Simon Huston
Coventry University, Economics Finance and Accounting, Faculty Member
- Real Estate, Sustainable Development, Urban Regeneration, Creative City, Space and Place, Corporate Governance, and 10 moreStrategy, Sustainable Urban Design, Urban Planning, Urban Design, Management Accounting, Military History, Multi Criteria Decision Making, Project Management, Feasibility Study, and Performance Managementedit
- Academic, author, analyst, and accountant - knowledge leadership for a better world. Research: sustainable accountin... moreAcademic, author, analyst, and accountant - knowledge leadership for a better world. Research: sustainable accounting, strategic transformation, urban and property analysis, performanceedit
There seems to be a crisis in education and research. The education landscape looks fragmented, expensive and yet fails millions. A common perception is that, armed with cultural and social capital, the ‘sharp elbows of the middle... more
There seems to be a crisis in education and research. The education landscape looks fragmented, expensive and yet fails millions. A common perception is that, armed with cultural and social capital, the ‘sharp elbows of the middle classes’ game a commodified system to amass credentials. The media rails against learning institutions that inflate grades to cover up failings. Some academics game the system or churn out indigestible papers of negligible practical social impact. In an effort to unravel some of these issues and sketch the future of education and research, the study conducted a preliminary exploratory thematic investigation. First, it chose six credible institutions in the field. A brief review of associated web content chose prominent ‘sound bites’. In Phase II, the author identified relevant journal articles, initially using the search term <Future education research>. The review as neither structured nor systematic but, rather, focused. Finally, in Phase III, the inquiry creatively and interactively grouped the collected secondary martial into themes, underpinned by reflection on decades of embedded teaching experience in a dozen schools or colleges and seven universities. The convenience sampling and judgemental analysis generated ten themes from recent seminal discourse on the future of education and research: TENSION PARADOX, ECOSYSTEM ENRICHMENT, PHRONESIS vs. COMMODIFICATION, ACCESS vs. ELITE CREDENTIALISATION, STRATEGIC COLLABORATION, NURTURING EMOTIONAL & SOCIAL WELLBEING, FUNDING/RECONFIGURING CAPITALISM, JUDICIOUS TECHNOLOGY, INVESTMENT IN PEOPLE, DEMOCRATISING DIALOGUE. The most salient dimensions were PHRONESIS vs. COMMODIFICATION and STRATEGIC COLLABORATION. In effect, much recent managerialist educational reform (notwithstanding its transformative gloss) seems, actually, fundamentally misguided. Second, impactful research in, for example, deep tech, resilience or health calls for strategic interdisciplinary collaboration.
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Every year the global financial system sends trillions of dollars to finance environmental destruction, but the climate crisis forces change. Notwithstanding vested interests and the unrecognised paradox of adopting environmental business... more
Every year the global financial system sends trillions of dollars to finance environmental destruction, but the climate crisis forces change. Notwithstanding vested interests and the unrecognised paradox of adopting environmental business strategies, the implementation of sustainability accounting and reporting (SAR) is imperative to catalyse economic transition away from fossil-fuel and plastic configurations to more sustainable ones. The research proceeded sequentially. First, it scanned the backdrop to the SAR problem and identified key associated institutions and a corpus of recent literature. An initial review to disentangle its conflicting threads generated three themes of 'climate crisis' and 'conservative' or more 'radical' SAR reform paradigms. Iteratively harnessing this thematic lens, the investigation reexamined the SAR literature corpus. It detected fragmented SAR responses to the climate crisis. Accordingly, the research reformulated its first theme to 'dystopic climate crisis fragmentation' but only refined the other two conservative or radical themes to take account of materiality and the split between Anglo-Saxon (IFRS, SSAB) or global and continental institutions (UN, EU, GRI). Conservatives defend incremental standard improvements but retain a single materiality investor-focus. Radicals seek to implement double materiality with a broader spectrum of stakeholders in mind. Both approaches have theoretical as well as pragmatic advantages and disadvantages, so the SAR contention rumbles on. Whilst the standard setting landscape is evolving, division, paradox and contention remain. Given vested interests in the destructive status quo, it would be naïve to expect a harmonious SAR Ithaca to emerge anytime soon. Yet the challenges impel urgent action.
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The Coronavirus pandemic has raised questions about public health system fragility or lack of health phronesis (practical wisdom). The UK is one of the unhealthiest developed nations on the planet with over 35% of its population projected... more
The Coronavirus pandemic has raised questions about public health system fragility or lack of health phronesis (practical wisdom). The UK is one of the unhealthiest developed nations on the planet with over 35% of its population projected to be obese by 2025. Notwithstanding, local sports infrastructure is patchy, raising the spectre of ‘accumulation by dispossession’. To investigate English obesity problem and its eu̯daemonic impediments the study ignored lines of inquiry involving confectionary vested interests. Instead, it focused on bathing amenities that, since antiquity, signal civilisation. The phronetic bathing health research involved five sequential phases. First, the health issue was identified (1) and then bathing facilities put into historical context (2a). A structured literature review of contemporary facilities and health associations (2b) provided the backdrop for subsequent nomothetical (3a-e) and idiographic investigations (4a-c). The mixed research strands were finally synthesised (5). Statistical analysis of English local area standardised mortality (2013-2017) found a significant association with pool sparsity, controlling for deprivation, obesity and other environmental factors (3a-b). Longitudinal time series modelling of English swimming pool construction data since the Victorian era found that, recently, it has become erratic and diverges from its GDP and population growth fundamentals (3c-e). Idiosyncratically, the study considered three case studies, looking for qualitative insights (4). The closure of Bromley Lido in 1983 raises suspicions that short-termism or agency issues usurped public health phronesis (4a). In Cirencester, mistrust lingers about the privileged beneficiaries of local leisure service outsourcing (4b). An exemplary German pool complex in Ludenscheid illuminates comparative UK public bathing infrastructure deficiencies and intimates paradigm myopia or managerialist neglect (4c). Although the study is preliminary with acknowledged limitations, the literature reviews, nomothetic analyses and case studies impel phronetic deliberations to re-calibrate investment towards ecological public health and resilience in post-COVID ‘doughnut’ economy.
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Pandemics and military catastrophes illustrate systems fragility and impel strategic reflection. The French Indochina War (FIW) from 1946-1954 furnishes useful insights with resonance for current infectious, climatic, pollution, economic... more
Pandemics and military catastrophes illustrate systems fragility and impel strategic reflection. The French Indochina War (FIW) from 1946-1954 furnishes useful insights with resonance for current infectious, climatic, pollution, economic and security challenges. Five strategic themes structured an analysis of historical literature. The reasons for the French failure in 1954 involved fundamental regime illegitimacy, political equivocation, intelligence shortcomings, strategic and operational failures but also the determination, strength and adaptability of the Việt Minh (VM). In 1945, France had re-occupied Vietnam to re-assert its global credentials. Later, Cold War logic and American aid sustained “La sale guerre”. However, the conflict merely delayed and bloodied an inevitable post-colonial regime shift. To maintain American aid flows yet retain French regional influence, the commander of the Expeditionary Corps, Henri Navarre, adopted an offensive stance. He sought to crush the VM, breathe life into the moribund French Union (L’Union française) and block Giáp’s feints on Laos. In November 1954, he inserted a fortified camp at remote Diên Biên Phú (DBP). However, Navarre ignored the lessons of Hòa Bình (1950-51), Nghĩa Lộ (1951). He misread Nà Sản (1952) and underestimated VM capabilities. Operationally, the distance of DBP from Hanoi stretched the French aero-logistical system to its limits. Navarre also diverted resources to sideshow – Opération Atlante. Giáp realised Navarre had taken the bait and sealed off the besieged camp with five divisions, including an artillery one. On 13th March, the VM attacked and conquered the garrison after 56 days on the evening of 7-8th May 1954. Navarre’s gamble had spectacularly backfired. Militarily, the French Expeditionary Corps might have recovered even considering the bloodbath at Mang Yang Pass almost seven weeks later. However, the psychological blow unmasked regime financial and political bankruptcy. Power drained away to the Americans or the communists. Whilst French Indochina perpetuated an iniquitous social structure, tainted by racism, symbolic and physical violence, it arguably it also protected minorities, spurned dictatorship and transferred culture and technology.
The most striking finding that emerges from this investigation is the incredible transformation of the geography of Vietnam since 1948. Then, tigers and elephant roamed in jungles, 160km North West of Saigon, near Phan Thiết. Today, suburbia encroaches on depleted coffee plantations and desiccated scrub. Aside from concerns over the long-term ecological trajectories under anthropogenic pressures in ostensibly communist or capitalist inspired systems and, notwithstanding today’s very different context, the detailed investigation into aspects of the War provides strategic metaphors involving fiscal re-calibration, governance hierarchy or incentive regulations, hubristic corrections and ecological transformation.
The most striking finding that emerges from this investigation is the incredible transformation of the geography of Vietnam since 1948. Then, tigers and elephant roamed in jungles, 160km North West of Saigon, near Phan Thiết. Today, suburbia encroaches on depleted coffee plantations and desiccated scrub. Aside from concerns over the long-term ecological trajectories under anthropogenic pressures in ostensibly communist or capitalist inspired systems and, notwithstanding today’s very different context, the detailed investigation into aspects of the War provides strategic metaphors involving fiscal re-calibration, governance hierarchy or incentive regulations, hubristic corrections and ecological transformation.
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Despite a burgeoning literature, the role of bohemians in the urban milieu and in initiatives toward regeneration remains contested. To expedite productive enquiry, we present a thorough literature review, a short commentary on bohemian... more
Despite a burgeoning literature, the role of bohemians in the urban milieu and in initiatives toward regeneration remains contested. To expedite productive enquiry, we present a thorough literature review, a short commentary on bohemian phenomena and suggested readings. Since qualitative sources dominate the field, the review is structured, rather than fully systematic in the scientific sense. It consists of four steps: extraction and refining of references; screening; sorting; and retention for analysis. After discarding irrelevant and incidental papers, three strands remained for subsequent analysis: ‘bohemian’, ‘bohemian + creative-city’ and ‘smart regeneration’. The first is static or historically contextualised, situated best in the humanities. The last two strands are dynamic and dissect, descriptively or analytically, productive bohemians. Wherever and whenever they emerge, these radical artists test existing limits or incite regenerative action.
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The dissemination of robust asset price data can help to improve market efficiency, resource allocation and investment analysis. Land prices influence housing affordability, food security and the carbon infrastructure. Yet price and... more
The dissemination of robust asset price data can help to improve market efficiency, resource allocation and investment analysis. Land prices influence housing affordability, food security and the carbon infrastructure. Yet price and return histories for farmland in England are fragmented. To provide perspective, a long farmland price series is needed to improve transparency and bring the asset class into line with commercial and residential real estate. After reviewing the historical backdrop and considering methodology, this research uses a chain-linking approach to construct a long-term farmland price series for England. It then adjusts the series for inflation to examine real land prices. The resulting two-century English farmland prices series contributes to farmland market analysis. Notwithstanding some concerns with long-run chain component heterogeneity, the combined series helps us to understand English average farmland price dynamics. As measured by the geometric mean, English land price real capital returns have been positive over more than two centuries. Farmland real price growth was 0.33 per cent annually from 1781 to 2013 and 0.71 per cent from 1801 to 2013. The series contributes to an understanding of land price dynamics.
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Purpose – The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature. Design/methodology/approach – The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the... more
Purpose – The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature. Design/methodology/approach – The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the wake of the recent cyclical downturn, interest in cycles has increased. To mitigate future risks, scholars and investors seek new insights for a better understanding of the cyclical phenomenon. The paper presents systematic review of the existing copious cyclical literature. It then discusses general characteristics and the key forces that produce these cycles. Findings – The study finds four major and eight auxiliary cycles. It suggests that each cycle has its own distinct empirical periodicity and theoretical underpinnings. The longer the cycles are the greater controversy which surrounds them. Practical implications – Cycles are monumental to a proper understanding of complex property market dynamics. Their existence implies that economies, whilst...
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Development of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) precincts in the Australian context has been hindered by several obstacles. The main challenges to be addressed are land amalgamation issues around train stations and the lack of... more
Development of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) precincts in the Australian
context has been hindered by several obstacles. The main challenges to be addressed are land amalgamation issues around train stations and the lack of governance arrangements to facilitate the delivery of TODs. This article identifies the main factors contributing to the effective delivery of three Australian TODs. The article is based on the analysis of case studies in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. Based on semi-directed interviews with urban stakeholders (planners at the council level and state level, and developers) for each case study and on the analysis of official planning
documents, we analyse the governance arrangements, the planning frameworks and the financial mechanisms that have facilitated the delivery of the case study TODs. We also survey stakeholders to assess the general TOD delivery process and outcomes on different criteria, to better inform TOD policymaking. We find that large sites in single ownership and special state government measures to facilitate development approvals have been critical factors in TOD success.
context has been hindered by several obstacles. The main challenges to be addressed are land amalgamation issues around train stations and the lack of governance arrangements to facilitate the delivery of TODs. This article identifies the main factors contributing to the effective delivery of three Australian TODs. The article is based on the analysis of case studies in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. Based on semi-directed interviews with urban stakeholders (planners at the council level and state level, and developers) for each case study and on the analysis of official planning
documents, we analyse the governance arrangements, the planning frameworks and the financial mechanisms that have facilitated the delivery of the case study TODs. We also survey stakeholders to assess the general TOD delivery process and outcomes on different criteria, to better inform TOD policymaking. We find that large sites in single ownership and special state government measures to facilitate development approvals have been critical factors in TOD success.
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Sustainable development calls for the wise use of groundwater resources. Of particular concern is saline intrusion into productive agricultural land, which is contiguous with densely populated coastal settlements. To reverse saline... more
Sustainable development calls for the wise use of groundwater resources. Of particular concern is saline intrusion into productive agricultural land, which is contiguous with densely populated coastal settlements. To reverse saline intrusion in such coastal regions, information about the groundwater depth in terms of its spatio-temporal variability is essential. Using survey data from 2004 to 2007, the research revealed the temporal variation characteristics of groundwater depth in the Contemporary Yellow River Delta. It explored the temporal stability characteristics of groundwater depth by using the coefficient of variation, Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and average relative deviation and standard deviation, and confirmed that the representative point reflected the average groundwater depth of the study area. Results showed that spatial variation of the groundwater depth in the study area was medium, but the variation coefficient of groundwater depth showed the seasonal changes. The spatial variation coefficient was largest in the dry season; the other months were relatively stable. The groundwater depth in the study area had strong temporal stability. The correlation between the Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the time lags showed that the spatial pattern of groundwater depth in the study area was similar across two or three years but the similarity weakened beyond this period. The representative points of the whole area showed a good linear correlation, and were spatially concentrated. In different years or time periods, the representative points were not the same but belonged to the medium groundwater depth grade in the area. The study provides useful guidance for Yellow River irrigation, preventing saline intrusion and the restoration of saline-alkali soils. It offers a theoretical basis for identifying regional satellite groundwater depth monitoring points.
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Many global cities are poorly configured to cope with population shifts, climate change and peak oil. Transport-oriented development (TOD) could help reconfigure cities towards sustainability. TOD projects have dual logistical and... more
Many global cities are poorly configured to cope with population shifts, climate change and peak oil. Transport-oriented development (TOD) could help reconfigure cities towards sustainability. TOD projects have dual logistical and place-enhancement functions however, and this ambiguity carries over to form and extent. The allocation, coordination and construction of multiple projects to revamp, connect and beautify can be contentious, complex and expensive. Planning regimes are usually conservative, and have competing ...
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ABSTRACT
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... It largely avoided the interventionist mistakes of Lingah, in Iran, or those of its neighbour,Sharjah.2 2. C. Davidson, Dubai: The Vulnerability ... Particularly salient idiosyncrasies are theShari&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#x27;a legal... more
... It largely avoided the interventionist mistakes of Lingah, in Iran, or those of its neighbour,Sharjah.2 2. C. Davidson, Dubai: The Vulnerability ... Particularly salient idiosyncrasies are theShari&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#x27;a legal tradition although Shari&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#x27;a Court jurisdiction Dubai is limited to all those matters not ...
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Abstract Understanding the dynamics of price premiums is important for property developers, Valuers and investors. This paper assumes two types premium are relevant. First a premium based on current neighbourhood quality and second one... more
Abstract Understanding the dynamics of price premiums is important for property developers, Valuers and investors. This paper assumes two types premium are relevant. First a premium based on current neighbourhood quality and second one based on the conjectured future evolution of neighbourhood quality. Premium neighbourhood quality fundamentals are geospatial. However, neighbourhood information price premiums can become divorced from these geospatial drivers. Property market players may nevertheless ...
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The research investigated the significance of learning dispositif (LD) and emotional attachment (EA) on perceived learning success (LS) across a diaspora of Western, Russian, Asian, Middle Eastern and Chinese student cohorts. Foucault’s... more
The research investigated the significance of learning dispositif (LD) and emotional attachment (EA) on perceived learning success (LS) across a diaspora of Western, Russian, Asian, Middle Eastern and Chinese student cohorts. Foucault’s LD captures the disparate socio-cultural contexts, institutional milieus and more or less didactic teaching styles that moderate learning. EA is a multi-dimensional notion involving affection, connection and passion that emerged in the child psychology and spread to the marketing and other fields. The sequential explanatory research reviewed the learning and EA literature and generated an LD-EA framework to structure its mixed investigations. In 2017 and 2018, researchers collected 150 responses from students via an online questionnaire and classroom surveys. The research used a range of statistical techniques to analyse the data. It found LS varied significantly across cohorts, intimating that dispositifs influence learning. Nonparametric analysis suggested that EA also influenced learning, but regressions were inconclusive. Exploratory techniques hint at a dynamic mix of emotional or cognitive motivations during the student learning journey, involving structural breaks in student/instructor relationships. Cluster analysis identified distinct student groupings, linked to years of learning. Separately, expert interviews suggested frequent teacher interactions can increase EA. The synthesis of quantitative with qualitative results and pedagogical reflection, suggests that LD, teaching presence and student maturity mediates EA’s influence on learning. Key constituents for EA are affection, connection, passion, trust, teaching presence and flow. Finally, whilst awareness of culture and emotions is a useful pedagogical consideration, learning mainstays remain robust educational systems that support well-designed courses with innovative, engaging and trustworthy assessments that differentiate between students.
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Cities are expanding relentlessly, often without adequate transport and other infrastructure. Land Value Capture such as Tax Increment Finance schemes can help plug urban infrastructure gaps and help reduce carbon emissions. However, a... more
Cities are expanding relentlessly, often without adequate transport and other infrastructure. Land Value Capture such as Tax Increment Finance schemes can help plug urban infrastructure gaps and help reduce carbon emissions. However, a diversity of schemes exists with advantages and disadvantages but effective LVC implementation needs supporting policy and institutions.
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This paper suggests that the UK commercial property cycle has a duration of eight years, and shows increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017.
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Cities around the world are under pressure from population growth, frenetic global economic restructuring and climatic perturbations. Some, like London, attract an excess of speculative, momentum or tax-informed inward investment to... more
Cities around the world are under pressure from population growth, frenetic global economic restructuring and climatic perturbations. Some, like London, attract an excess of speculative, momentum or tax-informed inward investment to finance their intensification. Provincial towns, on the other hand, which sustain extractive metropolii, can wither without capital or talent. Sensible planning and calibrated regional investment is the antidote to polarisation but confronts an apparent 'smart' or 'sustainable' conundrum. Grandiose, technical megaprojects like Songdo or Masdar cities or sprawling, disconnected estates are anathema. We articulate a putative smart and sustainable solution ('smart-SUR') with 'institutional', 'project' and innovative 'funding' components and explore mega-urban regeneration projects in the UK and Holland. Smart-SUR has geographical, procedural and teleological aspects. Its mechanism involves local engagement, institutional strengthening, tight project screening and innovative regenerative funding. Its outcome are inclusive, measured and coordinated transformations which 'sweat' existing assets, counter the long-tail of educational failure and catalyse productive local innovation.
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Generals, entrepreneurs and planners aim to dislocate enemies, outsmart competitors or build iconic cities. All advocate a smart strategy but what are its constituents? I seek some cross-disciplinary clarification. A selection of... more
Generals, entrepreneurs and planners aim to dislocate enemies, outsmart competitors or build iconic cities. All advocate a smart strategy but what are its constituents? I seek some cross-disciplinary clarification. A selection of military, business and planning literature is investigated, looking for common themes and a smart strategy framework. Strategic complexity and the limits to generalisation in turbulent times are noted. In the military, overwhelming force confronts asymmetric warfare with deception and carefully-calibrated power projections, conducted at tempo, to confuse and overwhelm the enemy. In business, making money is necessary but insufficient for a 'smart strategy'. Other smart criteria are ethics, delegation, talented people and continuous systems innovation. In urban planning, centralist or dispersed intervention strategies jostle with evolutionary ones but without a final resolution in complex, idiosyncratic cities with adjustment lags and spatial irresolution. Despite context dependency, our multi-disciplinary overview generates some practical business advice. A smart strategy recoils from top-down, techno-centric or managerialist litanies. Clarity of purpose, sound intelligence and judgment orientate the entity and harmonize its activities around key products/markets. Deception confuses and disorientates competitors but needs product support. Flexibility/adaptability balances informed leadership with devolved innovation, underpinned by systems upgrades and talent.
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Many global cities are poorly configured to cope with population shifts, climate change and peak oil. Transport-oriented development (TOD) could help reconfigure cities towards sustainability. TOD projects have dual logistical and... more
Many global cities are poorly configured to cope with population shifts, climate change and peak oil. Transport-oriented development (TOD) could help reconfigure cities towards sustainability. TOD projects have dual logistical and place-enhancement functions however, and this ambiguity carries over to form and extent. The allocation, coordination and construction of multiple projects to revamp, connect and beautify can be contentious, complex and expensive. Planning regimes are usually conservative, and have competing objectives and dislocated organisational architectures. The consequence is often high-risk. The resolution to functional, financial and institutional TOD dispute is de-risking in two modes. In Mode 1, developers and government agencies remain separate but collaborate on an ad hoc basis, contaminated by uplift advocacy. In Mode 2, a Special Purpose Vehicle is formally constituted and risks are distributed more transparently. Given transport and financial constraints in many regional cities, Mode 2, or a public-private TOD partnership (PPP), is appealing but not without danger. PPPs are prone to agency problems while, empirically, their cost-effectiveness track record is mixed. Whatever the mode, coherent spatial development requires cooperation for efficient use of resources.
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Some consider the Emirate of Dubai, within the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a modern Eldorado and blueprint for development. Others question its governance, sustainability and labour practices. Sober judgement of the alternate Dubai... more
Some consider the Emirate of Dubai, within the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a modern Eldorado and blueprint for development. Others question its governance, sustainability and labour practices. Sober judgement of the alternate Dubai narratives stumbles on definitional ambiguities, urban perspective intractability and empirical uncertainty. Definitions of governance and sustainability are particularly contested and presumptions of a universal city blueprint are considered alchemy. Nevertheless, a metaphorical Eldorado is a useful starting point for structured discussion. Acknowledging complexity and data limitations, the paper sketches some likely constituents of a modern Eldorado and then compares it with conditions in the oriental former boomtown. Tentative preliminary indications suggest that Dubai, as many other cities, is overbuilt and unhealthy. Notwithstanding some phantasmagorical projects and scattered architectural icons, disease manifests itself in governance concerns, economic volatility, urban sprawl and social fragmentation. Vectors for disease are excessive regional oil liquidity, constitutional constraints, a narrow commercial focus and institutional limitations. The result: impressive growth is driven by factor accumulation and undermined by overcrowding and pollution. Reforms to the current quasi-feudal modus operandi challenge powerful vested interests in the mercantile Emirate but the global financial crisis could herald beneficial reform.
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Undergraduate valuation and investment textbook
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Military mistakes impel strategic reflection. The French Indochina War (FIW) from 1946-1954 furnishes useful insights with some resonance for current challenges. A combination of pre-exiting conditions, catalysts and operational drivers... more
Military mistakes impel strategic reflection. The French Indochina War (FIW) from 1946-1954 furnishes useful insights with some resonance for current challenges. A combination of pre-exiting conditions, catalysts and operational drivers caused the cathartic 1954 French defeat. Pre-conditions included the illegitimacy of the colonial regime, repression that polarised nationalist sentiment. Economically, pernicious terms of trade suppressed industrialisation but oiled speculation until suddenly reversed by devaluation in 1953 that reflected financial disengagement by France but increased American involvement. Vacillating metropolitan and the dubious colonial regime of the ‘night club’ Emperor, Bảo Đại, fueled political instability. Militarily, after the disastrous evacuation of the RC4 in 1950, Việt Minh men and supplies poured across the Chinese frontier. In 1954, financial constraints and the looming international peace conference catalysed Navarre, the new French commander, to gamble on a battle of attrition. He bet that the Việt Minh would be unable drag artillery to the remote jungle outpost of Diên Biên Phú, but he underestimated their determination, strength, and adaptability. In early December partisans resented the bungled evacuation of Lai Châu. The entrenched camp’s defenses were inadequate and neither infantry sorties nor napalm suppressed VM artillery in the surrounding hills. The French aero-logistical sub-system was overstretched, and significant parachute supplies fell into enemy hands. Navarre scattered his reserves on a futile and remote side show, Operation Atlante. The Americans prevaricated and refused to unleash their B29 fleet. ‘Iacta alea est’ - the die was cast.
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Historical conspectus of urban antiquity in form of novel set in reign or Emperor Justinian. Locations include Alexandria, Constantinople (Chrysopolis), Antioch (Syria), Amida, Daras and Nsibis (Persian frontier district), Durostorum... more
Historical conspectus of urban antiquity in form of novel set in reign or Emperor Justinian. Locations include Alexandria, Constantinople (Chrysopolis), Antioch (Syria), Amida, Daras and Nsibis (Persian frontier district), Durostorum (Danubian frontier), Sarmizegetusa (Dacia), Carthage (Africa Proconsularis) and, in Italy Rome, Capua and Ravenna.
Notwithstanding technological hubris, fads and fashion, the study of antiquity remains relevant. 'In history lies all the secrets of statecraft' Winston Churchill.
Notwithstanding technological hubris, fads and fashion, the study of antiquity remains relevant. 'In history lies all the secrets of statecraft' Winston Churchill.
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Smart urban regeneration is not a destination but a mind-set. It is participatory and responsive with economic, social, environmental and governance dimensions and invokes measured interventions in collaborative institutional networks.... more
Smart urban regeneration is not a destination but a mind-set. It is participatory and responsive with economic, social, environmental and governance dimensions and invokes measured interventions in collaborative institutional networks. Its goal is a ‘smart city’ but this notion remains elusive with multiple, yet unsettled, blueprints. Regulated technological ones contrast with evolving multicultural melting pots. The gestation and propagation of human settlements invokes wider development conundrums. Over the past millennia, anthropogenic activities like farming, manufacturing and settlement construction have transformed Earth at an accelerating pace. Already, remorseless human pressures have significantly depleted biodiversity and, unless tempered, could destabilise the climate. In increasingly populous conurbations, the burden of mal administration and market failure manifests in housing stress, obesity, congestion and air pollution. Philanthropic governments, seeking to shape built environments, confront political wrangling, institutional challenges and resource constraints. Politically, neo and social liberals dispute the level, format and vehicles for intervention to tackle symptoms of urban malaise without compromising freedom or innovation. Smart regeneration, without resolving the conundrum, blends astute processual strategy with evolution in regulated markets. Its realisation involves practical wisdom and partnerships between robust political, commercial and social institutions to select, administer and deliver substantial low-carbon investments or tackle multiple issues at different spatial scales in complex fragmented societies. To conserve or appropriately transform built environments needs ambition, expertise, deliberation, adaptable systems, trust and standards, nurtured by sound policy and continuous learning. As well as the vertical political system with its administrative tiers, the network encompasses horizontal commercial, non-government institutions and bottom-up feedback from local bodies or citizens, empowered by digital technology and land information. Its inspiration is adaptable resilience and graceful extensibility rather than short-term optimality.
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Real property is a dual and semi-public good. Land and buildings are investments, provide or grant access to tangible and intangible housing and urban services but also impact on neighboring communities. Spatial externalities include... more
Real property is a dual and semi-public good. Land and buildings are investments, provide or grant access to tangible and intangible housing and urban services but also impact on neighboring communities. Spatial externalities include visual impacts and service demand engendered by occupants. Buildings are consumption and productive nodes. They consume information, energy, materials and produce waste. Property is the milieu for social and economic interactions. Space conditions the human experience. It nurtures or undermines friendship, facilitates productive work or exploitation and inspires or undermines innovation Philosophically; the cultural meaning and legal rights or obligations associated with property vary with norms and legal practice and reflects social structure and political and economic power. Land and buildings are heterogeneous and the cost of obtaining information about them and the linked bundle of rights and geographical attributes is high. Complex and unique environments surround diverse buildings. Fluctuating capital market conditions compound the complexity of architectural and space markets to influence property value. Prices are an unreliable indicator of asset quality compared with more frequently traded equities. In short, real estate markets are imperfect. A property evaluation or development feasibility assessment must navigate through this complexity. Diagnostics begins with clarity around project perspective, purpose and scope. Project evaluation can be from the public or private standpoints. In either case, assessment involves consultation and robust data collection. Maps provide geographical diagnostic intelligence on administrative boundaries, facilities or blight but other secondary sources inform demographic, transaction or planning analytics. Community consultation and expert interviews or other grounded scuttlebutt investigations enrich analysis. Place insight blends geography, history and critical evaluation of current practices, involving comparative institutional analysis. Development evaluation confronts complexity, information asymmetry and risk. Invariably, it triggers debate between ‘rootedness’ and aspiration, innovation and spatial justice or top-down verses bottom-up approaches. Innovative regeneration, alternate land distributions, legal frameworks, tax and planning regimes sets the scene. The challenge for real estate professionals is to build visionary developments that are both commercially viable and yet mitigate climate change, curb sprawl and foster biodiversity. Idealistically, developments aim to inspire, attenuate social fragmentation and provide a springboard for productive enterprise. Place-rooted regenerative development reigns in the short-term excesses of predatory capitalism, reverses spatial injustice for the ‘common good’ and enhances ecosystem services for the long-term. Legal tradition, local activism, enshrined property rights and regulations limit transformative cack-handedness. Planning procrastination is the downside risk of consultation and the rule of law.
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The Coronavirus pandemic has raised questions about public health system fragility or lack of health phronesis (practical wisdom). The UK is one of the unhealthiest developed nations on the planet with over 35% of its population projected... more
The Coronavirus pandemic has raised questions about public health system fragility or lack of health phronesis (practical wisdom). The UK is one of the unhealthiest developed nations on the planet with over 35% of its population projected to be obese by 2025. Notwithstanding, local sports infrastructure is patchy, raising the spectre of 'accumulation by dispossession'. To investigate English obesity problem and its eu̯ daemonic impediments the study ignored lines of inquiry involving confectionary vested interests. Instead, it focused on bathing amenities that, since antiquity, signal civilisation. The phronetic bathing health research involved five sequential phases. First, the health issue was identified (1) and then bathing facilities put into historical context (2a). A structured literature review of contemporary facilities and health associations (2b) provided the backdrop for subsequent nomothetical (3a-e) and idiographic investigations (4a-c). The mixed research strands were finally synthesised (5). Statistical analysis of English local area standardised mortality (2013-2017) found a significant association with pool sparsity, controlling for deprivation, obesity and other environmental factors (3a-b). Longitudinal time series modelling of English swimming pool construction data since the Victorian era found that, recently, it has become erratic and diverges from its GDP and population growth fundamentals (3c-e). Idiosyncratically, the study considered three case studies, looking for qualitative insights (4). The closure of Bromley Lido in 1983 raises suspicions that short-termism or agency issues usurped public health phronesis (4a). In Cirencester, mistrust lingers about the privileged beneficiaries of local leisure service outsourcing (4b). An exemplary German pool complex in Ludenscheid illuminates comparative UK public bathing infrastructure deficiencies and intimates paradigm myopia or managerialist neglect (4c). Although the study is preliminary with acknowledged limitations, the literature reviews, nomothetic analyses and case studies impel phronetic deliberations to re-calibrate investment towards ecological public health and resilience in post-COVID 'doughnut' economy.
Research Interests: Infrastructure Planning, Public Health, Urban And Regional Planning, Mixed Methods Research, Green Construction, and 6 moreEmotional Intelligence Transformational Leadership, Green Accounting, Defense and Strategic Studies, Public Administration and Policy, Philosophy and Sociology of Learning, and Ecological transformation
... Simon Huston * ... 1454 Within broad strategic and planning guidelines, rule of law constraints and independent oversight, power should devolved to elements of the local community (O'Connor and Stimson 1995; Healy 2000; Kresl... more
... Simon Huston * ... 1454 Within broad strategic and planning guidelines, rule of law constraints and independent oversight, power should devolved to elements of the local community (O'Connor and Stimson 1995; Healy 2000; Kresl 2007; Newman et al. 2009; Yigitcanlar 2009). ...
ABSTRACT Globally, regional cities will bear the brunt of future economic growth. Planning foresight and intelligent policy is needed to dampen malignant growth proclivities and, instead, facilitate sustainable urban development... more
ABSTRACT Globally, regional cities will bear the brunt of future economic growth. Planning foresight and intelligent policy is needed to dampen malignant growth proclivities and, instead, facilitate sustainable urban development (&amp;#39;SUD&amp;#39;). But policy makers can struggle to conceptualise, never mind enforce, a comprehensive approach to SUD. Notwithstanding, it is clear that urban infrastructure or mixed-use building projects need some form of intelligent vetting. One tool for ex ante SUD scrutiny blends a sustainability assessment (&amp;#39;SA&amp;#39;) with a robust project feasibility analysis (&amp;#39;FA&amp;#39;). The research investigates the merits of a blended conceptual framework (&amp;#39;SA-FA&amp;#39;) to evaluate urban construction projects. Its first, sustainable, stage is reflexive strategic and contextualised place consideration, stakeholder dialogue and multi-criteria project review. Next, structural risks are translated into financial ones via financial risk diagnostics and analytics. The framework was tested on a mixed-use development case study in regional England. We found that using SA-FA tightens project analysis but also confirmed the conceptual and practical limitations of multi-criteria vetting and financial modelling to evaluate urban regeneration projects with strategic sustainability and public realm spinoffs in complex, dynamic systems with information asymmetry.
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The role of Real Estate Open Data Systems ('RE-ODS') is investigated by identifying and reflecting on the real estate backdrop, transparency initiatives and issues in Sydney, London and Dubai. Significant capital flows into these iconic... more
The role of Real Estate Open Data Systems ('RE-ODS') is investigated by identifying and reflecting on the real estate backdrop, transparency initiatives and issues in Sydney, London and Dubai. Significant capital flows into these iconic cities has stimulated their housing markets and accentuated their position as global trade, tourism, financial and logistics hubs. However, rapid urban intensification has accentuated housing affordability pressures. The chapter reflects on the extent to which real estate systems in these three metropoli substantively address their respective real estate challenges. It found, first, that the RE-ODS needs to interact with other Spatial Administrative Systems. Second, to attenuate information asymmetry, the RE-ODS needs wide public engagement. Finally, an evolving RE-ODS is underpinned by capable institutions, professional meta-cognition, collaboration and policy learning.
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Generals, entrepreneurs and planners aim to dislocate enemies, outsmart competitors or build iconic cities. All advocate ‘smart strategy’ but what are its constituents? I seek some cross-disciplinary clarification. A selection of... more
Generals, entrepreneurs and planners aim to dislocate enemies, outsmart competitors or build iconic cities. All advocate ‘smart strategy’ but what are its constituents? I seek some cross-disciplinary clarification. A selection of military, business and planning literature is investigated, looking for common themes and a smart strategy framework. Strategic complexity and the limits to generalisation in turbulent times are noted. In the military, overwhelming force confronts asymmetric warfare with deception and carefully-calibrated power projections, conducted at tempo, to confuse and overwhelm the enemy. In business, making money is necessary but insufficient for a smart strategy. Other ‘smart’ criteria are ethics, delegation, talented people and continuous systems innovation. In urban planning, centralist or dispersed intervention strategies jostle with evolutionary ones but without a final resolution in complex, idiosyncratic cities with adjustment lags and spatial irresolution. Despite context dependency, our multi-disciplinary overview generates some practical business advice. A smart strategy recoils from top-down, techno-centric or managerialist litanies. Clarity of purpose, sound intelligence and judgment orientate the entity and harmonize its activities around key products/markets. Deception confuses and disorientates competitors but needs product support. Flexibility/adaptability balances informed leadership with devolved innovation, underpinned by systems upgrades and talent.
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Outlines the regional airport development conundrum (aerotropolis) and sketches pathway for further investigation to determine if it makes sense.
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Should government assume infrastructure risks? If so, how can sound feasibility analysis help avoid white elephant projects?
Research Interests:
Globally, regional cities will bear the brunt of future economic growth. Planning foresight and intelligent policy is needed to dampen malignant growth proclivities and, instead, facilitate sustainable urban development (‘SUD’). But... more
Globally, regional cities will bear the brunt of future economic growth. Planning foresight and intelligent policy is needed to dampen malignant growth proclivities and, instead, facilitate sustainable urban development (‘SUD’). But policy makers can struggle to conceptualise, never mind enforce, a comprehensive approach to SUD. Notwithstanding, it is clear that urban infrastructure or mixed-use building projects need some form of intelligent vetting. One tool for ex ante SUD scrutiny blends a sustainability assessment (‘SA’) with a robust project feasibility analysis (‘FA’). The research investigates the merits of a blended conceptual framework (‘SA-FA’) to evaluate urban construction projects. Its first, sustainable, stage is reflexive strategic and contextualised place consideration, stakeholder dialogue and multi-criteria project review. Next, structural risks are translated into financial ones via financial risk diagnostics and analytics. The framework was tested on a mixed-use development case study in regional England. We found that using SA-FA tightens project analysis but also confirmed the conceptual and practical limitations of multi-criteria vetting and financial modelling to evaluate urban regeneration projects with strategic sustainability and public realm spinoffs in complex, dynamic systems with information asymmetry.
Research Interests:
Income capitalization is a widely used in commercial property for valuation, development appraisal or for project feasibility analysis. As a decision-making tool, its technical and philosophical limitations are manifest but often... more
Income capitalization is a widely used in commercial property for valuation, development appraisal or for project feasibility analysis. As a decision-making tool, its technical and philosophical limitations are manifest but often overlooked. If bungled, capitalization, can lead to ‘white elephant’ projects, investment losses, corporate collapse. To avoid such waste, the research investigates capitalisation technical issues and philosophical conundrums. Sound capitalization practice scopes project and clarifies valuation base(s). Market comparison, risk diagnostics and analytics help render complex data to estimate yields or an appropriate discount rate. For a project feasibility analysis, supplementary salient concerns include wider strategic imperatives, indigenous land rights, stakeholder management, administrative probity and the inclusion of environmental or social spillovers.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT The credit crisis between 2008 and 2009, ensuing property downturn and its wider economic ramifications underscored global financial system imbalances, mispriced risk and, at the firm level, misplaced bets. Information processing... more
ABSTRACT The credit crisis between 2008 and 2009, ensuing property downturn and its wider economic ramifications underscored global financial system imbalances, mispriced risk and, at the firm level, misplaced bets. Information processing capability underpins real estate firm ability to interpret market conditions, penetrate planning complexity, screen out lemons and identify Internet-resistant opportunities. The investment task mandates a robust Asset Information and Capitalisation System (AICS). Notwithstanding the spread of specialised software packages, allowing for automated feasibility analysis, property capitalisation remains a &amp;#39;dark art&amp;#39; and not an exact science because of macroeconomic uncertainty, asset heterogeneity and local market complexity. Conceptually, analysts should distinguish an Investment from a Market Valuation. Operational considerations involve the influence of cycles and market dynamics on model rental yields or project-specific target rates for discounting. The research outlines capitalisation issues and presents a conceptual framework to appraise mixed-use developments. The research motivates further empirical work around actual corporate real estate asset screening, feasibility and valuation practices.
The Oath of Athenian Youth was: 'we will transmit the City
. greater, better and more beautiful than it was transmitted to us' but the form and mechanism of betterment remains contested. Some advocate collective visions, whether... more
The Oath of Athenian Youth was: 'we will transmit the City
. greater, better and more beautiful than it was transmitted to us' but the form and mechanism of betterment remains contested. Some advocate collective visions, whether central or dispersed; others limited 'conservative ...
ABSTRACT Investigates how general systems theory (GST) could contribute to a more rational risk management (RM) for indirect property investment. The paper is organized into three parts. In the first, theoretical one, a robust systems RM... more
ABSTRACT Investigates how general systems theory (GST) could contribute to a more rational risk management (RM) for indirect property investment. The paper is organized into three parts. In the first, theoretical one, a robust systems RM framework is developed. In its second, empirical, section RM policy and practice is reviewed in a selection of prominent real estate entities. Entity policy and performance is analysed and some telephone or face to face interviews are conducted for a sample of key respondents. Responses are then systematically analyzed. The results suggest some disconnect between robust RM theory and actual corporate practice. Finally, a discursive policy section draws out the implications for future robust RM practice in imperfect and turbulent markets. The framework has practical implications for property sector RM development. Recommendations are made to improve RM and, therefore, entity performance and resilience.
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Purpose ‐ The purpose of this paper is to review sustainable planning literature and investigate a major development in an Australian regional city, looking for broad sustainable insights to improve urban growth management.... more
ABSTRACT Purpose ‐ The purpose of this paper is to review sustainable planning literature and investigate a major development in an Australian regional city, looking for broad sustainable insights to improve urban growth management. Design/methodology/approach ‐ First, the authors sketched the backdrop to Ipswich and looked for the drivers propelling its rapid growth. They then generated a sustainability framework from the urban regeneration literature. In the empirical phase, they analysed a major development ‐ the Icon project. They evaluated three of five regeneration domains using secondary sources, site observations and interviews with stakeholders and experts. Findings ‐ First, each city&#39;s situation is unique, so the authors proffer no simplistic development formula. Internally, cities, including Ipswich, are spatially fragmented. Second, urban regeneration extends temporally and spatially beyond the project site boundaries or deadlines. Diminished property-driven regeneration neglects the social dimensions to sustainable housing or relegates it to an afterthought, but community participation is insufficient. Government needs to seed or drive (directly or via incentives) substantive social transformation. Projects supported with credible community social development are less risky, but, in competing for investment funds, local government can rush approve unsuitable projects. Research limitations/implications ‐ The analysis focused on the planning and urban design aspects of the project. Only limited demographic, economic and social analyses were conducted, and the study would also benefit from interviews with a broader sample of experts. Practical implications ‐ Sustainable urban regeneration needs to consider not only the unique mix of regional growth drivers and constraints, but also specific local precinct characteristics. Intelligently configured community consultation should inform but not dilute design leadership. Originality/value ‐ This work investigates appropriate urban responses to growth pressure for sustainable outcomes in fast-growing regional cities.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT The credit crisis between 2008 and 2009, ensuing property downturn and its wider economic ramifications underscored global financial system imbalances, mispriced risk and, at the firm level, misplaced bets. Information processing... more
ABSTRACT The credit crisis between 2008 and 2009, ensuing property downturn and its wider economic ramifications underscored global financial system imbalances, mispriced risk and, at the firm level, misplaced bets. Information processing capability underpins real estate firm ability to interpret market conditions, penetrate planning complexity, screen out lemons and identify Internet-resistant opportunities. The investment task mandates a robust Asset Information and Capitalisation System (AICS). Notwithstanding the spread of specialised software packages, allowing for automated feasibility analysis, property capitalisation remains a &amp;#39;dark art&amp;#39; and not an exact science because of macroeconomic uncertainty, asset heterogeneity and local market complexity. Conceptually, analysts should distinguish an Investment from a Market Valuation. Operational considerations involve the influence of cycles and market dynamics on model rental yields or project-specific target rates for discounting. The research outlines capitalisation issues and presents a conceptual framework to appraise mixed-use developments. The research motivates further empirical work around actual corporate real estate asset screening, feasibility and valuation practices.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT Investigates how general systems theory (GST) could contribute to a more rational risk management (RM) for indirect property investment. The paper is organized into three parts. In the first, theoretical one, a robust systems RM... more
ABSTRACT Investigates how general systems theory (GST) could contribute to a more rational risk management (RM) for indirect property investment. The paper is organized into three parts. In the first, theoretical one, a robust systems RM framework is developed. In its second, empirical, section RM policy and practice is reviewed in a selection of prominent real estate entities. Entity policy and performance is analysed and some telephone or face to face interviews are conducted for a sample of key respondents. Responses are then systematically analyzed. The results suggest some disconnect between robust RM theory and actual corporate practice. Finally, a discursive policy section draws out the implications for future robust RM practice in imperfect and turbulent markets. The framework has practical implications for property sector RM development. Recommendations are made to improve RM and, therefore, entity performance and resilience.
ABSTRACT Infrastructure, such as new power lines or urban renewal projects, disrupts housing consumption services but can enhance investment returns. The paper investigates how disturbance risk appetite varies spatially. It conducts a... more
ABSTRACT Infrastructure, such as new power lines or urban renewal projects, disrupts housing consumption services but can enhance investment returns. The paper investigates how disturbance risk appetite varies spatially. It conducts a preliminary study of two diverse locations in Brisbane, Australia. Risk appetite of peri-urban homeowners is inferred from a focus group study. The risk appetite of centrally-located home buyers is derived from a survey. The results suggest that homeowners in central locations tolerate disturbance better than peri-urban ones, presumably in the expectation of compensating financial gain. The policy implication is that project evaluation should consider the spatial variation of risk appetite.
ABSTRACT
Research Interests:
Undergraduate valuation and investment textbook
Research Interests: Real Estate and Property
... After the dust has settled: Critical neighbourhood factors driving residential property returns in Brisbane during the recent boom 1998-2004. Chhetri, Prem and Huston, Simon (2005). After the dust has settled: Critical neighbourhood ...
As human populations continue to expand and migrate to cities, shortages of appropriate affordable dwellings remains a central challenge. After reviewing the backdrop, conundrums and approaches, the chapter outlines a sustainable... more
As human populations continue to expand and migrate to cities, shortages of appropriate affordable dwellings remains a central challenge. After reviewing the backdrop, conundrums and approaches, the chapter outlines a sustainable management for affordable housing ('SMAH') framework and investigates developing and developed country contexts. Definitions of affordable housing vary but it must be both cheap and meet minimum standards for human dignity and flourishing. Philosophically, the extent of and mechanism for government intervention to influence markets is contested but, for housing supply, it spans political economy, planning policy and collaborative local schemes, supported by a comprehensive Land Administrative System. However, in emerging cities housing and food security are intricately linked. In developed nations, with relatively sophisticated logistics, contested politics and lack of investment constrain affordable housing delivery. Nowadays, technology is central but no system can ever resolve the inherent tensions between informed excellence, commercial gain and environmental protection. Rather than a final blueprint, the SMAH sparks continuous dialogue, multi-criteria reflection and policy learning.
Research Interests:
The configuration of cities, their integrated management and sensible regulation of property and land markets remain pivotal elements for sustainable futures and resilient communities. Smart urban development recognizes the... more
The configuration of cities, their integrated management and sensible regulation of property and land markets remain pivotal elements for sustainable futures and resilient communities. Smart urban development recognizes the interconnection between urban, social, ecological and economic spheres but also requires a robust governance framework, innovation and institutional learning. Unregulated property-led development, on the other hand, can result in sprawl, unstable markets, poor health and depleted ecologies or cultural landscapes. However, preservation, conservation or transformation efforts confront philosophical contention, complexity and institutional and funding constraints. Argument turns on intervention scope or the appropriate balance between public and private realms and the mechanisms to spark, catalyse, incentivise, control and deliver appropriate projects. Future urban visions pit planning utopias against legal precedent, competitive capital markets and practical aspirations of community self-determination. Institutionally, populist impulses, corruption, managerialist bureaucracy or austerity can infect or suppress inspired planning and long-term housing or infrastructure investment. Smart urban development involves multidisciplinary collaboration and widespread consultation. Big data and high-tech decision support systems ('DSS') can be part of the solution but not without administrative competency, civic professionalism and policy learning. Strategic plans should balance logistic infrastructure imperatives with ecological and local considerations. To internalize externalities and balance function with form, developments should consider aesthetics and reflect place character and local views. Urban transformation aspirations include cohesion, green corridors, energy efficient buildings, precinct connectivity, affordable and reasonably stable house prices, resilient utility networks and seamless public transport ones.
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT Investigates how general systems theory (GST) could contribute to a more rational risk management (RM) for indirect property investment. The paper is organized into three parts. In the first, theoretical one, a robust systems RM... more
ABSTRACT Investigates how general systems theory (GST) could contribute to a more rational risk management (RM) for indirect property investment. The paper is organized into three parts. In the first, theoretical one, a robust systems RM framework is developed. In its second, empirical, section RM policy and practice is reviewed in a selection of prominent real estate entities. Entity policy and performance is analysed and some telephone or face to face interviews are conducted for a sample of key respondents. Responses are then systematically analyzed. The results suggest some disconnect between robust RM theory and actual corporate practice. Finally, a discursive policy section draws out the implications for future robust RM practice in imperfect and turbulent markets. The framework has practical implications for property sector RM development. Recommendations are made to improve RM and, therefore, entity performance and resilience.
Research Interests:
The paper reviews prospects for UK property markets using qualitative, technical and fundamental analysis. Media and industry sourced market reports were scanned and evaluated. The research investigated the macro backdrop, housing and... more
The paper reviews prospects for UK property markets using qualitative, technical and fundamental analysis. Media and industry sourced market reports were scanned and evaluated. The research investigated the macro backdrop, housing and equity markets. Qualitative results suggest that Brexit could dampen performance of London office markets in short term but logistics remains boyant. ARIMA inidcates continued residential housing price growth. Saturated modelling using BoE data is problematic due to different regimes ('fear' and 'greed') and uncertain impact of monetary policy. UK’s attractiveness for wealthy foreign buyers endures, underpinned by behavioral, social and fundamental drivers. Behavioral and social ones include salience, emotional attachment, status, business networks, tolerance and cosmopolitan ambiance. Fundamentals ones include security, long-term institutional confidence, build and public realm quality, prospects of currency appreciation, tax and legal advantages.
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The dissemination of robust real estate data can help to improve market efficiency and investment analysis. To provide a perspective on property prices, a long series is vital. While long commercial and residential real estate data series... more
The dissemination of robust real estate data can help to improve market efficiency and investment analysis. To provide a perspective on property prices, a long series is vital. While long commercial and residential real estate data series are available, agricultural land is less well served. Comparable series describing long-term price and return histories for farmland in England are fragmented. We redress this data deficiency after considering the methodological complexities involved. The study employs a chain-linking approach to construct a long-term farmland price series for England. It then adjusts the series for inflation to examine real land prices. The resulting two-century series of English farmland prices establishes a basis for a more efficient farmland market analysis.
Notwithstanding issues around long-run chain component heterogeneity, the combined series illuminates English average farmland price dynamics and changing land market fortunes. For more than two centuries English land price real capital returns were positive. Farmland real price growth was 0.33 per cent annually from 1781 to 2013 and 0.71 per cent from 1801 to 2013 as measured by the geometric mean. The series provides prima facie support for land investment, even when ignoring spatial peri-urban opportunities, rental income or tax advantages.
Notwithstanding issues around long-run chain component heterogeneity, the combined series illuminates English average farmland price dynamics and changing land market fortunes. For more than two centuries English land price real capital returns were positive. Farmland real price growth was 0.33 per cent annually from 1781 to 2013 and 0.71 per cent from 1801 to 2013 as measured by the geometric mean. The series provides prima facie support for land investment, even when ignoring spatial peri-urban opportunities, rental income or tax advantages.
Research Interests:
The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, development has been accompanied by significant real estate prices variance.... more
The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, development has been accompanied by significant real estate prices variance. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which, in turn, are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility and global investment market sentiment. Internally, UAE residential property markets are fragmented by a complex interplay between tenure, building and evolving location characteristics. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic and epistemological issues at play.
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Cities have advocated more compact development patterns to address the need to accommodate a burgeoning urban population. One such compact model is the vertical mixed use (VMU) development. However, its development and implementation are... more
Cities have advocated more compact development patterns to address the need to accommodate a burgeoning urban population. One such compact model is the vertical mixed use (VMU) development. However, its development and implementation are generally perceived to be complicated in terms of unfavourable regulatory and development controls, higher construction cost, staging as well as funding complexities.
We examine the growth patterns and development trends of vertical mixed use developments in Australia with a focus on Brisbane, looking for evidence that the vertical mixed-use model can help realise sustainable futures for Australian cities.
We also reviewed existing urban policies, codes and regulations. Here, our results indicate a slow but growing trend towards the development of VMUs within Brisbane CBD as a result of statutory policies which encourage the integration of mixed use zones within activity centres. Using Hoppenbrouwer and Louw’s (2005) framework we identified and profiled thirteen VMUs. Our results strongly suggest the rampant presence of single function vertical structures (86% of 418) within Brisbane CBD. Only 1.7% of the vertical structures identified accommodated three and 11.9% two uses. Based on these findings, we develop policy recommendations to facilitate the implementation of the VMU model in the Australian context.
We examine the growth patterns and development trends of vertical mixed use developments in Australia with a focus on Brisbane, looking for evidence that the vertical mixed-use model can help realise sustainable futures for Australian cities.
We also reviewed existing urban policies, codes and regulations. Here, our results indicate a slow but growing trend towards the development of VMUs within Brisbane CBD as a result of statutory policies which encourage the integration of mixed use zones within activity centres. Using Hoppenbrouwer and Louw’s (2005) framework we identified and profiled thirteen VMUs. Our results strongly suggest the rampant presence of single function vertical structures (86% of 418) within Brisbane CBD. Only 1.7% of the vertical structures identified accommodated three and 11.9% two uses. Based on these findings, we develop policy recommendations to facilitate the implementation of the VMU model in the Australian context.
Research Interests:
Regional conurbations will play an important role in economic development over the next fifty years but, after decades of neglect, many are ill prepared to cope with impending growth pressures. Some regional settlements aspire to become... more
Regional conurbations will play an important role in economic development over the next fifty years but, after decades of neglect, many are ill prepared to cope with impending growth pressures. Some regional settlements aspire to become 'knowledge hubs' via university expansion. However, the metamorphosis of conservative regional market towns into vibrant knowledge Arcadias confronts institutional, ‘studentification’ and funding constraints. The research investigates regional university expansion issues in two regional English conurbations - Hereford and Cirencester.
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In the conflicted realm of urban strategy one navigates between various ‘smart’ solutions and alternate policy levers. This is not unexpected. Cities are geographically, institutionally and historically unique so simplistic ‘smart city’... more
In the conflicted realm of urban strategy one navigates between various ‘smart’ solutions and alternate policy levers. This is not unexpected. Cities are geographically, institutionally and historically unique so simplistic ‘smart city’ (‘SC’) notions are nonsense. Besides, political priorities change. Istanbul herself provides a vivid example of regime-induced urban evolution. From 330 AD, when Constantine formally founded the city bearing his name , to the present military, administrative, religious and trading pressures influenced her mix of planned or organic growth. In its long history the city transitioned through Geek, Roman, Byzantine, Venetian, Ottoman and Republican phases. At each, the city’s geography and culture were distinct. Abroad, Byzantium image varied with altering perspectives. In the nineteenth century, the Ottoman capital evoked exotic orientalism, if not magic, in the minds of European Romantics. Here, I consider the earlier époque in antiquity looking for insights from regional history to illuminate the notion of ‘smart city’. I investigate parallels between ‘smart’ notions, culled from contemporary urban literature with military and urban history, looking for useful insights or limitations.
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In the face of population, energy and competitive pressures, cities face considerable challenges. Transport Orientated Development (TOD), in a variety of formats, is seen as one solution. TODs are compact, walkable precinct, centred on... more
In the face of population, energy and competitive pressures, cities face considerable challenges. Transport Orientated Development (TOD), in a variety of formats, is seen as one solution. TODs are compact, walkable precinct, centred on train or other public transit systems, which cut traffic congestion but also enhance place identit. However, a conjunction of factors can scuttle timely TOD implementation in practice. First, TODs often struggle to resolve the tension between human-scale form and increased logistical
Research Interests:
The Oath of Athenian Youth was: 'we will transmit the City
. greater, better and more beautiful than it was transmitted to us' but the form and mechanism of betterment remains contested. Some advocate collective visions, whether... more
The Oath of Athenian Youth was: 'we will transmit the City
. greater, better and more beautiful than it was transmitted to us' but the form and mechanism of betterment remains contested. Some advocate collective visions, whether central or dispersed; others limited 'conservative ...
Residential property price premia (‘premia’) have long fascinated investors, particularly in times of euphoria, but their social, climatic and urban ramifications are much wider. A proper understanding of premia is hindered by the variety... more
Residential property price premia (‘premia’) have long fascinated investors, particularly in times of euphoria, but their social, climatic and urban ramifications are much wider. A proper understanding of premia is hindered by the variety of exogenous influences determining them. They occur within idiosyncratic, complex, and continuously reconfiguring metropoli, conditioned by topography, history, regime, commerce, and culture. Given imperfectly competitive housing markets, conventional explanations for premia are either restricted to their financial dissection, trawl though metrics or cast around for hedonic coefficients. However, premia illuminate affordability and other problems in the broader planning and social debate. With the general significance of premia clarified, the research question of the project becomes: ‘What drives residential property price premium evolution in a metropolis?’ A complete answer involves dissecting the nature and establishing the location of putative premia and disentangling the influence and interactions of their various price drivers. To provide it, the project conducts a property and urban literature review. Based on theory’s insight that higher order contains lower order systems, it develops and investigates a general systems model of residential premia with two modes. The system is conditioned by ideology but forced by population and capital inflows. Within it, premia mutate, influenced by a nested hierarchy of more or less contaminated information. To investigate the model and its different modes, the project employs tests across system pointers, at the macro, meso (all urban) and micro spatial resolutions. First, the turbulence and permeability of residential property markets to exogenous influences is assessed. The project then looks at the urban mosaic in the growing Sunbelt migration city of Brisbane, Australia, over the boom period from 1998-2004. Locally, it conducts a case study and survey in one micro-location, seeking clues in transaction patterns (output), property system agents (components) and the information they use (feedback mechanisms). Finally, the project draws some relevant policy implications. Its key findings are that urban housing markets are open, complex and polarised. In an exuberant economic climate, migration and debt fuel metropolitan price escalation. Public urban initiatives reinforce central incumbent affluence or spark fresh bouts of speculation. Individual premia are heterogeneous but often feed off local construction projects or iconic refurbishment. Reflecting their demographics and motives, agent risk appetites are diverse although investors are usually less averse to renewal. System feedback involves a congruence of media and local activity signals. Neither local conviviality nor Bohemian influences are, by themselves, significant. Rather, buyer rationality is validated by post-purchase infrastructure completions. The thesis of this project is, hence, that in euphoric capital markets, migration and debt accelerates the endogenous mutation of property from homes within a community towards speculative paper assets. The implication is that the excessive proliferation of premia indicates economic imbalance and urban malaise which requires recognition and treatment. While premia are paid for perceived privilege or prospects, cognitive risk representations and expectations evolve. Sometimes judgment is contaminated by media fantasy but often validated by accommodating government policy and central revitalisation projects. Yet, within a wider social and ecological remit, rampant premia suggest flaws in urban strategy, governance and planning practice. In terms of windfall events or unearned rent, the cumulative effects of ill-considered projects and price distortions can be ugly and wasteful. They alienate and accentuate spatial privilege without generating sustainable jobs. The project has procedural and substantive policy implications. The dynamics of residential premia cannot be disentangled from capital market volatility, urban fragmentation and reconstitution. Enlightened property development requires visionary urban planning beyond electoral cycles. Rather than unregulated markets or disjointed incrementalism, the project points to the advantages of cohesive projects and inclusive hubs. It impels ecological and people-focused development to nurture capable, connected and considerate edge communities. Its first steps are theoretical recognition, policy clarification, government reform, market constraints, price and tax rationalisation and spatial transparency.
Research Interests:
In this paper we investigate the first stages of one of the largest regional regeneration projects in Australia. Although small by Asian standards, the Icon Project is an office and retail project, leased to the state government which is... more
In this paper we investigate the first stages of one of the largest regional regeneration projects in Australia. Although small by Asian standards, the Icon Project is an office and retail project, leased to the state government which is slated to catalyse revitalisation of Ipswich’s CBD. Ipswich Queensland is rapidly-growing city about 40 kilometres from Brisbane on the Bremer River. Once, due to its navigable access and surface coal, it was a candidate for Queensland’s state capital. But, as traditional industries folded in the 1970s, Ipswich declined economically and socially. The burning of Reids Department Store in 1985, the ill-considered Kern development, suburban retail leakage and a recession accelerated CBD decline. Recently, despite the GFC and floods, the rapid expansion of hydrocarbon prospecting in its western hinterland has lifted confidence in Ipswich’s future. Here, we sketch the backdrop to Ipswich’s growth and reflect on conflicts in planning between short-term ec...
Research Interests:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to sketch the UK housing backdrop, review the student private rented sector (PRS) and assess the experience of post-graduate university student tenants in the PRS. Design/methodology/approach – A... more
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to sketch the UK housing backdrop, review the student private rented sector (PRS) and assess the experience of post-graduate university student tenants in the PRS. Design/methodology/approach – A literature review puts the issues of student-PRS responsiveness into context and helps to untangle some UK housing issues. The private sector’s size, growth and performance is assessed by reviewing secondary data. In-depth interviews were then conducted at a regional university campus. Findings – The study confirms accumulating evidence of an unbalanced UK housing market. The study identified four main PRS issues: first, rapid university expansion without accompanying residential construction has sparked rampant PRS growth with, second, quality issues, third, in tight letting market conditions, rented agent service levels fell and fourth, part of the problem is complex PRS management procedures. Research limitations/implications – The research has thre...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT Development of Transit Oriented Development precincts in the Australian context has been hindered by several obstacles. The main challenges to be addressed are land amalgamation issues around train stations and the lack of... more
ABSTRACT Development of Transit Oriented Development precincts in the Australian context has been hindered by several obstacles. The main challenges to be addressed are land amalgamation issues around train stations and the lack of governance arrangements to facilitate the delivery of TODs. Our paper identifies the main factors contributing to the effective delivery of three Australian TODs. The paper is based on the analysis of case studies in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. Based on semi-directed interviews with urban stakeholders (planners at the council level and state level, and developers) for each case study and on the analysis of official planning documents, we analyse the governance arrangements, the planning frameworks and the financial mechanisms that have facilitated the delivery of the case study TODs. We also survey stakeholders to assess general TOD delivery process and outcomes on different criteria, to better inform TOD policy-making. We find that large sites in single ownership and special state government measures to facilitate development approvals have been critical factors in TOD success.