- Australia South Asia Research Centre,
Arndt-Corden Department of Economics,
College of Asia and the Pacific,
Australian National University,
Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia - +61 2 6125 2683
- For more than three decades I have been an active researcher in economics. I have also contributed extensively to the... moreFor more than three decades I have been an active researcher in economics. I have also contributed extensively to the policy debate through consultancies and other public engagements. I have authored or edited 30 books with major publishers and authored more than 150 papers in leading scientific journals and other refereed outlets in economics. I have taught at major university departments in the US, UK, Canada, Australia and India and supervised many PhD dissertations in economics.
I have consulted extensively for international organizations such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, UNESCAP, WIDER and UNRISD, among several others and am on the editorial board of major international journals in economics.
Specialties
Economics, particularly macroeconomics, public economics, nutrition and poverty and global environmental governance. Country specialty: India.edit
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2 Results Despite rapid economic growth in recent years, India's unemployment problem remains well-entrenched. The National Sample Survey estimated aggregate unemployment at 8.28% on a current daily status (CDS) basis for 2004-05 but... more
2 Results Despite rapid economic growth in recent years, India's unemployment problem remains well-entrenched. The National Sample Survey estimated aggregate unemployment at 8.28% on a current daily status (CDS) basis for 2004-05 but the first survey on employment and unemployment (GoI 2010) estimated unemployment in
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Abstract: This paper extends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected... more
Abstract: This paper extends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL (1, 1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation ...
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This paper has two main objectives. First, it computes capital flight (CF) through trade mis-invoicing from India for the period 1988-2012. India’s trade with 17 major trading partners is considered. We find that CF has accelerated since... more
This paper has two main objectives. First, it computes capital flight (CF) through trade mis-invoicing from India for the period 1988-2012. India’s trade with 17 major trading partners is considered. We find that CF has accelerated since 2004 and particularly sharply since 2007. It peaked at nearly $40 billion in 2008 with the total outflow between 1988 and 2012 exceeding $186 billion. Second, we model the mutual dependence of GDP growth, CF, and various risk factors in a VAR framework. We find that, if left undisturbed, CF through trade mis-invoicing will continue to be high and play a significant and, by its very nature, an uncontrollable macroeconomic role. Hence, reducing, if not eliminating CF, is essential for its own sake as well as for the proper conduct of macroeconomic policy.
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ABSTRACT We use the argument of Lutkepohl (1982), and Ahsan, Kwan, and Sahni (1992) to model causal relation between public expenditure and national income growth in India during the period 1951-1989. The" omitted" variable... more
ABSTRACT We use the argument of Lutkepohl (1982), and Ahsan, Kwan, and Sahni (1992) to model causal relation between public expenditure and national income growth in India during the period 1951-1989. The" omitted" variable considered is the rate of growth of Ml. It is revealed that the pattern of causality is affected by the inclusion of the" omitted" variable. Several empirical hypotheses of significance with regard to these macro/fiscal variables are tested. Implications for policy are also drawn.
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This chapter addresses a persistent tension in current debates over food security, with illustrative data from India. The case allows us to disaggregate concepts in food policy that are often lumped together, so as to better understand... more
This chapter addresses a persistent tension in current debates over food security, with illustrative data from India. The case allows us to disaggregate concepts in food policy that are often lumped together, so as to better understand what is at stake in rapidly changing economies more generally. Despite rising incomes, there has been sustained decline in per capita nutrient intake in India in recent years. The assertion by Deaton and Dreze (2009) that poverty and undernutrition are unrelated is critically examined. A demand-based model in which food prices and expenditure played significant roles proved robust, while allowing for lower calorie “requirements” due to less strenuous activity patterns, life-style changes, and improvements in the epidemiological environment. This analysis provides reasons for not delinking nutrition and poverty; it confirms the existence of poverty-nutrition traps in which undernutrition perpetuates poverty. A new measure of child undernutrition that a...
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For the East Asian countries, the total amount of government debt has risen sharply over the following several years in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the current levels of... more
For the East Asian countries, the total amount of government debt has risen sharply over the following several years in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the current levels of government debt are sustainable for those severely attacked countries, namely, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Under the intertemporal budget constraint model, we test for fiscal sustainability and examine whether there was any discernible change in the behaviour of government debt ...
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This study examines the empirical relationship among inequality, poverty and economic growth in India. Using data on consumption from the 13th to the 55th Rounds of the National Sample Survey, the author computes, for both rural and urban... more
This study examines the empirical relationship among inequality, poverty and economic growth in India. Using data on consumption from the 13th to the 55th Rounds of the National Sample Survey, the author computes, for both rural and urban sectors, the Gini coefficient and three popular measures of poverty. The observed changes in inequality and poverty are explained in terms of the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. A sharp rise in rural and, particularly, urban inequality and only a marginal decline in poverty have characterized the post-reform period. The rise in inequality is explained in terms of an increase in the relative share of output going to capital as compared to labour, a drop in the rate of labour absorption and the rapid growth of the services sector. The rise in inequality has diminished the poverty-reducing effects of higher growth. The reforms have also been characterized by widening regional inequality. This is especially true in the case of the incidence ...
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Using NSS data for 1993-94 and 2004-05 this paper highlights the impact of growing incomes, social and household decisions of households, and regional and ethnic factors on patterns of household level fertility in India. These have helped... more
Using NSS data for 1993-94 and 2004-05 this paper highlights the impact of growing incomes, social and household decisions of households, and regional and ethnic factors on patterns of household level fertility in India. These have helped determine the composition of India’s young (aged 9 to 34) today. Demographic transition is well underway in India with rising incomes associated with fewer children and smaller family size. Households with more women in the age group 26-35 have more children, are more likely to have children than not having them as well as having larger family size. Average education of females lowers household size whereas (instrumented) shares of expenditure on education and health have varying effects. Muslim households have more children and are more likely to have larger family sizes. Households in BIMARU states have more children as do urban households. Thus demographic transition has occurred unevenly across various groups in India.
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A key feature of India’s economic transformation has been a change in the nature of diets. There is a move away from inferior to superior foods and a substitution of traditional staples by primary food products, reflected in higher... more
A key feature of India’s economic transformation has been a change in the nature of diets. There is a move away from inferior to superior foods and a substitution of traditional staples by primary food products, reflected in higher consumption of proteins, sugars, fats and vegetables. As part of this dietary transition, our analysis focuses on the pervasiveness of eating out and is based on a rich household survey for 2005. We broadly confirm the important role of urbanization, demographic changes, expansion of the middle class and its growing affluence on eating out. Since even more deprived sections are not immune to these evolving dietary patterns and given their limited access to medical care, health outcomes may well be grim.
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We discuss characteristics of the spatial distribution of poverty and calorie and protein deficiency in India. Two units of analysis are considered–states and NSS-defined agro-climatic zones. The data used are the NSS Expenditure Surveys... more
We discuss characteristics of the spatial distribution of poverty and calorie and protein deficiency in India. Two units of analysis are considered–states and NSS-defined agro-climatic zones. The data used are the NSS Expenditure Surveys of the 43rd, 50th and 55th rounds. Results on stochastic dominance aas per these criteria are also reported.