Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam

Transboundary river basins are under increasing pressure due to population growth, agricultural and industrial developments, and climate change, as well as river pollution. Water scarcity is on the increase due to the increasing gap between water demands and supply. This will result in more tensions, disputes, conflicts, and deadlocks in negotiations over water distribution, length of time it takes to fill the reservoir, and allocation. Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River with a hydropower capacity of 6,000 MW. The total estimated cost of the project is US$ 4.8 Billion and will be the largest dam in Africa, which is much larger than the Aswan Dam in Egypt. Regional controversies have risen over the construction of the dam between Ethiopia and the downstream countries (Sudan and

Ethiopia, having all the assets [natural and human resources] the rest of Africa have, in addition to being a pioneer in cementing African unity and, forming and hosting the OAU (now AU), and it influence in shaping the African political discourse [more specifically in the horn of Africa (HOA)] – the global powers from West to East have always competed to win Ethiopia as their sole trophy in the geopolitically significant Horn of Africa.

With the exception of the Derg regime that was forced to stick with the communist bloc betrayed by the west that sided with Somalia’s ZaedBarre& the separatist insurgents in the north, and the TPLF- led – EPRDF regime that made itself of full service to the western powers who brought them to power while playing with the Chinese along the side, Ethiopia has always taken a neutral stance in global political affairs – thereby expanding its diplomatic reach on all fronts from Africa to Europe, from Middle East to the Caribbean, and from the US to Russia, China, Japan, Korea and other Asian powerhouses.

Under Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has further strengthened its diplomatic ties with the Middle East who relied on Africa for food and water security – and port and military domination over the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb, while influencing the global political dynamics using their oil resource as leverage. Similarly, Ethiopia has strengthened its diplomatic ties with China and Russia – whose growing economic and military influence in HOA countries [ET, ERI, SOM, DJI and SUD] and the rest of Africa is of immense threat to western [most particularly, US] interest in the region.

As a result, Ethiopia is under the surge of diplomatic pressures on account of several strategic issues arising from the GERD, global geopolitical rivalry between western powers, China & Russia; as well as some Middle East/Arab states. Sudan's irredentist border claims as potential trigger of high risk border conflict in the horizon, the intense global political pressure on Ethiopia is being shooted from all sides-be it the US, UK, European Union and the Arab League. It is to be noted that all these problems are coupled with one another. Decoupling these problems might help the Ethiopian government and the diplomatic community.

تعمل مصر بعد ثورة يناير ٢٠١١ علي إعادة ترتيب علاقتها بالدول الأفريقية عامة ودول حوض
النيل بصفة خاصة، لاستعادة دورها الذي قامت به إبان عهد الرئيس جمال عبد الناصر، وتعمل أيضاً على
المحافظة علي حصتها المائية السنوية ( ٥٥,٥ مليار متر مكعب)، وان أمكن زيادتها بما يعود بالنفع على
كل دول الحوض، وتسعي بعض دول المنابع منذ عدة سنوات إلي محاولة إلغاء الاتفاقيات المبرمة بين
مصر ودول حوض النيل والتي يبلغ عددها ١٥ اتفاقية ابتداء من ١٨٩١ وانتهاء بمبادرة حوض النيل عام
.١٩٩٩
أعلنت دول المنابع (عدا إرتريا) في أبريل ٢٠١٠ عزمهم علي إنشاء مفوضية اطارية جديدة تقوم
علي إلغاء جميع الاتفاقيات السابقة، وإيجاد آلية جديدة لتقاسم مياه النيل علي أساس مايسمي بالاستخدام
المنصف. وقد قامت إثيوبيا في السنوات القليلة الماضية بتنفيذ عدة مشروعات مائية علي بعض الأنهار
٣ علي نهر أومو، ومنها مايقع في ،٢ ، الاثيوبية، منها مايقع خارج حوض نهر النيل مثل جيبي ١
حوض النيل مثل سد تاكيزي علي نهر تاكيزي (عطبرة) في نوفمبر ٢٠١٠ م، ومشروع تانا-بيليس الذي
يربط بين بحيرة تانا ونهر بيليس في حوض النيل الأزرق في مايو ٢٠١١ م.
وجاري العمل في انشاء سد النهضة الإثيوبي علي النيل الأزرق، حيث تم وضع حجر الأساس في
٢ ابريل ٢٠١١ م، وكان يسمي بسد الألفية العظيم. توالت التصريحات الاعلامية من جانب الحكومة
الإثيوبية حول انشاء سد النهضة من حيث اسم المشروع وخصائصه الفنية من ارتفاع السد وسعة
التخزين التي ت ا روحت في التصريحات من ١١,١ مليار م ٣ في الد ا رسة الأمريكية إلي ٧٤ مليار م ٣ في
٢٠١٢ مرو ا رً بعدة أرقام مختلفة في فترة زمنية لاتتجاوز عدة أسابيع.
ويهدف هذا البحث إلي رصد وتحليل:
١. أهم التحديات الطبيعية التي تواجه مشروعات التنمية المائية في اثيوبيا، موضحاً العلاقة بين أهداف
التنمية المعلنة للمشروعات الإثيوبية والاعتبا ا رت السياسية سواء كانت داخلية أو خارجية.
٢. مجالات التنمية في إثيوبيا (الطاقة والز ا رعة)
٣. علاقة سد النهضة الإثيوبي بثورة ٢٥ يناير المصرية.

نهر النيل هو أطول أنهار العالم حيث يبلغ طوله ٦٦٥٠ كم، ويمتد من دائرة العرض ٤ درجة
جنوباً إلي ٣٢ درجة شمالا ، ويغطي حوض النيل مساحة ٣,٤ مليون كم ٢ في ١٠ دول أفريقية هي
من المنبع إلي المصب: تن ا زنيا – جمهورية الكونغو اليمق ا رطية – أوغندا – كينيا – بورندي – رواندا
– إثيوبيا – إرتريا - السودان – مصر (شكل ١)، ورغم ذلك فإن تصرفه عند أسوان من أقل
التصرفات النهرية ( ٨٤ مليار م ٣ فقط) علي مستوي العالم.
ينبع نهر النيل من مصدرين رئيسيين هما:
١) الهضبة الإثيوبية والتي تشارك بحوالي ٧١ مليار م ٣ عند أسوان ( ٨٥ % من إي ا رد نهر )
النيل)، من خلال ثلاث أنهار رئيسية: النيل الأزرق (أباي) ٥٠ مليار م ٣ والذي يشكل
، حوالي ٦٠ % من إي ا رد نهر النيل عند أسوان، السوباط (بارو- أكوبو) ١١ مليار م ٣
(١). عطبرة (تيكيزي) ١١ م ٣
١٥ % من إي ا رد نهر النيل)، ) ٢) هضبة البحي ا رت الاستوائية والتي تشارك بحوالي ١٣ مليار م ٣ )
والتي تشمل بحي ا رت فيكتوريا، كيوجا، إدوارد، جورج، ألبرت.

African Renaissance is a term which is used to describe new era in African his- tory and strongly serves propaganda reasons. The aim of the article is to analyse the role of this notion in terms of Ethiopia, i.e. how the term is being employed in Ethiopian politics and propaganda. It is stressed that even though the term it- self is a new introduction, the idea of building a strong state on the basis of grand tradition has been used in Ethiopian history on several occasions. Nowadays, the best examples of references to Renaissance by the state’s propaganda are to be found in symbolical meaning of the widely discussed and controversial project of construction the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile. Other as- pects of how the term is being employed can be seen in a propaganda film mate- rial produced by the Foreign Ministry of Ethiopia in 2015 with the view to ad- vertise the achievements of the government.

يأتي إعلان السودان يوم الجمعة 28 أغسطس 2020 عن فشل الجولة الثانية من مفاوضات الاتحاد الأفريقي في الوصول إلى صيغة توافقية بين مصر والسودان وإثيوبيا بشأن ملء وتشغيل "سد النهضة" والمشروعات المستقبلية على النيل الأزرق بمشاركة وزراء الري والموارد المائية في الدول الثلاث ليطرح التساؤل حول كيف يمكن لمصر إعادة توجيه رسم الخريطة الإقليمية في القارة الأفريقية على نحو يُلبي احتياجاتها المائية؟
وفي هذا الإطار، يناقش هذا التقدير أبعاد أزمة إنشاء "سد النهضة" الإثيوبي"، وأبرز نقاط الخلاف بين دول حوض النيل، بالإضافة إلى تحليل ملامح كلاً من السياسة الإثيوبية والسياسة السودانية تجاه مسألة السد، واقتراح عدد من التوصيات التي يمكن أن تساعد صانع القرار في هذا الصدد

East Africa´s most loathsome tyrannies, Sudan (Real Ethiopia) and Abyssinia (Fake Ethiopia), are characterized by many similarities that in and by themselves bear witness to the fact that the same evil plan has been implemented in both realms to plunge the local populations into underdevelopment, abject poverty, monstrous oppression and deliberate genocide.
First published in:
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/143394

Republished in:
http://www.oromoparliamentarians.org/English/Facts%20about%20Oromo/Ethiopia%20and%20Sudan%20fake%20history.htm
and
http://www.egyptsearch.com/forums/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=15;t=002624

"The Kebra Nagast" i.e. the"glory of kings of Ethiopia." The work has been held in peculiar honor in Abyssinia for several countries, and throughout that country, it has been, and still is, venerated by the people ass containing the final proof of their descent from the Hebrew patriarchs, and of kingship of their kings of Solomonic line with Christ, the son of God. (Sir E.A. Wallis Budge, 2000)

This study seeks to contribute to mediated out-group threat research by examining the consequences of exposure to news coverage depicting the Al-Nahda Dam crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia. It examines Egyptian feelings of collective insecurity and the role of group-based effect and group identity when exposed to a mediated out-group threat. Specifically, the study utilized the Ethiopians’ Al-Nahda Dam as an economic, safety, and cultural example of out-group threat to disentangle the effects of distinct types of threats and media outlets on the cognitive, affective, and behavioral responses of Egyptian audiences. Using a sample of 613 Egyptian respondents, recruited through an online survey service, this study explored the circumstances under which Egyptians might experience direct fear and anxiety when exposed to threatening news coverage of Al-Nahda Dam. This study provides support for the proposed hypotheses related to the mediated role of distinct affective reactions to threat, exposure to different issues communicated by the media about the Ethiopian dam. Given these results, recommendations for future research are discussed, with particular emphasis on the role of political ideology and media content. It also expands the research on the potential for media to evoke this out-group-directed effective response. A future scholarship could also examine the role of group identities and salient group membership in creating feelings of collective insecurity.

Ethiopia has experienced a massive rise in internal displacement recently, primarily due to interethnic conflicts, protests and unrest, as well as climate change and the failure of the state to adequately respond to these challenges. Owing to these various factors, Ethiopia is among the countries that account for one of the largest population of internally displaced persons worldwide. Given this unprecedented forced displacement, this study reexamines the case of Metekel zone in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of northwestern Ethiopia, a large-scale and state-led resettlement site for internally displaced persons set up in the 1980s where displaced people have consistently witnessed multiple waves of displacement. The policymakers put forward a dual strategy for a large-scale resettlement, by utilising the abundant 'untapped' natural resources in Metekel while easing land pressure and reducing the severity of drought and famine in the places of origin of internally displaced persons. People from diverse ethnic backgrounds have been resettled in Metekel. However, besides the immediate resistance of indigenous peoples to the establishment of the sites, Metekel's hidden negative externalities have also gradually surfaced, manifesting through simmering ethnic tensions, resistance, violence and conflict between the hosts and the resettlers. This led to ethnically targeted massacres and the eventual re-displacement of thousands of people-about 30 per cent of the Metekel's entire population between 2018 and 2021. By investigating the complex dynamics of conflict and the re-displacement of the resettlers in Metekel, this study underscores the need for a deeper understanding of humanitarian protection, forced internal displacement, as well as peace and security dynamics, in order to mitigate existing and potential future challenges in Ethiopia.

First published on 19th January 2021 here:
https://megalommatis.wordpress.com/2021/01/19/egyptians-deaf-to-the-oromo-insurrection-against-abyssinia-fake-ethiopia-and-blind-to-abyssinian-prophecies-about-egypts-annihilation-part-iv/

With the present article, I continue the publication of my long response to a US-based Oromo scholar, intellectual and activist, who asked my opinion about the possibility of the Oromo liberation movements to cooperate systematically with the government of Egypt on the basis of a plan providing for the liberation of Biyya Oromo and for the cancellation of the disastrous dam built on the Blue Nile in Benishangul province (Abyssinia, Fake Ethiopia). The first three articles are here:

Oromos, Egypt, the Nile, Abyssinia (Fake Ethiopia), and the True Essence of Colonialism – Part I
https://megalommatis.wordpress.com/2021/01/05/oromos-egypt-the-nile-abyssinia-fake-ethiopia-and-the-true-essence-of-colonialism-part-i/

The Enemies of Oromos & their Deeds: First & Second Colonization, Jesuit Reductions, Renaissance, and the Historical Revisionism of Racist Colonials – Part II
https://megalommatis.wordpress.com/2021/01/08/the-enemies-of-oromos-their-deeds-first-second-colonization-jesuit-reductions-renaissance-and-the-historical-revisionism-of-racist-colonials-part-ii/

Intellectual Colonialism in Egypt: How Egyptian Fake Universities & Obsolete Education destroy Cairo's Chances to ally with Oromos & Sudan's Arabic-speaking Cushites – Part III
https://megalommatis.wordpress.com/2021/01/15/intellectual-colonialism-in-egypt-how-egyptian-fake-universities-obsolete-education-destroy-cairos-chances-to-ally-with-oromos-sudans-arabic-speaking-cushites-part-iii/

In this -fourth- part, I give examples of what can be expected from Egypt's corrupt journalistic, academic and political establishments, even in the case a comprehensive and enormous preparatory work is undertaken by Cairo-based Oromos and their Egyptian friends in order to popularize topics that would make the average Egyptians and their academic, intellectual, journalistic, political and military elites conscious of
a) Abyssinia's colonial, tribal and dangerous nature,
b) the invasions of numerous, Muslim or not, African kingdoms that the Amhara and Tigray Abyssinians carried out over a period of 100 years (1850-1950) with the ostensible help of the English, the French and the Americans,
c) the genocides perpetrated for more than 170 years by the Amhara and Tigray Abyssinians against the subjugated nations of the aforementioned destroyed African kingdoms,
d) the ongoing, terrible oppression and persecution of these subjugated nations in Abyssinia (Fake Ethiopia),
e) Amhara and Tigray Abyssinians' hereditary anti-Egyptian hatred and anti-Islamic odium, and
f) the existing apocalyptic prophecies pertaining to the destruction of the present states of Egypt and Sudan and to the establishment of common borders between a state based in Jerusalem (at the time these Abyssinian prophecies were formulated there was no state of Israel in Palestine) and another headquartered in Abyssinia.

The ignorance and the obscurantism prevailing across Egypt's universities and educational system in general prevents the Egyptians (average people, elites and governments) to even know about real threats against their own existence. This is the disastrous level of colonial dependence and utilization that the colonial powers implemented in Egypt over the past two centuries.

The decade-long dispute, which began in 2011 as Ethiopia unilaterally began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), has been characterised by firm state-centric approaches among riparian states. The inability (or unwillingness) of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to consider compromises for an equitable sharing of these transboundary water resources has undermined the spirit of cooperation and, with it, efforts to place human security and the human right of access to water have also been overshadowed.

A new hydro-political order is emerging in the Nile Basin. Upstream riparian states have improved their bargaining power vis-à-vis downstream countries by adopting a common position in the negotiations over a new framework agreement to govern the utilisation of the Nile water. Some upstream riparians have unilaterally constructed hydraulic projects that threaten Egypt’s hegemonic position in the basin, the most notable of which is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Whether these developments will lead to a more equitable utilisation of water resources and a more cooperative order will depend on the policies of the riparian states, especially in the Eastern Nile. Respect of the Declaration of Principles on the GERD signed between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan could help build trust between the three countries after years of tensions around the project. Beyond that, a basin-wide plan for the utilisation of water resources would not only maximise the benefits from the river and address the common challenges facing the basin, but also reduce the political costs of tensions on future projects.

Transboundary river basins are under increasing pressure due to population growth, agricultural and industrial developments, and climate change, as well as river pollution. Water scarcity is on the increase due to the increasing gap between water demands and supply. This will result in more tensions, disputes, conflicts, and deadlocks in negotiations over water distribution, length of time it takes to fill the reservoir, and allocation. Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River with a hydropower capacity of 6,000 MW. The total estimated cost of the project is US$ 4.8 Billion and will be the largest dam in Africa, which is much larger than the Aswan Dam in Egypt. Regional controversies have risen over the construction of the dam between Ethiopia and the downstream countries (Sudan and

Egypt depends on the Nile River to secure 95% of the water needed for different purposes as drinking, household uses, agriculture, fishing source, water transportation, tourism, electricity generation from the High Dam and industry. Although, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is essential to Ethiopia’s development, many research pointed out its negative impact on Egypt. Although previous researches addressed the problem of GERD using stochastic data, they used deterministic methods . This paper aims to use a stochastic method to assess risks of GERD on Egypt, and propose strategies to mitigate these risks. Management actions and policies are proposed to manage fresh water resources and mitigate GERD risks. The study concluded that the expected amount of saved water using proposed strategies exceeds the expected losses caused by GERD by 12.1 Billion m3. Adopting the suggested strategies could reduce or eliminate the impact of GERD on Egypt

The world is endowed with so much more trans-boundary water river. Among those, the east Africa’s Nile River, which stretches 6,825 km across 11 riparian states all the way to Mediterranean sea, is not only considered the longest river on [earth], but also one of the most contentious one. Throughout the centuries, it was in recent memory that because of the failed most contentious US brokered negotiation over a particular Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), among the most key player of Nile river basin – Ethiopia, Egypt & Sudan –, issue has reached its pick and become the regional security crises. Again, Egypt’s recent move in taking the matter to the US, Arab league, UN Security Council adds a fuel to the existing already burning Nile Basin dispute. Having the latter move, the author tried to analyze the matter from the wider perspective of the Nile Hydro hegemony and its counter Hydro-hegemonic movement in general, and the motive behind the GERD construction alongside its threat over counter Hydro-Hegemonic strategy will be scrutinized in this Article.

Recent developments of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam aiming to utilize the River Nile’s water for electricity production sparked serious debates in Africa. Under construction since 2011, the project has severe geopolitical consequences not only in its immediate neighbourhood but also in the downstream countries such as Sudan and Egypt that are almost exclusively reliant on the river’s water for industrial, agricultural, and household purposes. Although the Nile is the longest river on Earth, its water is shared by tens of millions of users in a region characterized by water scarcity. Therefore, the Ethiopian dam, with its potentially negative consequences, is considered an existential threat for Egypt and contributes to the political tensions between the two distant countries. This analysis aims to present the political choices behind this megaproject focusing on Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia and the impacts that different scenarios of water usage (how fast the reservoir behind the Dam is filled) may have on the downstream countries. In this sense, negotiations on the completion of the Dam and the hydroelectric power plant are crucial for Egypt’s water resources. My analysis tries to shed light on the importance of this topic in the Egyptian political discourse and show the changes in the political leeway of Egyptian leadership since 2011. As the case provides yet another illustration of interconnected environmental issues, my research also highlights the political and economic dilemmas embedded in similar situations.

The tension between Cairo and Addis Ababa reached a boiling point in July 2020, when Ethiopia began filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This followed years of fruitless talks aimed at formulating understandings and months of accelerated discussions, including negotiations mediated by the United States and the African Union, which have thus far come to naught. For both sides this is a strategic, “existential” issue with practical and symbolic repercussions, which renders a compromise difficult. This article is now available in a PDF file in the Hebrew version.

The English Version is Available Here: https://bit.ly/32ubfI9

Das Säbelrasseln Ägyptens in der Nilwasserfrage stößt an seine Grenzen, meint Tobias von Lossow. Da die Notwendigkeit zu kooperieren stetig zunimmt, müssen Ägypten und Äthiopien ihre politischen Absichtserklärungen endlich glaubhaft mit Leben füllen.

The Nile River (NR) is an international river shared by eleven riparian countries. It is the primary water resource and the life artery for its downstream countries such as Egypt and Sudan. In Ethiopia which is one of most important water sources of the NR, a study for constructing the Renaissance dam on the Blue Nile close to its border with Sudan was initiated. The dam is designed to create a reservoir that will have a capacity of holding about 74 billion cubic meters of water at the full supply level. This paper aims to study the effects of constructing such dam on the NR streamflow, especially downstream the dam and its impacts on Egypt and Sudan. The study includes simulation works for all possible scenarios from starting the dam construction up to reaching the full capacity of its reservoir to identify impacts of this dam on the Ethiopia and the downstream countries. The possibility of the dam damage also investigated via simulations from HEC-RAC model. Results showed some mer...

Ethiopia has been building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River since 2011. During this period relations between Egypt and Ethiopia became strained with mutual threats and accusations. Moreover, there is a risk of water conflict in Africa, which would completely destabilize East Africa.

The Nile (i.e. The Ethiopian Blue Nile) is the longest stream on earth flows a distance of 1,529 km from its source, conceived out of Ethiopian Lake Tana highlands a spring called Gish Abay in Ethiopia and spill into the Egypt Mediterranean coast; more than 300 million people rely on Nile's. Shared among 11countries Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda; the river basin takes 10% of the total Africa content and 40% of Africa's population live in the Nile River basin while the White Nile, the smaller source originates in central Africa.