- United Kingdom
Iain Brown
University of Dundee, Geography and environmental science, Department Member
- The James Hutton Institute, Land Use Systems, Faculty MemberUniversity of York, Stockholm Environment Institute, Faculty Memberadd
- Scientific research and consultancy. Specialist in understanding the effects of Climate Change and designing effective responses. www.summaryhouse.co.ukedit
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Ecosystem services (ES) assessments are relying upon scenarios to explore the impacts of potential land use changes [UK NEA 2011], and to explore the possible land use pathways leading to desirable ES targets (using a normative approach).... more
Ecosystem services (ES) assessments are relying upon scenarios to explore the impacts of potential land use changes [UK NEA 2011], and to explore the possible land use pathways leading to desirable ES targets (using a normative approach). The scenario framework acknowledges the high uncertainty inherent to land use changes [Goodwin and Wright 2010] and a stochastic approach to land use modelling would provide some useful support. Moreover, for ES assessment, land use modelling needs to consider that i) some services are dependent upon fine land use mosaics (e.g. pollination, water quality), ii) decision-making is linked to spatial units, and iii) stakeholders should be involved in scenario development [MEA 2006]. To support these requirements, a vector representation of the landscape linked to decision’s units (e.g. parcels) is deemed relevant; the recent availability of datasets such as LCM2007 [Morton et al. 2011] can support land use modelling at fine spatial scale on national ex...
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... PDF (711 K); Export citation; E-mail article; Highlight keywords on: ... j Centre for Mountain Studies, Perth College UHI, Crieff Road, Perth PH1 2NX, UK. k Department of Sociological Studies, University of Sheffield, Northumberland... more
... PDF (711 K); Export citation; E-mail article; Highlight keywords on: ... j Centre for Mountain Studies, Perth College UHI, Crieff Road, Perth PH1 2NX, UK. k Department of Sociological Studies, University of Sheffield, Northumberland Road, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK. ...
Research Interests: Business, Climate Change, Ecosystem Services, Stakeholder participation, Multidisciplinary, and 10 moreEnvironmental Governance, United Kingdom, Policy Change, Environmental Resource Management, Scenarios, Agricultural intensification, Land Use Policy, Ecosystem service, Environment, and Goods and Services
Decision-making in the coastal zone requires recognition of the complex dynamic interactions occurring between each and all components of the coastal system, both natural and societal. Such awareness represents a key concept in the... more
Decision-making in the coastal zone requires recognition of the complex dynamic interactions occurring between each and all components of the coastal system, both natural and societal. Such awareness represents a key concept in the implementation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), and this in turn is leading to recognition of the need for both increased participation in the decisionmaking process and to develop longer planning horizons. Nevertheless, the complexity of coastal systems means that there are difficulties involved in communicating technical issues to a lay audience as a prelude to their participation in strategic decision-making. Therefore, a critical step in the process is the development of tools that compile, synthesise and communicate information on natural hazards in order to develop effective risk mitigation strategies. In this chapter, we explore a Virtual Reality (VR) approach to meet this challenge, with particular emphasis on communicating the risk associated with coastal erosion in cliff areas up to the year 2100. The case study area is located on the eastern coast of England and features extensive sea cliffs (up to 60 m in height) that extend from Sheringham to Sea Palling in north Norfolk (Figure 12.1). The cliffs are prone to rapid erosion because they consist of thick sequences of poorly-consolidated Quaternary deposits, with typical current erosion rates of the order of 0.5-2 m/year, therefore posing a substantial threat to cliff-top human infrastructure. Climate represents a major driving influence on coastal systems. Although relative sea level has been slowly rising in eastern England for centuries due to land subsidence, a warming climate will most likely lead to an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice (cf. Hulme et al.). It is also probable that patterns of storm activity will become modified, which will impact on coastal areas. Amongst the anticipated impacts, cliff coastlines have been suggested as one of the coastal types that will be sensitive to increased erosion. Coastal planners in the area of study have therefore requested guidance on the demarcation of the possible erosion hazard zone over the coming decades. This will inform an ongoing dialog on future cliff-top development and land use, including possible relocation of infrastructure and other assets.
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Climate change will have pervasive effects on the world’s coasts, but at broad scales these changes have typically proven difficult to analyse in a quantifiable manner. Consequently, individual management decisions are often taken without... more
Climate change will have pervasive effects on the world’s coasts, but at broad scales these changes have typically proven difficult to analyse in a quantifiable manner. Consequently, individual management decisions are often taken without consideration of the wider, regional coastal system with its physical linkages between geomorphological elements.
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National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting... more
National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to th...
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The Tyndall Centre’s Regional Coastal Simulator aims to provide an integrated perspective on the impact of climate change on the coastal zone at the regional (e.g. East Anglian) scale, including taking account of the choices available for... more
The Tyndall Centre’s Regional Coastal Simulator aims to provide an integrated perspective on the impact of climate change on the coastal zone at the regional (e.g. East Anglian) scale, including taking account of the choices available for shoreline management. Coastal geomorphology is fundamental to both prediction and understanding of the ecological and social implications of climate change but the application of process-based modelling at broad-scales remain relatively limited due to the complexity of the systems involved. This project aimed to explore a more deductive methodology for geomorphological analysis at the regional scale incorporating expert knowledge and understanding. This involved the development of a modifiable generic classification capable of including the impacts of different management scenarios - by definition of the active coastal system - and the integration of expert opinion, using the concepts of possibility and probability within fuzzy logic, on the potent...
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Wind energy is identified as having a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emission, and Scottish Government targets for the generation of energy from renewable sources. Public policy emphasises the importance of using an... more
Wind energy is identified as having a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emission, and Scottish Government targets for the generation of energy from renewable sources. Public policy emphasises the importance of using an ecosystem approach, and the role of public engagement in decisions about future uses of land and sea. A prototype 3D model was developed to present a loch with hypothetical wind turbines on the west coast of Scotland. The model was used to identify issues arising between the growing interest marine renewables, land use changes in line with changing policy and the potential effects on existing seascapes and marine industries and activities. An interface has been developed to provide interactive movement of features in models, including hotkeys to: (i) Switching between images (e.g. 1:50,000 map and aerial images) and GIS Data layers (e.g. Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) designations); (ii) Introducing new features (e.g. houses, wind turbines, trees); ...
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Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through... more
Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancin...
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Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk... more
Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation poli...
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This paper explores the ecosystem services associated with woodlands, as they are viewed by individuals in Scotland, with the idea to reconcile objectives for multifunctionality with the legacy of past forestry systems that were not... more
This paper explores the ecosystem services associated with woodlands, as they are viewed by individuals in Scotland, with the idea to reconcile objectives for multifunctionality with the legacy of past forestry systems that were not designed with multifunctionality in mind. Research follows a semi-qualitative route and applies the Q method to identify and explain a range of attitudes among the general public and forestry-associated stakeholders regarding the functional future of forestry in Scotland. Four distinctive groups of attitudes were identified and key factors influencing the attitudinal diversity were explained. Despite the uncovered attitudinal heterogeneity, all groups of attitudes have strong emphasis on native woodland regeneration and on improvement of aesthetic values of woodlands but differ concerning afforestation. An improved understanding of what people think provided an indication of their recognition of ecosystem services types and the trade-offs between these, ...
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Ecosystems are dependent upon the interactions between the natural environment and human factors. Each different ecosystem service is also associated with varying spatial scales related to their functioning and human benefits. Thus, key... more
Ecosystems are dependent upon the interactions between the natural environment and human factors. Each different ecosystem service is also associated with varying spatial scales related to their functioning and human benefits. Thus, key requirements for an ecosystem-based approach (EBA) are i) multiple scales, especially landscape scale, ii) flexible method for adaptive response and iii) stakeholders participation. Understanding complex inter-relationships between ecosystem functions and their services requires tools to handle change and uncertainty, notably scenarios and sensitivity analysis. We propose an iterative approach, which is multi-scale and user- focused based upon the LandSFACTS toolkit to generate a suite of land use change scenarios. The complexity of the scenarios and knowledge of the ecosystem is evaluated and built up through an iterative procedure with stakeholders using spatio-temporal constraints on land use. This method has been used to link climate change impac...
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Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the... more
Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended in...
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Climate change is projected to alter river flows and the magnitude/frequency characteristics of floods and droughts. Ecosystem-based adaptation highlights the interdependence of human and natural systems, and the potential to buffer the... more
Climate change is projected to alter river flows and the magnitude/frequency characteristics of floods and droughts. Ecosystem-based adaptation highlights the interdependence of human and natural systems, and the potential to buffer the impacts of climate change by maintaining functioning ecosystems that continue to provide multiple societal benefits. Natural flood management (NFM), emphasising the restoration of innate hydrological pathways, provides important regulating services in relation to both runoff rates and water quality and is heralded as a potentially important climate change adaptation strategy. This paper draws together 25 NFM schemes, providing a meta-analysis of hydrological performance along with a wider consideration of their net (dis) benefits. Increasing woodland coverage, whilst positively linked to peak flow reduction (more pronounced for low magnitude events), biodiversity and carbon storage, can adversely impact other provisioning service – especially food pr...