Practice Set

1.
A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on 10% of his shifts, he forgets to shut off the injection machine
on his line. This causes the machine to overheat, increasing the probability from 2% to 20% that a defective molding
will be produced during the early morning run. What proportion of moldings from the early morning run is defective?
Solution: On any given day, we won't know if the foreman shut off the line or not, so we have to account for two
situations:
1) Forgot to shut off the line (10% of the time) --> leads to a 20% chance of defects in the morning
2) DID NOT forget to shut off the line (the other 90% of the time) --> normal 2% chance of defects in the morning
1st option: (.1)(.2) = .02

2nd option: (.9)(.02) = .018
Total = .02 + .018 = .038
2. A study undertaken by the Miami–Dade Supervisor of Elections in 2002 revealed that 44% of registered voters are
Democrats, 37% are Republicans, and 19% are others. If two registered voters are selected at random, what is the
probability that both of them have the same party affiliation?
3. The chartered financial analyst (CFA) is a designation earned after taking three annual exams (CFA I, II, and III). The
exams are taken in early June. Candidates who pass an exam are eligible to take the exam for the next level in the
following year. The pass rates for levels I, II, and III are .57, .73, and .85, respectively. Suppose that 3,000 candidates
take the level I exam, 2,500 take the level II exam, and 2,000 take the level III exam. Suppose that one student is
selected at random. What is the probability that he or she has passed the exam?
Solution: I =3000*0.57=1710, II=1825, III=1700. This gives a total of 5235 students who passed
the exams.
5235/7500=0.698
4. The Nickels restaurant chain regularly conducts surveys of its customers. Respondents are asked to assess food quality,
service, and price. The responses are Excellent Good Fair They are also asked whether they would come back. After
analyzing the responses, an expert in probability determined that 87% of customers say that they will return. Of those
who so indicate, 57% rate the restaurant as excellent, 36% rate it as good, and the remainder rate it as fair. Of those
who say that they won’t return, the probabilities are 14%, 32%, and 54%, respectively. What proportion of customers
rate the restaurant as good?
87% of customers say that they will return 13% will not return.
.87*.36 + .13*.32 = number who rate good
5. A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months is
25%. She also believes that if the economy encounters a recession, the probability that her mutual fund will increase in
value is 20%. If there is no recession, the probability that the mutual fund will increase in value is 75%. Find the
probability that the mutual fund’s value will increase.
P(mutual fund value increases) = P(mutual fund increases | recession) + P(mutual fund increases | no recession)
So the answer is 0.2*0.25+0.75*0.75 = 0.05+0.5625= 61.25%
6. The effect of an antidepressant drug varies from person to person. Suppose that the drug is effective on 80% of women
and 65% of men. It is known that 66% of the people who take the drug are women. What is the probability that the
drug is effective?
(effective) = 0.34 ∙ 0.65 + 0.66 ∙ 0.8 = 0.749.
7. A telemarketer sells magazine subscriptions over the telephone. The probability of a busy signal or no answer is 65%.
If the telemarketer does make contact, the probability of 0, 1, 2, or 3 magazine subscriptions sold is .5, .25, .20, and
.05, respectively. Find the probability that in one call she sells no magazines.
Solution: Probability of selling 0 magazines in one call will be sum of probability of unsuccessful call and 0
magazines if call is successful
Probability of unsuccessful call = 0.65
Probability of selling 0 magazines= 0.35*0.5 0.175
Total probability for no magazines = 0.825
8. In a bolt factory machines A, B, and C manufacture, respectively, 25, 35, and 40 percent of the total. Out of their
output, 5, 4, and 2 percent are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn from the produce and is found defective. What are the
probabilities that it was manufactured by A, B, and C?
9. A union’s executive conducted a survey of its members to determine what the membership felt were the important
issues to be resolved during upcoming negotiations with management. The results indicate that 74% felt that job
security was an important issue, whereas 65% identified pension benefits as an important issue. Of those who felt that
pension benefits were important, 60% also felt that job security was an important issue. One member is selected at
random.
a. What is the probability that he or she felt that both job security and pension benefits were important?
b. What is the probability that the member felt that at least one of these two issues was important?
Solution: A. P(pension and job security) = 0.65 * 0.60 = 0.39= 39%

B. P(pension exclusive) = 0.74 - P(pension and job security) = 0.35
P(job security exclusive) = 0.65 * (1 - 0.60) = 0.26
P(pension and job security) = 0.65 * 0.60 = 0.39
P(either pension or job security) = P(pension exclusive) + P(job security exclusive) + P(pension and job security) = 1
100%
Question: A diagnostic test has a probability of 0.95 of giving a positive result when applied to a person suffering from a
certain disease, and a probability 0.10 of giving a (false) positive when applied to a non-sufferer. It is estimated that 0.5 %
of the population are sufferers. Suppose that the test is now administered to a person about whom we have no relevant
information relating to the disease (apart from the fact that he/she comes from this population). Calculate the following
probabilities:
(a) that the test result will be positive; (ans: (0 .95×0.005)+(0.1×0.995) = 0.10425. )
(b) that, given a positive result, the person is a sufferer; (ans: 0.95×0.005 = 0 .0455
(0.95×0.005)+(0.1×0.995)
(c) that, given a negative result, the person is a non-sufferer; (ans: 0.9×0.995 =0 .9997
1−0.10425

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What is the probability that a randomly selected bolt is defective?

What is the probability that a diagnostic test will return a positive result for a randomly selected person?

1.

1st option: (.1)(.2) = .02

Solution: A. P(pension and job security) = 0.65 * 0.60 = 0.39= 39%

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