Population Policies

How should we understand such discursive patterns? From where do the involved mental maps come from, which we understand as key ideational mechanisms about how knowledge on demographic and migratory processes are structured? How are various demographic developments and actors of the world represented? How should we interpret anti-immigration demographic nationalism, which can be understood as a combination of selective anti-immigration discourses and regulations with straightforward, state-sponsored pronatalism and the use of “own resources” for the sake of improving our standing within Europe? How can we link these discursive and political events and the underlying mental maps to demographic structures and changes? What challenges do the structural processes of fertility, migration, and mortality show, and how can we interpret the political reaction given to them during the Orbán regime? First, I shall provide a historical-structural analysis of demographic processes and then review policies and institutionalized norms that shape mental maps and that are shaped by mental maps. Finally, I will look at the interrelationship between material structures, processes, and political discourses in order to complete a complex and dynamic analysis of Hungarian demographic nationalism in the 2010s.

(English follows)

Mariage et famille dans le Golfe arabe : vers un bouleversement politique ?

Depuis la fin des années 1970, la nuptialité a connu des transformations importantes dans tous les pays arabes, dont les plus significatives sont l’augmentation de l’âge moyen au premier mariage et l’émergence du célibat féminin. Les États du Golfe, étudiés dans cet article, n’échappent pas à cette évolution. Or, le mariage dans le monde arabe, rite de passage à l’âge adulte, est aussi le lieu de la reproduction des institutions : le mariage est donc une question politique. Après une présentation des évolutions récentes de la nuptialité dans les six pays du Golfe, l’article analyse l’impact de ces mutations sur les dynamiques sociales caractérisant cette région (les contraintes socio-économiques posées au choix du conjoint, les relations entre sexes et entre générations, l’évolution des structures familiales). Les données montrent que sont partout défiés l’idéal arabe du mariage précoce et universel, la domination masculine et celle des aînés. En conséquence, cette évolution des comportements sociodémographiques pourrait également menacer les pouvoirs autoritaires et « néopatriarcaux » de la région. Une analyse des débats populaires et politiques menés sur la question du mariage en Arabie saoudite montre en effet que celle-ci est instrumentalisée dans le processus de réforme sociopolitique en cours dans le royaume, afin de contrer l’emprise de certains acteurs sur le champ social.

Mots clés : nuptialité ; mariage ; divorce ; famille ; structures familiales, démographie politique ; politique démographique ; politique sociale ; pays du Golfe ; Arabie Saoudite ; Koweït ; Émirats arabes unis ; Oman ; Qatar ; Bahreïn.

Marriage and Family in the Arab Gulf States: Towards a Political Transition?

Since the end of the 1970’s, marriage patterns have undergone tremendous changes in every Arab country. Most significant among them are the increase in the age at first marriage and the emergence of female celibacy, as experienced in the Arab Gulf. Yet, marriage in the Arab world is a rite of passage to adulthood, as well as an essential element in the process of reproducing sociopolitical institutions. This gives the marriage issue a political outreach which is the topic of the paper. After describing recent changes in the marriage patterns experienced in the six Arab Gulf States over the last four decades, the paper analyses the impact of such changes on the social dynamics characterizing the region (socioeconomic constraints put to marrying and spouse’ choice; male-female and intergenerational relationships; the evolution of family structures). Data emphasize that everywhere in the region, the ideal of early and universal marriages, as well as males’ and elders’ domination are fading. Therefore, the evolution of socio-demographic behaviors may challenge authoritarian and “neopatriarcal” powers in the region. As the matter of facts, the analysis of popular and political debates tackling the marriage issue in Saudi Arabia shows that the topic is instrumentalised within the reform process ongoing in the Kingdom, in order to counter the influence of some political forces.

Keywords: marriage; divorce; family; family structures; political demography; demographic policy; social policy; Gulf States; Saudi Arabia; Kuwait; United Arab Emirates; Oman; Qatar; Bahrain.

Abidin Özmen 1930’larda kaleme aldığı ve ‘siyah rapor’unda, devletin nüfus verilerine dayanarak Kürt nüfusunun Türk nüfusundan ‘anormal’ derecede hızlı arttığı iddiasında bulunmuştu. Bu rapor ve dile getirilen iddialar, Uğur Mumcu tarafından gün yüzüne çıkarılana kadar uzun bir süre gizliliğini korumuş ve bu tarihten sonra Kürt sorununu ele alan çalışmaların bir kısmı için kaynak haline gelmiştir. Oysa Özmen’in iddiaları doğru değildir. Çünkü 'konuşma dili' verilerini ‘anadil' olarak ve en önemlisi de ‘etnik’ veri' olarak kabul etmesidir.

A jelen tanulmány egy olyan módszertani keretet vázol fel, amelynek segítségével újrafogalmazható a csángókérdés  a második világháború idején megnyilvánuló román biopolitika és népességpolitika kontextusában. Mondanivalómat a meglévő szakirodalomra  szeretném alapozni, megvizsgálva az illető diskurzusok és politikák közvetlen hatását az olyan kisebbségi közösségekre, amelyek az elrománosítás és a kitelepítés célpontjai voltak –, vagyis a jelenségek alulnézetből való vizsgálatát kísérelem meg. Ekként jobban felmérhetjük az uralkodó nacionalista diskurzusok és politika hatását a romániai etnikai és felekezeti enklávékra.

A romániai levéltárakban folytatott kutatások, valamint a háború alatti sajtóanyag azt sugallja, hogy a biopolitikai diskurzus használata nem korlátozódott a kormányra és az értelmiségi körökre, hanem közvetlen vagy közvetett hatással volt a romániai kisebbségi közösségekre, beférkőzvén ezek politikai, sőt vallásos diskurzusába. Egy egyre fokozódó nacionalista környezetben a romániai nemzeti kisebbségeket nem tekintették kompatibilisnek a homogén nemzetállam létével. Hát akkor mi is lenne a teendő velük? Románia szenvedélyes nemzetépítői számára a válasz egyértelmű volt: vagy kitoloncolni a fajilag „nem tiszta” kisebbségi csoportot, vagy beolvasztani a nemzeti étoszba, és végül is a nemzet testébe.

Számba véve az említett diskurzusokat és politikákat, amelyek Romániában a háború idején léteztek – és ezek hatását a kisebbségi közösségekre –, közelebb kerülünk a lokális események (mint pl. a moldvai csángókkal kapcsolatosak) holisztikusabb megértéséhez. Ekként újra vizsgáljuk az etnicitás és nemzeti identitás helyénvalóságát és instrumentalizálását, valamint a közösségi nemzeti öntudat reprezentálását.

مساله این مقاله، نبود شناخت درباره ویژگی‌های گفتمان‌های جمعیتی است که در رسانه‌ها تولید و بازتولید می‌شوند، و می‌توانند بر تصمیم‌گیری‌های سیاسی و شخصی اثر بگذارند. در این مقاله با توجه به نقش گروه‌های متخصصان و ذینفعان در تنویر افکار عموم و یاری رساندن به برنامه‌ریزان در تنظیم سیاست‌های جمعیتی متونی که رویکرد صاحب‌نظران از جمله متخصصان جمعیت‌شناسی را در این باره بازتاب می‌دهند، با روش تحلیل گفتمان انتقادی فرکلاف در سه سطح توصیف، تفسیر و تبیین مطالعه می‌شوند. این مطالعه پس از مرور گفتمان‌های علمی جمعیت‌شناسی و گفتمان‌های سیاسی حاکم بر ایران که سیاست-های جمعیت را متاثر می‌سازند به تحلیل گفتمان انتقادی متون مربوط می‌پردازد و نشان می‌دهد که گفتمان برخی از گروه‌های ذینفع، بحرانی؛ و گفتمان مربوط به جمعیت‌شناسان، گفتمان طبیعی است. در مرحله تبیین با تشریح فرایندهای نهادی و اجتماعی این گفتمان‌ها نشان داده می‌شود که گفتمان بحرانی در رسانه‌ها با توجه به وجوه مختلف گفتمان و با شدت بیشتری بازتولید شده، حال آن‌که گفتمان طبیعی، تنها از وجه توسعه مورد توجه واقع شده است.
Abstract
The issue that this paper considered is the lack of knowledge about the characteristics of the demographic discourses which are produced and reproduced in media. The importance of discourses is related to their ability to affect personal and political decisions. Since experts and stakeholders play important role to enlighten public opinion and to help policymakers, this paper uses critical discourse for analyzing demographic discourses. This study makes a review on scientific demographic discourses and prevailing political discourses in Iran that have effect on demographic policies. Then it does critical discourse analysis and illustrates the main discourse for demographers are natural, and for stakeholders, it is critical. In explanation, institutional and social processes of mentioned discourses are explained. It concludes that media make use critical discourse more than natural one.

This study provides an empirical investigation on the impact of fertility intentions on residential relocation behaviours of partnered women during periods of housing price inflation in Australia. The finding suggests that there is a significant impact of fertility intentions on residential mobility. Couples with strong fertility intentions tend to move from one owner-occupied dwelling to another with more capacity in more affordable local government areas. However, there is substantial heterogeneity around housing market conditions. The translation of fertility intention into relocation was not observed in housing markets with high affordability pressures. This study extends previous research on fertility intention and relocation behaviour by considering how housing market conditions can interfere the translation of fertility intentions into residential moves and the realisation of fertility intentions in births. KEYWORDS fertility intention, housing markets, residential relocation, simultaneous equation models, theory of planned behaviour

This essay, in the form of a research agenda, focuses on the politics of population movements from the inception of the modern Iraqi state to the present. Based mainly on secondary sources, it asks questions, offers hypotheses and opens up a number of conceptual pathways in part drawing from Michel Foucault's notion of governmentality. It is proposed to consider how population movements were affected by the state and other political actors, particularly in the process of nation building and in recent struggles over the control of the state. Within this framework, displacement and policies restricting the mobility of people or forcing their emplacement in certain locations could be read as forms of control political actors have exerted over populations. Other instances of population movements can be interpreted as the uncontrolled results of policies of political or economic engineering, crises of the political system or political decisions leading to armed conflicts. It is suggested that, beyond the numerous and brutal ruptures in Iraqi political history, a study of the politics of population movements throughout the modern history of Iraq identifies some of the continuities that have existed in the exercise of power under successive regimes but also the sociological continuum that exists between states and would-be-states. A further argument is that examining the multiple effects of governmentality on human mobility and immobility in Iraq allows a possible reading of the way in which certain practices of power and certain political identities have been historically encoded leading to patterns of reproduction of violence.

Today, the increasing population of the elderly in the demographic structure and planning and policies aiming to meet their needs have become an important issue all over the world. The economic, social and physical limitations and inadequacies that occur with old age affect both the social life and active participation of the elderly individuals and their relatives in different areas. Improvements concerning this population group; will affect the social, economic and social welfare levels of the current population, and will support social sustainability by increasing the welfare levels of future generations. The 'development plans' programmed to meet social demands, along with the policies that guide the development of the country, also set out the service targets for the changing population structure. The five-year development plans prepared by the Ministry of Development are strategies and policies targeting the country's developments in social, cultural and economic fields. Eleven development plans, covering strategic plans have been prepared and implemented since 1963. All institutional and structural arrangements are provided by taking into consideration the social life and demographic structure within the scope of Development Plans; and sustainable social, environmental and economic development goals are also set. The aim of the study is to show the change of the policies that is foreseen for the elderly population and progress of the development plans that will meet the needs of the country and ensure its social welfare over the years with a social sustainability perspective. The method for creating the study was examining how the elderly population policies for each five-year period changed over the years by analyzing of all development plans. In this context, the study aims to contribute to the direction in which policies aiming to increase the social welfare and economic life participation of the elderly population should be handled in the context of social sustainability.
Keywords: Development Plans, Old Age, Population Policies, Social Sustainability and Social Welfare.

The article elaborates the concept of demographization in light of the current revival of population oriented agendas and demography as an important field of policy consultancy with special emphasis on Germany. It does so by referring to the Foucauldian concepts of biopolitics and gov-ernmentality, but also by exploring the limits of these concepts and by integrating them into an intersectional approach, emphasizing racist and classist selectivities and the genealogy of a Mal-thusian matrix. Moreover, the analysis elaborates a specific approach to reproductive relations as a biopolitical 'hinge'. The article begins by exposing two empirical phases of demographization in Germany and then introduces the concept of demographization, distinguishing between different levels of critical analysis. Further on, a specific combination of purely quantitative and qualita-tive/selective rationales is presented as a Malthusian matrix and as central to understanding the processes of demographization. The following section addresses reproductive relations by combining the analysis of an individualizing governmentality of the reproductive self with the analysis of strategies of national-racist and classist exclusions at the biopolitical pole of population. Finally, the author explores how to apply the concept of demographization to transnational programmes of 'population dynamics' and anti-natalist policies in the Global South, and introduces further questions for theory development.

This book sheds light on the history of Greek eugenics during the post-war period. At this time, eugenics had already been condemned by international declarations. AlexandraBarmpouti, however, challenges the assumption that eugenics disappeared and confirms the continuity of eugenics after the Second World War. She looks at the Greek paradigm because it included the establishment of a eugenics society in 1953 and revealed the contact of Greek eugenicists with renowned British and American birth control advocates. The book covers for the first time the untold history of contraception in Greece during the 1950s and 1960s when the use of female contraceptives was forbidden. It thus argues that birth control was ideologically based on eugenics. In the same context, the book discusses significant breakthroughs related to eugenics, such as the rise of the feminist movement and the advance of human genetics that took place during this period.

"Why does Eastern Europe have the lowest fertility in the world? Most explanations focus on the consequences of upheaval in that region during the 1990s. These so called “transition” explanations miss a major part of the story. For the Romanian case, we show that the decline in fertility over the 1990s represents the continuation of a longstanding trend that was only interrupted by the extremely efficient pro-natalist policies inaugurated in the 1960s. We conclude that the conventional transition explanations of the 1990s fertility decline in Eastern Europe are incomplete
because they fail to give due weight to the effect of population policies.

Keywords: Eastern Europe; population policy; Romania; fertility decline; abortion; history""

When asked what a desirable fertility level for populations might be, most politicians, journalists, and even social scientists would say it is around two children per woman, a level that has been labelled by demographers “replacement-level fertility.” The reasons given for considering this level of fertility as something to be aiming at usually include maintaining the size of the labour force and stabilizing the old-age dependency ratio.

In this paper, we scrutinize this wide-spread view by introducing education in addition to age and sex as a further relevant source of observable population heterogeneity. We consider several criteria for assessing the long term implications of alternative fertility levels and present numerical simulations with a view on minimizing the education-weighted total dependency ratio and complement this with the goal of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emission in the context of climate change.

We perform thousands of alternative simulations for different fertility levels (assumed to be constant over time) starting from empirically given population structures and derive the rate of fertility which yields the lowest level of our education-weighted dependency ratio. We study the sensitivity of our results to different parameter values and choose to focus on the actual populations of Europe and China over the course of the 21st century.

The results show that when education is assumed to present a cost at young age and results in higher productivity during adult age, then the fertility rate that on the long run keeps dependency at a minimum turns out to lie well below replacement fertility both in Europe and in China under a set of plausible assumptions. The optimal fertility level falls even lower when climate change is factored in as well.

We conclude that there is nothing magic and particularly desirable about replacement level fertility.

The world is increasingly characterised by profound income, health and social inequalities (Appadurai, 2000). In recent decades development initiatives aimed at reducing these inequalities have been situated in a context of increasing globalisation with a dominant neo-liberal economic orthodoxy. This paper argues that neo-liberal globalisation contains inherent contradictions regarding
choice and uniformity. This is illustrated in this paper through an exploration of the impact of neo-liberal globalisation on population policies and programmes. The dominant neo-liberal economic ideology that has influenced development over the last few decades has often led to alternative global visions being overlooked. Many current population and development debates are characterised by polarised arguments with strongly opposing aims and views. This raises the challenge of finding alternatives situated in more middle ground that both identify and promote the socially positive elements of neo-liberalism and state intervention, but also to limit their worst excesses within the population field and more broadly. This paper concludes with a discussion outlining the positive nature of middle ground and other possible alternatives.

با وجود تاکید اخیر برنامه‌ها و سیاست‌های رسمی و آشکار برخی کشورها بر افزایش جمعیت، مطالعات‌ اندکی درباره نقش رسانه‌ها در موفقیت سیاستهای جمعیت منتشر شده است. پس از اعمال سیاست کنترل جمعیت در ایران، با ابلاغ سیاست‌های کلی جمعیت در 30 اردیبهشت 1393 تغییر سیاستها به افزایش جمعیت وجهه‌ای رسمی یافت. علیرغم توجه سیاست­های ابلاغی به ابعاد مختلف (کمی و کیفی)‌ جمعیت، نحوه بازتولید گفتمانی و ترویج این سیاست‌ها در رسانه‌ها عمدتا با توجه به بعد کمیت جمعیت انجام می‌شود، که به نظر می‌رسد هم توانایی این پیام‌ها در تغییر رفتار را کاهش داده و هم تصویری ناقص از سیاست‌های جمعیتی ارائه می‌دهد. در این مقاله، با استفاده از نظریه رفتار برنامه‌ریزی شده عوامل موثر بر تغییر رفتار معرفی شده و با استفاده از روش تحلیل گفتمان انتقادی، گفتمان‌های اصلی دو روزنامه کیهان و ایران شناسایی می‌شوند. سپس، گفتمان‌ها از نظر حضور یا فقدان عوامل اثرگذار بر تغییر رفتار باروری تحلیل می‌گردند. در نهایت، سه اصل برای بهینه کردن فعالیت‌های ترویجی سیاست‌های جمعیتی ایران معرفی می‌شوند که عبارتند از الف) توجه به عوامل متعدد اثرگذار بر رفتار باروری؛ ب) اتخاذ رویکرد مخاطب آگاه، گزینشگر، و عقلانی؛ و ج) برقراری ارتباط و همکاری علمی بین روزنامه‌نگاران و جمعیت‌شناسان.
Abstract
Despite the emphasis on direct and formal pronatlaist policies, little attention has been paid to the role of media on the success of population policies.  After the implementation of antinatalist policies in Iran, the pronatalist policy was formally revealed by the announcement of the population decree by the Supreme Leader in May 2014.  Although the new policy is comprehensive and pays attention to various aspects (i.e quantity and quality) of population, the media discourse only promotes one aspect, that is quantitative aspect of the policy. This means that the media content not only does not have the ability for making behavioral change, but also produces an incomplete picture of the new population policy.  Using the planned behavior theory, this paper identifies factors affecting behavior change, and introduces main discourses in Iran and Keyhan newspapers as the two mainstream media by using critical discourse analysis. Then, discourses are analyzed taking into account the presence or lack of determining factors of fertility. Finally, three principles are proposed for the improvement of  advocacy of population policies which includes a) considering multiple factors affecting fertility behavior, b) taking  informed, selective and rational audience approach, and c) making scientific communication and collaboration between journalists and demographers.

Keywords

This chapter provides a preliminary survey of infertility and its social context in present-day India. It aims to demonstrate and foreground the historical aspects of this issue, which are essential in order to understand how and why the Indian fertility industry has developed in the ways it has done, and why infertility remains in many respects a taboo subject. Drawing on English-language Indian newspapers, government reports, film, and literature, Grey shows how present-day attitudes and practices have their roots in policies and ideas originally generated during the late twentieth century. He explores the demographic context and population policies of India; reproductive medicine, adoption, and surrogacy; the social and cultural context of infertility; and religion. The chapter reveals how the profound stigmatization of infertility in contemporary India disproportionately affects women, regardless of faith, caste, region, or class background.

Is it right to create children in a world where we have so many orphans in need of our resources. My argument is that if (1) we want children (2) would pass adoption agency policies (we are sane, stable, good, etc.) and (3) and there are lots of children who need that love and attention, we should adopt instead of procreating.

There is no reason to continue the species in general; seeing as there are plenty of children who do require the love and attention so many are willing to give future people, people ought to adopt to help now. People's children do not exist and do not lose out by continuing their non-existent state.

Those who refuse to adopt but want to procreate have no good reason to say so. Firstly, they are discriminating based on genetics, what I call "genecism". They claim a child is only deserving of love and attention if it is biologically related. This is arbitrary and, furthermore, unjustifiable discrimination. Secondly, some critics claim that adoption agencies wouldn't allow them to adopt. But adoption agencies are claiming they would make bad parents in general not specifically for adopted children. What makes us think we have a free pass to breed, especially if agencies tell us we would make bad parents.

Parenthood is an important, ethical stance. But we do not need to be biologically-related to be parents or even good parents, as many adopted families could claim.