Technology Foresight

Esta publicación es producto de la selección y edición de los mejores trabajos presentados durante las Terceras Jornadas de Planificación para el Desarrollo, que se celebraron en paralelo con el seminario internacional “Los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible y la Construcción de Futuros para América Latina y el Caribe”, organizado en Santiago de Chile, del 18 al 20 de mayo de 2016, por el Instituto Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Planificación Económica y Social (ILPES) de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Este seminario se desarrolló en el marco de las actividades del convenio de cooperación técnica entre la CEPAL y la República de Corea.

Because the input for Futures Studies is to a very high degree formulated as written words and
texts, methods which automate the processing of texts can substantially help Futures Studies.
At Shaping Tomorrow, we have developed a software system using Natural Language Processing
(NLP), a subfield of Artificial Intelligence, which automatically analyzes publicly available texts and
extracts future-relevant data from theses texts. This process can be used to study the futures.
This article discusses this software system, explains how it works with a detailed example, and
shows real-life applications and visualizations of the resulting data. The current state of this
method is just the first step; a number of technological improvements and their possible benefits
are explained. The implications of using this software system for the field of Futures Studies are
mostly positive, but there are also a number of caveats.

Purpose-The aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore.
Design/methodology/approach-This study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government; this study has carried out content analysis of secondary literature and conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with elite informants.
Findings-This study finds that the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government was brought about by a combination of five factors. The most foundational factor in our model is the role of institutional entrepreneurs, who drew upon the symbolic representation of Singapore's vulnerability to legitimize the use of foresight, thus resonating well with local technocratic groups to maintain steady economic progress. This study further argues that the underdevelopment of foresight in the local private and academic domains can be at least in part explained by the historical connotations of foresight that were uncovered.
Research limitations/implications-As the findings are fruit of the authors' interpretation of the secondary literature/interview data, they require further triangulation by future research.
Originality/value-This study presents the interpretation of elite informants' accounts and historical documents to explain one of the most exemplar yet classified case studies of governmental foresight globally.

In this Science-Fiction Prototyping article, I present an imaginative forward look at how artificial intelligence and virtual environments might change the nature of future education. The discussion is intended to be a somewhat speculative and thought provoking journey into what may be possible. At its root, it imagines a future time when the technological singularity has been reached, and machine intelligence and interaction is equal or surpasses that of people. I do this by means of a fictional reflection on how life might be in the future, a set of four small vignettes and a discussion of the factual research inspiring these views.

The paper aims to determine plausible scenarios for widespread adoption of online residential cleaning services in the Philippines by 2025.

A section in the paper summarizes the different incumbent industry players in the Philippines and their value propositions. Since most of the SMEs in the country offering such services are in their infancy stage, several scenarios can be drawn out of the uncertainties which also make the study interesting in exploring the lucrativeness and marketability of the online residential cleaning service industry.

A section in the paper also summarizes different notable Online Cleaning Service or OCS in other countries and their successful strategies in bringing the service to the market. The reasons behind OCS failures, such as Homejoy, and its recommendations are also discussed.

In order to derive scenarios and strategies, the project methodology used is the 10-step scenario building tool. Through scenario development, both the public and the private sectors can anticipate possible risks in the future and maximize the opportunities through the paper􏰁s recommended strategies. Furthermore, the paper gives a thorough analysis on the implications of different strategies and its conditions to be executed.

Amidst fears over artificial intelligence 'arms races' , much of the international debate on governing military uses of AI is still focused on preventing the use of lethal autonomous weapons systems (laws). Yet 'killer robots' hardly exhaust the potentially problematic capabilities that innovation in military AI (mai) is set to unlock. Gov-ernance initiatives narrowly focused on preserving 'meaningful human control' over laws therefore risk being bypassed by the technological state-of-the-art. This paper departs from the question: how can we formulate 'innovation-proof governance' approaches that are resilient or adaptive to future developments in military AI? I develop a typology for the ways in which mai innovation can disrupt existing international legal frameworks. This includes 'direct' disruption-as new types of mai capabilities elude categorization under existing regimes-as well as 'indirect' disruption, where new capabilities shift the risk landscape of military AI, or change the incentives or values of the states developing them. After discussing two potential objections to 'in-novation-proof governance' , I explore the advantages and shortcomings of three possible approaches to innovation-proof governance for military AI. While no definitive blueprint is offered, I suggest key considerations for governance strategies that seek to ensure that military AI remains lawful, ethical, stabilizing, and safe.

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the attractiveness and viability of the country's pineapple leather industry.

The paper aims to determine plausible scenarios for widespread adoption of online residential cleaning services in the Philippines by 2025.

A section in the paper summarizes the different incumbent industry players in the Philippines and their value propositions. Since most of the SMEs in the country offering such services are in their infancy stage, several scenarios can be drawn out of the uncertainties which also make the study interesting in exploring the lucrativeness and marketability of the online residential cleaning service industry.

A section in the paper also summarizes different notable Online Cleaning Service or OCS in other countries and their successful strategies in bringing the service to the market. The reasons behind OCS failures, such as Homejoy, and its recommendations are also discussed.

In order to derive scenarios and strategies, the project methodology used is the 10-step scenario building tool. Through scenario development, both the public and the private sectors can anticipate possible risks in the future and maximize the opportunities through the paper􏰁s recommended strategies. Furthermore, the paper gives a thorough analysis on the implications of different strategies and its conditions to be executed.

Futures studies have always been important for people to anticipate the future and take actions. Since technology is for society, Future oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) have been widely implemented based on different concepts through different dimensions. Foresight, one of the FTA, has evolved throughout its journey within its generations until today. In this article, foresight generations in the literature are put forth as grouped and the framework of new technology foresight generation as sixth generation (Foresight 6.0) is offered and detailed. Foresight 6.0 is evaluated on the focused dimensions, participating actors, economic bases and principles. The rising concepts of Industry 4.0, Society 5.0, netocracy, cyberspace, biotechnology, ethical values and blurriness of the roles in economy are the primary factors in this new generation of foresight.

This work focuses on the actor perspective and elaborates the relations to the self and the applied technology in self-tracking (ST), expanding critical studies. Based on ethnographic material with ST informants and four years of autoethnography by the author, two complementary but also individually occurring modes of self-relations were synthesized. Interwoven in a duality a co-existence and ambiguity of self-care and self-control, which appear as two sides of the same coin, emerge.
The self-control relation is characterized by increased awareness and complexity-reducing information about oneself, motivation (often occurring as self-challenge), and considering algorithmic recommendations, which summa summarum facilitate orientation and decision making in daily life. However, the self-control relation can go astray on the downside into losing control over the control (and becoming compulsive and addictive) and over the data.
The self-care relation entails placing oneself in the center of attention in a digital medium by increased self-thematization, archiving body diaries, and self-affirmation. Self-concepts are no longer primarily constructed, confirmed, or rejected by the social environment but also by applying digital technologies upon oneself. However, self-care can be undermined on the downside, such as self-doubt, self-deception (maybe narcissism), and self-distraction.
Three different relations to ST technology in technologically mediated self-care and self-control were elaborated: technology as a means, a counterpart (partner, nanny, coach), and a promise of salvation. Here another dialectic becomes visible. In using ST devices, the relationship of the users to technology seems to intensify, with the technology being able to perform a partner-like or even superior role.
Finally, the often-assumed self-optimization in ST emerges as harmonizing and balancing life-maintenance tasks.

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global population would require 60% more food than we produce currently by 2050 (FAO, 2018). Also, the land used for agriculture is limited and finite. According to the study done by Mr. Arniel Gabriel of Nueva Ecija Univesity of Science and Technology, there will only a 2 percent increase in agricultural land by the year 2040 (Gabriel, 2011). Water is also a scarce resource. A number of watersheds in the Philippines is in critical condition and thus, affecting the quality of water used in agriculture. All of these conditions affect our capability to supply food for all the people.

One answer to this issue is farming through plant factory with artificial lighting (PFAL). According to Mr. Toyoki Kozai, who is also considered as the father of PFAL technology, PFAL refers to a plant production facility with a thermally insulated and a nearly airtight warehouse structure (Kozai, 2016). Multiple cultures shelves with electric lamps on each shelf are vertically stacked inside. Other necessary types of equipment and devices for a PFAL are air conditioners, air circulation fans, carbon dioxide, and nutrient solution supply units, and an environmental control unit. PFALs are now used in a lot of countries.

There have been several publications on farming in indoor facilities. However, there is only one plant factory in existence yet in the Philippines and nothing has been published on the future of this technology locally. This research aims to review the current trends that may affect the future of the adoption of the said technology, produce scenarios that will reflect its future and give recommendations for faster and successful technology adoption.

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the attractiveness and viability of the country's pineapple leather industry.

The paper aims to provide technology foresight on the pineapple leather industry in the Philippines by utilising scenario building and scenario planning tools. The authors have formulated PowerTex, a consulting firm that evaluates the attractiveness and viability of the country's pineapple leather industry.

This brief technical essay describes the origins of the Manoa approach to scenario building, and offers step-by-step instructions  in building scenarios to maximize difference from the present using the Manoa approach.  It is well suited to participatory explorations of emergent futures, especially focussed on creativity and innovation.

Foresight is a systematic and multidisciplinary process with proper methodology combinations for identifying technological, economic and social areas to prioritize investments and research to realize medium or long-term future strategies by using various resources from organizational to international level. Cybersecurity is the protection of cyber systems from cyber-attacks and providing integrity, confidentiality, and availability of those systems. In this thesis, information about technology foresight and cybersecurity is given through a detailed literature review and with the examples from all over the world. Two round Delphi survey, focus group, and scenario methods were mainly performed in order to develop Turkey’s national cybersecurity technology foresight. In the study, a new technology foresight model and framework created by the researcher and thesis supervisor were followed to keep up with an optimum approach. The thesis is concluded by the concrete policy suggestions based on the foresight outputs.

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights.
Design/methodology/approach-The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice.
Findings-The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes.
Originality/value-The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.

This paper suggests new technology foresight approach named Foresight Periscope Model (FPM). The article starts with various definitions of technology foresight from the literature and new definition is given by the authors. Elements of widely accepted foresight definitions are analyzed and depicted on a table according to the number of references in the definitions. Based on the literature analysis, foresight generations are grouped into four main categories. Foresight frameworks are analyzed and a generic foresight functional model with nine consecutive phases named 'FORESIGHT' is suggested. Functions in the FORESIGHT model are matched with the phases of prominent foresight frameworks in the literature based on their actions and artifacts within specific phases. FPM is a new technology foresight approach which has three interdependent modules; Resources, Methodology and Futures Strategies. Model makes use of periscope resemblance, that is, resources and methodology are underlying parts that enable an organization to see alternative futures and provide futures strategies to follow in order to survive and compete in the environment. Resources that can be used in a foresight exercise are explained. Foresight methods in the literature are grouped according to various criteria and the approach to choose the right methods to create proper methodology is stated. The model concludes with futures strategies which put foresight process into action by taking advantage of underlying resources and methodology. FPM does not impose a specific methods or process to attain the desired future. It provides a framework for practitioners to start with and to complete a foresight exercise by using optimum resources and proper methodology.

Futures studies have enormous effect to reduce the development gap between developing and developed countries. But there are challenges in developing countries that deeply affect foresight activities and diminish its applicable usage. Although future oriented planning usually faces natural difficulties to properly assume all values and assumptions of all stakeholders, but in developing countries some key challenges affect the outputs of the foresight process severely. In this writing these challenges are categorized into four main groups. The first group of challenges refers to Foresight assumptions and context, the second is methodological aspects of foresight, next Foresight stakeholders and networking, and finally technological aspects of foresight and its related challenges.

Wer technologische Trends und die Potenziale neuer Technologien frühzeitig erkennt, verschafft sich essenzielle Wettbewerbsvorteile und legt ein Fundament für Produktinno-vationen. Unternehmen stehen jedoch vor der Herausforderung, zum einen die stetige Flut an neuen technologischen Entwicklungen im Auge zu behalten und zum anderen die für sie relevanten Trends zu identifizieren. Im Abschlussbuch des Verbundforschungsprojektes »syncTech – synchronisierte Techno-logieadaption als Treiber der strategischen Produktinnovation« werden neueste Metho-den, organisatorische Modelle und semantische Werkzeuge zur Informations gewinnung und-speicherung beschrieben. Wie diese dazu beitragen,Technologien und techno-logische Entwicklungen frühzeitig zu erkennen und entsprechende Nutzen potenziale systematisch im unternehmerischen Kontext zu bewerten, wird unter anderem anhand von Praxisberichten der Unternehmen Eisenmann SE, Festo AG & Co. KG, Alfred Kärcher GmbH & Co. KG sowie Schnaithmann Maschinenbau GmbH aufgezeigt.

Creating an institutional framework on a global scale to understand balance-of-power strategies is the crux of foreign policy today with United States superpower exceptionalism. 'Altercating' defence, diplomacy and development encapsulate the United States foreign policy in relation to national interests globally. Role theory applied in comparing the United States and Chinese grand strategies as case studies. The United States superpower statecraft's clarity help superimposed any form of countervailing alliances globally; while China's sociological pragmatist role currently could change based on 'Power Transition Theory' for hegemony power. Beijing is pursuing a grand strategy that combines both 'internal balancing' and external 'soft balancing', encapsulated as 'warfare ecosystem construct' as countervailing alliances for balance-of-power strategies with development of 'Economic Corridors' in East Asia ; and the United States 'Globalization Agenda' both executed as 'mechanisms of power' date back to their 'hegemonic histories' with adaptive construct for national interests.

Keywords: grand strategy, foreign policy, national interest, realism, liberalism, pragmatism, United States, China, GVAR model, warfare ecosystem, spatial polysingularity.

An increasing number of technology firms are implementing processes to identify and evaluate the ethical risks of their systems and products. A key part of these review processes is to foresee potential impacts of these technologies on different groups of users. In this article, we use the expression Ethical Foresight Analysis (EFA) to refer to a variety of analytical strategies for anticipating or predicting the ethical issues that new technological artefacts, services, and applications may raise. This article examines several existing EFA methodologies currently in use. It identifies the purposes of ethical foresight, the kinds of methods that current methodolo-gies employ, and the strengths and weaknesses of each of these current approaches. The conclusion is that a new kind of foresight analysis on the ethics of emerging technologies is both feasible and urgently needed.

Abstract
Diverse methodologies are focused to the advantage of the information and intelligence, the Delphi method is one of them. Method used for the structuring of processes of communication between a group of individuals to treat a complex problem, aspect that locates it in a tool with great capacity to explore and to stimulate intelligence and/or the creativity.

This work tries to valorize the used and interaction of the graphical structures of communication in the Delphi reports and is reflected on the advantage of other graphical structures (Mind Maps and Road Maps), with the intensity to obtain the greater one I stimulate (amount, quality and impact) in the phases of the creative process (preparation, incubation, intuition and evaluation).

Resumen
Diversas metodologías están enfocadas al aprovechamiento de la información e inteligencia, el método Delphi es una de ellas. Método utilizado para la estructuración de procesos de comunicación entre un grupo de individuos para tratar un problema complejo, aspecto que lo sitúa en una herramienta con gran capacidad para explorar y estimular la inteligencia y/o la creatividad.

Este trabajo pretende valorizar el uso e interacción de las estructuras gráficas de comunicación de los reportes Delphi y se reflexiona sobre el aprovechamiento de otras estructuras gráficas (Mapas Mentales y Mapas de Rutas Tecnológicas), con la intensión de obtener un mayor estimulo (cantidad, calidad e impacto) en las fases del proceso creativo (preparación, incubación, intuición y evaluación).

Scholars claim that futures and foresight science should overcome “confusion” regarding the definition of core concepts, for example, the scenario. Admittedly, defining scenario has been a challenge. Current practice, which results in repeated attempts to clarify said confusion with yet another new definition of scenario, has apparently not advanced the field. An alternative option is not to redefine scenario, but to, instead, create a shared definition composed of component parts of pre‐existing definitions. The result is an operant or synthesized definition based on analysis of claims indicating what “a scenario is…” and “scenarios are…” in the literature on scenario planning. The authors find that scenarios have a temporal property rooted in the future and reference external forces in that context; scenarios should be possible and plausible while taking the proper form of a story or narrative description; and that scenarios exist in sets that are systematically prepared to coexist as meaningful alternatives to one another. Despite claims to the contrary, the authors find that the academic community of futures and foresight science does not seem to suffer from so‐called confusion over the definition of scenario, and thus, it is time to sunset the use of claims to this end.

Mutative Media is a sweeping examination of how communication technologies have contributed to changes in people’s thoughts and actions, and thus in the power structures of societies, in the past, at present, and in four alternative futures.

We start by surveying what is generally known about the emergence of human language and speech that has enabled humans to extend their organizing abilities beyond that of other hominids. We then review research on the emergence of signs, symbols, and eventually writing, which led to new ways of thinking, acting, and organizing in scribal societies and vastly extended human influence globally. We consider the impact of the printing press in Europe, the Middle East, China, and Korea that led to various ways of thinking and organizing in modern societies, and conclude our historical survey with a discussion of the emergence and impact of electric and electronic communication technologies from the nineteenth century to the present.

After a brief overview of what “futures studies” is and is not, based on our extensive experience in the field, we present four generic alternative futures, and discuss a prototype of a hybrid, mixed-reality game designed to enable players to experience the power and potential of new communication technologies within four very different environments and conditions. We think you will be intrigued by our surprising findings and what they may mean for future generations!

The paper aims to explore the potential shifts AI and AI-led converging technologies can bring to the security environment. To do so, this research identifies two relevant cases designated by the United Nations as challenges to International peace and security in the 21st century. The weaponization of audiovisuals in the form of deep faks and the weaponization of data through microtargeting are two cases that provide the scope to analyze and explore some of the potential shifts occurring to the security environment as a cause of the weaponization of information.

Abridged Chinese version of the article "Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future" published on Futures & Foresight Science, e17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.17. Appeared on the Chinese language management magazine Management Insights (管理视野）

Given the importance of a hermeneutic extension of Technology Assessment (TA), we should ask which kind of knowledge can be created from such perspective and whether and how such knowledge can be relevant for policymaking. Hermeneutic TA aims at understanding the "meaning attributed to emerging technologies in societal discourses". In this article, I will suggest that from the perspective of hermeneutic TA it becomes clear that TA has directed much attention to the "vanguard visions" of some rather elitist visionaries, whose narratives of technological futures have attracted a lot of media attention and stirred up societal debates. Nanotechnology is the most pertinent example. Meaning has been attributed to such comprehensive, techno-scientific futures, elevating them to form the backdrop of public discourses, technology assessments and policy-making. Such attribution carries a prescriptive power and pushes to political action or further social scientific inquiry. Acknowledging this should raise the awareness that many peo-ple's visions of the future are not part of the policy debates in which TA is involved and in which the future is negotiated. This imbalance might be expressed by saying that they do "not have a future". In the present article, I will explore this notion and its normative implications.

Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered.

Decision-makers, experts and laymen in different historical periods and in different socioeconomic systems shared at least one desire: to know their future in advance or even to influence it for their advantage. They have used very different approaches and methods from spiritual/ religious ones to scientific investigations and various modes of planning. This paper is aimed at characterising foresight, first by locating this approach among the various approaches to future-oriented analyses, and then by identifying three types foresight programmes.

This Science-Fiction Prototype ruminates on a post-singularity world, where transhumanism practices are in widespread use. In particular, the discussion focuses on a form of transhumanism that involves reengineering the brain, and associated reality experiences, as part of an educational process. The paper uses two short SFPs to explore some consequences of transhumanism for immersive education ideas (the focus of the host conference). The article concludes by postulating that we may, perhaps unwittingly, already be on a path to such a future with the advent of technologies like augmented reality glasses and wonders where we might draw a line that we shouldn’t cross.

We analyzed 30 pandemic films and developed a processual model to explain the social-level coping mechanisms to confront pandemics as portrayed in films. The model describes the underlying collective understanding of disease outbreaks. The model suggests that pandemic films divide the disease outbreak into three phases: emergence, transmission, and termination. Concurrently, three social processes tend to be activated to cope with the pandemic: healthcare, political, and public awareness. This model is used to compare the social imaginary reflected in films with the current COVID-19 outbreak. The resemblance of the model and the current outbreak suggests that fictional pandemic films may still follow our collective understanding of the pandemic dynamics. Four scenarios are suggested as road maps for futures and foresight practice concerned with future pandemic outbreaks.

Esta investigación explora distintos modelos de probabilidad de demanda laboral inducida por el comportamiento innovador de las empresas peruanas a dos niveles, promedio nacional y de tres industrias particulares: industrias creativas y culturales, servicios intensivos
en conocimiento (kibs) y alta y media-alta tecnología (amat), ya que la evidencia internacional sugiere que dichas actividades tienen la facultad de generar nuevo conocimiento que al difundirse influye también en el
comportamiento innovador de otros sectores. Las variables independientes se agrupan en determinantes internos y externos a la empresa, que actúan sobre ella por medio de derrames de conocimiento. Se encontró que, para una empresa promedio que introdujo alguno de los tres tipos de innovación analizados y que contrató personal como consecuencia de dichas introducciones, la mayor cantidad de derrames de conocimiento importantes para ella proviene respectivamente de las kibs, industrias creativas y culturales y amat. Sin embargo, se observa también que la magnitud de los derrames de conocimiento de las empresas innovadoras de industrias creativas y culturales sobre las kibs es mayor que el observado de manera inversa, es decir, las kibs se beneficiarían más de las industrias creativas y culturales como fuente externa de conocimiento que viceversa. En síntesis, las industrias creativas y culturales son importantes entonces para promover la innovación en el conjunto de la economía.

This paper contributes to the recent discussion about the standards and quality of futures research. The quality criteria proposed by Kuusi (Futura 1/15, 2015) concern the internal and external validity of a futures research process and its outcomes. This paper introduces a new tool for technology anticipation and evaluation called the Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) and analyses its internal and external validity in light of the recently proposed quality criteria for futures research. The aim is to provide a practical use case for the quality criteria where the validity of a new methodology is analysed.

The recent increase of unexpected crises and the complexity and urgency of the extraordinary policy challenges they give rise to, highlights the fact that foresight must not be a luxury. Indeed, more than ever before in history, foresight has become an essential pre-requisite for proactive, informed and collective action. Foresight provides a systematic approach to support a deeper reflection on where changes of policy direction are needed, how to engineer required transitions, flagging potential barriers, and meaningful engagement and empowerment of end users.
Foresight processes and advice at European level are not developed in a vacuum but complement and compete with other strategic policy advice mechanisms, including for example informal expert groups, Horizon 2020 Advisory Groups, the Scientific Advice Mechanism (SAM) and the Research, Innovation and Science Expert Group (RISE). The added value of foresight is to provide analysis in terms of forward-looking framing of key challenges (for example, transition to the bio economy, the migration-climate change nexus, Industry 4.0) through the consideration of trends and weak signals of change, sense-making of these trends and weak signals, the exploration of alternative scenarios and through co-design processes.
The Expert Group worked on four work streams to develop:
- Foresight guidelines for strategic programming of research, in particular in support of the next Framework Programme (cf. bringing foresight closer to the policy-making process).
- An operational plan for a flexible and informal European network of foresight experts for research, science and innovation policy that could address the Commission's need for strategic intelligence and sense-making.
- A 'Rapid Response'-Mechanism (RRM). This included the provision of pilot rapid response sense-making of signals that change in society, economy, and technology is occurring on issues deemed relevant for R&I policy.
- A frame for the better use of foresight in selecting R&I topics and doing R&I policy in a bottom-up, inclusive mode.

Mankind has already committed Suicide: Every option available to course-correct the crises, risks the existence of humanity as a whole. And yet, we do not - as a whole - apprehend this foundational understanding to the risk of Being and Human existence.