Political Dynamics

The article aims to elaborate political dynasty that developed in local politics arena.
The emergence of political dynasty is indicated by several points. First of all, the failure
of function from local political party to conducts political regeneration. Secondly,
high cost democracy which impeding public to participate in public office succession.
Third, political power from local elite was uneven, thus resulting power centralization
in few strong local elite that transforming dynasty. Patrimonialism is not always
becoming main perspective to analyzing political dynasty. There are many alternative
political perspectives to analyze this case. This paper used familism political culture
to elaborate political dynasty in local politics arena. The result of this research shows
political preference from the local leader is considered to choose his family member in
governmental succession to cover up his political sins. Familism also influenced from
political source such as tribalism, populism, and feudalism that distinguishing local
political dynasty in Indonesia.

Political dynasties as a phenomenon in the Philippine political system are commonly seen as an impediment to development. There have been numerous attempts to curb the existence of political dynasties in the Philippines, as shown by the number of anti-political dynasty bills passed in the Philippine legislative bodies. However, there is a growing concern regarding the validity of these claims. The researchers of this study determined whether or not political dynasties are indeed the inhibitors of underdevelopment in the Philippines. Moreover, the study tested political dynasties' effectivity as the facilitators of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), to provide concrete indicators for development. The study utilized the Principal Agent Theory, which allowed viewing SDGs as the basic goods and services that the constituents demand from their respective agents-which are the local chief executives. A qualitative comparative analysis which employed key informant interviews, analysis of ecological statistics, and a verification process through a constituency survey of Mandaluyong City and Muntinlupa City was utilized in the conduct of the study. The study revealed that the LGU can fulfill SDG 16 whether or not it is headed by a political dynasty and that its governance does not differ that much from one another.

In the prevailing globalized world order, shifting economic regimes is principally understood via the overriding-external-impetus lens where international demand holds sway over domestic policy making. Considering the complexity of the process and the possibility of varying outcomes, the perspective evidently limits the function of domestic politics in changing regimes. In elucidating how the dynamics of domestic politics respond to external impetuses and play out in relation to regime shifts, this paper looks into the two cases of regime shifts in retail in the Philippines: Republic Act (RA) 1180, a protectionist regime enacted in 1954 and RA 8762, a liberalized regime legislated in 2000. The study examines the interface and convergence of three salient factors— external-internal impetus, presidential intervention and the changing dynamics in the retail sector— that were pivotal in both regime shifts. Specifically, the external-internal impetus helped set off the move for regime shift; the sitting President played a crucial role in the success of the legislation in Congress; and the retail sector exemplified varying dynamics (e.g. consolidation in RA 1180 and fragmentation in RA 8762) which facilitated the enactment of the laws. The study also underscores two key points: (1) while the initiative to adopt or change economic regimes for a government will continue to have external impetus, the success of regime shift as well as the substance of its specific policy will be essentially determined by the workings of domestic politics; and (2) the legislative experience characterizes the contemporary link between global influence and domestic dynamics in policy making. The paper closes with a note on the case study’s implications on retail globalization in Southeast Asia.

Tomando distancia de los diferentes procesos en curso que llevan a reconstruir “la historia del Baguazo”, el presente estudio toma en cuenta la percepción del tiempo pasado y las diferentes lecturas de los eventos propuestas por los mismos manifestantes, poniendo en valor los aspectos que hasta ahora han quedado poco percibidos por las fuentes oficiales. En sus aparentes contradicciones, digresiones temporales y silencios, estas memorias son el testimonio más profundo y directo de un momento histórico particular del contexto regional del Alto Marañón. El conjunto de estas diferentes miradas nos ayudará en el desarrollo de una reflexión poco común; es decir; el esfuerzo por comprender un panorama de conflicto reciente, a partir de las percepciones e imaginarios de sus mismos actores: los awajún y los “colonos” del Alto Marañón.

The debt-driven development strategy was fundamentally about the massive infusion of external capital via foreign loans to boost the economy. This strategy started in the 1960s when the Macapagal administration decided to take in and utilize external borrowings, specifically the Stabilization Fund offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This decision created a “path” and made foreign debts a key component of the government’s economic agenda. The subsequent Marcos administration, influenced by the established financial ties between the government and international financial institutions, did not only continue the economic strategy but extensively accelerated the external borrowings. This move transformed foreign loans as the engine of the economy. In time, the debt-driven development strategy became an established pattern and was institutionalized since it generated increasing returns and positive feedback that are self-reinforcing. This economic strategy has mutated into a “debt-trap” and has been underpinned by subsequent government laws (specifically, Presidential Decree 1177, Proclamation 50 and Executive Order 292). Consequently, the debt-driven development strategy became path dependent, which is persistent, difficult to reverse and “locks-in” on succeeding governments.

Management of public secondary schools has always been a serious issue to stakeholders including those in government and the civil society. ‘A school is as good as its Board of Management’. This is what prompted on this study, which sought to critically analyze the impact of political dynamics on management of public secondary schools in Kenya. The main goals were to critically analyze and find out the impact of Political Dynamics and how it influences the criteria used in the selection process, objectives of the ad-hoc nominating committee and the personal attributes of the so nominated members on the management of public secondary schools. The study made use of both qualitative survey methods and critical analysis design The study was able to establish that most Boards of management were either based on clanism, ethnicism, cronyism, nepotism or political and religious inclinations. All these factors had a significant influence on how schools were run and the overall effectiveness of the school boards of management. This study explored new strategies of putting in place an effective school board of management which focuses more on managerial and leadership skills rather than clanism, nepotism, cronyism and other political dynamics. This would enhance efficiency and effectiveness in an effort to realize the school's goals and objectives. The study recommended that prudent measures be put in place to ensure that only people of integrity, excellent management and leadership skills with a commitment to serve the schools’ interests are nominated into the board of management. Those selected into the board be taken through proper induction and continuous capacity building in leadership and management. The study also recommended that the ad – hoc nominating committee be transferred into an oversight board that walks along the board of management and continuously mentors, monitors, trains and evaluates the management board.

Гибридные режимы, сочетающие наличие демократических
институтов, в той или иной мере декоративных, с реальными авторитарными
отношениями и порядками, заметно различаются по своей устойчивости.
Поскольку вопрос о власти в таких режимах не решается через открытую
политическую конкуренцию в ходе выборов, особую значимость обретает неинституционализированная
конфликтная динамика. В статье построена схематичная
модель взаимодействия Режима и Протеста, включающая 10 постулатов,
базирующихся на результатах обобщающих исследований. Показано,
что если эти постулаты верны, то достаточно гибкий и способный к адаптации
гибридный режим неизбежно соскальзывает к неототалитаризму по принципу
храпового механизма. Выявлено неоднозначное влияние на устойчивость гибридных
режимов неототалитарных практик, а также соотношения бюрократических
институтов и неопатримониальных порядков.
Среди современных гибридных режимов есть достаточно стабильные
(послереволюционный Иран, Казахстан при Нурсултане Назарбаеве, Россия
при Владимире Путине и др.). Известны также режимы с прерывистой
и неустойчивой динамикой (Россия в 1990-х годах, Египет после Тахрира,
Венесуэла после смерти Уго Чавеса и др.). Каждый из этих случаев обеспечивает
эмпирическую базу для проверки представленной модели. В свою очередь,
эта модель открывает возможности для анализа причин успеха и провала
режимных и протестных стратегий, позволяет объяснять существенное
разнообразие в характере и устойчивости режимов, выявлять условия, масштаб
и эффекты появления неототалитарных практик и институтов, а также
вести мониторинг социально-политической динамики и прогнозировать ее
траектории.
Hybrid regimes, which combine democratic institutions, to
some extent cosmetic, with real authoritarian relations and orders, strikingly
differ in their stability. Under such regimes the non-institutionalized conflict
dynamics becomes crucial, because power issues are not solved through
open political competition during elections. The article sketches a model of
interaction between The Regime and The Protest, which includes 10 postulates
on the basis of the results of the synthesis studies. The author shows
that if these postulates are correct, a sufficiently flexible hybrid regime,
which is able to adapt, inevitably slips to neo-totalitarianism in accordance
with the principle of a ratchet mechanism. Neo-totalitarian practices, as well
as the relationship between bureaucratic institutions and neo-patrimonial orders,
were shown to exert an ambiguous influence upon the stability of hybrid
regimes.
Some modern hybrid regimes are quite stable (post-revolutionary Iran,
Kazakhstan under Nursultan Nazarbayev, Russia under Vladimir Putin, etc.).
There are also regimes characterized by the intermittent and unstable dynamics
(Russia in the 1990s, Egypt after Tahrir, Venezuela after Hugo Chavez’
death, etc.). Each of these cases provides an empirical basis for testing the
presented model. In its turn, this model opens up opportunities for analyzing
reasons for the success and failure of the regime and protest strategies, for explaining
the significant diversity in the nature and stability of the regimes, for
identifying the conditions, scale and effects of neo-totalitarian practices and
institutions, and for monitoring socio-political dynamics and predicting its
trajectories.

Policy modification is an area of policy change least explored, as most of the scholarly outputs have concentrated on policy shift. As a legislative process, policy modification refers to the re-legislation of a recently enacted statute in a relatively short period of time to rectify or adjust it to some domestic or external demand in the political system. This definition presupposes two dimensions: first, an initial law is passed by the legislature; and second, after a relatively short span of time, the policy is amended in response to some post-enactment request, petition, or pressure. Moreover, the legislative action entails continuity since the aim is merely to improve or enhance the existing policy due to some post-enactment demand, and not to reverse or drastically change the overall make-up of the policy. This study analyzes three cases of statutory re-legislations— the Foreign Investment Act (R.A. 7042 to R.A. 8179), the Anti-Dumping Act (R.A. 7843 to R.A. 8752), and the Anti-Money Laundering Act (R.A. 9160 to R.A. 9194)—  to empirically verify and substantiate the assumptions in literature as well as illustrate the intricacies of policy modifications in the Philippines. The paper contends that the policy modification  of the three cases can be elucidated through the following: first, the FIA as internally driven via government learning; second, the ADA by the interplay of domestic strategy and external dynamics; and lastly, the AMLA as externally driven via coercive measures.

Comparative political scientists have sought to remedy their subdiscipline’s structuralist tendencies by paying greater analytical attention to transformative political events. Yet, our conceptual understanding of events remains rudimentary. The article addresses this conceptual gap in two ways. First, it foregrounds symbolic meaning-making as the constitutive attribute of events. Second, it demonstrates that events are not inherently agency-facilitating by developing the concept of prospectively framed events. These are occurrences that actors know will take place, but of whose outcome they are uncertain. Political challengers frame the upcoming event so as to discursively trap incumbents into political action they would rather not undertake. The article demonstrates this process by tracing the conflict between secessionist challengers and political incumbents within the Catalan nationalist movement between 2006 and 2010. The concluding section discusses the causal implications of the argument.

Аннотация. Проведенное исследование, основанное на количественном анализе данных по динамике цен на нефть и нестабильности, показывает, что затяжное падение цен на нефть ведет к практиче-ски неизбежному росту социально-политической нестабильности в нефтеэкспортирующих странах, а систематическое их повышение служит мощным фактором социально-политической стабилизации. Риски особенно вырастают при затяжном падении цен ниже уровня в 40 долларов за баррель, а при за-тяжном падении этих цен ниже уровня в 35 долларов очень заметный рост социально-политической нестабильности в странах-экспортерах нефти становится практически неизбежным. Исследование выполнено в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ в 2016 году при поддержке Российского научного фонда (проект № 14-11-00634). Annotation. Our quantitative analysis suggests that prolonged decreases in oil prices tend to lead to an almost inevitable growth of social and political instability in oil-exporting countries, and their systematic increase serves as a powerful factor in the social and political stabilization. These risks grow especially during a protracted fall in prices below the level of 40 dollars per barrel, while with a protracted fall in prices below the level of 35 dollars a very marked increase in sociopolitical destabilization in oil-exporting countries becomes virtually inevitable. The analysis also reveals three-year time lags – though a strong steady drop in oil prices immediately leads to a marked increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization in oil-exporting countries, this risk becomes really high three years after that.

This dissertation develops a theoretical approach of political dynamics for examining the reform for freedom of information in Brazil, which took place between 2005 and 2012, in the context of “good governance.” Reforms driven around the globe in this context have been legitimized and guided by international standards based on the logic that freedom of information mitigates corruption insofar as it allows for the regulation of politics. The policies resulting from these processes have some ambiguities in relation with these standards since they are more adherent to them in themes associated to the substantive dimension of the right to information than those related to the regulation of its exercise. Here, it is assumed that this difference stems from the centrality of issues of agency and power in unfolding these reforms, although they are based on the discourse on the need to regulate politics to ensure development. In the Brazilian case, this ambiguity is most striking. The hypothesis is that the political dynamics of disputes and accommodation of preferences among key actors forged the reform for freedom of information in Brazil. The examination of the Brazilian case indicates the engagement of governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations and specific groups, organized into coalitions both for the convergence to international standards and for the conformation of the new policy to pre-existing arrangements and structures. This process was marked by controversies between priorities and secondary preferences of key actors regarding scope, maximum term of secrecy, and delegation of the decision on appeals and reclassification of information, and coordination of implementation. The resulting policy reflected the presence of political dynamics around the controversial themes and the difference between levels of adherence of their components corresponded to the indicated ambiguity. It is pointed out that the controversial theme linked to the priorities of the coalition for convergence, associated with the substantive dimension of the right to information, is more adherent than those that were prioritized by the coalition for conformation, linked to its regulation. The results suggest that political dynamics explains the indicated ambiguity and, this way, issues of agency and power matter even in reforms driven in the context of “good governance.”

Time and again, scholars have interpreted policy making in the Philippines using the weak state framework— Philippine polity is characterized by a homogenous-controlling legislature and an ineffective-subservient bureaucracy. The legislation of the foreign investment act, however, suggests that a different dynamics existed between the bureaucracy and the legislature. First, the bureaucracy and the legislature were not homogenous. Despite having ideological unity, the government agencies and the legislative bodies took varying stances during the legislative deliberations. Second, the bureaucracy was influential in policy making. The influence of the bureaucratic agencies was evident throughout the legislative proceedings, from the agenda setting to the policy outcome. Third, the legislature was reactive to the bureaucratic inputs in policy legislation. The bureaucratic proposals and opinions were readily accepted, heavily relied on and served as the basis for the responses of the legislative bodies. Overall, the case of the making of foreign investment law reveals that, although lawmaking is technically the domain of the legislature, the bureaucracy holds sway in policy making.

The study is about the dynamics among the actors in the making of the Foreign Bank Liberalization Act or Republic Act 7721. The central issue in the legislation was whether to have a restricted or extensive liberalization of the banking sector. The policy divide was between the Senate-BSP-BAP-resident foreign banks’ bloc, which was advocating for a single-mode of entry for foreign banks, and the House-FCCP-the rural-development banks-the academic-business-consumer groups’ bloc, which was endorsing a multiple-mode of entry for foreign banks. The Senate-BSP-BAP-resident foreign banks’ bloc prevailed since their bloc benefited from three intertwined factors in the legislation process. First, the inevitability of the liberalization of the banking sector left the domestic commercial banks with no recourse but to take an all-out effort to push for a limited liberalization law. Second, the Senate-BSP-BAP-resident foreign banks’ bloc was aided by the collective action dilemma among the actors. And third, the internal dynamics among the members of the Senate and the House made it very difficult for the former and tolerable for the latter to compromise.

Tomando distancia de los diferentes procesos en curso que llevan a reconstruir “la historia del Baguazo”, el presente estudio toma en cuenta la percepcion del tiempo pasado y las diferentes lecturas de los eventos propuestas por los mismos manifestantes, poniendo en valor los aspectos que hasta ahora han quedado poco percibidos por las fuentes oficiales. En sus aparentes contradicciones, digresiones temporales y silencios, estas memorias son el testimonio mas profundo y directo de un momento historico particular del contexto regional del Alto Maranon. El conjunto de estas diferentes miradas nos ayudara en el desarrollo de una reflexion poco comun; es decir; el esfuerzo por comprender un panorama de conflicto reciente, a partir de las percepciones e imaginarios de sus mismos actores: los awajun y los “colonos” del Alto Maranon.

опыт систематического приложения классических и современных концепций исторической макросоциологии к объяснению известной цикличности истории России, к осознанию причин нынешнего положения страны и к задачам разработки ориентиров, приоритетов, стратегий гражданской самоорганизации, институциональных преобразований, внутренней и внешней политики.
Сделан обзор обширного ряда направлений бурно развивающейся в мире дисциплины — исторической макросоциологии, разработана общая модель исторической динамики, предназначенная для концептуализации ритмов макросоциальных изменений (перемежения подъемов, упадков и периодов стабильности), выстроены понятийные связи между ментальными, социальными структурами и динамическими процессами микро-, мезо- и макро- уровней, систематизированы наиболее конструктивные концепции и модели экосоциальной, социально-политической, геополитической, геоэкономической и геокультурной динамики, сформулированы условия адекватности ответов общества на вызовы, сценарии и развилки политического развития, условия становления демократии.
На основе этого весьма сложного и богатого понятийного аппарата сделана попытка выявить природу «русской власти», раскрыть внутренний порождающий механизм циклов российской истории, показать его динамическую связь с национальным менталитетом (как разнообразием типовых габитусов), с внешними динамическими сферами. Показана структура негативных процессов в современной России, кроющихся под внешним покровом «стабильности» (контуры деградации, системная коррупция, способы ухода от рисков, порождающие более опасные риски и т. д.). На тех же макросоциологических основаниях разработаны принципы, ориентиры, приоритеты и эскизные долговременные стратегии страны в гражданской, социально-политической, геоэкономической, геокультурной и геополитической сферах.

The policy aiming to provide the basic needs for private workers that are retired, unemployed, or unemployable due to a disability or disadvantage, the so-called social security policy, was introduced for several times in Thailand since this country began its democratization process in 1932. However, the Social Security Act was enacted and effectively in force in September 1990. Why the attempt to initiate and/or implement social security policy before 1990 succeeded or failed in Thailand? Relying on the theoretical approach that views the state as a social relation, this paper argues that social security policy has not been initiated by one particular government either in response to the demand or support of the employers or social movements, nor even the interests of the government or one particular state agency itself. Rather, the development of social security policy in a particular time was part of a broader effort to deal with and manage the tensions and conflicts that have emerged as a result of Thailand's capitalist transition.

The split to the left by African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL) members headed by Julius Malema, seen as a maverick by some, were widely reported on by South African media between late 2011 and 2014. This article by Francois de Wet and Ian Liebenberg looks at the political economy of one particular province, Limpopo, in South Africa. The question is whether Malema will be able to gain votes in the future in poorer provinces or was the split from the ANC and gaining access to parliament by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) a once-off phenomenon.