Cost Estimation

Cost and commercial management processes and practices in different parts of the world vary significantly. In the UK and the British Commonwealth these practices are mainly market oriented and matured over several centuries. The effects of globalisation and impact of foregoing recession have led most UK based cost consultancies to expand overseas. In contrast China, the modern world’s economic powerhouse is still transforming its construction industry from a communist quota based system to a market based system. UK-China cooperation agreements foster greater economic cooperation and professional mobility. This requires better understanding of systems and processes in both countries. There is a significant level of lack of common understanding of construction cost and commercial management systems of these two countries. Therefore, this research aims at mapping the UK Cost and Commercial Management systems to Chinese Engineering Cost Systems.

Project management are still depending on manual exchange of information based on paper documents. Where design drawings drafting by computer-aided design (CAD), but the data needed by project management software can not be extracted directly from CAD, and must be manually entered by the user. The process of calculation and collection of information from drawings and enter in the project management software needs effort and time with the possibility of errors in the transfer and enter of information. This research presents an integrated computer system for building projects where the extraction and import quantities, through the interpretation of AutoCAD drawing with MS Access database of unit costs and productivities for the pricing and duration of tasks, then exported to MS Project and MS Excel. The system was developed by using Visual Basic and ActiveX automation technology for combining the above software. The system, also, can calculate quantities of materials. The system includes digitizer (on-screen takeoff) calculates the lengths and areas of the drawings to which the form of an image and scanned. The integrated system has been applied to case study, a storages building for hospital 260 beds. The results proved the effectiveness of the system for the conversion of information from the graphical form dwg to numerical formulas xlcx / xlc and mpp can be handled easily pleased and software are covered.

Risk is defined as the probability of a specific adverse event occurring within a specific period, while Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is the development of a quantitative estimate of risk based on engineering evaluation and mathematical techniques by combining estimate of incident consequences and frequencies. In view of the increase in the use of railways as the mode of transportation for hazardous materials throughout the world, the associated risk analysis should be taken into concern. In this study, the failure frequency of the transportation of ammonia from the Petronas fertilizers Kedah (PFK) plant in Gurun (Northern part of Peninsular Malaysia), to the Chemical Company Malaysia (CCM) fertilizer's facilities in Port Klang (South-western part of Peninsular Malaysia) was evaluated by incorporating the human error assessment. The study highlighted the importance of human error contributions in the failure frequency analysis and its impact on the selected failure scenarios. Besides, it also shows that the application of the human error assessment and reduction technique (HEART), which is a useful human reliability analysis tool, should be used in parallel with the fuzzy arithmetic approach to reduce the uncertainties involved in the estimation of human error probabilities, and hence, to reduce the likelihood of incorrect risks estimates being assessed. The results suggested that the commonly applied approach in quantitative risk assessments, which only consider equipment failures in the failure frequency estimations, are clearly an underestimate of the potential causes of failures leading to hazardous material releases, and hence, the calculated risks based do not reflect the actual risks. © 2008 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog, 2009

Key procurement challenges include the definition of value and the identification of Value for Money principles. In the case of software development, the failure of contemporary systems of costing and project management to create reliable, replicable cost estimation that links to the requirements of project planners and managers represents a significant deficiency in procurement theory and practice. This paper explores the covert problems of software development procurement and its multi-disciplinary facets to arrive at a theoretical structure and methodology for estimating costs and value within unique software development procurement proposals. The methodology aims to provide a conceptual link between competing professional disciplines within a multi-disciplinary evaluation model.

This article presents the results from the monitoring of a system of ponds for the treatment of piggery wastes, carried out during a 20 months period, with the objective to determine design parameters for the optimization of the treatment system. A series composed of two anaerobic ponds, one facultative pond and one water hyacinth pond, gave an efficiency of 97% in the removal of BOD5, 93% for total phosphorus, 91% for total Kjeldahl nitrogen and a removal of 7 log units for fecal coliforms. A model of the optimization incurred in the treatment of these wastes was developed, within economic concepts.

Several network operators have been deploying Quality of Service (QoS) techniques that help improve customer satisfaction and can have an impact on the cost of telecommunications services. As Long
-Run Incremental Cost (LRIC) models are used in various jurisdictions to derive the cost of regulated services, a question that needs to be
addressed is how QoS concepts can be included in an LRIC model. This article pursues two goals. First, it describes the main QoS techniques and strategies that could be taken into account in a cost model. Second, it discusses the impact of QoS concepts on an LRIC
model. The article shows that the introduction of QoS concepts into a cost model involves a critical review of the following parameters:
cost drivers, cost of network elements, traffic supported by network elements, and usage factors.

Determine con ConstrucSoft Valor Ganado, mes a mes el margen de utilidad real a obtener en sus obras, y determine rápidamente la situación económica de la obra.

Conocer el margen de utilidad mes a mes, de acuerdo a las valorizaciones en la medida que se vaya ejecutando la obra, permitirá tomar las decisiones pertinentes, en cuanto al plazo y al costo de cada una de las fases de control, a fin de terminar la obra con un saldo positivo.

Este es el método que todo constructor debería emplear para evitar pérdidas, logrando aumentar el patrimonio de la empresa, con la renovación del equipamiento y el mejoramiento de la infraestructura, para afrontar positivamente las nuevas obras.

Social phobia is a persistent disorder that is unlikely to be maintained by avoidance alone. One reason for the enduring nature of social phobia may be the way individuals with the disorder process social information. It is important for those involved in social phobia to have an understanding of information-processing biases, because it has the potential to guide psychological interventions.

Cost estimation may become increasingly difficult, slow, and resource-consuming when it cannot be performed analytically. If traditional cost estimation techniques are usable at all under those circumstances, they have important limitations. This article analyses the potential applications of data science to management accounting, through the case of a cost estimation task posted on Kaggle, a Google data science and machine learning website. When extensive data exist, machine learning techniques can overcome some of those limitations. Applying machine learning to the data reveals non-obvious patterns and relationships that can be used to predict costs of new assemblies with acceptable accuracy. This article discusses the advantages and limitations of this approach and its potential to transform cost estimation, and more widely management accounting. The multinational company Caterpillar posted a contest on Kaggle to estimate the price that a supplier would quote for manufacturing a number of industrial assemblies, given historical quotes for similar assemblies. Hitherto, this problem would have required reverse-engineering the supplier's accounting structure to establish the cost structure of each assembly, identifying non-obvious relationships among variables. This complex and tedious task is usually performed by human experts, adding subjectivity to the process.

Keynote lecture at the: 1st International Software Measuremen & Analysis (ISMA) Conference, Sponsored by IFPUG, September 10-15, 2006 San Diego, California, USA

7. Abstract
The presented Function Point Prognosis was performed three times: with 20, 39 and 78 application system counts, as number of counts increased during the years. It was possible to show from error calculations that the regression formulae delivered Function Points with 13 % error by only counting the EI’s and EO’s. Since we fortunately have an almost uniform development environment with all application systems being counted (both being prerequisites for this result) and thus knowing all our interfaces, we can do this Function Point Prognosis before or at project start with marginal effort.

This Function Points are used for effort estimation with an estimation tool (Capers Jones’ Checkpoint for Windows). Since this tool allowed only to estimate and view single projects or their comparison with other projects, templates or portfolios of projects within this tool database, there was a lack of overview. Thus the here presented enhancement was developed, showing the overview of the estimated projects for certain project categories like e.g. new development, enhancement, maintenance, project post mortem, and template, each for different platforms like e.g. host, PC, C/S, etc.

Content
THE CHALLENGE OF EARLY ESTIMATION 1
GETTING STARTED 2
DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENT 2
IT PROJECT ESTIMATION BASICS 3
EXPERT ESTIMATIONS 3
POLITICAL ESTIMATIONS 4
ESTIMATION CONFERENCES 4
CONTROLLING AND ESTIMATION 5
THE MOST IMPORTANT THEMES OF  ESTIMATION 5
FUNCTION POINT PROGNOSIS 6
FUNCTION POINT DATABASE 6
INDICATORS 7
Value adjustment factor 7
Function component proportions 7
REGRESSION ANALYSIS 8
PROGNOSIS FORMULAE 8
TOOL BASED ESTIMATION 8
ESTIMATION TOOL 8
ESTIMATION PORTFOLIO AND TEMPLATES 8
BENEFITS OF EARLY FUNCTION POINT PROGNOSIS FOR EARLY PROJECT ESTIMATION 8
BENEFITS OF THE FPM 8
LITERATURE 10

Purpose: To determine whether adoption of the Ottawa knee rule will decrease the cost of evaluating adult patients with acute blunt knee trauma compared with not using the rule. Materials and methods: A decision tree was constructed with two arms, one that included explicit use of the Ottawa knee rule and another that did not include adoption of the Ottawa knee rule. Probability estimates for the model were obtained from an internally generated data set, while cost estimates were obtained from hospital charges, Medicare reimbursement rates, and Department of Labor statistics. A societal perspective was adopted. Results: The baseline analysis indicated that adoption of the Ottawa knee rule results in an average savings per patient of US$3. Cost savings increase as the cost of radiography increases. However, under certain conditions, adoption of the Ottawa knee rule may result in increased costs, especially if the sensitivity of the rule drops below .94. Conclusions: Under most conditions, adoption of the Ottawa knee rule results in modest cost savings compared with not using the rule. Individual institutions may wish to determine whether their practice environment (fracture prevalence, cost of radiography, patient waiting time, etc.) is conducive to significant cost savings before formally adopting the knee rule.

Input cost involved in any crop has a direct bearing on the viability of that crop. All the stages of mulberry sericulture from cultivation of mulberry plants, silkworm rearing to silk reeling and other post cocoon processes such as twisting, dyeing, weaving, printing and finishing are labour-intensive. For economically evolving the cost of cocoon production at farmers level in Kashmir valley three case studies were carried out during 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, in Dachnipora cluster (Anantnag district) involving 100 farmers each. These farmers were selected randomly out of 500 farmers from captive area of Dachnipora under supervision of Central Silk Board. While calculating the costs, the different cost items were grouped under fixed and variable cost. The data on fixed and variable cost items was analyzed by using simple tabular methods. The results showed that during 2015-16, cost for production of one kg dry cocoons was ₹ 489, during 2016-17, cost for production of one kg dry cocoons was ₹ 458.2, while as during 2017-18 the cost was ₹ 534/kg dry cocoons. Under fixed cost category the highest contributing factor was depreciation on rearing equipments during the year 2015-16, while as it was depreciation on rearing houses during 2016-17 and 2017-18. Under the category of variable costs the highest contributing factor was cost on labour (mostly family labour) for all the three years with a percentage contribution of 41.81%, 49.33% and 53.21% respectively towards overall cost. From the above results, it is evident that labour is an indispensable factor in cocoon production and production cost can be minimized only by efficient utilization of manpower along with the adoption of mulberry cultivation and silkworm rearing techniques and technologies.

This article presents a system of computer aided costs of weld operations by welding for mechanical assemblages. We propose a system based on the combination of two cost estimation methods: on one hand we use the analytic method to formulate the time for weld and for gas and filling metal consumption according to the different parameters of preparing and welding features. The estimating is based upon an evaluation of the filling metal mass used in the welding process. On the other hand, we use the parametric method for the structuring of costs generated by the different features costs which compose the welding process: preparing, pointing and welding. In this case, the estimating is based on the structure of inductors suitable for the scale of each feature. The system we have developed has been implemented with Microsoft Access which permits us to rapidly and efficiently define important and strong data base. The latter constitutes in majority a library of expertise for the enterprise such as the used processes, the preparations, the metals, etc. At last, and to show the developed methods interest and the efficiency of the model, we have treated an industrial project proposed by a collaborating enterprise. The results obtained compared to real time made by welding staff prove the rapidity and the accuracy of the model we have developed.

The global transition towards service orientation is posing challenges in cost estimation for manufacturers driven by the uncertainties that arise at the bidding stage of long-lasting performance-based contracts (i.e. availability). Service uncertainty is driven by the quality of information flow and knowledge across a given service network; however, it commonly suffers from the unavailability of useful data to assist cost predictions. Currently, consideration of cost uncertainty for an industrial product–service system is lacking in literature. To fill this gap, this paper combines literature in service and uncertainty in cost estimation to propose the components of a service delivery system, classification of sources of uncertainty based on supply and demand and the suitable uncertainty modelling methods for service cost estimation. The paper categorises service uncertainties in a demand and supply approach, whilst also allocating the types of uncertainty into aleatory and epistemic to propose suitable uncertainty modelling approaches. For future research, various areas such as consideration of a holistic approach to account for service uncertainties and development of a framework to support inter-linkages across a service network are proposed.

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, the paper identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure developments pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, the paper explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. This results in the "survival of the unfittest," where often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, the paper presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large infrastructure projects with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance-structures, the latter being more important.

In conventional business and government megaprojects-such as hydroelectric dams, chemical-processing plants, or big-bang enterprise-resource-planning systems-the standard approach is to build something monolithic and customized. Such projects must be 100% complete before they can deliver benefits: Even when it's 95% complete, a nuclear reactor is of no use. In this article, the author argues that two factors play a critical role in determining success or failure: modularity in design and speed in iteration. The article examines those factors by looking at well-known megaprojects, both successful ones and cautionary tales. It argues that "What's our LEGO?" is a key question for big projects. If you don't have a LEGO, you need to find one, or your project will be slow, expensive, and failure prone. If you have one, replicate and learn, over and over, to shorten delivery, bring down costs, and get to your revenues and benefits sooner.

Este estudio tuvo como objetivo calcular el costo unitario de los servicios finales y algunos intermedios de un Hospital General de la Secretaría de Salud del Gobierno del Distrito Federal (SSDF), seleccionado debido a que es uno de mayor volumen de servicios y nivel de complejidad. En el diseño de la metodología para el cálculo se consideró las técnicas de instrumentalización y de costeo directo o variable, y partió de un análisis global de distribución de la ejecución del 95% del ejercicio presupuestal en 2002 de la SSDF entre las unidades en que se desagrega hasta determinar lo correspondiente al hospital estudiado.
Debido a que el Programa Operativo Anual presenta información centralizada, las fuentes de información principales fueron la estadística y la presupuestal, investigadas por medio de diversos informes de las áreas administrativas y médicas del nivel central de la SSDF. De este modo, se determinaron costos promedio presupuestales, conocimiento que contribuye a elevar el nivel de
información programático-presupuestal de los hospitales de la SSDF, así como la estructura de los costos de operación, lo que aporta elementos para mejorar la planeación y distribución institucional eficiente de los recursos.

Following the increases in prices of materials and labour in the year 2010, the revision / updation of CSR has been carried out. In the year 2010 we have seen the prices of steel / diesel / bitumen go up considerably. Analysts are still uncertain with the prices in the year 2011. For the year 2010, we have carried out a general revision of all prices up to January 2011 in consultation with leading manufacturers, supplier, and specialist contractors.

These rates have been developed using NHA Rate Analysis formulae developed for previous CSRs with slight improvements wherever necessary. The variation in the proposed rates is anticipated in certain cases, which may be due to varying degrees / levels of productivity and price differences of various inputs at the regional level.

The rates, prices and outputs included in the resources and unit cost calculations, including allowances for wastage, normal productivity and efficiency are based on roadwork and bridge projects being carried out by NHA. The unit rates are average unit rates for a particular district and not project specific. The market can change very rapidly, which would obviously have an impact on the unit rates.

It must be understood that main objective of the CSR is to provide a realistic reference base for preparing Cost Estimates / PC-I and Evaluation of Bids, for NHA projects.

It is clear for the transportation industry that asphalt prices are heavily affected by changes in the crude oil market. This occurs because asphalt is a byproduct of the process of refining crude oil. However, there is still a lack of research on assessing the economic implications of this relationship. This paper assesses those implications through an innovative statistical process designed to quantify the economic correlation between asphalt and crude oil price fluctuations in Alabama. The proposed statistical process is used in this paper to model the relationship between the Alabama Department of Transportation's (ALDOT's) monthly asphalt price index and a national crude oil index published by the US Energy Information Administration. The process quantifies the relationship between these two commodities in relation to two metrics: (1) the time gap between an observed change in the crude oil index and its corresponding impact on the asphalt price index and (2) the magnitude of that impact. It was found that the most likely time gap between crude oil and asphalt price fluctuations in Alabama is 3 months, with a change ratio of 0.58. This means that a 1% increase in the price of crude oil would most likely affect the Alabama asphalt market 3 months later with a price increase of about 0.58%. Recognizing that these are just average values, the paper also presents a risk assessment tool that provides ALDOT with the probability of occurrence of different scenarios taking into consideration the observed variability in time gaps and change ratios.