1

CHAPTER 2
Probability

Probability

Probability of Conditional
Bayes' Rule
Event(s) Probability

Prob. of
Independent
Mutually
Event
Exclusive Events

Introduction
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment.
Symbol – S.
Elements: Member of sample space.
Number of elements – n(S).
Event: Subset of sample space.
Complement: Subset of all elements that are not in event A.
Symbol – A’.

S
A S = A ⋃ A’
S
A’
S
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Intersect: The intersection of two events A and B, is the common element

for A and B

S
A B A∩B
S

Mutually exclusive: Two events A and B are disjoint. A ∩ B= ∅. No common

element.

S
A B A ∩ B= ∅
S

Union: Contain all elements of events A and B.

S
A B A∪B
S

Probability of an event

𝑛(𝐴) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑃(𝑆) = 1

𝑃(∅) = 0

Example 1:

A box contain 4 yellow balls and 6 black balls. 2 balls were taken from the box. If
the first ball is returned before taking the second ball. Find:
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a) P(exactly 2 yellow balls)

b) P(2 balls with different colours)
c) P(at least one yellow ball)

Solution:
𝑛(𝐴) 𝑛(𝐴)
P(yellow) = P(black)=
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛(𝑆)

4 6
P(Y) = = 10 P(B) = 10

6
10 B BB
6 B
10
4
10 Y BY

4 6
B YB
10 10
Y

4
10
Y YY

1) P(exactly 2 yellow balls)

= 𝑃(𝑌𝑌)
4 4
= ×
10 10
16 4
= =
100 25
2) P(2 balls with different colours)
= 𝑃(𝐵𝑌) + 𝑃(𝑌𝐵)
6 4 4 6
=( × )+( × )
10 10 10 10
24 24 48 12
= + = =
100 100 100 25

3) P(at least one yellow ball)

= 𝑃(𝐵𝑌) + 𝑃(𝑌𝐵) + 𝑃(𝑌𝑌)
6 4 4 6 4 4
=( × )+( × )+( × )
10 10 10 10 10 10
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64 16
= =
100 25

1 − 𝑃(𝐵𝐵)
6 6
=1−( × )
10 10
36
=1−
100
64 16
= =
100 25
Example 2:

When a fair dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting

a) the number 5
b) a number that is a multiple of 3
c) a number that is greater than 6
d) a number that is less than 7

Solution:

A fair die is an unbiased die where each of the six numbers is equally likely to turn
up.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

a) Let A = event of getting the number 5 = {5}

Let n(A) = number of outcomes in event A = 1

n(S) = number of outcomes in S = 6

1
𝑃(𝐴) =
6

b) Let B = event of getting a multiple of 3

Multiple of 3 = {3, 6}
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2
𝑃(𝐵) =
6

c) Let C = event of getting a number greater than 6

There is no number greater than 6 in the sample space S.

C ={}

0
𝑃(𝐶) = =0
6

A probability of 0 means the event will never occur.

d) Let D = event of getting a number less than 7

Numbers less than 7 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

6
𝑃(𝐷) = =1
6

A probability of 1 means the event will always occur.

Example 3:

Teddy has a two pairs of black shoes and three pairs of brown shoes. He also has
three pairs of red socks, four pairs of brown socks and six pairs of black socks.

If Teddy chooses a pair of shoes at random and a pair of socks at random, what
is the probability that he chooses shoes and socks of the same color?

Solution:

Let H – black shoes (2) R – red socks (3) K – black socks (6)

B – brown shoes (3) C – brown socks (4)

2 3 6
𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑃(𝑅) = 𝑃(𝐾) =
5 13 13
3 4
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐶) =
5 13
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R HR
3
13 4
2 13 C HC
5 H
6
13 HK
K

3
3 R BR
13 4
5
B
13
C BC

6
13
K BK

= 𝑃(𝐻𝐾) + 𝑃(𝐵𝐶)
2 6 3 4
=( × )+( × )
5 13 5 13
12 12 24
= + =
65 65 65

Exercise 1:

1) Calculate the probability as of example 1, where the first ball was not
returned before taking the second ball.
12 8 2
Answer: i) 90 ii) 15 iii) 3
2) A bag contains 3 red chips, 5 blue chips and 2 green chips. 2 chips were
taken
a. With returning of the first chip
b. Without returning the first chip

before taking the second chip. Find

i) P(two chips with same colour)

ii) P(one red chip and one blue chip)
iii) P(at least one green chip)
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iv) P(two chips with different colour)

v) P(at most one green chip) 14/45 34/90
19 3 9 31 24 14 1 33 31 44
Answer: a. i) 25 ii) 10 iii) 25 iv) 50 v) 25 b. i) 25 ii) 3 iii) 90 iv) 45 v) 45
19/50

Probability of events

Additive rule for TWO events

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Additive rule for THREE events

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

Example 4:

Given 𝐻 = {4, 6, 8,10} and 𝐽 = {7, 8,10}. Find 𝑃(𝐻 ∪ 𝐽).

Solution:

𝐻 ∪ 𝐽 = {4,6,7,8, 10} and 𝑛(𝐻 ∪ 𝐽) = 5

𝑛(𝐻 ∪ 𝐽) 5
𝑃(𝐻 ∪ 𝐽) = =
𝑛(𝑠) 7

𝐻 ∩ 𝐽 = {8, 10} and 𝑛(𝐻 ∩ 𝐽) = 2

𝑃(𝐻 ∪ 𝐽) = 𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐽) − 𝑃(𝐻 ∩ 𝐽)

4 3 2
= + −
7 7 7
5
=
7
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Example 5:

Shahrul is about to propose to two girls to be his girlfriend. The probability that Nana
Muammar Ema
Shahrul proposal is 2⁄5 and the probability that Mummy
accept Muammar Molly accept the proposal
is 8⁄9. If the probability that both girls accept Muammar
Shahrul’s proposal is 6⁄7, what is the
probability that Muammar
Shahrul’s proposal will be

a) Accepted by at least one of the girl?

b) Rejected by both girls?

Solution:

Let E – Ema
Nana accept the proposal

M – Molly
Mummy accept the proposal
2
𝑃(𝐸) =
5
8
𝑃(𝑀) =
9
a) 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝑀)
= 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝑀) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝑀)
2 8 6
= + −
5 9 7
136
=
315
b) 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝑀)′
136 179
=1− =
315 315

Example 6:

In a class, there are 100 students. 42 of them studied Mathematics, 54 studied

Chemistry and 68 studied Biology, 22 studied both Mathematics and Chemistry,
25 studied both Mathematics and Biology, 7 studied Chemistry but neither
Mathematics nor Biology, 10 studied all three subjects and 8 did not studied any
of the three. Draw the Venn diagram and if a student is selected at random,
find:

a) 𝑃(𝐵)
b) 𝑃(𝑀)
c) 𝑃(𝐶)
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d) 𝑃(all three subjects)

e) 𝑃(does not take any of the subject)
f) 𝑃(does not take Chemistry but takes both Biology and Mathematics)

Solution:

S
M C
12
7
5 10
15 25

18
B 8

a) 𝑃(𝐵)
68
=
100
b) 𝑃(𝑀)
42
=
100
c) 𝑃(𝐶)
54
=
100
d) 𝑃(all three subjects)
10
=
100
e) 𝑃(does not take any of the subject)
8
=
100
f) 𝑃(does not take Chemistry but takes both Biology and Mathematics)
15
=
100

Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

If event A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
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Example 7:

Five friends, Amir, Baljit, Candy, Desvi, and Ella apply for the post in UTHM as
lecturer. However only one will get the job. Find the probability that

a) Candy will get the job.

b) Desvi or Ella will get the job.

Solution:

a) Each person has an equal chance of getting the job and the selection is
mutually exclusive because only one will be chosen.

𝑆 = {Amir, Baljit, Candy, Desvi, and Ella} and 𝑛(𝑆) = 5. Thus, 𝑃(Candy) = 1⁄5.

b) 𝑃(Desvi or Ella)
= P(Desvi) + P(Ella)
1 1 2
= + =
5 5 5

Example 8:

Mr. Hadid sends his three boys Jalal, Haziq and Khal to karate championship. The
probability that Jalal, Haziq and Khal to win are 0.15, 0.2 and 0.25, respectively.
Find the probability that

a) one of them will win.

b) none of them win.

Solution:

Let J – Jalal wins

H – Haziq wins
K – Khal wins
a) Since only one person can win, event J, H and K are mutually exclusive.
Thus, probability one of them will win is

𝑃(𝐽 ∪ 𝐻 ∪ 𝐾)
= 𝑃(𝐽) + 𝑃(𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐾)
= 0.15 + 0.2 + 0.25 = 0.6
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b) Probability none of them win is

= 1 − 𝑃(𝐽 ∪ 𝐻 ∪ 𝐾)
= 1 − 0.6 = 0.4

Conditional Probability
The probability of event B given A: 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0

𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

a)

Multiplicative rule

𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)

Example 9:

The probability that a regularly scheduled bus depart on time is 𝑃(𝐷) = 0.93, it
arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.9 and it departs and arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) = 0.84.
Find the probability that a bus

a) arrive on time given that it has departed on time

b) departs on time given that it has arrived on time.

Solution:

a) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐷)
𝐷∩𝐴
=
𝑃(𝐷)
0.84
= = 0.9032
0.93
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b) 𝑃(𝐷|𝐴)
𝐷∩𝐴
=
𝑃(𝐴)
0.84
= = 0.9333
0.9
Example 10:

200 adults are classified by sex and level of education attained:

Education Male Female

Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17

If a person is picked at random, find the probability that

a) the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education
b) the person does not have a college degree given that the person is a
female.

Solution:

Let M – male F – female E – elementary C – college

S – secondary

Education Male Female Total

Elementary 38 45 83
Secondary 28 50 78
College 22 17 39
Total 88 112 200
1) 𝑃(𝑀|𝑆)
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆)
=
𝑃(𝑆)
28⁄200
=
78⁄200
28 14
= =
78 39
2) 𝑃(𝐶′|𝐹)
𝑃(𝐶′ ∩ 𝐹)
=
𝑃(𝐹)
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95⁄200 95
= =
112⁄200 112

Exercise 2:

1) At a large bank, 6% of the employee are computer programmers, 50% of the

employee are female, 2% of the employee are female computer
programmers. If an employee is selected by chance, what is the probability
that:
a) The employee is a computer programmer, given that the employee
is female
b) The employee is female, given that employee is a computer
programmer

Answer: a) 0.04 b) 0.33

2) In an experiment, to study the relationship of hypertension ansd smoking

habits, the following data are collected for 180 individuals:
Non smoker Moderate smoker Heavy smoker
Hypertension 21 36 30
Non hypertension 48 26 19
If one of these individual is selected at random, find the probability that the
person is
a) Experiencing hypertension, given that the person is a heavy smoker
b) A non smoker, given that the person is experiencing no hypertension
Answer: a) 30⁄49 b) 48⁄93

Multiplicative rule:
Example 11:
marbles
In a box, there are 9 green marble and three white marbles. Two chips randomly
selected from the box. Find the probability that we get a green marble on the first
draw and a white one on the second draw if

a) The marble are selected without replacement

b) The marble are selected with replacement.

Solution:
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Let G – the event of green marble W – the event of white marble

a) 𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝑊)
= 𝑃(𝐺)𝑃(𝑊|𝐺)
9 3
= ×
12 11
9
=
44
b) 𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝑊)
= 𝑃(𝐺)𝑃(𝑊|𝐺)
9 3
= ×
12 12
3
=
16

Example 12:

Three balls are drawn out successively from a box containing 7 red balls, 5 white
balls and 6 blue balls. Find the probability that they are drawn in order red, white
and blue if each ball is

a) Replaced
b) Not replaced.

Solution:

Let R – the event red ball is drawn

W – the event white ball is drawn

B – the event blue ball is drawn

a) 𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝑊 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃 (𝑅)𝑃(𝑊|𝑅)𝑃(𝐵|𝑅 ∩ 𝑊)
7 5 6
= × ×
18 18 18
35
=
972
b) (𝑅 ∩ 𝑊 ∩ 𝐵)
= 𝑃 (𝑅)𝑃(𝑊|𝑅)𝑃(𝐵|𝑅 ∩ 𝑊)
7 5 6
= × ×
18 17 16
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35
=
816
Example 13:

The probability that a married man cheated on his wife is 0.6 and the probability
that a married woman cheated is 0.4. The probability that a man cheated given
that his wife does is 0.7. Find the probability that:

a) A married couple cheated on each other

b) The wife cheated given that her husband does
c) At least 1 person of a married couple will cheat.

Solution:

Let M – a married man cheated

W – a married women cheated

a) 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑊)
= 𝑃(𝑊)𝑃(𝑀|𝑊)
= 0.4 × 0.7
= 0.28
b) 𝑃(𝑊|𝑀)
𝑃(𝑊 ∩ 𝑀)
=
𝑃(𝑀)
0.28
=
0.6
= 0.4667
c) 𝑃(𝑀 ∪ 𝑊)
= 𝑃(𝑀) + 𝑃(𝑊) − 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑊)
= 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.28
= 0.72