives, Consequences, Prospects, vol. Policy Focus 142 (Washington: The Washington Institute for Near East Studies, 2016). Schweller, 92-93; Barry Buzan, “The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture. A World Order without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism,” International Relations 25, no. 1 (2011): 16. Derrick Frazier and Rober Stewart-Ingersoll, “Regional Powers and Security: A Framework for Understanding Order within Regional Security Complexes,” European Journal of International Relations 16, no. 4 (2010): 734. Barry Buzan and George Lawson, “Capitalism and the Emergent World Order,” International Affairs 90, no. 1 (2014): 72, 75; see also, Buzan.(2011). On Regionalization and the Importance of Regions 7 globalization “both as a fallback against the possible failure of globalization, and as a strategy to acquire more weight to operate in a globalized world.”7 In this sense, regionalization is linked to the processes of globalization, while at the same time it “reflects the growing multipolarity of the international system, accommodates new ideas and actors and alleviates the problem of cooperation in wider multilateral fora…; it also builds on a regional store of knowledge and resources and reduces burdens on the United Nations and major powers.”8 It should be emphasized that there is still much disagreement over whether the international system has reached mutlipolarity, as it would be rather far-fetched to argue with certainty that “there are too many powers to permit any of them to draw clear and fixed lines between allies and adversaries and too few to keep the effects of defection low” – as one definition of multipolarity posits.9 For instance, one could make the case that there are still clear-cut alliances in the world, not least along the lines of ‘West vs East.’ And yet, the example of MEEM and countries such as Greece, Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt, to name a few, shows that the foreign policy behaviour and international orientation of states is becoming more fluid in terms of their attachment to traditional alliances. In this light, it would be safer and more accurate to argue that although we are today closer to multipolarity than ever before in the post-Cold War era, the international system is still in a process of transition. Within the framework of this transition, great powers (other than the dominant superpower, the US)10 acquire more importance as they have more space to exert their power and influence, at least within their own regions and, more often than not, beyond them (see e.g., Russia, China, India, Brazil, Germany, etc.). We thus have a phenomenon sometimes called “regional hegemons” or “regional superpowers.”11 In a nutshell, the global power diffusion in question creates international systemic vacuums in which such powers thrive and regional dynamics grow in significance and prominence within the structure of the international system, thus rendering the regional level of analysis more salient and central. To be sure, there are still globallevel concerns such as nuclear proliferation,12 but as the “salience of military–political security 7 8 9 10 11 12 Buzan (2011), 17. Louise Fawcett, “The Regionalization of Security: A Comparative Analysis,” in Effective Multilateralism, ed. Jochen Prantl (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), 44; see also, Zenonas Tziarras, “The Changing World Order and the ‘Acceleration of History’: The Middle East Example,” in Acceleration of History: War, Conflict, and Politics, ed. Alexios Alecou (London: Lexington Book, 2016), 20-26. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Long Grove: Waveland Press, Inc., 2010), 168. According to Buzan (2011), superpowers are those that can exert various types of powers globally, whereas great powers are those that can only exert power beyond only one region. Nevertheless there are powers that are not superpowers but that can exert power over more than one region, such as Russia that can arguably exert at least some power in Europe, the Middle East, and the post-Soviet space. Barry Buzan, “A Leader without Followers? The United States in World Politics after Bush,” International Politics 45 (2008): 565-68; Dale C. Walton, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century: Multipolarity and the Revolution in Strategic Perspective (London: Routledge, 2007), 6-7; Buzan (2011), “The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture. A World Order without Superpowers: Decentred Globalism,” 4-5. David A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan, “The New Regionalism in Security Affairs,” in Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World, ed. David A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan (Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997), 7. 8 The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist issues amongst the great powers”13 declines, various sectors of the contemporary security agenda (e.g., economic, environmental, societal, energy) come to dominate regional security as well.14 The Regional Level In this context, it is important to first determine what makes a region, thus highlighting the importance of the regional level of analysis. According to Joseph Nye, an international region is made of “a limited number of states linked by a geographical relationship and by a degree of mutual interdependence.”15 From another point of view, Barry Buzan and Ole Waever coined the concept of Regional Security Complex (RSC) and defined it as “a set of units whose major processes of securitisation, desecuritisation, or both are so interlinked that their security problems cannot reasonably be analysed or resolved apart from one another.”16 From this perspective, geographic proximity or adjacency “is potent for security because many threats travel more easily over short distances than over long ones.”17 Moreover, Buzan and Waver go on to argue that, “Anarchy plus the distance effect plus geographical diversity yields a pattern of regionally based clusters, where security interdependence is markedly more intense between the states inside such complexes than between states inside the complex and those outside it.”18 As such, security interactions within a RSC are, more often than not, little affected by developments in other regions. In his review of the literature on regions, Aristotle Tziampiris concludes that, a region can be defined by the simultaneous existence of geographical territory that might include sub-regions but must include a number of states in proximity, some of which may constitute the region’s core; a security dimension that could include the existence of a Regional Security Complex; a degree of cohesion; internal and external recognition; a common historical background, possibly economic interdependence and perhaps some unique characteristics. Depending to what degree a region fulfills the above criteria, it could be judged to be a “strong” or “weak” region.19 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Barry Buzan, “Regional Security Complex Theory in the Post-Cold War World,” in Theories of New Regionalism: A Palgrave Reader, ed. Frederik Söderbaum and Timothy M. Shaw (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), 140-141. Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 72. Joseph Nye, International Regionalism: Readings (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1968), vi-vii. Buzan, “Regional Security Complex Theory in the Post-Cold War World,” 44. Ibid., 45. Ibid., 46. Aristotle Tziampiris, “The New Eastern Mediterranean as a Regional Subsystem,” in The New Eastern Mediterranean: Theory, Politics and States in a Volatile Era, ed. Spyridon N. Litsas and Aristotle Tziampiris (Cham: Springer, 2019), 6. On Regionalization and the Importance of Regions 9 For the purposes of this report, it is accepted that, at the bare minimum, a geographical region is defined by a set of states in close proximity to each other that are interrelated and involved in some – cooperative or conflictual – interaction; namely, that their interests are linked in one way or the other. However, two policy dimensions call for particular attention to the regional level and intraregional relations: a) (in)security and b) cooperation (i.e., the degree of interdependence). As Tziampiris’s definition shows, these dimensions can affect the character of a region, its importance and future dynamics. The two dimensions are further discussed below in the specific context of the Eastern Mediterranean, following a necessary discussion on regionalism and its place in the emerging international order. 10 ON REGIONALISM A s seen thus far, the decentralization and regionalization of the international system creates the need for more regional approaches to managing the geopolitical order, peace, stability, and security.20 In this vein, Louise Fawcett argues that regionalism can be seen as the “product and driver of regionalization,”21 with regionalism defined as a formal, state-led process of building “regional or subregional clusters” that aim at improving the capabilities of states within a region “to stand up to the unprecedented proliferation of new global challenges”; as such it also “outlines cooperation in the economic, institutional, defense, or security fields, occurring at a political decision-making level.”22 In addition, the “policy and project” nature of regionalism in the contemporary world encompasses the aspect of state-society relations and acknowledges the agency of non-state actors in the success of regionalist projects, despite the predominant role of the state.23 Against this background, if regionalization is understood as a spontaneous and rather informal process that may contribute to the emergence of regions and, in turn, of “regional groups, actors and organizations,” it can be also said that it both precedes and flows from regionalism (see Figure 1).24 And if regionalization is more of a side-effect of global transitions, regionalism is a conscious,25 state-led effort to capitalize on regionalization and advance the agency and interests of smaller states thus enhancing, by extension, a more decentralized international order. 20 21 22 23 24 25 Lake and Morgan, 6-7. Fawcett (2013), 43. Matteo Legrenzi and Marina Calculli, “Regionalism and Regionalization in the Middle East: Options and Challenges,” International Peace Institute Issue Brief (2013): 1. Louise Fawcett, “Exploring Regional Domains: A Comparative History of Regionalism,” International Affairs 80, no. 3 (2004): 433. Ibid. It should be noted that the concepts of regionalization and regionalism are subjects of much debate in the literature and, as is often the case with such academic discussions, there is not much consensus as far as their definition, types and generations are concerned. See e.g., Charalambos Tsardanidis, “The Bsec: From New Regionalism to Inter-Regionalism?,” Agora Without Frontiers 10, no. 4 (2005); Fawcett, “Exploring Regional Domains: A Comparative History of Regionalism.”; Fawcett, “The Regionalization of Security: A Comparative Analysis.”; Rick Fawn, “‘Regions’ and Their Study: Wherefrom, What for and Whereto?,” Review of International Studies 35, no. 1 (2009). On Regionalism 11 Figure 1 Importantly, in contrast to regionalization, a regionalist project also entails some form of institutionalization of interstate arrangements and agreements – mainly economic – at the regional level. Examples of regionalism, be they successful or less so, abound and include the League of Arab States, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the African Union (AU), the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) among others. Of course, the most successful of all is the European Union (EU), which started as a primarily economic regionalist project and gradually transformed into a politico-economic organization that over the past years has also tried to develop a more coherent security policy. Undoubtedly, there are conflicting views among EU member-states as to whether the Union should pursue more integration towards federalism (supranationalism) or maintain a more inter-governmental character in conjunction with further enlargement.26 However, despite the limitations, the EU’s success in developing supranational institutions and pursuing economic and political integration is undisputed and unprecedented; for this reason it is often seen as a model for other regionalist projects.27 To move, therefore, from regionalization to regionalism, political will for a state-led process as well as institutional structures are necessary. The extent to which the Eastern Mediterranean is equipped for such a future is examined below. 26 27 See e.g., Christopher J. Bickerton, Dermot Hodson, and Uwe Puetter, “The New Intergovernmentalism: European Integration in the Post-Maastricht Era,” Journal of Common Market Studies 53, no. 4 (2015). Fawn, 18-19. 12 ON THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN T he Eastern Mediterranean is today an example of the broader dynamics of international systemic regionalization, with a number of states becoming stronger or finding more space to manoeuvre in the absence of tight great-power control, often at the expense of the interests of their traditional allies – e.g., Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and Greece. As Spyridon Litsas argues, The franticness of a multipolar system with almost every state contained in the systemic roller coaster of antagonism gives a central position to various regions worldwide manifesting a significant tendency to friction such as the Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.28 These developments warrant a rethinking of the Eastern Mediterranean space in particular as a potentially distinct geopolitical region, while assessing the reconfiguration of great-power influence over it and the repercussions for regional relations. The Eastern Mediterranean as a region is not a new notion as such, for it has been repeatedly used in the past. A case in point is the usage of the term by the British Empire, at least in the 19th and 20th centuries. British archives often cite the Eastern Mediterranean when referring to the Empire’s operations in the region.29 Not only that, but it seems that the Eastern Mediterranean as a space had a special place in the colonial-strategic calculations of the British. For example, in the 1910s they established the Eastern Mediterranean Special Intelligence Bureau (EMSIB) for intelligence gathering and counter-intelligence purposes with operations in Turkey, Syria and Cyprus,30 and also used it for information exchange and joint operations 28 29 30 Spyridon N. Litsas, “War, Peace and Stability in the Era of Multipolarity: What Lies at the End of the Systemic Rainbow,” in The Eastern Mediterranean in Transition: Multipolarity, Politics and Power, ed. Spyridon N. Litsas and Aristotle Tziampiris (Surrey and Burlington: Ashgate, 2015), 15. See e.g., “Governorship of Cyprus” press notice by Colonial Office Information Department, 26 September 1955, FO371/117662, The National Archives of the UK. See also, William Mallinson, Cyprus: A Modern History (London and New York: I.B. Tauris, 2005), 16, 19, 20, 25, 26; The Tripartite Conference on the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus Held by the Governments of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Greece and Turkey [with Relevant Documents], (London: H.M. Stationery Office, Great Britain Parliament, 1955). Andrekos Varnava, “The Impact of the Cypriot Contribution During the Great War on Colonial Society and Loyalties/Disloyalties to the British Empire,” First World War Studies 8, no. 1: 22. On the Eastern Mediterranean 13 with the French.31 These activities took place in the context of a broader intelligence structure in the area of the greater Middle East that aimed to “monitor the threat from the east” and eventually “obtain current military intelligence on western Turkey prior to the Gallipoli campaign in 1915.”32 And yet the term “Eastern Mediterranean” was often used interchangeably with that of “Middle East,”33 while the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean was not really seen independently from strategic imperatives in the Middle East, or the rest of the Empire to the East for example. As Robert Holland and Diana Markides argue, …Britain’s impulse towards a stake in continental paramountcy was partially displaced into a quest to make the Mediterranean into an English lake. The force of gravitation exerted by the significance of the route to its Indian Empire meant that for Great Britain the eastern portions of that lake [i.e. the Eastern Mediterranean] came to possess a special resonance.34 This is to say that, despite the name of the Eastern Mediterranean being used, the concept was quite different to that of today. Similarly, towards the end of the Cold War the US believed that dealing with terrorism and radicalism in the Middle East as well as with Soviet regional influence and access to the Mediterranean (particularly through Syria and Libya) depended “in significant part on American capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean.”35 From the perspective of imperial powers (particularly Great Britain) or superpowers such as the US and the Soviet Union, the Eastern Mediterranean was seen as a strategic space, not so much because of its own geopolitical or geo-economic importance as such but because of its role in allowing the pursuit of greater strategic interests in the Middle East and beyond. In other words, it was an area that needed to be secured or controlled in order for something more important to be achieved. By extension, the Eastern Mediterranean has been a space for clashing spheres of influence among great powers – be they imperial or otherwise – but never before was it seen as a space with its own geopolitical identity that stemmed from the relations and interaction among the countries that constitute it. And that is the particularity of today’s Eastern Mediterranean: it is not only important to external powers as a means to an end; it has its own importance and value. 31 32 33 34 35 Martin Thomas, Empires of Intelligence: Security Services and Colonial Disorder after 1914 (Berkeley, Los Angeles and London: University of California Press, 2008), 37. Yigal Sheffy, British Military Intelligence in the Palestine Campaign 1914-1918 (London and New York: Routledge, 1998), 323. Mallinson, ibid. Robert Holland and Diana Markides, The British and the Hellenes: Struggles for Mastery in the Eastern Mediterranean 18501960 (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 6. Martin Indyk, “Introduction,” in Strategy and Defense in the Eastern Mediterranean: An American-Israeli Dialogue, ed. Robert Satloff (Washington: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1987), 1. 14 The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist One could argue that it was the discovery of hydrocarbons and the increased relations between regional states that led analysts to pay unprecedented attention to the political, economic and security relations within this limited geographical area, despite the fact that the Eastern Mediterranean has not been commonly perceived or analysed as a distinct region.36 Interestingly, the Middle East’s abundance in oil has been at least partly the reason for great power interest in the Middle East since the early 20th century,37 and for the bridgehead role that the Eastern Mediterranean acquired back then. Roughly a century later, at a very different historical juncture and under very different international circumstances, natural gas becomes Eastern Mediterranean’s “oil”, giving rise to a new security reality at the regional level. As a result, the current view in Washington has evolved into recognizing the security and economic threats that challenge the region’s own stability even as it focuses on the natural gas discoveries off the coasts of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt that “could boost regional economic prospects” but are, nonetheless, hindered by “a divided Cyprus, historical animosities, as well as a lack of infrastructure connectivity.”38 And all that, while maintaining the superpower perspective that the US “needs a holistic and integrated strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean that will stabilize Europe and shift the regional balance in the Middle East toward the United States.”39 In line with this shifting conception of the Eastern Mediterranean, for example, Filippos Proedrou has characterized it an energy and security complex40 while Constantinos Adamides and Odysseas Christou argue that the Turkey-Israel-Cyprus triangle could be seen as a security sub-complex “at the edge of two RSCs [Europe and the Middle East] and an insulator state [Turkey].”41 For his part, Tziampiris argues, and this report is in agreement, that the Eastern Mediterranean is a Mediterranean sub-region, which according to his definition of regions (as cited previously) can be seen as, 36 37 38 39 40 41 For example, Buzan and Waever (2003) do not consider it to be a distinct regional security complex (RSC) as they categorize some of its countries under the RSC of Europe and other under the RSC of the Middle East. See e.g., Michael T. Klare, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict (New York: Owl Books, 2002), 29-35; Raymond Hinnebusch, The International Politics of the Middle East (Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press, 2003), 35-53. John B. Alternaman et al., Restoring the Eastern Mediterranean as U.S. Strategic Anchor (Lanham, Boulder, New York, London: CSIS, Rowman & Littlefield, 2018), vii. Ibid. A similar approach could be found in the Assistant Secretary of European and Eurasian Affairs of the US State Department Wess Mitchell’s testimony at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. See, Wess Mitchell, “Hearing: U.S. Policy in Europe,” Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation (26 June 2018), https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/062618_Mitchell_Testimony.pdf. Proedrou. Adamides and Christou, “Beyond Hegemony: Cyprus, Energy Securitization and the Emergence of New Regional Security Complexes,” 182. See also, Alper and Kaliber, “Re-Imagining Cyprus: The Rise of Regionalism in Turkey’s Security Lexicon,” in Cyprus: A Conflict at the Crossroads, ed. Thomas Diez and Nathalie Tocci (2013). On the Eastern Mediterranean 15 a regional subsystem with moderate cohesion and economic interdependence that shares a common historical background, high internal and probably lesser external recognition, operates as a kind of border between East and West and has substantial security significance for contemporary international politics. Compared to the Mediterranean as a whole, the Eastern Mediterranean is a “stronger” region.42 As the same author points out, this definition is far from claiming that the Eastern Mediterranean (see Map I) – comprised of Greece, Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, Libya and certain non- or semi-state actors – is an RSC (or a sub-RSC).43 Indeed, more research and theoretical analysis is needed on the Eastern Mediterranean’s place in Regional Security Complex Theory – something that falls outside the scope of this report. Map I: The Eastern Mediterranean Source: https://www.google.com/maps/ 42 43 Tziampiris, 24, 26. Ibid., 23-24. 16 The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist This brings us to another particularity of today’s Eastern Mediterranean: because of its heterogeneity in terms of the states that comprise it,44 it provides the opportunity for geopolitical and diplomatic bridges to be built within it. For instance, with Cyprus and Greece being member-states of the EU and, politically speaking, parts of the “West,” other coastal states of the Eastern Mediterranean such as Israel, Lebanon and Egypt can more easily “access” the EU and the West more broadly, and vice versa. The same happens with political or economic activities in the Eastern Mediterranean undertaken by Russia, China, and the Gulf States. Syria is a good example of how regional and international interests, outside of the Eastern Mediterranean, manifest within it and impact its stability and security. Therefore, certain good relations and geopolitical dynamics that have developed within the Eastern Mediterranean render it politically valuable for both local and external actors, while the region functions as a meeting and often socializing space for various international interests and policies. 44 It encompasses, at least, Turkish, Greek, Arab and Jewish national identities as well as Christian, Jewish and Muslim religious identities. 17 AN AMBITIOUS PROJECT OF REGIONALISM? B eyond the need to re-conceptualize and address the Eastern Mediterranean as a distinct geopolitical space, there is also a pressing need to envision and work towards a regional order that is for the benefit of all actors who share it. In other words, there is need for an approach that would surpass the unintentional and de facto processes (regionalization) that have been influencing the regional order in the Eastern Mediterranean, by looking at the various intentional efforts for cooperation and security management as well (regionalism).45 Conflict and cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean have long been debated, often as two alternative and mutually exclusive paths that the region might follow in the future, even though they more often than not co-exist in international relations, especially in the 21st century.46 Against a historical background marked primarily by conflict and geopolitical competition, cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean has in recent years been promoted as a much more feasible prospect.47 The significant energy discoveries and the revitalized peace process in Cyprus have been two of the driving factors. The Trilateral Partnerships & Areas of Regional Cooperation The so-called “diplomacy of trilateral partnerships” (or “quasi-alliances”),48 that is followed in the area—with Greece and Cyprus as the main initiators—has been perhaps the most important evidence of the growing networks of regional cooperation. Not only in the domain of economy broadly speaking, but that of security and beyond. States like Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Italy have been to one degree or the other part of this project of multileveled cooperation. 43 46 47 48 See e.g., Charles Ellinas, “The Eastern Mediterranean: An Energy Region in the Making,” in The Political and Economic Challenges of Energy in the Middle East and North Africa, ed. David Ramin Jalilvand and Kirsten Westphal (London: Routledge, 2017). Jennifer Sterling-Folker, “Neoclassical Realism and Identity: Peril Despite Profit Accross the Taiwan Strait,” in Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, ed. Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), 104. See e.g., Ayla Gürel, Harry Tzimitras, and Hubert Faustmann, eds., East Mediterranean Hydrocarbons: Geopolitical Perspectives, Markets, and Regional Cooperation, vol. PRIO Cyprus Centre Report 3 (Cyprus: PRIO Cyprus Centre, 2014); Ioannis Grigoriadis, “Energy Discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean: Conflict or Cooperation?,” Middle East Policy XXI, no. 3 (2014); Gareth M. Winrow, “The Anatomy of a Possible Pipeline: The Case of Turkey and Leviathan and Gas Politics in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 18, no. 5 (2016). See e.g., Tziarras, “Israel-Cyprus-Greece: A ‘Comfortable’ Quasi-Alliance.” 18 The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist From an ambitious perspective, these intentional efforts towards a deeper and more integrated regional cooperation could function as the prelude to something more institutionalized and official – a form of regionalism; this is a project that will have a strong security dimension as well. In fact, one could argue that, collectively, the existing trilateral partnerships constitute a kind of a security community as well; that is, a community in which the actors “cannot imagine a war among each other” as their relations and interactions are completely desecuritized.49 The members of a security community often share at least some common threat perceptions,50 as is the case with Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt vis-à-vis Turkey.51 Moreover, the notion of a security community is compatible with the concept of regionalism, given that “well-developed security communities will normally [but not necessarily] become increasingly institutionalised and integrated.”52 By default, these patterns of enmity (and amity) have greatly impacted the security environment in the Eastern Mediterranean. And yet, at the same time, one should look at other types of security concerns, such as energy security, terrorism, refugee and migration waves, environmental problems, economic development, etc.53 Because many of these problems are common to the states of the region, a number of efforts for cooperation have been made, thus bringing many of the countries in question closer together. The most advanced cooperation triangles thus far are those of Cyprus-Greece-Israel, Cyprus-Greece-Egypt, and Cyprus-Greece-Jordan. At a more nascent stage are the triangles of Cyprus-Greece-Lebanon and Cyprus-Greece-Malta (mostly in the domain of shipping and maritime affairs). Only the first two are taken under consideration here since they are the most advanced, while Malta and Jordan fall outside the definition of the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt stand to benefit both from collectively addressing security challenges54 and from economically profiting out of cooperation. The Joint Declarations of 49 50 51 52 53 54 Buzan and Waever, 57. Ibid. More specifically, the evolution of Turkish foreign policy towards a more revisionist behavior challenges the interests of various regional states and plays into their threat perceptions. For example, Greece has had problems with Turkey over issues such as the legal and geopolitical status of the Aegean Sea; the Republic of Cyprus has for almost 45 years been trying to deal with the Turkish occupation and everything that comes with it, while in 2018 Ankara practically disputed Cyprus’s sovereign rights regarding energy developments in the Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zone; Israel has had ups and downs in its relationship with Turkey which does not seem to have very good prospects of full normalization; and Egypt has not had official relations with Turkey since 2013. “Turkey Warns Israel and Egypt over Cyprus,” TRT World (30 July 2018), https://www.trtworld.com/europe/turkey-warns-israel-and-egypt-over-cyprus-19259. Buzan and Waever, 58. See, Ayla Gürel Moran, Harry Tzimitras, and Hubert Faustmann, eds., Global Energy and the Eastern Mediterranean, vol. PCC Report 1/2016 (Oslo, Nicosia, and New York: PRIO Cyprus Center, 2016); Emine Eminel Sülün and Zenonas Tziarras, “Federal Cyprus in the Context of Regional Security,” Berghof Foundation & SeeD Security Dialogue Project - Background Paper (2017). For security challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean see e.g., Thanos Dokos, “The Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf Region in 2020: Alternative Scenarios for the Regional Security Environment,” in Mediterranean 2020: The Future of Mediterranean Security and Politics, ed. Eduard Soler i Lecha and Thanos Dokos (Washington: The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2011); Andrea Prontera and Mariusz Ruszel, “Energy Security in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Middle East Policy 24, no. 3 (2017); Stergiou, Ulusoy, and Blondheim; Sülün and Tziarras; Tziarras, “Israel-Cyprus-Greece: A ‘Comfortable’ Quasi-Alliance.” An Ambitious Project of Regionalism? 19 the two trilateral partnerships clearly state the sectors of existing or aspiring cooperation. By analysing one Joint Declaration of each of the two trilateral partnerships, respectively, five main and overarching sectors or areas of cooperation stand out: a) military-hard security, b) economic, c) energy, d) environmental, and e) cultural-social-political.55 These sectors roughly correspond to Buzan’s categorization of security sectors and threats: “the security of human collectives is affected by factors in five major sectors: military, political, economic, societal and environmental” and their respective threats.56 As such, to a great extent, the allocation made here of challenges-threats and mutual interests under each sector follows Buzan’s approach. Table I summarizes the areas of existing or prospective cooperation among the participating states of each trilateral partnership. Although energy is usually seen as part of the economic sector, more recent research has suggested that it actually has its own distinct importance and cuts across most of the five sectors suggested by Buzan.57 Taking that into account in conjunction with its significance in the overall value of the Eastern Mediterranean as an emerging region, energy is here addressed as a separate sector. Furthermore, it should be kept in mind that many of the issues listed in Table I can fall under the concept of “human security” as well; a concept that goes beyond military-related threats, violence and crime, dealing with “the security of people’s livelihoods (economic, food, environment or health security)” and “can also be used to look into personal, community and political security.”58 This aspect is important as it centres not only on the state (or national security narrowly defined), but on the various security needs of individuals (or social groups and Non-Governmental Organizations) and their role in addressing security concerns and contributing to regional cooperation. It was in this context that the 4th trilateral Summit between Israel, Cyprus and Greece convened under the thematic heading “Building People-to-People Bridges.”59 55 56 57 58 59 “Cyprus-Greece-Israel 4th Trilateral Summit Declaration,” Press and Information Office - Republic of Cyprus (May 2018), https://www.pio.gov.cy/en/press-releases-article.html?id=1656#flat; “Joint Declaration Following the 5th Cyprus-EgyptGreece Trilateral Summit,” United Nations General Assembly (November 2017), https://www.pio.gov.cy/assets/pdf/newsroom/2018/03/UN%20A-72-760%20Cyprus-Egypt-Greece.pdf. Barry Buzan, People, States, and Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War, 2nd ed. (Colchester: ECPR Press, 1991, 2007), 38. See also, Richard Ullman, “Redefining Security,” International Security 8, no. 1 (1983): 132-134. Adamides and Christou, “Beyond Hegemony: Cyprus, Energy Securitization and the Emergence of New Regional Security Complexes,” 181. Oscar A. Gómez and Des Gasper, “Human Security: A Thematic Guidance Note for Regional and National Human Development Report Teams,” United Nations Development Programme - Human Development Report Office (2013), http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/human_security_guidance_note_r-nhdrs.pdf; see also, Mahbub Haq, Reflections on Human Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), 116. “Cyprus-Greece-Israel 4th Trilateral Summit Declaration”. The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist 20 Table I: Cooperation within the Trilateral Partnerships Sectors of Cooperation Military-Hard Security Israel-Cyprus-Greece (Common Interests & Challenges) n n n n n n n Support the exercise of sovereign rights Tackling asymmetric threats Counter-terrorism Information exchange Cyber defence Common exercises on search and rescue Against weapons proliferation Greece-Cyprus-Egypt (Common Interests & Challenges) n n n n n n n n Economic n n n n n n n n n n n n Energy n n Trade Tourism Agriculture Industry Energy Economic Growth Investments Innovation Entrepreneurship Research Information Communication Technologies Sustainable Development n EastMed Pipeline Project EuroAsia Interconnector n n n n n n n n n n n Counter-terrorism and extremist ideologies Irregular migration Promote regional stability and security Increase information sharing Effective management of large movements of refugees and migrants Support respect of the sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction of each state Call on Turkey to cease illegal activities within the maritime zones of Cyprus and refrain from similar actions in the future Against Smuggling and trafficking Tourism, cruise tourism, increase of tourist flow Sustainable development Economic prosperity Information Communication Technologies Innovation Diversification of energy resources and routes Security of energy supply Need to modernize and develop new energy infrastructures Promote trilateral energy cooperation Energy infrastructure projects (with the private sector) EuroAsia Interconnector Exploitation and transfer of natural gas An Ambitious Project of Regionalism? Sectors of Cooperation Environmental Israel-Cyprus-Greece (Common Interests & Challenges) n n n n n n n n n CulturalSocialPolitical n n 21 Greece-Cyprus-Egypt (Common Interests & Challenges) Concept of joint ecosystems Protection of the marine environment in the Mediterranean Satellite monitoring of the coastal and marine environment Climate Change Water and wastewater management Treatment of wastewater from olive oil mills Common sets of indicators for climate change adaptation Joint marine oil pollution drill (2017) Sustainable Development n Against Religious intolerance, xenophobia, anti-Semitism, incitement, harassment or violence against persons or communities based on ethnic origin or religious belief Safeguard cultural heritage, underwater heritage n n n n n n n n n n n Impact of transboundary projects Preparedness and response to major marine pollution incidents Combating coastal erosion Coastal zone management Biological diversity and nature protection Waste management Climate change adaptation Against looting and illicit trafficking in cultural property Protection of cultural heritage, and underwater cultural heritage Diaspora Migration Against extremist ideologies An Eastern Mediterranean Cooperation Council (EMCC)? Within the framework of the two trilateral partnerships and their various sectors of cooperation, a number of agreements have been signed. As Table I demonstrates, cooperation in the economic and environmental sectors, for example, is particularly strong. On the other hand, although cooperation in the energy sector has not yet materialized, its prospect could greatly deepen meaningful cooperation and interdependence among participating states. Cypriot Foreign Minister, Nikos Christodoulides, took things a step further when he stated that, Cyprus has adopted the view that hydrocarbons can become the new coal and steel, in a new regional context. A tool of cooperation and synergies that would create an economy of scale, an inviting environment for companies and investors; a tool that would meet the energy security needs of the region and that of the EU and gradually contribute to greater stability in relations among countries of the region and promote security and peace. And ultimately, why not, a catalyst for greater, more institutionalized political co-operation in the region.60 60 “The Foreign Minister, Mr Nikos Christodoulides, on Cyprus’s Geopolitical Role in the Eastern Mediterranean at the Ajc Transatlantic Institute, Brussels,” Press and Information Office - Republic of Cyprus (17 July 2018), https://www.pio.gov.cy/en/press-releases-article.html?id=2938#flat. 22 The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist In this regard, it is not too early for one to contemplate – at least on a theoretical level – the future prospect of more regional integration in the Eastern Mediterranean. And even though energy may not soon become the catalysing factor for something like this, other sectors such as the environment or the economy might. If this is indeed a vision that all four states participating in the trilateral partnerships in question share, their cooperation could be seen – perhaps with some degree of ambition – as “proto-regionalism”—a project that could one day result in an Eastern Mediterranean Cooperation Council (EMCC) – akin to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – or something similar. The GCC61 is a good comparative example, as it would share similar characteristics with a prospective EMCC: n n n n both refer to sub-regional cooperation in the economic, political and security fields, among others as in the case of the GCC, EMCC countries have the potential of becoming hydrocarbonsabundant with energy being central to their economic development and growth their participating states share common security concerns the likelihood of war among participating states is very low There are of course a number of differences as well that stem from the fact that the GCC is a much more advanced and integrated regionalist project. For example, GCC members have a unified stance on international issues within the United Nations (UN); they have developed strong coordination on defence issues; they facilitate labour mobility for their citizens with the use of national IDs; and they have an established and functional institutional structure partially inspired by the EU.62 Eastern Mediterranean states could learn from the GCC experience should they choose to move towards regionalism and the institutionalization of their cooperation. In a sense, they are in an even more advantageous position in terms of institutional design given the experience of Greece and Cyprus as member-states of the EU. Borrowing from the GCC example,63 Diagram I shows a basic organizational structure that an EMCC could have, comprised of a Supreme Council, a Ministerial Council, and a General Secretariat with its subdivisions. Other bodies could also exist in this structure, such as a Consultative Commission to the Supreme Council, a Dispute Settlement Commission, etc. 61 62 63 Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Legrenzi and Calculli, 3. “GCC Organizational Structure,” Secretariat General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (2018), http://www.gcc-sg.org/enus/Pages/default.aspx. An Ambitious Project of Regionalism? 23 Diagram I: A Basic Organizational Structure for EMCC The Supreme Council The Ministerial Council General Secretariat Head of Delegation to the EU Ass. Sec. Gen. (Political) Ass. Sec. Gen. (Economic) Secretary General Ass. Sec. Gen. (Military) Head of Delegation to the UN Ass. Sec. Gen. (Environmental) Ass. Sec. Gen. (Energy) Ass. Sec. Gen. (Cultural) As the GCC has been characterized as “the most successful example of subregional integration in the Middle East,”64 despite its problems and limitations, an EMCC could hope to achieve great success in terms of deeper inter-state cooperation, regional development, stability and security. However, this already ambitious idea is further complicated by geopolitical realities on the ground. In other words, regionalism in the Eastern Mediterranean is conditional on a number of factors. 64 Legrenzi and Calculli, 3. 24 EPILOGUE: CONDITIONS FOR REGIONALISM Regionalism is admittedly a very good vision to have, especially if one takes into account all its positive qualities. Fawcett points out that, Aside from promoting economic, political and security cooperation and community, it [regionalism] can consolidate state-building and democratization, check heavy-handed behaviour by strong states, create and lock in norms and values, increase transparency, make states and international institutions more accountable, and help to manage the negative effects of globalization.65 But in the Eastern Mediterranean things are more complex. And if the participating states of the trilateral partnerships want to work for an effective and sustainable regionalist project, they will need to address and overcome a number of obstacles. Below is a non-exhaustive list of the main problems that a regionalist project in the Eastern Mediterranean will face. A. Turkey. The first issue with the developing inter-state network in the Eastern Mediterranean is the absence of Turkey. To be sure, this is not without justification given the troubled relations Turkey has with the rest of the states of the region as explained above. In fact, Turkish foreign policy has contributed to the development of closer relations between Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Egypt. In this respect, the growing regional cooperation also works as a counter-balance to Turkey. And yet, the sustainability of the existing regional cooperation is challenged by Turkey and depends to a great extent on Ankara maintaining poor relations with Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt. However, this is not a certainty in the medium or long term; a change in Turkish foreign policy, among other things, could easily reshuffle the patterns of cooperation in the region. That means that Turkey cannot remain permanently excluded from a regionalist vision that aspires to take the Eastern Mediterranean from conflict to cooperation; its future prospects will partly depend on its ability to include and socialize Turkey. B. Cyprus Problem. Related to the above is the hitherto unresolved Cyprus conflict that prevents the normalization of Turkey-Cyprus relations and by extension complicates other international relations of Turkey as well (e.g., with Greece). It is de facto impossible for the 65 Fawcett, “Exploring Regional Domains: A Comparative History of Regionalism,” 429. Epilogue: Conditions for Regionalism 25 Republic of Cyprus and Turkey to develop bilateral relations as Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus. For its part, the latter does not accept Turkey’s control over the island’s north nor recognize the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (recognized only by Turkey). It is thus necessary for all actors involved to support a sustainable resolution of the Cyprus conflict, thereby contributing to the depolarization and normalization of Eastern Mediterranean’s geopolitics. C. Israel-Lebanon. The traditionally troubled relationship between Israel and Lebanon is not necessarily something that could prevent the progress of regional cooperation. Nonetheless, it could turn into a more serious problem in the future, especially in terms of natural gas exploration, exploitation and exportation, given the existing EEZ boundary dispute between the two countries.66 Moreover, the activities and operations of Lebanon’s Hezbollah in Syria at the side of Bashar al Assad’s government67 have increased tensions with Israel and could even lead to military confrontation in the future. Therefore, prompt de-escalation and conflict resolution is of the essence; moreover, other Eastern Mediterranean states – e.g., Cyprus, Greece, and Egypt – could play a positive role for the sake of maintaining regional stability and peace. D. Syria. The Syrian war in itself is perhaps the greatest security problem in the Eastern Mediterranean, with repercussions ranging from internally displaced people, migrants and refugees, to Kurdish secessionist aspirations, international spheres of influence, Islamic terrorism, environmental disasters, destruction of cultural heritage, and human security more generally. The war has affected many other states and peoples of the region while its negative consequences will likely be felt for years to come. In the context of regional cooperation, Eastern Mediterranean states could provide all sorts of help such as humanitarian aid, financial and practical support for post-conflict reconstruction, diplomatic support for negotiations among the warring parties, etc. It is better to engage with this problem rather than ignore it, because of the various repercussions it has for the whole region. E. Israel-Egypt. The good but sensitive Israel-Egypt relations may render it difficult for the respective governments to acquire the necessary public legitimacy for closer and more direct cooperation, especially in the context of a regional organization. Steps need to be taken at both the governmental and social levels in order for such a closer relationship to be more feasible and domestically legitimized. 66 67 For more on the dispute see e.g., “Israel, Lebanon Argue over Offshore Energy Block,” Cyprus Mail (31 January 2018), https://cyprus-mail.com/2018/01/31/israeli-minister-says-lebanese-claim-gas-field-provocative/. E.g., Mona Alami, Hezbollah’s Military Involvement in Syria and Its Wider Regional Role (Riyadh: King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, 2017). 26 The Eastern Mediterranean: Between Power Struggles and Regionalist F. Palestinian Issue. The Palestinian issue is, of course, another problem that will have to be addressed as it affects Israel’s relations with the Arab World and is often the cause of conflict outbreaks. It would be safe to argue that further normalization in Arab-Israeli relations will not be possible without positive developments on this issue. Lack of progress will, in turn, keep complicating Israel’s relations with Cyprus and Greece – i.e., countries with traditionally good relations with the Arab World – let alone Egypt. G. Energy. Though energy can prove to be the cornerstone of a future regionalist project in the Eastern Mediterranean, it can just as easily become a major problem in the case that natural gas exports, pipeline or LNG projects become a point of contention and antagonism. To avoid such a scenario, the concerned countries will need to remain in close and continuous dialogue and, to the extent possible, design their next steps collectively. There are evidently many issues to be addressed, and Eastern Mediterranean regionalism will likely not be an easy task. Yet, with hard work there are positive prospects—provided that the involved actors possess the necessary political will to go the extra mile for the sake of a better regional future. The Way Forward – A “Low-Politics” Entry Point to Regionalism The difficulty in moving forward in such a volatile area and in the midst of sensitive geopolitical and inter-state balances must be acknowledged. After all, the trilateral partnerships were first developed in domains that were not very politically charged, such as the economy. And indeed, Joint Declarations issued after the trilateral summits make sure to highlight that the partnerships do not turn against other states, with references such as: “As has been underlined on previous occasions, this partnership is not exclusive in design or nature, and our three countries remain committed to welcoming other like-minded parties in our efforts to create and advance synergies and collaboration.”68 This testifies to the fact that inter-state synergies in the region are not necessarily perceived positively by other states of the Eastern Mediterranean, especially when cooperation starts extending to the military and defence sectors. If we wish to categorise the areas in which the four states in question cooperate according to their degree of geopolitical sensitivity, we note the following three: 1. Military – Hard Security (as it contains the dimension of hard power antagonism and the potential of military confrontation) 2. Energy (as it might exclude certain countries from the regional energy security architecture and export routes) 3. Economy (as it could work in a competitive manner) 68 “Cyprus-Greece-Israel 4th Trilateral Summit Declaration”. Epilogue: Conditions for Regionalism 27 Cooperation in the areas of the environment and social-political-cultural affairs is considered little to not-at-all threatening, since such cooperation has a minor impact – if any – on national security considerations of other countries. An Eastern Mediterranean regionalist project will eventually have to expand and encompass more regional – state and non-state – actors to the end of promoting the development of common interests and political culture through cooperation. Failure to do so will lead to an exclusivist project that will defeat its own purpose – i.e., a more stable, secure, integrated and prosperous region. Yet given the existing problems, as discussed above, such cooperation should be initially pursued in politically non-sensitive areas or through what is often called “low politics.” Low politics issues such as the environment and human security can function as areas of dialogue and cooperation when more sensitive areas, such as national security, constitute points of contention.69 A non-sensitive area, such as the environment, can be used as an entry point to a more long-term strategy towards expanded regional cooperation and, ultimately, regionalism. Even the institutionalization of a broader regional cooperation could begin as mono-sectoral and focus, for example, on environment-related issues. This approach will provide time and space to the actors involved so that they can develop the necessary political and technical capacities. 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London and New York: Penguin Books, 2011. The report can be ordered from: PRIO Cyprus Centre P.O.Box 25157, 1307 Nicosia, Cyprus Tel: +357 22 456555/4 cypruscentre@prio.org Taking into account the power changes at the global level and their impact on the regional level (particularly the Eastern Mediterranean), it is here argued, in line with a small but growing body of literature, that the Eastern Mediterranean should be seen as a distinct geopolitical space. The report begins with an analysis of the transition of the international system to multipolarity, one of the outcomes of which is the regionalization of the international system and the growing importance of the regional level of analysis. It ultimately examines whether the Eastern Mediterranean as a distinct region (or sub-region) has been experiencing processes of regionalism with regard to different areas of cooperation. It further argues that the synergies currently under development in the Eastern Mediterranean could be seen as the first step towards a regionalist project (or “proto-regionalism”), highlighting, however, that the realization of such a project faces multiple limitations and is highly conditional on a number of factors that need to be addressed first. A more gradual, well-thought-out and comprehensive approach should be followed-one that would also address important regional challenges-if the involved actors want to invest in a stable and sustainable regionalist project. 978-82-7288-919-6 (online) The report can be ordered from: PRIO Cyprus Centre P.O.Box 25157, 1307 Nicosia, Cyprus Tel: +357 22 456555/4 cypruscentre@prio.org