- Arizona State University, School of Sustainability, Faculty MemberTechnical University of Denmark (DTU), Department of Management Engineering, Faculty MemberUniversity of Oxford, Saïd Business School, Department Memberadd
- Futures Studies and Foresight, Science Policy, Public Engagement, Emerging Technologies, Organizational Learning, New Media, and 11 moreAnthropology, Politics, Society, Psychology, Environmental Sustainability, Innovation statistics, Expectations, Science and Technology Studies, Computer Networks, Databases, and Softwareedit
This essay explores speculative fashion design as a site of engagement with real an imaginary scenarios of environmental crisis. As an aesthetic form, the essay argues, fashion is uniquely positioned to function as a cultural register of... more
This essay explores speculative fashion design as a site of engagement with real an imaginary scenarios of environmental crisis. As an aesthetic form, the essay argues, fashion is uniquely positioned to function as a cultural register of climate change.
The text appears online as part of the forthcoming book Climates: Architecture and the Planetary Imaginary, published by the Avery Review and Lars Müller Publishers, 2016
The text appears online as part of the forthcoming book Climates: Architecture and the Planetary Imaginary, published by the Avery Review and Lars Müller Publishers, 2016
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Public engagement with science and technology is now widely used in science policy and communication. Touted as a means of enhancing democratic discussion of science and technology, analysis of public engagement with science and... more
Public engagement with science and technology is now widely used in science policy and communication. Touted as a means of enhancing democratic discussion of science and technology, analysis of public engagement with science and technology has shown that it is often weakly tied to scientific governance. In this article, we suggest that the notion of capacity building might be a way of reframing the democratic potential of public engagement with science and technology activities. Drawing on literatures from public policy and administration, we outline how public engagement with science and technology might build citizen capacity, before using the notion of capacity building to develop five principles for the design of public engagement with science and technology. We demonstrate the use of these principles through a discussion of the development and realization of the pilot for a large-scale public engagement with science and technology activity, the Futurescape City Tours, which was...
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Abstract: There is a need for a corrective to the cultural and institutional mindsets that seek to calculate incalculable futures. Plausibility is an undertheorised and illusive concept yet one that critically moves beyond a search for a... more
Abstract: There is a need for a corrective to the cultural and institutional
mindsets that seek to calculate incalculable futures. Plausibility is an undertheorised
and illusive concept yet one that critically moves beyond a search for
a factual encounter with the future. While not assuming that plausibility will
unproblematically lift policy making and technology assessment from failures
of both imagination and prediction, teasing apart the tensions latent in the
concept is helpful and timely. The articles in this special issue ask: is
plausibility another mode of relating to the future that acknowledges an
intrinsically uncertain and contingent future? Does plausibility offer a pathway
away from the pathologies of prediction and probabilistic thinking to create a
more fruitful space to make better decisions? This introductory article describes
the intellectual pursuit of plausibility through a description of the contemporary
conditions that necessitate a revised approach to uncertainty and a historical
account of the rise of probabilistic thinking.
mindsets that seek to calculate incalculable futures. Plausibility is an undertheorised
and illusive concept yet one that critically moves beyond a search for
a factual encounter with the future. While not assuming that plausibility will
unproblematically lift policy making and technology assessment from failures
of both imagination and prediction, teasing apart the tensions latent in the
concept is helpful and timely. The articles in this special issue ask: is
plausibility another mode of relating to the future that acknowledges an
intrinsically uncertain and contingent future? Does plausibility offer a pathway
away from the pathologies of prediction and probabilistic thinking to create a
more fruitful space to make better decisions? This introductory article describes
the intellectual pursuit of plausibility through a description of the contemporary
conditions that necessitate a revised approach to uncertainty and a historical
account of the rise of probabilistic thinking.
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Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of methodological choice... more
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and
probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of
methodological choice possibilities.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English
language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have
arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations
to open up the methodological space available.
Findings – The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature –
and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a
richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities.
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and
probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of
methodological choice possibilities.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English
language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have
arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations
to open up the methodological space available.
Findings – The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature –
and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a
richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties.Scenarios are not intended to be... more
Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties.Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible frameworks for action.Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus?This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario planning in light of conceptual understandings of trust. Such an inquiry highlights that scenarios have value inscriptions and varying degrees of normatively which are indebted to the particularities of their production
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The sociology of the future is an emerging field of inquiry that works to understand future consciousness drawing from a mix of Science & Technology Studies and the practice of foresight. Through an exploration of the theories,... more
The sociology of the future is an emerging field of inquiry that works to understand future consciousness drawing from a mix of Science & Technology Studies and the practice of foresight. Through an exploration of the theories, methodologies, and quagmires of anticipation employed in the study of nanotechnology, this piece introduces the sociology of the future and suggests some ways the field is taking definition. Exploring the future tense provides a means of taking responsibility for what is to come; yet, the movement of the social sciences into the tricky terrain of the future presents tensions. Understanding plausibility, how different communities use anticipatory knowledge, and the performative role of expectations in innovation remain areas of research rich with dilemmas and delights. As social scientists begin to weave their own accounts of futures, they should pay attention to the politics of such rendering.
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Public participation has become standard practice in both environmental communication and science and technology studies, with such engagement increasingly moving “upstream” to the early stages of technological development. One framework... more
Public participation has become standard practice in both environmental communication and science and technology studies, with such engagement increasingly moving “upstream” to the early stages of technological development. One framework for these activities is anticipatory governance, in which foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on—and direct—the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the “NanoFutures” project on ...
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Nanotechnology promises to transform everyday life, yet there has been little reflection about the dilemmas, trade-offs and complex choices involved. Our project constructed a virtual public engagement platform in order to elucidate... more
Nanotechnology promises to transform everyday life, yet there has been little reflection about the dilemmas, trade-offs and complex choices involved. Our project constructed a virtual public engagement platform in order to elucidate perspectives on multiple, plausible visions of human enhancement. Our new media platform operationalized open-source scenario planning to enable diverse communities to assess, critique and debate prospective nanotechnology-enabled products. Extending participation and deliberation through open-source mechanisms was an experiment involving not only an innovation of public engagement but also of traditional scenario planning. By revealing the NanoFutures project design and analysis, this paper explores to what extent this public engagement led to genuine dialogue and illustrates the risks and benefits of using multi-media tools in social science research.
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... I could not revolt. I could not protest. ... Barbara Herr Harthorn is Associate Professor of Feminist Studies, Anthropology & Sociology and Director of the Nanoscale Science and Engineering Center: Center for Nanotechnology in... more
... I could not revolt. I could not protest. ... Barbara Herr Harthorn is Associate Professor of Feminist Studies, Anthropology & Sociology and Director of the Nanoscale Science and Engineering Center: Center for Nanotechnology in Society at University of California at Santa Barbara. ...
... 60 Watson-Verrant, Helen and David Turnbull.Science and other Indigenous Knowledge Systems. Jasanoff, Sheila, Gerald E. Markle ... 168-211 Galer, Graham and Kees van der Heijden.The Learning Organization: How Planners Create... more
... 60 Watson-Verrant, Helen and David Turnbull.Science and other Indigenous Knowledge Systems. Jasanoff, Sheila, Gerald E. Markle ... 168-211 Galer, Graham and Kees van der Heijden.The Learning Organization: How Planners Create Organizational Learning. Marketing ...
The widespread understanding that nanotechnoiogy constitutes an emerging set of science-based technologies with the collective capacity to remake social, economic, and technological landscapes (eg, Crow & Sarewitz, 2001) has, in itself,... more
The widespread understanding that nanotechnoiogy constitutes an emerging set of science-based technologies with the collective capacity to remake social, economic, and technological landscapes (eg, Crow & Sarewitz, 2001) has, in itself, generated tangible outcomes. In the first years of the new millennium, governments around the world created national nanotechnoiogy programs that spent billions of dollars (Roco, 2003), reconfigured institutional arrangements, and constructed new sites for research and development (R&D ...
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The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research will only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where,... more
The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research will only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty about these aspects of climate change and their impacts presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. The Science Museum of Minnesota (SMM) in partnership with the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, and the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA proposes to create a major national touring science exhibition that focuses both on informing the public on what is known about climate change and on how to plan for the future in light of the uncertainties identified above. The scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will...